Shattered Vow

[AcePylut]

That's what made Grant so great.... he kept fighting. He was a brawler. That's what the North needed, not a "pretty general"... but one that will take a punch and keep coming.

[JohnDillworth]

Note that I was just south of the HI, in the zone for a dozen very large, well-supplied bases whose squadrons still had their original, trained pilots. In your fleet's location I think he could mount a hurtin' on you (Hong Kong, Canton, Formosa w/4E Kamis), but I wonder if he's invested the aviation support along the China coast that would take? Given the intensity of his aviation preps in the PI I wonder if he has enough aviation support to have lef tit sitting unused in the southern China theater.

Well that's the question here. Miller probably has the aircraft, but perhaps not the base forces to put up determined resistance. It's clear he was diligent about training naval aviation, but what about the Army?
Also, his divisions in the Philippines are going to be pretty hard to move if Canoerebel gets a foothold in China. Fuel imports will also now slow to a trickle so Miller will be dependent on what he has in the bank.

[rtrapasso]

If the ammo changes in mid-war to add proximity fuses I wish someone would explain to me how that works.

Not positive how it works in AE, but in old WITP, after a certain date, the effectiveness of certain AA goes up (relatively dramatically)... this is supposed to be hard coded, i think.

There may be ways to kludge the results, but that might break something else. Unless we ever have a dynamic DB, with values swapping in at key historical dates, I think we're sort of stuck.

Actually, i think there is a way to do this, or maybe several... you could write into the code for various radar devices to improve AA fire, but that would be a major undertaking... probably not going to be done.

Second much easier way is to have upgrades to the AA weapons for the ships: i.e. after a radar system is available for the ship (which isn't literally shown on the ship readout), you upgrade the AA weapons, so a 5"/38 becomes a 5"/38-1944a (or whatever)... the effectiveness of the AA gun goes from say 50 to 100 or something along those lines... you'd have to play around with it a bit, of course. The actual gun itself would be the same, but the effectiveness is increased due to the radar fire control system. This could be done in a mod, or otherwise incorporated into the game if it works well.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: pat.casey

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

The image of him broke, sititng on his front porch, his throat being eaten away by cancer, in constant agony, trying desperately to finish his memoirs before he died (he finished five days before his death) so his widow might have a living, is an American tragedy. The type they don't teach schoolchildren.

In a weird way though, that was the genius of his generalship though. Grant (and sherman) was mentally tough in ways that most of his contemporaries were not. Bad things happened to Grant. He lost his share of battles. He got outmaneuvered. His operations didn't always pan out.

Thing is, Grant kept coming.

Yes, he was a great "recoverer." The problem, at least in his personal life, was he keep putting himself in the position of having to recover. There was no reason he had to have been dead broke with three months to live.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso

If the ammo changes in mid-war to add proximity fuses I wish someone would explain to me how that works.

Not positive how it works in AE, but in old WITP, after a certain date, the effectiveness of certain AA goes up (relatively dramatically)... this is supposed to be hard coded, i think.

There may be ways to kludge the results, but that might break something else. Unless we ever have a dynamic DB, with values swapping in at key historical dates, I think we're sort of stuck.

Actually, i think there is a way to do this, or maybe several... you could write into the code for various radar devices to improve AA fire, but that would be a major undertaking... probably not going to be done.

Second much easier way is to have upgrades to the AA weapons for the ships: i.e. after a radar system is available for the ship (which isn't literally shown on the ship readout), you upgrade the AA weapons, so a 5"/38 becomes a 5"/38-1944a (or whatever)... the effectiveness of the AA gun goes from say 50 to 100 or something along those lines... you'd have to play around with it a bit, of course. The actual gun itself would be the same, but the effectiveness is increased due to the radar fire control system. This could be done in a mod, or otherwise incorporated into the game if it works well.

They may have already done this through the upgrade system. The device lists in AE are massive. I've only spent a little time in the editor, and I don't fully grasp how every field affects every other, and the code in the exec file. It's possible to swap whole devices in and out during the upgrades; it's just not possible so far as I know to swap the data for a specific device on the fly in mid-game.

Radar is part of many of the upgrades in many classes. A lot of it is air and surface search radar upgrades which theoreticlaly affect engagement decisions (but surface fights still close to visual range, and that's affected by lots of variables, especially day/night and weather.) I'm just not sure how FC radar is incoprporated into AA over the timespan of the game. I've finished one complete AI game now, and you said you haven't played much yet. If AA is your bag it might be worth some time to poke around in the editor, look at the upgrades for some favorite ships.

