Teaching the History of the Space Race: A Soviet AAR

[CV60]

Q2 1958

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)
$3648.1 $3,771.6 -$771.6

Actions

Successfully Launch of Sputnik 2

Events

At the end of Q1, the Sputnik 2 probe is at 77% reliability and the R-7 is at 88%, with an overall 82% system reliability

Analysis

The Sputnik 2 mission was successful, pleasing the Politburo and guaranteeing a maximum budget for the 1959-63 budget cycle. However, my budget situation is currently dire, with only $3600 remaining. The next two seasons will be very lean. From the teaching perspective, like Korolev, I was forced to take a risky flight before fully ready in order to meet political demands necessary to get the resources I need for the program.

[CV60]

Q3 1958

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$1,276.5 $3,353.9 -$353.9

Actions

Close Sputnik 2
Close R-7

Events

At the end of Q3, the Vostok capsule is at 64% reliability and the R-7 Vostok booster is at 80% reliability.

Analysis

The R-7 and Sputnik 2 programs are immediately closed as a money-saving measure. This leaves only the R-7 Vostok booster and Vostok programs open. I have some funds left, so I embark on a training program for most the SET and cosmonauts, and some, but not all, of the controller personnel. The construction of additional SET facilities will have to be delayed until Q1 1959, when the new budget comes into effect.

The good news is that the Vostok program is rapidly advancing. I should be able to begin test launches in 2Q 1959, and manned launches by 2Q 1960, after my mandatory Zenit flights are completed. This is slightly ahead of the planned schedule.

[CV60]

Q4 1958

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$ 522.6 $3,363.6 -$353.9

Actions

NSTR

Events

At the end of Q4, the Vostok capsule is at 69% reliability and the R-7 Vostok booster is at 83% reliability.
At the end of Q4, NASA begins Project Mercury. This, as well as the lack of an X-15 or Explorer launch, clearly indicates that the USSR program is ahead of the NASA program.

Analysis

At the end of Q4, I have barely enough to fund ongoing operations. I send a few more controllers to training, but I have just about exhausted my funds.

[CV60]

Interregnum -1959

In my AAR, the Soviets successfully reach the necessary prestige to maximize the space program budget. For the 1959-62 budget cycle, there will be $10,000/quarter. According to the house rules, I must roll a dice to determine what the national priorities for the space program will be for the 1959-63 cycle. I roll a 2, directing that political objectives are to be my main focus, and the program must immediately put 4 SET personnel on the Luna 3 program. However, the Soviet program is still on the hook for flying two Zenit missions, due to the random event rolled at the conclusion of the 1957 Sputnik mission. So a total of 8 SET personnel are effectively being taken out of my direct control to support these mission.

Based on these events, the Soviet objectives for the upcoming cycle are to 1) Complete the Vostok program; 2) complete a series of Luna 2 and Luna 3 probes to gain additional prestige to reach the 9375 level, and maximize the program budget to $26,250 for the the 1963-67 cycle; 3) build the larger VAB and SET facilities; 4) Develop the Proton booster for planetary exploration in the 1963-67 cycle and 5) Develop the SET, Cosmonaut and MC personnel for the challenging 1964-68 LK-700 flight program.

In terms of meeting the teaching objectives, a student at this point should begin to understand some of the competing priorities that Korolev had to meet to keep his lunar program on track. Like Korolev, the Soviet player will likely be facing both budget pressures and time pressures, flying missions before they are fully ready to meet political/budget/prestige goals.

[CV60]

Q1 1959

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$981.5 $3,977.9 $6,022.1

Actions

Open R-7 Molyna booster program
Open Luna 3 program

Events

At the end of the Q1, the R-7 Vostok booster is at 84% reliability, and the Vostok capsule is at 75%.
NASA successfully launches the Explorer 1 probe.

Analysis

The requirement to research both the Luna 3 and the Vostok program require I hire 2 more SET personnel. I actually need more personnel, but I’m wary of the expense this early in the budget cycle. The R-7 Molyna booster program is also opened, as it will be needed for the Luna 2 and Luna 3. I could have used the less expensive R-7 Luna booster, but the Molyna can also be used for heavier planetary and lunar payloads later in the budget cycle. Given the shortage of SET personnel, I’m opting to take a revolutionary, versus evolutionary booster development strategy, in hopes it saves me time, if not expense.
The successful launch of Explorer 1 makes the space race a little closer. However, I believe that the development of the Vostok is sufficiently far ahead that the Soviet manned program will easily beat NASA into space.

[CV60]

Q2-4 1959

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$ 5,657.6 $4,123.9 $5,876.1 Q2
$10,733.7 $4,123.9 $5,876.1 Q3
$16,609.8 $4,123.9 $5,876.1 Q4

Actions

NSTR

Events

At the end of the Q3, the R-7 Vostok booster is at 89% reliability, and the Vostok capsule is at 82%. The R-7 Molyna is at 62 % and the Luna 3 is at 81% reliability.

