rather than talking about the developments in the southern PI, I would like to ask for your assumptions/predictions relating to a(t least one) mystery TF which has appeared.
Below, I show a screenshot taken before the last turn (i.e. on December 21 game file date), along with possible movements for the day before (broken lines) and the movement that has occured in my opinion during the last turn (solid line), as visible from the December 22 game file.
The TF is now in hex 81,113, and SigInt tells me about heavy volume radio traffic. The only other Intel I got is the one indicated in the picture. I should add that in the December 19 => December 20 combat report, Baby KB or at least parts thereof, including at least one BB raised its ugly head in the vicinity (Unescorted Kates attacked ships at Ambon, which were CAPped, minus 4 Kates), thus at least potentially, there are heavy hitters available.
The mystery I am trying to unravel is what this may be ? At first, I had believed an Ambon invasion (logical step after taking Manado and Ternate - well, I did not quite understand why he took Ternate in the first place), but I am not sure about that any more. So what else ? A deep raid ? An early invasion of northeast Australia ? In that case, Ternate may be a base he needs in order to be able to move planes to bases in Northern Australia, but I ask myself whether this can be cosidered as doable and, more importantly advisable. Guesses or analysis, anyone (of course restricted to people not reading the other side of this AAR) ?
I would plump for it being the Ambon invasion force approaching its target from the rear to avoid the anticipated Allied searchplane arcs. Possession of Ternate would be consistent with the enemy axis of advance being Ambon followed by Timor. There are too many Allied bases in the area for it to be an early invasion force for northern Australia - his SLOC would be too vulnerable without the capture of some more Allied bases in the area.
by now, I am in possession of another .001 file and know what the TF was. You were absolutely correct with respect to the target; it was the Ambon invasion force. The reason for this strange approach was -according to Rattovolante- different though; the "follow" and "meet" commands are evidently difficult to master. I had troubles as well when I needed a meeting of two TFs to bunker additional fuel.
Maybe I'll take the opportunity to add another comment or two a) relating to ambon and b) in order to stir up some more general strategy discussion.
a) I hope that Ambon will be interesting. My opponent brought some really heavy hitters for pounding the base into submission (three IJN BB), potentially because he is aware that so far my cruiser force in the region is fully intact. However, their staying time is evidently limited. He does hold Davao(LVL2 AF), Manado (LVL3AF), Ternate (LVL1AF), and there is of course the base formerly known as Palau (?), Babeldo-babelda-something (LVL3 AF, I think), but Manado is somewhat damaged and so is Ternate. Therefore, I am not sure how well he will be able to project air power once his heavies are out of ammo. I guess we will see...
In addition, Ambon has been reinforced a bit, its garrision's AV is about twice what it was at the beginning of the game. Bringing along a force that has been set up for an optimized string of conquests may not be sufficient. At Manado, which was not reinforced by me, Rattovolante did just that, had an unlucky dice roll or two and needed several days to take the base, using a lot of naval bombardment. I have to see the damage done by the first shore bombardment though before I can make any more definite predictions.
b) Now, on to the strategy discussion. I had similar thoughts about an early move on Darwin at first, but then I looked at options for a possible response, and frankly I am not so sure that under game conditions this problem would materialize for him.
The ability to take the base is clearly there. Small garrison, no significant forts, no real way to reinforce or counterattack but via sea lanes (for which one does not have enough PP) or extremely long marching along mostly bad roads. No fighter planes in Australia. Air support for Darwin only from Koepang at Hudson extended range. Nothing to be really worried about.
There are a lot of bases around, but the question is how useful they really are, as most of them have LVL 1 AFs only. Of useful AFs, Koepang is closest (12 hex, I think), extended range for Hudsons, out of range for Dutch planes. Ambon is next (15 hex?), also LVL 4. Then comes Kendari (LVL4).
Looking at the sea lanes, only Kendari and Ambon may pose potential danger to the SLOC. If keeping the maximum possible distance, I think that from Kendari only Hudsons could be in a position to attack, and they could attack only at close to maximum range. Ambon is the only place that may pose a threat. Even that thread is purely hypothetical, though, because it assumes that successful naval attacks can be conducted by the Allied in this region early on. But I think most AARs around here confirm my previous rants that they just don't hit a thing. If you are scared after all, use Zeros from Ternate on LRCAP.
That leaves surface forces. However, even CLs need a reasonable port size to reload, and naval support and/or tenders are scarce in the vicinity. It may be a one shot approach. At the same time, Darwin has a LVL3 AF, and Japanese planes are good at ship hunting. Not good prospects, if you ask me...
