IN-COW Leaked Report on WW II.

[rkr1958]

Central and Southern China.

[rkr1958]

South China Sea.

[CanInf]

I think many are coming to the same conclusion about unlimited breakdown.

[rkr1958]

Germany.

German land forces are divide into three army groups, two of which are in the East and one in the West. These three army groups are: (1) Army Group Prussia (von Leeb), (2) Army Group Silesia (Rundsedt) and (3) Army Group West (von Bock).

(1) Army Group Prussia, commanded by General von Leeb.
(1.a) Composition: Inf HQ, mech corps, 5 inf corps, 1 artillery division (150mm).
(1.b) Case White, the invasion of Poland, Initial (1st impulse) Objectives:
(1.b.1) Link up with Rundstedt forces.
(1.b.2) Clear the Poles North and West of Warsaw.
(1.b.3) Clear the Poles North of Lodz.
(1.c) Sep/Oct 1939 Objectives
(1.c.1) Support Rundstedt forces in the capture of Lodz.
(1.c.2) Support Rundstedt forces in the capture of Warsaw.

(2) Army Group Silesia, commanded by Rundsedt.
(2.a) Composition: armor HQ, 2 armor corps, 2 mot corps, mtn corps, 4 inf corps, garrison corps, Eng div, A/T div (150 mm)
(2.b) Case White, Initial (1st impulse) Objectives:
(2.b.1) Establish and secure link to von Leeb's forces
(2.b.2) Capture Danizg
(2.b.3) Capture Pozan
(2.b.4) Capture Kotowice
(2.b.5) Capture Krakow
(2.b.6) Clear Poles East and South of Lodz
(2.b.7) Clear Poles South of Warsaw
(2.c) Sep/Oct 1939 Objectives
(2.c.1) Capture Lodz.
(2.c.2) Capture Warsaw.

[rkr1958]

German Army Groups Silesia (Rundsedt) and Prussia (Von Leeb)

[rkr1958]

German Army Group West

(3) Army Group West, , commmanded by Von Bock.
(3.a) Composition: Inf HQ, Inf Div, SS Inf Div, JAG AT Div, 1 Inf corps, 2 Inf garrisons, 88mm AA Div, Ju 88 ATR.
(3.b) Objectives (Sep/Oct 1939):
(3.b.1) Defend Germany from the West (CW and France) from land, sea and air.
(3.b.2) Invade Denmark Completely*.
(3.b.3) Invade Holland Completely.
(3.c) Reinforcements (Sep/Oct 1939)
(3.c.1) 4 Reorg points (i.e., von Bock & Ju 88 ATR).
(3.c.2) Reorg reserves mech corps, mot corps, 2 inf corps.

*Completely means an invasion with such speed and surprise that it denies easy intervention in said countries by potential belligerents (i.e, CW and France). In the case of Denmark it means to capture all hexes on the invasion turn that border the North Sea, thus denying the CW the ability to disembark troops there. In the case of Holland this means the capture of both Rotterdam and Amsterdam on the surprise impulse.

OKW is well aware that successful complete invasions of Denmark and Holland in Sep/Oct 1939 are optimistic objectives and require the cooperation of the weather and a bit of luck surviving potential CW and France surprise ground strikes against Von Bock's HQ, not to mention slipping a division or two past the RN and French navies sure to be operating in the North Sea. Not to bore you with the calculations, which I can vouch were done, OKW puts the probability of achieving a successful complete invasion of Denmark and Holland in Sep/Oct 1939 at just over 15%. The odds for a successful complete invasion of Denmark only are slightly less than 50%. And the odds for a successful complete invasion of Belgium only are right at 30%.

[rkr1958]

Italy.

Italy's short term strategy will be one of opportunism. Italy will support their German ally as a "force in being". That is, a force in being on the French border and ready to rush in if the French decide to ignore their border security with Italy. A force in being in Eastern Libya and ready to rush for the Suez Canal if the CW decides to ignore Egypt's security, particularly if they decide to move Wavell's armor HQ from Egypt to France. A force in being in the Med and ready to take Malta or Gibraltar if the CW doesn't defend them properly. A force in being in East Africa ready to snatch up CW and French colonies if the allies overlook their defenses there. A force in being to ravage allied convoys in the Med, Cape St. Vincent and the Atlantic. Italy plans to be these forces in being will remaining neutral, especially with France, for the short term.

