Ukraine 2014

[tommo8993]

Maybe you should make scenarios based on the news as it happens. Would be cool if you did that regularly.

[RoryAndersonCDT]

I'm not very good at making scenarios; check the other scenarios I've made if you don't believe me. [:)] I'd love to collaborate on a scenario with someone (or a group of people); and provide data and imports.

Also I need to mention I've used some of Rudd's and Blh's imports in the above attached scenario. Really high quality imports!

Here are three imports; one for the Ukrainian Navy; one for the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and one for civilian traffic in the black sea as of yesterday http://www.marinetraffic.com/. (Roughly done)

[RoryAndersonCDT]

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/20 ... 94624.html

A group of armed men in military clothes occupied Simferopol airport in Crimea early on Friday, Interfax Ukraine news agency citing eyewitnesses.

About 50 gunmen arrived at the airport in three lorries that did not have registration numbers, Interfax Ukraine reported.

The men have first surrounded the terminal of domestic flights, but later moved to other parts of the airport as well.

The agency reports that the aim of the group is unclear.

http://www.businessinsider.com/armed-me ... mea-2014-2

SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine (AP) — A report says dozens of armed men in military uniforms have seized an airport in Ukraine's strategic Crimea region.
Witnesses told the Interfax news agency that the 50 or so men were wearing the same gear early Friday as the ones who seized government buildings in the regional capital of Simferopol on Thursday and raised the Russian flag.

The report says the men with "Russian Navy ensigns" surrounded the Simferopol Airport's domestic flights terminal.

The report could not be immediately confirmed.

The events in the Crimea region have heightened tensions with neighboring Russia, which scrambled fighter jets to patrol borders.

Russia also has granted shelter to Ukraine's fugitive president, Viktor Yanukovych, after violent protests in Kiev.

Copyright (2014) Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Overview of airbases/airports/heliports in Crimea

[RoryAndersonCDT]

02.27 BREAKING 2000 ET: In Crimea-Sevastopol and Simferopol Airports Occupied by Unknown Military Force
http://johngaltfla.com/wordpress/2014/0 ... ary-force/

Simferopol, February 28 (Navigator, Victor Orlov) – Simferopol Airport captured by unknown armed men, presumably related to the seizure of government buildings and the Crimean parliament.

On this “Navigator” said a source in the Crimean police head office.

Subscribe to news “Navigator – Kiev” >>>

“Around one o’clock captured Simferopol Airport – the same people. With arms, strong, in the same clothes. The security chief said that his people were politely asked to leave, “- said the agency interlocutor.

It is noteworthy that the Crimean police still do not know who are the people who took the main administrative building of autonomy. “We only know that they speak fluent Russian, Caucasian or without Moscow accent,” – said the law enforcement.

Similar information about the capture of the airport “Belbek” in Sevastopol city portal reported “Civil Defense” . According to the publication, to occupy the airport here were involved 17 Urals and about 300 people in camouflage with a gun.

http://johngaltfla.com/wordpress/2014/0 ... ary-force/

UNIAN is reporting that approximately 6 military trucks full of armed soldiers are currently surrounding the Sevastapol International Airport. The source notes that “unknown armed people in uniform” also surrounded a guest residence normally reserved for senior officials. NBNews claims the soldiers to be Russian Black Sea Fleet personnel. Those on the scene were not able to identify the purpose of the soldiers, as they will not answer questions to the press.

Local news is reporting that in fact both Sevastopol and Simferopol airports are surrounded, the latter by militants at 1am local time.Interfax and Ukrainska Pravda confirmed these reports, and that approximately 150 armed unmarked soldiers are in the area, dropped off via 3 unmarked Kamaz transport trucks. The airport is still operational. They report that 25 supporters have a Russian naval flag. The soldiers speak with heavy Russian accents.

This news comes directly after armed insurgents occupied the Crimean parliament buildings in Simferopol under the Russian flag.

Right now it seems as though Simferopol International Airport, the Building of the Supreme Council of Crimea and Belbek Airport have been seized by unknown special forces.

