Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

11/11/44 and 11/12/44
 
China:  This was the turn of decision...invade Swatow (risky, but likely to succeed) or reinforce through ports already held by the Allies.  I went back and forth.  My gut told me invade Swatow.  But I finally decided to reinforce.  Clicking on the "end turn" button left a sour taste in my mouth.  The decision hinged on a variety of factors; some small and some large:  (1)  The Allied airborne assault against the adjacent hex gained 2:1 odds but didn't quite manage to take the base; (2) I read a post by Miller describing how IJ fighters assigned to escort faired badly while those assigned to sweep faired very well, and I blanched at the thought of him being able to put up 1,000 or 2,000 aircraft that might take light losses and hammer my carriers; (3) None of the troops in this wave are prepped for Swatow; I can land them at Pakhoi and Kwangchoan and move them inland where they can add impetus to the Allied advances; plus the base forces can be put to good use at both bases; (4)  I have a bunch of troops prepped for Swatow currently ready to go at Hainan Island; so as soon as these transports are empty I can reload and proceed with the invasion if I still feel like it's worth it; and (5) the Allies are firmly in control of the region and will remain so as long as I have sea and sea/air supremacy; better to not expose that position to massed waves of kamikazees unless absolutely necessary.  So the equivalent of about four divisions (including two US Army divisions) and many support units will land over the next few days.

[witpqs]

This comes straight from the "What Do I Know?" file - you did the right thing.

[pat.casey]

What's your supply situation looking like? I'd naively think you need to open an overland supply route back to coastal china b/c its not exactly a safe convoy route to bring in more supplies by sea (the area is still something if a Japanese lake). Seems like capturing and holding a bunch of isolated coastal bases in China might just let your opponent cut them off and destroy a few isolated garrisons for free VP.

[Canoerebel]

Supply situation analysis:

1) Hainan Island - 250,000 spread between the two bases with another 100k to begin unloading tomorrow. This island should be easy to keep supplied unless the Allies somehow lose supremacy of the sea.

2) China Ground - the supply situaiton is currently sufficient to handle all troops in the area. In part, this is because supply arriving via transports at Rangoon funnel through the Burma Road into China - my Chinese troops have been fully supplied for months now. The American troops have brought additional supplies, so the situation is very good for the ground troops at present.

3) China Air - the big question is whether the Allies can keep the airfields that will service B-24 and B-29 strategic bombers supplied. I'm afraid supply will trickle away into the countryside to feed distant troops. However, I would also think it would be easier to utilize coastal cities like Swatow and Amoy since the supplies will unload in bulk there before frittering away.

I think the Hainan Island bases are a bit too far from the Home Island to support strategic bombing, so my medium term objective in China is to take Swatow and Amoy.

[Canoerebel]

I've read through all the posts made here today - thanks for contributing, folks.  I've paid attention and I've learned some things.
 
I hope those who think the China invasion was too risky will keep an open mind for awhile to see how it turns out.  To my way of thinking it's already been a major success.  Here's my thinking:
 
1)  I could have advanced more carefully under cover of LBA (as I had done in the DEI since mid-1943).  Doing so would have taken a long time as I beat my head against Miller's strength in the Philippines, Java, Sumatra or Malaya.  In six months or so I might have been somewhere advantageous, but the cost in time, ships, and aircraft would have been tremendous.
 
2)  Through Operation Seven Days the Allies have won a decisive carrier victory, decisive combat ship victories, are ahead in the air, and have unhinged the entire Japanese defense.  Miller is actively evacuating the Philippines and his positions in Java, Sumatra, Malaya, and Vietnam are islolated.  The Allies will be able to deal with all of those relatively easily and inexpensively.  In the meantime, the Allies are advancing in China and will be in position to commence strategic bombing in early 1945.
 
The Allies have lost six CVE, a handful of CL and DD, and a bunch of transports...and that's essentially it.  The return for that investment has been remarkable.  I bet I would have lost much more than that following a more secure strategy and I wouldn't have accomplished nearly as much in return.
 
