Jan. 3
PM has held out for a couple of days, but will fall tomorrow. C'est la vie - I don't have the ability to put 450av anywhere right now, and won't for a while, so grimacing and bearing it is the order of the day. I'm good at that, at least.
All quiet in Malaya - there's been no movement into Johore so far. Wonder what the holdup is.
Irritatingly, some Betties show up over Rangoon the day after sailing orders are issued. They're just searching rather than sinking, but the transports will disgorge at Chittagong instead. Adds a couple of weeks that I'd have liked to have, but on the other hand I'd like to not not have a brigade or three.
Nanchang in southern China will hopefully - no promises, but hopefully - fall tomorrow too. This is the southeastern army - about 1500av of mixed stuff. Enough Japanese to stop the assault are one hex to the west, but they're going to get another 1500av - along with most of the Chinese independent artillery - dropped on top of them. This could be a major coup or a debacle depending on how the hexside control and movement shakes out.
Mass assaults at Clark inflict about equal casualties - not sustainable, since I have a force half the size. Today's included a parachute assault, or at least I think it did given the number of Japanese transport aircraft hit by AA fire - I understand incorporating the paras reduces the defending AV by some disproportionate number, so that won't have helped.
Japanese light carriers are moving back from Malaya to Manado, and cruisers are probing the Makassar strait - presume the next leap can't be more than a few days off. Unfortunately there are finally fighters at Manado, so further unescorted raids - the last one a couple of days ago almost certainly accounted for a destroyer tender and damaged a couple other auxiliaries - are not on the table.
Combined Chiefs of Staff's Supercomputer's Report [no Saros]
Moderators: wdolson, MOD_War-in-the-Pacific-Admirals-Edition
RE: January Looms
Jan. 5
Port Moresby falls. Life goes on; forces available in Australia are up to repelling any landings for the moment.
Numerous heavy radio transmission reports in, on and around Truk - something big enough to register as heavy is moving out into the blue southeast of the place, on a course such that next landfalls are about Nauru and Fiji. Even money says this is Nagumo's little shop of horrors out to cause some trouble; I think everything else is in the DEI. Paras did capture Tulagi yesterday; at this rate they'll be hitting Auckland within a month. Anyway, I should know for certain tomorrow; with the fall of PM I sent one of the Catalina squadrons out to Ocean Island, though I didn't think it'd be right on the spot this quick.
Rangoon raiders were Nells, it turns out - a dozen or so ignored several freighters unloading and instead attacked the river patrol motor launches, hitting one with a torpedo. Wouldn't have thought something that size would even trigger a torpedo, but definitely an accomplishment of a sort.
Nanchang turned into a debacle for the Japanese - the western force - turned out to be one IMB rather than two divisions, which shows you how good my sources are - crossed the river into the place as I was attacking; the resulting shock attack fell completely flat (0 adjusted AV) and the brigade was totally demolished. Chinese attacks took the forts from 4 to 0 yesterday and captured the place today, savaging another IMB and some Quislings in the process. Japanese land loss points about doubled overnight, so a good result.
Light carriers are off Ambon. Eastern Fleet is moving off Timor and may or may not try an intercept depending on where everyone ends up tomorrow; trouble is the Dutch really don't have the range for high-speed running, and their oilers are just in transit from Java with another fuel load. I expect some heavy escort - can't be sure what, exactly, as the Dutch search pilots are so bad they think there are nine escort carriers in the mix. I don't like it, but if it comes down to trading battleships for carriers...well, we know how history's going to judge us, right?
Port Moresby falls. Life goes on; forces available in Australia are up to repelling any landings for the moment.
Numerous heavy radio transmission reports in, on and around Truk - something big enough to register as heavy is moving out into the blue southeast of the place, on a course such that next landfalls are about Nauru and Fiji. Even money says this is Nagumo's little shop of horrors out to cause some trouble; I think everything else is in the DEI. Paras did capture Tulagi yesterday; at this rate they'll be hitting Auckland within a month. Anyway, I should know for certain tomorrow; with the fall of PM I sent one of the Catalina squadrons out to Ocean Island, though I didn't think it'd be right on the spot this quick.
Rangoon raiders were Nells, it turns out - a dozen or so ignored several freighters unloading and instead attacked the river patrol motor launches, hitting one with a torpedo. Wouldn't have thought something that size would even trigger a torpedo, but definitely an accomplishment of a sort.
Nanchang turned into a debacle for the Japanese - the western force - turned out to be one IMB rather than two divisions, which shows you how good my sources are - crossed the river into the place as I was attacking; the resulting shock attack fell completely flat (0 adjusted AV) and the brigade was totally demolished. Chinese attacks took the forts from 4 to 0 yesterday and captured the place today, savaging another IMB and some Quislings in the process. Japanese land loss points about doubled overnight, so a good result.
Light carriers are off Ambon. Eastern Fleet is moving off Timor and may or may not try an intercept depending on where everyone ends up tomorrow; trouble is the Dutch really don't have the range for high-speed running, and their oilers are just in transit from Java with another fuel load. I expect some heavy escort - can't be sure what, exactly, as the Dutch search pilots are so bad they think there are nine escort carriers in the mix. I don't like it, but if it comes down to trading battleships for carriers...well, we know how history's going to judge us, right?
RE: January Looms
Jan. 7
Well, Ocean Island flight spotted a three-ship convoy including what is allegedly a minelayer. Guess they're planning on hitting Nauru or something. Will keep looking just in case; Truk is still letting off enough radio transmissions to blow out the receivers at Pearl. Happily ten US subs just finished their transit to the area; six S-boats are headed to Fiji - there's just enough fuel there to get them all spun up - and four newer ones are playing tripwire east of the Solomons. 61st Naval Gd is reported heading for Rabaul; I don't think I've seen that one yet, which makes it somewhere around 500av in naval troops in the area.
Saratoga and the South Pacific engineers are approaching Tahiti; S will await Lex, YT and Enterprise plus cruisers which have detached from another troop convoy and are heading down as well; Canberra, Perth and Pensacola are also here and will join in the fun, as will the squadron currently covering unloading at Christmas Island. There's enough fuel on the way to Tahiti to keep everyone moving, so it'll be the operating base for a while. I am on the fence about early carrier battles; the head says no, but Saros has been pushing just a little beyond his ability to cover stuff safely and really only getting away with it because I'm cautious and tend to concentrate forces. We'll see how things shape up down here, anyway.
Japanese troops are starting to form up in northern Johor; once they get rid of the 8th Bde remnants (which are still sitting on the railway line from Kota to Malacca) there'll be nothing else for them to do in Malaya but take down Singapore.
Japanese light carriers put in an appearance off Darwin, sinking two small freighters and a Dutch gunboat. All the shipping moved out weeks ago; whether it holds or not I have no plans for Darwin as a fleet base any time soon, and I moved in enough supplies to meet the current garrison's needs for a while. I attempted to catch them with Eastern Fleet but ended up short - Wales and Repulse both caught a couple of 500lb bombs from Kates, 17 of which pushed past the Dutch fighters trying to play CAP. Total damage amounted to two torpedo tubes blown off Repulse and PoW's surface search radar; flak claims to have bagged six of them.
I imagine that in real life this, coupled with the relatively light damage inflicted at Pearl, would get some twit worked up on the survivability of battleships in front of carrier aircraft; in fairness I probably could catch them, but not without one more round of airstrikes. That'd be ok - I don't think there are more than a dozen or so Kates in that force after losses today and yesterday - but the Dutch are very low on fuel so the high-speed running is out of the question for them, and they're mounting a fairly significant proportion of the LAA in this little squadron.
Ambon was bombarded today; there's what looks like an invasion fleet sitting offshore, and disruption on the coast artillery is high enough that they won't have much issue getting ashore. One more domino...
Japanese shock attack again at Clark yesterday, along with another paradrop - guess we're going to be having them every attack. This one did less well - bombing has shifted from airfields to the troops themselves recently, meaning (rather paradoxically, I think) that fortification has resumed. We're back up to L. 2, and remain so after the attack, which cost the Japanese 130/210 combat/noncom destroyed and more disabled. The tank batallions were committed to this one after being held back so far - no doubt that helped.
Well, Ocean Island flight spotted a three-ship convoy including what is allegedly a minelayer. Guess they're planning on hitting Nauru or something. Will keep looking just in case; Truk is still letting off enough radio transmissions to blow out the receivers at Pearl. Happily ten US subs just finished their transit to the area; six S-boats are headed to Fiji - there's just enough fuel there to get them all spun up - and four newer ones are playing tripwire east of the Solomons. 61st Naval Gd is reported heading for Rabaul; I don't think I've seen that one yet, which makes it somewhere around 500av in naval troops in the area.
Saratoga and the South Pacific engineers are approaching Tahiti; S will await Lex, YT and Enterprise plus cruisers which have detached from another troop convoy and are heading down as well; Canberra, Perth and Pensacola are also here and will join in the fun, as will the squadron currently covering unloading at Christmas Island. There's enough fuel on the way to Tahiti to keep everyone moving, so it'll be the operating base for a while. I am on the fence about early carrier battles; the head says no, but Saros has been pushing just a little beyond his ability to cover stuff safely and really only getting away with it because I'm cautious and tend to concentrate forces. We'll see how things shape up down here, anyway.
Japanese troops are starting to form up in northern Johor; once they get rid of the 8th Bde remnants (which are still sitting on the railway line from Kota to Malacca) there'll be nothing else for them to do in Malaya but take down Singapore.
Japanese light carriers put in an appearance off Darwin, sinking two small freighters and a Dutch gunboat. All the shipping moved out weeks ago; whether it holds or not I have no plans for Darwin as a fleet base any time soon, and I moved in enough supplies to meet the current garrison's needs for a while. I attempted to catch them with Eastern Fleet but ended up short - Wales and Repulse both caught a couple of 500lb bombs from Kates, 17 of which pushed past the Dutch fighters trying to play CAP. Total damage amounted to two torpedo tubes blown off Repulse and PoW's surface search radar; flak claims to have bagged six of them.
I imagine that in real life this, coupled with the relatively light damage inflicted at Pearl, would get some twit worked up on the survivability of battleships in front of carrier aircraft; in fairness I probably could catch them, but not without one more round of airstrikes. That'd be ok - I don't think there are more than a dozen or so Kates in that force after losses today and yesterday - but the Dutch are very low on fuel so the high-speed running is out of the question for them, and they're mounting a fairly significant proportion of the LAA in this little squadron.
Ambon was bombarded today; there's what looks like an invasion fleet sitting offshore, and disruption on the coast artillery is high enough that they won't have much issue getting ashore. One more domino...
Japanese shock attack again at Clark yesterday, along with another paradrop - guess we're going to be having them every attack. This one did less well - bombing has shifted from airfields to the troops themselves recently, meaning (rather paradoxically, I think) that fortification has resumed. We're back up to L. 2, and remain so after the attack, which cost the Japanese 130/210 combat/noncom destroyed and more disabled. The tank batallions were committed to this one after being held back so far - no doubt that helped.
RE: January Looms
Jan. 9
Nauru was it - as was Ocean, actually; the same fragment of an SNLF took them both, Nauru yesterday and Ocean today. I actually didn't think the Japanese could move quite that fast on amph ops, so the Catalinas were still at Ocean and got blown up. Irritating, since they'd just have flown off - or rather not landed, being as they were all in the air - but that's life for you. What they did see in their brief time there was interesting - specifically, eight cruisers and what may or may not be a carrier east of Tulagi, heading southeast at high speed. Probably not a carrier, I guess - there'd have been CAP up, presumably - but a reported 'CS' makes me wonder.
Some small Japanese unit also landed at Luganville today; from here it'll be either Noumea or Fiji next...the only question is which happens first. I want to say Noumea, since it's trivial - just land up north and meander down the road - but there's been a Glen buzzing over Nadi taking photos every day for the last week. I thought that was kinda insignificant - can't stop the bloody things, after all - but it's more evidence than I've got for New Cal, and Nauru and Ocean going down as a matter of urgency but the Gilberts being ignored seems to fit.