In the thread Unconditional Surrender I posted a scan of my final status screen after the vicotry. Scenario One, Historical, the Japanese lost about 43,000 aircraft (I didn't add them.) 2139 were to flak. A little over 10,000 to ops losses. 26,000 A-to-A. 4500 on the field.

The game is pretty balanced in total in my opinion, even if individual elements can be argued about a lot. I have problems with the lack of R&R for subs, and the extremely rapid repair and turn-around on htem. But, that is balanced in the models by the need, due to DB structure, for them to fire full salvoes when attacking, so they don't have the on-station time they did historically. Combined, the two mostly cancel out. If my A-to-A ratios are high versus flak, does it matter really since I still managed to destroy 43,000 enemy planes?

[Canoerebel]

I've had a chance to look through the map/next turn, now, and I have some tough decisions to make before I enter my moves and send the file to Miller tomorrow morning:
 
I.  Swatow is open and it appears Amoy is also.  I have big armies prepped for both and landing there would really disrupt the Japanese and put the Allies in position to bomb Japan, but I don't think I can chance it for these reasons: 
I.A.  Canton is loaded with aircraft (hundreds) and I'm sure Formosa's fields, which are close to Amoy, are or will be.
I.B.  To supply and reinforce and control shipping in the South China Sea, I have to keep my carrier force intact.  So sailing into the teeth of a hurricane at Swatow could be devastating.
I.C.  As Pat Casey said above, my best course may be to reinforce success.
 
II.  Hainan Island
II.A.  Kiungshan:  Allied fire on D-Day seems to have wiped out the little IJ unit at this base.  The Allies will take the base tomorrow.  It is currently level one port/level two airfield.  It can be built to level four port/level nine airfield  I am changing prep of the units (81st Division, a Marine regiment, plus a tank unit) to Samah so that I can reinforce that attack.  As soon as Kiungshan falls tomorrow, the Allied reinforcements will begin landing there.
II.B.  Samah:  This could be a tough nut to crack short term, but I doubt Miller can effectively reinforce by air, so once the reinforcements arrive from Kiungshan it should fall fairly quickly.  I'll try a probing deliberate attack tomorrow.
 
III.  Kwangchoan:  This coastal China base is lightly garrisoned, but I only have a RCT prepped.  I may go ahead and land and then reinforce with some of the units prepped for Swatow/Amoy.  Not sure yet that Kwangchoan gives me a whole lot - it's between Hanoi and Canton and has a system of bad roads.  But it would be another base to support nearby Hainan.
 
IV.  Vietnam:  Or I could land some troops at Vietnam to coordinate with the Brits and achieve a breakthrough. This is unlikely the more I think of it.
 
V.  IJN Carriers:  I think Miller will send his CVE TF east from the Gulf of Siam toward Manila or even Brunei to extract them from the pocket they are in.  I don't think I have enough fuel to send my carriers after them and it would probably be a wild goose chase.
 
VI.  If I decide to concentrate on Hainan Island/Kwangchoan short term, I can probably get the troops unloaded in no more than four days.  Then most of my carriers and transports can head back to the DEI to replenish and get reinforcements.  It would be a good idea to move before Miller can replensih the KB and then combine his fleet carriers with those isolated CVEs.  My carrier strike aircraft are pretty depleted.
 
As I typed this out, I think I convinved myself that concentrating my forces at Hainan/Kwangchoan is the best plan for the short term.

[Canoerebel]

Bullwinkle, I scanned your aircraft losses as listed in your Unconditional Thread.  Our total (or at least the ratios) are relatively similar for flak, field, and ops losses.  But the a-2-a are completely dissimilar.  In this game, Miller has lost only about 1,000 more aircraft in a-2-a than have I.  We're not that far behind you in this game, where it's October 1944, and total Japanese aircraft lost in the game (including a-2-a) is roughly 22,000 to roughly 20,000 for the Allies.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Bullwinkle, I scanned your aircraft losses as listed in your Unconditional Thread.  Our total (or at least the ratios) are relatively similar for flak, field, and ops losses.  But the a-2-a are completely dissimilar.  In this game, Miller has lost only about 1,000 more aircraft in a-2-a than have I.  We're not that far behind you in this game, where it's October 1944, and total Japanese aircraft lost in the game (including a-2-a) is roughly 22,000 to roughly 20,000 for the Allies.

