Courtenay's solitaire AAR

[Courtenay]

S/O 39X11: The weather roll is also eight, goes to 9: St, R, R, St, F, F (adv +2, WR +1)
Denmark lives yet another day, and maybe even until Dec, or even Jan.

The Germans have a real decision to make. Combined or Naval? If the weather were Storm, they would go for naval. As it, this turn was so short, that they are worried that they won't get all there units back to France by M/A. They pick combined.

The Japanese try a ground strike through the rain. It fails. They then make an attack on Changsha, with Umezu providing support. They get a 1/1 (18 on 2d10 table) DR 8 + 9. The Japanese lose a 1-4 INF XX while the Chinese lose the Chungking militia. Since there are no reinforcements coming for the Chinese, the Japanese are confident that Changsha will fall next turn. However, the Japanese will not win the war trading build points with even up with the Chinese.

The Chinese generals are boasting about how their brilliant tactics are slowing the Japanese advance. [:)]

The turn ends on a die roll of 2.

[Courtenay]

No partisans were produced.


Neutrality pact: The Germans put a 1 chit in the defensive pool, and a 4 into the offensive pool. The Russians put a 2 in the defensive pool.

Now for the first fun part, US entry:

The Americans draw a 2 into the Japanese pool, their first chit there. The Americans have two 4s, a 3, a 2 and a 1 in the German pool, and a 2 in the Japanese pool. They pick resources to China and resources to western Allies (I like production). Both picks move a chit (the 2 and the 3, respectively) to the tension pools.

Ge/It entry 17, tension 6; Ja entry 6, tension 5.

[Courtenay]

In the return to base step, I discover that I have been playing the game wrong for twenty years. Somehow, I had thought that units at sea that want to stay at sea must slide down a sea box, and thought they could slide down more if they wanted to. This is incorrect; they have to slide down exactly one box. The odd thing about this is that this was not just my mistake, but one made by everyone in my group; or, if they knew the rule correctly, they never caught my mistake. Playing with the incorrect rule makes convoy defense much easier.

Discovering that mistake reinforces my belief that the rules to WiF are written on quantum paper. Several apparently intelligent people would read them, and we would all agree that they said something. Some months later, we would read them again, and this time they would say something else. This happened many times; it is my contention that the text itself changed over that interval -- that the the text was, in fact, probabilistic. The explanation for this odd phenomenon is that the rules were written on quantum paper, on which the text can change between readings.

That is the most reasonable explanation, right? [:)]

[Courtenay]

Production:

The Germans have 24 factories, but lost one to strat bombing. The 23rd factory does nothing, so they idle it and save three oil, giving them 17 build points (BP), of which two go to Russia. 15 BP.

The Japanese are getting 16 resources. This would produce 12 BP. If they save two oil, they get 11 BP. This is clearly a good deal, and they do so. One of these BP should go the US; owing to a bug, it does not. One build point will be stuck someplace and never used.

The Italians get four resources and an oil. Burning an oil is worth a full BP, and is worth it. 3 BP.

The Chinese have seven resources. They are not spending their only saved oil, thank you very much. 5 BP.

The US has extra resources. Run all factories, get 10 BP, save an oil. 10 BP (should be 11).

The Russians don't have nearly enough resources, but their production multiplier is so pitiful that saving an oil does not cost them any production. 6 + 2 German = 8 BP.

The French have only one saved oil, and need a oil to reorganize, so no oil will be spent in production. (This was a mistake; it turns out they did not need to spend an oil, if they left some ships flipped. Oh well.) 4 BP.

The British are, um, interesting. There is a bug in the Convoy routing. It should be possible to get one more French BP, at the expense of one CW saved oil. I will live with not getting it. The British leave one factory not in production (at no BP cost) to save an oil. 11 BP.

See the screenshot (taken after the end of the turn) for the British saved oil and an overview of convoy routing

[Courtenay]

Having calculated build points, here is what the Axis built:

German: Guderian, repair Scharnhorst, INF; saved 2 BP
The Germans managed to pick their worst INF unit, a 5-3.

I have no idea how much the Germans should spend on their navy; about 10% sounds right. (Historically, they built over 30 submarine units, although a fair number were never completed.) Here is a tentative plan for the next few turns:

N/D 39: 15+2: ARM, 2xINF, PI, LND-2; saved 1 BP
J/F 40: 20+1: 3xINF, 2xPI, LND-2, FI-2, 2xSUB
M/A 40: 21+1: INF, PI, LND-2, 2xFI-2
(The Germans _always_ build an INF. Its their religion ).

Italy: Nothing. Save 3 build points.

Japan: INF, 2xMIL, NAV-2, save 1 BP, 1 Bug BP. The Japanese are hoping for the 3 pt ground attack NAV.