So, that leaves me taking stock of major useful units in the South Pacific:
- 1st Aus Div at Sydney
- 2nd, 3rd, 4th Aus Divisions at Townsville
- 5th Aus Div at Brisbane
- 8th NZ Bde at Suva
- 40th Infantry Div part unloading at Auckland (off Queen Eliz.) and part mid-ocean en route Auckland
- 27th, 41st Infantry Divs mid-ocean en route Auckland then probably Melbourne
- 1st Marine Div minus one Rgt at Christmas Island, then Tahiti and points west t.b.d. once a more appropriate garrison can be found for the place.
- Combined Pacific Fleet forming up at Tahiti
pretend the 40th and 41st are the same thing I can't remember which is where
The Americal (daft bloody name) Div is (or will be - only one regiment's in so far) headed for Burma along with the 87th Mountain Rgt (poor buggers - they're in for a shock!), which force's artillery is a few weeks out of Cape Town. They may or may not be joined by another Div depending on how things shake out over the next few months, but probably they will.
The issue with moving unrestricted HQs around is a difficult one; the way I've decided to approach it is that I'll use them to move LCUs as far as staging areas - the three US Divs are I Amph Corps, for example - but any movement onwards from there will require a move to a 'proper' HQ. So, practically speaking, they can go to Hawaii, Tahiti, Australia or New Zealand, but nowhere else. I don't think that's unreasonable - particularly given the scale of Japanese moves in the South Pacific, which would have the Govts screaming bloody murder by now.
Anyway, New Cal or Fiji. Realistically one brigade can't hold Fiji; there's at least 400 'floating' AV in SNLF units in the South Pacific, maybe plus the 2nd Div which was forming up at Truk all those weeks ago and hasn't been seen since. Two might manage it against the SNLFs, but not anything heavier; they'd be stuck there at risk of having a ton of bricks dropped on them if I sent one, and in any case I don't have one to send. So, 8th NZ is heading home, mostly by air. Bad decision? Well, probably, but there ain't so many Kiwis that I can toss several thousand of them away. Shame I sent Lexington and Enterprise east instead of south back in December, I suppose...
Ambon will fall within the next couple of days; the Japanese land just enough force to take it, as per previous efforts.
A dozen Betties attack the HDML flotilla at Singapore, sinking three of four with torpedoes. For reference, this is an HDML:
Never mind how easy it'd be to dodge a torpedo in something that small - would the detonators even work on a tiny, shallow wooden launch? Another dozen attack a Dutch AMc off Java, but since they're using bombs nothing comes of it.
Rangoon bombed heavily, with significant airfield damage. Not going to shed too many tears; total occupants are one half-strength fighter squadron and half a dozen Lysanders, so if the Japanese want to have to fix the thing then so be it. Port damage by contrast would be devastating at this stage - a lot of supply has made it into Burma and a lot more is on the way, contingent on the air threat not getting obstructive, and that's supply that's going to be critical over the next couple of months as whatever I send into Upper Burma hangs on by the skin of its teeth. 18th Div and the composite Indian Div are just about ashore at Chittagong; they'll spend about a week getting some minor engineering work done on their supply line then head hillwards.
Nauru was it - as was Ocean, actually; the same fragment of an SNLF took them both, Nauru yesterday and Ocean today. I actually didn't think the Japanese could move quite that fast on amph ops, so the Catalinas were still at Ocean and got blown up. Irritating, since they'd just have flown off - or rather not landed, being as they were all in the air - but that's life for you. What they did see in their brief time there was interesting - specifically, eight cruisers and what may or may not be a carrier east of Tulagi, heading southeast at high speed. Probably not a carrier, I guess - there'd have been CAP up, presumably - but a reported 'CS' makes me wonder.
Some small Japanese unit also landed at Luganville today; from here it'll be either Noumea or Fiji next...the only question is which happens first. I want to say Noumea, since it's trivial - just land up north and meander down the road - but there's been a Glen buzzing over Nadi taking photos every day for the last week. I thought that was kinda insignificant - can't stop the bloody things, after all - but it's more evidence than I've got for New Cal, and Nauru and Ocean going down as a matter of urgency but the Gilberts being ignored seems to fit.
So, that leaves me taking stock of major useful units in the South Pacific:
- 1st Aus Div at Sydney
- 2nd, 3rd, 4th Aus Divisions at Townsville
- 5th Aus Div at Brisbane
- 8th NZ Bde at Suva
- 40th Infantry Div part unloading at Auckland (off Queen Eliz.) and part mid-ocean en route Auckland
- 27th, 41st Infantry Divs mid-ocean en route Auckland then probably Melbourne
- 1st Marine Div minus one Rgt at Christmas Island, then Tahiti and points west t.b.d. once a more appropriate garrison can be found for the place.
- Combined Pacific Fleet forming up at Tahiti
pretend the 40th and 41st are the same thing I can't remember which is where
The Americal (daft bloody name) Div is (or will be - only one regiment's in so far) headed for Burma along with the 87th Mountain Rgt (poor buggers - they're in for a shock!), which force's artillery is a few weeks out of Cape Town. They may or may not be joined by another Div depending on how things shake out over the next few months, but probably they will.
The issue with moving unrestricted HQs around is a difficult one; the way I've decided to approach it is that I'll use them to move LCUs as far as staging areas - the three US Divs are I Amph Corps, for example - but any movement onwards from there will require a move to a 'proper' HQ. So, practically speaking, they can go to Hawaii, Tahiti, Australia or New Zealand, but nowhere else. I don't think that's unreasonable - particularly given the scale of Japanese moves in the South Pacific, which would have the Govts screaming bloody murder by now.
Anyway, New Cal or Fiji. Realistically one brigade can't hold Fiji; there's at least 400 'floating' AV in SNLF units in the South Pacific, maybe plus the 2nd Div which was forming up at Truk all those weeks ago and hasn't been seen since. Two might manage it against the SNLFs, but not anything heavier; they'd be stuck there at risk of having a ton of bricks dropped on them if I sent one, and in any case I don't have one to send. So, 8th NZ is heading home, mostly by air. Bad decision? Well, probably, but there ain't so many Kiwis that I can toss several thousand of them away. Shame I sent Lexington and Enterprise east instead of south back in December, I suppose...
Ambon will fall within the next couple of days; the Japanese land just enough force to take it, as per previous efforts.
A dozen Betties attack the HDML flotilla at Singapore, sinking three of four with torpedoes. For reference, this is an HDML:
Never mind how easy it'd be to dodge a torpedo in something that small - would the detonators even work on a tiny, shallow wooden launch? Another dozen attack a Dutch AMc off Java, but since they're using bombs nothing comes of it.
Rangoon bombed heavily, with significant airfield damage. Not going to shed too many tears; total occupants are one half-strength fighter squadron and half a dozen Lysanders, so if the Japanese want to have to fix the thing then so be it. Port damage by contrast would be devastating at this stage - a lot of supply has made it into Burma and a lot more is on the way, contingent on the air threat not getting obstructive, and that's supply that's going to be critical over the next couple of months as whatever I send into Upper Burma hangs on by the skin of its teeth. 18th Div and the composite Indian Div are just about ashore at Chittagong; they'll spend about a week getting some minor engineering work done on their supply line then head hillwards.
RE: January Looms
Visual Guide to China, Jan. 9 (since there's no turn for me this morning):
Basically everything's 'ok'. The 1100av Japanese unit up north has been dumped in the middle of nowhere without support - after the mess at Nanchang all Japanese river crossings have been cancelled, apparently - so I'm going to try and hold it with a minimal force and then push enough past it to keep the encirclement up against anything trying to relieve it. Not going to attack, just starve'em out. The roads to Xi'an are I think sufficiently strongly held to keep the Japanese back a while...and if they're not, I have plenty of stuff in reserve.
Not shown are the 11th Army (blossoming in Burma; up to about 350av from an initial 100) and forces at Kukong (800av or so)
Basically everything's 'ok'. The 1100av Japanese unit up north has been dumped in the middle of nowhere without support - after the mess at Nanchang all Japanese river crossings have been cancelled, apparently - so I'm going to try and hold it with a minimal force and then push enough past it to keep the encirclement up against anything trying to relieve it. Not going to attack, just starve'em out. The roads to Xi'an are I think sufficiently strongly held to keep the Japanese back a while...and if they're not, I have plenty of stuff in reserve.
Not shown are the 11th Army (blossoming in Burma; up to about 350av from an initial 100) and forces at Kukong (800av or so)
RE: January Looms
Saros lives in - you guessed it - Christchurch! So a couple of busy days for him.
Jan. 10
Today was a very good day. Tomorrow may not be so good, but I'm enjoying the warm glow while it lasts.
- 50 Betties bombed Batavia from I think Singkawang. They would theoretically have been escorted by whatever fighters are there - I know there are a few, though I've never actually seen any in the air - but their pilots apparently had a night on the town and couldn't be bothered. End result is 29 Betties shot down in exchange for a minelayer and one of those rinkydink 6kt AGs. I decided a few days ago to give the RAAF/RNZAF most of the Buffalo pool as replacements on Java as trade for withdrawing the Dutch land forces from northern Sumatra - I think it worked out ok! It'd have gone even better, but a couple of the squadrons (28F) were training and one (12F) was just activated today - I like to think as a response - so didn't participate.
- Another parachute assault on Clark, meaning another shock attack; this one was really ugly as forts had made it all the way up to 3, result being that the Japanese took about 3.5:1 in disablements while not touching the forts. Every day is precious here given the large commitment, so I complain not one jot.
- Nagumo showed up! A small convoy unloading an independent company at Norfolk Island was buzzed by several seaplanes and then reported a bunch of large Jap carriers with several hundred aircraft among them 45mi to the NW. Very fortunate - Norfolk isn't an active search base yet, and the carriers are out in the middle of nowhere miles away from the nearest search zone. Three cruisers and a couple dozen merchants would at the least have been at risk this time tomorrow, being as they are at sea between Australia and NZ; as is damage from what I assume is going to be a raid on Sydney might not be too horrific. Most of the merchants at Sydney are scattering; a few will stay to keep up appearances.
This does raise the question of how they got here; presumably their aircraft have been stood down for a few days while they raced down the Solomons. Forunately or otherwise the Pacific Fleet is still forming up at Tahiti, so I have no real means of interfering with whatever they're about to do. Mein opponente don't know that, however, so I'm guessing their being down here means incoming bad news for somewhere local, ie either New Cal or Fiji. One of the subs between Tulagi and New Cal was buzzed by aircraft yesterday; might be meaningful, might just be noise.
- Eastern Fleet is "withdrawing" from the Java area because - you'll laugh - there isn't enough fuel to keep them moving. Well - there is, sort of, but not enough to keep them moving and allow exports to Perth to continue, for which purpose about a dozen tankers arrived in Java yesterday. The approaches to Batavia and Surabaya are also crawling with submarines, and I'm less than happy about running that gauntlet at this point. So, they'll wait offshore a little while tankers shuttle in and out of Tjilatjap. The Japanese battlefleet is loitering off Kendari, the virtual equivalent of a guy outside a bar yelling "COME ON THEN" to noone in particular.
- Moulmein is occupied by a Thai division. Burcorps is dug in across the river, so the Japanese will have to bring up something a little more substantial to get any further. Four more HDMLs were torpedoed by Nells today; I have no idea if any were ever actually torpedoed in real life, but on the face of it it seems unlikely.
Jan. 10
Today was a very good day. Tomorrow may not be so good, but I'm enjoying the warm glow while it lasts.
- 50 Betties bombed Batavia from I think Singkawang. They would theoretically have been escorted by whatever fighters are there - I know there are a few, though I've never actually seen any in the air - but their pilots apparently had a night on the town and couldn't be bothered. End result is 29 Betties shot down in exchange for a minelayer and one of those rinkydink 6kt AGs. I decided a few days ago to give the RAAF/RNZAF most of the Buffalo pool as replacements on Java as trade for withdrawing the Dutch land forces from northern Sumatra - I think it worked out ok! It'd have gone even better, but a couple of the squadrons (28F) were training and one (12F) was just activated today - I like to think as a response - so didn't participate.
