Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

I don't think it would be worth the risk to the two CVs. First, they'd have to avoid LBA nests, then they'd face the sub threat, then they'd face the risk of a diminished but not impotent KB.  Miller might lick his chops at a shot at two lonely CVs. 
 
And what would they gain?  They might hammer twenty or thirty transports and other low value ships; then torps would be depleted and the carriers would have to return to base.
 
I think the Allies are better served keeping the fleet carriers together.  The bulk of them just arrived at Darwin and have already replaced most of the lost aircraft.  They need fuel badly, but more is on the way.  If necessary, those carriers plus the two you mentioned can head for the South China Sea.  In any event, I hope to be ready to move in less than ten days.  The carriers will be escorting massive reinforcements.

[Canoerebel]

10/22/44 to 10/25/44
 
Surface Combat:  A strong Allied CA/DD force led by Northampton and three CLs left Kiungshan to look for targets at Hong Kong.  This resulted in a sharp fight with a Japanese CL/DD TF.  The Allies came out the victors as CL Kitikami went under and seven IJN DDs were heavily damaged.  More valuable attrition to the reeling (I think) Japanese Navy.  I'm not sure what those ships were doing at Hong Kong - perhaps protecting transports unloading there.
 
Tawi Tawi:  For some reason my invasion fleet didn't arrive or unload even though it began the two-day turn just one hex distant.  I'll try to figure out what went wrong and then I'll try again.
 
China:  The Japanese are reinforcing coastal bases including Swatow and Amoy.  I think the Allies can blow through anything other than a really strong garrison if - and this is the big question - I dare send an amphibous armada that close to Formosa and that distant from Hainan Island.  But I may be able to do so, because by then the Allied carrier fighter squadrons will be at full strength.
 

[Q-Ball]

I agree; sinking transports is pretty much meaningless, unless there is a specific item you wish to sink on them, like an invasion force or supplies for a critical base.

Turn in your In-box BTW...sorry I've been slow, moving and work all at once kicking my butt.

Better too much work, though, than the alternative these days.....

[Canoerebel]

10/26/44 and 10/27/44
 
Hainan Island:  Japanese strike aircraft sortied in moderate numbers and damaged a few Allied combat ships (a CL or two) at Kiungshan.  This base is already a level three (on the way to nine) with 250 base force present, so the CAP will increase pretty quickly.  Samah's field is already a level four (on the way to nine) with 70 base force present.  Kwangchowan doesn't have any base forces present yet, but that will change shortly.
 
China:  The Allied expeditionary army that landed at Kwangchoan has arrived at Pachoi and will try a probing deliberate attack tomorrow.
 
Tawi Tawi:  The troops are finally landing here.  Opposition is meager, so I exepct the base to fall pretty quickly.  I'm not sure if the Allies will mount any more "quick and easy" invasions before the armada gathers and makes for Hainan Island.  Well, on second thought I might make a quicky stab at Baleboc Island, which is think is vacant.
 
Mantok:  The Allies are reinforcing here and should take this base in a few days.  With the recent fall of Toabali, that will give the Allies both bases on the island just north of Palembang.
 
Malaya:  The small IJA army forced back from Prachupa Kiri Kanh retreated to Victoria Point, opening the road to the south.  Some of the pursuing Allied army will besiege Victoria Point while the rest heads south to see how far they can get.  

[Canoerebel]

10/28/44 and 10/29/44
 
Pakhoi:  The Allied expeditionary force takes this base on the second day of assault.  In the process the defending units were really messed up, which should prevent them from regrouping.  This gives the Allies four big-potential bases that are mutually supporting - Pakhoi, Kwangchowan, Kiungshan and Samah.  Now the Allies have to decide where to go next - inland to threaten Nanning or north to threaten Wuchow.
 
Hainan Island:  More incoming Japanese LBA raids meet with defeat.  Allied CAP knocks down several dozen and no damage is done to the Allied fleet.
 
