OT: Ukrainian crisis

[Gregg]

I believe the Russian plan is simple:
Secure the naval base at Sevastopol, then shut off the gas supply.
Ukraine will then be in the hard spot of either fighting (on Ukrainian territory destroying Ukrainian property) or giving up the Crimea in exchange for the gas supplies they are so dependent upon.
The UN will do nothing because of the Russian Veto Power.
The EU at best could only issue sanctions and cut trade with Russia (but remember a lot of Eastern Europe is also dependent upon Russian natural gas).
NATO is a toothless old dog, with out any real power any more.
Still, if pushed, Ukraine military and people will fight the Russians.
I just hope it does not come to that.
Gregg

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Offered without comment. Interesting points about European banking and the Russian oligarch community.


http://www.politico.com//magazine/story ... xNxemeYZaQ

Yep. Good article, and pretty spot on.

Guess what? I teach a few of those Oligarchs children from time to time, and a bunch from the hedge fund and financial world whose parents build their portfolios and sequester their funds. It's an interesting world.

[warspite1]

Does the politics rule not apply here?

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Does the politics rule not apply here?

What's it to you?

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Does the politics rule not apply here?

What's it to you?

warspite1

What a surprise [8|] Typical response from you - mind you I expected nothing else.

On the General Discussion forum political threads - and yes someone tried to start one on this very subject a few days ago - are stamped on and locked. What makes you think you are so special?

Of course its do as I say, not as I do, with the likes of you.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Does the politics rule not apply here?

What's it to you?

warspite1

What a surprise [8|] Typical response from you - mind you I expected nothing else.

On the General Discussion forum political threads - and yes someone tried to start one on this very subject a few days ago - are stamped on and locked. What makes you think you are so special?

Of course its do as I say, not as I do, with the likes of you.

I read that thread. It looked nothing like this one. The one political post here has been ignored. This thread is about economics and military strategy. It could go political, but it hasn't. We AE players are, for the most part, much more mature than that howling bunch of yokels in the general forum.

For that matter, it's a long, loooooong time since you made a post about AE. Why do you hang out here so much? Is it to see a game with both an AI and PBEM, which works, which doesn't cost $200 and was shipped broken, and which was put together by a dev team with utter professionalism?

[Icedawg]

From what I've read, the people of Crimea want to leave the Ukraine and join Russia. Solution - let them. Self-determination and all that stuff.

Think of it his way. Suppose that Maine wanted to leave the US and join Canada. As long as the Canadians are willing to take them, they should be allowed to go. No need for military action. Just a simple vote by the people involved. Isn't that the whole principle behind democracy?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Icedawg

From what I've read, the people of Crimea want to leave the Ukraine and join Russia. Solution - let them. Self-determination and all that stuff.

Think of it his way. Suppose that Maine wanted to leave the US and join Canada. As long as the Canadians are willing to take them, they should be allowed to go. No need for military action. Just a simple vote by the people involved. Isn't that the whole principle behind democracy?

Think of it this way. What if Texas wanted to become a republic again, go it alone? Do you think the US would allow that? With the resources, positioning and size of Texas?

Could the Ukraine exist economically without the Crimea? I don't know, but that area is both strategically and economically important to it, and the area that they're showing on the news that's more Russian speaking and aligned politically with Russia is about 1/3 or more of the country, not just Crimea. Pretty tough to just let that go for the Ukraine.

[Encircled]

Its far, far, far too similar to the way the USSR dealt with Rumania, Poland, the Baltic States and Finland in 1939-40

Pick a pretext, demand territorial concessions and then occupy the territory it wants, and then probably have a plebiscite to legitimise it all.