Interesting. I think one difference might be that I had huge air battles over Burma, for months and months. Very Oscar heavy (150+ waves), and as I got P-47s I sent them there and my ratios in late 1943 were running 6:1 pretty much every day. I also had tons and tons of kami attacks in the last year, and a lot of those were old, slow bomber models (Mavis for example) that my Corsairs ate alive. I didn't have nearly the carrier-to-carrier encounters you have had. The AI left the carriers in port for 1.5 years in the middle of the game when the fuel ran lower, escorts were scarce (I played Scenario One remember), and the subs got good.

Like you, I did not manage pilots at all, once I learned that sending my +80 guys to Traiing Command didn't get them better, only faster. I had enough bodies, even at the end when the B-29s wanted hundreds.

[Canoerebel]

After sleeping on it last night the "consolidate at Hainan Island/Kwangchoan" plan feels right.

1.  The Allies should take the now-undefended port of Kiungshan, Hainan Island, today.  As soon as that is accomplished, the Allies will have a level two airfield (can be built to nine) for local CAP.  The Allies will also land reinforcements for the move on Samah plus supplies.
2.  Thus far during Operation Seven Days the Allies haven't lost any transports through the big carrier battles and the invasion.  A few transports were roughed up on D-Day and I'd like to get them to port.
3.  I'd like to send the carriers and undamaged transports back to the DEI in no more than four days - I want reinforcements ASAP plus replenished missions sorties and replacement aircraft.
4.  It appears that Kwangchoan, a good coastal China city near Hainan Island, is undefended.  The Allies will land a US Army Division and perhaps another equivalent division there beginning tomorrow.  This will pose a threat to the Japanese positions around Hanoi and Wuchow.
5.  Chinese units will begin moving toward the coast - primarily threatening Kanhsien and Wuchow.
6.  UK and allies are still probing in northern Vietnam without much effect yet.
7.  I think most of Malaya is lightly defended.  A mixed force of about 600 AV is moving south, having just taken Pruchap Kiri Kahn at the north end of the peninsula.
8.  Seven Days bypassed many Japanese strongholds - it's fun to see places like Singapore, Palembang, and Saigon with 30 or 40 units each.  If the Allies can consolidate and move forward, most of the places to the rear become largely irrelevant, though I do want to maintain a little pressure in that area in order to roll up Japan's defenses. 
9. The Swatow-prepped troops will remain aboard ship a few more days. After all, I can't unload everybody at one time....and I do want to keep open the option of a sudden move that way if such a move seems prudent.

I think we'll only get one more turn in today and tomorrow due mainly to the July 4 holiday.  Not only is today Independence Day...it's also the day the Army of Northern Virginia begant he retreat from Gettysburg.  [:(]

[:D]

[JohnDillworth]

Be interesting to see Millers strategy. If I were him I would try and interfere with the resupply convoys. This way you carriers will be tied up for a while

[nicwb]

I think we'll only get one more turn in today and tomorrow due mainly to the July 4 holiday. Not only is today Independence Day...it's also the day the Army of Northern Virginia begant he retreat from Gettysburg.

Canoerebel, I recall there is a wonderful William Faulkner quote that says that every Southern boy at 14 has that time when they think of the moment before Pickett's Charge and what might have been.

I guess for strategy gamers the moment never really passes! [8|]

[Canoerebel]

10/10/44 and 10/11/44

Pickett's Charge: Faulkner was right! To this day, I cannot bring myself to watch the Pickett's charge part of the movie, Gettysburg.

Seven Days: Interesting two days. The day the Allied ships begin their withdrawal from China is the day that Miller commits his surface combat ships and his airforce finally decides to fly. Alot happens:

