Stalingrad (In Progess AAR)

[Obsolete]

8 PM -- Sept 14

Hmm, I still cant crack through very well on the Left flanks, though there are a few decent sized holes I had started to develop a while ago.  But it is annoying that so many singe companies at level four disruption are managing to hold me back.  Hmm!!  This is definitely a case that needs to be hosted on tonight’s “Unsolved Mysteries of the Universe” show.  

“I see it, and yet I still can’t believe it.”  Now, I haven’t said a line like that since the Uri Geller days.

One little issue that is my fault, is I’ve been a little sloppy with the HQ units.  I should be digging them in to at least get a little extra contact bonus.  To be honest, I don’t have much problems with contact so I haven’t worried about it much, but that shouldn’t be no excuse.  If I ever manage to lose the initiative, I’m sure I’d be paying for it many times over.

So, it looks like the last couple hours of daylight have been finished now.  And we will start our first night-time phase in the next set.  I guess if we are going to infiltrate anywhere, it is better now than ever.  

I think I will most likely still try to carry out a few more assaults, despite the extra pesky quality checks I’m going to have to go through.  And BTW, in case I didn’t mention somewhere earlier, this scenario has Soft Ground on, so that’s another penalty for my tanks that I would rather do without.

[Alan Sharif]

true [:)]

[Obsolete]

I apologize for not updating this AAR as of late. It’s not that I lost interest (as many AAR’s go), but being the grog-nard that I am, it seems apparent to me that something was off with me not getting proper kills on some of these Ruskies.

I’ve sent a save and some details to the programmer for closer examination after going over some of the data. Though there is a good chance it isn’t a flaw with the program itself, but could be a small glitch in the scenario file. This is after all, a NEW scenario. But that’s just one of the many reasons why beta testing takes place.

In the meantime, I decided to take some closer examination at some of the Anti-Tank combats in order to try and set up my own decisions to be a little more optimal. I’m more interested in AT here during the DIRECT FIRE phase.

To start with the basics, all units capable of AT Direct Fire, can do so from 1 to 3 hexes in distance. That’s a max of 1.5Km. Sound realistic? I’m not really related to Rommel so I don’t know! But since the developer(s) have much more experience in this field, I will simply trust them on this.

Naturally, there is a penalty for the distance. And after doing a little bit of Excel examination, it seems the biggest penalty you pay is crossing the gap from the first hex, to the second across. It’s still painful when shooting 3 hexes away, but the difference between 2 & 3 is not as much as 1 & 2. Makes sense to me.

Here’s a quick chart (yeah, I know mathematicians all hate the 3-D charts).



The vertical axis is the Hit Number. To make things more simple, it’s basically the percentage chance to HIT a score against an enemy unit.

So, if our attack strength is less then 15 in total, we would still be able to have an 80% chance of actually hitting an enemy units (at a distance of 1 hex). Now, if that same company was shooting 2 hexes away, that rapidly drops off to just 30%. If now we shot at 3 hexes away, we are left with only a 10% chance.

Now you COULD look at these numbers in two separate ways. Technically you’re three times as likely to get a hit at 2 hexes away, than at 3 hexes. And you are a little less than three times as likely to get a hit at 1 hex, versus 2 hexes. (are you with me still?).

However, looking at the percentage difference as a whole, you lose 50% accuracy on the first step, while only 20% drops on the last. So look at those numbers which ever way you prefer.

Now, bear in mind, scoring a hit here on the random die roll (1-to-100 face die), you don’t automatically get a kill. You are instead forwarded down to another algorithm to determine what damage you actually did occur. Beware that while this other algorithm may score kills, often it will cause quality checks instead, and sometimes neither (no damage occurred).

But that my fellow grog-nards, is for another post I think…

[Obsolete]

Well, last time we covered the percentage chance to inflict a HIT.  Now it’s time to look more into what damage gets caused from a hit.