Therefore, I am no longer sure at all that this could not be done. Under WitP conditions, where Martins would give you a hit or two on a ship every now and then, probably not. Now, with AE I'm really not sure. Move in a sizeable force with a lot of supply, fly in planes to make sure you got air superiority and only after that you go for Ambon. You need to get the TFs in and out, then the garrison should be able to look after itself for quite a while, because essentially no counterattack or consistent pressure on the base can be maintained by the Allied player.
Last not least what should be discussed first: Possible gains. I believe that many Allied players ship stuff from the DEI to Australia, specifically Darwin (only real alternative is Perth, which is a bit further), or India, which is still further, and you are fighting against the clock here, thus evacuating stuff from there is made more difficult). I think a JFB really should try [8D], it may turn out to be a nice pain in the Allied butt.
hmmm... what a flurry of discussion I have triggered with the above post... [8|] Looks like I need to work on the quality of this AAR to become more attractive for my esteemed readership. Any suggestions ? Preferably not too time consuming, even though right now I am in a bit of a lull... I think the beginning of this week was not good in the real life for my opponent, and on top of that he has announced that he would need some time to tweak a thing or two on the map following a not very lucky Wake invasion and the Ambon invasion mentioned above, which seems not to run according to his plan and thus require a bit more time for this turn than usual.
hartwig.modrow,
Sorry about the lack of response but I thought from your WITP AAR that you understood why I would be constricted in posting to this AAR.
Specifically regarding post #23, I personally have found it somewhat confusing as to what the question was. Were you asking:
(1) whether Darwin is more defendable for the Allies in AE than it was in classic WITP?
(2) what might be Japan's next target after Ambon?
(3) are surface fleets/maritime cargo operations now feasible in the Ceram/Timor/Arafura Seas because the potency of air strikes is less now? Does this hold true for both sides?
(4) which issues and considerations should the Allies take into account for a counterattack in the eastern DEI?
Handicapped as I am, I can't just respond to a somewhat free flowing philosophical discussion (in the German style) - I need a more Roman (aka Senecca) approach[:D]. For me I would need some more hard data because remember, I don't have AE.
In future I would suggest that you can still post in the same style (where you canvas pros and cons) but at the end refocus your readers attention by listing the specific questions you would like feedback on.
Alfred
sorry - the comment re. flurry of discussion was definitely not aimed at you, but I had hoped that some other readers -if there are any- would say a thing or two (same holds for the style of this AAR).
But you are most likely correct in that my thesis that was supposed to be the basis of the discussion was a bit blurred and not put in a sufficiently structured way. Seneca aims a bit high (I might manage to achieve the level of the Consolatio ad Polybium XVIII 9, but then that is a definite slur on his reputation), but I'll try to improve and, if I pick the topic up again, provide some hard data along with it.
As the topic is not directly related to this game, a separate thread in the War Room may be a better place for said discussion anyway, maybe I will set one up at an appropriate point of time or in a sufficiently generalized way.
hartwig.modrow,
Well....I am still uncertain what the actual question was, but will make a few comments anyway.[:)]
Certainly the War Room can be a useful place to posit strategic questions. The advantage of doing so is that you probably will have a wider reading audience than your core AAR readership. Also the non-core AAR readers, being most likely ignorant of the subtle nuances of your PBEM, will feel liberated in their ignorance and therefore more willing to offer advice without fear of their comments appearing to be silly. The disadvantage is that your opponent will be able to read the thread and no matter how careful you are, will glean important information.
Regarding northern Australia. In WITP classic, generally speaking in 1942 northern Australia is indefensible against a determined Japanese attack. In AE, I don't think the situation is quite as bad for the Allies and under certain circumstances an Allied reinforcement of the north makes a lot of sense. Consider the following factors:
(1) in classic WITP, Darwin was basically 100% dependent on sea transport for resupply. In AE, with the capacity of bases to pull supply (by nominating a specified supply level), in theory you should be able to set up a series of inland bases to act as pumping stations to push supply overland to the Top End;
(2) resupply of Darwin by sea, whilst still potentially risky for the Allies in AE, is less risky than in classic because (a) Nells and Bettys (referred by jrcar as Netties, a term I rather like) will need the presence of an Air HQ in order to launch torpedoes, at least until captured bases are built up
(b) Japanese torpedo air operations (by the Netties) now consume more supply (the usual amount to launch level bombers plus that consumed by Air HQs to restock on torpedoes)
(c) air strikes on naval targets are now less powerful unless the unit in question has the relevant air skill
(3) south of Darwin there is now a dot base which can be built up to a significant air base. Doing so provides the following advantages
(a) the Allies can disperse their airpower away from Darwin airfield onto nearby mutually supporting airfields
(b) no longer can Darwin by "nuked" by a sea bombardment which renders the entire Allied airpower (concentrated at Darwin due to lack of suitable nearby supporting air bases) hors de combat
(c) it allows the Allies a fortified fall back position if forced to withdraw from Darwin, with chances to block any further southward movement by the enemy whose Darwin port would remain within range of Allied interdiction
(4) in AE most Japanese players will be somewhat more cautious in conquering the DEI. This means that in Jan-Feb 1942, the Allied player will probably have a largely clear run to reinforce Darwin by sea with supply and troops.
