Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Canoerebel]

He's really in a quagmire at Pago Pago. He has 800 AV, but the Allies have 550 AV behind four forts. The only chance he has is to choke off supply, and he may be able to do so since he's finally taken and is building nearby Savaii Island. Pago Pago isn't that important to me, except that it keeps drawing him like moth to a flame. He's been there for four months now, committing as many as four cruisers, three battleships, and two carriers. It seems crazy to me.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

He's really in a quagmire at Pago Pago. He has 800 AV, but the Allies have 550 AV behind four forts. The only chance he has is to choke off supply, and he may be able to do so since he's finally taken and is building nearby Savaii Island. Pago Pago isn't that important to me, except that it keeps drawing him like moth to a flame. He's been there for four months now, committing as many as four cruisers, three battleships, and two carriers. It seems crazy to me.

...very strange that with all the LCUs Japan has in scen 2 after 6 months he can only bring 800 AVs to SOPAC...[&:]

[Canoerebel]

He could bring more, but that's at the far end of his LOC and Allied shore guns keep ripping apart his merchantmen. So he is reluctant to bring more. Part of that is Allied operations in Burma and China that required the attention of major IJ reinforcements. And I have to assume he has a massive army waiting to strike Sumatra. (Doesn't he?)

[witpqs]

BTW CR, I did some testing of Country Codes and emergency reinforcement triggers (there's a thread in scenario design). As I started with a Dec 7th campaign, the Kuriles tests were in winter. Unprepared troops in winter using APs (no xAPs), the disablements upon landing were "OMG" bad. The first test at Paramushiro Jima were no AV (as in zero) remaining active. A later test had about 7 AV remaining of about 135. Other Kuriles/Shakalins bases only disabled about 50%, so I guess the difference was the PJ fortress.

Thought you would like to hear.

[desicat]

[/quote]

NoPac: The Allied fighters at Para are worn out. They are not going to win the air battle in the short term, but the fact that Japan is employing large numbers of fighters here instead of elsewhere is a help. I'm trying to figure out whether to make another run short term, or to instead wait for the situation to change or for winter conditions. If I choose a "wait and see" stance, Wasp and Maryland will remain on station just in case Japan tries an invasion.

IMHO the action in the DEI, Sumatra, China, and just about anywhere else is a sideshow compared to Para. Victories in any or all those other places will still leave the Allies several campaigns and 1000's of miles from the Japanese Home Islands. Winter is your best friend here in late 42 early 43, the potential gain of deploying any extra shipping, fighters, or PP's here will pay larger and quicker dividends than anywhere else in early 43.

[Canoerebel]

If Japan doesn't invade Para before winter, the Allies will really take advantage of that during the winter. Para is indeed critical terrain.

But the war will be won in the DEI. Having a six or eight large airfields in supporting distance of each other, and just a short distance from key IJ bases (Singers, Balikpan, Batavia) is a knife in Japan's guts.

[zuluhour]

I hope the quartermaster is sober or those poor tars might get ice cream instead of woolies!

[ny59giants]

Burma - I would have one of your Command HQs at Chittagong prepping for Magwe. If you decide to launch a counter attack the extra 90% bonus in Assault Value will come in handy.

[Canoerebel]

8/11/42

NYGiants: Thanks for yet another nugget of wisdom. It would be accurate to call NYGiants "Nugget Man." Seriously, he's always tossing in very helpful bits of advice.

CenPac: Showing that my hunches are not always on the mark, the KB pops up midway between Tarawa and Baker Island. Surprisingly, the Allies didn't have any shipping within range, although that can change very quickly if the KB chooses one of several paths that will take it to victims. I think the KB is acting as the anvil while a surface combat TF strikes Allied shipping at Tarawa, which includes a big transport TF (now unloaded and featuring only a few xAP and several xAK). However, if the KB jukes south, I have some scattered transports of low value and some of high value including AP. Fortunately, my biggest concetrations of good shipping, the Vanua Lava transports and the Luganville transports, are well to the east and probably not at risk. SigInt reports a Naval Guard prepping for Ocean Island, which has 190 AV behind four forts. It won't be easy for Japan to reclaim this base, but the complete picture painted here is of a Japan intent on taking control in the Gilberts even though that will take alot of time and effort. The Allied troops in the DEI are very happy about this assessment.

