Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (A) vs. Q-Ball (J)

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Panjack

Rook749: You're right: the THEORY of what to do with CVs early is straightforward, the actual practice is much harder. My main problem is my relative lack of skill in reading the tea leaves (of intelligence) so to have some idea of where the KB is hanging out.

BBFanboy: Very good suggestions about AVG. It looks like, given movements of Japanese carriers last turn, that I have an opening to have my SAG "trapped" in the South China Sea run away, but I'm playing with the idea of having them try to cause some trouble first.

I like watching the Allies raise a ruckus, but make sure the potential gains are worth the ships you are risking. He is conquering bases in the Philippines, Borneo and Malaya where he will soon base Patrol Planes and Torpedo Bombers. It will become harder and harder to escape the
South China Sea.

[Panjack]

My compromise was to send a couple of DDs into harm's way in the South China Sea (hoping they will have a better chance of dodging bombs and torpedoes than CL and CA), and telling the larger ships to double speed away from hostile waters. The larger ships might still be exposed to air attack one more day.

Other than doing a bit of harm through carrier strikes in the Gilberts and southern Marshalls, I've accomplished little of note. And a landing at Mersing now calls into question whether all units bopping down Malaya will get to Singapore in time before the RR is cut off.

I now see that rather than putting my focus on stopping an early invasion at Mersing and trying to do damage to landings in the PI and northern Borneo, I should have moved aggressively to stop landings at Singkawang and Jolo where, I now understand, Japan's goal is to establish airbases with HQa (and torpedoes). Once this is done, Japan controls a large part of the area now in dispute.

[Panjack]

December 13, 1941
--------------------------------

The bad news: Japan’s expansion has been rapid and unstoppable. But you knew that.

The good news: two small DD TFs operating in the South China Sea caused some harm to transport TFs, sinking a couple of xAKs and damaging a number of others. Over 600 causalities were reported for Japan. Although these TFs survived 4 different attacks from the air without suffering a scratch, they have clearly used up their luck…and ammo…and the time has come to extract them from the area. I hope they survive.

Additionally, my carrier search planes came across an AMC east of the New Hebrides, clearly with bad intentions as regards my shipping, and the follow-up visit by Dauntless dive bombers did enough damage to the ship that it will be out of operation for some time and it might even sink.

My TF of CA and CL that was surrounded by Japanese carriers in the South China Sea was able to successfully extract itself from this bad situation. Although this TF has not shot a single shell in the week it has been at sea (!), accumulated damage, and some time moving at maximum speed, requires it get some down time in port.

[pontiouspilot]

For the 1st 6 months Force Z is worth more as a hidden deterrent than as an actual fighting force. Save it for a poorly escorted transport TF and avoid anything that might have a BB. DEI is good ambush country until Japanese bombers and recon catches up to their advances. By March 1st you must beware of Betties/Nells which by then should have range over most of DEI.

[Panjack]

Pontiouspilot: why does it take so long for the Betties/Nells to show up in the DEI?

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: Panjack

Pontiouspilot: why does it take so long for the Betties/Nells to show up in the DEI?

Just depends on the situation and your opponent. In my current 2 vs 2 game I had torpedo armed Betties flying from Kendari and hitting the USN fleet in the area by December 9th. If you're asking about the limiting factor, it's probably the air HQs. There are only a small handful of those available so they can't be in every place at once.

ORIGINAL: Panjack
Rook749: You're right: the THEORY of what to do with CVs early is straightforward, the actual practice is much harder. My main problem is my relative lack of skill in reading the tea leaves (of intelligence) so to have some idea of where the KB is hanging out.

Indeed it is difficult and one can go through all the old AARs and see all the games that were ended based off of poorly executing this. I've always been of the opinion that CVs are just one of the many tools the Allies have and that an effective commander doesn't feel the need to use a tool just because he has it on hand. Especially with USN CVs; the risk reward ratio is generally not that great early on. Don't feel bad about leaving them in a (safe) port or in a vacant part of the ocean. If you ask me the USN was far too aggressive with their CVs early on and it was only b/c of Japanese incompetence in managing their CV fleet that they didn't pay for it; put a WitP AE veteran in a time machine and put him in charge of naval operations for the IJN and I honestly think he'd do better job. We do have more practice in fighting WWII than they did after all [:D]

[Cribtop]

Panjack - Win, lose or draw, your entries are funny, so you've got that going for you. Sometimes a hilarious recitation of disaster can make for a good AAR. [:D]

That said, far from a disaster, you are doing well, landing a few licks early is all the Allies can do. Begin thinking now what your counter-offensive plans will be, but resist the temptation to put them into action too soon. There's a lot of legwork on the Allied side to get up to a war footing, logistics is key but time is on your side.

PS - To my knowledge the Japanese can have Netties up over parts of the DEI within the first week of the war. Base + Air HQ with torps + Netty group is all you need.