204th Tactical Aviation Brigade is based out of Belbek Airport; which flies 39x MiG-29s.

[RoryAndersonCDT]

MiG-29s at Belbek Airport.

[RoryAndersonCDT]

Armed men patrol airport grounds in Ukraine's Crimea
http://my.chicagotribune.com/#section/- ... -79457248/

Armed men who took control of the airport in Ukraine's Crimean regional centre of Simferopol on Friday are patrolling the airport grounds but have not moved into the passenger terminal and appear to be allowing the airport to function normally.

A Reuters eyewitness at the scene said the men, dressed in full battle gear and carrying assault rifles and machine guns, were moving freely in an out of the control tower.

A man called Vladimir, who said he was a volunteer helping the group, said: "I'm with the People's Militia of Crimea. We're simple people, volunteers ... We're here at the airport to maintain order. We'll meet the planes with a nice smile - the airport is working as normal."

He added that though he and other volunteers supported the actions of the armed men they did not know where the group was from.

Crimea, the only Ukrainian region with an ethnic Russian majority, is the last big bastion of opposition to the new leadership in Kiev since pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovich was ousted at the weekend.

The region also provides a base for the Russian navy's Black Sea Fleet. Kiev's new rulers said any movement by Russian forces beyond the base's territory would be tantamount to aggression.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had assured him by telephone that Moscow would not intervene militarily in its neighbor.

"We believe that everybody now needs to take a step back and avoid any kind of provocations," Kerry said at a joint news conference with German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

"We want to see in the next days ahead that the choices Russia makes conform to this affirmation we received today."

The United States pledged its support for the new government in a call on Thursday by Vice President Joe Biden to Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk.

Yanukovich, who fled Kiev after scores of demonstrators were killed last week, was expected to hold a news conference in Russia on Friday. He has declared he is still Ukraine's president, but has lost support even in regions where the ethnic Ukrainian population mainly speaks Russian as he does.

Crimea, which was administered as part of Russia within the Soviet Union until it was transferred to Ukraine in 1954, is a more tendentious question. Separatism there has often flared up at times of tension between Moscow and Kiev.

A group of armed men in military uniforms seized the main regional airport in Simferopol, Crimea, Interfax news agency said early on Friday.

A day before, unidentified gunmen seized the Crimean parliament and raised a Russian flag. The gunmen issued no demands and police hardly seemed to treat the event as a major security incident.

Instead, they casually guarded the building while hundreds of pro-Russian demonstrators assembled, including elderly people who danced cheerfully to recordings of Soviet martial music.

The regional parliament even managed to hold a session inside the building on Thursday despite the siege, where it voted to stage a referendum on "sovereignty" for Crimea.

By the early hours of Friday, police guarding the building would not say what had happened to the gunmen or whether they were even still there. Russia's flag still flew from its roof and lights were on in the windows of its top floor.

Oleksander Turchinov, Ukraine's acting president, warned Russia not to move personnel beyond areas permitted by treaty for those using its naval base: "Any military movements, the more so if they are with weapons, beyond the boundaries of this territory will be seen by us as military aggression," he said.

Russia has repeatedly declared it will defend the interests of its citizens in Ukraine, and on Wednesday announced war games near the border involving 150,000 troops on high alert. Kerry said Lavrov told him the war games were pre-planned.

Although Moscow says it will not intervene by force, its rhetoric since the removal of its ally Yanukovich has echoed the runup to its invasion of Georgia in 2008, when it sent its troops to protect two self-declared independent regions and then recognized them as independent states.

Witness accounts suggest those who captured the Crimean parliament building in the early hours of Thursday were pro-Russian gunmen of some kind.

"We were building barricades in the night to protect parliament. Then this young Russian guy came up with a pistol ... we all lay down, some more ran up, there was some shooting and around 50 went in through the window," Leonid Khazanov, an ethnic Russian, told Reuters.

"I asked them what they wanted, and they said 'To make our own decisions, not to have Kiev telling us what to do'."