- Another parachute assault on Clark, meaning another shock attack; this one was really ugly as forts had made it all the way up to 3, result being that the Japanese took about 3.5:1 in disablements while not touching the forts. Every day is precious here given the large commitment, so I complain not one jot.
- Nagumo showed up! A small convoy unloading an independent company at Norfolk Island was buzzed by several seaplanes and then reported a bunch of large Jap carriers with several hundred aircraft among them 45mi to the NW. Very fortunate - Norfolk isn't an active search base yet, and the carriers are out in the middle of nowhere miles away from the nearest search zone. Three cruisers and a couple dozen merchants would at the least have been at risk this time tomorrow, being as they are at sea between Australia and NZ; as is damage from what I assume is going to be a raid on Sydney might not be too horrific. Most of the merchants at Sydney are scattering; a few will stay to keep up appearances.
This does raise the question of how they got here; presumably their aircraft have been stood down for a few days while they raced down the Solomons. Forunately or otherwise the Pacific Fleet is still forming up at Tahiti, so I have no real means of interfering with whatever they're about to do. Mein opponente don't know that, however, so I'm guessing their being down here means incoming bad news for somewhere local, ie either New Cal or Fiji. One of the subs between Tulagi and New Cal was buzzed by aircraft yesterday; might be meaningful, might just be noise.
- Eastern Fleet is "withdrawing" from the Java area because - you'll laugh - there isn't enough fuel to keep them moving. Well - there is, sort of, but not enough to keep them moving and allow exports to Perth to continue, for which purpose about a dozen tankers arrived in Java yesterday. The approaches to Batavia and Surabaya are also crawling with submarines, and I'm less than happy about running that gauntlet at this point. So, they'll wait offshore a little while tankers shuttle in and out of Tjilatjap. The Japanese battlefleet is loitering off Kendari, the virtual equivalent of a guy outside a bar yelling "COME ON THEN" to noone in particular.
- Moulmein is occupied by a Thai division. Burcorps is dug in across the river, so the Japanese will have to bring up something a little more substantial to get any further. Four more HDMLs were torpedoed by Nells today; I have no idea if any were ever actually torpedoed in real life, but on the face of it it seems unlikely.
RE: January Looms
Jan. 11
- Most shipping in Sydney is halfway to Tasmania by now. The attackers apparently paused off Norfolk Island to redistribute fuel, so apart from the inevitable couple of losses from submarines damage might not be too heavy. Expect the airstrikes will take place tomorrow if they take place at all. Amusingly the Norfolk Island convoy itself, despite being under KB's guns for two days, hasn't been attacked; they're headed for Suva to pick up the NZ Bde's artillery. However:
- Ten ships have been detected a couple of hundred miles northwest of New Caledonia, in the middle of the Coral Sea, heading southeast - in other words, directly for Koumac. What by I don't know - they're again out of anyone's search radius - but there they are. Speed is reported at 10kts, composition sketchy but minelayers, cruisers, battleships all make the report. If it's not an invasion convoy heading for NC I'll eat my hat.
- Simultaneously, 13 ships have been detected off Pentecost Island - that's between Luganville and Efate, which was captured today - heading southeast at 13kts. I'd offer to eat my hat if this were not a Fiji invasion, but I only have the one. It's bright pink with little plastic rhinestones, by the way.
So, apparently deciding among the two would have been a bit of a waste of time. C'est la vie. A first supply ship is approaching Pago Pago with 5000t of 'stuff', which should be put to good use there; at this point the question becomes how far the Japs want to push their amphibious bonus, because heaven knows I can't stop them taking anywhere they want badly enough. Most of the engineering and base force goons are off ship at Tahiti at this point - there's enough naval support there that the tiny port doesn't matter too much - with enough combat units to make it a reasonably solid position about a week away. I got my Marine subcomponents mixed up in the move to Christmas Island, so some Marines will probably wander down to join them soonish.
Anyway, although this is a major commitment to the area by the Japanese Australia and New Zee are basically safe - if he gets it into his head to invade NZ at this point I will pretty much jump for joy, heh - and while it's a fairly significant disruption to shipping across the Pacific most of the stuff destined for the area is headed for Cape Town anyway. Several dozen large freighters and tankers are headed for the Eastern US and UK to pick up supplies for CT above and beyond what comes in on the convoys, which should about double the daily inflow off stuff at CT.
Not much happening elsewhere today; the one almost totally disabled Aus Bde has been flown out from Malaya to Sumatra and will board ships for Perth in a couple of days; I don't rate their chances of being combat-ready in time for action too highly.
- Most shipping in Sydney is halfway to Tasmania by now. The attackers apparently paused off Norfolk Island to redistribute fuel, so apart from the inevitable couple of losses from submarines damage might not be too heavy. Expect the airstrikes will take place tomorrow if they take place at all. Amusingly the Norfolk Island convoy itself, despite being under KB's guns for two days, hasn't been attacked; they're headed for Suva to pick up the NZ Bde's artillery. However:
- Ten ships have been detected a couple of hundred miles northwest of New Caledonia, in the middle of the Coral Sea, heading southeast - in other words, directly for Koumac. What by I don't know - they're again out of anyone's search radius - but there they are. Speed is reported at 10kts, composition sketchy but minelayers, cruisers, battleships all make the report. If it's not an invasion convoy heading for NC I'll eat my hat.
- Simultaneously, 13 ships have been detected off Pentecost Island - that's between Luganville and Efate, which was captured today - heading southeast at 13kts. I'd offer to eat my hat if this were not a Fiji invasion, but I only have the one. It's bright pink with little plastic rhinestones, by the way.
So, apparently deciding among the two would have been a bit of a waste of time. C'est la vie. A first supply ship is approaching Pago Pago with 5000t of 'stuff', which should be put to good use there; at this point the question becomes how far the Japs want to push their amphibious bonus, because heaven knows I can't stop them taking anywhere they want badly enough. Most of the engineering and base force goons are off ship at Tahiti at this point - there's enough naval support there that the tiny port doesn't matter too much - with enough combat units to make it a reasonably solid position about a week away. I got my Marine subcomponents mixed up in the move to Christmas Island, so some Marines will probably wander down to join them soonish.
Anyway, although this is a major commitment to the area by the Japanese Australia and New Zee are basically safe - if he gets it into his head to invade NZ at this point I will pretty much jump for joy, heh - and while it's a fairly significant disruption to shipping across the Pacific most of the stuff destined for the area is headed for Cape Town anyway. Several dozen large freighters and tankers are headed for the Eastern US and UK to pick up supplies for CT above and beyond what comes in on the convoys, which should about double the daily inflow off stuff at CT.
Not much happening elsewhere today; the one almost totally disabled Aus Bde has been flown out from Malaya to Sumatra and will board ships for Perth in a couple of days; I don't rate their chances of being combat-ready in time for action too highly.
RE: January Looms
Jan. 12
Sydney is raided on schedule - losses aren't heavy, most of the shipping having departed. The only real irritant is more risible torpedo hits, today's targets being half a dozen minesweeping trawlers on harbor patrols at Sydney and Melbourne. I moved a dozen Dutch AMcs to Australia from Java, so the minesweeping capacity can be brought back up quick, but they're not armed with anything heavier than machine guns which makes them less than ideal as a submarine deterrent.
Koumac convoy should hit tomorrow or the day after; Fiji-1 convoy wasn't detected today but another, separate formation - ID unknown, but it's big enough to be leaving a mark over the radio - has been picked up a few hundred miles northwest of Fiji, so landings here will probably take place in 3-4 days. Do wish I'd set the carriers off a little earlier - they're a day out from Tahiti and will probably miss the window for risk-free intervention by a couple of days. Tahiti does at least now have its own cover, one P-40 squadron and 11 PT boats having landed today.
Elsewhere, calm prevails.
Sydney is raided on schedule - losses aren't heavy, most of the shipping having departed. The only real irritant is more risible torpedo hits, today's targets being half a dozen minesweeping trawlers on harbor patrols at Sydney and Melbourne. I moved a dozen Dutch AMcs to Australia from Java, so the minesweeping capacity can be brought back up quick, but they're not armed with anything heavier than machine guns which makes them less than ideal as a submarine deterrent.
Koumac convoy should hit tomorrow or the day after; Fiji-1 convoy wasn't detected today but another, separate formation - ID unknown, but it's big enough to be leaving a mark over the radio - has been picked up a few hundred miles northwest of Fiji, so landings here will probably take place in 3-4 days. Do wish I'd set the carriers off a little earlier - they're a day out from Tahiti and will probably miss the window for risk-free intervention by a couple of days. Tahiti does at least now have its own cover, one P-40 squadron and 11 PT boats having landed today.
Elsewhere, calm prevails.
RE: January Looms
Jan. 13/14
The carriers hung around Sydney - no strikes yesterday, but some more today finished off a couple of small freighters (whatever), blew up a couple of Wirraways (whatever) and burnt 10% of the city to the ground (uh...). 320 strategic loss points in one day strikes me as a pretty game-ending rate if it reoccurs; we'll have to see. They appear to be moving off now, however, probably to cover the Fiji op based on their course. The advantage of knowing what you can get away with, I guess. Oddly, still no landings at Koumac; not sure what the holdup is, and the place was zoomed by 13 fighters (from Hosho, I think) yesterday.
Unusual amount of submarine attacks today; 10 or so by Allied subs hit nothing, while I-23 sinks a large Navy freighter with one torpedo off San Diego. I must have used up all my sub karma on Ryujo, because US submarines have sunk I think two ships over the last five weeks; one unescorted AKL off Sakhalin, and...something else that I can't remember offhand. Dutch subs have done slightly better, with about half a dozen merchant sinkings, but still nothing to write home about. S-boats will attempt to interfere with the Fiji landings and KB, but I'm not holding my breath.
Makassar invaded today; 180av of attackers should clear up in a day or two.
9th Ind Div hung around on the wrong side of the Johore Strait, being forced across the causeway with 1500 casualties. I'm pretty pissed off about this insofar as I have no idea why it only managed to make 15 miles in the time it took the rest of III Corps to do 46 - all units involved were in combat mode throughout, and everyone else crossed over yesterday. They did at least manage to inflict twice that amount in return, though mostly in non-combat disablements. Singapore holds about 900av in L3 forts to 1300 Japanese, and they're apparently making the crossing immediately; I give'em two weeks, at best.
Burma...5000 men, Japanese or Thai, are attempting to make a cross-country dash from Chiang Mai to Pegu; I hope they succeed, maybe, in that Chiang Mai now seems to be deserted and a Burmese Bn is a few days' march away. 5000, if they make it that far, can be contained with the couple of Chinese Bdes available, I think.
The carriers hung around Sydney - no strikes yesterday, but some more today finished off a couple of small freighters (whatever), blew up a couple of Wirraways (whatever) and burnt 10% of the city to the ground (uh...). 320 strategic loss points in one day strikes me as a pretty game-ending rate if it reoccurs; we'll have to see. They appear to be moving off now, however, probably to cover the Fiji op based on their course. The advantage of knowing what you can get away with, I guess. Oddly, still no landings at Koumac; not sure what the holdup is, and the place was zoomed by 13 fighters (from Hosho, I think) yesterday.
Unusual amount of submarine attacks today; 10 or so by Allied subs hit nothing, while I-23 sinks a large Navy freighter with one torpedo off San Diego. I must have used up all my sub karma on Ryujo, because US submarines have sunk I think two ships over the last five weeks; one unescorted AKL off Sakhalin, and...something else that I can't remember offhand. Dutch subs have done slightly better, with about half a dozen merchant sinkings, but still nothing to write home about. S-boats will attempt to interfere with the Fiji landings and KB, but I'm not holding my breath.
Makassar invaded today; 180av of attackers should clear up in a day or two.