Of course there are other bases in the north (Wyndham, Broome etc) which can be attractive to Japan. But Darwin is the most important.
Alfred
Yes Alfred is right in identifying Fenton south of Darwin as a potential 4E base, as of course it was historically. In my PBEM games I am building up Fenton with the same priority as Darwin, because I feel that it makes a better 4E base than Darwin. I feel that Japanese medium bombers based on say Ambon would have trouble suppressing two large airbases at longrange at once.
About Supply; I would buildup Broome/Port Headland as support bases with fighter and ship refueling capabilities. I would run resupply convoys into Darwin with fighter cover, with the express purpose of cutting down the Netty population in the area. I think that in AE the Netty's are a bit more vulnerable, as they were historically.
DP.
When you see the Southern Cross, For the first time
You understand now, Why you came this way
before I start with what is announced as the topic of this post, a few words to the recent contributors:
Alfred, DivePac88 - thanks a lot for your input. I had seen Alfred's post already this morning and had intended to add a bit of discussion here tonight, but I was just able to look at a .001 file from my opponent which contains a bit of interesting surface action which I want to share first with the action-loving folks. Will definitely get back to the northern Oz discussion though, interesting topic, also relating to the comparison between WitP (vanilla and Nemo's mod) and AE.
But first, the promised surface action, the first big series of surface battles in our war (as mentioned above, I thought I might try to keep my powder dry).
As I had told you previously, my opponent had BBs hitting Ambon in the last turn. Well, BBs have a limited amount of ammo for the big guns, the CAs supporting Ops in the DEI had been spending a lot of Ammo when supporting the conquest of Manado and I thought they might still be someplace picking up new shells, thus I thought maybe I can cause some trouble with light surface units and sent two TFs to Ambon: Boise and the three British D-CLs along with a DD and a 5 DD TF including Isis, Encounter, Vampire and two dutch DDs.
I was almost right...
One thing I had not taken into account was that it is of course a good idea to move a BB into an amphibious TF as magnet for CD fire even if it does not have too much ammo for the heavy guns left. Sounds logical, does it not ? So this is what my CL TF ran into:
[font="Courier New"] Day Time Surface Combat, near Ambon at 76,109, Range 2,000 Yards
Japanese Ships
BB Haruna, Shell hits 24, Torpedo hits 1[8D], on fire
CM Itsukushima
DMS W-13
DMS W-14, Shell hits 6, on fire
PB Busho Maru
PB Chitose Maru, Shell hits 10, heavy fires, heavy damage
PB Kenkon Maru, Shell hits 5
PB Kyo Maru #11, Shell hits 6, and is sunk
xAK Kyusyu Maru
xAK Tenryu Maru, Shell hits 1
xAK Thames Maru
xAK Tihuku Maru, on fire
xAK Macassar Maru
xAK Nansin Maru
xAK Taihei Maru
xAK Okuni Maru, Shell hits 5, heavy fires
xAK Amakusa Maru
PB Kinsyo Maru #2, Shell hits 18, heavy fires, heavy damage
PB Toko Maru #4, Shell hits 8, heavy fires, heavy damage
Allied Ships Reported to be Approaching!
Japanese TF suspends unloading operations and begins to get underway
Low visibility due to Thunderstorms
Maximum visibility in Thunderstorms: 3,000 yards
Range closes to 28,000 yards...
Range closes to 26,000 yards...
Range closes to 24,000 yards...
CONTACT: Allies radar detects Japanese task force at 24,000 yards
Range closes to 22,000 yards...
Range closes to 20,000 yards...
Range closes to 18,000 yards...
Range closes to 16,000 yards...
Range closes to 14,000 yards...
Range closes to 12,000 yards...
CONTACT: Allies radar detects Japanese task force at 12,000 yards
Range closes to 10,000 yards...
CONTACT: Allies radar detects Japanese task force at 10,000 yards
Range closes to 8,000 yards...
CONTACT: Allies radar detects Japanese task force at 8,000 yards
Range closes to 6,000 yards...
Range closes to 4,000 yards...
CONTACT: Allies radar detects Japanese task force at 4,000 yards
Range closes to 2,000 yards...
