GW Counterfactual Take 3.

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #2. MTO.

Operation Leapfrog. Amphibious Landing 4 of 5. Orange Beach (La Spezia).
I need a whiskey. I mean the Allied Combine Chiefs need one! On the two contested (i.e., less than auto) land combats, 2D10 rolls of 3 on both!

02-AL-MTO-LC-4-La-Spezia-CL.png (89.82 KiB) Viewed 346 times

02-AL-MTO-La-Spezia-GSPT-A2A.png (273.99 KiB) Viewed 346 times

02-AL-MTO-GSPT-La-Spezia.png (380.52 KiB) Viewed 346 times

02-AL-MTO-LC-4-La-Spezia.png (279.74 KiB) Viewed 346 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #2. MTO.

Reorg.

02-AL-MTO-ATR-Reorg.png (313.27 KiB) Viewed 344 times

End of Impulse.

02-AL-MTO-Balkans-EOI.png (1.75 MiB) Viewed 344 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #2. PTO.

Oh yeah, another automatic amphibious landing over in the Pacific, with a 2D10=15 roll.

02-AL-PTO-Amph-LC-Makassar-NEI.png (240.29 KiB) Viewed 343 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #2. MTO.

Also, US supply TRS in East Med is used to reorg CW CP aborted the previous impulse to Port Said.

02-AL-MTO-Suez-Canal-Naval-Reorg.png (577.19 KiB) Viewed 322 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #3. Weather & Actions.

(1) Impulse # 172.
(2) Weather D10 = 10 -> weather remains the same, fine everywhere except for storm in the North Monsoon.
(3) However; DRM=+1 (for next weather impulse pair roll) and impulse advance (remains) = 1.
(4) Actions: Land - both Germany & Japan.

03-AX-Weather-Action.png (21.92 KiB) Viewed 321 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #3. Arctic (Eastern) Front.

03-AX-Arctic-Mumansk-CL.png (39.95 KiB) Viewed 313 times

03-AX-Arctic-Murmansk-GSPT.png (269.84 KiB) Viewed 313 times

03-AX-Arctic-Murmansk-LC-3.png (231.64 KiB) Viewed 313 times

End of Impulse.
(1) Murmansk finally cleared and captured.
(2) To the southeast, Kesselring contacts Volgograd with his armies.
(3) Odds are in the 7 to 8 range, so he decides to wait until near the end of the turn before trying to recapture the city.

03-AX-Eastern-Arctic-EOI.png (1.3 MiB) Viewed 313 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #3. Eastern Front.

Southern Army Groups.
(1) Maneuver through gaps across this entire front.
(2) Germany didn't want to risk combat this early in the turn with modest to good (but not automatic) odds.
(3) Keeping units organized and on the move through the gap is the goal until later in the turn.
(4) German now has 2 corps on the Soviet border with Turkey.

03-AX-Eastern-Southern-EOI.png (1.7 MiB) Viewed 310 times

Kirov Rog.
(1) Mech corps in place to retake the 3 RPs next impulse.

03-AX-Eastern-Krivoy-Rog-EOI.png (1.98 MiB) Viewed 310 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #3. Eastern Front.

Siberian Army Groups.
(1) Germany shifts their axis of attack from the southern to the northern flank.
(2) Though Germany did blitz (Siberia 45,79) to help secure their southern flank.
(3) But, the their axis of attack is definitely shifting north towards the gap between Kirov and Kazan.
(4) The Soviets will definitely need to respond or risk a German breakthrough to Perm.
(5) On the southern flank, Germany pulls back a bit and concedes overrun of a Luftwaffe F2 with loss of pilot.

03-AX-Eastern-Siberian-CL.png (58.92 KiB) Viewed 309 times

03-AX-Eastern-Siberia-39-77-LC-1.png (261.2 KiB) Viewed 309 times

03-AX-Eastern-Siberia-45-79-LC-2.png (255.65 KiB) Viewed 309 times

03-AX-Eastern-Siberan-EOI.png (1.41 MiB) Viewed 309 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #3. Asian Theater. China.

03-AX-Asian-Sian-CL.png (45.74 KiB) Viewed 308 times

(1) Mech corps, tank & arty div debarked into Haichow.
(2) Their objective along with the Warlord in Shanghai warlord is the recapture of Shanghai both an objective and red factory.
(3) Yamashita & tank corps move along the road (rail) in the rain near Changsha.
(4) Disaster strikes in IJA's second attempt (assault) to take Sian.
(5) Also, with the supply line in the South China Sea broken (last impulse) and very unlikely to fix the rest of this turn, no oil will be available for Japanese units except those that remain at sea.

03-AX-Asian-China-GSTK-Sian.png (336.02 KiB) Viewed 308 times

03-AX-Asian-Sian-LC.png (272.13 KiB) Viewed 308 times

End of Impulse.

03-AX-Asian-China-EOI.png (1.94 MiB) Viewed 308 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #3. MTO. Balkans.

(1) Germany responds to the allied flanking landings both in Italy and in the Balkans.
(2) In Italy significant forces move north to escape/stop the encirclement leaving the city of Naples undefended (open) and Rome lightly defended.
(3) Depending on allied movements and combat next impulse, von Bock may be able to shift forces back south to Rome, which has 8 saved BPs.
(4) von Leeb was in Brest & arty div in Essen was railed to Milan.
(5) Rom General Anotnescu was railed from the Eastern Front to Brest to take command of Germany's U-boat/sub fleet.
(6) An assignment that he's happy to accept especially getting away from the Eastern Front.