NASA performs a flight test of the X-15.

Analysis

I’m using this gap in the flying schedule to accumulate funds for the Vostok flights. Given the reliability of the system, I anticipate flying manned missions at Q3 of 1960. The first flight will be an unmanned orbital flight in Q1.

[CV60]

Q1 1960

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$16,254.2 $4,123.9 $5,876.1

Actions

Launch Unmanned Vostok/Zenit mission.

Events

Successful launch the Orbital Unmanned Vostok/Zenit mission.
NASA opens the Biosatellite program
NASA flight Explorer-Extended mission

Analysis

The unmanned orbital Vostok/Zenit mission has a 84% reliability rating, so I’m relatively confident that it will be successful. I could raise it higher by flying a suborbital flight, but I’m trying to conserve funds. As some of the controllers are less that 75%, I’m betting on the reliability of the system rather than mission control for success. Fortunately, the gamble paid off. I still must launch one more Vostok/Zenit mission to complete the military requirements.

Image-Zenit Reconnaissance Satellite (http://www.thespacereview.com/article/750/1)

[CV60]

Q2 1960

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)
$ 19,205.8 $4,792.9 $5,207.1

Actions
NSTR

Events
Unsuccessful launch the Orbital Unmanned Vostok/Zenit mission-Heatshield failure on reentry.

Analysis
The heatshield failure of the 2nd Vostok mission puts me in a bit of a conundrum. I have to fly one more mandatory Zenit mission to fly before I can fly the manned Vostok missions. However the mission control staff need more training before they begin to support manned flights. I opt to do a 3 quarter “training time out” to bring mission control staff up to the standards necessary for manned missions. Hopefully, I will still be ahead of NASA in 3 quarters.

Image (http://news.discovery.com/space/astrona ... 131106.htm)

[CV60]

Q3-4 1960

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$ 19,205.8 $4,792.9 $5,207.1 Q3
$23,612.9 $4,792.9 $5,207.1 Q4


Actions

NSTR

Events

Q3-NASA successfully flies theX-15 altitude flight
Q4- The Vostok capsule has a 90% reliability, the Luna 3 probe a 92%, and the Molyna boostera 79% reliability.

Analysis

My budget is looking relatively healthy now. My flight schedule-notsomuch. I’m behind in both the Luna 3 flight and in my manned Vostok programs, primarily because of training issues with the mission controllers. My plan is to resume the Vostok flights in 2 Q 1961, followed immediately by Luna 3. I’ll also get the Luna 2 program started, more to give my SET personnel something to work on. As soon as the level 3 VAB is completed, I will also start the Proton K program, more to provide a jump-start on the UR-700 booster. If I maintain this schedule, I should have a manned orbital flight in 4 Q 1961.

[CV60]

Q1-2 1961

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$ 18,832.1 $6,087.8 $3,912.2 Q1
$18,412.6 $6,087.8 $3,912.2 Q2

Actions

Q1-Open Proton K Booster
Q1-Open Luna 2
Q2-Successful Vostok/Zenit mission

Events

Q2- The Vostok capsule has a 91% reliability, the Luna 3 probe a 93% reliability, the Luna 2 probe is at 82 % and the Molyna booster is at 82% reliability and the Proton K booster is at 77% reliability.


Analysis

Luna 2 is opened in Q1 to provide a useful project for some of my SET personnel. I also pull some of the extra SET personnel out of Luna 3 and the Molyna project to get additional training. The rapid advance of the Proton K booster is a bit of a surprise. I believe it is the result of a game-generated random event that increased the R&D advance by 20%.
The overall reliability of the Vostok is 93%, and the mission was successful. However, there was a glitch during the mission. Even with the additional training of the mission control personnel, there remained a 20% chance of a failure. This highlights the importance of having trained mission control personnel in the game.

[CV60]

Q3 1961

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$17,793.1 $6,087.8 $3,912.2

Actions

Launch manned suborbital Vostok

Events

Successful suborbital Vostok mission

Analysis

Under the house rule, the successful completion of the Zenit/Vostok missions now allows for the continuation of the manned Vostok flight program. The house rules also require that I fully man the Luna 3 development until it reaches maximum reliability, or it is flown. This give me an incentive to fly the Luna 3 mission and free up some of my research personnel. However, I’m concerned about the NASA program, so I want to get a man into space immediately. While my plan was to duplicate Gagarin’s flight, skipping a suborbital flight and go straight to a manned orbital mission. However, this is very risky, with a 20% reliability penalty associated with this strategy. Because of the inexperience of the mission control personnel, and my earlier Zenit failure, I opt for the safer, but more expensive and time-consuming strategy of launching a manned suborbital mission. Of note, the game’s “Buzzopedia” notes that the USSR historically skipped the manned suborbital flight, because unlike the Mercury capsule, the Vostok was highly automated, so a Vostok manned suborbital mission was not as crucial.

