Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond

[SierraJuliet]

John   have you kept any records of the success of your submarine arm in this conflict.  Any idea how may I-Boat aces you have wandering around out there?

[SierraJuliet]

How about that... managed to make the top posts on page 62 and 63. 

John I know I've only recently got in on this posting gig and hope my contributions have been worthwhile.  I've been a fan of your AARs for some time having started reading way back when you and Wolfpack were slogging it out.  Great stuff and you have certainly whetted my appetite for getting a PBEM going.  Naturally the desire is to take on the up and down ride of the Japanese  so I've been mulling over how to go about it for sometime.  Anyway my promise to myself for this year is to get going against a real live opponent.  I'm looking forward to it and thanks to you [&o][&o][&o] and many others [&o][&o][&o] out there for the work you put into your AAR as they provide the inspiration to get going myself.  Still trying to figure out where the time will come from though.

Steve

[John 3rd]

Nice thoughts Sir.  Thank you.

I WISH I had kept records of my SS performance.  Am doing this with the First Team AAR though.

Definitely get a PBEM going.  It is a blast and no game is ever the same.  An AAR is good too but takes a lot of time and some serious dedication.  I wish you good luck in those ways...
 

[flaggelant]

Hey John,

I'm a rather new player, after doing nothing for about half a year i've started Pbem'in again,
and i was looking for some info source in the forum, little did i know that this AAR would fold out into
what is probably the most detailed economy guide + a nice few (understatement!!) tactical high performance acts along the way.

It took me weeks to get to the end page, because of limited time in reading time, but most of all; all the info i had
to process in order to get what you guys were actually talking about [X(][X(][X(] (a great thnx to the semi retired economics ministry for that as well!!)

I'm not sure if its encouraging that i learned so much, since it only shows that there is so much more to learn, but it was a great fun to read


I got a couple of Q on the mayor aspects of your war;

* War of attrition;
The war of attrition is hitting hard at the moment, but what were your main points in avoiding one earlier on?
what i counted so far was;
- fight at close distance, and if possible over friendly territory to save pilots if shot down
- turn down some aireal fronts until you get the new plane that might do the trick (i believe you did that over rangoon with tony(?), and in the homelands with frank)
- Keeping up XP over china to minimize losses (does this still happen atm? or are there to many allied fighters around today)
I'm quiet sure i missed out on something and would be very glad to hear more about your vision since you managed to keep XP high trough almost the entire game [&o]

* India;
Seeing all the troops pooring from the english side, doom seems to come harder from the english side rather than the americans atm.
Would you feel that invading india and taking karachi is a must to save the land war from certain desaster during late war?
(i know that the desaster is always coming at some point, but everything seemed to be roling nicely until the english warmachine unfolded at extreme pace)

Knowing what you do now, would it seem logical that in a next BPEM you would take karachi early on and go on from there?


* City hexes;
sidney & canton seem 2 very different battles, canton had only 3,5K suplies in a screenshot just before the battle which will have
been a deciding(? something wrong about that word..[&:]) point in the battle. looking at the time left before anything happened after evacuating OZ would you think it would have been possible to lower the OZ supply level enough for a takeover?


i wasn't sure if this was pm material or something for a post, but figured it kinda fits the learning spirit of the AAR,
so i put it up here, hope you dont mind/ find it bold of me to do so.

thats about it for questions (for now), sorry for my english.. not a real native speaker


Just wanted to add that i absolutely love your next operation
and i hope for great succes (what do you estimate it will do to his supply situation??)

BANZAI!!!!!!!

[USSAmerica]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

ORIGINAL: JeffK

I want a thread locked to John & Dan so we can have WAG's to the target of his push.

My guess is ........................................

How bout we take reader's bets and then--after careful review--I will make the announcement??!! That could actually be fun! Many of you have been long term readers. How well do you know the author of this AAR?

Lurkers--please come up from the muck--and place your bet.

WHERE do you think Japan's Operation Downfall is going???

