AI for MWIF - Portugal

[brian brian]

thanks Steve, I hadn't looked it all up yet. What, though, in the rules, trumps picking the controlling Major Power and making it the new Home Country? Obviously that makes more sense and that's usually good enough for me, just wondering if that was in the clarifications document that I haven't read yet. Only a unit's original Home Country would count? (I'm a little handicapped in this thinking by experience with the old Gov't in Exile rules, which worked differently).

I had never thought about it until at WiFCon this year I saw the bizarre sight of the Spanish ARM unit in India about to take on the Japanese ARM unit west of Calcutta. The Allies had made India the new Spanish Home Country after Spain had fallen, but they still held Spanish Sahara. I believe the intent was to keep some Spanish assets around even if they lost the Sahara though...

[sajbalk]

You can certainly have the Portugese unit pick, say, the UK as a new home country. However, once all the Portugese minors are conquered, Portugal is completely conquered. The new home country is important mostly for supply.

[Incy]

I think you need to add a marauder defence that attempts to conquer South Africa. South africa can be conquered from Mozambique in 2 moves with the 4-3 INF. South Africa/ The South Africa<->Mozambique border is very often ungarissioned, and *often* it is impossible to get a corps to Pretoria to save South Africa in the 2 impulses the CW has to react. (Normally the only possibility is to port and then rail a corps, but often this can't be done.)

IMHO this is both a likely and high-value scenario. Depending on the situation and the supply rules used, Portugal might need to align to japan for this defence.

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: Incy

I think you need to add a marauder defence that attempts to conquer South Africa. South africa can be conquered from Mozambique in 2 moves with the 4-3 INF. South Africa/ The South Africa<->Mozambique border is very often ungarissioned, and *often* it is impossible to get a corps to Pretoria to save South Africa in the 2 impulses the CW has to react. (Normally the only possibility is to port and then rail a corps, but often this can't be done.)

IMHO this is both a likely and high-value scenario. Depending on the situation and the supply rules used, Portugal might need to align to japan for this defence.

It is very unlikely (regardless of the supply rules used) for a portugese unit to be in supply in southern Mozabique when at war with CW. I know that it was considered and removed just for that purpose. It may be so that it should be added just to give the CW player a scare and see to it that he is awake. [;)]

It will however not be a serious attempt on South Africa except with some very extreme circomstances.

-Orm

[peskpesk]

ORIGINAL: Orm

ORIGINAL: Incy

I think you need to add a marauder defence that attempts to conquer South Africa. South africa can be conquered from Mozambique in 2 moves with the 4-3 INF. South Africa/ The South Africa<->Mozambique border is very often ungarissioned, and *often* it is impossible to get a corps to Pretoria to save South Africa in the 2 impulses the CW has to react. (Normally the only possibility is to port and then rail a corps, but often this can't be done.)

IMHO this is both a likely and high-value scenario. Depending on the situation and the supply rules used, Portugal might need to align to japan for this defence.

It is very unlikely (regardless of the supply rules used) for a portugese unit to be in supply in southern Mozabique when at war with CW. I know that it was considered and removed just for that purpose. It may be so that it should be added just to give the CW player a scare and see to it that he is awake. [;)]

It will however not be a serious attempt on South Africa except with some very extreme circomstances.

-Orm

Here is a image of what Incy and Orm is talking about, the trick is how can the Portuguese 4-3 INF be in supply when the is starts to move?
I can only think of three cases:

* Limited overseas supply is not used and Portugal is aligned to JP and can trace a none blocked over seas supply line to a JP primary supply source
* Limited overseas supply is used and Portugal is aligned to JP and there is a none blocked over seas supply line by convoys to a JP primary supply source
* Mozambique is a "new home country" to Portugal

* Marauder Defence B 41+

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: peskpesk

* Limited overseas supply is not used and Portugal is aligned to JP and can trace a none blocked over seas supply line to a JP primary supply source
* Limited overseas supply is used and Portugal is aligned to JP and there is a none blocked over seas supply line by convoys to a JP primary supply source
* Mozambique is a "new home country" to Portugal

CW or one of it allies can always try to move a SCS (or AC) to Mozambique channel during the first impule they are at war with Portugal. CW might need to put the portugese SCS out of supply as well. For Japan to break through with supply they need both be at war with CW and get a unit there. Mozambique is a "new home country" to Portugal makes it troublesome but gives plenty of time to get a unit into S. Africa for defence. If you play with Terr you will most likely have a unit close by.


