An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: rkr1958

Scrapped & Lent Air Unit.

I don't think I was shy about either scrapping units or lending air units.

warspite1

Apologies if I've got the wrong end of the stick but if this is about creating a more historic version of the game then why would you scrap the Swordfish or the Anson?

[rkr1958]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Apologies if I've got the wrong end of the stick but if this is about creating a more historic version of the game then why would you scrap the Swordfish or the Anson?

No, my apologies ... I scrapped them because I didn't know better. I just added that to my list of what not to do next. If you don't mind, for historical flavor can you provide me insight about the roles and accomplishments of these aircraft during the war.

[rkr1958]

August 24, 1939. Polish intercept and decryption of German ULTRA messages sent from OKW (Berlin) to the following three German commands:
(1) German's Commander and Chief, Polish Front (CINC-P).
(2) Germany's Corps Commander, Kiel Military District (KMD).
(3) Germany's Army Commanders, Rhineland & Stuttgart Military Districts (RMD, SMD).

Though immediately relayed to civilian and military leadership with access to decoded ULTRA, the information contained within the intercepts though worrisome is not overly so because of the confidence that the Polish government has in the fact that both Great Britain and France, in fulfillment to their pledges to Poland, will directly come to Poland's aid in their hour of need.

[rkr1958]

NOT FOR THIS GAME BUT FOR THE PREVIOUS GAME -- Situation in Poland Post Surprise Impulse.

For an all out German attack on Poland, which applies to both this and my previous game, I sorta fell into predicable German and Polish setups. This has led to a predictable Polish campaign where four automatic attacks produced the situation shown. Then, really independent of weather except for storms, the next two German impulses result in a near automatic attacks on Lodz and Warsaw. For the attack on Warsaw (3rd axis impulse), the Germans are in position to take a combine and either put in place the 3 CP's, or replace them, need to ship the 3 Swedish RP's to German factories.

Well after a half dozen or so plays of the Polish campaign, the Poles threw the Germans a curveball in their setup. In fact, when I set the Germans, though I was to set the Poles up afterwards, I wound up surprising myself.

[rkr1958]

HIAAR-2018-01 (Now Back to our Current Game). German and Polish Setups.

Before I get to the Polish curveball, I'd like to note the following:

(1) German placed her three fort hexsides to bolster the defenses of Kiel and Bremen from amphibious invasions.
(2) Note the four divisions of the Kiel Military District (KMD) Corps.
(3) Note the overwhelming strength available to CINC-P, commander of the Polish Theater.

Now the Polish curveball was to place the cavalry corps normally placed in the words northeast of Warsaw, in the clear hex northeast of Pozan. The Polish High Command debated this merits of this attack but in the end thought the risk of a surprise impulse attack on Warsaw was worth it. While the odds of this attack would be high, it wouldn't be certain and if the attack failed then Poland would last into next turn. Also, given the disposition of German forces, this setup denies the four automatic attack generally made by the Germans even if they didn't take the Warsaw attack bait.

I truly surprise myself with this one.

[rkr1958]

September 1, 1939.

At 4:45 a.m., 1.5 million German troops invade Poland all along its 1,750-mile border with German-controlled territory. Though China has been at war in Asia for nearly 8-years now, World War 2 has official begun.

[rkr1958]

Turn 1. 9/1/39. Axis #1. Germany's Surprise Impulse. Invasion of Poland.

Germany does indeed take the Warsaw attack bait. With +1.5 odds modifier in HQ support from von Bock and another +3.6 from 18 factors of ground support(5,2,2 factors doubled due to surprise), the Germans were able to moved the attack odds from +9.6, which gave only a 68.8% chance of victory, to +14.7, which gave a 96.1% chance. These two modifiers, and oh not to mention the most important factor of all which is attack factors attacking across rivers get full value (i.e., are not halved) during the surprise impulse, made this attack a go. Still, there was a 4% chance of utter failure (i.e., Warsaw holds, all attacking forces are disorganized and Germany loses 1 or 2 units) which likely would have resulted in Poland surviving the turn. In the end, CINC-P deemed 4% risk acceptable. Germany missed a fractional (i.e., 70% chance of getting +15), conducted the attack at +14 and rolled average (i.e., an 11), which was good enough to get the best result.

