OT: Corona virus

[RangerJoe]

ST. PAUL, Minn. (AP) - Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison said Tuesday his office has started cracking down on price-gouging during the coronavirus outbreak.

Ellison says his office began its enforcement efforts immediately after Gov. Tim Walz's executive order banning price-gouging on essential goods during the COVID-19 peacetime emergency went into effect Saturday.

Ellison says so far, his office has received more than 300 price-gouging complaints on goods and services. Those include toilet paper, rice, cleaning products, face masks, eggs, butter and water. Ellison's office has made more than 70 visits to Minnesota retailers during the past four day to check prices and investigate complaints of price-gouging.

https://www.wdio.com/coronavirus/minnes ... ?cat=10335

[RangerJoe]

Batten the hatches:

Details: Wis. "Safer at Home" order may last one month

Updated: March 24, 2020 10:53 AM

Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers has released details of his "Safer at Home" order, which is now scheduled to take effect at 8 a.m. Wednesday and may remain in effect for a month.

The order prohibits all nonessential travel, with some exceptions. Evers said the order will remain in effect until 8 a.m. on April 24 unless he issues another order ending it earlier.

https://www.wdio.com/superior-wisconsin ... ?cat=10335

State of Wisconsin Department of Health Services Tony Evers, Governor Andrea Palm, Secretary EMERGENCY ORDER #12 SAFER AT HOME ORDER

https://content.govdelivery.com/attachm ... 20Home.pdf

[RangerJoe]

In Minnesota:

Walz in self-quarantine

The governor found himself following the state’s advice to stay home on Monday, after learning he came into contact with a person who tested positive for COVID-19.

A member of Walz's security detail tested positive for the coronavirus Sunday night, according to a press release. The governor was in "close proximity" to the person last week and was informed of the contact Monday morning.

Walz told reporters Monday that he’s asymptomatic and has not been tested for the virus. His self-quarantine is expected to end Monday, April 6.
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The governor isn’t the only statewide elected official who announced a personal impact of the coronavirus on Monday.

Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan said that her brother Ron died after contracting COVID-19 in Tennessee. He was diagnosed with cancer several weeks ago and had a compromised immune system.

“To many, he’ll be a statistic: Tennessee’s second COVID-related death. But to me, I’ll remember a loving, older brother, uncle, father, and husband,” Flanagan wrote in an Instagram post Sunday.

U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar also announced Monday morning that her husband, John Bessler, tested positive for the coronavirus. The senator said she was outside the 14-day exposure period and would not enter self-quarantine.

She added that Bessler became sick in Washington and is currently hospitalized with pneumonia and on oxygen. He was not a ventilator at the time.

https://www.virginiamn.com/covid-19/st- ... 96969.html

I could say something about Senator Klobuchar but it might be misunderstood.

[Ian R]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Ian R

Back in Oz, we now have 8 deaths and just over 2000 cases.

Interestingly, the majority of the increase is straight from a series of returning cruise ships including the Ruby Princess.

The cruise ship passengers might be easiest to trace, but airlines would have brought the virus into every city with an international airport already.

Canada's first cases were all airline travel related. Now we are seeing a surge because our "snowbirds" are returning from vacations and lengthy stays in other countries (up to 5.5 months) to avoid our winter. Many are arriving by car from the US - they are allowed to cross the border to return home.

Over a million have returned in the last two weeks and all are expected to self-isolate on arrival at home. But greater testing and greater awareness of symptoms has resulted in a spike of positive tests, mostly from these snowbirds. So if they got the virus in the US or some other country, the cases there are being exported! [8|] Much of the timing of these people returning is driven by the assurance of health care here vs. the fear that other countries health care systems reaching or exceeding capacity.

BB, I remain skeptical about the reported figures on covid-19.

First, I think way more people have had it than have tested positive. For all we know it could be 3-4 times the number.

Secondly, as a corollary the serious illness/death rate is being overstated, and is a much lower percentage, and in absolute terms, the flu is concurrently causing more deaths.

Thirdly, the vast majority of the hundreds and thousands of people world wide who have/had it and aren't counted, had no symptoms, or symptoms so mild that they didn't even notice it.