-Orm

[Incy]

I think there are several situations that are not very unlikely:

-Euroaxis has captured Suez (and has capability to bring supply to Mozambique)
-Japan is at war with CW, and has capability to bring supply to Mozambique
-Japan is not at war with CW, but has capability to bring supply to Mozambique. CW cannot afford action limits/forces to break this supply (for example, it has to use all action limits for other critical tasks, such as getting ashore in Portugal)

There is also a very real chance that Portugal can accomplish this conquest in 2 turns.
I.e. it can move without supply, reorg at EOT, then capture South africa next turn. Again, optional rules will be important for this possibility.

[peskpesk]

Okay, I shall add the “Marauder Defence B 41+” setup, to the Portuguese arsenal with the restrictions of the supply problem.

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: Incy

I think there are several situations that are not very unlikely:

-Euroaxis has captured Suez (and has capability to bring supply to Mozambique)
-Japan is at war with CW, and has capability to bring supply to Mozambique
-Japan is not at war with CW, but has capability to bring supply to Mozambique. CW cannot afford action limits/forces to break this supply (for example, it has to use all action limits for other critical tasks, such as getting ashore in Portugal)

There is also a very real chance that Portugal can accomplish this conquest in 2 turns.
I.e. it can move without supply, reorg at EOT, then capture South africa next turn. Again, optional rules will be important for this possibility.

The capabilty for the euroaxis to bring supply to Mozambique is very limited. With limited overseas supply option in play it is close to impossible. Without it it is still a daunting task if CW blocks the Mozambique channel.
-Italy has no ships with that kind of reach.
-Euroaxis needs a port bordering to Cape St. Vincent in supply with one of the German ships that has a 5 area reach.
-Or a friendly Gibraltar to get that German ship into a eastern med port.
-Or a port in supply bordering to Arabian sea with an Italian 3 range ship (not many of those).
-And if Axis has an in supply port even closer to Mozambigue there is a threat of invasion on South Africa even without a Portugese unit.

If Japan is at war with CW I feel that a CW land unit in S. Africa is not totally unrealistic. (But sure. It may be needed to add something to punish an overly bold CW player)

If CW declares war on Portugal it is fairly safe to asume that they do not have to many critical tasks at hand since they can afford actions versus Portugal. With one less corp in Portugal it may not even be critical to land in Portugal during the suprise.

And the the 2 turn advance gives the CW a long time to react. (But here it also might be worth doing if CW is overcommited elsewhere)

-Orm

[Incy]

CW will often be strapped for action limits *because* it's attcking Portugal. Not landing during the suprise impulse could be a big mistake, and that's allready a big draw on action limits there. So often a land or combined will usually be neccesary. If CW is fighting elsewhere or it's a short turn, the invasion will often be set up in advance, so it can be carried out in a land impulse. The south Africa setp could ruin this, and thus depriving the CW of a land impulse.
Plus the CW could have other critical things to do too, like moving to interdict any axis reinforcement of Portugal proper, or to secure some other important colony.

As for the euroaxis being able to provide supply, all it takes is that the euroaxis has taken Suez, and is now basing a few ships (or CP) off the African Horn. This is not uncommon.

[composer99]

Suez falling is not that uncommon.

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Suez falling is not that uncommon.

Capturing Suez is common. Getting supply from Italy to South Africa against a supply blockade is tougher. And I would say that it is a rare CW player that is pushed that hard and declares war on Portugal.

-Orm

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Orm

ORIGINAL: composer99

Suez falling is not that uncommon.

Capturing Suez is common. Getting supply from Italy to South Africa against a supply blockade is tougher. And I would say that it is a rare CW player that is pushed that hard and declares war on Portugal.

-Orm

The AIO has to allow for unusual play by newcomers to WIF. Having the AIO capable of dealing with the unexpected/weird in a 'rational' manner is very important to me.

[brian brian]

I think any good CW player would plan an attack on Portugal at least a turn or two in advance and have a South African unit ready for the DoW; either the Capetown MIL, maybe a TERR from southern Africa, or the easy-to-build South African INF, or just have the Queens drop off a unit. No action limit pressures at all. WiF greatly rewards advance planning, that's what I like about it. Players who go by the seat of their pants, impulse by impulse, don't do as well.