 

[BrucePowers]

No matter how things turn out this shows there are many different strategies for conducting the war!

[CaptBeefheart]

Looks like a bold masterstroke that paid off quite handsomely. Well done, Canoerebel. And thanks for keeping the drama level high on this AAR.

Regarding USAAF fighters, I found vs. the AI that I don't have any shortages at any point (but extensive USN/USMC shortages until early/mid-43). Probably the lack of attention to pilot training hurt you quite a bit and has had a follow-on effect as you lost more aircraft than you should have early on.

Also, regarding Allied production, I'd love to see some flexibility. I don't think it should be about losing Hawaii gets you X additional DDs, CAs or whatever, but rather an option be offered in which you can produce additional equipment, but it costs extra in victory points and supplies and/or fuel, or it costs in other production. Also, being able to shift production from 1E to 4E, army to navy aircraft, etc., should be allowed to a certain extent with factory down-time periods thrown in.

EDIT: One issue is the U.S. essentially has unlimited supplies, so perhaps some tweaking is needed to make supplies more scarce, and thus more valuable, if production/supply tradeoffs are going to be made.

Cheers,
CC

[Canoerebel]

11/13/44 and 11/14/44
 
Reinforcements:  The reinforcing units are coming ashore at Pakhoi and Kwangchoan in good shape.  150 base force have landed at the latter, which now has a level five airfield, so I've moved in five new fighter squadrons to assist with local CAP.  It will take at least two more days for the transports to unload; then a mass migration will take place inland.
 
China:  The Allies will try an important attack at Loc Song tomorrow - the combined American/Chinese army needs to break through here.  The Chinese army at Liuchow will attack, but I don't have high expectations there (yet).
 
Air War:  No massed attacks by the Japanese, but Miller did load up the airfields at Canton and Hong Kong.  I'm sure he was anticipating an invasion of Swatow after the American airborne assault on the adjacent city.  The Allied carriers will move to a point just east of Hainan Island tomorrow (the fleet carriers are already there, but the CVEs had accompanied the transports that went to Pakhoi).

[Canoerebel]

Here's the "Seven Days" situation as of 11/15/44:

[Canoerebel]

SEAC on 11/15/44:

[Canoerebel]

11/15/44 and 11/16/44
 
Quiet everywhere but China, where good things are happening:
 
Lang Son:  The combined American and Chinese army defeated the Japanese and took this key base.  Importantly, the IJA units were really trashed, meaning they won't be any good for a long time.  Now Hanoi/Haiphong/Vinh are a Japanese-held pocket that the Allies can work on by both land and air.
 
Liuchow:  The Chinese army here performed surprisingly well- dropping forts from four to two.  The Chinese will need to rest a few days, but should be capable of taking this city without reinforcement.  If so, that will leave just Nanning in Japanese hands in this area.  Once Liuchow falls, the Chinese units there will move to Nanning.
 
Which Means:  The successes at these two places mean that alot of the Allied reinforcing troops currently landing at Pakhoi and Kwangchowan can move move northwest to reinforce the Chinese army besieging Kukong.  Unless Miller reinforces that base it will quickly fall.  Then the Allies move on to Kanhsien.  Then the roads leading east to the important coastal cities are open.

[Q-Ball]

I wouldn't bother advancing down the Malay peninsula, and instead focus everyone on securing bomber bases.

With your lodgement at Hainan, and previous incursions in the DEI, the flow of Oil is stopped; taking Sinagpore won't change that.

In fact, any Japanese troops in the SRA are now cut off, and can't really contribute to the defense of the homeland. I would let them rot there, and point everyone East (or is it North) along the Chinese coast, and establish a bombing platform.

[Canoerebel]

Q-Ball - thanks.  I only have a few units pressing outside of the main theater of action, but I think they are worthwile for a couple of reasons:
 
1)  I can't tote everybody to Hainan Island in the near future anyhow, so they may as well do something.
 
2)  It would be helpful to take Singapore - besides the good port facility it would permit the Allies to bring supplies and reinforcements by sea rather than across SEAC.
 