Ukraine's new interior minister, Arsen Avakov, said the attackers had automatic weapons and machine guns.

The regional prime minister said on Thursday he had spoken to the people by telephone, but they had not made any demands or said why they were there. They had promised to call him back but had not done so, he said.

With the siege apparently still under way, the regional parliament met in another part of the building and voted to hold its referendum on May 25, the day Ukraine plans to elect a new president to replace Yanukovich. The measure, if passed, would declare Crimea sovereign, with its relationship to the rest of Ukraine governed by treaty.

The pro-Russian crowd outside cheered the news.

"In three months we will have a chance to choose our future," said Yuri Lukashev, 58, a carpenter standing in a group of other ethnic Russian men outside the building late at night. "We're celebrating our victory. It's a chance for peace in Crimea, guaranteed by Russia."

However, elsewhere there was some anger at the invasion of the regional parliament and the flying of the Russian flag.

Alexander Vostruyev, 60, in a leather cap and white beard, said: "It's disgrace that the flag of a foreign country is flying on our parliament ... It's like a man coming home to find his wife in bed with another man."

[RoryAndersonCDT]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/ ... L120140228

Ukraine's interior minister condemns seizure of Crimea airports
Feb 28 (Reuters) - Ukraine's interior minister said on Friday Russian forces had taken control of two airports in the Crimea region and condemned them an armed invasion and occupation.

He said there had been no bloodshed or clashes when armed men he described as Russian naval forces took over a military airport near the port of Sevastopol where the Russian Black Sea fleet has a base.

Armed men he described as representing the Russian Federation had taken over Simferopol international airport without clashes.

"I consider what has happened to be an armed invasion and occupation in violation of all international agreements and norms," Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said on his Facebook page, describing it as an armed provocation and calling for talks.

[lowchi]

also interesting:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/ ... F220140227

NATO commander plays down tension with Russia over Ukraine
(Reuters) - NATO's top military commander played down tension with Russia over Ukraine on Thursday, saying the Western military alliance had made no plans to respond to any Russian intervention in Crimea and appealing for a peaceful resolution of the crisis.

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered 150,000 troops on Wednesday to be ready for war games near the border of the former Soviet republic once ruled from Moscow after pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich was toppled by protests over his rejection of closer ties with the European Union.

In addition, an armed group seized government buildings in Ukraine's ethnic Russian-majority region of Crimea on Thursday and raised the Russian flag.

"There just isn't any reason for us and Russia to compete over the future of Ukraine. I think that we both want the same thing which is a prosperous, stable, peaceful Ukraine," U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove said in an interview with Reuters and The Wall Street Journal.

"What we need to do now is just, in a calm way, work this out so that we understand what Russia is doing and how that affects other people in the region," said Breedlove, who is NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe and commander of U.S. forces in Europe.

Asked if he was concerned about the possibility of a Russian military intervention in Crimea, Breedlove said: "I think everybody might be concerned about that but right now that is not my primary concern."

The occupation of the buildings in Simferopol, Crimea was "a troubling situation", Breedlove said, adding: "We, like all the nations of NATO, want to see a peaceful resolution to all of the turmoil in Ukraine."

NO CONTINGENCY PLANS

Breedlove said neither the United States nor the 28-nation Western alliance had drawn up contingency plans for how to respond if Russian forces did move militarily in Crimea.

"Right now we are not planning contingencies on how to respond here. What we are doing is supporting the peaceful resolution of this business," Breedlove said.

NATO had also not moved military equipment due to tensions over Ukraine, he said. "No, no, we have taken no actions to this moment. We are doing what everyone else is doing which is monitoring. We are trying to get to a full understanding of exactly what has transpired," Breedlove said.

The United States sent two Navy ships to patrol the Black Sea during the Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia that ended on February 23.

Breedlove said one of these, the USS Mount Whitney, flagship for the Europe-headquartered U.S. Sixth Fleet, had left the Black Sea while the second ship, the USS Taylor, was in port in Turkey, and there were no plans to change their deployment.