[CV60]

Q4 1961

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$14,873.5 $6,087.8 $3,912.2

Actions

Launch manned orbital Vostok
Construct Level 2 Cosmonaut center
Construct Level 3 SET center

Events

Successful manned orbital Vostok mission
NASA performs a successful uncrewed Mercury suborbital flight test

Analysis

My budgetary burn rate is increasing. I would like to get the Vostok and Luna2 and Luna 3 programs closed to save money. I begin building additional infrastructure this quarter. Specifically, I believe I need to have more trained cosmonauts for the Lunar program. Currently, I only have 7 cosmonauts, which is marginally enough, only if there is no attrition. To support the 9-10 cosmonauts I believe are necessary for an aggressive lunar program, I begin construction on a Level 2 facility. Similarly, the 13 flight controllers I have allows is the bare minimum required for lunar missions. To support the additional flight controllers I need, and to give the necessary 4 years of training, I begin constructing a level 3 mission control center.
The Mercury test flight indicates that the Soviet program is 6-12 months ahead of the US manned program.

Image, Vostok 1

[CV60]

Q1 1962

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)


$10,528.7 $5,408.6 $4,591.4

Actions

Close Vostok
Close R-7 Vostok
Construct Level 3 VAB
Launch Luna 3

Events

The Luna 3 launch fails, due to a fuel leak that destroys the vehicle and pad.

NASA achieves a speed record with the X-15


Analysis

With the successful Vostok orbital flight, I decide to close down the program, as well as its associated R-7 booster program While I consider keeping it open to execute a duration flight, I ultimately decide that the still-relatively untrained flight controllers makes this a riskier proposition than I would like. Rather, I will perform the duration flight using the LK-700.
The Vostok program raises the USSR prestige to 13246, ensuring the budget will be maximized during the upcoming budget cycle. While this takes a lot of pressure of the requirement to fly superfluous missions, the political role made at the beginning of the budget cycle require the Luna 3 mission be flow, to free up my SET personnel.
The VAB level 3 is begun, to allow the start of research on the UR-700 booster.


The loss of the first Luna 3 mission is unfortunate, and is simply an example of bad luck, as the system reliability for the Molyna was high, and the mission control staff were very capable. A bit of historical trivia: The image below is of the loss of the Cygnus spacecraft in October 2014. The cause of the loss was possibly a failure in the AJ-26 engines. However, the rest of the story is that the AJ-26 is refurbished and modified NK-33, which were built as part of the USSR’s N-1 project. It a twist of history, an engine that is directly derived from an engine that destroyed all of the USSR’s N-1s forty years later also destroyed an American rocket. http://www.spaceflightinsider.com/missi ... 3-antares/




Image-Communism: The gift that keeps on giving

[CV60]

Q2 1962

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$ 10,013.1 $6,385.6 $3,614.4

Actions

Launch Luna 3

Events

The Luna 3 probe has a 94% reliability, the Luna 2 probe is at 89 % and the Molyna booster is at 79% reliability and the Proton K booster is at 83% reliability.
NASA successfully launches the orbital Mercury mission, and opens the Ranger 3 lunar impactor program

Analysis

I briefly consider using the Proton K booster for the Luna 3 mission and simply closing down the Molyna program. The unexpectedly rapid development of the Proton K has resulted in a booster that is now more reliable than the Molyna, and with a greater lift capacity. However, the Molyna is less expensive to launch, so I will use it for the Luna series, and then close the program. My minor gamble pays off, and the Luna 3 probe successfully returns the first photos of dark side of the moon. (Image). In a minor historical footnote, the film used by Luna 3 came from recovered American reconnaissance balloons the Soviets recovered. The balloons used a temperature and heat resistant film that the Soviets could not produce. Being unable to manufacture it, and needing film with these characteristics for the Luna 3 flight, they re-purposed the film for use by the Luna 3 probe. (http://www.damninteresting.com/faxes-from-the-far-side/)
NASA’s launch of the manned orbital Mercury mission before flying a suborbital flight is a bit of a surprise. Although it confirms my estimate that the Soviet program is between 6-12 months ahead of the US, it appears that the US is on the low end of that estimate. The inefficiencies that the military and political diversions have forced upon the USSR’s program are significantly cutting into its lead.

