Wrangling Loki - Mind_Messing (J) vs Lokasenna (A)

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Interesting strike on Palembang. Fires can do a lot, let me tell you!!

If it's just the refineries that is great. You have enough of those. The oil points I'd fix though. Make sure to turn off repairs to Manpower and refineries globally in case of more strikes.

Tell me about it! A dozen planes at 1000 feet causing chaos. The refineires were damaged to the tune of 200 points, the oil at about 140. Significant, but not critical. I whined a little to Lokasenna about the image of poor urban planning in that the population must live next to the oil wells and refineries, but he gave a fair explaination about the resulting damage to infrastructure instead, which seems fair enough.

There have been no repairs in the forward areas, excepting a couple of points damage to Tarakan and Balikipan. Miri's oil is being repaired, as is Brunei, but the focus at present is getting the fuel out of those bases. The trickle of fuel that there is flowing is earmarked for fleet operations, though a steady drip is being pushed through Cam Rhan Bay.

ORIGINAL: Miller

ORIGINAL: obvert

Interesting strike on Palembang. Fires can do a lot, let me tell you!!

If it's just the refineries that is great. You have enough of those. The oil points I'd fix though. Make sure to turn off repairs to Manpower and refineries globally in case of more strikes.

I know this is a no HR game, but strat bombing of Palambang this early in the game is not really an ideal scenario for either side. The Allies can mass 100+ 2E and 4E bombers in northern Java by Jan 42...and give them enough escorts and they will get through and can inflict mortal damage to the oil and refineries. That's why I didn't do that in my game against MM.

My mantra for this game has been "I'm going to do X. What would Miller do to make things impossibly difficult?", so it's fairly safe to say the psychological impact hasn't been totally detrimental! I've been a great deal more methodical.

To be fair, I made some key mistakes invading Palambang.

1 - Too early. Singkawang is a good springboard, but it's just too far away for decent LRCAP and I only got away clean because Lokasenna was building his redoubt at Koepang. If he'd instead sent those units to Palambang, I'd have been bloodied rather severely.

2 - Too little. I'd had the foresight to add AA to the invasion force, but not nearly enough to make it a true deterent. In future, the first wave will have as much AA units attached as is pratically possible. Ditto with engineers, which brings me to my next point...

3 - Don't hinge your air defence of Palambang on the same airstrip you've been bombing for the past two weeks. Pretty self-explaintory. If I'd acutally thought this one out, I'd have realized that I'd just wrecked the base that I was going to need. Bomb the ports next time to keep the forts down. Drop bombs on the airstrip by all means, but don't utterly wreck it.

Good to have you following, Miller! Perhaps some sorely needed evidence that I can actually reach beyond the first couple of months!

[obvert]

My opponent in my 2nd game bombed Palembang with all of the Dutch, but because I was able to bring in AS and big fighter groups right away, it was stopped. I think the Japanese player simply needs to be ready for it. If they aren't, well, it's a fair play.

[Miller]

If he is hell bent on destroying Palembang's industry so early in the game there is very little you can do to stop it. Even if you send all your Zero sqds there, if he has enough escorts in tow with his bombers then they will get through and kill off the vast majority of your oil by the end of January. AA is too weak to do much damage unless he flies at very low altitude. The oil you capture elsewhere will be enough to keep your industry going to perhaps early/mid 43, but after that you are going to have to start shutting things down in the home islands.

And its never too early to capture Palembang, in fact if you leave it too long and the Allies get some sizeable ground units in place in becomes almost impossible to capture in a stock game due to the fact in produces tons of supply (Search the site for references to "Fortress Palembang"). Of course taking it asap leads to the problem you are having now, hence why most games have a HR prohibiting strat bombing of it, at least until after a certain time. Lets see what happens in your game....

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Miller

ORIGINAL: obvert

Interesting strike on Palembang. Fires can do a lot, let me tell you!!

If it's just the refineries that is great. You have enough of those. The oil points I'd fix though. Make sure to turn off repairs to Manpower and refineries globally in case of more strikes.

I know this is a no HR game, but strat bombing of Palambang this early in the game is not really an ideal scenario for either side. The Allies can mass 100+ 2E and 4E bombers in northern Java by Jan 42...and give them enough escorts and they will get through and can inflict mortal damage to the oil and refineries and pretty much ruin the game longterm. That's why I didn't try that in my game against MM.