1. Army Group Italia, commanded by General Balbo.
1.a. Composition: Inf HQ, mtn corps, mot corps, inf corps, 1st inf div, arty div.
1.b. Objectives:
1.b.1 Provide for the security of mainland Italy.
1.b.2 Be prepared to rush into southern France, seizing resources and key ports on the Med if France ignores to the border.
1.b.3 Provide for the security of Sicily.
1.b.4 Provide for the security of Sardinia.
1.b.5 Provide for the security of Albania.

[rkr1958]

2. Army Group Africa, commanded by General Graziania
2.a Composition: Arm HQ, mech corps, 2 inf corps, garrison corps, AT div, 2 Libya Terr, Eritera Terr, Supply Unit
2.b Objectives:
2.b.1 Establish command in Libya
2.b.2 Establish a Force in Being in Eastern Libya against Egypt / Suez Canal
2.b.3 Provide security of Libya
2.b.4 Provide security of Italian Somaliland
2.b.5 Provide security of Eritea
2.b.6 Provide security of Ethopia
2.b.7 Establish a Force in Being in East Africa against CW and French Colonies
2.b.8 Oversee the "safe" transfer of the Supply Unit from Eritera to Libya.

[rkr1958]

2. Army Group Africa (East Africa Theater)

[rkr1958]

Italy's Regia Marina

A navy is useful only if it can influence the situation on land to its nation's favor.

3. Regia Marina, commanded by Admiral ...
3.a Composition: Flotilla 1 and 2.
3.b Objectives:
3.b.1 Safe retrieval of supply unit from Eritera to Libya.
3.b.2 Safe transport of Graziania and forces from Italy to Libya.
3.b.3 Maintain supply in the Italian Coast and secure Sardinian RP to factory.
3.b.4 Maintain supply through the East Med (i.e., keep supply Graziania's forces in Libya/Egypt in supply).
3.b.5. Serve as a force in being to allied convoys in the Med, Cape St. Vincent and the Atlantic.
3.b.6 Serve as a force in being to allied supply in the Med.
3.b.7. Perform necessary missions with the minimum profile possible in order not to provoke the allies into a DOW.

[rkr1958]

1. USSR Front Europe, commanded by Timoshen.
1.a Composition: Inf HQ, 4th inf div, Eng div, 2 inf armies, mech army, at div, 2 arty div, cav corps, 2 gar armies.
1.b Objectives:
1.b.1 Perform no actions that could jeopardize US entry against Germany / Italy.
1.b.2 Minimize actions that could delay US entry against Germany / Italy.
1.b.3 Capture East Poland (Sep/Oct 1939).
1.b.4 Capture Baltic States (Sep/Oct 1939).
1.b.5 Claim Bessarabia (2-6 months)
1.b.6 Maintain garrison ratio sufficient to ensure Nazi-Soviet Pact.
1.b.7 Prevent Finland from aligning with Germany, thereby forcing Finland to forever remain neutral. (This requires that the Soviets DOW Germany which requires them to be able to break the pact first) (30-36 months).

[rkr1958]

2. USSR Front Asia, commanded by Zkuhov.
2.a Composition: Arm HQ, 3 Inf armies, AT Div, 2 Cav corps, 1 Cav div.
2.b Objectives:
2.b.1 Perform no actions that could jeopardize US entry against Japan.
2.b.2 Minimize actions that could delay US entry against Japan.
2.b.3 Serve as a threat in being against Japan in Manchuria
2.b.4 Provide security of Soviet Asia and their resources to factories
2.b.5 Prevent collapse of the ChiComms

[rkr1958]

CW. Objectives.