CONTACT: Japanese lookouts spot Allied task force at 2,000 yards
CONTACT: Allied lookouts spot Japanese task force at 2,000 yards[/font]
Of course, the BB took mostly non-penetrating hits, disabling a few AAA guns. But At the same time, most of the hits against most of the CLs were non-penetrating as well, because big gun ammo was mostly depleted. Only poor Danae received heavy hits. But seeing Haruna take a fish was really nice...
Next, the CLs were evicted from the hex and met a Japanese DD TF...
[font="Courier New"]Day Time Surface Combat, near Namlea at 76,108, Range 1,000 Yards
Japanese Ships
DD Hokaze
DD Kuretake, Shell hits 6, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Fuyo
DD Karukaya, Shell hits 5, on fire, heavy damage
Low visibility due to Thunderstorms
Maximum visibility in Thunderstorms: 2,000 yards
Range closes to 24,000 yards...
Range closes to 18,000 yards...
Range closes to 12,000 yards...
Range closes to 6,000 yards...
Range closes to 1,000 yards...
DD Karukaya engages DD Barker at 1,000 yards
DD Karukaya engages CL Durban at 1,000 yards
DD Kuretake engages DD Barker at 1,000 yards
DD Hokaze engages DD Barker at 1,000 yards
Range increases to 2,000 yards
DD Karukaya engages DD Barker at 2,000 yards
DD Barker sunk by DD Fuyo at 2,000 yards
CL Dragon engages DD Kuretake at 2,000 yards
Tanaka, Tomoo orders Japanese TF to disengage
Range increases to 5,000 yards
DD Karukaya engages CL Boise at 5,000 yards
CL Durban engages DD Fuyo at 5,000 yards
CL Durban engages DD Kuretake at 5,000 yards
CL Durban engages DD Hokaze at 5,000 yards
Task forces break off... [/font]
Well, unfortunately DD Barker was sunk. However, if FOW does not fool me here, two Jap DDs may be in a bit of trouble, perhaps one or both won't make it home.
Next, my DD TF paid a visit to Ambon, where the big invasion TF including Haruna was still in possession of the battleseas. Haruna fought like a lion, blowing van Ghent and Isis out of the water, but...
she took another torpedo hit [:D]...
[font="Courier New"]Day Time Surface Combat, near Ambon at 76,109, Range 2,000 Yards
Japanese Ships
BB Haruna, Shell hits 25, Torpedo hits 1 [:D], on fire, heavy damage
CM Itsukushima
DMS W-13
DMS W-14, heavy fires
PB Busho Maru
PB Chitose Maru, heavy fires, heavy damage
PB Kenkon Maru, Shell hits 5, on fire
xAK Kyusyu Maru
xAK Tenryu Maru
xAK Thames Maru
xAK Tihuku Maru, Shell hits 2, heavy fires
xAK Macassar Maru
xAK Nansin Maru, Shell hits 3, on fire
xAK Taihei Maru
xAK Okuni Maru, Shell hits 5, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Amakusa Maru
PB Kinsyo Maru #2, and is sunk
PB Toko Maru #4, heavy fires, heavy damage
Allied Ships
DD Vampire
DD Piet Hein, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Van Ghent, Shell hits 9, and is sunk
DD Encounter
DD Isis, Shell hits 9, and is sunk
Low visibility due to Thunderstorms
Maximum visibility in Thunderstorms: 3,000 yards
Range closes to 28,000 yards...
Range closes to 26,000 yards...
Range closes to 24,000 yards...
Range closes to 22,000 yards...
Range closes to 20,000 yards...
Range closes to 18,000 yards...
Range closes to 16,000 yards...
Range closes to 14,000 yards...
Range closes to 12,000 yards...
Range closes to 10,000 yards...
Range closes to 8,000 yards...
Range closes to 6,000 yards...
Range closes to 4,000 yards...
Range closes to 2,000 yards...