Malaya:  The Allied army moving south took the vacant base of Chumpion.  Now most of the force will move west to besiege Victoria Point; but part will move south into what I think is the poorly defended middle portion of the peninsula.
 
Tawi Tawi:  This base falls on the second day of Allied attacks.  This helps secure the passageway just north of Borneo, though I still need to take additional bases - probably Balobac (undefended), Jesselton (moderately defended) and Puerto Princessa (moderately defended).
 
Reinforcements:  The fleet carriers departed Darwin for Balikpan.  While torpedo stocks weren't entirely replenished, mission sorties, ammo, and aircraft were.  This force will escort the reinforcement convoys to Hainan Island.  From there the carriers will patrol the area, choking off IJ traffic around Hong Kong/Pescadores and possibly escorting an amphibious move on Swatow or possibly Pescadores (the latter I feel sure is strongly garrisoned, but I haven't done recon yet).

[Canoerebel]

Two things about game balance that currently have me a bit flummoxed:

1)  During World War II, the US Navy lost something like 51 submarines in the Pacific.  In this game, I've already lost 105 - including 15 just this month (October 1944).  I also have at least fifteen more heavily damaged and making their way to port.  The Japanese are tearing up American subs.  The subs are scoring occasional kills, but they're getting the worst of it.

2)  I am running out of land-based American fighters.  At this point, the only American LBA fighters in production are P-51B, P-38L, and P-40N26.  I have one P-51B in the pool and production is 30/month; 46 P-38L in pool at 80/month; 70 P-40N26 in pool at 6/month.  I am out of P-47s and I think those are now out of production.  What's going on?  (naval fighter production is absolutely saturated, so that's not a problem).  Many of my American LBA fighter squadrons are low on aircraft and can't replenish.  It's not like I've suffered disproportionate losses - the Japanese have lost about 3,000 more aircraft than the Allies to date.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Two things about game balance that currently have me a bit flummoxed:

1)  During World War II, the US Navy lost something like 51 submarines in the Pacific.  In this game, I've already lost 105 - including 15 just this month (October 1944).  I also have at least fifteen more heavily damaged and making their way to port.  The Japanese are tearing up American subs.  The subs are scoring occasional kills, but they're getting the worst of it.

I've commented on this several times since Patch 3. I think something changed in the .EXE then, but I was coming into the middle of 1944 or early fall at the same time, so I wasn't sure if what I was seeing was always there waiting for me to get that far and I just hadn't run into it yet.

I've spent some time in the editor and I don't see any radical upgrades to E's and PBs, etc., and there's only one Mark 2 DC in the game, the same specs from 12/7/41 on. If they did something, it was in the .EXE.

I had similar results to you. I lost a sub about every other attack after Patch 3, even in deep water, even with highly experienced crews, even when there was only one crappy escort, like an E. It got so bad that I pulled 50-60 subs off the line and sent them to PH for about four months, sitting them in 25-boat TFs at PH so they wouldn't auto-deploy on me. I found that I lost fewer VPs if I went after merchants with DDs, even with kami attacks and regular LBA, than I did with subs. By the time I sent the boats back forward there were almost no targets left, but I still lost a bunch in 1945. I ended the war having taken out the entire Japanese merchant marine, but I think I lost 150 subs or so, and very few of them were in 1942-1943. Maybe 30-40 at most.

So I can't offer any kind words or hope for relief. I don't know what's going on from mid-1944 onward with ASW hit rates. My ASW escorts certainly didn't get any bonus like this in Patch 3.

[Patbgaming]

I would like to thank you for this amazing AAR ( story ).  I love reading a good book and this has been just as entertaining as any I have read in some time.  It has also provided me with a huge amount of information about the game that you just can't get from reading any manual.  I started reading this after having purchased the game and am currently playing as the Allies against AI Japan.  I'am up to mid August 42 and enjoying it immensely.  I look forward to playing an email game some time in the near future against a real opponent.  I am hoping the information provided here will decrease my learning curve just a bit.
 
