OT - NKorea Situations

[Captain Cruft]

It does all look like loony tunes from here, but what I'm thinking is that Japan is extremely vulnerable economically at this point. They are in a position which though not as bad is somewhat analogous to the 1930s i.e. they have a large energy problem.

Maybe someone thinks this might be the time to force Japan into a war that will ruin it? What would Japan do if North Korea attacked it with conventional weapons?

What if all the anti US rhetoric is just a deception to hide the real target?

I have no idea, just some thoughts that popped into my head as I was loading up those Resources at Fusan ...

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: LoBaron

To be honest I think NK does not display anything greatly diverging from what they have been trying (successfully I might add)
for decades already.

They up the tension until it gets close to unbearable, mix threats with display of wounded pride and comndemnations of western acts of
aggression, and then return to the bargaining table, agreeing to slowly step down again in exchange for foreign aid. Kim Jong Un might even
be a bit more excentric than his father, but he learned the ropes under his leadership, and bargaining for foreign aid with nuclear weapons
was what his father did all the time. It works on two ways: keeping the Population from starving completely, and at the same time justifying
the nuclear arsenal.

Regarding China, I do not think one could simply say they want NK getting taught a lesson, or want to get rid of them as an ally.
The DPRK is a buffer zone against US troops, and it is a great buffer zone. Noone gets through there. The Chinese might be annoyed with NKs way
of dealing with foreign politics, but I do not think China believes this outweights the benefits. Losing NK, and China got US troops and a western
oriented ROK in their backyard. I think they still prefer crazy Kim.

This is mostly my perspective as well.

I'd add that China would hate an unstable DPRK, as there would be a predictable surge of refugees across their border. That would be an unmitigated disaster, so from China's perspective-status quo is the best option. The Chinese benefit from a 'stable' DPRK, as it keeps the refugees off their turf and is also a bulwark against the rest of the "West", including Japan and S. Korea. The Chinese couldn't give a rip about the DPRK's use of slave labor, its forced labor camps, political concentration camps (I use that term very specifically) and deified dictatorship. It serves their ends, so there you go. If the Chinese can keep the starving North Koreans on North Korean territory, it's better than having starving North Koreans on Chinese territory.

The DPRK is doing nothing more than making noise at the South and the rest of the world (including Japan and the US) in order to get some appeasing settlement. If I had a buck for every time they have pledged "war" or saber rattled in the last 20 years, I'd be wealthy. Let 'em make noise.

By the way, I think we should enact a lend/lease with the South Koreans. We should lend them the arsenal of democracy to fend off aggression from regional neighbors. OK-it's not an original idea-but bear with me. If it so happens that they are victims of a nuclear attack from Pyongyang, then we should 'lend' them a fully equipped and loaded Ohio Class SSBN, complete with 24 Trident II SLBMs and the trained crew to show them how to use it in their defense. As part of the training, we temporarily turn over command positions to a South Korean Captain, XO and Weapons officer and let nature take its course. So, that's 4x24 W88 475 KT nominal yield MIRVs. That oughta just about cover every potato patch in North Korea. Assuming they had potatoes there.

Hey, if the DPRK wants to export its nuclear weapons technology and then use it in an offensive manner against its neighbors, why should we not beat 'em at their own game? Plus, WE didn't pull the trigger. It was the South Koreans that nuked 'em back.

Of course, it won't come to that. I just hope we have the stomach to roll our eyes, let 'em rant and carry on status quo. I'd like to think that we would just ignore them, but history suggests that South Korea is an easy mark.

[Gunnulf]

This telegraph article has a fairly decent stab explaining NKs 'diplomacy'. Basically attempting to bargain for reducing sanctions. Whether this time he has gone too far and risks losing too much face with his people if he is forced to blink remains to be seen... :