CONTACT: Japanese lookouts spot Allied task force at 2,000 yards
CONTACT: Allied lookouts spot Japanese task force at 2,000 yards
BB Haruna engages DD Isis at 2,000 yards
BB Haruna engages DD Encounter at 2,000 yards
BB Haruna engages DD Van Ghent at 2,000 yards
DD Isis engages PB Kenkon Maru at 2,000 yards
BB Haruna engages DD Vampire at 2,000 yards
DD Van Ghent engages xAK Okuni Maru at 2,000 yards
DD Vampire engages xAK Tihuku Maru at 2,000 yards xAK Amakusa Maru collides with DMS W-13 at 76 , 109 Nice little bonus ! [:)]
DD Isis sunk by BB Haruna at 2,000 yards
BB Haruna engages DD Encounter at 2,000 yards
DD Van Ghent sunk by BB Haruna at 2,000 yards
BB Haruna engages DD Piet Hein at 2,000 yards
BB Haruna engages DD Vampire at 2,000 yards
Range increases to 4,000 yards
BB Haruna engages DD Encounter at 4,000 yards
BB Haruna engages DD Piet Hein at 4,000 yards
BB Haruna engages DD Vampire at 4,000 yards
Range increases to 6,000 yards
BB Haruna engages DD Encounter at 6,000 yards
DD Piet Hein engages PB Toko Maru #4 at 6,000 yards
DD Encounter engages PB Kenkon Maru at 6,000 yards
DD Vampire engages xAK Amakusa Maru at 6,000 yards
DD Vampire engages xAK Nansin Maru at 6,000 yards
DD Piet Hein engages xAK Thames Maru at 6,000 yards
Japanese Task Force Manages to Escape
Task forces break off... [/font]
The remaining DDs were then evicted to Namlea, where they met another Japanese TF, which unfortunately managed to flee...
[font="Courier New"]Day Time Surface Combat, near Namlea at 76,108, Range 30,000 Yards
Japanese Ships
CM Itsukushima
PB Kenkon Maru, on fire
xAK Kyusyu Maru
xAK Tenryu Maru
xAK Thames Maru
xAK Macassar Maru
xAK Nansin Maru, on fire
xAK Taihei Maru
xAK Amakusa Maru
Allied Ships
DD Vampire
DD Piet Hein, on fire
DD Encounter
Low visibility due to Thunderstorms
Maximum visibility in Thunderstorms: 2,000 yards
Range closes to 28,000 yards...
Japanese Task Force Manages to Escape
Japanese Cargo TF evades combat[/font]
Unfortunately, poor Danae ran across a sub while limping home...
[font="Courier New"]Submarine attack near Ambon at 76,109
Japanese Ships
SS I-124
Allied Ships
CL Danae, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
CL Danae is sighted by SS I-124
SS I-124 launches 4 torpedoes[/font]
Thus in the end, it looks like I lost 1CL and 3DD in exchange for - well, what ? Good question. According to the reports, 2PB have been sunk and 1 BB, 2DD, 2PB and 2 xAK may be in trouble. If Haruna has taken a heavy hit, this would look like a victory to me, otherwise I'm not really sure.
In any case, I guess Ambon is not going to last much longer. Rattovolante really brought sufficient troops to take the place, quite a bunch of units for sure. Look what the bombardment attack showed:
[font="Courier New"]Ground combat at Ambon (76,109)
Allied Bombardment attack
Attacking force 1833 troops, 30 guns, 2 vehicles, Assault Value = 98
Defending force 9462 troops, 93 guns, 6 vehicles, Assault Value = 285
Congratulations brilliant light-unit sweep, and good result apart from I-124's lucky shoot. These sort of actions do a lot of damage to the Japanese, and also 'get into your opponents head'
DP.
When you see the Southern Cross, For the first time
You understand now, Why you came this way
thanks for the kind comments. Even though I still like my plan and think the outcome may have been in my favour, I would like to add a pointer to the bit of luck that is needed for AE surface combat and that was mostly on my side in this series of engagements. One really could not count on a torpedo hit each in the two engagements.
In fact, you mention another important point in your comment: getting into the opponent's head. I want to add a word or two in this direction, because in fact a consideration along this line was also responsible for my decision to commit here.
Presently, I believe that my opponent is following a very systematic approach (btw: Does anyone know whether the Ambon landing force composition corresponds to the "out of the box standard" or whether it has been reinforced by my opponent ?). Specifically, he relies heavily on bombardment runs to support his invasions (see e.g. my post re. developments in the north of the PI, but this reveals is just a fragment of the many bombardment runs he has been doing). In order to keep that amount of bombardment missions running, he is relying partly on CLs/DDs for bombardments, which can be fun if the position of a CD unit has been changed and they run into some 155mm guns[:D]...
but I'm still waiting for that to happen.
As pointed out in my earlier post, I went in because I assumed the heavy hitters were pulled back in order to reload. This was probably not in time to really hurt the invading troops - a day or two too late for that, but the idea was to stress the need to keep heavy surface units with sufficient ammo around or even as a part of the invasion TF, thus adding just one more constraint on his naval asset management, which will get more and more relevant as his expansion proceeds. I hope this will contribute to slowing him down a bit if he really sticks to the systematic approach.
As things may have turned out (if FOW does not fool me), the message "you need to protect your invasion TFs in addition to bombardment and suppression of guns on the shore while landing the troops" may have been transported more efficiently than I had hoped. After all, if Haruna is not in good shape, this may transport the message that a lone BB as support is not sufficient [8D].