And they got it. They got their best (Tokyo) and worst (Taihoku) MILs, and a medium INF (5-4)

[Courtenay]

And now the Allied builds:

CW:
ARM, complete Formidable, AMPH. Nothing saved.
7-6 ARM, 4-3 AMPH. The British scrapped all but one of the 4-2 AMPHS.

Why an AMPH? Because without it doesn't matter how strong the British Army is, the Germans can ignore it except where they are actually fighting it. Give the British an AMPH, and all of a sudden the Germans have to worry about garrisoning all kinds of places. A British invasion of Europe in 1941 is ridiculous, but raids are certainly possible. This one unit can cause a tremendous divesion of German stength. Of course, the only active Allied AMPH is the biggest target in the game. (If the British do make a raid, they have to make sure that they can evacuate whatever they attacked with. "Wars are not won by evacuations", but the lack of one can lose one.

Here is a tentative CW plan for the next couple of turns:

N/D 39: 11 PI, MOT, CV, CVP-0 Save 3
J/F 39: 15+3 2xFI-2, MOT, Alexander, PI, complete Victorius

FR:
S/O 39: 4 MIL, Save 2 BP.
The French get the Marseille Militia.

USSR: ARM, GAR. nothing saved.
7-6 ARM, 3-1 GAR

US: start Hornet Save 8 BP (Should be 9)
(Hornet is the only CV in pool.)

At this point I discover that the a bug has given the US eight extra pilots. I will not use these, except to correct for the effect of other bugs.

And I found another bug. One US saved build point has vanished. Evidently there is a problem with stacking build points.

[Courtenay]

Here are the reinforcements for N/D 39.

The most significant, besides the O-chit, is the

Italian bomber; that has the possibility to do significant damage in a surprise impulse.The British appreaciate the Swordfish, and the 4-2 artillery peace could be very good in an O-chit impulse, as it can be doubled in a land impulses bombardment, and thus has a 64% of flipping any unit it shoots at.

The US gets the USS Houston, Helena, and St. Louis. The Houston is a CA, the other two are CLs. Helena and St. Louis are both better ships than the Houston, both in the game and inreal life. US CLs are good. I think these two were the two best CLs ever built. The only problem is that CLiF adds a large number of units to be built but doesn't give the US any build points to build them. The US was the only country to actually build cruisers during the war. In the game, I don't see how the US can afford to.

[Courtenay]

The British pull their LND-2 from the map. One carrier gets a plane, but there are only two size 1 CVPs available, and the British have three size one carriers. Next turn some size two planes turn into size one, and all carriers will have a plane.

I break my own house rule, and pull a Jap CVP from the map. Some air unit in China will fly to Japan to replace it. If I had remembered that you have to be in a city in your home country to pull up air units, I would not have had to do this.

[Courtenay]

Germans roll 7 for initiative, the Allies six. German win, elect to go second.

N/D 39 Allied 1: Weather: 8 + 1 B, Sn, St, F, St, F.

Fr, Br naval, Ch land, US & USSR combined.

The French and the British move out to protect the convoy lanes. The Queens take the South African territorial from Gibraltar to Liverpool. The French forget to move their TRS; they aren't really sure what to do with it. The British have very definately not forgotten their TRSs; they just don't want to move them this impulse.

Every German factory within range of the Allies is protected by a fighter; strat bombing does not seem advisable. The British think that will change, as the German air force will actually start doing something.

The Russians rail a garrison into Brest Litovsk; they are working to make sure a German DOW is impossible. The US rails a division from the west coast to the east, because they can.

The Russians work to get units near Eastern Poland. The Chinese shift units to prevent Yamamoto oozing towards Henyang. This weakens the central sector, but the Chinese have to be weak most places.

The British transport plane reorganizes the Queens.

It was not an impulse where much happened, although convoy escort management takes a fairly long time.

[Courtenay]

N/D 39 Axis 3:

The Germans declare war on Denmark. Incredibly, the US is annoyed, rolling a 3. This adds a 2 chit to the US pool! I have just discovered a disadvantage of MWiF as opposed to the tabletop version: When one is annoyed at one's dice, one can not pick them up and hurl them someplace satisfying. (Or, if not "can not", it would at least be a really, really, bad idea.) There have been rolls of .2, .1, .3, and .3, which I make to be a 0.18% chance. Also, every single weather roll has been bad. I wonder just how bad can things get for the Axis? (Of course I once was in the same room as someone who had to roll one non-one on eight six-sided die to kill something in a game of Titan. He rolled eight ones.)

The shell shocked Germans pick a Land, as do the Japanese. The Italians pick a combined.