The current mass lock-downs are very arguably an over-reaction - and are causing economic damage that is unnecessary.

[Ian R]

Did a cruise ship arrive back from the Mediterranean?

ORIGINAL: Kull

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Did they life their NPIs though? My thinking was along the lines of the "Wuhan spike" with different reporting / diagnostic case definitions / laboratory testing anomalies. Any Danes here that can shed further light on this?

See chart below which confirms the curve (with daily numbers). There's a compilation of Denmark-specific Covid-19 news articles here, but my cursory scan didn't find a reason for the early spike-then-drop. By no means a detailed look, so there probably is an explanation in there somewhere.

[Ian R]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Ok. This just blew my mind. Not sure what to make of it and if there is anything to it or not.

It doesn't seem plausible in any of the other major early centers of the disease; Wuhan, but especially Italy, as the population shouldn't support this theory. On the other hand there are so many reported asymptomatic cases and the Diamond Princess is still a conundrum. Thoughts?

I'll post some details since there is a paywall.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd ... pe=blocked

The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.

The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.

The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta. 

Thanks for posting that - I should edit my post above to "millions of people have had it without knowing it".

Perhaps we don't need to collectively wreck our economies after-all.

[Ian R]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

What infection rates in Iceland and Australia may reveal about how COVID-19 could spread in the US

Research into the possible effects of heat, humidity and population density on the transmission of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has led some to consider that warmer weather during spring and summer in the Northern Hemisphere may lead to a decrease in the number of cases of COVID-19, the illness it causes, but there is a range of opinions on the matter in the infectious disease community.

The effect of the sun’s ultraviolet rays may play a larger role than even heat and humidity. As the probe into what role weather may play in the spread of COVID-19 continues, a data analysis may provide some new clues for what to expect in the United States as summer approaches. In particular, a look at the per capita infection rates of Iceland and Australia could offer a glimpse at UV’s possible impact on the spread of COVID-19 around the world.

As of Tuesday, Iceland has among the world's highest rates of confirmed coronavirus cases per capita at 0.177 percent, with 648 cases from a population of 364,260. Australia’s confirmed infected rate is just 0.0083 percent – 2,044 cases from a population of 25.4 million people.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-w ... -us/707057

Clearly, we need to get our hole in the ozone layer back pronto.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: Ian R

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Ian R

Back in Oz, we now have 8 deaths and just over 2000 cases.

Interestingly, the majority of the increase is straight from a series of returning cruise ships including the Ruby Princess.

The cruise ship passengers might be easiest to trace, but airlines would have brought the virus into every city with an international airport already.

Canada's first cases were all airline travel related. Now we are seeing a surge because our "snowbirds" are returning from vacations and lengthy stays in other countries (up to 5.5 months) to avoid our winter. Many are arriving by car from the US - they are allowed to cross the border to return home.

Over a million have returned in the last two weeks and all are expected to self-isolate on arrival at home. But greater testing and greater awareness of symptoms has resulted in a spike of positive tests, mostly from these snowbirds. So if they got the virus in the US or some other country, the cases there are being exported! [8|] Much of the timing of these people returning is driven by the assurance of health care here vs. the fear that other countries health care systems reaching or exceeding capacity.

BB, I remain skeptical about the reported figures on covid-19.

First, I think way more people have had it than have tested positive. For all we know it could be 3-4 times the number.

Secondly, as a corollary the serious illness/death rate is being overstated, and is a much lower percentage, and in absolute terms, the flu is concurrently causing more deaths.

Thirdly, the vast majority of the hundreds and thousands of people world wide who have/had it and aren't counted, had no symptoms, or symptoms so mild that they didn't even notice it.

The current mass lock-downs are very arguably an over-reaction - and are causing economic damage that is unnecessary.

How are you working out the flu comparisons?

At the risk of comparing apples with oranges I'm going to treat Hubei (58m) Italy (61m), Spain (47m) and the UK (67m) as roughly analogous in terms of population and healthcare provision.