Thanks again.

[pat.casey]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Two things about game balance that currently have me a bit flummoxed:

2)  I am running out of land-based American fighters.  At this point, the only American LBA fighters in production are P-51B, P-38L, and P-40N26.  I have one P-51B in the pool and production is 30/month; 46 P-38L in pool at 80/month; 70 P-40N26 in pool at 6/month.  I am out of P-47s and I think those are now out of production.  What's going on?  (naval fighter production is absolutely saturated, so that's not a problem).  Many of my American LBA fighter squadrons are low on aircraft and can't replenish.  It's not like I've suffered disproportionate losses - the Japanese have lost about 3,000 more aircraft than the Allies to date.

I've had a similar experience in games vs the AI e.g. allied production seems much too low. The consensus response I got on the forums was that allied production was "historical" and hence was correct within the confines of the game e.g. if the allied sent 1400 P47s to the pacific in real life and 1400 P47s in the game then we're correctly modelling production.

My personal opinion is that this isn't correct; if the allies needed more planes in the pacific they'd have gotten them, so allied production should be able to slide up to meet demand rather than being fixed at a historical rate.

As it is, the game's replacement rates constrain a player to a historical operational tempo, thus reducing player choice rather than enhancing it.

[Canoerebel]

10/30/44 and 10/31/44
 
Hainan Island:  Thousands...millions...trillions of Japanese fighters and strike aircaft clobbered the port at Kiungshan, damaging a bunch of Allied combat ships and transports.  Nice move by Miller.
 
Allied Reinforcements:  The fleet carriers neared Balikpan and will move on toward Puerto Princessa.  The vast transport/CVE fleet at Balikpan will follow closely behind.  The combined forces should reach Hainan Island and vicinity within five days.  The fleet carrier CV TFs can break off to seek opportunities if any seem to arise.
 
China:  Allied troops are on the move trying to consolidate and "break through" at several Japanese strongholds including Wuchow, Liuchow, and Loc Song.  American troops moving north from Pakhoi will lend a hand.  The real question is whether to invade Swatow.  The risk of the massive Japanese LBA is the only thing that is making me hesitate; but landing troops at Swatow and then moving inland and up the coast to Amoy would really cause the Japanese problems.  It would effectively isolate Hong Kong and Canton and probably give the Allies a realistic chance of reducing those two cities, though the seiges might be very long ones.  This is a possiblity I'll weigh over the next five or six days.
 
Montok:  The Allies took this base on the island just north of Palembang.
 

[JohnDillworth]

Thousands...millions...trillions of Japanese fighters and strike aircaft clobbered the port at Kiungshan, damaging a bunch of Allied combat ships and transports. Nice move by Miller.

Hopefully this will pull fighters away from the home islands so your strategic bombing will go well. Strategic bombing was tough against the AI because the AI kept lots of good fighters in the home islands.

[Canoerebel]

11/01/44 to 11/04/44
 
Hainan Island:  Massed waves of Japanese fighters and bombers continue to hit Kiungshan, doing effective damage to some transports, though the Allies moved many of the ships either to Samah or out into the South China Sea where they will seek cover with the approaching Allied carrier TFs.  Overall, the Allied CAP has performed marginally, but I hope the Japanese pilots are fatigued and that many aircraft need service, because that could be important in a few days.

Invasion of Swatow:  I am leaning heavily toward invading this base with the objective of spreading to the interior base just to the north and also to Amoy.  Japanase carriers and combat vessels are a minimal threat, especially given the massive size of the Allied combat fleet and carrier force.  But Japanese LBA is a worrisome force to be reckoned with.  I could well get my clock cleaned ala Bullwinkle's example when his carriers neared the Home Islands in '45.  My ships will be close to mutliple big Japanese airfields.  However, Allied LBA can at least make an effort to suppress some of those fields...and I think my carrier force is larger than was Bullwinkles.  Needless to say, I wouldn't take this chance if I didn't feel it was necessary. 

