Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

The most important piece of the puzzle was the need to draw the KB into an engagement early, before the Allied armada got too far from friendly ports and airfields.  I tried to be clever and orchestrate the final battle somewhere near Brunei/Miri, but I got lucky when Miller thought Palembang or Singapore was the target.  He attacked when my ships were still well within Allied controlled territory and the outcome was a major Allied victory.  Once that happened there was really no questions about the outcome of the invasion:  I was nearly certain the beaches would be lightly guarded but, even if not, pre-invasion recon would reveal problems and permit the Allies to withdraw if things didn't look "right."

Still, it is a major operation deep within enemy territory so there were plenty of risks involved.

[Panther Bait]

Canoerebel,

Have you planned out what sort of resupply effort will be necessary to keep B-29s fed and happy from the Hainan area? What sort of supply draw do they require in WitP-AE?

Mike

[paullus99]

Sounds like you still have plenty of carrier support available (and CVE's are pretty expendable assets) - it will be very interesting to see how your opponent responds, whether it will be measured or if he rushes pell-mell (either to throw the kitchen sink at you or just withdraw back to an inner perimeter).

I'd recommend having some rear area troops available just in case you can pick off isolated bases if he does start to pull back.

[JohnDillworth]

Sounds like you still have plenty of carrier support available (and CVE's are pretty expendable assets) - it will be very interesting to see how your opponent responds, whether it will be measured or if he rushes pell-mell (either to throw the kitchen sink at you or just withdraw back to an inner perimeter).

I'd recommend having some rear area troops available just in case you can pick off isolated bases if he does start to pull back.

Don't know what the final KB "body-count" was but I don't think there is enough left to go toe-toe to with the Allied carriers anymore. Miller will just have to pick his spots and hope for a juicy bad of transports of get creative and "hit em where they ain't".
Any idea what Miller has left?

[Canoerebel]

10/14/44 and 10/15/44
 
Thanks for the comments gents.  I'll try to reply in my summary to follow:
 
Operation Seven Ships:  A very interesting turn as Miller continues to commit his combat ships in a furious assault against Allied shipping around Hainan Island.  I think it's exactly what he should do, but it's proving costly to both sides.  IJN combat ships and Japanese LBA continue to really rough up a sizeable number of transports (though I should add most of the invasion transports left the area four days ago and will near Borneo tomorrow).  Several more IJN combat TFs tangled with Allied combat TFs, with both sides taking bloody noses and the Allies emerging victorious (I think).  The Allies lost a CA and two CL with several more cruisers damaged, but the Japanese suffered serious damage to the four CAs committed (Tone, Kumano, Chickuma, and Mogami).  Miller has been very short on cruisers for more than a year now, so this damage is critical and could be decisive.  The extended battle that has taken place from Borneo all the way to China has seen most of the remaining Japanese BBs and CAs take heavy damage; even though most weren't sunk outright, they should be out of the war for months.
 
Carriers:  In this operation the Allies have lost eight CVE with four more damaged.  Allied fleet carriers haven't been touched and two more (Ticonderoga and Constellation) just arrived at Kendari.  The KB suffered heavy damage - while only two CVL and two CV are confirmed "sunk," many more fleet carriers took heavy damage and should be in shipyards for months at a minimum.  Without a doubt Allied carriers now rule the seas, subject only to falling victim to some massive LBA strike, a possiblity I will do my best to avoid.
 
Seven Days on the Ground:  It appears Samah will fall within the week.  Allied engineers are busy building at Kiungshan and Kwangchoan.  There is essentially no possiblity of the Japanese mounting a counter-invasion by sea, so Hainan Island is safe.  The Japanese should be able to mount a vigorous and credible defense of coastal China.
 
Seven Days Logistics:  The Allies brought copious supplies - Kiungshan, for instance, has 200,000+ at the moment with alot more still aboard transports.  I don't have any doubt that the Allies can handle supply of any army offensives in this area plus the B-29 bombing campaign that should begin in a month or so (when airfields reach level seven and higher).  B-29s require frequent down time for servicing, so they're pull on supply doesn't seem outrageous.  Plus, it's easy to keep an island supply since they don't have distant bases that suck supply like happens so often on the mainland.
 
Overall Situation:  The Allied carriers and transports will near the DEI during the next turn, including transiting the straits NORTH of Borneo.  This is taking a bit of a chance, but I'm not too worried.  The transports will load reinforcements at Makassar and Balikpan.  The carriers may need some time at Darwin.  But when everybody is ready to go and the next wave makes for Hainan Island, that should be the straw that breaks the camel's back.  At that point, the carriers can go hunting and can choke off any sea traffic as far as Formosa (they couldn't do so during the invasion because they were out of torpedoes, and mission sorites were low).  This campaign has gutted the Japanese fleet, which is Miller's achilles heel.  His airforces remain strong, but no longer can he equal the Allies at sea.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: FatR

although the viability of China as the main route of advance remains to be seen. But certainly this will be interesting.