3)  There's always a slight risk that Miller could concentrate his units into something that would pose a risk.  Better to keep up some pressure as a way of detecting "hot spots" that might develop.
 
The army advancing down the Malay peninsula is small - led by a Chinese unit of 500 AV making for Kota Bahru.  There are also three units totaling about 400 AV besieging Victoria Point. 
 
The Allies are also doing a little bit of mop up work around the DEI - landing at the base just north of Jesselton.  This is part of a campaign to eventually stop "blockade running" tankers from getting oil at Brunei.
 
Essentially all of the Allied effort is going into China now so that the Allies can try to take Swatow, Amoy and possibly Foochow for strategic bombing purposes.
 
 
 
 

[Canoerebel]

Just received this email message from Miller:
 
"I expect this turn to be the final death ride of the KB (assuming your CVs are still in range). Lets just hope they can take a few of your ships with them."
 
My carrier TFs remain about six hexes south of Hong Kong.  My strike aircraft are set to a range of four hexes to prevent them from launching massive raids against low-value targets.
 
So unless Miller closes to within four hexes there won't be any Allied strikes.  But I do hope Allied CAP wears out Japanese aircraft.

[CapAndGown]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Just received this email message from Miller:

"I expect this turn to be the final death ride of the KB (assuming your CVs are still in range). Lets just hope they can take a few of your ships with them."

My carrier TFs remain about six hexes south of Hong Kong.  My strike aircraft are set to a range of four hexes to prevent them from launching massive raids against low-value targets.

So unless Miller closes to within four hexes there won't be any Allied strikes.  But I do hope Allied CAP wears out Japanese aircraft.

Well, it is not going to be the final death ride if you are not going to shoot back.

[Nemo121]

Foolish play on his part. He continues to hurl his forces at your phalanx and continues to be surprised when he finds himself impaled on your sarissas.

What happened to turning the flank and hitting the baggage train?

Or, translated, he should be hitting your support SLOCs. That would slow you down at little cost to his shipping. Instead he just accepts combat on terms unfavourable to him again and again [8|][8|][8|][8|][8|]

[Canoerebel]

Nemo, I agree.  He could do a number of things that would be more effective than a banzaii charge - in part because Japanese air is still so powerful that I don't have control of the skies.  It's not time for desperation yet.  But I do understand where he's coming from  The sitaution in China has panicked Miller and the Allies can seemingly reinforce at their pleasure.  He's desperate to stop the bleeding so he came up with this plan.  It's possible that he's even grown tired of being on the defensive at this point and is psychologically willing to banzaii in expecatation that failure will put him in a position of honorable concession.  I'm not saying that's definately what's going on - just a possibility.
 
This entire operation proves once again that strong offensive operations - even if muddled or a failure (which this one isn't, thank goodness) - can often apply such pressure that it leads your opponent to make mistakes.  (Was it Stonewall Jackson who said:  "When in doubt, do something!" or words to that effect?)  The best example I can recall was in my WitP game with Miller.  An Allied invasion of Java was ultimately repulsed, but not before the KB was mauled and the Allies were able to advance almost at will well up into the Philippines.
 
Cap, you're right, although Miller may seek battle as close as possible in order to enhance the likelihood that his carrier- and LB-air will fly (he knows from repeated instances that often his aircraft won't fly if there's a far gap between them and my CVs).
 
There is a chance that Miller could achieve a victory of sorts - perhaps overwhelming my CAP while remaining out of range of counterstrikes.  Or perhaps he sends in his remaining surface assets and they throw my ships into confusion.  Or perhaps my carriers react against orders and get mauled.  (*ack* - that's a noxious thought!).
 
On the other hand, if the Allies win a big battle here then the game may became an unwelcome drudge to Miller.  When you have no navy left, can you enjoy playing a Pacific war?

[Canoerebel]

11/17/44 and 11/18/44
 
Major carrier clash south of Hong Kong.  The Allies are fortunate that the KB comes close enough to fall within the four-hex range I had set for my strike aircraft.  Both sides get in licks of various kinds, but the Allies came away with a victory.
 
