Manila or Pearl-new paradigm?

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: sfbaytf

Curious to what the thoughts are on the airpower that is left untouched on Oahu when you don't attack Pearl Harbor. It would probably cost PP's to change commands to deploy, but the airpower, plus the ships left intact is quite a force. 

You're right, sfbaytf. I haven't been able to get around this. That's a serious bunch of intact airframes that you're leaving on the table by failing to attack the Pearl airframes on turn one. Say 40-50 P-40s and a large number of PBYs too? Yep. That's a detriment to the plan and provides the Allies a nice starter pool of fighters for the fight.

With the crummy quality of USN and USAA aviators initially, do you think those P-40 squadrons would be instantly deployed or would most players train them up so they could be useful in resistance? If the former, they're meat on the table for the early IJNAF and IJAAF pilot advantage. If the latter, they're out of the picture for a few months whilest they train up. But, yes, they are going to be dealt with earlier than historical because of the pools available to them.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: sfbaytf

Curious to what the thoughts are on the airpower that is left untouched on Oahu when you don't attack Pearl Harbor. It would probably cost PP's to change commands to deploy, but the airpower, plus the ships left intact is quite a force. 

You're right, sfbaytf. I haven't been able to get around this. That's a serious bunch of intact airframes that you're leaving on the table by failing to attack the Pearl airframes on turn one. Say 40-50 P-40s and a large number of PBYs too? Yep. That's a detriment to the plan and provides the Allies a nice starter pool of fighters for the fight.

To me, it is simply the air frames, not the groups per se. Allies are so starved for airframes until late 42 when the replacement rates start to move up, and those P-40 and Catalina's are what you need most in the early war. They represent a couple of months production, or in the case of the Catalina's, several months production. So leaving those untouched is tough.

[ny59giants]

Manila will allow some useful options. This assumes a non-historical first turn.

1) Position on west side of Luzon and then move in masse or split up to support a landing at Mersing around Dec 10th.
2) Many now play with a HR that doesn't allow strategic bombing until mid-43. Thus, the 5th Division which is in multiple TF at Samah can be moved around into 1 TF for either Mersing OR Palembang.
3) KB could support a quick invasion of Java.
a) I have thought of allowing only three divisions being used in Malaya to drive south to Singapore.
b) Meanwhile, the other 3 to 5 free divisions could take southern Sumatra and Java quickly, especially with KB in the area.
4) Allied subs may not kill large warships, but they can put them out of the war for a few months.

The bad news is what is to prevent the Americans from being aggressive in the eastern Pacific??
1) The Marshalls are relatively weak and the Americans could take it or at the least make it very difficult for the Japanese to defend
2) Pago Pago, Suva, and Noumea can be reinforced relatively cheaply and allow the Allies to solidify their SLOC to Australia.
3) All those undamaged PBYs will wing their way to the SRA and be used to evac and/or move LCUs around.
4) Put those slow BBs in a SC TF could take on some Japanese SC TF. I would send them to Australia and then try to get into surface combat. Even if they are sunk, I can hope to take down a few BBs and CAs along the way. I'll take that trade.

Just my $.02

[Chickenboy]

Great post, ny59giants. Creative use of the early KB in the DEI. Here's how I would look at these bad news options:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

The bad news is what is to prevent the Americans from being aggressive in the eastern Pacific??
1) The Marshalls are relatively weak and the Americans could take it or at the least make it very difficult for the Japanese to defend

mini-KB plus some assistance from land-based Netties (Kwaj) may be sufficient here to stem the tide against all but the most directed attack.

2) Pago Pago, Suva, and Noumea can be reinforced relatively cheaply and allow the Allies to solidify their SLOC to Australia.

I think that having KB completely away from these bases would make it easier / 'cheaper' to reinforce them, provided that the Allied player acts quickly to fill the void.

3) All those undamaged PBYs will wing their way to the SRA and be used to evac and/or move LCUs around.

Meh. It will take a week or so to get the PBYs sent to the DEI. Do you really think that most Allied players will jump on the opportunity to send all available PBYs to the DEI or do you think that they would reinforce bases on the LOC to Australia instead? I would guess the latter.