1) An Allied combat TF led by BB Richelieu targets Hong Kong and, on the way, tangles with a combat TF led by BB Musashi. The Allied ships get the better of things, with Musashi left in flames. Later, another IJN TF led by BB Yamashiro is hit by Allied naval aircraft. Yamashiro suffers some damage.
2) The IJN ships and massed waves of LBA including kamikazees savage the transports that had remained behind to unload - this was a considerable number, though it was mainly the xAKs with supplies and that portion of the troops ships carrying the Swatow-portion of the troops (but I think nearly all of the troops were able to unload first). CVE Matanikau went under and a CL or two suffered some damage, but mainly the damage was to merchant vessels.
3) The Allied carriers, combat ships, and most of the empty transports had pulled to the SE and weren't touched. This includes probably 70% of the merchant shipping involved in the invasion.
4) Importantly, Kwangchoan, a good base on the coast of China falls on the first attack. The Allies have 2+ divisions ashore there and it can be "built large" including to a level six port. I'll quickly send a few fighter squadrons here.
5) The Allies have moved three fighter squadrons to Kiungshan's field.
6) Allied attacks at Samah have come off at 1:2 or less, but have inflicted much higher casualties on the Japanese garrison. I think this base will fall within ten days.
7) Supplies are in good shape.
8) Chinese troops continue to advance toward positions from which they may be able to coordinate their attacks with the new Allied lodgement at Kwangchoan.
9) The Allied carriers and transports will retire as quickly as possible to the DEI to replenish and pick up the next wave. The journey home will be the last time of risk (since the carriers are low on aircraft and mission sorties). Once the carriers replenish and escort Wave Two to Hainan Island, I doubt there is anything Japan can do to stop the Allied offensive.
10) The Allied move has really turned the Japanese flank. Miller has to try to stop the Allied advance into China and also has to prepare defenses at places that are suddenly close to the front lines (Taiwan, for instance). He has alot of troops now out of position in Java, Sumatra, Singapore, Borneo and Mindanao, so his task is a big one I think.

[DTurtle]

Congratulations.

Do you have enough forces/air fields available to stop any attempt at evacuating those cut off forces? From looking at the maps, he could evacuate using the route Singapore - Kota Bharu - Cam Ranh Bay - Manila.

I don't know your exact positioning in Vietnam (last picture is quite old), but taking Cam Ranh Bay (using your british troops already in Vietnam/Thailand) would completely cut off all troops to the west of that position.

Your goal is not destroying all enemy troops - its to get close to Japan, while at the same time cutting off all support for Japan. Taking Northern Vietnam does not help you achieving that.

What are your plans for the next move?

[rtrapasso]

if my A-to-A ratios are high versus flak, does it matter really since I still managed to destroy 43,000 enemy planes?

i would say yes, it does matter if your primary aim is to create a "what if" engine.

For instance: given the anemic performance of the Allied AA, Allied players may decide that AA upgrades (and the repair time) are not worth it, nor would it be useful to include high AA value ships in your critical TF... this leads to ahistoric gameplay, etc.

When playing against the AI, these things tend not to matter a lot in the final outcome, perhaps, but i think when playing against human opponents, these things can make a significant difference.

[JohnDillworth]

For instance: given the anemic performance of the Allied AA, Allied players may decide that AA upgrades (and the repair time) are not worth it, nor would it be useful to include high AA value ships in your critical TF... this leads to a historic gameplay, etc.

I always took all the early upgrades as the allies. Also, I would load up my task forces with BB's and high AA value CA's and CL's. Bu after studying the poor AA results throughout the war whats the point? It seems fighters ar the only useful AA defense. I have to figure out another way to use my BB's. The more I look at this the more disappointed I am. What should be a huge, growing advantage for the allies as the war proceeds has been intentionally neutered. AE= Artificial Edition

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso

if my A-to-A ratios are high versus flak, does it matter really since I still managed to destroy 43,000 enemy planes?

i would say yes, it does matter if your primary aim is to create a "what if" engine.

For instance: given the anemic performance of the Allied AA, Allied players may decide that AA upgrades (and the repair time) are not worth it, nor would it be useful to include high AA value ships in your critical TF... this leads to ahistoric gameplay, etc.

When playing against the AI, these things tend not to matter a lot in the final outcome, perhaps, but i think when playing against human opponents, these things can make a significant difference.

Re your last, I disagree, but it is the standard swipe at AI players. The AI makes up for "dumber" logic (although it never gets tired, lazy, or careless in executing its instructions) by having vast reserves of planes, especially at the start.

And take a look at the "AA upgrades." The upgrade cycles work on a lot more than AA. ASW and air search radar for two. Any player who went into 1944-45 with original suites, against a human OR an AI opponent, would be a cretin.

[rtrapasso]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso

if my A-to-A ratios are high versus flak, does it matter really since I still managed to destroy 43,000 enemy planes?

i would say yes, it does matter if your primary aim is to create a "what if" engine.

For instance: given the anemic performance of the Allied AA, Allied players may decide that AA upgrades (and the repair time) are not worth it, nor would it be useful to include high AA value ships in your critical TF... this leads to ahistoric gameplay, etc.

When playing against the AI, these things tend not to matter a lot in the final outcome, perhaps, but i think when playing against human opponents, these things can make a significant difference.