From the 2014 to 2019 winter flu seasons the UK had on average 17000 deaths a year from flu. That works out as 46/day. If we assume that the flu season is restricted to 4 winter months you get to 140/day. The death rate in Hubei reached that point in less than a month before their lockdown arrested the rise. If we are positive and say that Italy is at the top of their curve they are running at c600 deaths daily. Spain still seems to be on an upward trend and is at c500 deaths daily.

[Kull]

ORIGINAL: Ian R

Did a cruise ship arrive back from the Mediterranean?

No (although that was my first thought, too)

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Kull

ORIGINAL: Ian R

Did a cruise ship arrive back from the Mediterranean?

No (although that was my first thought, too)

I believe that someone posted the Danes had set up testing stations for people who wanted to be tested.

[CaptBeefheart]

A few things:

Japan
This is a very interesting article on what's happening in Japan: Japan’s winning its quiet fight against Covid-19

The piece was edited by one of the chaps I had beers with on Friday night. Here's an excerpt:

As the weather warms up, people are gathering in droves to get drunk under the blossoming cherry trees, some restaurants are offering 30% “Beat The Coronavirus” discounts, public transport is full and even amusement parks are reopening.

So why aren’t more people dying? Japan has recorded a mere 49 deaths from Covid-19.

The answer is not simple: multiple factors are at work.

However, a Japanese official who gave an off-the-record briefing to Asia Times suggested that a “don’t ask, don’t tell” strategy, based on minimal testing and buttressed by information massage, has been quietly emplaced.

That may sound opaque – even inhuman. But it has ensured national calm and continued economic activity. It has kept the medical system from being overwhelmed and rests on a strong foundation: world-class treatment of the disease’s main symptomatic killer, pneumonia.

Hospital Capacity
Regarding hospital capacity, the USAF has a moth-balled hospital at Gimhae Air Base (I once had a tour of the facility) near Busan, Korea, which gets activated once in a while during exercises. Although you could sprinkle these kinds of things around the country, I'm not sure how cost-effective they would be.

Korea
Also, the Korean government is now going after churches, indoor sporting events and nightclubs in Korea--basically they are targeting establishments that have gotten bad PR recently. Some nightclubs in Gangnam are packed with them young 'uns.

Cheers,
CB

[RangerJoe]

The cost of maintaining such building would be high, if not done the buildings would fall apart. Here we have declining populations with school consolidations. If the schools are not maintained, including heating, in a few years there are structural problems.

[ITAKLinus]

ORIGINAL: Kull

ORIGINAL: alanschu

Unfortunate about Italy though based on say, China, I suspect that part of the flattening will involve an actual plateau, as opposed to a sudden decline.

It's funny how anxious I am for their results hahaha.

I won't have granularity until the province data is available tomorrow, but here's a quick look at the trend based on the new country total. The rate of increase at the country level has stayed roughly the same for two days now. The death rate increase, while high, is definitely a trailing indicator and yet still a lot lower than it was a few days ago.

Also, the numbers posted by ITAKLinus are not accurate. I used the 3/24 update from Worldometers, which has proven to be correct (at least with respect to countries whose data we trust)

I used the data given daily at 1800 by Protezione Civile, the state entity managing the emergency. I believe they are the original source of worldometers.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

A few things:

Japan
This is a very interesting article on what's happening in Japan: Japan’s winning its quiet fight against Covid-19

The piece was edited by one of the chaps I had beers with on Friday night. Here's an excerpt:

As the weather warms up, people are gathering in droves to get drunk under the blossoming cherry trees, some restaurants are offering 30% “Beat The Coronavirus” discounts, public transport is full and even amusement parks are reopening.

So why aren’t more people dying? Japan has recorded a mere 49 deaths from Covid-19.

The answer is not simple: multiple factors are at work.

However, a Japanese official who gave an off-the-record briefing to Asia Times suggested that a “don’t ask, don’t tell” strategy, based on minimal testing and buttressed by information massage, has been quietly emplaced.

That may sound opaque – even inhuman. But it has ensured national calm and continued economic activity. It has kept the medical system from being overwhelmed and rests on a strong foundation: world-class treatment of the disease’s main symptomatic killer, pneumonia.