9th Ind Div hung around on the wrong side of the Johore Strait, being forced across the causeway with 1500 casualties. I'm pretty pissed off about this insofar as I have no idea why it only managed to make 15 miles in the time it took the rest of III Corps to do 46 - all units involved were in combat mode throughout, and everyone else crossed over yesterday. They did at least manage to inflict twice that amount in return, though mostly in non-combat disablements. Singapore holds about 900av in L3 forts to 1300 Japanese, and they're apparently making the crossing immediately; I give'em two weeks, at best.
Burma...5000 men, Japanese or Thai, are attempting to make a cross-country dash from Chiang Mai to Pegu; I hope they succeed, maybe, in that Chiang Mai now seems to be deserted and a Burmese Bn is a few days' march away. 5000, if they make it that far, can be contained with the couple of Chinese Bdes available, I think.
RE: January Looms
Jan. 15-20
We had a busy day yesterday - five turns in one day! Never let it be said that there can't be a silver lining to an earthquake, huh?
- To noone's particular surprise, IJA 2nd Div got ashore at Nadi with minimal fuss on the 17th:
About 800av in total. I think I made the right decision in pulling out - 8th Bde alone wouldn't have held that swarm back for long, and the fraction of US 40th Div that might have made it ashore would have been pretty much isolated, supply-wise. Suva fell today, the 20th; I guess somehow I didn't notice (?!?) the Japanese units there so they took a few aircraft with them. Irritating again. Anyway, 8th Bde has reformed as a single unit back in New Zealand; they're missing 1Bn of infantry squads and their artillery complement, so nothing too serious from that point of view.
New Caledonia was also invaded - not at Koumac as expected but actually directly at Noumea, without any bombardment etc support. This did at least allow the coast artillery to whack a few Japanese transports, though the base still fell on D-day+1 due to the weight of numbers involved.
There are currently about 50-60 Japanese ships at or within a few miles of Fiji; the carriers have dropped off the map except for what I assume is Hosho, whose Kates missed a sub yesterday.
So, Japanese objectives in the South Pacific have I think been met - the question now is whether the next step is to backfill, the vast majority of undeveloped bases between Fiji and New Guinea having been completely ignored; or to keep going and hope for the best. Or, I suppose, do both; I keep wondering why one small unit hasn't been going from base to base with one ship and just tidying up. Signals put an SNLF en route to Vaitupu in the Ellices, no doubt for use as a seaplane base.
Anyway, that more or less concludes a brutally hindsight-fuelled campaign; to illustrate how much actual territory the Japanese have skipped entirely, here's the strat map from today:
Other news:
- A Marine Defense Bn has used all the fuss over Fiji to get ashore at Canton Island, along with supplies for several months. Another, along with construction units, is headed for Penrhyn Atoll (or maybe Starbuck Island, now that I think about it); anyway, having one of the two is fairly critical from Tahiti's perspective as it's close enough to Bora Bora and Christmas Island that fighters can just zip themselves in and out.
- Two infantry Rgts, and a complete coast defense force will make Tahiti tomorrow or perhaps the day after. We're already up to a Lv. 3 airfield here, and work has now switched to the port facilities. Once they're done, engineers will hop over to the next island and repeat the process.
- US 41st ID and an awful lot of supporting units are loading up at San Francisco for points unknown; Australia, eventually, I think, perhaps with a brief holiday in the South Pacific first.
- US 27th ID and 40th ID's heavy equipment will reach Wellington in about 10 days, where they'll remain until I put together enough PPs to move them out of NZ, unless something Serious happens in Australia.
- Japanese forces crossed into Singapore today; lots of casualties and they didn't touch L.3 forts, but with the 9th Div bug total force is 1664 to 954; can't see the place holding much past the end of the month. Notably Imperial Guards Div isn't involved, which effectively confirms them as the Japanese unit en-route to Burma - or at least it would, if the radio hadn't done that already.
- The Thai force moving west into Burma from Chiang Mai was revealed to be two divisions' worth; air recon underestimated their numbers fairly brutally and there's actually 16,000 of the buggers. At least four of the seven? Thai Divs are in Burma, which is a little confusing to me as we're supposedly buying out any land units to cross borders, and the Thais are perma-[R]. Hopefully some clarification will be forthcoming before they cut off Burma Corps rather than after.
- The Japanese drive on Xi'an has restarted, the northern force having extricated itself and escaped across country southwards. I'm wary of trusting air recon after the mess in Burma, so solid force estimates will have to wait until contact.
We had a busy day yesterday - five turns in one day! Never let it be said that there can't be a silver lining to an earthquake, huh?
- To noone's particular surprise, IJA 2nd Div got ashore at Nadi with minimal fuss on the 17th:
1st Sasebo SNLF Coy
81st Naval Guard Unit
Maizuru 1st SNLF
Sasebo 2nd SNLF
2nd Division
Maizuru 2nd SNLF
Maizuru 2nd SNLF /1
2nd JNAF AF Unit /1
5th Naval Const Bn /1
36th JNAF AF Unit /2
About 800av in total. I think I made the right decision in pulling out - 8th Bde alone wouldn't have held that swarm back for long, and the fraction of US 40th Div that might have made it ashore would have been pretty much isolated, supply-wise. Suva fell today, the 20th; I guess somehow I didn't notice (?!?) the Japanese units there so they took a few aircraft with them. Irritating again. Anyway, 8th Bde has reformed as a single unit back in New Zealand; they're missing 1Bn of infantry squads and their artillery complement, so nothing too serious from that point of view.
New Caledonia was also invaded - not at Koumac as expected but actually directly at Noumea, without any bombardment etc support. This did at least allow the coast artillery to whack a few Japanese transports, though the base still fell on D-day+1 due to the weight of numbers involved.
There are currently about 50-60 Japanese ships at or within a few miles of Fiji; the carriers have dropped off the map except for what I assume is Hosho, whose Kates missed a sub yesterday.
So, Japanese objectives in the South Pacific have I think been met - the question now is whether the next step is to backfill, the vast majority of undeveloped bases between Fiji and New Guinea having been completely ignored; or to keep going and hope for the best. Or, I suppose, do both; I keep wondering why one small unit hasn't been going from base to base with one ship and just tidying up. Signals put an SNLF en route to Vaitupu in the Ellices, no doubt for use as a seaplane base.
Anyway, that more or less concludes a brutally hindsight-fuelled campaign; to illustrate how much actual territory the Japanese have skipped entirely, here's the strat map from today:
Other news:
- A Marine Defense Bn has used all the fuss over Fiji to get ashore at Canton Island, along with supplies for several months. Another, along with construction units, is headed for Penrhyn Atoll (or maybe Starbuck Island, now that I think about it); anyway, having one of the two is fairly critical from Tahiti's perspective as it's close enough to Bora Bora and Christmas Island that fighters can just zip themselves in and out.
- Two infantry Rgts, and a complete coast defense force will make Tahiti tomorrow or perhaps the day after. We're already up to a Lv. 3 airfield here, and work has now switched to the port facilities. Once they're done, engineers will hop over to the next island and repeat the process.
- US 41st ID and an awful lot of supporting units are loading up at San Francisco for points unknown; Australia, eventually, I think, perhaps with a brief holiday in the South Pacific first.
- US 27th ID and 40th ID's heavy equipment will reach Wellington in about 10 days, where they'll remain until I put together enough PPs to move them out of NZ, unless something Serious happens in Australia.
- Japanese forces crossed into Singapore today; lots of casualties and they didn't touch L.3 forts, but with the 9th Div bug total force is 1664 to 954; can't see the place holding much past the end of the month. Notably Imperial Guards Div isn't involved, which effectively confirms them as the Japanese unit en-route to Burma - or at least it would, if the radio hadn't done that already.
- The Thai force moving west into Burma from Chiang Mai was revealed to be two divisions' worth; air recon underestimated their numbers fairly brutally and there's actually 16,000 of the buggers. At least four of the seven? Thai Divs are in Burma, which is a little confusing to me as we're supposedly buying out any land units to cross borders, and the Thais are perma-[R]. Hopefully some clarification will be forthcoming before they cut off Burma Corps rather than after.
- The Japanese drive on Xi'an has restarted, the northern force having extricated itself and escaped across country southwards. I'm wary of trusting air recon after the mess in Burma, so solid force estimates will have to wait until contact.
RE: January Looms
Jan. 21-22
Frantic diplomatic exchanges with the Thai government indicate that country's army will primarily operate east of the Salween, and a batallion of Burma Rifles are consequently halted just a day's march from Chiang Mai. Both sides seem to think they've got the better deal here; in any case, the Chinese contingent will return to Rangoon from the front, where they'll resume introducing themselves to lend-lease supplies. Everything now depends on what the Imperial Guards do; if they go down the frontal assault route alone things may get very ugly for them, and if they attempt to go around the Salween block I should be able to get 17th Indian Div into position to stop them. Should. Might. Anyway, the panic in Rangoon has subsided a little. Rangoon has also seen the first Tojos of the war, though they're scarcely an improvement over other Japanese types considering the opposition.
Japanese occupation of New Caledonia has been completed with the capture of La Foa and Koumac; the three USN Catalina squadrons which were evacuating Fiji have shifted up to Townsville and are collecting the surprisingly numerous survivors of the Port Moresby 'campaign', who've finally reached the coast. Once that's done they'll spread some base forces around the Solomon Islands - since most of them have been ignored keeping tabs on the Japanese from them seems the least I can do. Horn Island bombed with heavy casualties; possibly it's next on the list. Not preventable if it is - it's not like shipping was using the Torres Strait, anyway.
US and Phillipine forces continue effective resistance at Clark Field despite six infantry divisions and all the tanks and artillery the Japanese can spare being thrown at them. Supply stocks are down to 20,000t; although their days are obviously numbered they've actually gained strength compared to a few weeks ago (when I thought resistance past mid-January was unlikely) and if nothing else they've taken a bandsaw to the Japanese parachute force, most of which has been dropped into the area over the last month with, apparently, very few survivors. Japanese forces have not landed anywhere else in the Phillipines except Luzon, bar the one trainwreck of an attempt to seize Iloilo, and III Phillipine Corps is holed up in the mountains of central Mindanao with supplies for several weeks' combat. My kingdom for a squadron of DC-4s...
Japanese forces have advanced from Nanyang up into the hills; this particular force (1000av) is up against about twice its number in Chinese, who've been digging in for a while now, so they're not going to get anywhere. Size of the main force advancing from Loyang is yet to be determined but may eventually include the diverted northern force, so it'll at least be bigger.
Balikpapan falls, the landing force having outnumbered the defenders by about 5-1.
Frantic diplomatic exchanges with the Thai government indicate that country's army will primarily operate east of the Salween, and a batallion of Burma Rifles are consequently halted just a day's march from Chiang Mai. Both sides seem to think they've got the better deal here; in any case, the Chinese contingent will return to Rangoon from the front, where they'll resume introducing themselves to lend-lease supplies. Everything now depends on what the Imperial Guards do; if they go down the frontal assault route alone things may get very ugly for them, and if they attempt to go around the Salween block I should be able to get 17th Indian Div into position to stop them. Should. Might. Anyway, the panic in Rangoon has subsided a little. Rangoon has also seen the first Tojos of the war, though they're scarcely an improvement over other Japanese types considering the opposition.
Japanese occupation of New Caledonia has been completed with the capture of La Foa and Koumac; the three USN Catalina squadrons which were evacuating Fiji have shifted up to Townsville and are collecting the surprisingly numerous survivors of the Port Moresby 'campaign', who've finally reached the coast. Once that's done they'll spread some base forces around the Solomon Islands - since most of them have been ignored keeping tabs on the Japanese from them seems the least I can do. Horn Island bombed with heavy casualties; possibly it's next on the list. Not preventable if it is - it's not like shipping was using the Torres Strait, anyway.
US and Phillipine forces continue effective resistance at Clark Field despite six infantry divisions and all the tanks and artillery the Japanese can spare being thrown at them. Supply stocks are down to 20,000t; although their days are obviously numbered they've actually gained strength compared to a few weeks ago (when I thought resistance past mid-January was unlikely) and if nothing else they've taken a bandsaw to the Japanese parachute force, most of which has been dropped into the area over the last month with, apparently, very few survivors. Japanese forces have not landed anywhere else in the Phillipines except Luzon, bar the one trainwreck of an attempt to seize Iloilo, and III Phillipine Corps is holed up in the mountains of central Mindanao with supplies for several weeks' combat. My kingdom for a squadron of DC-4s...