I'm looking forward to watching this as well. In my last game I had a British--Indian--Chinese steamroller moving from Hong Kong eastward, trying to get to Shanghai, and it never made it before auto-victory. That southern Chinese tier of bases looks darn inviting, but movement is like molasses, and if you haven't neutralized Formosa the air sniping is extreme. I finally turned inland looking to use the better roads/RRs, but still, I never made it. And I wasn't trying to develop huge air bases/supply dumps for strat bombing.

Yes, going to be an interesting year.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Don't know what the final KB "body-count" was but I don't think there is enough left to go toe-toe to with the Allied carriers anymore. Miller will just have to pick his spots and hope for a juicy bad of transports of get creative and "hit em where they ain't".
Any idea what Miller has left?

While this is still a naval battle problem (and will be, until the Last Day), the balance shifts now to a more naval/land air mix. By CR's thrust into the China theater the Japanese have once again numerous air-response options, with internal lines of communication. Until the Soviets activate (if the game goes that long) Miller's rear is protected, he knows now where the axis of advance will be, he can forget about Java, Sumatra, a Singapore seige, etc. and he can pull what he has into a wall across China, possibly at the longitude of the Pescadores. It's an air war problem; naval is really going to be about re-supply now, and Miller knows where the re-supply has to go into. He'll flood what subs he has left, mine where he can, and kami everything that is old or flown by the ill-trained.

The character of the war changed this week and it's not going back.

[Canoerebel]

Bullwinkle is exactly right in his analysis.  The Allies have punched through and created a new dynamic that will be tough on both sides, methinks.  But make no mistake, this offensive has already reaped tremendous dividends as follows:

1.  The Allies now have bases from which to engage in strategic bombing of the Home Islands (once these bases are built to level seven and up).
2.  The Allies met and clobbered the KB, seriously reducing the Japanese carrier force.
3.  Allied and Japanese combat ships have met in several sharp engagements with the IJN suffering severe losses in CA, CL and DD.  The Allies have also lost ships of those classes, but have plenty more; the IJN, though, was already short.
4.  Rendering Java, Sumatra, Malaya, Vietnam, Borneo, and Mindano largely irrelevant should make it much easier for the Allies to pick up bases in those areas when and if they wish to do so.
5.  Large concentrations of Japanese troops have been cut off and must be retrieved or lost.
6.  Japanese ships can no longer navigate the South China Sea to Borneo, Java, Sumatra, Singapore, etc. without "running the blockade."  To do so carries a threat of being cut off and isolated by Allied carriers.
7.  IJN ships are now safe only in the waters around the Home Islands, as far north as the Kuriles, as far south as Formosa.  They can go east a good way only because the Allies aren't present there, but neither is there anything to gain.

[Bullwinkle58]

Perhaps you've outlined this before, but what is your projected eastern limit as far as China goes? Do you plan on driving for Canton/Hong Kong and stopping? Or not even that far? LBA 4E fatigue is range dependent.

What bases do you see needing to take to have enough air capacity?

Could he still envelope you from the Vietnam side, if he abandoned Singapore/Malaysia and pulled everything north, on foot? Is Bangkok ready for it?

Can he evacuate Sumatra by barge over to Malaysia (anywhere) and leg those guys up into Indo-China too?

[Canoerebel]

1.  China:  Kwangchoan, Kiungshan and Samah can be built to level nine airfields.  That is probably sufficient to permit good strategic bombing of Japan.  However, the Allies will continue to apply pressure and should pick up additional bases - certainly Pakhoi and Wuchow are likely targets.  If the Allies attain total supremacy in the region - and that's not totally out of the question - the Allies will invade ports up the Chinese coast.  But the main plan is to reinforce/reinforce/reinforce and pressure the enemy as much as possible.
 
2.  SEAC:  Yes, the Japanese can apply pressure against the new Allied offensive from the south.  I expect that and really welcome it as it will aid the Allies in the conquest of SEAC bases that should allow the Allies to press for Singapore.  The British and their Allies will probably be enough to handle retreating Japanese units. There are three substantial roadblocks to Japanese advances - British/Allied armies besieging Bangkok, Vinh, and near Hanoi.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

1.  China:  Kwangchoan, Kiungshan and Samah can be built to level nine airfields.  That is probably sufficient to permit good strategic bombing of Japan.  However, the Allies will continue to apply pressure and should pick up additional bases - certainly Pakhoi and Wuchow are likely targets.  If the Allies attain total supremacy in the region - and that's not totally out of the question - the Allies will invade ports up the Chinese coast.  But the main plan is to reinforce/reinforce/reinforce and pressure the enemy as much as possible.