John, I've been busy and letting my AAR reading get behind. As I am catching up with a cup of coffee this morning, my first instinct from your screenshot of the CV's making their way to Soerabaja was, "He's going to hit Colombo!" [X(]

By the point where this actually get's posted in your AAR, it all might be ancient history, but since you solicited guesses..... [:D]

BTW,

[USSAmerica]

Ha, it seems that my small mind only thinks small thoughts.  [:D]
 
Invasion of India?  [X(]  Good luck, John!

[John 3rd]

Mike,

It is always good for you to jump in and contribute.  I hadn't seen your name pop-up on the forum that much (other then the Thread) and hoped all was well.  Glad you have gotten caught up on the AAR.  It is pretty crazy but I don't have anything to lose at the moment.  I feel like posting the same screenshot EVERY day as the TFs move closer to Ceylon!  We only got one turn in yesterday due to strange email demons consuming a turn in the either.  Am hoping for a turn this morning so I can then show things. 

Watching the last turn was bizarre.  I was on pins-and-needles throughout the search phases!  I was burning incense, praying to Mecca, had my prayer shawl on, sacrificed my cat, some Gregorians Chants were playing, and tried to concentrate on the Force to keep those search planes AWAY from my transports.  It worked...course I need a new cat and will name him Anakin II...

Seriously--good to hear from you...
John
 

[flaggelant]

naming your cat anakin might be a thing to worry about, since he'll probably defect to "the dark side" and give away positions sooner or later [:D]

so john, would you say that taking indian mainland would interrupt supply to his fronts closer to your homelands, or
are you expecting that there is plenty of supply there for him to keep marching (and flying for that matter)?

[John 3rd]

I am working on a written response to your long set of essay-length questions!

My cat is referred to as Annie when he is being cute...Anakin when feisty...and VADER when he is evil!

[John 3rd]

Holy Cats!  I just realized we blew past 70,000 hits on the AAR!  Thanks as always guys...
 

[thegreatwent]

A good read will always get hits John[:)].

I appreciate the work that goes into all AAR's. Good ones especially.

[John 3rd]

Let me respond to flaggelent's questions topic by topic-by-topic. First off the subject of a War of Attrition:


To start with I think a player has to know themselves within this game. 

I am highly aggressive and will push things to the limit as Japan.  Being aggressive doesn’t also mean stupid; however, as it is key to understand when enough is enough.  That moment in this campaign occurred when it dawned on me that I could not take either Brisbane or Sydney Australia.  

Additionally the realization of your opponent’s tactics are very important.  Whereas I am aggressive Dan has always played a highly conservative game and throughout the last 12-15 months I have tried to take advantage of that style.  As stated throughout the last 14 months (from Iwo Jima’s fall) of game time, I have felt that this conservative attitude has enabled me to cobble together a defense several times when it should have been over for the Japanese.  

In this campaign the Japanese avoided a war of attrition up until the massive battles began in Indochina and Malaya.  The war hasn’t been lost in the Pacific but down there.  Yes—I know that Iwo Jima and Sakhalin brought the Home Islands under Strategic Bombardment far earlier then normal but the LBA didn’t truly become dangerous until the advent of the double fighter sweeps from Torio Shima and Iwo Jima.  There is no real defense against that and things are beginning to slip fairly quickly.  Coming back the point though means that yes as a Japanese player you should try to avoid the war of attrition for as long as possible but eventual it will be forced on you.  As soon as that happens the game is done.  Becomes only a matter of time.  

Specific Answers:
1.  Try to fight over your own bases whenever possible to lesson pilot losses.

2.  Be AWARE of your reinforcement and upgrades times.  Your comments are dead-on with Tony and Frank.

3.  The things I have learned in the other AAR with Brad as my partner have truly shown me how little I know about elements of this game.  I speak directly of using Daitai/Sentai training and then using those pilots to keep your frontline units are high experience.  Didn’t know how to do that and it has cost me terribly in this campaign.

4.  My XP has stayed high with Bombers because I have been careful in my use of them and train them predominantly by doing ASW Operations.  Fighters is where I have dropped the ball badly.  USE China if possible.  I cannot right now due to Dan flooding the place with at least 4-500 high performance fighters.  Very good move on his part.