Japanese forces have advanced from Nanyang up into the hills; this particular force (1000av) is up against about twice its number in Chinese, who've been digging in for a while now, so they're not going to get anywhere. Size of the main force advancing from Loyang is yet to be determined but may eventually include the diverted northern force, so it'll at least be bigger.
Balikpapan falls, the landing force having outnumbered the defenders by about 5-1.
RE: January Looms
Jan. 23
Thinking too hard about stuff is dangerous if you're me. Nothing much happened anywhere on the map today - the most exciting revelation is that a Japanese parachute regiment is on its way to Bangkok, presumably to be dropped either into Burma or the Andamans - and I ended up parked over Truk, wishing that I could at least take a crack at the 80 or so Japanese ships reported there. This was meant to have happened weeks ago, when I still held Rabaul, but the B-17s intended for the mission ended up having to bug out for a while courtesy of some battleships. So, I got to thinking:
- There are, give or take, 150 Catalinas of varying models scattered around the map. I haven't been flying them particularly hard, so although their pilots have nevertheless managed to crash about as many as have been produced since the game began they're in fairly good shape, numbers-wise.
- There are, at last report, six Japanese fighters and about 36 heavy AA guns at Truk. That's quite a lot if you're a Catalina pilot, but it's not so many that they'd doom any offensive mission.
- The Japanese have been in such a hurry to get to Fiji that the only places they've taken between Truk and the New Hebrides are Port Moresby, Rabaul, Tulagi and Kavieng. That leaves a pretty encouraging number of scrubby little islands within 500 miles or so of Truk untouched and (so far) unobserved.
- There are just over 30 B-17s in Australia; their range is just a hair too short to hit anything worth hitting from the continent itself, so they're not doing much right now, but they could fly enough supplies into said scrubby little islands for a one-shot raid.
- There are also a couple of base forces, lately of Port Moresby, that are light on heavy equipment and relatively heavy on aviation support.
I'm pretty sure you can guess where this is headed. The aircraft are moving - they're being replaced by B-17s locally, most of which have been training for naval searches since day 1; whether this will end badly or catastrophically depends on whether anything new turns up at Truk or Scrubby Island A in the next week or so, I suppose.
Thinking too hard about stuff is dangerous if you're me. Nothing much happened anywhere on the map today - the most exciting revelation is that a Japanese parachute regiment is on its way to Bangkok, presumably to be dropped either into Burma or the Andamans - and I ended up parked over Truk, wishing that I could at least take a crack at the 80 or so Japanese ships reported there. This was meant to have happened weeks ago, when I still held Rabaul, but the B-17s intended for the mission ended up having to bug out for a while courtesy of some battleships. So, I got to thinking:
- There are, give or take, 150 Catalinas of varying models scattered around the map. I haven't been flying them particularly hard, so although their pilots have nevertheless managed to crash about as many as have been produced since the game began they're in fairly good shape, numbers-wise.
- There are, at last report, six Japanese fighters and about 36 heavy AA guns at Truk. That's quite a lot if you're a Catalina pilot, but it's not so many that they'd doom any offensive mission.
- The Japanese have been in such a hurry to get to Fiji that the only places they've taken between Truk and the New Hebrides are Port Moresby, Rabaul, Tulagi and Kavieng. That leaves a pretty encouraging number of scrubby little islands within 500 miles or so of Truk untouched and (so far) unobserved.
- There are just over 30 B-17s in Australia; their range is just a hair too short to hit anything worth hitting from the continent itself, so they're not doing much right now, but they could fly enough supplies into said scrubby little islands for a one-shot raid.
- There are also a couple of base forces, lately of Port Moresby, that are light on heavy equipment and relatively heavy on aviation support.
I'm pretty sure you can guess where this is headed. The aircraft are moving - they're being replaced by B-17s locally, most of which have been training for naval searches since day 1; whether this will end badly or catastrophically depends on whether anything new turns up at Truk or Scrubby Island A in the next week or so, I suppose.
RE: January Looms
Jan. 24-27
Japanese carriers detected off the coast of Antarctica - they materialized a few hundred miles away from and detected Convoy CX.1, headed to Christchurch along the southern map edge with one and a half US Divs plus extras on board. The resolution of this is still up in the air - the convoy was as heavily escorted as was practical for such an early departure (CA, 3 CL, 3DD), and air attacks yesterday torpedoed CLs Trenton and Leander but didn't hit (or detect) the merchants. Australia, Achilles and the destroyers (all of which are undamaged) will attempt a night intercept as they're not far away; merchants have "scattered" as best they can - not well, since they have fuel to reach Christchurch and not a drop more - and are making for various New Zealand ports. Everything now depends on tonight; if the carriers can be forced to retire or at least hang back things will proceed as previously, and if they can't Plan B will go into effect. Unfortunately the Pacific Fleet is two days north of Tahiti - I'd detected what I thought was KB heading northwest from Fiji a couple of days ago, so they were headed up to meet CX.2 and take it in, the assumption being that CX.1 would be ok. Assumptions, eh? At least they took half a dozen Kates with them...
Eastern Fleet accidentally went into action - four destroyers got the wrong orders and headed up to Ketapang in Borneo. (the entire force was going to go, but I changed my mind midway through the turn - someone didn't get the memo) Anyway, since they met 18 Jap ships, including four heavy cruisers, in daylight, you can imagine how that went. Naval forces in this area are, at this point, too heavy for any battle to have a positive outcome - in addition to the four cruisers at Ketapang there are at least four more off Celebes, plus six battleships moving south from Sarawak, so the fleet is heading back out into the Indian Ocean. If it comes down to it I'm prepared to leave the area entirely - will depend on how the events off New Zealand turn out. Ultimately the forces to invade Java - or even Palembang, I think - just aren't there right now, so a big standup fight does nothing useful.
Elsewhere, "quiet". Major Japanese land forces now up to eight (seriously) divisions assaulting Clark Field, four (though split into their sep. regiments) at Singapore, about 2.5 equivalents in SNLFs in the South Pacific, about 1.5 equivalents in SNLFs in Indonesia, and Imperial Guards at Moulmein, staring across the Salween. 7th Armoured Bde and an Indian Cav Rgt have set off from Imphal, direction Burma. 17th Indian Div should be forming up in a few days, and 18th Div will begin its crossing tomorrow. Two large Chinese corps are also headed for the Burmese border, since the Japanese are actively pulling troops out of China; their place in the line will be taken by a reconstructed corps moving down from Chungking. The AVG will be fully equipped with US-standard aircraft tomorrow, and will be in action as soon as they're flyable; the Chinese AF is putting together a couple of squadrons with competent pilots, which will make use of the released H-81s. Why bother? Well, P-39s and P-40s carry droptanks, and H-81s don't; means they can get in and out of China or Burma quicker and (more importantly) are less likely to be spotted in the process.
Japanese carriers detected off the coast of Antarctica - they materialized a few hundred miles away from and detected Convoy CX.1, headed to Christchurch along the southern map edge with one and a half US Divs plus extras on board. The resolution of this is still up in the air - the convoy was as heavily escorted as was practical for such an early departure (CA, 3 CL, 3DD), and air attacks yesterday torpedoed CLs Trenton and Leander but didn't hit (or detect) the merchants. Australia, Achilles and the destroyers (all of which are undamaged) will attempt a night intercept as they're not far away; merchants have "scattered" as best they can - not well, since they have fuel to reach Christchurch and not a drop more - and are making for various New Zealand ports. Everything now depends on tonight; if the carriers can be forced to retire or at least hang back things will proceed as previously, and if they can't Plan B will go into effect. Unfortunately the Pacific Fleet is two days north of Tahiti - I'd detected what I thought was KB heading northwest from Fiji a couple of days ago, so they were headed up to meet CX.2 and take it in, the assumption being that CX.1 would be ok. Assumptions, eh? At least they took half a dozen Kates with them...
Eastern Fleet accidentally went into action - four destroyers got the wrong orders and headed up to Ketapang in Borneo. (the entire force was going to go, but I changed my mind midway through the turn - someone didn't get the memo) Anyway, since they met 18 Jap ships, including four heavy cruisers, in daylight, you can imagine how that went. Naval forces in this area are, at this point, too heavy for any battle to have a positive outcome - in addition to the four cruisers at Ketapang there are at least four more off Celebes, plus six battleships moving south from Sarawak, so the fleet is heading back out into the Indian Ocean. If it comes down to it I'm prepared to leave the area entirely - will depend on how the events off New Zealand turn out. Ultimately the forces to invade Java - or even Palembang, I think - just aren't there right now, so a big standup fight does nothing useful.
Elsewhere, "quiet". Major Japanese land forces now up to eight (seriously) divisions assaulting Clark Field, four (though split into their sep. regiments) at Singapore, about 2.5 equivalents in SNLFs in the South Pacific, about 1.5 equivalents in SNLFs in Indonesia, and Imperial Guards at Moulmein, staring across the Salween. 7th Armoured Bde and an Indian Cav Rgt have set off from Imphal, direction Burma. 17th Indian Div should be forming up in a few days, and 18th Div will begin its crossing tomorrow. Two large Chinese corps are also headed for the Burmese border, since the Japanese are actively pulling troops out of China; their place in the line will be taken by a reconstructed corps moving down from Chungking. The AVG will be fully equipped with US-standard aircraft tomorrow, and will be in action as soon as they're flyable; the Chinese AF is putting together a couple of squadrons with competent pilots, which will make use of the released H-81s. Why bother? Well, P-39s and P-40s carry droptanks, and H-81s don't; means they can get in and out of China or Burma quicker and (more importantly) are less likely to be spotted in the process.
RE: January Looms
Jan. 28
Intercepts fail to come off - heaven knows how, since range between the taskforces was 1 hex. Australia and Achilles absorb most of the Japanese air power; they're both down, but they did their job. Several sub-units from CX.1 were attacked, with fascist aircraft sinking four tankers and two freighters; most of a Div's trucks and an artillery Rgt (thankfully, 75mm guns rather than 155s!) went down with them. If strikes continue tomorrow they'll be very bloody - there is literally nothing the ships can do but keep to their current courses and speeds, since the overall fuel situation is so critical.
Still, here and there a ray of sunshine peeks through the clouds:
Don't think it sank - though odds aren't bad that it will later - but every little helps. If it does go down the Dutch submarine force will outscore everyone else put together, I think - haven't counted up for a while, but they've definitely been the stars of the show. Tradeoff is that they're not out hunting merchants, of course...
Eastern Fleet is out into the Indian Ocean, having passed by at least four or five Japanese submarines without being detected. Course set is for Diego Garcia, where they'll rendezvous with, er...the Eastern Fleet. You know what I mean.
Catforce is forming up at Townsville - I think we're up to about 100 or so, with another dozen in the pools and a couple of units still winding their way across the Pacific. B-17s have been reconning Port Moresby to get Saros used to aircraft overhead, and also dropping supplies on Island A at a rate of about 30 tons a day.
Finally, Plan B is on. All unoccupied merchant shipping (and there's a lot of it - I don't send shipping out without adequate escorts, and there ain't a lot of those around at the moment) in the Pacific is headed for the Panama Canal, along with the Pacific Fleet (can I still call it that?); all troop movements will be worked (and heavily escorted, hence the carriers) via the Cape until I can take care of the fascist carrier force. That is a pretty high priority, even though you might not think it looking at what I've been doing so far - if my carriers had headed southwest from Tahiti (which was the original plan - bloody annoying) instead of northeast to pick up CX.2 I would have sent them in to engage the Japanese, "too early" be damned, and if an opportunity arises I will take it - none of this hiding into 1943.
Intercepts fail to come off - heaven knows how, since range between the taskforces was 1 hex. Australia and Achilles absorb most of the Japanese air power; they're both down, but they did their job. Several sub-units from CX.1 were attacked, with fascist aircraft sinking four tankers and two freighters; most of a Div's trucks and an artillery Rgt (thankfully, 75mm guns rather than 155s!) went down with them. If strikes continue tomorrow they'll be very bloody - there is literally nothing the ships can do but keep to their current courses and speeds, since the overall fuel situation is so critical.