But perhaps, Rattovolante just pretends to be systematic and thorough in order to surprise me with a change of op style. We'll see...
Your opponent has put together a composite brigade of Special Naval Landing Battalions (SNLF's), with engineer support for his operation against Ambon. Added to this force is what I assume are garrison troops of a Naval Guard Unit, along with a Naval Airfield Engineer Company. This Force your opponent has put together is pretty standard in the game, for this operation. The Japanese forces used historically were the Kure 1st SNLF, 1x company + engineers from Sasebo 1st SNLF, and the 228th Army Infantry Regiment.
DivePac.
When you see the Southern Cross, For the first time
You understand now, Why you came this way
ORIGINAL: Alfred
Well....I am still uncertain what the actual question was, but will make a few comments anyway.[:)]
Now, that's the true spirit of a free flowing German discussion ! Next, you need to get rid of the feeling that it is actually important what the actual question was, and you can join any talkshow or even politics over here.[;)]
Anyway, the direction of my original question was: Might it be that the generally assumed brakes that are put on Japanese expansion by AE are not quite as effective as everyone currently assumes because the reduced tact of operations is (less jumps per given time) is compensated at least partly by an ability to make bigger jumps ? But let's move this discussion to a later point of time and instead move to the defensibility of northern Australia/Northern Oz (is that term pc?) strategy discussion first. Before I get into it, I'll try to provide a few facts, starting with one which is potentially easy to neglect - with dire consequences:
Above, you see a comparison of the status of the 7th Australian Brigade on December 7th 1941 in AE (top half) and WitP (vanilla, bottom half). The ugly black boxes contain the stats of the dominant infantry as contained in the infantry database pasted into the respective pictures. I want to stress three things:
a) compare the yellow markers: Morale and experience of the unit in WitP were significantly better.
b) compare the red markers: The TOE in WitP is significantly less depleted and there are more items fit for duty than in AE.
It will take longer to get the unit back to full strength.
c) compare the blue markers: The anti-soft values of the infantry components in WitP were more than twice as high as the ones in AE. For comparison: I think IJA infantry's anti soft value has been cut from 21 (WitP) to 20 (AE).
These are typical values for the units available in Australia, there are very few exceptions.
What is the point I want to demonstrate with this statement ? Consider what you used to be able to do in WitP with an Australian brigade and assume that the above-mentioned factors influence what you can do in a linear way. That means you end up with 0.6 (exp)x0.8(TOE)x0.5(anti-soft) of what you could do in WitP with the unit, thus without considering morale effects less than a quarter of the combat value you used to get out of the unit.
In other words, I believe that you need serious amounts of time before can actually try to stand up and defend against the Japanese successfully. One of the best friends you currently have is the rest/train command, but in order for the training to start, you need to be fully prepped for the target.
This is an aspect we should bear in mind for the following discussion.
At the next opportunity, I'll provide more facts re. maps/bases and then get into the discussion in more detail. For tonight, however, this is it.
to provide some more hard data for the discussion (which will not be posted in the next few hours), I post a picture of northern oz in the versions of WitP that I have played - vanilla, Nemo's mod and AE, including port/airfield info.
After I had completed the picture I realized that I had actually cut off a base: two hexes south of Port Hedland, there is a dot base connected to P.H. by rail. That's an airfield suitable for significant expansion 0(6), I think, maybe 0(7), not sure right now. Anyway, now you are aware that it's there.
as Rattovolante has not supplied me with the game file so far (but he indicated that he was pretty busy during the week these days, so I am not worried, just a bit aching to play), I actually find the time to continue this discussion using some of the interesting issues Alfred and DivePac88 mentioned. Actually, by the time I continue this post I got the turn... thus, the post will be shorter than intended originally [:)]
ORIGINAL: Alfred
Regarding northern Australia. In WITP classic, generally speaking in 1942 northern Australia is indefensible against a determined Japanese attack.
A) agreed.
ORIGINAL: Alfred
In AE, I don't think the situation is quite as bad for the Allies and under certain circumstances an Allied reinforcement of the north makes a lot of sense. Consider the following factors:
(1) in classic WITP, Darwin was basically 100% dependent on sea transport for resupply.
B) I think that depends on the map one was playing - for any advanced map (e.g. Nemo's mod) I think that you are correct, but Vanilla was very generous relating to infrastructure in Northern Australia. I actually think the situation in AE may be worse than the one in vanilla WitP: There, you had planes which could conduct naval attacks successfully, a variety of bases enabling the use of bombers and ground units of a much higher quality to begin with.