Breedlove said the Russian "snap exercise" seemed to be one of a series of exercises that has been a new, but not unknown, feature of Russian strategy over the last couple of years.

Moscow had informed NATO it would conduct the exercise, he said. "We are watching that as it unfolds now."

Breedlove said he had "open and constant contact" with both General Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff of Russia's armed forces, and with the new head of Ukraine's armed forces general staff, Admiral Yury Ilyin.

[RoryAndersonCDT]

S-400s on the move! Apparently in Crimea. (Warning: Loud)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9BvTknJH94


Mi-24 over Bel'bek (Sevastopol).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPD_rq4tbnU

In Sevastopol Russian military helicopters arrived - media
http://www.unian.net/politics/891068-v- ... i-smi.html

[lowchi]

"Der Spiegel" reports that many of the soldiers who took control of the airports have no magazines in their weapons.


Source: http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/raets ... 709-3.html (german)

[lowchi]

"only two men at the entrance with magazines in their weapons, all other without"

https://twitter.com/DEmmerich/status/439377232382156801

[RoryAndersonCDT]

http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-l ... ized/#1454

1454 GMT: ITAR-TASS reports that the Ukrainian parliament is threatening to remove a key agreement with Russia in light of recent events (translated by The Interpreter:
The Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada or parliament is reviewing whether to annul the Kharkhov Agreement on Russia’s stationing of the Black Sea Fleet on Ukrainian territory, ITAR TASS is reporting.

Deputy Oleg Lyashko has made the proposal today from the podium.

“Given the position the Russian Federation is taking on Crimea, we must immediately abrogate the Kharkhov Agreements,” said Lyashko.

Russian troops are in Crimea only because of this agreement. Without this agreement, Russia may have to give up its base on the Black Sea. Russia is highly unlikely to do this. This is a major provocation, in response to a series of major provocations.

Wikipedia offers this quick summary of the Kharkov Agreement:

The Kharkhov Agreement was signed in 2010 between then-president Dmitry Medvedev and Viktor Yanukovych, and extended Russia’s lease on the Crimean facilities until 2042 with an option for a five-year extention, in exchange for a multiyear discounted natural gas contract

[RoryAndersonCDT]

https://www.facebook.com/arsen.avakov.1 ... eam_ref=10
translation http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-l ... ts-seized/

I am reporting on the situation by the end of the night to prevent rumours spreading:

1. Belbek Aiport. Cordoned off by military units from the Russian fleet. Inside the airport are Ukrainian military and border guards. The soldiers outside are camouflaged, armed and unmarked, but they are not hiding their affiliation. The airport is not functioning. There are Interior Ministry positions on the outer perimeter. There have not been any armed confrontations yet.

2. Simferopol Airport. At around midnight, a group of about 100 in civilian clothes, identifying themselves as a Cossack sotnia, got over the fence on the grounds of the airport and came out onto the airfield. Through the efforts of the Internal Troops and the police, these people were driven back, at first into an airport building, and then completely out of the area. Weapons were not used. The ‘cossacks’ fled the airport area at around 1 am when they boarded soft-topped KAMAZ trucks and left. At around 1.30am several trucks arrived at the airport building with 119 camouflaged soldiers with automatic weapons and no markings. They entered the airport terminal and set up inside the restaurant. They are not hiding their affiliation to the armed forces of the Russian Federation. When questioned by Ukrainian Interior Ministry staff “you are soldiers and you have no right to be here”, they answered curtly that “we do not have instructions to negotiate with you”. The situation is static; neither side has used weapons. The Russian soldiers are passively observing the work at the airport, which is not being directly interfered with.

Internal troops and the Ukrainian Interior Ministry have strengthened details in the airport area. Tension is rising. Law enforcement authorities cannot confront regular military forces.

My assessment of what’s going on is that it is a MILITARY INCURSION AND OCCUPATION IN VIOLATION OF ALL INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS AND NORMS. This is the direct provocation of armed bloodshed in the territory of a sovereign sate.