Then it would seem to behoove Japan to not let the Allies have northern Java, no? Taking PBang early is a choice, not a mandatory. It's also VERY hard to get 100 bombers anywhere in January 1942. A lot of what you might gather are Dutch Hefalumps. They're no B-17.

I've done oil bombing in the early war probably as much as anybody. With 30 "real" 4Es down low I have gotten 15-20 pure Oil hits. Firebombing is a crapshoot. You might kill refineries, you might not. And regardless of the ability of Japan to get fighters in on Day One they for sure can get AA in there that day. Firebombing from 10k or higher is much less effective in January 1942. A lot of those pilots are lucky to have 50 G. Bombing skill.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: obvert

My opponent in my 2nd game bombed Palembang with all of the Dutch, but because I was able to bring in AS and big fighter groups right away, it was stopped. I think the Japanese player simply needs to be ready for it. If they aren't, well, it's a fair play.

In this case, I was semi-prepared, it could have been much worse.

ORIGINAL: Miller
And its never too early to capture Palembang, in fact if you leave it too long and the Allies get some sizeable ground units in place in becomes almost impossible to capture in a stock game due to the fact in produces tons of supply (Search the site for references to "Fortress Palembang"). Of course taking it asap leads to the problem you are having now, hence why most games have a HR prohibiting strat bombing of it, at least until after a certain time. Lets see what happens in your game....

It does seem a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" type problem. Only way around it that I can see is securing the island directly east of Palambang (Billington? something like that) and build those bases up to support the base.

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Miller

ORIGINAL: obvert

Interesting strike on Palembang. Fires can do a lot, let me tell you!!

If it's just the refineries that is great. You have enough of those. The oil points I'd fix though. Make sure to turn off repairs to Manpower and refineries globally in case of more strikes.

I know this is a no HR game, but strat bombing of Palambang this early in the game is not really an ideal scenario for either side. The Allies can mass 100+ 2E and 4E bombers in northern Java by Jan 42...and give them enough escorts and they will get through and can inflict mortal damage to the oil and refineries and pretty much ruin the game longterm. That's why I didn't try that in my game against MM.

Then it would seem to behoove Japan to not let the Allies have northern Java, no? Taking PBang early is a choice, not a mandatory. It's also VERY hard to get 100 bombers anywhere in January 1942. A lot of what you might gather are Dutch Hefalumps. They're no B-17.

I've done oil bombing in the early war probably as much as anybody. With 30 "real" 4Es down low I have gotten 15-20 pure Oil hits. Firebombing is a crapshoot. You might kill refineries, you might not. And regardless of the ability of Japan to get fighters in on Day One they for sure can get AA in there that day. Firebombing from 10k or higher is much less effective in January 1942. A lot of those pilots are lucky to have 50 G. Bombing skill.

Lokasenna's results were from bombers at 1k, so enough AA would have made that unsustainable for more than two or three turns.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Lokasenna's results were from bombers at 1k, so enough AA would have made that unsustainable for more than two or three turns.

I'm playing him in my second game. He's Japan, Scen 2, no HRs.

Scen 2 gives Japan some time for sure, but PBang has to be taken. We are in the first week of May and it is the last major base he doesn't have. He very carefully isolated it from my 4Es in a systematic way. I did a modified Fortress PBang with not enough Singers refugees, but I did get Forts up to 5.5 before he came up the river. As soon as LCUs are in the hex primary production stops and you have some time to work on the fort's supply levels.

PBang can get air cover from multiple directions. Padang can be the route in and fighters can easily LRCAP from there. Oosthaven is a good fighter base easily supplied. Padang-to-Lahat works. Or a para drop on Djambi and AV air-transported in. It can be done so PBang has fighters overhead the instant it falls. It takes more than a week, but not three months.

The damage numbers you cite along with the number of aircraft is stunning to me. I am Oil bombing in Borneo now (Tarakan has a shred of a garrison yet) with 6-9 2Es against light CAP and I'm lucky to get 2-3 Oil points of damage per strike. Mostly I get none. At 1000-4000 feet in daylight. Damage clearly is higher in dense industrial areas, and PBang is the densest there is, but Balikpapan is no slouch either. These are all Dutch 2Es.

He has been firebombing Chungking for three weeks with hundreds of IJA 1- and 2-E bombers. In that time, with bomber sorties well into the thousands, he's destroyed about 120 HI, about 80 LI, and about 60 Resources. Fire levels have been over 40,000 and burn for about 3 days after a raid day.