Considering it was the policies of the old USSR that resulted in so many ethnic Russians in the Ukraine in the first place, its very worrying

[crsutton]

Well, I will not take sides on this nor am I saying any of it is right as far as Russia goes. However, I remind everyone here of the Monroe Doctrine and US policy about intervention with our immediate neighbors. I am not happy about the course that Russia is steering but to say that they have no right to be concerned about a bordering country with a large ethnic Russian population is just naive. The US has taken military, political and economic action to pressure neighboring countries to reflect out interests and protect our citizens. This includes direct military interventions in Cuba,Nicaragua,Panama,Grenada,Haiti,Mexico,Costa Rica,El Salvador and others, and we have helped engineer political coups in many other countries. I am not saying that this policy is right or wrong. Sometimes it has been justified-sometimes not. But what I am saying is that the Ukraine is definitely in the Russian sphere of influence, and although we can get mad and blow a lot of hot air, save for going to war, there is very little we (the US) can do in this region. Russia has been many times the brute in this region but the face of Ukrainian nationalism has been very ugly at times. Lots of Jews and Poles can attest to that.

I think it is time to take a step back and look at the whole situation rather than be so hasty with our opinions. The history of this area is complex and tragic. Don't allow yourself to be fooled by the media. This situation has a lot more to do with a serious and dangerous ethnic conflict than it has to do with a fight to embrace democracy.

[Czert]

well, janikovitch was democraticaly elected in elections, overwatched by eu. But he told no to joining neo-comunism eu which have aim only of exploiting ukrainan resources - so eu staged "incidents" to overthrow him - syria in bigger case. But this day it is on russian backdoor - and rusia KNOW that they must fight, othervise thy will lose everthing.
Ukraine is just another grun on chess bord by minds behid this, which abolutely dont care about lost lives.

[Encircled]

I know my Eastern European history

Its a history that doesn't come out too well for the subject peoples of the USSR, or its neighbours, or anyone who gets in their way

There are far too many parallels here with what has happened before, and a Russian power that ignores territorial agreements it guarantees, treaties it signs and the borders of its neighbours is one that Europe needs to be afraid of.

The "Might to right" policy was wrong when we did it, wrong when Germany did it, wrong when the USA did it and its wrong when Russia do it.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Icedawg

From what I've read, the people of Crimea want to leave the Ukraine and join Russia. Solution - let them. Self-determination and all that stuff.

Think of it his way. Suppose that Maine wanted to leave the US and join Canada. As long as the Canadians are willing to take them, they should be allowed to go. No need for military action. Just a simple vote by the people involved. Isn't that the whole principle behind democracy?

Think of it this way. What if Texas wanted to become a republic again, go it alone? Do you think the US would allow that? With the resources, positioning and size of Texas?

Could the Ukraine exist economically without the Crimea? I don't know, but that area is both strategically and economically important to it, and the area that they're showing on the news that's more Russian speaking and aligned politically with Russia is about 1/3 or more of the country, not just Crimea. Pretty tough to just let that go for the Ukraine.

If we change the example to California, can we encourage them? [:D]

[MrKane]

BTW: Does anyone notice that Putin is coping exactly scenario used by Adolf Hitler in 1938/39 to take over Czechoslovak ?
- Phase one: He sent saboteurs & troops wearing uniforms without marking to simulate riot in place.
- Phase two: He has used a few unhappy Ukraine politics(with Russian citizenship) to cry that Russian citizen are suffer from very bad Ukrainian's nationalists.
- Phase three: He has sent military forces to invade Crimea to protect Russian citizens.
- Phase four: Western Europe & USA will do nothing, nobody in EU and USA want to die for Crimea.
- Phase five: (I really hope we will not see it) He will takeover remnant parts of demoralized country without any resistant after a few months.

[AW1Steve]

Here's a question more in keeping with the nature of the forum , strategy versus politics. IF NATO , or the USA , or the western powers DID agree to oppose this action by Russia, short of a nuclear strike , what could they do? [&:]

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

Here's a question more in keeping with the nature of the forum , strategy versus politics. IF NATO , or the USA , or the western powers DID agree to oppose this action by Russia, short of a nuclear strike , what could they do? [&:]

A fair amount, but it would take backbone and will ... both of which are in short supply.