[RoryAndersonCDT]

This scenario template is the result of a few hours of collecting data on the current disposition of Russian forces in the region.

Highlights include the black sea fleet!



The Ivanovets blocking the Balaklava Bay! Along with the 810th Independent Naval Infantry Brigade! As well as the reported S-400s!


If airbases have air units, a reference to the unit based there is in the airbases' name.


Airbase imports by blh!
Ukraine's air defense brought to you by Rudd!

[RoryAndersonCDT]

[Dimitris]

I can't believe the Kerch is still around.

[RoryAndersonCDT]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... raine.html

Russia admits that it has moved troops in Ukraine
Russia has finally confirmed that it has moved troops into Ukraine's restive Crimea region, after speculation about Moscow's involvement

Russian troops have moved into Crimea in what Moscow is calling a mission to “protect Black Sea Fleet’s positions” but which the Ukrainian government has denounced as an “armed intervention.”
The Russian foreign ministry said Friday that it had informed the Ukrainian government that armoured units from the Black Sea Fleet base near Sevastopol had entered Crimea in order to protect fleet positions.

“The Ukrainian side was also passed a note regarding the movement of armoured vehicles of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, which is happening in full accordance with the foundation Russian-Ukrainian agreement on the Black Sea Fleet,” the ministry said in a statement posted on its website on Friday afternoon.
In the same note the Russian foreign ministry said it had declined a Ukrainian request for “bilateral consultations” on events in Crimea because they are “the result of recent internal political processes in Ukraine.”
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Unconfirmed reports were emerging late on Friday that a convoy of armoured vehicles were moving up the Sevastopol highway toward Simferopol, the regional capital.
Earlier armed men in unmarked uniforms occupied key transportation hubs in the Crimea on Friday, in what the Ukrainian government denounced as an “armed intervention” by Russian troops.
Men in unmarked camouflage uniforms occupied two airports and blocked the road between Simferopol and Sevastopol before dawn, while a Russian warship was reported to have blockaded the entrance to the bay at Balaklava, the home of the Ukrainian coast guard.
Several dozen men in camouflage uniforms and carrying AK-74 assault rifles and PK 7.62 mm machine guns occupied a restaurant and patrolled the car park and forecourt of Simferopol international airport early on Friday morning.
The soldiers, who wore no identifying insignia, refused to answer questions from journalists as they strolled up and down outside the airport.
The troops made no apparent attempt to interfere with the running of the airport or take over key infrastructure, contenting themselves with strolling up and down the car park at a leisurely place, apparently deliberately for the benefit of television cameras.
While those patrolling the car park carried assault rifles without magazines attached, belt ammunition could be seen loaded into two medium machine guns carried by sentries outside the occupied restaurant building. Some rifles carried telescopic sights and under-barrel grenade launchers.
They were backed by civilian volunteers wearing the orange and black St George’s ribbon, a symbol of Russian military prowess that has been adopted by pro-Russian activists in Crimea as an identifying mark.
“We are here for your safety,” said one man, who described himself as a member of the “people’s militia and ordered journalists away from the restaurant the troops had occupied. “If you don’t move away from this building maybe someone will throw a grenade at you,” he said. He denied he was threatening journalists, citing an incident yesterday when armed men in the regional parliament building reportedly answered shouted questions with a stun grenade.
“It is an unpredictable situation and we want to make sure everything remains calm. We are just people from this city who want to protect their families,” he said.
The man refused to give his name, but said he and his group arrived at the airport at 6 AM. He refused to say who controlled his "militia" or whether they accompanied or knew the identity of the mysterious soldiers.
Meanwhile, at least 20 men wearing the uniform of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet carrying automatic riffles were reported to have surrounded a Ukrainian border guard post in the port city of Sevastopol on Friday.
A serviceman who identified himself as a Black Sea Fleet officer said “we are here…so as not to have a repeat of the Maidan,” Reuters reported.
A Russian warship is reported to have blocked the bay at Balaklava, where the Ukrainian coast guard is based.