Again, this depends on distance.  We take our total AT Strength which originally was a combination of quality and other things, and now we multiply it by either 1.0, 0.85, or 0.66 depending on the range (in hexes).

This gives us the KILL NUMBER.  Then we roll a 1-50 face dice and add this to our KILL NUMBER which gives us the FINAL KILL NUMBER.

So for example, an AT strength of 15, trying to give direct fire at 1 hex distance, would give us first of all, an 82% chance to actually hit the target.

After this, our kill number would be the same (15 * 1.0).

Our Final Kill number would be the random roll (1 to 50) added to the Kill N., which let’s assume will be +25 as an average.  Thus we’d expect to end up around 15 + 25 = 40 for our Kill N.

Now we must compare this to the opponent’s armour rating.  A common tank value I see in the Stalingrad scenario puts units at a value of 35 for this.  Lower if you’re looking at Stugs, and lower still for scout vehicles.

So, on average we can expect to get 5 more points above the armour rating, but keep in mind these are just averages and can change a lot depending on that random roll.

The reason knowing we have 5 points about the armour rating is important, is because your damage you deliver is due to how many points you have higher than the armour rating.

Between +5 and +15 our opponent does a quality check.
Between +16 and +30 our opponent does a QC but at a 10% disadvantage.
Anything above +30 scores one kill of a platoon.
And anything else… causes no effect.

Therefore, in the case our Final Kill # was 40, we’d force our opponent into a quality check, and that would be the end of that.  

Some further examination shows, that at a Strength of 15, even if we rolled a perfect 50 for our FKN (Final Kill Number), we would be just a fraction too short from being able to score any kills, so the best we could hope for was to get some 10% Qcs on our opponent to force them into disruptions.

This is probably too much information being said too quick, but at least it may be a refresher for some.  As always, manuals are important (at least good ones)!

[BAL]

Intersting observations on AT fire. I look forward to more of your AAR.

[Obsolete]

Well, there is actually some more details that I could cram into the description of the AT (Direct Fire) phase, but I think I’ll report now directly regarding the AAR.  I will most likely be continuing it again pretty soon.  Today I received an email from the dev(s) regarding the particular glitch that had caused me to halt:

At some point the game moved from a max of 250 units to 500, however I was still using a char variable (max 256) to track where the hits were going.  Stalingrad's defenders were all above the 270 range so the hits were being applied to random units, essentially getting lost.  

Usually this info is locked under NDA and Cloak&Dagger SPOOK stuff, but I think in light of good-natured spirit to war gamers, and future fans, I believe the world won’t stop turning. [;)]

Well there you have it.  I had spun through EVERY single SMALL map scenario, except for the Stalingrad.  And yet Murphy’s Law pops up again.  When I FINALLY decide to do a public AAR, that’s precisely when a problem of this nature arises.  Seems to be no way of getting around Murphy, but at least I’m happy it’s THAT SIMPLE and we can move on soon.

As you can see, there are an awful lot of counters in this scenario, and in fact that’s the particular reason why I had been saving it as last for running through the SMALL-MAP series.  A good lesson here is that just because a map is small, doesn’t mean it’s so simple.  

Now, where were we again in our Anti-Tank & Direct Fire Phase discussion….

[Obsolete]

10 PM -- Sept. 14

Boy, it’s been a while.  I threw in the updated fix and decided to give it a go.  Quite some noticeable difference; we were able to turn-n-burn off some companies, despite doing night-time assaults.  Ones we did not, we at least damaged quite a bit.  In exchange, the weakened Reds couldn’t do much, except costing me a single squad from a lucky artillery hit.

Anyhow, I probably still have some catch-up to do, after the new communist reinforcements entered the map, but I think it should be an easy enough job from here on in…. I THINK!

Rules for FoW have changed a bit due to night-time operations, and that has an effect on my attacks, not to mention I have to carry out more Q-Checks at night as well.

Since the turns in evenings go by every 4 hours instead of 2, we’ll resume operations at 2 am.