Germany also conduct two other, both of which were automatic, land combats. One to take Pozan and the other to destroy and achieve a breakthrough against the Polish inf division in the woods 2 hexes southwest of Lodz.

Two things worth noting:

(1) Germany advanced only one unit into Warsaw adjacent to Lodz and their defenders. Only one, albeit a strong one, corps was advanced to reduce the potential harm of a Polish ground strike on units adjacent to Lodz, which needs to fall in order to conquer Poland.
(2) CINC-P failed on one of his surprise impulse objectives, which was the capture the Port City of Gdynia. Oh well, the port city will fall next impulse and given the capture of Warsaw on the surprise impulse this is something that OKW will just have to live with.

[rkr1958]

War Diaries (example).

I plan on keeping air, naval, land combat, and other war diaries which I plan to present at the end of each turn for (or summarizing) that turn. Below are examples of the air war and land combat diaries for German on their surprise impulse with Poland. I will take time to explain my shorthand and the stats I plan to collect.

Air War Diary.
For all the air missions I remember to record this diary will capture the Nav air, ground strike (GSTK), ground support (GSPT) and Port Attacks (PA) made through the game for all nations. The diary will include for all air missions the turn, impulse, attacker (or attacking power), defender (or power being targeted), air mission type, target hex, number and type of air sent, whether or not the mission is opposed and which air units are cleared.

For a ground support (GSPT) mission the total number of factors added to the land combat will be recorded.

For a ground strike mission (GSTK), the following data will be recorded:
Prob(0): This is the probability that given the tactical factors clear, weather and terrain what is the probability that the ground strike will disorganize a given unit in the hex attacked. For example, during the surprise impulse German conducted a ground strike against Lodz, which contained a HQ-I, inf corps and FTR2, with a FTR3 (3 TAC factors) and 2 LND3 (2 TAC factors each). With no terrain or weather modifications, and given it was the surprise impulse, the probability that any given unit was disorganized is equal to, 1 - (0.7*0.7)*(0.8*0.8)*(0.8*0.8) = 0.7993.
D: D is the number of organized defenders in the hex attacked, which in our example is 3 (HQ-I, inf, FTR2).
Ex # Disorg: Is the expected number of units disorganized by the strike, which is 0.7993*2 = 2.4 in our example.
Act # Disorg: Is the actual number disorganized.
Act-Ex # Disorg: Is the difference between the actual and expected number disorganized. If negative then the ground strike results favored the defender and if positive it favored the attacker.

Land Combat Diary.