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/david ... ligerence/

An instructive guide to diplomacy Pyongyang-style is provided by the tale of the nuclear facility at Yongbyon. As part of his strategy of escalation, Kim Jong-un declared on Tuesday that he would reopen this plant. The regime had agreed to shut it down in 2007. Kim probably hopes to win a concession in order to refrain from actually restarting Yongbyon – and keep the agreement that his regime has already made.
That is the general pattern of North Korean behaviour. The country makes an agreement in return for food aid or economic help. Then it breaks the deal. Then it wins another concession in returning for promising to keep the agreement that it has already made (and broken). Robert Gates, the former US defence secretary, ruefully described this as “selling the same horse twice”.
As for Yongbyon, it would take at least six months to get this plant up and running. And North Korea probably has little use for it anyway. The regime’s first two nuclear bombs were made with plutonium extracted from Yongbyon. But North Korea has since developed the alternative route to a Bomb via uranium enrichment. There are signs that the most recent nuclear test in February could have used a device made from uranium.
So Yongbyon is almost certainly surplus to requirements: the regime could build nuclear weapons without this plant. In any case, it already has enough plutonium in stock to build up to a dozen devices. So if this crisis is defused by a North Korean agreement to refrain from restarting Yongbyon, this would be a pretty meaningless concession.
You can sum this up as follows. North Korea is effectively saying “remember that nuclear plant which we agreed to shut down six years ago and we don’t need anyway? Well, we’re going to start it up again. Now give us a concession and we might keep the earlier deal. And if we do leave Yongbyon lying idle, we lose nothing anyway.” How do you deal with a regime like that?

[Tophat1815]

Well you'd certainly solve the issue of starving North Koreans.[8|]

How about we get a friendly country,ally or adversary to make some target bribes for regime change? Some of the North Korean hierarchy are looking long in the tooth and lavish retirement might look better than a burlap sack in a potato field. Heck it might even stop that nasty little unauthorized printing of US $'s that seems to be a North Korean sport.

[1EyedJacks]

I think all we need to do is run weekly drops of junk food for about three months. We could start with Kentucky Fried Chicken, send over McDonalds Burgers and Fries the next week, Pizza Hut the week after that and keep it up for 3 months. Them North Koreans ain't dumb. They'll start thinking about all the milk and honey on the other side and pretty soon they'll have a regime change...

[gradenko2k]

ORIGINAL: Gunnulf

This telegraph article has a fairly decent stab explaining NKs 'diplomacy'. Basically attempting to bargain for reducing sanctions. Whether this time he has gone too far and risks losing too much face with his people if he is forced to blink remains to be seen... :

I doubt that Un will lose face with the North Korean populace. The way I would expect this to play out would be for the US/SK naval exercises to end by the 30th of this month, then Un will declare a victory. He gains credibility in the eyes of his people, the US gets to ship a couple more air defense systems to SK without escalating the situation because NK's threats are a justification, and everyone goes home happy.

The situation is "different" insofar as NK is doing a different kind of saber-rattling, but only because they already did the "surprise attack" type of saber-rattling back in 2010 when they shelled that island off the mainland. They can't do that again because it'd just be a rehash, and a repeating pattern means their bluff and bluster won't be taken seriously. Instead, they're bluffing and blustering via constant escalation, but in the end its really just bluff and bluster. The media just likes to run B-roll of jets and tanks and goose-stepping soldiers because its good TV.

[bigred]

ORIGINAL: Symon

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve
Consider it this way John. China lost nearly a million men in the Korean war. While North Korea is ruled by asswipes, it is ruled by THEIR asswipes. I wouldn't count on their non- interferance , if only because they have invested so much in lives and treasure. Imagine if the Phillipines went the way of Kim, would the USA be so quick to abandon them? Or would we keep trying to chivy them back into place , while telling other countries "Back-off"? [&:]

I suppose, Steve. I do believe in the investment of life and treasure. That's what makes NK such an utter horror show. Wouldn't mind talking with you about the philosophy of violence, but in the meantime, I'm looking at NK being a field of radioactive glass; but that's just me.

Ciao. John

IIRC last year the NKoreans shelled a village on an island off SKorea, destroyed some houses and killed some civilians.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fire_ ... Island.jpg

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=htt ... Aw&dur=418

[Rising-Sun]

wdolson, thank for taking care of that on the topic. Well you guys remember when Japan was at war with China back in July 1937, then before Pearl Harbor was hit, USA cut off embargos of Steels, Oils and other materials because Japaneses wouldnt back off or withdrawl from China?

Cutting off the food aids, maybe or may not be a good idea, it would put them in a situations like "well fu*k it, let do it and there is no other ways!" They have been starving for many years and they are not happy about it. Only way to work with them is to understand them, be kind and try to do the right things without pushing too far with regrets or even threaten them will piss them off. Maybe exchange luruxy items, foods and other goodies they would like for exchange for military hardwares. Living in peace is relaxing and living in horrors for many years is not easy to fix. IDK, guess i need to do some research way back in 1950s when the war started, not sure who to blame for this situations.