[markb50k]

Love the AAR. Thanks for doing this

[Courtenay]

Forgot to give the trades:

US to China: One resource
US to CW: 2 oil. (This will increase in future turns.)
CW to France: 5 resources
France to CW: 2 build points
CW to China: 1 oil

Getting the CW convoys to work efficiently with these deals took some work. You have to be very explicit about what is going where. (Cyprus, South African/Rhodesian, and British Guyana to France.) You also have to state a lot of the transport routes explicitly. However, I finally got everything working the way I wanted it too.

[Courtenay]

N/D 39 Axis 4:

The Italians move a transport back to Genoa. The Japanese pick up the Seoul and Formosan MIL and leave them in the China Sea, while a speed four transport departs Haiphong, picks up the Tokyo Militia, and ends up in the South China Sea. I had to stop the game and go to the interactive tutorial to figure out how to do that last move.

The Germans attempt a strat bombing of Coventry, while the Japanese make a try for Chungking. (Both countries use their NAVs.) The Germans roll a 10, but there is only one factory in Coventry, so they only get one point; the Japanese roll a 3 and miss.

The Germans invade and overrun all of Denmark. A 6-4 elite unit disorganizes taking Frederikshavn, a 2-6 Assault gun XX gains control of the rest North Jutlandic Island, and a 4-4 INF grabs the rest of the west coast of Jutland. The point of all that was to prevent the allies from shifting Gort over to Denmark. The Germans don't think it likely that the Allies would do that, but why risk it? Aside from Denmark, the Germans move west as fast as they can. (Except for the border garrison, of course.) They should get their invasion force in position for a M/A attack, but if there are two short turns, there won't be any time for silliness like naval moves.

The Japanese move up for the final assault on Chengchow, and off load the Tokyo militia in Canton. The assault on Chengchow easily destroys the 4-1 GAR, (+16, DR 14), but incredibly, the die roll for taking the city was a one. Since I am playing with extra Chinese cities, there was only a 20% chance of a chit moving. Right now the probability of the US having this many chits in the pool is .12%. If I were playing face to face, I would start talking about resigning now. I wouldn't resign, but I would start talking about it. Since I am playing both sides, what is bad for one is good for the other, but it is not very interesting if the dice go completely one way. Is my strategy for each side any good? How can I find out if one side gets all the die rolls?

[Courtenay]

N/D 39 Allied 7. Weather roll 2, goes to 4. R, R, F, F, F, F, imp adv 2, WR +0
Finally a low weather roll. However, the weather had been so bad that this is still rain in the Northern Temperate.

CW: combined; Fr & Ch land; US & USSR combined.

The British take the 5-2 London white print MIL and transport it next to Malta. The Queens sail south, back to South Africa.The CW rails the South Africans to Harwich, to defend against a possible parachute invasion. That unit will be there for most of the game. The Russians rail Zhukov to south of Leningrad. The French rail the Lyons and Marseille MIL to the front line.

In land movement, the French try and get their line organized. Both HQs move out of the range of the Italian bomber. The inability to switch units in fully stacked hexes is very annoying. The Chinese, not sure if they will get another impulse, flip the Chungking MIL moving through mountains. The Allies really don't expect to get two more impulses, so moving the unit now makes sense.

End of turn roll 6, turn continues.

P.S. Forgot to mention that the German 4-2 Artillery unit bombarded Metz in the German impulse, because, why not? It did not hit anything.

[Courtenay]

N/D 39 Axis 9:

Ge and Ja Land, Italy combined.

Italians get a transport out of Libya.

Germans try strat bombing Metz and Japanese try Sian. Metz is hit, Sian missed.

Japanese rail Umezu to central front, along with 5-5 MOT.

The Italians shuffle some units around. A MECH and a MOT are stacked with two TRSs in Genoa. Germans continue to head west. Japanese start to adopt a policy of oozing around the Chinese. A MIL coming off of Hainan threatens to isolate the Peking MIL.
The western front is a picture of units halfway to where they want to go. Chinese front below.

Turn ended on a three.

[Courtenay]

Forgot to give the trades:

US to China: One resource
US to CW: 2 oil. (This will increase in future turns.)
CW to France: 5 resources
France to CW: 2 build points
CW to China: 1 oil

Getting the CW convoys to work efficiently with these deals took some work. You have to be very explicit about what is going where. (Cyprus, South African/Rhodesian, and British Guyana to France.) You also have to state a lot of the transport routes explicitly. However, I finally got everything working the way I wanted it too.

[Courtenay]

The Italians move a transport back to Genoa. The Japanese pick up the Seoul and Formosan MIL and leave them in the China Sea, while a speed four transport departs Haiphong, picks up the Tokyo Militia, and ends up in the South China Sea. I had to stop the game and go to the interactive tutorial to figure out how to do that last move.