[CV60]

Q3 1962

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$8,980.4 $6,170.4 $3,829.6


Actions
Launch Luna 2

Events
Successful Luna 2 impactor mission

Analysis

My budget situation is not bad. However, to open the LK-700 program will cost over $22,000. To have sufficient funds on-hand for the opening will require conservation of funds now, so to not delay the opening of the program. Because of this, I am not opening any additional programs to replace the now-closed Luna 3 and Vostok programs. Rather, I will concentrate on building infrastructure and training my controllers and SET personnel


Image-Luna 2 releasing sodium tracking gas

[CV60]

Q4 1962

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$10,710.1 $5,626.4 $4,373.6

Actions

Close Luna 2 program
Close R-7 Molyna booster program

Events

NASA opens Project Gemini

Analysis

According to the house rules, the successful flight of Luna 2 means that all political and military restrictions are lifted from the Soviet program. However, the impending end of the budget cycle means that I can’t take advantage of my new-found managerial freedom, as a new dice roll at the beginning of next quarter will likely re-jigger the priorities.

NASA's opening of Project Gemini also shows that my lead is shrinking. Theoretically, NASA can use a Gemini-derived spacecraft to reach the moon. Currently, the Soviets have no space projects open, except for the Proton, which doesn't have a payload to deliver.

[CV60]

Interregnum -1964

According to the house rules, the Soviet player must roll a dice at the beginning of the Q1 1964 turn. My roll is a "6", which is modified to a 5 because the Soviets have achieved four or more goals ahead of the US. This means that the Politburo, led by Leonid Brezhnev, have made the military program a main goal. Each year I will be required to fly at least one successful Zenit mission. I must also develop the Proton K to 88 % reliability. These restrictions represent the diversion of resources to the military program, or researching areas of interest to the military.

At this point, the Soviet program is in fairly good shape. The Proton rocket is already at 85% reliability, so the military restrictions above don't effect it much. More problematic is the house rule that mandates the loss of my top two human rocket designers, along with my top unmanned rocket designer. This rule is to simulate to effect of the in-fighting between Korolev and rival designers. The requirement to fly Zenit missions will also be problematic, as it will take away both resources and one launch window each year. The necessary infrastructure to support the lunar program is built, and the and personnel needed to support the lunar program have been hired and are substantially trained.

In terms of learning objectives, a student at this point will hopefully have learned about some of the challenges faced by Korolev in trying to plan and resource a program when he lacked sufficient political support for the lunar landing.

I would be interested in hearing of modifications to the house rules that might further illustrate the challenges faced by Korolev. If anyone has any ideas, please post them here.

[CV60]

Q1-2 1963

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$14,388.6 $7,689.9 $18,560.1 Q1
$5,901.6 $10,260.7 $15,989.4 Q2

Actions

Q1 Open UR-700 Booster program
Q2 Open LK-700 program
Q2 Open Mars 69 program
Q2 Open Krechet spacesuit sub-program

Events

NSTR

Analysis

At the beginning of Q1, I have insufficient funds to start the LK-700 program. However, the completion of the upgrade of the VAB allows me to start the UR-700 booster program. Unfortunately, I must also open the R-7 and Vostok/Zenit program, as the military focus will require a Zenit flight each year. The requirement to keep the Zenit program open also means that I can only have the LK-700 program and one other program open without undertaking some expensive upgrades to my headquarters.
In Q2 I open the Mars 69 program, as well as the LK-700 program. The purpose of the Mars 69 program is primarily to provide additional prestige, and thereby political support for funding for the lunar missions. I expect that the anticipated lengthy development time for the LK-700 and UR-700 booster will prevent many flights during the current budget cycle, so the Soviet program will have to fly Mars and Venus missions to generate political and thus financial support for the lunar flights.

Image-LK-700

[CV60]

Q 3-4 1963

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$ 16,803.5 $10,494.4 $15,755.6 Q3
$26,127.4 $10,494.4 $15,755.6 Q4

Actions

Q3 Fly Zenit mission for the military

Events

At the end of Q3, the UR-700 booster is at 68% reliability, the LK-700 is at 51%, the Krechet-94 spacesuit is at 42%, and the Mars-69 probe is at 49% reliability.
The mandatory Zenit mission is successful
NASA successfully launches the Biosatellite

Analysis

Development of the LK-700 and Krechet are proceeding slowly.

[CV60]

Q1 1964

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$41,483.0 $10,494.4 $15,755.6

Actions

Q3 Fly Zenit mission for the military

Events

At the end of Q1, the UR-700 booster is at 70% reliability, the LK-700 is at 55%, the Krechet-94 spacesuit is at 50%, and the Mars-69 probe is at 55% reliability.

Analysis

Development of the LK-700 and Krechet are proceeding slowly. The slow development is one of the risks of the revolutionary Vostok to LK path that I took. My strategy was to make a revolutionary, not evolutionary technological step. However, such a strategy, by bypassing a more incremental technological approach, can slow development.