[Obsolete]

2 A.M. -- Sept. 15

Well, a new day (umm, night).   There should be a noticable difference in remaining Reds during the night-time operation.  I felt pretty good on the mop-job though, though there were a few occasions where I was not so happy.  For example, I moved a tank company in position to assault in the East and direct-fire caused me to lose two platoons in it right away, and IIRC I may have taken more DF hits.  I then backed down from certain assaults I had been planning.

But over all, it was another turn with decent progress.

Now that sun-rise has just come out, we can see the new stacks down south of Russian Guards that had come.  This may be a problem as I don’t think the AI will be foolish enough to leave the protection of the city hexes.  But if they don’t come out of the city, I’ll just have to bring my units into the area myself.  

We will probably be in the thick of city fighting before nightfall (I guesstimate)?

Anyhow, older nerds will be happy to note that the text-panel for the battle-log has been extended lengthwise a little in this re-release, so no more having important information being truncated off all the time.

[Obsolete]

6 A.M. -- Sept. 15

As can be seen, the Red army cut off in the northern section is beyond any hope for them.  Even if the AI had a priority of trying to break out at all costs, it would be hopeless now.  I’d bet my life on it.

The current scenario also is reminding me a lot of high school biology classes.  I’m seeing that familiar uncanny resemblance to Surface Area & Volume here.  Each turn the Red Army is allowing more flanks to get exposed, which continues to rapidly spiral out of control against them.  BTW, for each additional hex I can attack from, I get an additional 10% bonus to my assaults.  So over all, a totally surrounded unit can suffer up to a 50% penalty, not to mention a total of 9 platoons stacked in each hex.

Down near the city tiles, slowly they are getting bombed out.  By the end of this scenario, there won’t be that many houses left standing.  But we shall see, I still have no concrete understanding on how this scenario is SUPPOSED to end.  I am positive the axis should be fighting an up hill battle, but so far, I think I WILL change communist history the way things are going.  

[Obsolete]

8 A.M. -- Sept. 15

As can be expected, the Northern pocket of Reds continues to crumble and disintegrate.  This is actually becoming quite fun.

Down south, most fighting is carried out just outside the city walls.  Most fighting in the city is vs. very weakend units.  I’ve been able to rely on artillery to help out a lot in softening up targets (and a few extra kills) but with cities having a defense value of 7, that’s no longer going to apply very well.

Ironically, I don’t even have enough objectives captured yet to count for even a marginal victory.  However, this should change next turn.  I also should have the rest of the northern pocket 100% eliminated long before nightfall sets in.  

[Obsolete]

10 A.M. -- Sept. 15

Another decent turn-around.  The only issue that is giving me problems at this point, is the defensive terrain.  There are a few worrisome stacks down south, but due to the size of them, we can conclude that each company has most likely a single platoon.  And now that I have close-up vision, that indeed turns out to be the case.

I forgot to mention, I had used up just about all my air-strikes again at 6-o’clock in the morning.  So I have to wait until tomorrow before I get to call those strikes again.  

My Croatian units don’t even have a scratch on them so far.  Though it’s possible I may have lost an entire company worth very early in this scenario, I just can’t remember for sure now.

[Obsolete]

Lunch -- Sept. 15

Not sure what to say about this turn.  It was the same old routine again.  Keep tightening the chains, and getting those badly disrupted units back to strength again.

It may not look like much happened, but I assure you I’m still crushing the Ruskies in kills right now.

[Obsolete]

2 P.M. -- Sept. 15

There is only one tank company left in the Northern pocket.  Three other counters there are just Hqs.  I was tempted to try and exploit some game mechanics to keep the Hqs trapped to mess with communications, but it looks like the AI may be a little too smart for that and is re-assigning command structures.  Not 100% sure yet.

Against the Volga river, I am unstoppable.  Anything the Reds have that they try to put up against me (or even use to block) is just going to be whittled away.  It makes me wonder how this scenario can last till September the 26’th.