Ndeni: To my surprise, no enemy probes yet at the new Allied base. I still expect something and soon, though there is a slight chance Steve hasn't caught wind of it yet. The Allies have 198 AV ashore, two forts, and both port and airfield 50% to level one.

SoPac: Still no sign of Hiyo/Junyo.

DEI: The Allies ignored daily raids over Padang for weeks, hoping the enemy might get complacent. For several reasons, I chose to insert 100 good fighters today. The results were highly satisfactory as the Allies down 125+ aircraft (mainly Netties and Oscars) while losing only 20. This should halt Japan's raids for a while. I'll withdraw my fighters for about a week, then re-insert them when the troop transports (6th UK Brigade) arrive. One important aspect of this air battle is that morale for each squadron skyrocketed and there was a very nice increase in experience and skill. Hornet and Lexington arrived at Colombo and are upgrading.

Burma: A dance continues as the IJ army besieges Magwe, but doesn't have enough to take the base, especially under daily bombings by Allied 2EB. The Allies deploy single small units to run down various roads to threaten the IJ position with isolation, but thus far Steve hasn't withdrawn.

China: In a about a week, the Allies should have a 3,000-AV army ready to hit a single IJ unit at Ichang.

[Canoerebel]

I forgot to mention that I-121 put three torps into BB Resolution at Oosthaven. The ship suffered moderately-heavy damage. She's disbanded for pierside repairs, and should be okay given the amount of Naval Support at this base. But Oosthaven is at the very front of the front lines, so this is not a particularly healthy place for a damaged capital ship to linger.

[ny59giants]

NYGiants: Thanks for yet another nugget of wisdom. It would be accurate to call NYGiants "Nugget Man." Seriously, he's always tossing in very helpful bits of advice.

Instead of being a character in the movie, "A Yankee in King Arthur's Court" I should be "A Yankee Transplant in Rebel Land." [:D] I have a running joke in my office that I need someone to find a local place (NE Tenn) that can sell me some lox to go along with my bagels and cream cheese for breakfast. So far, no luck after about 6 years.

New Nugget
Cocos Island: This base can support 30k for stacking purposes and port can be built up to 3(0). Since you have a damaged BB in Southern Sumatra, what amount of Naval Support do you have here?? You could fill out and transport the Addu RN BF (125 Naval Support potentially), transfer the big Eastern HQ from Columbo (300 Naval Support), or an American USN BF (I have bought out all 3 BFs from Philippines, rebuilt, and each is 100 Naval Support) to increase your Naval Support here. A damaged ship may need to make port here before going to Colombo or Cape Town for full repair. If not now, then later in the game you may need this base. I don't think Chez will want to send CVs here after prior experiences.

[Canoerebel]

Nuggetman strikes again!

Great ideas, but factor these in, Michael, and see how they might influence the euqation.

First, Cocos Island is currently a level 1 port and level three airfield with a 300 AV garrison. It is safe from all but a concerted enemy invasion, and picket ships will warn of any carrier raid, as unlikely as one would be at this point.

Second, all my engineers are gainfully employed (I wish I had more) at the bases in Sumatra (with some now goig to the islands to the north) plus a few at the line of bases near Kolimo to Ledo. I doubt I'll get Cocos's port-level raised within a year even if I can find more engineers.

Third, is the Eastern Fleet HQ needed more at Colombo, or do you think it's better used at Cocos?

Finally, great idea bout the RN Port Service unit at Diego. I'll move it to Cocos.

[Canoerebel]

I have a Port Service detachment at Cocos with 30 Naval Support.

Also, it looks like the Addu Atoll unit with its Naval Support might work well at Cocos.

[ny59giants]

I would move the BF from Addu, not Diego Garcia to Cocos. [;)] The big Eastern HQ is just an option. Don't know where it would do the most good since Colombo has a size 9 port and repair shipyard.

If you don't have enough engineers, I would strat move a couple of SeaBees to Eastern USA and then allow them to take 40 days to go to Cape Town. Spend the PP, if needed, and move them somewhere.

I was looking at Cocos as a potential emergency port for damaged ships. That's why I would increase Naval Support. Set the port to expand and when you move in the BF from Addu, make sure you have over 20k supply and set it to accept replacements. It will eventually fill out. Adding one or two SB/EAB should help finish the expansion.