Re your last, I disagree, but it is the standard swipe at AI players. The AI makes up for "dumber" logic (although it never gets tired, lazy, or careless in executing its instructions) by having vast reserves of planes, especially at the start.

And take a look at the "AA upgrades." The upgrade cycles work on a lot more than AA. ASW and air search radar for two. Any player who went into 1944-45 with original suites, against a human OR an AI opponent, would be a cretin.

i play AI (in AE, though still learning) and PBEM (CHS - also still learning [:)] ) - so it is in no way intended as a "swipe" at PBEM players.

Playing PBEM is very different than AI, however.

<edited for typo>

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: DTurtle

Congratulations.

Thanks. I'm very pleased with the outcome of the invasion; at the same time, I'm aware of the gravity of the situation and how much remains to be done to secure, expand, and utilize the new position. Tough fighting ahead.

Do you have enough forces/air fields available to stop any attempt at evacuating those cut off forces? From looking at the maps, he could evacuate using the route Singapore - Kota Bharu - Cam Ranh Bay - Manila.

Miller has been withdrawing troops from Malaya/Sumatra and vicinity for months and used them to reinforce Vietnam strongly. I wish I could have stopped him from doing so, but I couldn't while the KB was still strong and while I didn't really have access to the South China Sea. Now the KB threat is dimished, the Allies have control of the SCS, and the Allies have a big and potential strong position on Hainan Island. Miller can't navigate the SCS when the Allied carriers are present, but he certainly can when their absent (like refueling in the DEI). He'll probably be successful in evacuating alot of his troops.

I don't know your exact positioning in Vietnam (last picture is quite old), but taking Cam Ranh Bay (using your british troops already in Vietnam/Thailand) would completely cut off all troops to the west of that position.

The British and their alllies are stymied in Vietnam at the moment - Saigon, Vinh, Hanoi, and Camranh Bay are strongly defended. I hope one benefit of this invasion is to eventually break through so that the Brits and Americans can join up (with the Chinese assisting) to create a massive army. But that's going to take sometime.

Your goal is not destroying all enemy troops - its to get close to Japan, while at the same time cutting off all support for Japan. Taking Northern Vietnam does not help you achieving that.

You're exactly right. The main effort is to move north in China to take bases and to begin a strategic bombing campaign of the Home Islands. However, the Allies still want to roll up the Japanese positions in Thailand and Malaya with the eventually goal of seizing Singapore. I doubt the Allies will do much against Sumatra or Java unless Miller essentially vacates those islands (possible since they are now of little relevance). There is serious question in my mind whether the Allies will ever move on Mindanao, but I think there's a chance Luzon will become a target.

What are your plans for the next move?

The Allied troops at Kwangchoan will move north toward Pakhoi and even Liuchow to see if opportunities develop. The Chinese are going to sniff around Wuchow. The Brits will continue to push near Vinh. The Allied carriers and empty transports return to the DEI to refuel, replenish, and pick up reinforcements bound for China. While the latter is taking place, the Allies may mount some invasions intended to open up a new and more convenient route into the South China Sea. The Allies have troops prepping for Tawi Tawi, Puerto Princessa, Jolo, Balobac Island, and Jesselton. Taking those will allow Allied ships from DEI to Hainan Island through the channel north of Borneo, rather than South of Borneo.

The Allies can build Samah, Kiungshan, and Kwangchoan airfields to level nine. As soon as they hit level seven, B-29s will begin targeting the Home Islands.

Also, Miller may well decide that he has to throw everything against this new Allied position...or he may determine instead to concentrate on really beefing up the new "front line" areas like Formosa and Okinawa. I don't know yet which way his thinking will go.

[JeffroK]

Miller should realise at some point that you struggle to stand against the Allied steamroller at this point, other than attrition of the Allies, he couldnt win a bg enough battle to have much effect.

I would like to see, and I might suggest it to Andymac to add this as an AI script in Downfall, a carefully navigated sortie of KB & any other major units, into a surprise attack on PH. (Or another important base)

It could create havoc in the rear, and be a suitable "last ride" after a hard fought war.

[FatR]

Congratulations on a successful invasion. I still belive this had a potential for disaster (and looks like Japanese still racked a lot of points by sinking Allied transports - not bad for late 1944), but it seems the audacity of your plan paid off this time, and Allies finally had luck on their side as well. This likely is a second turning point in the game (IMO, the first was Allied breakthrough from Burma, without that you, in all likelyhood still would have been fighting for sealane-controlling bases in Western DEI), although the viability of China as the main route of advance remains to be seen. But certainly this will be interesting.