ORIGINAL: Alfred
In AE, with the capacity of bases to pull supply (by nominating a specified supply level), in theory you should be able to set up a series of inland bases to act as pumping stations to push supply overland to the Top End;
C) Interesting point. I am currently experimenting with this type of supply-pumping, specifically in Burma in an attempt to get some supply into China, where it is needed desperately. At the same time, the question (to which I cannot yet provide an answer) is whether sufficient supply is generated in Australia to allow moving some of it towards Darwin early on. There is a number of bases which need supply early on, earlier than a convoy from the West Coast can possibly arrive. Thus currently I find myself exporting some supplies from Australia to places where I believe it may be important. Frankly, I have the feeling that I need to restrain myself doing that.
(2) resupply of Darwin by sea, whilst still potentially risky for the Allies in AE, is less risky than in classic because (a) Nells and Bettys (referred by jrcar as Netties, a term I rather like) will need the presence of an Air HQ in order to launch torpedoes, at least until captured bases are built up
(b) Japanese torpedo air operations (by the Netties) now consume more supply (the usual amount to launch level bombers plus that consumed by Air HQs to restock on torpedoes)
(c) air strikes on naval targets are now less powerful unless the unit in question has the relevant air skill
D)
i) Whereas I am not sure about the skill distribution in the Japanese air units (they had no problem to blow POW and Repulse out of the water), in general I agree. I would tend to add the aspect that it is much more difficult now to make a given unit fly on a regular basis and that I think that rotation of units is more difficult as well. There are planes that are grounded for maintenance or repair purpose for several days in a row now, and I think that such fragments are partly counted when determining the number of groups at a base.
ii) Note, however, that all of these aspects also hurt the Allied side when trying to defend against a Japanese invasion, and possibly even more so because a) air HQs are not that frequent in Australia early in the war and b) experience and skill levels of the bombers are quite bad. In WitP (at least Vanilla), just move a few Beauforts into a base and you could almost be certain they would make the enemy pay for moving in range of the base. These days may well be gone now.
Therefore, these changes actually work against the Allied defender in my opinion, making his job more difficult.
ORIGINAL: Alfred
(3) south of Darwin there is now a dot base which can be built up to a significant air base. Doing so provides the following advantages
(a) the Allies can disperse their airpower away from Darwin airfield onto nearby mutually supporting airfields
(b) no longer can Darwin by "nuked" by a sea bombardment which renders the entire Allied airpower (concentrated at Darwin due to lack of suitable nearby supporting air bases) hors de combat
(c) it allows the Allies a fortified fall back position if forced to withdraw from Darwin, with chances to block any further southward movement by the enemy whose Darwin port would remain within range of Allied interdiction
E)
i) I concur absolutely with 3(a) and 3(b).
ii) I am concerned about 3(c). All of this depends a bit on the time scale and thus (4) below, but generally speaking right now I believe that one of the major mistakes the Allied player can make is to use units that are not yet fit to fight (but will become fit to fight after upgrades and with sufficient preparation) in attempts to stop the Japanese too early. I believe you have to pick your fights (and the units you commit for these fights) much more carefully than in WitP. Do you want to try to hold PM ? Then that's where you need to put the few Australian assets that you can buy out and that are of slightly higher quality than the rest (exp 40). These are the ones which shoud receive the first Infantry upgrades then. All of this leads to a situation in which it takes a long time until you can put together a force which has a chance of holding against a determined Japanese attack unless you decide this is where you want to use the few good units you receive as reinforcements.
iii) There may be a further catch. I think the days of real quick buildup of a base may be gone. To get an AF to LVL3, so that it can support bombers, or 4 seems to take longer than before. The BFs don't have many engineers and engineer vehicles. I am presently looking quite desperately for suitable units to move to vital places in Australia whose AFs/ports/forts need to be improved If someone can suggest units to use, I'll be interested. Unfortunately, at least so far I did not find many. There are a few base forces at places where you don't need them, but a considerable number of these cannot be moved by land, so you need to buy them out to beable to ship them around or use air transport - but airlift capacity is significantly lower than it used to be in WitP.
ORIGINAL: Alfred
(4) in AE most Japanese players will be somewhat more cautious in conquering the DEI. This means that in Jan-Feb 1942, the Allied player will probably have a largely clear run to reinforce Darwin by sea with supply and troops.