Still, here and there a ray of sunshine peeks through the clouds:
Don't think it sank - though odds aren't bad that it will later - but every little helps. If it does go down the Dutch submarine force will outscore everyone else put together, I think - haven't counted up for a while, but they've definitely been the stars of the show. Tradeoff is that they're not out hunting merchants, of course...
Eastern Fleet is out into the Indian Ocean, having passed by at least four or five Japanese submarines without being detected. Course set is for Diego Garcia, where they'll rendezvous with, er...the Eastern Fleet. You know what I mean.
Catforce is forming up at Townsville - I think we're up to about 100 or so, with another dozen in the pools and a couple of units still winding their way across the Pacific. B-17s have been reconning Port Moresby to get Saros used to aircraft overhead, and also dropping supplies on Island A at a rate of about 30 tons a day.
Finally, Plan B is on. All unoccupied merchant shipping (and there's a lot of it - I don't send shipping out without adequate escorts, and there ain't a lot of those around at the moment) in the Pacific is headed for the Panama Canal, along with the Pacific Fleet (can I still call it that?); all troop movements will be worked (and heavily escorted, hence the carriers) via the Cape until I can take care of the fascist carrier force. That is a pretty high priority, even though you might not think it looking at what I've been doing so far - if my carriers had headed southwest from Tahiti (which was the original plan - bloody annoying) instead of northeast to pick up CX.2 I would have sent them in to engage the Japanese, "too early" be damned, and if an opportunity arises I will take it - none of this hiding into 1943.
RE: January Looms
blargh - wrote all this eight hours ago but clicked 'refresh' by mistake.
Jan. 29-30
Attacks on CX.1 persisted up to about 200 miles off New Zealand; broadly, the liners made it in and the freighters didn't. Lots of truck-based reefs in the area in years to come, I suspect, but the outlines of the force (including the majority of the actual combat troops) made it ashore, and the US has enough 'stuff' that the artillery, AA guns etc can be made up at least the once.
While very damaging, this whole display has demonstrated a few things:
- Japanese carriers will operate 'independently'; they split into two groups of three, each with minimal escort (a solitary destroyer tossed some torpedoes at I think Shokaku today - missed, sadly, but got away with it) for these attacks, and operated several hundred miles apart at all times. Very unfortunate that the Pacific Fleet went for CX.2 instead - chances are one of the groups could have been picked off if they hadn't.
- Safety of shipping across the South Pacific can't be guaranteed. I'm not running things as a numbers game in this area - if the ships can't be protected they won't be sent, so shipping and troop movements will use the Cape and Indian Ocean route for the time being. Happily I do have the shipping spare to pull this off - between ships waiting for escorts so they can sail from the West Coast and those waiting at Panama or Cape Town for incoming stuff upwards of a hundred are 'available', including numerous fast liners. Those independent sailings from Panama that have already left for New Zealand will continue, and more will probably take place here and there (probably just using the ships currently running them for the same trips), but nothing large-scale.
- Caveat to the above - Cape Town to [Perth/Albany/Adelaide] is not all that much less exposed than Tahiti to Christchurch, so the Pacific Fleet carriers are headed for Panama and then CT. They need fixing up anyway - most of the ships have been at sea since December 7th barring a few days here and there - and they'll be due fancy electronic gizmos and new aircraft soon anyway.
- I've been falling into the trap of assuming that since I wouldn't do something (like sending KB to Antarctica in January 1942, say - I do find it fairly risible, but, well, tough crap, eh?) it won't happen - CX.1 was heavily escorted out of ultimately fairly nebulous worries about AMCs or maybe a destroyer or two, not aircraft carriers. A little more forethought never hurt anyone, after all...
Elsewhere...
Resistance at Clark Field is on its last legs; combat strength has gone from 1400 to 1050 in days, with eight Japanese divisions and change attacking ceaselessly and upwards of a hundred aircraft bombing "airfields" (which is to say, inhibiting fortification - I'm sure the results work ok, but it don't half look weird) daily. Movement into Bataan has been ordered - there's no downside, as far as I can tell - but I doubt they'll make it. Still, the force has put up an extremely creditable defence considering what's been arrayed against them, so I have no complaints.
Resistance at Singapore is still "ok"; we'd be good but for 9th Div's buggy movement, but casualties are still ~3-1 in our favour, which works out ok given a 2-1 Japanese numbers advantage. Not a comfortable situation, though!
Burma: Imperial Guards, a few tanks and three Thai divs forced the Salween; the Thais were a surprise, given that I was explicitly told a couple of days ago that they wouldn't be involved! Burcorps (1st Burma Div + BFF Bde) did a fantastic job on defence, inflicting 130av+95s in casualties to 14av+14s of their own; force balance here is 420av friendly to 1010 (well, 880 now) opposing; if it weren't for the Thais I'd be fairly comfortable, but as it is things could go either way. 1st Burma Div has been digging in for weeks, however, so in theory it should take some shifting - all the casualties bar one squad (!) today were in BFF. 17th Indian Div should form up in 3-4 days, at which point we'll have to see how the balance sits down there. 7th Armoured Bde, 18th Div and "45th" Div (44/45/46 Bdes) are crossing over from Imphal, with 6th Aus due to launch in about a week. With prospects for low-risk offensive moves in the South Pacific being fairly poor (or rather, I suppose, not hugely dependent on overwhelming troop numbers vice naval control) Burma will receive the next US Div (44th, in about a month) to arrive, in addition to the Americal already shipping out. I would like to try and hold Shwebo so as to avoid having to slog through the jungle when it comes time to get moving forwards; the caveat is that I have to do it quietly, since if the Japanese realise what's being thrown at Burma they can drown me out.
Ten Japanese cruisers, +- nine (given accuracy of spotting reports so far) loiter 45 miles from Timor; no transports spotted, but past experience suggests about three times as many Japanese as the garrison they'll face will land tomorrow. USAAF groups at Alice Springs are about competent, so they may head up to Darwin for a little while.
Catforce continues to form up at Townsville; the first aviation troops are flying out to Island A today. I may launch before everyone's here - Japanese backfilling has begun, though focus so far has been entirely south of Rabaul.
So, that's today. The overall 'plan' (insofar as you can call it a plan):
- Hold in Burma through the monsoon, as far as Shwebo if possible. Aim for Rangoon no later than March 1943; if that can be done, operations in the direction of Singapore to take place with a view to getting shipping right down the Straits and into the East Indies. If it can't, repeat the exercise with twice the force next season.
- South Pacific doesn't actually give Japan anything useful if I don't use the South Pacific in the first place - just a long, thin supply line. Aim will be cutting this particular dive off right at the neck - New Caledonia (if garrison is light enough, to clear searches up) and New Guinea (playing Medusa) to be the targets in that order. Contingent on shipping from CT-Perth-Townsville being practical, I suppose. I have a lot of handy Dutch mini-merchants, so will see about pairing them up with gobs of naval support to allow the fast assault shipping to go elsewhere.
- If the Japanese put their carriers out anywhere they can be zapped, I'll go for it, having seen what I've seen over the past few days - none of this "hide until 1944" business. Obviously a lot will depend on how that works out - if I can pull off a Midway, I may just go at Malaya directly - no faffing around in Thailand. Anyway, that's for another year.
Jan. 29-30
Attacks on CX.1 persisted up to about 200 miles off New Zealand; broadly, the liners made it in and the freighters didn't. Lots of truck-based reefs in the area in years to come, I suspect, but the outlines of the force (including the majority of the actual combat troops) made it ashore, and the US has enough 'stuff' that the artillery, AA guns etc can be made up at least the once.
While very damaging, this whole display has demonstrated a few things:
- Japanese carriers will operate 'independently'; they split into two groups of three, each with minimal escort (a solitary destroyer tossed some torpedoes at I think Shokaku today - missed, sadly, but got away with it) for these attacks, and operated several hundred miles apart at all times. Very unfortunate that the Pacific Fleet went for CX.2 instead - chances are one of the groups could have been picked off if they hadn't.
- Safety of shipping across the South Pacific can't be guaranteed. I'm not running things as a numbers game in this area - if the ships can't be protected they won't be sent, so shipping and troop movements will use the Cape and Indian Ocean route for the time being. Happily I do have the shipping spare to pull this off - between ships waiting for escorts so they can sail from the West Coast and those waiting at Panama or Cape Town for incoming stuff upwards of a hundred are 'available', including numerous fast liners. Those independent sailings from Panama that have already left for New Zealand will continue, and more will probably take place here and there (probably just using the ships currently running them for the same trips), but nothing large-scale.
- Caveat to the above - Cape Town to [Perth/Albany/Adelaide] is not all that much less exposed than Tahiti to Christchurch, so the Pacific Fleet carriers are headed for Panama and then CT. They need fixing up anyway - most of the ships have been at sea since December 7th barring a few days here and there - and they'll be due fancy electronic gizmos and new aircraft soon anyway.
- I've been falling into the trap of assuming that since I wouldn't do something (like sending KB to Antarctica in January 1942, say - I do find it fairly risible, but, well, tough crap, eh?) it won't happen - CX.1 was heavily escorted out of ultimately fairly nebulous worries about AMCs or maybe a destroyer or two, not aircraft carriers. A little more forethought never hurt anyone, after all...
Elsewhere...
Resistance at Clark Field is on its last legs; combat strength has gone from 1400 to 1050 in days, with eight Japanese divisions and change attacking ceaselessly and upwards of a hundred aircraft bombing "airfields" (which is to say, inhibiting fortification - I'm sure the results work ok, but it don't half look weird) daily. Movement into Bataan has been ordered - there's no downside, as far as I can tell - but I doubt they'll make it. Still, the force has put up an extremely creditable defence considering what's been arrayed against them, so I have no complaints.
Resistance at Singapore is still "ok"; we'd be good but for 9th Div's buggy movement, but casualties are still ~3-1 in our favour, which works out ok given a 2-1 Japanese numbers advantage. Not a comfortable situation, though!
Burma: Imperial Guards, a few tanks and three Thai divs forced the Salween; the Thais were a surprise, given that I was explicitly told a couple of days ago that they wouldn't be involved! Burcorps (1st Burma Div + BFF Bde) did a fantastic job on defence, inflicting 130av+95s in casualties to 14av+14s of their own; force balance here is 420av friendly to 1010 (well, 880 now) opposing; if it weren't for the Thais I'd be fairly comfortable, but as it is things could go either way. 1st Burma Div has been digging in for weeks, however, so in theory it should take some shifting - all the casualties bar one squad (!) today were in BFF. 17th Indian Div should form up in 3-4 days, at which point we'll have to see how the balance sits down there. 7th Armoured Bde, 18th Div and "45th" Div (44/45/46 Bdes) are crossing over from Imphal, with 6th Aus due to launch in about a week. With prospects for low-risk offensive moves in the South Pacific being fairly poor (or rather, I suppose, not hugely dependent on overwhelming troop numbers vice naval control) Burma will receive the next US Div (44th, in about a month) to arrive, in addition to the Americal already shipping out. I would like to try and hold Shwebo so as to avoid having to slog through the jungle when it comes time to get moving forwards; the caveat is that I have to do it quietly, since if the Japanese realise what's being thrown at Burma they can drown me out.
Ten Japanese cruisers, +- nine (given accuracy of spotting reports so far) loiter 45 miles from Timor; no transports spotted, but past experience suggests about three times as many Japanese as the garrison they'll face will land tomorrow. USAAF groups at Alice Springs are about competent, so they may head up to Darwin for a little while.
Catforce continues to form up at Townsville; the first aviation troops are flying out to Island A today. I may launch before everyone's here - Japanese backfilling has begun, though focus so far has been entirely south of Rabaul.