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop
Panjack - Win, lose or draw, your entries are funny, so you've got that going for you. Sometimes a hilarious recitation of disaster can make for a good AAR. [:D]

Even more so given the title of the AAR. Let's hope for your sake it's Japan who makes of a fool of himself rushing into a bad situation [8D]

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

ORIGINAL: Cribtop
Panjack - Win, lose or draw, your entries are funny, so you've got that going for you. Sometimes a hilarious recitation of disaster can make for a good AAR. [:D]

Even more so given the title of the AAR. Let's hope for your sake it's Japan who makes of a fool of himself rushing into a bad situation [8D]

You have not yet began to despair or panic. The first ray of sunlight happens in April of 42 when the Japanese lose their amphibious assault bonus. I think in mid 42 you get some better planes. Somewhere along the way your subs start working properly. The first game is particularly difficult IMO.

Reserve your strength and pick your fights carefully and plan on turning it around in early 43.

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: Sangeli
...Indeed it is difficult and one can go through all the old AARs and see all the games that were ended based off of poorly executing this. I've always been of the opinion that CVs are just one of the many tools the Allies have and that an effective commander doesn't feel the need to use a tool just because he has it on hand. Especially with USN CVs; the risk reward ratio is generally not that great early on. Don't feel bad about leaving them in a (safe) port or in a vacant part of the ocean....

An example of this is my modest plan to transit through the Gilberts looking for opportunistic targets...what could be safer I thought...but I took a too-northern route and got with 10 hexes or so of, what my opponent tells me, was an HQa with torpedo bombers at the ready. Only bad weather apparently kept them from flying. [X(]

I thought I was taking a reasonable calculated risk, but it turns out my calculations were based upon poor knowledge about the risks involved.

But, still, I plan to make some aggressive moves with my carriers...once I learn more about the relevant risks...if only to create some excitement. Or, at least, to make Q-Ball think I will take occasionally aggressive moves so he has to take this possibility into his planning.

On the other hand, based upon your perspective I will dial it back just a notch.

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Panjack - Win, lose or draw, your entries are funny, so you've got that going for you. Sometimes a hilarious recitation of disaster can make for a good AAR. [:D]

That said, far from a disaster, you are doing well, landing a few licks early is all the Allies can do. Begin thinking now what your counter-offensive plans will be, but resist the temptation to put them into action too soon. There's a lot of legwork on the Allied side to get up to a war footing, logistics is key but time is on your side.

PS - To my knowledge the Japanese can have Netties up over parts of the DEI within the first week of the war. Base + Air HQ with torps + Netty group is all you need.

The betting window is now open for when my first major disaster will occur. Of course, now I need to stress out about having to provide a "hilarious recitation" of this disaster!

My first counter-offensive plan is already moving forward: I am teaching the fair citizens of Sydney basic Japanese so when the city falls they can engage in more effective partisan attacks.

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: Wargmr
You have not yet began to despair or panic....

I'm already feeling despair and grief. They say, perhaps tritely, the first stage of grief is denial but I'm not denying anything...but when I do think of denial I envision a landing by the Japanese at Cairo in mid-1942, they are moving that fast.[:(]

December 14, 1941
-------------------
Japan has landed at Palembang where I've not yet got enough troops to hold out more than a day or two. Landings also occurred in the Aleutians at Adak and Amchitka.

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: Panjack

ORIGINAL: Wargmr
You have not yet began to despair or panic....

I'm already feeling despair and grief. They say, perhaps tritely, the first stage of grief is denial but I'm not denying anything...but when I do think of denial I envision a landing by the Japanese at Cairo in mid-1942, they are moving that fast.[:(]

December 14, 1941
-------------------
Japan has landed at Palembang where I've not yet got enough troops to hold out more than a day or two. Landings also occurred in the Aleutians at Adak and Amchitka.

In my game the Japanese had the KB in the indian ocean threatening to take Bombay by late February...

[Panjack]

Bombay in February? That's scary. Are you past that point in your game?

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: Panjack

Bombay in February? That's scary. Are you past that point in your game?

Yes, I nearly killed his whole army in India. It is March of 1944 and I am almost on Luzon.

Check out my AAR "What could possibly go wrong?"

:] Go look in the early points and read me whining about Diego Garcia...

[Panjack]

Wargmr: going over to your AAR right now!

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: Panjack

ORIGINAL: Sangeli
...Indeed it is difficult and one can go through all the old AARs and see all the games that were ended based off of poorly executing this. I've always been of the opinion that CVs are just one of the many tools the Allies have and that an effective commander doesn't feel the need to use a tool just because he has it on hand. Especially with USN CVs; the risk reward ratio is generally not that great early on. Don't feel bad about leaving them in a (safe) port or in a vacant part of the ocean....

An example of this is my modest plan to transit through the Gilberts looking for opportunistic targets...what could be safer I thought...but I took a too-northern route and got with 10 hexes or so of, what my opponent tells me, was an HQa with torpedo bombers at the ready. Only bad weather apparently kept them from flying. [X(]

I thought I was taking a reasonable calculated risk, but it turns out my calculations were based upon poor knowledge about the risks involved.