The Germans attempt a strat bombing of Coventry, while the Japanese make a try for Chungking. (Both countries use their NAVs.) The Germans roll a 10, but there is only one factory in Coventry, so they only get one point; the Japanese roll a 3 and miss.

The Germans invade and overrun all of Denmark. A 6-4 elite unit disorganizes taking Frederikshavn, a 2-6 Assault gun XX gains control of the rest of North Jutlandic Island, and a 4-4 INF grabs the rest of the west coast of Jutland. The point of all that was to prevent the allies from shifting Gort over to Denmark. The Germans don't think it likely that the Allies would do that, but why risk it? Aside from Denmark, the Germans move west as fast as they can. (Except for the border garrison, of course.) They should get their invasion force in position for a M/A attack, but if there are two short turns, there won't be any time for silliness like naval moves.

The Japanese move up for the final assault on Chengchow, and off load the Tokyo militia in Canton. The assault on Chengchow easily destroys the 4-1 GAR, (+16, DR 14), but incredibly, the die roll for taking the city was a one. Since I am playing with extra Chinese cities, there was only a 20% chance of a chit moving. Right now the probalility of the US having this many chits in the pool is .12%. If I were playing face to face, I would start talking about resigning now. I wouldn't resign, but I would start talking about it. Since I am playing both sides, what is bad for one is good for the other, but it is not very interesting if the dice go completely one way. Is my strategy for the each side any good? How can I find out if one side gets all the die rolls?

[Courtenay]

N/D 39 Allied 7. Weather roll 2, goes to 4. R, R, F, F, F, F, imp adv 2, WR +0
Finally a low weather roll. However, the weather had been so bad that this is still rain in the Northern Temperate.

CW: combined; Fr & Ch land; US & USSR combined.

The British transport the 5-2 London white print MIL next to Malta. The Queens sail south, back to South Africa, and pick up the other territorial. The CW rails the South Africans to Harwich, to defend against a possible parachute invasion. That unit will sit there for most of the game. The Russians rail Zhukov to south of Leningrad. The French rail the Lyons and Marseille MIL to the front line.

In land movement, the French try and get their line organized. Both HQs move out of the range of the Italian bomber. The inability to switch units in fully stacked hexes is very annoying. The Chinese, not sure if they will get another impulse, flip the Chungking MIL moving through mountains. The Allies really don't expect to get two more impulses, so moving the unit now makes sense. The London militia offloads onto Malta.

End of turn roll 6, turn continues.

P.S. Forgot to mention that the German 4-2 Artillery unit bombarded Metz in the German impulse, because, why not? It did not hit anything.

[Courtenay]

N/D 39 Axis 9:

Ge and Ja Land, Italy combined.

Italians get a transport out of Libya.

Germans try strat bombing Metz and Japanese try Sian. Metz is hit, Sian missed.

Japanese rail Umezu to central front, along with 5-5 MOT.

The Italians shuffle some units around. A MECH and a MOT are stacked with two TRSs in Genoa. Germans continue to head west. Japanese start to adopt a policy of oozing around the Chinese. A MIL comes of Formosa, threatens to isolate Peking MIL.

Not bothering with a screen shot of western front; it is a picture of units halfway to where they want to go. Chinese front below.

Turn ended on a three.

I forgot to mention the Danish setup. MWiF does not enforce the rule that one half of a country's units must set up in its home country, so I enforced it. The two Danish SCSs and one convoy point (2.5 units) set up in Frederikshavn, while the other 5 CPs (also 2.5 units) set up in Reykjavik. When the Germans took Frederikshavn, the Peder Skram was destroyed. The other cruiser and the convoy point escaped.

[Courtenay]

No partisans.

Neutrality pact:
Germans put a 1 chit in defense pool and a 3 in offense. Russians put a 1 in defense.

The US puts a 3 into the Japanese entry pool. That three promptly moves to the tension pool when the US picks gift of destroyers, and has to move a chit as a result.

Ge It: Entry 21, Tension 7. Ja: Entry 11 Tension 9.

The game is delayed when I bungle the "Stay at Sea" step. Almost everything works, but the German convoys in the Baltic want to sail home. I have to redo the whole step.

The game is delayed even more when I bungle the reorganization step. Neither the Americans nor the French get reorganized. I thought I did them, but no. I leave the Americans the way they are, as it won't make any difference, but have to back up to redo the French. At least that allowed me to correct a mistake in the German production. (I had an ARM where I meant to have a MECH.)

If I ever play MWIF with a human opponent, I hope that he will be forgiving of my mechanical errors. I will certainly be forgiving of his.