4) Put those slow BBs in a SC TF could take on some Japanese SC TF. I would send them to Australia and then try to get into surface combat. Even if they are sunk, I can hope to take down a few BBs and CAs along the way. I'll take that trade.

The more those old slow BBs are at sea sniffing around for a fight, the more likely they are to catch a TT from a sub (or worse) lying in wait. In one of my PBEMs, one of my opponents elected to go sniffing around with a reinforced SCTF near Gili Gili in January 1942. Problem was that homey didn't want to play that game-mini KB was there to settle the issue from afar. One old BB sunk with 5xTTs, another limping towards home with 2xTT hits through sub-infested waters.

If the allied player loses this 'might as well try' trade-which I propose they will often do, then you've got your PH attack on the cheap there by sinking a few or badly damaging a few old BBs.

[John 3rd]

I have voiced my opinion on this topic MANY times and I believe it is a case of hitting BOTH targets on Dec 7th.  I'll gladly split KB and hit Pearl with 4 CVs and nail Manila with 2 CV and Mini-KB.  Net result sees the Battleline damaged and out of the picture for enough time AND a number of SS gone forever.  Sinking those SS has a much stronger impact on the long-term then does sinking an old BB or two...
 
Before Castor and others go off regarding attaining surprise in both attacks, remember in the 2x2 we have running right now allowances were made for that.  Fighters at Manila were allowed to be set for CAP and a random number of SS were allowed to be formed up in TF (turn time stamp x 2 for SS allowed into TF).  Made no difference to the attack.
 
In Mike and I's upcoming AAR (Reluctant Admiral) using my new Mod we will follow the same HR for the double attacks. 

[ny59giants]

There is only Claudes in the Marshalls at start. You need a size 7 AF and 20k in supply to upgrade to Zeros. The closest base is Takao or Tokyo. You want to have Mini-KB defending the eastern Pacific is OK in my book.

3 American CVs vs Mini-KB. I'll take that as the Allied player. [;)]

I've learned the use of PBYs to move troops around from following Nemo's old AAR in WITP. Many players don't use them this way, but I would.

I'm playing Japan for the second time and have learned many of their weaknesses.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

I have voiced my opinion on this topic MANY times and I believe it is a case of hitting BOTH targets on Dec 7th.  I'll gladly split KB and hit Pearl with 4 CVs and nail Manila with 2 CV and Mini-KB.  Net result sees the Battleline damaged and out of the picture for enough time AND a number of SS gone forever.  Sinking those SS has a much stronger impact on the long-term then does sinking an old BB or two...

Before Castor and others go off regarding attaining surprise in both attacks, remember in the 2x2 we have running right now allowances were made for that.  Fighters at Manila were allowed to be set for CAP and a random number of SS were allowed to be formed up in TF (turn time stamp x 2 for SS allowed into TF).  Made no difference to the attack.

In Mike and I's upcoming AAR (Reluctant Admiral) using my new Mod we will follow the same HR for the double attacks. 

Yes, John, you have voiced your opinion on this topic MANY times. As I have mentioned previously, your HRs in the Philipines do not override the hard-coded first turn Allied CAP limitations / hard settings. Point being: whatever 'allowances' you offer to the Allies to permit first turn Manila / Clark CAP settings, the game hardcodes to 'nerf' them on December 7-8. Result: CAP don't fly as Allies have been told to expect.

Also, your allowances do not offset temporal metaphysical realities, as I have pointed out before. To whit: you assume surprise where there cannot be, due to the time zone differences. Assuming that surprise will exist in a game because, IRL, someone screwed the pooch big time is granting yourself too much benefit at the expense of your opponent.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

There is only Claudes in the Marshalls at start. You need a size 7 AF and 20k in supply to upgrade to Zeros. The closest base is Takao or Tokyo. You want to have Mini-KB defending the eastern Pacific is OK in my book.

OK, so I've got to wait a bit before updating my Claudes from Kwajalein. That limits my offensive striking power somewhat, but it doesn't completely pull my teeth.

3 American CVs vs Mini-KB. I'll take that as the Allied player. [;)]

You wanna come within Nell / Claude range of Kwajalein with mini-KB backing? Bring it on. I'll trade you a couple of CVLs for three of your fleet CVs any day of the week.

[ny59giants]

You wanna come within Nell / Claude range of Kwajalein with mini-KB backing? Bring it on. I'll trade you a couple of CVLs for three of your fleet CVs any day of the week.