Southeast China:  The Allied expeditionary force is nearing the road between Hanoi and Nanning.  My hope is that this force is strong enough that, in tandem with the Chinese troops in the area, the Allies can begin eradicating IJA bases, starting with Nanning and Liuchow and then rolling either south into Vietnam or north toward Wuchow (or a little bit of both).  The eradication program is important because eventually it should open up direct movement for the British and their Allies into Vietnam.  Once that happens a flood of troops will pour into China from that direction.

Mopping Up:  The Allies are in the process of taking lightly protect or vacant bases in the DEI. Salajar Island (near Makassar) and Loewoek should fall tomorrow, and troops will land at Balobec Island in a few days.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


Southeast China:  The Allied expeditionary force is nearing the road between Hanoi and Nanning.  My hope is that this force is strong enough that, in tandem with the Chinese troops in the area, the Allies can begin eradicating IJA bases, starting with Nanning and Liuchow and then rolling either south into Vietnam or north toward Wuchow (or a little bit of both).  The eradication program is important because eventually it should open up direct movement for the British and their Allies into Vietnam.  Once that happens a flood of troops will pour into China from that direction.

If you CAN clear this mess, and take Bangkok, that route is an absolute interstate highway into China. There's one RR gap in Cambodia where you have to come out of Strat and into Move, get over to Saigon, back to Strat, then off NE of Haiphong where you go to Move again and deploy onto Chinese roads. But even with the Strategic Mode Shuffle, getting from Bangkok and into China is so easy it makes you cry to remember how hard Burma was to get through.

If you can supress the airfields before you venture east you should. I found the big bases on Formosa pretty stiff, and Okinawa can reach out and touch you with kamis too.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
the Allies can begin eradicating IJA bases, starting with Nanning and Liuchow and then rolling either south into Vietnam or north toward Wuchow (or a little bit of both).  The eradication program is important because eventually it should open up direct movement for the British and their Allies into Vietnam.  Once that happens a flood of troops will pour into China from that direction.

Yay! Liquidation!

[Canoerebel]

11/05/44 and 11/06/44
 
Ack!  My carrier TFs arrived at a point south of Hong Kong to provide protection to Allied shipping at Hainan Island.  I previously set all strike aircraft to range four so that they wouldn't go off on a lark, but some of the new carriers that joined the force didn't get the word...so a handful of TBM and escort flew into hundreds of fighters at Hong Kong.  I lost 135 aircraft in a-2-a while Miller lost 10.  I'm sending a few carrier TFs to Samah to try to replace the precious lost fighters (the TBMs I'm not as concerned about).  Putting CVs into port in enemy territory is somewhat risky, but my main carrier force will take station between Samah and the hostile airfields, so I think it'll work.
 
Next?  My recon will check out the little city north of Swatow (in the interior).  If vacant, my airborne troops at Kiungshan can assault it next turn.  But I'm still weighing between invading Swatow (in which case I'll proceed with the airborne attack) or reinforcing my south China army via Pakhoi.  Looking at the map this turn I can see some advantages to "flooding the zone" by reinforcing in the south.  I'm nearly certain such an army could break through to Vietnam in the south and through Wuchow to the north.  This would then open up the reinforcement channel (to the south) and the interior of eastern China (to the north).  It has the advantages of keeping my troops together (rather than in a new pocket) and reducing the risk to my carriers.  I haven't decided yet.