This diary includes turn, impulse, the attacker, defender and target hex. It also includes the number of attacking ground units, number of defending ground unit, CRT (i.e., assault or blitz) and odds. The remaining columns will be explained in more detail and are:
PWIN: Is the probability that the defender will leave the targeted hex vacant, either through retreat and/or loss of units, and the attacker has at least one surviving unit which can advance into the target hex if desired.
Retreat/BrkThru: Is only non-zero for Blitz attacks and is the probability that a Blitz attack achieves a breakthrough or forces any surviving defenders to retreat.
Ex Def Kill: Is the expected number of defenders killed.
Prob Att Loses 3: Is the probability that the attacker will lose 3 units (i.e., the dreaded 14 on the assault table under those conditions calling for an extra loss).
Prob Att No Loss: Is the probability that the attacker will not take any losses. A very important number if the attack is aided by an engineer.
Ex Att. Lost: Is the expected number of attackers lost.
Prob Att Org: Is the probability that all attackers will remain organized, which the obvious exception of an HQ unit providing support.
Prob Att 1/2 Org: Is the probability that half of the surviving attackers (round up) remain organized.
Prob Att Disorg: Is the probability that all surviving attackers are disorganized.
Ex Att. Disorg: Is the expected number of attackers disorganized. Note that Ex Att. Disorg + Ex Att. Lost will never, can never, exceed the total number of attackers. Otherwise there's a bug in my calculations that need correcting.
WIN: Is 1 if the attack is successful and 0 if not.
WIN - PWIN: Is the difference between WIN and PWIN. If negative then the land combat went in the favor of the defender, if positive then in favor of the attacker.
Act Def Kill: Is the actual number defenders killed.
Act - Ex Def. Kill: Is the difference between the actual and expected number of defenders killed.
Act Att. Kill: Is the actual number attackers killed.
Act - Ex Att. Kill: Is the difference between the actual and expected number of attackers killed.
Act Att. Disorg: Is the actual number surviving attackers disorganized.
Act - Ex Att. Disorg: Is the difference between the actual and expected number of surviving attackers disorganized.

Phew ...

[rkr1958]

September 3, 1939.

At 1115 BST the Prime Minister, Neville Chamberlain, announced the British deadline for the withdrawal of German troops from Poland had expired.

He said the British ambassador to Berlin had handed a final note to the German government this morning saying unless it announced plans to withdraw from Poland by 1100, a state of war would exist between the two countries.

Mr Chamberlain continued: "I have to tell you now that no such undertaking has been received and consequently this country is at war with Germany."

Similarly the French issued an ultimatum, which was presented in Berlin at 1230, saying France would be at war unless a 1700 deadline for the troops' withdrawal was adhered to.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: rkr1958

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Apologies if I've got the wrong end of the stick but if this is about creating a more historic version of the game then why would you scrap the Swordfish or the Anson?

No, my apologies ... I scrapped them because I didn't know better. I just added that to my list of what not to do next. If you don't mind, for historical flavor can you provide me insight about the roles and accomplishments of these aircraft during the war.

warpite1

The Anson is an aircraft that I suspect is always scrapped in WIF - and with little wonder. But the sad fact is in 1939 this aircraft formed the backbone of Coastal Command (10 squadrons). Some of the problems were:

- not suitable for combat (1 fixed forward .303 machine gun (and one in a rear turret)
- a bomb load of just 4 x 100 pounders (not sure what they were supposed to do to a submarine....)
- here's the real doozy when one considers the purpose of Coastal Command - the Anson had insufficient range to patrol all the way to the Norwegian coast.....

So to be more realistic I think the Commonwealth should have to waste a pilot on this.

This aircraft says quite a lot about British preparedness for war in 1939. [Suggestion: I think the RAF should also be ensure that it has a Fairey Battle counter in the game if at all possible come May 1940].

As for the Swordfish... well this biplane was the backbone of the small Fleet Air Arm in 1939. Unlike the Anson (which was relegated to a training role where it enjoyed a long career (but not needed in WIF)) this antiquated aircraft did at least prove its combat worth - Taranto and the killing of Bismarck being perhaps its finest hours. The losses during the 'Channel Dash' proved that it was hopelessly obsolete, although the losses when attacking Scharnhorst in Norway in 1940 kind of confirmed that anyway. In WIF the FAA will have this aircraft as a carrier plane but there should be probably be a land based one too. At least unlike the Anson, the WIF Swordfish are actually useful - low range but good ASW component and perfect for the 0-box.

Faithful Annie (top) and the Stringbag (below)

[Courtenay]

I love the headline on the upper right of the Telegraph: "Poles smash way into East Prussia".

[rkr1958]

ORIGINAL: Courtenay

I love the headline on the upper right of the Telegraph: "Poles smash way into East Prussia".

Wow ... you've got great eyes ... never noticed that headline before. You're right ... the headline's a hoot.