I checked the OOB, and while there will still be quite a few re-inforcements coming to Stalingrad, the Russians are simple going to be adding far too little now… and far too late.  I THINK!

Maybe I really am the smartest tactician in the world.  Hmm…..

[Obsolete]

4 P.M.  --  Sept. 15

The war has gone excellent the last couple hours.  We have 100% eliminated all remaining counters from the northern pocket.  As strange as it may seem, the only Russians left are restricted to this small area here, and I will most likely have total victory before nightfall.  Then I guess I just sit tight after that and wait for their reinforcements to arrive?

I don’t see how I could possibly lose this one from here.

BTW, the numbers on the counters are not ATT/DEF.  I was using DIV/REG to keep track of my command structures better.

[Obsolete]

6 P.M.  -- Sept. 15

Getting closer.  We are just…. About there.

No need for me to target after the Hqs at this point again.  I just need to nail off their subordinate units.

I also shuffled around some units in the north toward the Volga river to meet future reinforcements.  Also the turn before I had already moved up some self-propelled artillery, as their range isn’t as great as the towed variety.

This time I switched to ATT/DEF values for the counters.

[Obsolete]

8 P.M. -- Sept. 15

Well, looks like I am just a few hits still too short from moping up these Ruskies.  

And I was so hoping to have this completed before nightfall.  Oh well, I’ll dislodge them next turn, or the turn after (I think!).

Notice now the Southern counters have just converted to FoW status due to the night.  It doesn’t matter much, I know what’s in there.  I will have to pass an additional Q-Check on my next assaults, and also that tiny river is no doubt causing some little problems.  

But lets see what happens… at least the turns are MUCH quicker now with so fewer enemy counters to worry about.

[Obsolete]

10 P.M.  -- Sept. 15

Hmm!!

This tiny last bit is still taking longer than I thought.  

At least I knocked out another HQ counter just so I could move onto another victory hex.  There is one more victory hex left, which will then put me at the Decisive Victory rank.  Of course, I still have to hold that by the scenario’s end to be worth anything.

[Obsolete]

2 A.M.  -- Sept. 16

Two o’clock in the morning, and my companies are still fighting   That doesn’t sound very realistic now does it!!?  But whatever, I’m pushing everything as hard as I can here.

So…. Down to the last damn hex now, and it’s already the 16’th, I thought I’d have all the current commies wrapped up yesterday.  So….. Lets see if I can at least finish this job at 6 am.

[Obsolete]

6 A.M.  -- Sept. 16

Well, finally!  We crushed those last two headquarters, and then I moved into the last capturable victory hex.  And now, all is quiet on the eastern front… unbelievable.  

Somehow, I have done 100x better than Guderian, and I don’t know how.  I guess I am just that smart.

As a final ironic twist, the Russians finally won the initiative, right at the turn they lost EVERYTHING.  Well, that’s not really a coincidence, but more on how the initiative mechanics work, if you think it through.

In the meantime, I think I will end the story here for a while.  In the future I‘ll resume and probably speed-play through much of this waiting for those reinforcements of the Red Army to arrive.

[Obsolete]

10 A.M.  -- Sept 17.

Yup, fast-forward many hours and finally the Red army showed up at approximately 10 AM on Sept 17.  Despite they have initiative, it was still a disaster for them.  I have the whole are on this side of the Volga river under my control.  Due to all the problems with amphibious/paradrop landings like dispersal effects, and other such factors, they simply got raped before they could even attack me this turn.

I decided to take this screen-clip here during my movement phase, and I’ll be surprised if there will be anything left of this stack of JUNK a few hours away from now.

Assuming I don’t get disruptions myself during my planned assaults, I should be able to re-gain the initiative and hold onto that for the next few days (not that it’s needed!)

In the meantime, I hadn’t done anything the last 24 hours except for playing around by blowing up bridges, and re-assigning around units to different HQ’s and HQ’s to different Divisions.