[Canoerebel]

Here is the new poster-child for the argument that CAP in the game is too porous (and yes, I realize that due to bad weather, bad luck, weirdness, pilot error, commander-in-chief foibles, uber-Jap-pilot ability, kamikazee mythology, or whatever that something like this could happen....):
 
Morning Air attack on TF, near Taytay at 72,76
 
Weather in hex: Overcast
 
Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 42 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      G4M1 Betty x 24 
 
Allied aircraft
      Hellcat I x 10
      Seafire IIC x 4
      FM-2 Wildcat x 183
      F4U-1A Corsair x 33
      F6F-3 Hellcat x 319 
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      G4M1 Betty: 14 destroyed 
 
Allied Ships
      LCI-549
      LST-635
      LST-636, Kamikaze hits 1
      LST-474
      LST-354
      AP Gen. H.W.Butner
      SC-982

[JohnDillworth]

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 42 minutes

forget the weather. Raid was picked up at 120 miles. You could have had a couple of guys row out with a boat full of rocks and knocked out 24 unescorted Bettys!
Borked!

[Canoerebel]

11/07/44 and 11/08/44
 
Air Raid!  Despite my preceeding post, this two-day turn was quite eventful for the Allies.  Scattered waves of IJ air took on my CVE TF with it's 500-fighter CAP.  The Japanese lost 165 aircraft in return for that single hit on an LST.  The CVE TF should rendezvous with the main CV TF off Hainan Island tomorrow (giving the Allies a CAP of something like 1,000 navy fighters).  The three CV TFs that retired to Samah made good the fighters lost in the ill-advised raids of two days ago.  Those three TFs will rejoin the main fleet while a fourth CV TF moves to Samah to make replacements.

China:  Things are really shaping up here.  An all-Chinese army nearly took Wuchow, dropping forts from four to two.  An IJA reinforcing unit may arrive before I can take the base, but Chinese reinforcements are on the way.  Meanwhile, the USA expeditionary force should arrive at Long Soc (?), south of Liuchow, next turn.  Once that base is taken, the Alies can turn their full attention on Hanoi, to the south, and Nanning, to the north.

Reinforcements:  I have one  more turn to decide whether to invade Swatow or reinforce the first American army (at Long Soc).  If - big IF - the Chinese take Wuchow, that would open a link between the "southern pocket" and the area around Swatow.  In that case, I'm more likely to invade Swatow.  If the Chinese can't quite take Wuchow, yet, I'm much more likely to divert the amphibous force to Pakhoi, where it can unload and reinforce the "southern pocket."  At that point, the reinforcements would pour into the interior and immediately join the Chinese units at Nanning and Wuchow.  The ultimate objective is to blast through there, move on to Kanhsien, and then make for the coast around Amoy and Swatow.  Those bases are close enough to Japan proper to permit good strategic bombing.  (By the way, Kiungshan and Samah airfields are both level five already).

Operation Seven Days:  My overall assessment of this operation?  It has been even more successful and effective than I had hoped.  Having Hainan Island as a secure base of operations and then flooding into SE China through Kwangchoan and Pakhoi has thrown a big wedge between Japanese forces.  Things appear promising for the combined Chinese and Western Allied armies to move north and east while another army moves south to link up with the Brits in Vietnam.

Cleaning Up:  The Allies took Balobac Island (NW tip of Borneo) and are about to land at the base just north of Jesselton.  Over on Malaya, the Chinese units will attack at Victoria Point while a mixed Allied army continues to move down the peninsula towards Kota Bahru.

[Nemo121]

I find it amusing that raids resulting in 165 planes being destroyed and a single plane getting through and hitting a target leads to " CAP is too porous" posts.

Just because it happens to you and one doesn't like it doesn't mean it is wrong ( that's a general point and not one directed at Canoerebel ). In war and life lots of very unlikely things happen, including a single bomber getting through as the fighters concentrate on its compatriots.

[Canoerebel]

Everybody knows that Nemo.
 
As for the "CAP is too porous" line of thought, the reason for that line of thought isn't the occasional result like this one, which one would expect for the reasons you state, but rather that they occur regularly.  They are the rule, not the exception.  By late 1944 I wouldn't be surprised if an occasional 24 Betty vs. 500 CAP raid scored the odd hit, but I would be surprised if that happened frequently.