This reminds me of a clip in one of the early episodes of the BBC series, "The World at War" covering the phony war. The clip is actual footage shot be British newsreel crew attacked to a French unit attacking a German position on a bridge across the Rhine. The newsreel crew presented this as a victory for the allies and a harbinger of things to come. What strikes me is that no way would the allies involved had believed that in a few short month that France would be conquered by German forces within a six week span in May and June.

[rkr1958]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: rkr1958

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Apologies if I've got the wrong end of the stick but if this is about creating a more historic version of the game then why would you scrap the Swordfish or the Anson?

No, my apologies ... I scrapped them because I didn't know better. I just added that to my list of what not to do next. If you don't mind, for historical flavor can you provide me insight about the roles and accomplishments of these aircraft during the war.

warpite1

The Anson is an aircraft that I suspect is always scrapped in WIF - and with little wonder. But the sad fact is in 1939 this aircraft formed the backbone of Coastal Command (10 squadrons). Some of the problems were:

- not suitable for combat (1 fixed forward .303 machine gun (and one in a rear turret)
- a bomb load of just 4 x 100 pounders (not sure what they were supposed to do to a submarine....)
- here's the real doozy when one considers the purpose of Coastal Command - the Anson had insufficient range to patrol all the way to the Norwegian coast.....

So to be more realistic I think the Commonwealth should have to waste a pilot on this.

This aircraft says quite a lot about British preparedness for war in 1939. [Suggestion: I think the RAF should also be ensure that it has a Fairey Battle counter in the game if at all possible come May 1940].

As for the Swordfish... well this biplane was the backbone of the small Fleet Air Arm in 1939. Unlike the Anson (which was relegated to a training role where it enjoyed a long career (but not needed in WIF)) this antiquated aircraft did at least prove its combat worth - Taranto and the killing of Bismarck being perhaps its finest hours. The losses during the 'Channel Dash' proved that it was hopelessly obsolete, although the losses when attacking Scharnhorst in Norway in 1940 kind of confirmed that anyway. In WIF the FAA will have this aircraft as a carrier plane but there should be probably be a land based one too. At least unlike the Anson, the WIF Swordfish are actually useful - low range but good ASW component and perfect for the 0-box.

So I went back to my notes and reconstructed my thinking for the scrapping of the Anson and the two land based swordfish. The Anson with a range of 5 had no air-to-sea factors and only 1 tactical and 2 strategic factors. Not sure how historical but seemed a perfect choice to scrap. Though, I have to admit from its picture it's a gorgeous aircraft.

For the two swordfish, one with an air-to-sea of 4 and the other with 3, it was the range of 4 and the age of the aircraft as the reasons why I scrapped them. I did keep the Vildebaest, which has an air-to-sea of only 1, but a range of 9, which translates into a reaction range of 5 (i.e., half of 9 round up). With a reaction range of 5 and based in Liverpool this means that a Vilebeast based in Liverpool could react to the 0-box in the Faeroes Gap, Bay of Biscay or North Sea. Though granted, a 4-range swordfish based in Belfast could also react to both the Faeroes Gap or Bay of Biscay with 4 instead of 1 air-to-sea factors. However, during the nav air phase, the 9 range Vildebeast, if based in Belfast, could flyout to the 3-box of either the Faeroes Gap or Bay of Biscay, whereas the swordfish could reach the 1-box. Even if based right on the coast the 4-range swordfish could never reach higher than the 2-box.

Apparently, while my thinking wasn't historical at some level, I hope my scrapping decisions are within the realm of historical belivability. If any consolation, the CV Furious is loaded with carrier based swordfish.

[rkr1958]

French Historical Rules/Guidelines(1).

I don't like to call these house rules, which I guess they are. But, I wanted to show the guidelines which I will be using to play the various powers in the attempt to achieve that elusive historical feel. Some of these rules hopefully will make more sense when I finish providing them for all powers. Tonight, I've just captured those for France and the CW. Like everything else with this attempt, these rules are not meant to be rigidly enforced and are most definitely subject to revision, addition or deletion.