So, that's today. The overall 'plan' (insofar as you can call it a plan):
- Hold in Burma through the monsoon, as far as Shwebo if possible. Aim for Rangoon no later than March 1943; if that can be done, operations in the direction of Singapore to take place with a view to getting shipping right down the Straits and into the East Indies. If it can't, repeat the exercise with twice the force next season.
- South Pacific doesn't actually give Japan anything useful if I don't use the South Pacific in the first place - just a long, thin supply line. Aim will be cutting this particular dive off right at the neck - New Caledonia (if garrison is light enough, to clear searches up) and New Guinea (playing Medusa) to be the targets in that order. Contingent on shipping from CT-Perth-Townsville being practical, I suppose. I have a lot of handy Dutch mini-merchants, so will see about pairing them up with gobs of naval support to allow the fast assault shipping to go elsewhere.
- If the Japanese put their carriers out anywhere they can be zapped, I'll go for it, having seen what I've seen over the past few days - none of this "hide until 1944" business. Obviously a lot will depend on how that works out - if I can pull off a Midway, I may just go at Malaya directly - no faffing around in Thailand. Anyway, that's for another year.
RE: February Frights
Jan. 31 - Feb. 2
Japanese shock attack again at Clark today - all seemed to be going well and then someone sneezed on a portrait of the Emperor or something, I guess, as the final result cost the Japanese about 450 disablements. Disruption is reportedly very high, so we might make Bataan after all. Moving out of the better terrain is of course a problem, but when you factor in the extra time it'll take the Japanese to get in and out of the place at this point I think we'll end up gaining a couple of days this way. While the full-force approach here has accelerated things, it's cost the Japanese a lot of casualties - I think it's the 53rd Div that's under 100av effective, and most of the others are showing varying degrees of strain. I guess when you're tossing upwards of 100,000 troops at a target you can afford some stragglers? [&:]
Koepang and Bandjermasin invaded; timing and force compositions were bang on what I thought they'd be, though absent any real ability to do anything about them that's small comfort. KP is still holding out as of today, but a breakthrough is expected tomorrow.
B-17 overflights over Port Moresby have definitely been noticed; apparently Saros thinks I'm preparing to try and reinvade. They'll bomb the place tomorrow; hopefully I can get any fighters at Truk moved down here. The last of the Catalinas arrived in Australia today; they'll fly up to Townsville tomorrow and launch for Truk as soon as the submarine Triton arrives to provide us with some recon - northern New Guinea has been partially occupied, so it's a bit of a race against time.
Jap carriers raided Auckland on the 31st; another dozen or so Kate pilots frittered away to sink a couple of AKLs. The poor buggers on minesweeping trawlers keep catching full-size carrier strikes - the two patrolling Auckland were jumped by about two dozen Vals each.
Lots of movement around Xi'an; the Japanese main force is advancing into the mountains, the only question being which way it'll go. Each route has - in theory - enough force to hold but no more than that, with a large reserve sitting halfway. I remain unsure of the exact number of Japanese up here, so there may be some tense moments once they arrive.
Japanese shock attack again at Clark today - all seemed to be going well and then someone sneezed on a portrait of the Emperor or something, I guess, as the final result cost the Japanese about 450 disablements. Disruption is reportedly very high, so we might make Bataan after all. Moving out of the better terrain is of course a problem, but when you factor in the extra time it'll take the Japanese to get in and out of the place at this point I think we'll end up gaining a couple of days this way. While the full-force approach here has accelerated things, it's cost the Japanese a lot of casualties - I think it's the 53rd Div that's under 100av effective, and most of the others are showing varying degrees of strain. I guess when you're tossing upwards of 100,000 troops at a target you can afford some stragglers? [&:]
Koepang and Bandjermasin invaded; timing and force compositions were bang on what I thought they'd be, though absent any real ability to do anything about them that's small comfort. KP is still holding out as of today, but a breakthrough is expected tomorrow.
B-17 overflights over Port Moresby have definitely been noticed; apparently Saros thinks I'm preparing to try and reinvade. They'll bomb the place tomorrow; hopefully I can get any fighters at Truk moved down here. The last of the Catalinas arrived in Australia today; they'll fly up to Townsville tomorrow and launch for Truk as soon as the submarine Triton arrives to provide us with some recon - northern New Guinea has been partially occupied, so it's a bit of a race against time.
Jap carriers raided Auckland on the 31st; another dozen or so Kate pilots frittered away to sink a couple of AKLs. The poor buggers on minesweeping trawlers keep catching full-size carrier strikes - the two patrolling Auckland were jumped by about two dozen Vals each.
Lots of movement around Xi'an; the Japanese main force is advancing into the mountains, the only question being which way it'll go. Each route has - in theory - enough force to hold but no more than that, with a large reserve sitting halfway. I remain unsure of the exact number of Japanese up here, so there may be some tense moments once they arrive.
RE: February Frights
Feb. 3
Air battles over Batavia at last; Zeroes flying from Ketapang (this is in itself fairly impressive - three days ago there wasn't an airfield there!) do a reasonable job, shooting down...I forget how many, but total air losses for the day were 30 v 17; total air losses for the war are about 250 in our favour, if the statisticians are to be believed. (would you believe I tend to write these things after I've sent the turn off? I'm sure you'd never guess...). The IJN has been very careful to stay 9 hexes or more away from Dutch bombers, and with good reason - they're theoretically pretty hot pilots by now. Unfortunately what they're not likely to have is much in the way of escorts once the time to use them comes - wish I could pack'em up and ship them to Ceylon, but it weren't to be.
The AVG and four British Hurricane squadrons are in Rangoon for a one-day event; I don't have the aviation support to keep them operating there for long (or the aircraft for attritional warfare, at this point) but the same Japanese squadrons have been flying the same missions for about two weeks now, and the strain's starting to show - fighters are ditching the bombers they're supposed to be escorting about 75% of the time, I'd say, which leaves a potential opening on some Nells. I expect Rangoon to be closed down in retaliation tomorrow, so everyone'll bugger off via air and rail for Katha, where there's a support network for them. This will mark the combat debut of the Hurricane and the P-39 in the Pacific - will be interesting to see how they do in the hands of what are about the best guys we've got. A first Chinese squadron is training up on the P-40 at Calcutta; a couple more, stuffed with all the reasonably competent pilots that could be found in China, should be converting in a couple of days.
Similarly, Catforce is complete and about prepped for launch; 155 aircraft will leave for a vacation spot not too far from Manus tomorrow, assuming the sub gets us the required data. They're all flying out supplies tonight - hopefully that plus the stuff the B-17s dropped will be enough for one day. Supplies permitting I'd like to stay for two - daylight raid on day 1, night raid on day 2, then back to Australia, but we'll see - I have no idea what the actual consumption will be. B-17s will hit Port Moresby from high altitude tomorrow - no real aim beyond giving the Japanese something shiny to look at.
The two Eastern Fleets have combined at Diego Garcia - those ships newly arrived from Java all need varying degrees of maintenance, having been run hard and almost exclusively kept at sea over the last two months, so the whole show's off to Colombo for some time off. Dutch cruiser Sumatra is the last to leave - the threatening situation on her activation compelled a quick departure for Australia, where she'll be the guardship at Perth for a little while. Oddly enough despite being the oldest Dutch cruisers Java and Sumatra are probably the most useful in the long term - none of them have guns that are of much use, but the oldies do at least have enough armour to put up with 6in guns and below.
Another dozen or so fast transports are headed for East Timor - I wish I'd saved a screenshot of the retiring Koepang group as there were about 25 assorted TBs and APDs in there. After this, it's Australia or bust - enough mobile forces to punish an SNLF or two landing at one of the outports are on the way, but the supply situation is obviously tenuous at best.
On the ground, pretty quiet.
Air battles over Batavia at last; Zeroes flying from Ketapang (this is in itself fairly impressive - three days ago there wasn't an airfield there!) do a reasonable job, shooting down...I forget how many, but total air losses for the day were 30 v 17; total air losses for the war are about 250 in our favour, if the statisticians are to be believed. (would you believe I tend to write these things after I've sent the turn off? I'm sure you'd never guess...). The IJN has been very careful to stay 9 hexes or more away from Dutch bombers, and with good reason - they're theoretically pretty hot pilots by now. Unfortunately what they're not likely to have is much in the way of escorts once the time to use them comes - wish I could pack'em up and ship them to Ceylon, but it weren't to be.
The AVG and four British Hurricane squadrons are in Rangoon for a one-day event; I don't have the aviation support to keep them operating there for long (or the aircraft for attritional warfare, at this point) but the same Japanese squadrons have been flying the same missions for about two weeks now, and the strain's starting to show - fighters are ditching the bombers they're supposed to be escorting about 75% of the time, I'd say, which leaves a potential opening on some Nells. I expect Rangoon to be closed down in retaliation tomorrow, so everyone'll bugger off via air and rail for Katha, where there's a support network for them. This will mark the combat debut of the Hurricane and the P-39 in the Pacific - will be interesting to see how they do in the hands of what are about the best guys we've got. A first Chinese squadron is training up on the P-40 at Calcutta; a couple more, stuffed with all the reasonably competent pilots that could be found in China, should be converting in a couple of days.
Similarly, Catforce is complete and about prepped for launch; 155 aircraft will leave for a vacation spot not too far from Manus tomorrow, assuming the sub gets us the required data. They're all flying out supplies tonight - hopefully that plus the stuff the B-17s dropped will be enough for one day. Supplies permitting I'd like to stay for two - daylight raid on day 1, night raid on day 2, then back to Australia, but we'll see - I have no idea what the actual consumption will be. B-17s will hit Port Moresby from high altitude tomorrow - no real aim beyond giving the Japanese something shiny to look at.
The two Eastern Fleets have combined at Diego Garcia - those ships newly arrived from Java all need varying degrees of maintenance, having been run hard and almost exclusively kept at sea over the last two months, so the whole show's off to Colombo for some time off. Dutch cruiser Sumatra is the last to leave - the threatening situation on her activation compelled a quick departure for Australia, where she'll be the guardship at Perth for a little while. Oddly enough despite being the oldest Dutch cruisers Java and Sumatra are probably the most useful in the long term - none of them have guns that are of much use, but the oldies do at least have enough armour to put up with 6in guns and below.
Another dozen or so fast transports are headed for East Timor - I wish I'd saved a screenshot of the retiring Koepang group as there were about 25 assorted TBs and APDs in there. After this, it's Australia or bust - enough mobile forces to punish an SNLF or two landing at one of the outports are on the way, but the supply situation is obviously tenuous at best.
On the ground, pretty quiet.
RE: February Frights
Feb. 4
Triton's getting a new ice cream machine if she makes it back - the sub has reached Truk and is waiting to pick up anyone shot down, having attacked three! destroyers and CL Kiso today without being damaged in return. Unfortunately the recon, while excellent, isn't so positive - 109 ships in port, but fighter strength at Truk has gone from 7 at the last report to 70, so it'll have to be a night raid. Still, the Catalinas have flown out to Rambutyo; we'll just have to see how they do in the dark.
Air battles continue over Java; the Dutch did rather better today, shooting down nine Zeros for six losses. Bombers will launch at shipping tomorrow - it's clear the net's closing in, so although it's very tempting to imagine burning invasion fleets the reality is that opposition in the air is just going to get heavier. Naval search arcs have been tailored such that they should attack as far away from Japanese fighters as possible, but I expect tomorrow will be very ugly...
Fighters out of Rangoon were also busy; they met Oscars over Burma Corps and, broadly, took them to pieces - "only" eight shot down, but most of the rest were sent home smoking. 24 unescorted Nells followed, but the fighters were out of position by that point so only managed to get five of them.
Lautem invaded - 24 destroyer transports in this landing TF and nothing else. Hell of a story there...
Triton's getting a new ice cream machine if she makes it back - the sub has reached Truk and is waiting to pick up anyone shot down, having attacked three! destroyers and CL Kiso today without being damaged in return. Unfortunately the recon, while excellent, isn't so positive - 109 ships in port, but fighter strength at Truk has gone from 7 at the last report to 70, so it'll have to be a night raid. Still, the Catalinas have flown out to Rambutyo; we'll just have to see how they do in the dark.