If Maggie was still around do you think Putin would have every even considered this gambit? [X(][X(][X(]

[AW1Steve]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

Here's a question more in keeping with the nature of the forum , strategy versus politics. IF NATO , or the USA , or the western powers DID agree to oppose this action by Russia, short of a nuclear strike , what could they do? [&:]

A fair amount, but it would take backbone and will ... both of which are in short supply.

If Maggie was still around do you think Putin would have every even considered this gambit? [X(][X(][X(]

Maggie with "Ronnie"? Probably not. "Maggie" with "Jimmy"? Oh yeah![:D]

But seriously , what concrete steps could be taken? There are no nearby US/NATO/EU bases within range. Some limited air power might interfere. You could fly in light troops or small packets of air power, but they truly would be "sacrificial tokens". And as the Ukrainians them selves have taken no "hard action" why would anyone expect an external commitment to help them? Seapower would take at least a week to arrive in any numbers , and have to operate in an extremely hostile Black sea environment. SSN's are effective , but not very visible. And the Black sea is one of those oceans I wouldn't want to operate an SSN in. An SS maybe , but not a big SSN.

Sure you can do economic , political and other sanctions , but how effective are they , at least in the short run? [:(][&:]

I'm afraid that , like the Georgia invasion , this will be seen as aggression by Putin , there won't be much outsiders can do. WHAT it can do is serve as a warning of things to come. Revitalization of NATO might be a start. [:(]

[panzer cat]

You hit it right on the head, backbone and will. Most n.a.t.o. forces are set up for peace keeping ops. I read that Holland has no tanks, and the germans are down to 1 heavy brigade. Not a whole lot of firepower left in western Europe, except the british and French.

[Icedawg]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Icedawg

From what I've read, the people of Crimea want to leave the Ukraine and join Russia. Solution - let them. Self-determination and all that stuff.

Think of it his way. Suppose that Maine wanted to leave the US and join Canada. As long as the Canadians are willing to take them, they should be allowed to go. No need for military action. Just a simple vote by the people involved. Isn't that the whole principle behind democracy?

Think of it this way. What if Texas wanted to become a republic again, go it alone? Do you think the US would allow that? With the resources, positioning and size of Texas?

Could the Ukraine exist economically without the Crimea? I don't know, but that area is both strategically and economically important to it, and the area that they're showing on the news that's more Russian speaking and aligned politically with Russia is about 1/3 or more of the country, not just Crimea. Pretty tough to just let that go for the Ukraine.

I'd say if the Texans want to separate, then they should be allowed to do so. I've never met a separatist movement I would not support. I guess that's because my country was founded on a separatist movement. Americans would have to be complete hypocrites to not be supportive of people trying to free themselves from governments they don't accept.

As an Englishman though, I bet you see things a bit differently. For a couple hundred years or so, your nation fought freedom movements tooth and nail (and it looks like you've got another one in the works with the Scots at it again).

[Icedawg]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

Well, I will not take sides on this nor am I saying any of it is right as far as Russia goes. However, I remind everyone here of the Monroe Doctrine and US policy about intervention with our immediate neighbors. I am not happy about the course that Russia is steering but to say that they have no right to be concerned about a bordering country with a large ethnic Russian population is just naive. The US has taken military, political and economic action to pressure neighboring countries to reflect out interests and protect our citizens. This includes direct military interventions in Cuba,Nicaragua,Panama,Grenada,Haiti,Mexico,Costa Rica,El Salvador and others, and we have helped engineer political coups in many other countries. I am not saying that this policy is right or wrong. Sometimes it has been justified-sometimes not. But what I am saying is that the Ukraine is definitely in the Russian sphere of influence, and although we can get mad and blow a lot of hot air, save for going to war, there is very little we (the US) can do in this region. Russia has been many times the brute in this region but the face of Ukrainian nationalism has been very ugly at times. Lots of Jews and Poles can attest to that.

I think it is time to take a step back and look at the whole situation rather than be so hasty with our opinions. The history of this area is complex and tragic. Don't allow yourself to be fooled by the media. This situation has a lot more to do with a serious and dangerous ethnic conflict than it has to do with a fight to embrace democracy.

+1

Very well-stated.