If you lost hundreds of petroleum points to a small, low strike you got some bad rolls there. As an Allied player I certainly wouldn't plan for those kinds of results.

[mind_messing]

The damage numbers you cite along with the number of aircraft is stunning to me. I am Oil bombing in Borneo now (Tarakan has a shred of a garrison yet) with 6-9 2Es against light CAP and I'm lucky to get 2-3 Oil points of damage per strike. Mostly I get none. At 1000-4000 feet in daylight. Damage clearly is higher in dense industrial areas, and PBang is the densest there is, but Balikpapan is no slouch either. These are all Dutch 2Es.

He has been firebombing Chungking for three weeks with hundreds of IJA 1- and 2-E bombers. In that time, with bomber sorties well into the thousands, he's destroyed about 120 HI, about 80 LI, and about 60 Resources. Fire levels have been over 40,000 and burn for about 3 days after a raid day.

If you lost hundreds of petroleum points to a small, low strike you got some bad rolls there. As an Allied player I certainly wouldn't plan for those kinds of results.

A half-dozen B-17s and about the same number of Blenheims. Pretty impressive, but very likely bad luck on the die roles. Fires never got more than 2000.

It seems to me if you want to destroy industry, fires are the way to go. Don't bomb the oil directly, bomb the manpower on it.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

It seems to me if you want to destroy industry, fires are the way to go. Don't bomb the oil directly, bomb the manpower on it.

I have always bombed Oil directly since many of those bases also have Resources and I don't want to waste Fire effort on that. Japan is floating in Resources. But your results will make me re-look at Borneo. I don't think Miri has any Manpower, but I don't recall the others.

[Miller]

Yep, bombing manpower is usually the way to go and let the fires do the rest. The fact that Lokasana has made sure to capture all bases in bombing range of Palembang just goes to show he is well aware of the risks of Allied strat attacks and their potential effect.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Miller

Yep, bombing manpower is usually the way to go and let the fires do the rest. The fact that Lokasana has made sure to capture all bases in bombing range of Palembang just goes to show he is well aware of the risks of Allied strat attacks and their potential effect.

Thus, there is a defense against having PBang destroyed, and without HRs. It's just harder than an HR.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

It seems to me if you want to destroy industry, fires are the way to go. Don't bomb the oil directly, bomb the manpower on it.

I have always bombed Oil directly since many of those bases also have Resources and I don't want to waste Fire effort on that. Japan is floating in Resources. But your results will make me re-look at Borneo. I don't think Miri has any Manpower, but I don't recall the others.

Adding after looking at map:

Yeah, the major oil bases other than Soerbaja and PBang don't have Manpower, so firebombing is out. I've never bombed PBang as I still have it in both games. In Lokasenna's game I'm pushed back out of range of Soerbaja. He has northern Oz.

Also I misremembered the map. I didn't mean Padang to PBang or Padang-to-Lahat. I meant Benkoelen. Some of that route is on rails.

[pontiouspilot]

Personally I don't find bombing oil this early gamey...to me it is simply performing the scorched earth Dutch engineers should have done anyway!

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: pontiouspilot

Personally I don't find bombing oil this early gamey...to me it is simply performing the scorched earth Dutch engineers should have done anyway!

I agree. Given any amount of time the Allies should be able to reduce Palembang to a smoking ruin before the Japanese ever had a change to capture the oil fields.

But it is not in the game and would likely result in very few wins for the Japanese so I guess it is a game balance issue.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: pontiouspilot

Personally I don't find bombing oil this early gamey...to me it is simply performing the scorched earth Dutch engineers should have done anyway!

It goes against the historical mindset of the ABDA forces and the whole "Malay Barrier" plan. The plan was for them to stop the Japanese advance cold, not provide a rear-guard for scorched earth.

Once Japan takes the hex, however, it's open season. I just found it very, very cold to firebomb citizens who had been under Dutch rule the day prior in order to harm the oil production.

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

ORIGINAL: pontiouspilota

Personally I don't find bombing oil this early gamey...to me it is simply performing the scorched earth Dutch engineers should have done anyway!

I agree. Given any amount of time the Allies should be able to reduce Palembang to a smoking ruin before the Japanese ever had a change to capture the oil fields.