Air battles continue over Java; the Dutch did rather better today, shooting down nine Zeros for six losses. Bombers will launch at shipping tomorrow - it's clear the net's closing in, so although it's very tempting to imagine burning invasion fleets the reality is that opposition in the air is just going to get heavier. Naval search arcs have been tailored such that they should attack as far away from Japanese fighters as possible, but I expect tomorrow will be very ugly...
Fighters out of Rangoon were also busy; they met Oscars over Burma Corps and, broadly, took them to pieces - "only" eight shot down, but most of the rest were sent home smoking. 24 unescorted Nells followed, but the fighters were out of position by that point so only managed to get five of them.
Lautem invaded - 24 destroyer transports in this landing TF and nothing else. Hell of a story there...
RE: February Frights
Feb. 5
No Catalina flights - maybe they were fogged in. They haven't been spotted, as far as I can tell, so I'll give'em another day.
Dutch bombers fly out from Surabaya, and attack minesweeping destroyers off Bandjermasin - the entire force of 70 or so aircraft flew, meeting no opposition in the air, end result being one DMS and one freighter bombed. Not impressed! Losses at least total one Martin bomber shot down by AA fire from Ise, which was also hanging out there.
In China, the Japanese advance on Xi'an is resolving itself; 14 infantry divisions, totalling over 6000av, attack a Chinese force about 1/3 of that size in the mountains northwest of Nanyang. Japanese force here was 1800av the day before yesterday, so everyone's arrived and launched straight off the march; the air recon pilots aren't getting any medals, though I do feel better about moving an RAF PRU in from Rangoon to Changsha. Simultaneously, 4 infantry divisions advance to contact northwest of Loyang; here the force balance is less perilous, with 1828av in Japs facing 1300 or so Chinese. The Nanyang vector forced about half the defending force to retreat, although losses weren't too heavy; true to form, the two Communist corps, Zhu De's and Peng Dehuai's, held; they'll be buggered up tomorrow, but it's another day for the reserves to get into position. At least two more Japanese divisions and some armoured units are local but not yet engaged, so we'll see how they position over the coming days. So, twenty infantry divisions and heaven knows what else that I haven't seen yet. That makes current known deployments:
20x moving on Xi'an
8x at Clark Field (though they're pretty beaten up)
4x at Singapore
at least 2x at Wuchang
1x in Burma
1x on Fiji (still?)
Plus...three, maybe four equivalents in SNLF troops scattered around.
Truth be told, I'm not at all comfortable with the situation; I'd estimated the total Japanese advance force at about half that, so a major part of the armies up here are several days' march away. I can hold the 6000 - I think - the problem that emerges is holding whatever decides to go around the block. It does mean that the rest of China has been heavily stripped - at least two divisions from Shanghai have been added to the force on Luzon - so the provincial armies are moving to get some cheap kicks in while they can. Ultimately it's more issues with expectations management - "well, I wouldn't send twenty divisions up a goat track, so surely he won't" sort of thing.
Japanese parachute troops land at and capture Port Blair - not a surprise, signals having pointed out their arrival in Bangkok a while back. 17th Indian Div has formed up and is packing for Rangoon; Imperial Guards have been passive ever since their crossing, presumably bringing more forces forwards; difficult to say how things will go down here at present. 18th and 45th Divs are about two weeks out from Katha; 6th Aus Div has formed up in Assam and is on the road to Imphal; 23rd Indian Div is available in an emergency, though it's not really combat-ready at this point. I'm a little torn here; there's a significant chance Xi'an will fall, and if it goes Lanzhou will follow - if this happens the Burma Road will be the only thing even half-way keeping China afloat. Can Rangoon be held, never mind retaken later? Inquiring minds want to know...
No Catalina flights - maybe they were fogged in. They haven't been spotted, as far as I can tell, so I'll give'em another day.
Dutch bombers fly out from Surabaya, and attack minesweeping destroyers off Bandjermasin - the entire force of 70 or so aircraft flew, meeting no opposition in the air, end result being one DMS and one freighter bombed. Not impressed! Losses at least total one Martin bomber shot down by AA fire from Ise, which was also hanging out there.
In China, the Japanese advance on Xi'an is resolving itself; 14 infantry divisions, totalling over 6000av, attack a Chinese force about 1/3 of that size in the mountains northwest of Nanyang. Japanese force here was 1800av the day before yesterday, so everyone's arrived and launched straight off the march; the air recon pilots aren't getting any medals, though I do feel better about moving an RAF PRU in from Rangoon to Changsha. Simultaneously, 4 infantry divisions advance to contact northwest of Loyang; here the force balance is less perilous, with 1828av in Japs facing 1300 or so Chinese. The Nanyang vector forced about half the defending force to retreat, although losses weren't too heavy; true to form, the two Communist corps, Zhu De's and Peng Dehuai's, held; they'll be buggered up tomorrow, but it's another day for the reserves to get into position. At least two more Japanese divisions and some armoured units are local but not yet engaged, so we'll see how they position over the coming days. So, twenty infantry divisions and heaven knows what else that I haven't seen yet. That makes current known deployments:
20x moving on Xi'an
8x at Clark Field (though they're pretty beaten up)
4x at Singapore
at least 2x at Wuchang
1x in Burma
1x on Fiji (still?)
Plus...three, maybe four equivalents in SNLF troops scattered around.
Truth be told, I'm not at all comfortable with the situation; I'd estimated the total Japanese advance force at about half that, so a major part of the armies up here are several days' march away. I can hold the 6000 - I think - the problem that emerges is holding whatever decides to go around the block. It does mean that the rest of China has been heavily stripped - at least two divisions from Shanghai have been added to the force on Luzon - so the provincial armies are moving to get some cheap kicks in while they can. Ultimately it's more issues with expectations management - "well, I wouldn't send twenty divisions up a goat track, so surely he won't" sort of thing.
Japanese parachute troops land at and capture Port Blair - not a surprise, signals having pointed out their arrival in Bangkok a while back. 17th Indian Div has formed up and is packing for Rangoon; Imperial Guards have been passive ever since their crossing, presumably bringing more forces forwards; difficult to say how things will go down here at present. 18th and 45th Divs are about two weeks out from Katha; 6th Aus Div has formed up in Assam and is on the road to Imphal; 23rd Indian Div is available in an emergency, though it's not really combat-ready at this point. I'm a little torn here; there's a significant chance Xi'an will fall, and if it goes Lanzhou will follow - if this happens the Burma Road will be the only thing even half-way keeping China afloat. Can Rangoon be held, never mind retaken later? Inquiring minds want to know...
RE: February Frights
Planning in a Vacuum
Saros is moving from Christchurch to Wellington yesterday and today (can't imagine why), and heaven knows I have nothing better to do on a Friday afternoon, so I thought I'd lay out how things have been progressing over the last...gosh, it's been nearly two months...if only so I can come back and look it up a few months from now. Anyway:
Key Losses in the Air:
Intelligence estimate of total aircraft losses is 910 Japanese to 646 UN. I have no idea what the 'average' is for losses by this point, but I'll take it. I haven't particularly been avoiding fights except in Burma - the air forces in the PI, Malaya and Java have all stood their ground, and by and large I'd say they've performed pretty well, particularly considering the numbers they've been up against. Notably, nearly all the UN losses have been in the air - however well or badly they've been doing, they have been getting some shots in in return, rather than being bombed on the ground.
Key Losses at Sea
- CV/CVL: Ryujo, Taiyo (75 a/c equiv, both to Dutch subs) vs N/A
- BB, BC: None
- CA, CL: Kashii (no giggling!) vs Australia, Leander, Achilles, Concord (all lost defending CX.1)
- DD, DE, TB, DMS, APD: 4-8 (only identified is Kagero, but I've been complained at for several by mines, patrol aircraft etc); vs 14 (two modern USN, 11 old USN, 1 old Brit)
- Merchant: anywhere from 8-25 (a fair amount of damages, but few observed sinkings vs around 100 (most in the Phillipines, Australia and New Zealand)
- Subs: 7 (2 at sea, 4 to mines, 1 to a/c) vs 8 (2 at sea, 6 bombed in port - bloody things keep going into Surabaya...)
Known significant damage:
- two Japanese CA (one bombed and badly damaged off Kuching, last identified repairing at Hong Kong; one bombed with unknown damage off Celebes but not seen since)
- CL Mauritius (torpedoed off Singapore on Dec. 8, now back in tip-top shape at Cape Town.
Largest merchant known to have been sunk is the 10,000t tanker L.P St. Clair, lost in the CX.1 debacle; notably over half the merchant losses in that 100 are xAKLs, with the four tankers (CX.1), two AOs (PI), two military AKs and two fast (though small) xAPs being the only 'critical' losses.
So, not a very 'bloody' game so far (unless you're on a merchant ship of 1000t or less). The situation in the DEI has been odd - I've mostly been keeping naval forces on the 'wrong' side of Java waiting for an opportunity to dart in; Saros has mostly been keeping very heavy escort forces between invasion sites and Allied airbases, juuust out of range of airstrikes. End result - lots of posturing, lots of wear and tear, but not much actual action. Suits me, I guess - the head says it's a bad thing, but the heart likes it.
Saros is moving from Christchurch to Wellington yesterday and today (can't imagine why), and heaven knows I have nothing better to do on a Friday afternoon, so I thought I'd lay out how things have been progressing over the last...gosh, it's been nearly two months...if only so I can come back and look it up a few months from now. Anyway:
Key Losses in the Air:
Code: Select all
174 Army 2E 140 Nell + Betty 124 Zero 114 Nate 111 Kate 82 Val 53 Oscar
vs
148 Buffalo 107 P-40 66 Catalina (all! to crashes or capture) ~60 2E Bombers (all but 6 Hudson, Martin 139) 22 P-35 16 F4F ~45 Other Fighter 16 B-17Intelligence estimate of total aircraft losses is 910 Japanese to 646 UN. I have no idea what the 'average' is for losses by this point, but I'll take it. I haven't particularly been avoiding fights except in Burma - the air forces in the PI, Malaya and Java have all stood their ground, and by and large I'd say they've performed pretty well, particularly considering the numbers they've been up against. Notably, nearly all the UN losses have been in the air - however well or badly they've been doing, they have been getting some shots in in return, rather than being bombed on the ground.
Key Losses at Sea
- CV/CVL: Ryujo, Taiyo (75 a/c equiv, both to Dutch subs) vs N/A
- BB, BC: None
- CA, CL: Kashii (no giggling!) vs Australia, Leander, Achilles, Concord (all lost defending CX.1)
- DD, DE, TB, DMS, APD: 4-8 (only identified is Kagero, but I've been complained at for several by mines, patrol aircraft etc); vs 14 (two modern USN, 11 old USN, 1 old Brit)
- Merchant: anywhere from 8-25 (a fair amount of damages, but few observed sinkings vs around 100 (most in the Phillipines, Australia and New Zealand)
- Subs: 7 (2 at sea, 4 to mines, 1 to a/c) vs 8 (2 at sea, 6 bombed in port - bloody things keep going into Surabaya...)
Known significant damage:
- two Japanese CA (one bombed and badly damaged off Kuching, last identified repairing at Hong Kong; one bombed with unknown damage off Celebes but not seen since)
- CL Mauritius (torpedoed off Singapore on Dec. 8, now back in tip-top shape at Cape Town.
Largest merchant known to have been sunk is the 10,000t tanker L.P St. Clair, lost in the CX.1 debacle; notably over half the merchant losses in that 100 are xAKLs, with the four tankers (CX.1), two AOs (PI), two military AKs and two fast (though small) xAPs being the only 'critical' losses.
So, not a very 'bloody' game so far (unless you're on a merchant ship of 1000t or less). The situation in the DEI has been odd - I've mostly been keeping naval forces on the 'wrong' side of Java waiting for an opportunity to dart in; Saros has mostly been keeping very heavy escort forces between invasion sites and Allied airbases, juuust out of range of airstrikes. End result - lots of posturing, lots of wear and tear, but not much actual action. Suits me, I guess - the head says it's a bad thing, but the heart likes it.