Your going to marry Mini-KB to the Marshalls for how long?? One or two months??

You have left the whole of the American fleet intact and this is going to stop me?? I have ideas on how your defense can be defeated, but I rather wait until I play the Allies against John to present them.

[OldCanuck]

Playing against the AI, I have tried it both ways. Using Bettys and Nells, I usually destroy 20 SS in Manila (hitting Manila with everything several days running). With the KB I don't do much better than that. For me the deciding factor is the number of aircraft destroyed. An attack on PH (with Zeros and Sallys hitting airfields in the PI) generates much higher total allied aircraft loses. Hitting PH two days running will usually kill around 6 BBs and a lot of other ships as well.

[zace]

your allowances do not offset temporal metaphysical realities, as I have pointed out before. To whit: you assume surprise where there cannot be, due to the time zone differences. Assuming that surprise will exist in a game because, IRL, someone screwed the pooch big time is granting yourself too much benefit at the expense of your opponent.

From Wiki (instead of typing a lot myself)

After news reached the Philippines that an was in progress at around 03:00 a.m. local time on 8 December 1941 FEAF interceptors had already conducted an air search for incoming aircraft reported shortly after midnight, but these had been Japanese scout planes reporting weather conditions.

At 05:00 a.m. FEAF commander Gen. Brereton reported to USAFFE headquarters where he attempted to see MacArthur without success. He recommended to MacArthur's chief of staff, Brig. Gen. Richard Sutherland, that FEAF launch bombing missions against Formosa in accordance with Rainbow 5 war plan directives that Japanese territory from which an attack was likely to come be attacked. Authorization was withheld, but shortly afterward, in response to a telegram from General George C. Marshall instructing MacArthur to implement Rainbow 5, Brereton was ordered to have a strike in readiness for later approval.

Through a series of disputed discussions and decisions, authorization for the first raid was not approved until 11:00 a.m. local time for an attack just before sunset, with a followup raid at dawn the next day. In the meantime Japanese plans to bomb FEAF's main bases was delayed by fog at its Formosa bases, so that only a small scale mission attacked targets in the northern tip of Luzon. At 08:00 a.m. Brereton received a telephone call from General Henry H. Arnold warning him not to allow his aircraft to be attacked while still on the ground. FEAF launched fighter patrols and all of its bombers on Luzon between 08:00 and 09:00 a.m. as a precautionary move. However several confusing and false reports of air attacks culminated in an all-clear being announced at 11:00, at which time the bombers were ordered to land and prepare for the afternoon raid on Formosa. The squadron of defending P-40 fighters patrolling the area also landed at Clark Field to refuel.

At 11:20 a.m., the radar post at Iba Field detected the incoming raid while it was still 130 miles out. It alerted FEAF headquarters and the command post at Clark Field, a warning which apparently reached only the pursuit group commander, with no further action taken to safeguard the air forces.

When the Japanese pilots of the 11th Air Fleet attacked Clark Field at 12:30 p.m., they caught two squadrons of B-17s dispersed on the ground and its squadron of P-40 interceptors just preparing to taxi. The first wave of twenty-seven Japanese twin-engine bombers achieved complete tactical surprise, striking the P-40s as they taxied. A second bomber attack was supported by Zero fighters strafing the field that destroyed 12 of the 17 American heavy bombers present and seriously damaged three others. Only three P-40s managed to take off. A simultaneous attack on the auxiliary field at Iba to the northwest was also successful: all but two of the 3rd Pursuit Squadron's P-40s, short on fuel, were destroyed in combat or from lack of gasoline when the attack caught them in their landing pattern. The Far East Air Force lost fully half its planes in the first attack, and was all but destroyed over the next few days.

Not to mention they are only 7 hours apart....  Are you saying that the Japanese were incapable of using a clock to coordinate them within a little?  Or that the attack on PH would not have worked had it been a little later in the day?