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/pat ... H5v9d.dpuf

Russia Seeks Access to Bases in Eight Countries for Its Ships and Bombers


russia
Russia map

(CNSNews.com) – At a time of escalated tensions with the West over Ukraine, Russia says it is negotiating with eight governments around the world for access to military facilities, to enable it to extend its long-range naval and strategic bomber capabilities.

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Wednesday the military was engaged in talks with Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Algeria, Cyprus, the Seychelles, Vietnam and Singapore.

“We need bases for refueling near the equator, and in other places,” ITAR-Tass quoted him as saying.

Russia is not looking to establish bases in those locations, but to reach agreement to use facilities there when required.

The countries are all strategically located – in three leftist-ruled countries close to the U.S.; towards either end of the Mediterranean; in the Indian Ocean south of the Gulf of Aden; and near some of the world’s most important shipping lanes in the Malacca Strait and South China Sea.

Access to the new locations would extend the Russian military’s potential reach well beyond its existing extraterritorial bases, at the Syrian port of Tartus and in former Soviet states – Ukraine’s Sevastopol, Armenia, Belarus, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and the occupied Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Shoigu said Russia was also beefing up its existing military presence in the post-Soviet region, doubling its troop numbers in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and deploying a regiment of troops to Belarus where it already has fighter aircraft stationed.

“Russia has started reviving its navy and strategic aviation since mid-2000s, seeing them as a tool to project the Russian image abroad and to protect its national interests around the globe,” the RIA Novosti state news agency commented.

“Now, Moscow needs to place such military assets in strategically important regions of the world to make them work effectively toward the goal of expanding Russia’s global influence.”

During his previous tenure at the Kremlin, President Vladimir Putin in 2002 shut down a Cold War-era radar base in Cuba and a naval base in Cam Ranh Bay, Vietnam. Russia cited financial constraints, but the move was also seen at the time as an attempt to improve relations with Washington.

The listening station near Havana had been a key intelligence facility for decades, while the Vietnamese base, which was built by the U.S. during the Vietnam War, was leased to the Soviet Union in 1979 and became the largest Soviet base in the world beyond Moscow’s Warsaw Pact allies.

Upon his return to the presidency in 2012, Putin began exploring options to renew alliances with the communist countries, and Russian Navy chief Vice Admiral Viktor Chirkov said that year Cuba and Vietnam were in the frame.

Russia is now helping Vietnam to upgrade facilities at Cam Ranh Bay, including a submarine training center, and Russia is negotiating for preferential access to refueling and repair facilities there for its ships.

As for the Western hemisphere, Russian Navy ships in 2008 made their first visit since the end of the Cold War, holding joint maneuvers with the Venezuelan Navy in the Caribbean, navigating the Panama Canal, and making a port call in Havana.

Russian Navy vessels visited Cuba again in 2009 and last August – and on Wednesday, a Russian intelligence-gathering ship, the Viktor Leonov, docked in Havana harbor with no explanation from the government or state media coverage, the Associated Press reported.

Russian strategic bombers also visited the region in 2008 – for the first time since long-range flights by the aircraft were halted after the Soviet Union’s collapse – and again last fall, when two Tupolev “Blackjacks” carried out combat training patrols between Venezuela and Nicaragua.

Russian defense spending has been climbing sharply in the years since its last military engagement – the invasion of Georgia in August 2008 – and early this year it was reported to have overtaken Britain to become the world’s third biggest spender, behind the U.S. and China.

According to the British consultancy HIS Jane’s, Russia’s defense expenditure has more than doubled since 2007, and will have tripled by 2016

[22sec]

So basically Russia has secured the Crimea, and placed armored fires along the Ukraine border. Without taking sides, one has to be impressed with the decisiveness with which the Russians acted.

[mikmykWS]

Yeah by all accounts looks like it.

Even if there was political will there is nobody in a position to do anything about it.

Mike

[Terminus]

It's the exact same plan they executed against Georgia. To the letter. We shall see how long the war takes and how big it gets.