But it is not in the game and would likely result in very few wins for the Japanese so I guess it is a game balance issue.

Few wins? More like none. If the Allies could destroy the most economically critical hex in the first fortnight of gameplay, there'd be no point fighting the war.

[mind_messing]

Jan 27th, 1942

North Pacific

The Mini-KB is further rumbled by a lone freighter, while is promptly sunk. They'll turn north now to whack Adak, before moving east to meet the oiler and cover the Adak invasion force.

A couple of American task-forces are in-theater, and should hopfully be sunk tomorrow.

Central Pacific

Our AMC raider jumps the convoy, finding a big xAP north-east of Pago Pago escorted by a patrol boat. A couple of shells are fired over two battles that leaves the American xAP burning. We have another AMC and a submarine vectoring in. The enemy ship is carrying troops, likely a Marine Defence Battalion bound for Pago Pago.

South-West Pacific

Port Moresby is nearing a level four airstrip. After this, we'll focus on forts. The remaining fraction of the 4th Division is to be dropped off at the base to provide the garrison for the time being. We'll probably swap the 4th Division for a Mixed Brigade in the near future, and use the 4th for the regions reaction force.

Eastern DEI

The oil beings to flow, as the British disapear. The 65th Brigade looks set to seize Koepang tomorrow, while a regiment is set to invade Denpasser within the next few days to establish a big airbase in easy sweep range of Java.

Koepang is becoming critical, as we need to get a look at Darwin. The HQ has been changed to ABDA, so it may be the last bastion for the British and Dutch aircraft in the DEI.

Western DEI

Fires at Palambang die down to two digits as more air support comes ashore. We've plenty of fighters here now, and recon and bomber units have been moved in. Batavia only reports bombers in the base, so we'll run a risky unescorted raid to hit the cities airstrip and port.

Malaya

Everything that the IJAAF has that can carry a bomb will attack Singapore tomorrow as the IJA units on the ground attack again. The British are on their knees, so hopefully they can carry the day tomorrow and allow the units to move on to more important targets.

Minesweepers are one day out from the base, and transport shipping another day out, with even more shipping a week out. The hope is a quick landing on Java in mid-Febuary and Java cleared by March.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

ORIGINAL: pontiouspilot

Personally I don't find bombing oil this early gamey...to me it is simply performing the scorched earth Dutch engineers should have done anyway!

I agree. Given any amount of time the Allies should be able to reduce Palembang to a smoking ruin before the Japanese ever had a change to capture the oil fields.

But it is not in the game and would likely result in very few wins for the Japanese so I guess it is a game balance issue.

It's not a game balance issue. It's a play issue. It is entirely possible for the Japan player to ensure PBang is not firebombed in the first months of the game. It's a matter of choices and tactics.

It seems some Japan players have an attitude that they should have free reign to build a defense and capture what they need to play on at least until the bonus ends. After April 1 the game is on IOW. No, the game is on starting on 12/7/41. I offered four ways to keep PBang safe. There are more than that. But none of them involve getting PBang 100% safely in the first two weeks. If a Japan player does that--and it's certainly possible--they have to accept the risk of retaliation.

[Miller]

How is the air war over Singapore going? Has he sent the AVG or other fighter sqds there?

[Miller]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

ORIGINAL: pontiouspilot

Personally I don't find bombing oil this early gamey...to me it is simply performing the scorched earth Dutch engineers should have done anyway!

I agree. Given any amount of time the Allies should be able to reduce Palembang to a smoking ruin before the Japanese ever had a change to capture the oil fields.

But it is not in the game and would likely result in very few wins for the Japanese so I guess it is a game balance issue.

It's not a game balance issue. It's a play issue. It is entirely possible for the Japan player to ensure PBang is not firebombed in the first months of the game. It's a matter of choices and tactics.

It seems some Japan players have an attitude that they should have free reign to build a defense and capture what they need to play on at least until the bonus ends. After April 1 the game is on IOW. No, the game is on starting on 12/7/41. I offered four ways to keep PBang safe. There are more than that. But none of them involve getting PBang 100% safely in the first two weeks. If a Japan player does that--and it's certainly possible--they have to accept the risk of retaliation.

Not really. The Allies ability to strike back and inflict losses earlier than in the real war is more than balanced out by the Japs ability to put up a much tougher fight after 1942 than they did. My point is that if the Allies follow the course of action of Lokasenna and succeed then very few games will go past the end of 1942. Sad but true...