Remember pearl was set so early so they could raid more times than they did....  If I am not allowed to strike multiple targets as IJ then the allies are not allowed to issue any orders including cap to any units at or within range of PH so I can make the decision to re-sortie the aircraft on the 7th (on that side of the date line)

Surprise is by definition making someone else screw the pooch.  It could be said that the Allies were so surprised that they were incapable of not messing up on 7 DEC 41

Who ever came up with the idea that Japan could not hit Manila and PH?  THEY DID.... they just didn't target the docks at both.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

You wanna come within Nell / Claude range of Kwajalein with mini-KB backing? Bring it on. I'll trade you a couple of CVLs for three of your fleet CVs any day of the week.

Your going to marry Mini-KB to the Marshalls for how long?? One or two months??

You have left the whole of the American fleet intact and this is going to stop me?? I have ideas on how your defense can be defeated, but I rather wait until I play the Allies against John to present them.

Whoa, Nelly. Where on Earth did I say that I intended to hold off the entirety of the American fleet with mini-KB and some Nells / Claudes at Kwajalein?

You posited about a 3 US CV versus mini-KB with Nells/Claudes out of Kwajalein. I'll take that try.

You wanna throw in the entire US Fleet? Cool. Congratulations, you beat me at Kwajalein and killed two of my CVLs. While you were pointlessly flexing your muscle on some god-forsaken island in the middle of nowhere with your *entire* fleet, I took Suva, New Caledonia, Port Moresby, Suva, Pago Pago and a couple other islands critical to your LOC. I also took North island of New Zealand, drank all their beer and left. Can't be everywhere at once, I guess.

[ny59giants]

You wanna throw in the entire US Fleet? Cool. Congratulations, you beat me at Kwajalein and killed two of my CVLs. While you were pointlessly flexing your muscle on some god-forsaken island in the middle of nowhere with your *entire* fleet, I took Suva, New Caledonia, Port Moresby, Suva, Pago Pago and a couple other islands critical to your LOC. I also took North island of New Zealand, drank all their beer and left. Can't be everywhere at once, I guess.

I'll take the capture of all the Marshalls vs those bases in early 42. I'll be threatening both Truk and the Marianas very early in the war. My LOC to Australia will have to go through the off map bases, but time is on the Allies side.

[AW1Steve]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I should have mentioned in my original post that I would not consider surprise port attacks on BOTH sides of the international date line (e.g., PH and Manila) in the name of fairness. It's an either / or for me.

You could always send your "rampaging killer torpedo carrying Emily's"! [:D]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I should have mentioned in my original post that I would not consider surprise port attacks on BOTH sides of the international date line (e.g., PH and Manila) in the name of fairness. It's an either / or for me.

You could always send your "rampaging killer torpedo carrying Emily's"! [:D]

Shhh!!! It's a secret![:-][:D]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

You wanna throw in the entire US Fleet? Cool. Congratulations, you beat me at Kwajalein and killed two of my CVLs. While you were pointlessly flexing your muscle on some god-forsaken island in the middle of nowhere with your *entire* fleet, I took Suva, New Caledonia, Port Moresby, Suva, Pago Pago and a couple other islands critical to your LOC. I also took North island of New Zealand, drank all their beer and left. Can't be everywhere at once, I guess.

I'll take the capture of all the Marshalls vs those bases in early 42. I'll be threatening both Truk and the Marianas very early in the war. My LOC to Australia will have to go through the off map bases, but time is on the Allies side.

Gosh that's swell. Too bad Sydney and Brisbane fell whilest you were dawdling in the Gilberts and threatening Truk.

Look, this is pointless. You say potato, I say tomato. There's more than one way the war can play itself out, ny59giants.

OT: It probably won't help the conversation to mention that I grew up a Cowboys fan, having lived in Dallas for a number of years, so I'll avoid saying how much I disdain the NY Giants. [;)]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: zace

Not to mention they are only 7 hours apart....  Are you saying that the Japanese were incapable of using a clock to coordinate them within a little?  Or that the attack on PH would not have worked had it been a little later in the day?

The attack at Pearl was just after 7am Honolulu. That's midnight Manila. I'll accept a surprise NIGHT port attack as being roughly the same time. Wanna do that? Probably not. You're looking for a daylight MORNING phase attack. Manila has time to scramble. Just because they didn't IRL, dithered, and were destroyed on the runway doesn't mean that IJ players should be afforded the assumption of gross incompetence demonstrated by the Allied air command, Phillipines on that day.