1. Ensure full production (i.e., max build points).
2. Increase oil saved to British Isles by an average of 1 per turn (currently 2 saved oil points in England).
3. Maximize oil saved elsewhere.
4. Provide security of CW convoy and supply lines.
5. Maintain CP reserve sufficient to mitigate losses from successful sub attacks in two sea areas.
6. Secure Egypt.
7. Secure Gibraltar.
8. Secure Malta.
9. Secure Bombay.
10. Secure Malaysia and Singapore.
11. Maintain security of colonies.
12. Secure Burma oil point.
13. Maintain supply to land forces in Europe, Africa and Asia.
14. Minimize CPs and transport exposure to the Italian navy while Italy is neutral.
15. Deter/negate Sep/Oct 1939 Germany invasion of Denmark.
16. Deter/negate German invasion of Holland up to and through Jan/Feb 1940.
17. Deter/negate German invasion of Belgium up to and through Jan/Feb 1940.
18. Maintain Security of the British Isles.
19. Safe transport (i.e., port to port) of 6-4 mot to Gibraltar in Sep/Oct 1939.
20. SCS transport of inf div to Bombay in Sep/Oct 1939. (Though the odds are low, losing an unoccupied Bombay to partisan requires a major effort to dislodge and destroy such a partisan. So it's just better to garrison Bombay starting in Sep/Oct 1939 than to risk it.)

[rkr1958]

CW. Royal Navy.

[rkr1958]

CW. India. Burma.

[rkr1958]

CW. Malaya. Singapore.

[rkr1958]

French.

Objectives:
1. Make installing Vichy the most attractive option for the Euro-axis (i.e., Germany and Italy).
2. Interdict Germany convoys in the Baltic as long as there's access (i.e., as along as Denmark in unconquered).
3. Don't waste French surface ships and transports.
4. Look for opportunities to attrit the German Kriegsmarines or Italian Regina Marina.
5. Maintain security and sovereignty over French colonies.
6. In an act of "friendship" allow the USA to intern the French CV Bearn.
7. Recover and reassign Bearn's pilots.
8. Survive as long as possible.

[rkr1958]

French Navy.

[rkr1958]

Turn 1 Recap. Sep/Oct 1939.

Axis Impulse #1.

Naval Moves.
1. Italy moves transport into Red Sea, box 0, and picks up the Supply Unit from Asmara, Eritrea.

Ground Strikes.
2. Japan. 2 CVPs (10% chance each) ground strike OOS Chinese Calvary. Overall 19% of disorganizing. The ground strike fails.
3. Germany. 5 and 3 factor bombers (surprise) ground strike 2 Polish infantry corps in Warsaw. 87.8% chance per unit, 77% chance to disorganize both. 1 of the 2 Polish corps are disorganized (21.5% chance for that pre strike).
4. Germany. 5 and 4 factor bombers (surprise) ground strike Polish inf HQ and corps in Lodz. 91% chance per unit, 83% chance to get both. Both units are disorganized.

Notable Rails.
5. Terauchi from Korea to North Central China.

Land Combat
6. Germany. Pozan >+21A. Automatic.
7. Germany. Poland[52,94]. +21B. Automatic.
8. Germany. Krakow. >+21A. Automatic.
9. Germany. Poland [52,94]. +19.7B. Automatic.
10. Japan. They pass on a +8A attack in northern China [75,139]. Too much risk of disorganization this early in the turn.

Allied #2.

Notable Naval Moves.
1. USA. Nimitz & Transport directly to Pearl Harbor.
2. USA. 2 CPs from San Diego to Hawaiian Islands.
3. USA. 1 CP from Hawaiian Islands to Pearl Harbor.
4. France. SCS w/Div directly to Djibounti, French Somaliland.
5. France. Transport infantry corps in Syria to West Med.
6. CW. BEF (Gort Inf HQ, mech corps and mot corps) to North Sea.
7. CW. SCS w/Div from Liverpool to Arabian Sea.
8. CW. Transport mot corps directly from Liverpool to Gibraltar.
9. France. 2 subs to Baltic, which fail to find the German convoys.

Notable Rail Moves.
10. USA. Div from Charleston to San Diego (i.e., East to West Coast).

Allied Ground Strikes.
11. France. 3 factor bomber surprise ground strike on von Bock's inf HQ in the woods. 36% chance to disogranzie. The ground strike fails.
12. CW. 3 factor bomber extended range surprise ground strike on 1 of 2 stacks (2 units) prep for the invasion of Denmark. 0 of 2 units disorganized. The ground strike is a failure.
13. CW. 2 factor bomber surprise ground strike on the second German stack (1 unit) prep for the invasion of Denmark. The ground strike fails.
14. Poland. 3 factor bomber, escorted by Polish fighter, ground strike on Rundstedt arm HQ and armor corps. It was a mistake by the Germans to stack Rundstedt with such a valuable second unit. The ground strike is contested by a German fighter, which on paper, outclasses the Polish fighter. However, the Polish bomber is cleared and both fighters return to base. The Polish ground strike fails to disorganize either unit much to relief of the Germans.