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

ORIGINAL: pontiouspilot

Personally I don't find bombing oil this early gamey...to me it is simply performing the scorched earth Dutch engineers should have done anyway!

I agree. Given any amount of time the Allies should be able to reduce Palembang to a smoking ruin before the Japanese ever had a change to capture the oil fields.

But it is not in the game and would likely result in very few wins for the Japanese so I guess it is a game balance issue.

It's not a game balance issue. It's a play issue. It is entirely possible for the Japan player to ensure PBang is not firebombed in the first months of the game. It's a matter of choices and tactics.

It seems some Japan players have an attitude that they should have free reign to build a defense and capture what they need to play on at least until the bonus ends. After April 1 the game is on IOW. No, the game is on starting on 12/7/41. I offered four ways to keep PBang safe. There are more than that. But none of them involve getting PBang 100% safely in the first two weeks. If a Japan player does that--and it's certainly possible--they have to accept the risk of retaliation.

The Palambang debate is interesting in that there's no clear cut solution that solves everything. If Japan takes extra time to isolate Palambang before capture, it will lose the time to take advantage of the amphib bonus elsewhere. The critical point is that Japan needs Palambang.

From my point of view, I ran an acceptable risk, but made the critical mistake in not letting the Dutch engineers repair the airstrip for me before I landed. If I had done that, chances are the Allied bombing raids would have been so disrupted as to have little effect, and if I'd sent more AA, they'd have endured some unsustainable losses.

That said, the results gained from the numbers involved under the circumstances seemed quite out of whack to me.

ORIGINAL: Miller

How is the air war over Singapore going? Has he sent the AVG or other fighter sqds there?

Singapore has been well-suppressed since the end of January, there were a few early sweeps that met resistance, but the bulk of the British fighters were sent to Java and Koepang. I suspect the bulk have either escaped to Burma or been sent to Darwin.

The AVG remained in Burma till late December, where I was quite happy to let them stay. The only engagement with the AVG was between some Oscar Ia's and the early Tojo's that ended up with a slight victory for the IJAAF.

On the whole, few sweeps have really been contested. The big frontline Oscar Ic and Zero units are used for little else bar sweeping (and the occasional LRCAP), while CAP and escort duties are filled with the smaller units.

Hell, OPS losses are as big a killer as Allied CAP has been. That's no suprise, considering that I bounce my Zero groups around constantly to provide overwhelming local superiority (which, I think, has been the key difference between our games), though they're watched closely so that fatigue doesn't go above twenty.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Miller

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Wargmr





I agree. Given any amount of time the Allies should be able to reduce Palembang to a smoking ruin before the Japanese ever had a change to capture the oil fields.

But it is not in the game and would likely result in very few wins for the Japanese so I guess it is a game balance issue.

It's not a game balance issue. It's a play issue. It is entirely possible for the Japan player to ensure PBang is not firebombed in the first months of the game. It's a matter of choices and tactics.

It seems some Japan players have an attitude that they should have free reign to build a defense and capture what they need to play on at least until the bonus ends. After April 1 the game is on IOW. No, the game is on starting on 12/7/41. I offered four ways to keep PBang safe. There are more than that. But none of them involve getting PBang 100% safely in the first two weeks. If a Japan player does that--and it's certainly possible--they have to accept the risk of retaliation.

Not really. The Allies ability to strike back and inflict losses earlier than in the real war is more than balanced out by the Japs ability to put up a much tougher fight after 1942 than they did. My point is that if the Allies follow the course of action of Lokasenna and succeed then very few games will go past the end of 1942. Sad but true...

I'd have to side with the Bull on this one, surprisingly. [;)] Palembang wasn't taken in January 42, but in mid-Feb. If in the game the Japanese player decides to do that, it his responsibility to defend it from the Allies forces in the area. Even the small contingent of troops at Palembang in the war recaptured the Pladjoe refinery and set the oil stores ablaze before succumbing to counters by the Japanese para-troopers.

We know the Japanese need it to play through the game to 45. We know it has to be taken early but defended. The Japanese have quite a few decisions that they can make that counter history, and it's up to the Allies to counter them as best they can, I feel. It's up to the Japanese player to make sure they don't succeed in destroying the oil. So maybe that makes it harder for fancy second tier invasions of OZ or India or deep So Pac. Why not?