Remember pearl was set so early so they could raid more times than they did....  If I am not allowed to strike multiple targets as IJ then the allies are not allowed to issue any orders including cap to any units at or within range of PH so I can make the decision to re-sortie the aircraft on the 7th (on that side of the date line)

I'm sorry, but I honestly don't understand what you're trying to say here.

Surprise is by definition making someone else screw the pooch.  It could be said that the Allies were so surprised that they were incapable of not messing up on 7 DEC 41

I would like to distinguish between gross incompetence and surprise. There is a distinction. One can 'give' the IJ player a first strike surprise. To also 'give' them first day morning phase incompetence is an unjustifiable boon, IMO. I've not seen that selector switch on setup.

Who ever came up with the idea that Japan could not hit Manila and PH?  THEY DID.... they just didn't target the docks at both.

It's not a problem of hitting Manila AND PH. Any smart IJ player will certainly hit both-eventually. The question is whether the PI hit can occur with surprise on morning phase of turn one. You can blast Manila to kingdom come on days 2-the end of the war if you like and that's perfectly reasonable.

[ny59giants]

OT: It probably won't help the conversation to mention that I grew up a Cowboys fan, having lived in Dallas for a number of years, so I'll avoid saying how much I disdain the NY Giants.[;)]

I'm from Upstate NY and now live in the NE corner of Tennessee. When I moved here I didn't know that a certain TE, Jason Whiten, for the Cowboys was from here. No wonder I get dirty looks when I wear my Giants gear around town. [:D]

The other comments were just idle chit chat, but this now means a state of war now exist between us. [:D]

What do you think of the trade to the Deadskins of McNabb??

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

I have voiced my opinion on this topic MANY times and I believe it is a case of hitting BOTH targets on Dec 7th.  I'll gladly split KB and hit Pearl with 4 CVs and nail Manila with 2 CV and Mini-KB.  Net result sees the Battleline damaged and out of the picture for enough time AND a number of SS gone forever.  Sinking those SS has a much stronger impact on the long-term then does sinking an old BB or two...

Before Castor and others go off regarding attaining surprise in both attacks, remember in the 2x2 we have running right now allowances were made for that.  Fighters at Manila were allowed to be set for CAP and a random number of SS were allowed to be formed up in TF (turn time stamp x 2 for SS allowed into TF).  Made no difference to the attack.

In Mike and I's upcoming AAR (Reluctant Admiral) using my new Mod we will follow the same HR for the double attacks. 

Yes, John, you have voiced your opinion on this topic MANY times. As I have mentioned previously, your HRs in the Philipines do not override the hard-coded first turn Allied CAP limitations / hard settings. Point being: whatever 'allowances' you offer to the Allies to permit first turn Manila / Clark CAP settings, the game hardcodes to 'nerf' them on December 7-8. Result: CAP don't fly as Allies have been told to expect.

Also, your allowances do not offset temporal metaphysical realities, as I have pointed out before. To whit: you assume surprise where there cannot be, due to the time zone differences. Assuming that surprise will exist in a game because, IRL, someone screwed the pooch big time is granting yourself too much benefit at the expense of your opponent.

Yes--and despite all your points--the Japanese still achieved total surprise that day in 1941.

I hold that Singapore would be completely different because the British were PREPARED and reasonably led. The Americans were not and they paid for it. It is a specious argument to hold forth about 'temporal metaphysical realities' when the truth is IT HAPPENED for real.

It is a boon to offer these HR to the American player. You don't have to when the reality of the actual events prove out the probable success of an attack.

Good use of Wiki Zace.

[Q-Ball]

I will go back to original topic rather than the McNabb trade, interesting as that is....

Assuming only one port strike is kosher (which I feel), I am in the Pearl camp. BBs are important in AE, moreso than in WITP. I appreciate the impact of sinking a bunch of subs, but in 1942, when it counts, sunken USN subs mean nothing (torps don't work anyway), and damaging or sinking 8 BBs means a ton. You just can't leave the BB fleet alone.

Also compared to WITP, the BBs you damage instead of sink are out of action alot longer. In my PBEM, I am STILL repairing Pearl damage, and it's almost mid-1943.

Even if you sink nothing, all the Pearl BBs will take meaningful damage.

Sure, 2 port attacks are better than one, but I think that's not kosher given the date line differences.