F) This is an aspect which I consider frequently now (as indicated by my previous statement what my original question was).
i) First of all, I am not sure about the time scale.
ia)One thing that seems to occur quite consistently in the AARs I follow more or less regularly now is that in most cases Singapore and Luzon seem to be finished by about February (jrcar's and his companions admirable world defence being an exception and an exceptional performance, I need to recheck this AAR in more detail). That means, earlier than in WitP, even though the siege of the respective places tends to begin at a later point of time, freeing troops for other use at an earlier point of time.
ib) In addition, I believe that deep thrusts early on are possible in the DEI are now possible, as a matter of fact I would be concerned that the next jump after Ambon may be Darwin. The reason for this new possibilty is the fact that Naval attacks tend not even to score a lucky hit now and then any more and that it is difficult to keep surface TFs roaming because of the new requirements to get ammo for 8" and 6" guns. This also leads to the fact that some moves of TFs after battle may become quite predictable, thus superior surface assets, which Japan enjoys with Repulse and Renown sunk, or baby KB may be positioned accordingly (air threat to them is minimal).
ic) One of the aspects I really noticed when taking over 2ndACR's game agains Nemo is how much it can matter if the battlefield is segmented so that you have to start making detours. If Darwin is taken early on, I believe more and more that it hurts. Right now, I move some assets from the DEI towards Darwin first to move on towards SE Australia next. Then, they can be used to move stuff from the West Coast. I think that this is a much better suited place to use the assets than India. Of course, one may move via Perth, or via cape town round the world, but that's a much longer route.
ii) Also, I am concerned about the concerning the reinforcements -as mentioned above. the question is what you bring in. Marching Australians to the place will take a notable amount of time (not sure how much, did someone do this already and can provide a number) and only provide weak units, which will be broken easily. You could go for the British Brigades (53, 54, 55 IIRC) that enter the map from cape town, unless you want to use them elsewhere, they may in fact be a nasty surprise for the attacker.
ORIGINAL: DivePac88
About Supply; I would buildup Broome/Port Headland as support bases with fighter and ship refueling capabilities. I would run resupply convoys into Darwin with fighter cover, with the express purpose of cutting down the Netty population in the area. I think that in AE the Netty's are a bit more vulnerable, as they were historically.
G) I have noted Port Headland as a potentially interesting base as well; note that it, too, has a dot base that can be turned into a decent sized AF in close vicinity, thus it may be possible to defend it even if Broome is taken if one starts building there sufficiently early. Of course, the question is again what units may be used to start a buildup there. any suggestions, DivePac ?
Ok, that's it for now - I need to have a look at that turn in my mailbox [:)]
I' glad to report that the sunk ships screen lists IJN BB Haruna as sunk , along with 2 sunk PBs and 1 sunk DD. As mentioned previously, some more Japanese ships may be damaged, so perhaps losses will increase a bit more.
Evidently, some or all of this may be FOW, but I think I'll just go ahead and count the battles of Ambon/Namlea as the first Allied naval victory in this war.
Just two points on troop deployment for Darwin that you might, or might not be aware of:
#1 Black Force is a good steady Australian divisional Cavalry regiment that is based on Karachi, and is free to be lifted to Darwin in the time-frame needed.
#2 3rd Australian Infantry Brigade is an above average militia unit based on Broken hill, that can be moved overland to Darwin, arriving around the end of January.
Depac.
When you see the Southern Cross, For the first time
You understand now, Why you came this way
thanks for the hints. Black force - yeah, I noted that unit and intend to put it to good use in this first phase of the war, though presently it is not heading to Darwin. 3rd Australian Bde... well, I had earmarked it for PM. But looking at the marching distances, you are correct in that it may be a good idea to use units from the Pt Augusta, Adelaide region to reinforce the northern coast.
What do you think about using the Australian cavalry regiments for that purpose ? Actually, I am also quite interested in reshuffling the base forces. If there's top secret information you won't share on the forums, there's always the PM button [;)].
As I have managed to send the turn back yesterday evening, maybe I will sit down sometime today and make a list of Australian units which I think may be moved and their status and post it. Not a promise, just a vague statement of intention, of course [;)] Maybe we can identify another gem or two.
Generally speaking, I am still not 100% sure whether I truly want to commit at Darwin/Northern Australia, but weighing the options can't be wrong.
Concerning base forces; there are 2x large RAN base forces that I build-up from component units:
#1 3rd RANbase force from the Albany RAN BF, Carnavon RAN BF, and the Geraldton RAN BF. I base this BF on Perth along side the 4th RANbase force for a start, then when I buildup Broome I move it there.
2# 5th RANbase force from the Bowen RAN BF, Bundaberg RAN BF, and the Rockhampton RAN BF. I base this BF on Sydney permanently, as Sydney does not have any Naval support (which in my book it needs,because of having a shipyard), as it only has a RAAF BF.
DivePac.
When you see the Southern Cross, For the first time
You understand now, Why you came this way
.
, along with 2 sunk PBs and 1 sunk DD. As mentioned previously, some more Japanese ships may be damaged, so perhaps losses will increase a bit more.