We dont want to see Korea going up in smokes as well countries around it, plus many lives would be lost because of miscalulations or understanding.

[Jorge_Stanbury]

Pure rethorics in my opinion. It is also important to understand capabilities before intentions.

The biggest difference from the PH times is that today it is only the US who has a monopoly in crippling surprise attack capabilities (usually, but not only through the use of stealth bombers).

For lil-Kim the third, it will be completely impossible to launch any meaningful surprise attack against the US. Sure some bizarre shelling or even a terririst attack can be attempted, and if successful, civilian losses guaranteed, but anything more "interesting" like arming or fueling a nuclear tipped missile (assuming they have the capability) will raise red flags quickly enough for pre-emptive strikes

[Rising-Sun]

That is true, i dont think they have fully capable of launching long range missles yet, since they are young or beginning to learn on their own. So we all know that they have failed couple of times in the past. But if they manage to have import from Russian made hardwares or China, that would be a serious problem.

[zuluhour]

I want to see his barber, no wonder he's always PO.

[oldman45]

My question is does Kim Jong-un have the political savvy his fore fathers did? They knew how to tug on the capes of the US, Japan ETC. I do get the societal differences at play here, and perhaps the idea that the US president is weak when it comes to war is why he choose this path.

[DuckofTindalos]

I heard a talking head opine that the NK's are afraid they'll go the way of Iraq, and that's why they're beating the drums this loudly.

[decaro]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock
However, although North Korea's army outnumbers the South Korean army and the remarkably small 27,000 American troop contingent ...

That troop contingent is just a "trip wire" to trigger US intervention, which could go to tactical nukes if necessary despite the standing ROK policy of reclaiming the North and re-unifying the Korean Peninsula.

Seoul has always been considered indefensible, so every year we did a computer Tewt that employed a MacArthur-like amphib landing to retake it.

[decaro]

ORIGINAL: oldman45

My question is does Kim Jong-un have the political savvy his fore fathers did? ...

No.
Word is that he only knows how to rachet-up the tension and not how to diffuse it after his point is made.

[tocaff]

I hope it's just more blustering from NK. A war is bloody business there no matter who wins. The terrain is something that if used properly would be a defensive nightmare to deal with.

Despite all the high tech toys the US has it never retains the lesson that it relearns in each war: It never has enough infantry.

China and the US are to closely tied to one another financially through trade so the 2 of them fighting serves nobody's purpose.

[rockmedic109]

I hope it's only sabre rattling and tantrum-throwing.

But a part of me thinks that something feels different. Maybe it's only that he's new in the office. But I fear that he does not have a firm control of North Korea and this could destablize the situation beyond hope of recovery. There is no question in my mind that if he {or one of the others in the NK government} does something stupid, the NKs are going to get wacked hard, but is it still difficult for the people involved which now includes employees of South Korean businesses and their consumers elsewhere.

But I remember flying to China to pick up my daughter in March of 2010, just after that South Korean frigate blew up. I was not happy about flying anywhere near the Korean penninsula in a slow moving, non-maneuverable target. I paid very close attension to the listed flight path on the seat-back video screen and hoped that it was correct. I am glad I've already got my second daughter and have no intention of returning for a decade or more.

[Chickenboy]

.

[Cribtop]

I agree with STRATFOR's take that the DPRK intentionally projects the image that it is "ferocious, weak and crazy" as the best strategy to preserve their loony tunes regime. Google the analysis, IMHO it's worth the read.

And if you want to see the level of lunacy, google the article by a former diplomat (British, I think) that talked about his meeting and formal introduction to the Great Leader - years AFTER he passed away.

[DivePac88]

ORIGINAL: Terminus

I heard a talking head opine that the NK's are afraid they'll go the way of Iraq, and that's why they're beating the drums this loudly.

You hit the nail on the head there T; This new leader thinks he's fighting for the life of his regime, and he is probably correct. No country can employ the resources of their country at the level of military capacity, for an extended period of time that NK is. He has to use his forces now he thinks, ether to pressure or in the extreme with a limited-war to force concessions from the west.