Far more likely than a Portugese unit being able to advance out of Mozambique and actually accomplish anything would be the appearance of Japanese peacekeepers.

[Froonp]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

I think any good CW player would plan an attack on Portugal at least a turn or two in advance and have a South African unit ready for the DoW; either the Capetown MIL, maybe a TERR from southern Africa, or the easy-to-build South African INF, or just have the Queens drop off a unit. No action limit pressures at all. WiF greatly rewards advance planning, that's what I like about it. Players who go by the seat of their pants, impulse by impulse, don't do as well.

Far more likely than a Portugese unit being able to advance out of Mozambique and actually accomplish anything would be the appearance of Japanese peacekeepers.

When I do the Portugal as the CW, I always plan to conquer Mozambique and Angola. Angola is less important, but Mozambique makes it too easy for the Japanese to conquer South Africa.
Preparing this is top priority for me, and conquering Mozambique is really easy. You just need to setup the TERR that starts in Africa somewhere near pretoria, and walk into Mozambique.
I always setup an invasion of the Azores too, as I don't want to be forced into DoWing them next to control them.
But now that there is the 3-1 GARR, I don't DoW Portugal anymore. At least, I did not do it in the 2 last games where I was the CW.

[Incy]

I do so too.
This is why I want the AI to be able to recognize and exploit the mistake of CW not taking SA/Mozambique border seriously.

Btw, maybe there should be a setup designed to *defend* Mocambique (in preparation for a later Japanese push against South Africa)?

Just putting the unit in Lourenco Marques should prevent even a prepared CW from taking Mozambique, and if it's chosen as a new home country, then the CW will have to deal with an in-supply army (possibly with japanese backing) on it's South Africa border.

I can see myself aligning Portugal with Japan and doing this next time around

[Mike Dubost]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

I think any good CW player would plan an attack on Portugal at least a turn or two in advance and have a South African unit ready for the DoW; either the Capetown MIL, maybe a TERR from southern Africa, or the easy-to-build South African INF, or just have the Queens drop off a unit. No action limit pressures at all. WiF greatly rewards advance planning, that's what I like about it. Players who go by the seat of their pants, impulse by impulse, don't do as well.

Far more likely than a Portugese unit being able to advance out of Mozambique and actually accomplish anything would be the appearance of Japanese peacekeepers.

One of the interesting things about WFI in my limited experience with it is that different powers have a different ability to change horses in mid-stream.

For example, given Italy's limited builds and low action limits, I don't think they can change plans at all. They should have one plan for offense and one for defense, updated as the situation changes, and just decide when to go on defense.

The CW really needs to plan about a year ahead, the US needs to plan about 6 months ahead (at least to the extent of Pacific versus Europe for the builds). I think they do have some ability to switch, with proper planning.

Germany can quickly switch troops within their controlled area, and their build strategy is similar for several different plans. I think they have the highest ability to change. Of course, changing comes with an opportunity cost, as even a bad plan stuck to is often better than a pair of good plans switched off, as the historical Germans found.

I do agree that the AI must be prepared to deal with unlikely situations and especially with errors. If I mess up, the AI should be prepared to show me the error of my ways, particulary as it helps teach me so that I can avoid errors in playing human opponents. I think a few of my friends might be convinced to try a game of WFI if we don't have to spread maps all over an entire room of a house [:)], and I would like to be able to "test drive" a plan with reasonable assurance that major flaws will be pointed out. I recognize that AIs typically are not as good as humans, but based on what I see here ([&o]), this AI looks like it will be an effective tool for finding big flaws.

[brian brian]

I think the option to set-up in Mozambique should be left in there, but it is nowhere near as likely that would accomplish anything on the regular scale map as it is on the paper African map. It's just not gonna happen in a huge majority of games.

I do think though that setting up in the Azores, if the Germans are in position to reinforce and are waging a serious Battle of the Atlantic, should be considered. Maybe that is reason the CW launched a DoW in the first place. Could be the more traditional reason of wanting airbases to defend Gibraltar, but maybe not. Maybe Germany (the AI) is only bluffing a Gibraltar campaign temporarily after France. Let the CW take Lisbon, they are going to succeed anyway without a German commitment in the Bay of Biscay, and hold something possibly more valuable in the long run.

[peskpesk]

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[peskpesk]

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