Cheers,
CB

A very interesting article on Japan. Looks like a bit of cooking the books on Covid to keep things going, paired with great treatment of pneumonia using early scanning and lots of different drugs.

The current “treat the symptoms approach” seems to be working. If you go to the doctor in Japan with symptoms of pneumonia or breathing difficulties, they are very unlikely to give you a test for the novel coronavirus, but are likely to give you a CT scan or X-ray.

If medical pros find you have pneumonia, they will begin treating you. There is a very good chance you will be cured. And if you are cured, they probably will not test you for coronavirus. So a case of Covid-19 vanishes – literally and statistically.

Again, a totally different strategy to anything anyone else seems to be trying.

“We are in a period where containment is probably not realistic,” the official said. “We need to focus on treating the serious cases and most experts would quietly agree. If everyone is urged to get testing, then medical institutions will overflow with people who do not need to be there. This not only detracts from taking care of more critical cases, it could indirectly result in a greater health crisis.”

Wow.

“Ask yourself, ‘What is the value of wisdom when it brings no benefit to those who are the wiser?’ Most of the infected will recover on their own, thanks to their own immune systems. We need to first take care of those whose immune systems are failing them, or the health care system itself will fail.”

That appears to have kept the medical sector from being overwhelmed.

However, one tantalizing possibility – that the vaccination program for pneumonia which Japan has been enacting for the elderly since 2014 may be acting as a shield against Covid-19 – has not yet been scrutinized.

“Frankly, I have not considered it,” said the official.

Two very different strategies right next to each other in SK and in Japan, each working to keep the health sector working while protecting the majority of the population and aggressively treating the vulnerable and critically ill.

[CaptBeefheart]

Obvert: One other factor is that things may change in Japan now that the Olympics are being pushed back. Maybe they'll become more transparent.

By the way, regarding:

"However, one tantalizing possibility – that the vaccination program for pneumonia which Japan has been enacting for the elderly since 2014 may be acting as a shield against Covid-19 – has not yet been scrutinized."

This idea has been shot down on my friend's Facebook page by various medical professionals.

Cheers,
CB

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Obvert: One other factor is that things may change in Japan now that the Olympics are being pushed back. Maybe they'll become more transparent.

By the way, regarding:

"However, one tantalizing possibility – that the vaccination program for pneumonia which Japan has been enacting for the elderly since 2014 may be acting as a shield against Covid-19 – has not yet been scrutinized."

This idea has been shot down on my friend's Facebook page by various medical professionals.

Cheers,
CB

Good to know.

It is just a weird situation to figure out considering these kinds of reports from all over the world, as this one from France.

The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in France, as reported from the daily update last evening, is 22,300, a rise of 2,444 in a day, 10,176 people are in hospital with the virus, 2,516 of them in intensive care (34% of ICU cases are aged under 60).

If 34% of ICU cases are under-60, how is this not happening at a staggering level in Japan?

Good hand washing aside, they're inter-mixing much more than these countries that have been on lockdown for over a week, like France, Spain and especially Italy. I'm sure Italians now are exhibiting as much or more hygiene as the Japanese, have as high or higher incidence of mask-wearing, and are in almost total isolation, compared to getting drunk under the cherry blossom trees and eating out at Covid special 30% off restaurants!

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

A few things:

Japan
This is a very interesting article on what's happening in Japan: Japan’s winning its quiet fight against Covid-19

Great stuff, CaptBeefheart! [&o]

[MakeeLearn]

Japan
Confirmed: 1,193
Deaths: 43
Recovered: 285
Active: 865


One boon may be the Japanese eat a anti-inflammatory diet.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy




Can you pull that?

So far only from here and I have no "Sign In"


https://go.gale.com/ps/anonymous?id=GAL ... =AONE&sw=w

I went to see how far I got. Apparently some public libraries have credentials, so if you know somebody ...

Yes, if that is the correct article then Chickenboy can find it in a library that has a periodicals department. A University.

I found the article referenced in the bibliography of several books.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


Japan
Confirmed: 1,193
Deaths: 43
Recovered: 285
Active: 865


One boon may be the Japanese eat a anti-inflammatory diet.

That might also help the Indians with their curries.