End of Impulse.

03-AX-MTO-Balkans-EOI.png (1.93 MiB) Viewed 294 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #4.

Land - USA (w/O-chit & Clarke), CW, USSR, China.
Combine - Free France.
(1) Impulse # 173.
(2) USA - land w/O-chit & Clarke to try to shut the door on all German troops south of La Spezia to Trieste.
(3) Second US O-chit in row and of this turn.
(4) Even with an O-chit far from a sure thing, however, extensive analysis shows that trying anything else is still unsure and trying nothing leaves Clarke's stack surrounded and subject to being blitzed back into sea.
(5) Free France takes a combine to move a sub into the China Sea and search for the massive USN carrier task force there.
(6) Some action planned in the Balkans.
(7) There there's the deteriorating situation on the Eastern Front that the Red Army needs to address.

04-AL-Actions.png (31.62 KiB) Viewed 305 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. PTO. China Sea. Naval Combat.

04-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-CL.png (80.35 KiB) Viewed 299 times

Round 1 (1/2).

04-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-1.png (235.82 KiB) Viewed 299 times

04-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-1b.png (225.06 KiB) Viewed 299 times

04-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-1c.png (202.23 KiB) Viewed 299 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. PTO. China Sea. Naval Combat.

Round 1 (2/2).

04-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-1d.png (236.99 KiB) Viewed 297 times

04-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-1e.png (236.82 KiB) Viewed 297 times

04-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-1f.png (184.7 KiB) Viewed 297 times

Round 2.
French Sub Gp NOT committed, both searches fail to find.

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. BOA.

Cape St. Vincent.
(1) No way, no how are the allies risking supply.
(2) No search, no combat.

04-AL-BOA-CSV-No-Search-No-Combat.png (176.16 KiB) Viewed 296 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #4. Eastern Front.

Siberian Fronts.
(1) Ground strike to flip the OOS & isolated DAK panzer corps misses.
(2) Lone & flipped German fighter F2 overrun, destroyed & pilot killed.
(3) Major defense shift north to address the German attack axis shift (to the north).

04-AL-Eastern-Siberian-36-79-GSTK-1.png (380.01 KiB) Viewed 284 times

04-AL-Eastern-Siberian-EOI.png (1.27 MiB) Viewed 284 times

Southern Fronts.
(4) Artillery ground strike flipped 1 of 2 German corps on the Turkish border.
(5) Timoskenko reorgs the Kayusha arty div (not shown but he did!).

04-AL-Eastern-Southern-62-69-GSTK-2.png (323.33 KiB) Viewed 284 times

04-AL-Eastern-Southern.png (1.86 MiB) Viewed 284 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #4. East Africa.
(1) CW forces march into and take possession of Addis Ababas, Ethiopia.

04-AL-East-African-EOI.png (1.86 MiB) Viewed 282 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #4. Asian Theater. China. End of Impulse.
(1) With Japanese forces is disarray and their supply situation holding on through the China Sea by 1 CP, Mao aggressively moves his forces with the overall intention of eventually flanking (north & south) and isolating Japanese forces in northern China.
(2) Well that's his plan for now that is.

04-AL-Asian-China-EOI.png (1.76 MiB) Viewed 281 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #4. MTO.

Ground Strikes.

04-AL-MTO-GSTK-CL.png (49.71 KiB) Viewed 276 times

Venice.

04-AL-MTO-Venice-GSTK-A2A.png (244.9 KiB) Viewed 276 times

Milan.

04-AL-MTO-Milan-GSTK-2.png (364.41 KiB) Viewed 276 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #4. MTO.

NE1 La Spezia.

04-AL-MTO-NE1-La-Spezia-CL-1.png (32.17 KiB) Viewed 274 times

04-AL-MTO-NE1-La-Spezia-Paradrop.png (325.81 KiB) Viewed 274 times

04-AL-MTO-NE1-La-Spezia-LC-1.png (272.92 KiB) Viewed 274 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #4. MTO.

Venice.
(1)Odds weren't that great (59.5% PWIN) even with an O-chit to double land combat factors before the disaster with Luftwaffe ground support getting cleared.
(2) The allies examined several options and decided this 60/40 was the best risk vs reward scenario.
(3) Far from great but after last turn's disaster losing 2 US corps & div invading Green Beach (SE1-Venice) was the best that the allies could come up with.
(4) Then, the Luftwaffe fighter-bomber wing cleared reducing the land combat odds by -3.444 to 5.506B and 26.3% PWIN.
(5) Looked like another disaster on the horizon, but ...
(6) The god of dice is fickle and likes to mess with the emotions of us mere humans.

04-AL-MTO-Veince-CL-2.png (109.97 KiB) Viewed 272 times

04-AL-MTO-Venice-GSPT-A2A.png (244.04 KiB) Viewed 272 times

04-AL-MTO-Venice-GSPT.png (335.55 KiB) Viewed 272 times

04-AL-MTO-Venice-LC-2.png (265.65 KiB) Viewed 272 times