EDIT - Do you have a Command HQ on Sumatra??

[Canoerebel]

8/12/42

CenPac: One thing I knew - this turn was going to feature some unpleasantness for the Allies in this region. The KB is in the henhouse, with hens in almost every direction, plus an IJ combat TF was coming for the shipping at Tarawa. To my utter delight, there was little action and what there was favored the Allies. The Japanese 'hammer and anvil" tactic was employed, but failed:

Hammer and Anvil: A CL TF led by Tenyru came in to Tarawa where it tangled with a larger Allied combat TF flagged by CL Trenton. One IJ destroyer went under, the Allies didn't suffer any damage, and the Japanese force turned back, thus leaving the merchantmen unmolested. Thus, there were no damaged or fleeing ships to be smashed against the KB anvil. The KB remained in about the same place, meaning all the shipping to the SW, S, and SE that had altered course to avoid the carriers are that much further from the threat. Very nice!

Ndeni: Still no sign that the enemy is taking notice of this base. A USN three DD TF is going to raid Tulagi, where there is some enemy shipping. If the Japanese continue to seem unaware of the situation at Ndeni, the Allies will consider sliding some transports forward to Vanua Lava as soon as the KB moves away.

SoPac: Still no sign of Hiyo/Junyo. I was "sure" this TF was heading to Ndeni, but it is possible it has retired to replenish sorties or something of the sort.

NoPac: Wasp's F4F squadron is at Adak replacing losses. As soon as that is accomplished, the Allies will be ready to make another supply run into Para.

DEI: The Allies are on the offensive, but I don't think Japan realizes it yet. That's good. Developments:

Billiton Island: 120 AV and a detachment of engineers ashore.

Toabali: 75 AV ashore. By tomorrow, that should be 120 AV. Engineers will arrive in about a week.

Singkep: The Allies are slowly air-transporting a Dutch unit to this island just a few hexes SE of Singapore. Just seven AV to date, but given time the Allies will send about 100 AV here.

Sumatra: Palembang forts just went to level eight. Oosthaven is 7.71. The two enemy divisions (21 and 38) are indeed continuing to advance on Padang. The closest is one hex away and should arrive in about a week. An Indian armored unit (130 AV) just arrived at Padang, so the Allies will try another deliberate attack. 6th UK Brigade transports are perhaps four to five days out, with an even larger troop transport TF just south of Ceylon and about ten days away. 16 Allied SBDs from Djambi sortied against a DD TF at Singapore and put one bomb into Arashio. There was no CAP, an oversight that Steve will address, I'm sure. One enemy sub was heavily damaged at Oosthaven.

Burma: The Allies continue to move troops around, trying to create the appearance of a threat to the flank of the enemy force at Magwe.

China: In two days, a 4,000 AV Chinese army will arrive at the hex south of Ichang.

[Cribtop]

With Palembang forts at eight, imagine the carnage even if Steve comes for the place whole hog. I think the time when Japan can take eastern Sumatra has passed.

[Canoerebel]

I think so too. Thinking over the situation a few days ago, I estimated that Japan now has a 10% chance of winning a campaign for eastern Sumatra. It is within Japan's power, on the other hand, to win a campaign for the Gilberts and vicinity if enough force is commited. I wonder if that's a subconcious thought running through Steve's mind? That he can do something productive in the one theater, while the other doesn't hold a promise of much other than pain. Of coruse, the larger truth is that waging a campaign in CenPac when the DEI is in crisis is the worst thing you can do.

[zuluhour]

newb 2 cents: CR congrats for summer of '42, from the "new comer" eye you have taken advantage of every turn. I think this single aspect cost Chaz since the outbreak of hostilities. Its very easy IMHO to neglect a turn or two here and there and get behind the eight ball against an astute opponent. I am looking forward to the developing storm.

[Canoerebel]

Top Allied pilots as of 8/13/42. Those US Army pilots in 54/57 flying P-39s were in the AVG until it was disbanded on July 4. For the past week or ten days, they have been on duty at Paramushiro, where I'm worried they might fall victim to much larger enemy fighter formations.

[Canoerebel]

Point differential is pretty narrow considering the early date in the game.