By the way, I plan to allow Italy only to DOW the allies (both France and CW) when the Germans control Paris or have three or more units adjacent to Paris.

[rkr1958]

French Rules/Guidelines(2).

[rkr1958]

CW Rules/Guidelines(1).

[rkr1958]

CW Rules/Guidelines(2).

Now #6 is an interesting one, which I'll discuss in the next post.

[brian brian]

I think you are going to need to use a hefty dose of "WiF-Zen" for this project. You made the right call scrapping the Anson. The land based Swordfish ... tougher call, but those weren't used all that much in the war - perhaps because it was pretty rare that any Axis targets were in range? They showed their worth from CVs for sure.

But keep in mind that the air counters don't always represent homogenous assemblies of several hundred aircraft of the exact same make and model, for one. I think most likely Bomber Command had some flying from all of the models present in the CW At-Start draw of 5 LND3 counters. Only hindsight and combat experience reveals the effectiveness of the aircraft design. But ultimately, just one LND3 is placed on the board.


Mapping the Battle of the Atlantic from history to WiF will also be pretty wonky no matter what you do. There are a whole lot of playability trade-offs in the Sub Combat system. Do you know what happened to the first UK aircraft that tried to sink a U-Boat? The U-Boat captured the air-crew.

You read that correctly. U-Boat 1, aircraft 0. The British bomber attempted to drop their bombs on a U-Boat discovered on the surface. The bombs bounced off the water and exploded in the air, causing the aircraft to wreck. The U-Boat chivalrously (still Sept. 1939) rescued the airmen and took them to a POW camp in Germany. It took the British until well in to 1940 to figure out how to sink U-Boats from the air - and when they did, short range aircraft were not the platform of choice at all. There were great rows between Bomber Command and Coastal Command (or perhaps Fleet Air Arm?) over who got four engine bombers coming off the assembly lines. The same happened with the Americans - conflicts that had to be settled by FDR himself (just like you in World in Flames - the Commander in Chief).

[Incidentally, on your next impulse you will need to get some U-Boats in to the North Sea so they can sink the HMS Courageous, or perhaps somewhere in the "Western Approaches", I forget.]

But for simplicity sake, aircraft vs SUBs are equally valuable in 1939 as any other year of the war, in WiF.

Another key - HEAVY CRUISERS WERE NOT ASW PLATFORMS. On many occasions, the Royal Navy would designate heavy surface ships to escort Convoys - when there was known to be a threat of a sortie of the Kriegsmarine. Even when this was done, the war ships maintained their own ASW escort of destroyers, and sailed at some distance to the actual convoy, because of the risk to the surface ships from submarines. Off Norway on the runs to Murmansk, the RN lost several heavy cruisers to the U-Boats. At a few other points in the war I believe, Cruisers were at time restricted from leaving port I believe, as their ASW escort had to be sent out with convoys as ASW assets were stretched to quite near the breaking point.

The Naval Combat system is a nice harmonious whole that can handle surface, air, and submarine interaction. But the playability comes at a decided price in the perceived realism of a Swordfish counter sortieing to the 0 box of the Bay of Biscay to heroically protect convoys inbound to England from the Africa route. Meanwhile, perhaps Heavy Cruisers in the 4 box get the jump on some Wolf-Packs with an excellent surprise roll and sink them all with their 8" guns, or perhaps a Battle Cruiser using it's 12-14" guns on the Surface Combat table.

The historical Germans built something like 1100 U-Boats from the 1930s to 1945, and lost about 700 of them, iirc (maybe 900?). At 15 per counter using Ships in Flames, 700 losses is 46 counters. Even at 30 per SUB, that's 21 SUBs sunk. Few games of WiF see that level of commitment with German SUBs.