Surface Combat:  I had detailed two small combat TFs to raid Japanese shipping around Hong Kong and Swatow.  They hammered a bunch of small transports, escorts, a CL, five DD and some ACMs.  However, in doing so I left my transports at Kwangchoan unprotected and a combat TF led by CA Mogami savaged them - sinking a handful of AK, another handful of APA, some LCI, and a few small escorts.
 
IJ Strikes vs. Pakhoi Transports:  A bunch of Japanese LBA chose to go after Allied transports unloading at Pakhoi (rather than my carriers), doing a fair bit of damage there and sinking a CVE.
 
Carrier Clashes: The big action was a massive exchange of carrier strikes over two days.  The Allies got the best of this exchange.  The damage suffered by Allied carriers:  CVL Langley (1 T), CV Indomitable (2 B), and CV Randolph (1 T).  My notes on the damage to Japanese shipping:  CVE Unyo (9 B, 1 T); CVE Kaiyo (4 B); CVL Ryujo (1 B, 1 T); CV Akagi (5 B, 1 T); CVL Mizuho (4 B, 2 TT); CVE Chuyo (5 B, 2 T); BB Fuso (1 B, 3 T); BB Nagato (13 B, 6 T); BB Yamashiro (13 B, 5 T). 
 
For the main fleet assets:
 
Allies Lose :  1 CVE; 1 CL (the latter in the surface combat); Allies suffer light/moderate damage:  two CV and one CVL. 
 
Japanese lose: 2 BB, 1 CL; 2 CVE; 1 CVL; Japanese suffer heavy damage to:  one BB; CV Akagi; a CVL and CVE.
 
Air Losses:  Tallying the results in the combat reports shows that the Japanese lost 550 aircraft and the Allies 261.  Japanese losses were probably much higher than that (due to damage aircraft not making it, flak, and ops).
 
Dearth of Cruisers:  One interesting feature of this battle was that the KB didn't have any cruisers present.  I already knew Miller was woefully short of BB, CA, and CL.  This battle essentially wiped out that remnant.
 
Summary:  This battle didn't end the war, but it made the job for the Allies easier as the already diminished threat from carriers and combat ships eroded significantly.  Or, as Miller put it:  "I was right and the fat lady is warming up."
 
What's Next:  I'll probably keep my CVEs in the vicinity of Hainan Island to provide protection.  It's time for my CVs to return to the DEI for two reasons:  to pick up the next wave of reinforcements and to permit a few damaged carriers to head to a shipyard (their absence will be partially covered by one of my CVs at Capetown -she just finished repairs).
 
 

[Nemo121]

When you have no navy left, no hope and limited strategic options it becomes time to see what can REALLY be done. If he quits in the near future I'd be interested in having a look at the situation and possibly rolling things back a few days or weeks to some interesting fork point ( at which there were multiple options ), having a few days to re-organise his air and naval forces and then taking over.

I've been looking at this recently thinking there were many opportunities to do much more damage and handle things very differently strategically. It might prove a challenge but, obviously, I'd want to see the map before I could commit. Some situations are so utterly borked that there's no way back.... There's hopeless and then there's starting a game already tied to the execution post as the officer commanding the squad says "Aim...." [:D] One can be an opportunity for a great challenge, another is simply an execution no matter what you do.

[Canoerebel]

One of the things I can't evaluate is Miller's industrial health.  Quite awhile ago he mentioned that he needed some help sorting through industry, which I think another player kindly provided. 

I know that his biggest oil producing centers (Balikpan and Palembang) took fairly heavy damage when he seized them at the start of the war; they were never repaired.  Given that plus the Allied presence in the DEI over the past six months of game time, I wouldn't be surprised if oil was a problem for him.

There's no quit to Miller, though of course it takes a few hours or a day to recover morale from a tough carrier loss.  But I suspect he'll regroup and continue the battle for some time yet.