[String]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

As stated throughout the last 14 months (from Iwo Jima’s fall) of game time, I have felt that this conservative attitude has enabled me to cobble together a defense several times when it should have been over for the Japanese.  

I'm sorry but I do feel you are being unfair to your opponent with such a statement. While it's easy to criticize him from your viewpoint you have to understand that you know a lot that he does not and in fact has no way of knowing. Other than making guesses and taking big risks there is little how he could have performed better. Making huge gains in 1944 as allies is great. Losing your edge to a blunder is not, especially if you only have one year left to compensate. Besides he has had your home islands under attack from very early 1944. I'd hardly call the decisions and actions that lead up to that conservative.

[John 3rd]

That is a GREAT comment String.  You are totally correct and I will amend the statement.  This is entirely from the Japanese point-of-view.  Even though Iwo wasn't his original target he DID take it!  Same statement could be applied  to Hokkaido and Sakhalin landings...  Though I sank 300+ ships in these operations he did TAKE critical real estate and set-up victory.

[Q-Ball]

Dan invaded Hokkaido in 1943. I don't think that is playing conservative, that seems pretty darn aggressive to me. I haven't been there the whole game either, but that one seemed pretty aggressive.

[John 3rd]

India;
Seeing all the troops pooring from the english side, doom seems to come harder from the english side rather than the americans atm.  Would you feel that invading india and taking karachi is a must to save the land war from certain desaster during late war?  (i know that the desaster is always coming at some point, but everything seemed to be roling nicely until the english warmachine unfolded at extreme pace)

Knowing what you do now, would it seem logical that in a next BPEM you would take karachi early on and go on from there?

These are excellent questions regarding CBI. 

I have come to several conclusions regarding this theatre:  

1.  The British—American—India—Chinese forces were TERRIBLY used in the real war!  All these units are historical and COULD have been used during the war but were not.  I mean the Japanese drove all the way to Imphal in late-44.   

2.  Truly do not know about invading India though am experimenting with that in the First Team Game.  We shall see if that makes any better progress and has differing results.   

3.  It was a mistake to pull out so many troops from China early in the war.  Once Dan saw what I was doing he then didn’t feel threatened and did the same thing.  Those Chinese HORDES are downright frightening.   

RULE:  NEVER get involved in a land war in Asia!  

4.  I was content to take all of Burma but didn’t move farther north towards Imphal or Ledo.  Perhaps that was a mistake; however, the real losses within this game with Great Britain came from those damned Amphibious Hooks.  Dan has been brilliant in his use of them.  It is solid, good strategy and has been used to devastating effect against the Japanese.

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Dan invaded Hokkaido in 1943. I don't think that is playing conservative, that seems pretty darn aggressive to me. I haven't been there the whole game either, but that one seemed pretty aggressive.

Brad you are also correct in that view. The Hokkaido Landing caught me totally flatfooted. It was a bold--CRAZY--move that failed to keep Hokkaido yet gained him Sakhalin...

That is a comment totally hitting bullseye! Thanks for keeping me honest.

[John 3rd]

October 27th and all is well...

[FeurerKrieg]

3. It was a mistake to pull out so many troops from China early in the war. Once Dan saw what I was doing he then didn’t feel threatened and did the same thing. Those Chinese HORDES are downright frightening.

I think this is one of the main things I do different when I'm playing Japan.

To me, China is the key. I would just about always put a greater priority on neutralizing China before attacking Australia. Australia is far from the Home Islands and China is not. Success in China means extra troops for where ever the Empire is threatened the most in late 43-45. And you don't have to take Chungking, just achieve a stalemate there and you'll be able to pull some troops out later since the odds of the Chinese units breaking out of an urban hex is pretty slim.

Then, not only do you have supply/resources from the whole mainland, you also don't have to worry about tons of Chinese augmenting the British offensives in Burma.

But hey - that is just me.

[John 3rd]

FK---What you speak about is SOOOOOOOO true.  This is why we ARE NOT doing it in The First Team Game.  Lesson learned.