2.  SEAC:  Yes, the Japanese can apply pressure against the new Allied offensive from the south.  I expect that and really welcome it as it will aid the Allies in the conquest of SEAC bases that should allow the Allies to press for Singapore.  The British and their Allies will probably be enough to handle retreating Japanese units. There are three substantial roadblocks to Japanese advances - British/Allied armies besieging Bangkok, Vinh, and near Hanoi.

1. Cool. In particular Samah was a PITA to me. I never took it, and the AI ran kamis from there until I P-51D-swept and it ran out of supply. Still, that base cluster is a fair range haul to the mid- and northern HI, except with B-29s. It'll be interesting.

The fact that it's an island is greatly to your advantage. I took Canton and then HK from the north and west, and started running BIG supply convoys in there from Manila. 100k and up, about weekly. China was so starved for supplies that it all wicked away, over and over, even when I applied the spinners. Long ago there was an obsevation made that Chinese cities might not suck in supply, but LCUs outside the cities would. Well, 80%+ of Chinese forces were in the field, and they were eating well I think. Stick to the islands.

2. I don't know why I thought you had Bangkok. I remember now you hung a left and headed into Vietnam and also down the M. penninsula a bit. If he's willing to sacrifice Singapore now (and it does him little good anymore) he could run a fair number of troops into Bangkok by rail most of the way.

[Canoerebel]

The Allies control the road from Singers to Bangkok - a 600 AV stack just took Prachupa Kiri Kahn (a city perhaps five hexes southwest of Bangkok) and is pursuing the routed Japanese army south.  I don't think there's anything between there and Singapore.  If Miller's army advances north from Singapore, Allied air will hit them all the way.  Plus, the Allied army laying siege to Bangkok is roughly 2000 AV, so Miller's not going past that road block.  The only way Miller is going to get troops out of the region is by air transport and/or using surplus xAK (of which he has hundreds) to "run the gauntlet" from Singers and vicinity to the Philippines or Formosa.

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Bullwinkle, I scanned your aircraft losses as listed in your Unconditional Thread.  Our total (or at least the ratios) are relatively similar for flak, field, and ops losses.  But the a-2-a are completely dissimilar.  In this game, Miller has lost only about 1,000 more aircraft in a-2-a than have I.  We're not that far behind you in this game, where it's October 1944, and total Japanese aircraft lost in the game (including a-2-a) is roughly 22,000 to roughly 20,000 for the Allies.

Interesting. I think one difference might be that I had huge air battles over Burma, for months and months. Very Oscar heavy (150+ waves), and as I got P-47s I sent them there and my ratios in late 1943 were running 6:1 pretty much every day. I also had tons and tons of kami attacks in the last year, and a lot of those were old, slow bomber models (Mavis for example) that my Corsairs ate alive. I didn't have nearly the carrier-to-carrier encounters you have had. The AI left the carriers in port for 1.5 years in the middle of the game when the fuel ran lower, escorts were scarce (I played Scenario One remember), and the subs got good.

Like you, I did not manage pilots at all, once I learned that sending my +80 guys to Traiing Command didn't get them better, only faster. I had enough bodies, even at the end when the B-29s wanted hundreds.

while surely a nice example, you can hardly compare AI game losses with a PBEM and Miller isn´t a newby anyway which would be the only way to come close to the AI´s performance [:D]

And I bet Miller is doing pilot training, therefore it easily explains the more or less 1:1 total losses even in 44. The Japanese fighter ac aren´t that bad, so add in better Japanese pilots than Allied pilots...

[JeffroK]

Dan,

By now you would have a considerable Air Transport Fleet available.

Could it be used to ferry troops around China or IndoChina  so that you can quickly reinforce drives in these areas with "probably" better quality troops.

In addition, by now you should have 1 US Airborne Div plus 1 Para Rgt plus 4-5 Para capable Brit. Bdes. These could be capable of picking up a poorly defended base or,(probably unlikely) an empty base and help turn the ear of the IJA in China (or maybe a base in the PI, is Iolio empty[:D])

[Canoerebel]

10/16/44 and 10/17/44

A refreshingly quiet two days as the Allies consolidate their position in China and the carriers retire to the DEI. See map below for the situation in China and Vietnam. Highlights:

Carriers and Invasion Fleet: Reached a point near Allied-held Tarakan. Most transports and CVE with two combat TF will head to Balikpan. Fleet carriers and the balance of the combat ships will head to Darwin. Fuel is very short at the moment, so getting my ships ready to go again will be a challenge.