The four allied ground strikes, 3 of which were surprise, were all utter and complete failures.

Notable Land Moves
15. USSR. They move a unit into Eastern Poland thus claiming it. 1 chit is removed from the US Germany/Italy entry pool leaving 1 chit.
16. USSR. They move a unit into the Baltic States thus claiming these states. 1 chit is removed leaving the US Germany/Italy entry pool empty.

Notable Reorg.
17. USA. Nimitz uses 3 points to reorg a transport (2 points) and CP (1 point) at Pearl. Note since the USA (had to) use a combine reorg costs for naval units were doubled.

[rkr1958]

Axis #3.

Weather.
1. Oh my goodness, the weather roll is a 10! What the CW and French failed to accomplish with there ground strikes, mother nature does. German's potential for invading Denmark is negated, for this impulse at least. Also, storms in Poland potentially dampens (pun intended) the Germany's push there too.
Arctic. Storms. (Poland)
North Temperate. Storms. (Poland, Western Front, Northern/Central China.)
Med. Rain.
North Monsoon. Storms. (Central/Southern China.)
South Monsoon. Rain.
South Temperate. Fair.

Weather roll modifier +2, impulses advance by 2.

Actions.
2. German - land, Italy(Neutral) - combined, Japan - land. After much consideration both Germany and Japan decide to keep their forces on the move and take lands. Germany needs two impulses of land combat (Lodz, Warsaw) to completely finish off Poland. They are guaranteed this impulse and one other this turn. After that there's a chance the turn could end so the Germans decide to go after Lodz this impulse.

Naval Move.
3. Italy. Move transport with supply in the 0-box of the Red Sea to port, Bardia in Libya.

Land Combat.
4. Germany. +16.333 A with HQ support (Rundstedt) and Engineering support. Pre attack calculations put the chance of capturing Lodz at 99.3%, almost certain. However, these same calculations put the chance of losing the engineering division (first lost if necessary because it's providing support) at 9% and the chance of all units becoming disorganized at 0.7%. The 0.7% would occur only if the attack fails. So if this happens, both Lodz and Warsaw remain Polish this turn and Poland survives. The 0.7% wasn't really that concerning. What was was the 9% chance of losing the engineering division. The attack goes off without a hitch with a unmodified roll of 12, which produces a modified roll of 28. Lodz falls to the Germans without loss though Rundstedt is disorganized due to providing HQ support to the attack.


Western Front.
5. Germany. Germany moves their forces on the Danish border to be in a position for a complete invasion of Denmark or to support a complete invasion of Holland. Germany would be unable to do both. The complete invasion of Denmark requires fine or snow (50%, North Temperate). The complete invasion of Denmark requires that the Germans capture on the surprise impulse Copenhagen and all land hexes in Denmark bordering the North Sea to prevent CW forces in the North Sea from disembarking to such hexes. The complete invasion of Holland would require a combine and require the Germans to slip a division or two by the CW and French navies in the North Sea in order to ensure that both Amsterdam and Rotterdam fall on the surprise impulse.
6. The complete invasion of Denmark requires fine or rain (50% chance, North Temperate) and Holland requires fine or rain (70%). So the Germans would only be forced to decide between the two operations in their next impulse if the weather is fine (40%). Since Germany can accomplish a complete invasion of Denmark in the snow, it makes sense to delay the Denmark operation and go after Holland first if the weather is fine. So, there's a 70% chance that the Germans will invade Holland on their next impulse.
7. Von Bock (3 pts w/land) reorgs a 8-6 mech corps, 9-4 inf corps and a 8-4 mot corps. Note that because of the storms the German ATR was unable to be used to reorg a planned 4th unit.

Allied #5

1. BEF (Gort, mech & mot) stay embarked in the North Sea to remain as a threat in being against German aggression against Denmark and / or Holland.

Notable Naval Moves.

2. USA. Sent the transport in Pearl, and reorg by Nimitz last impulse, to the China Sea to pick up MacArthur from the Philippines.

3. USA. Moved the CP in Pearl, also reorg by Nimitz last impulse, to the China Sea.

Notable Land Moves.

4. CW. Disembark a division in the Arabian sea into Bombay.