But, still, I plan to make some aggressive moves with my carriers...once I learn more about the relevant risks...if only to create some excitement. Or, at least, to make Q-Ball think I will take occasionally aggressive moves so he has to take this possibility into his planning.

On the other hand, based upon your perspective I will dial it back just a notch.

Really what it comes down to is patience (or lack thereof) with offensive operations. The Japanese can bull their way through Allied positions but you can't for some time. You have to wait for the right moment (like a KB attack somewhere else) even if it means staging your invasion for weeks. Going forward with an operation just because you have your forces ready is a recipe for disaster; you'll be surprised whats lurking behind the lines that you never counted on appearing.

[Mike McCreery]

The best way to proceed with this game around 1943 depending upon progress on both sides, is to prepare multiple axis of attacks onto Japanese territory. The objective is to start attacking where the KB is not but if you do not know where the KB is, a multi direction attack will most likely flush it out.

Too many players rely on the all or nothing linear attack mode.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Panjack

ORIGINAL: Sangeli
...Indeed it is difficult and one can go through all the old AARs and see all the games that were ended based off of poorly executing this. I've always been of the opinion that CVs are just one of the many tools the Allies have and that an effective commander doesn't feel the need to use a tool just because he has it on hand. Especially with USN CVs; the risk reward ratio is generally not that great early on. Don't feel bad about leaving them in a (safe) port or in a vacant part of the ocean....

An example of this is my modest plan to transit through the Gilberts looking for opportunistic targets...what could be safer I thought...but I took a too-northern route and got with 10 hexes or so of, what my opponent tells me, was an HQa with torpedo bombers at the ready. Only bad weather apparently kept them from flying. [X(]

I thought I was taking a reasonable calculated risk, but it turns out my calculations were based upon poor knowledge about the risks involved.

But, still, I plan to make some aggressive moves with my carriers...once I learn more about the relevant risks...if only to create some excitement. Or, at least, to make Q-Ball think I will take occasionally aggressive moves so he has to take this possibility into his planning.

On the other hand, based upon your perspective I will dial it back just a notch.

To understand the Nettie threat, take a look at their incredible range. Betty range is 21 hexes, and Nells start at something like 23 hexes and the next model goes to 28 hexes.
Of course they cannot carry torps to the limit of their range, but they certainly outrange any allied TB, including Cats. The usual setup is a Mavis or Emily squadron doing LR NavSearch to find victims and a couple of Nell/Betty squadrons to reach out and touch you where it hurts. [:(]
Keep an eye on the Detection Level (D/L) on all of your TFs every turn. If it suddenly goes up, check the Op Report for Mavis sightings or Glen sightings by you TF. Check range to enemy bases from that point. Consider whether you have enough CAP to stay or should run if you are in Nettie range.

[Panjack]

December 15, 1941
--------------

Singapore: going better than I hoped. Intel from a mole I have in the Japanese high command indicates that my strong move to defend against a Mersing landing did cause a delay in the landing as he didn’t want to engage Force Z with surface ships but wanted to pummel it from the air. This seems to have caused him to hold back the invasion force for a day or two so to keep all his surface ships away from Mersing and Force Z. The subsequent delay in the landing opened up the possibility that most of the LCUs in Malaya could RR down to Singapore. All helpful units are now almost in that city.

As it now stands, Singapore has 530 AV, 2 forts and more being built, and 47,000 supply. The only air units left behind are a few Buffalo units. They are not attempting to CAP, leaving AA to defend the city from air attacks, because sending Buffalos up in the face of Japanese sweeps is no smarter than inviting lemmings to enjoy the view from the top of a cliff. Instead, the Buffalos are low-level attacking the units at Mersing and I hope this slows the movement of Japanese units towards the rail line.

Palembang: A reported 7000 Japanese troops are attacking the city. I have only 130 AV in there as I didn’t move fast enough to transport units by air into the city. But with an early landing in Palembang I really couldn’t have got many more units into the city.

Amchitka and Adak: A little under 2000 units landed on each of these islands the day before. The Grand Fleet of the Aleutians (a PC and a couple of YPs) failed to scare the transports away from a landing at Adak. Although the landing of Japanese troops couldn’t be stopped, the next day Dauntless dive bombers caused significant damage to 2 out of the 3 ships at Adak that I presume were off-loading supplies. Japanese troops on Adak won’t be having sake for their celebration dinner tonight. That’s good, but now Q-Ball knows where all my carriers are. That's not good.

The Lexington TF stumbled onto another AMC, this time near Neumea, and a surface battle broke out. Amazingly, my air search failed to discover the raider and only after it got to within 19,000 yards was it spotted by lookouts. The AMC then took 10 hits from Lexington’s escorts and no damaged was sustained by the US ships. Later in the day dive bombers finished off the ship. So far two of the merchant raiders Q-Ball has sent out have been neutralized.

I figure today's successes, and those of past days, have slowed by the Japanese advance by, perhaps, 17 minutes.