China: No sorties by Japanese combat vessels or aircraft, so Miller may be licking his wounds. The Allied army moving west from Kwangchoan has roughed up the small IJA force in its way. It appears that the Allies will take Samah within days - perhaps as soon as tomorrow and no later than three days.

[Grotius]

Great stuff, Canoe! I don't remember seeing any game quite like this one. A treat to watch.

Sorry I've been AWOL; my PC died and I *still* don't have a replacement. But reading your AAR with interest on my iPad.

[Canoerebel]

10/18/42 and 10/19/42
 
A good day for the Allies:
 
Samah:  Falls to the Allies, who then transfer in a P-51 squadron to provide CAP.  Nothing in this game is a sure thing, but Hainan Island is now a big, safe Allied aircraft carrier parked in the northwest South China Sea.
 
Allied Carriers:  The CVEs reached Balikpan and have full compliments of aircraft.  Only about 25% of the TBM squadrons have torpedoes.  I'll try to replenish the stocks, but it isn't absolutely necessary since the KB is only a minimal threat now.  If a threat develops in the South China Sea, the CVEs and the two CVs at Makassar can respond quickly, which is important to my peace of mind.  The fleet carriers are near Makassar on their way to Darwin. 
 
Japanese Intentions:  The Japanese seem to have "shot their wad" - at least temporarily - as there haven't been any surface combat on aircraft sorties during the last four days.  Neither is Miller sending all his ground troops streaming north from their positions in SEAC.  This is a little bit surprising since the next big ground battle will be fought in China.  I wish I knew what he was thinking in this regard.  Perhaps he just wants to hold the big bases (Saigon, Bangkok, Singapore, Palembang, Soerabaja) as long as possible rather than evacuating them to fight somewhere else.  If so, he might be right.
 
Grotius:  I noticed that you hadn't posted in your Haiku AAR in awhile. I'm glad you're able to lurk while your computer is down.
 
Jeffk:  The big US Army airborne unit is sitting pretty at Kiungshan.  The unit is prepping for a Chinese base "up the coast," but I won't use it until I feel like I can commit some additional troops via amphibious assault.  It's possible that the Allies will try more invasions as soon as the carriers and reinforcements arrive - especially if Amoy and/or Swatow remain lightly held.

[vettim89]

Dan, to resurrect the pre-release discussion about AE:


Are you having fun?

You seem to be enjoying yourself

[Canoerebel]

10/20/44 and 10/21/44
 
Vettim:  [:D]  I am having a blast because the contest has been weird and unexpected in so many ways (odd invasions, massive losses, big setbacks, weird successes).  The game is still pretty balanced at the end of '44, so things are pretty tense.  Tense =  competitive = fun.  But it's also frustrating because it's so unlike the real war.  At this point, the Allies lose a sub almost every time they meet an IJ TF with ASW capability (I'm losing four or five a week!) and don't even get me started on the ridiculous level of air parity in the game.  But: [:D]
 
Operation Seven Days:  Two more turns of quiet as the first phase of Operation Seven Days comes to a completion.  The troops are ashore, the primary targets have been taken, and the carriers, combat ships, and most of the empty transports are back in the DEI to pick up the second-wave troops and replenish.  The transports are already loading (mainly at Balikpan).  The CVE TBMs have mostly replenished torpedoes.  The CVE TFs will cover the invasion of Tawi Tawi (near Jolo) over the next few days.  The fleet carriers are between Makassar and Saumlaki and should make Darwin in three or four days.  By the way, the Allies have 134 ships in port at Kiungshan.  These are mostly undamaged ships that can carry the surplus Hainan Island troops to China when the next step takes place (either landing reinforcing troops at Kwanghowan or engaging in a new amphibious operation against Swatow).
 
Madness:  Japanese ships are all over the South China Sea.  I don't know whether they are fleeing Singapore and vicinity or heading from the Home Islands to Brunei, Singapore, etc. to get troops, resources and oil.  Isolated  Japanese troop concentrations are remaining in place rather than heading north to give the Allies battle.  This still perplexes me a bit.
 
Successes:  The Allies took Toabali (on the island just north of Palembang) and landed some troops by fast transport at Tawi Tawi, where reinforcements will land beginning in two days.  Taking the latter base will help the Allies secure the sea passages on the north side of Borneo, which offer a "shortcut" from the DEI to Hainan Island.

[JohnDillworth]

Japanese ships are all over the South China Sea.

I believe you have 2 CV's ready to go. Why not have a Turkey shoot and wade in there and pick up a bunch of small stuff? I don't think there is anything big enough to worry about and you might pick up some gems. Sounds like he split everything into single ship task forces to scatter your efforts. Besides the CV's send every DD you have in single or 2 ship task forces. Your should clean up