My advice would be to use some of the "notional" ASW points given to Convoy Points in the newer rules, and also simply up those points considerably, and use the "input die roll" power to model the historical results. The Battle of the Atlantic was a long-term, attritional struggle for both sides, but in WiF, is modeled via the operational/tactical naval combat system. During the "Happy Time" and for quite a while afterwards, the U-Boats basically "find", in WiF parlance, every single turn, but I doubt there were very many historical turns where the Germans were able to take Combined impulses and simultaneously fight the Red Army.

[rkr1958]

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Allied #2. CW & French Convoy Routes.

Here is a summary of the CW and French convoy routes post calling out the reserves. Note that the two idle CW factories are the two factories in Lodz and the 1 unused CP is the Polish CP in Gynda.

It took all 81 CW CP's during setup but I did manage to get all non-oil CW CP's to factories. I certainly understand for a game perspective this was not wise; however, in my simulated reality the CW didn't know that the second world war was about to start. Why wouldn't they use their merchant marine to the fullest extent to maximize vital resource shipments to CW factories. Also in my simulated reality, Mussolini will stay on the sidelines, like he did historically, until Germany has France on the ropes. Now, I know this but as the CW and France I don't, or shouldn't, know this. So, I'm trying to simulate the effect of not knowing with the "Don't provoke a neutral Italy" and several of the garrison rules. The "Don't provoke a neutral Italy" is a rule I follow when playing against another player and one I think is wise. Putting allied ships and planes in the 3 or 4-box and within range of Italian subs, especially in sea areas containing a lot of allied CP's or 1 or 2 transports, is asking for Italy to "surprise" you and wipe out your convoy lines or sink your transports.

Anyway, back to maximizing non-oil CW RP's flow to factories. I'm also attempting a sort of a reverse "Food in Flames". That is penalize the CW if they don't try to get RP's from their oversea colonies to factories. I also found that the two Malaysian, 1 Cyprus, and 1 or 2 of the Indian non-oil RP's routed to Great Britain through the Med at start, are great candidates for trade to France. The convoy routes are already in place and once traded the CP's in Cape St. Vincent and Bay of Biscay used to get them to Great Britain are now freed up for other duties.

In this play, I've also decided to accept the "stubbornness" of the MWiF game engine that produce suboptimal routing. I intend to embrace this madness along with trying to get all non-RP's to factories and actually have fun doing it. Any ineffectiveness I'm going to chalk up to subordinates not fully executing their duties. The solution, I think, is just build more CP's and win the battle of the Atlantic.

[rkr1958]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

The historical Germans built something like 1100 U-Boats from the 1930s to 1945, and lost about 700 of them, iirc (maybe 900?). At 15 per counter using Ships in Flames, 700 losses is 46 counters. Even at 30 per SUB, that's 21 SUBs sunk. Few games of WiF see that level of commitment with German SUBs.

My advice would be to use some of the "notional" ASW points given to Convoy Points in the newer rules, and also simply up those points considerably, and use the "input die roll" power to model the historical results. The Battle of the Atlantic was a long-term, attritional struggle for both sides, but in WiF, is modeled via the operational/tactical naval combat system. During the "Happy Time" and for quite a while afterwards, the U-Boats basically "find", in WiF parlance, every single turn, but I doubt there were very many historical turns where the Germans were able to take Combined impulses and simultaneously fight the Red Army.

Interesting. Another option I have is to edit the game file to give the German's extra BP's to build u-boats and I can even give them, I believe, naval moves to move their subs during a land impulse. I'm not sure how to play all that out though.

ORIGINAL: brian brian
Another key - HEAVY CRUISERS WERE NOT ASW PLATFORMS. On many occasions, the Royal Navy would designate heavy surface ships to escort Convoys - when there was known to be a threat of a sortie of the Kriegsmarine. Even when this was done, the war ships maintained their own ASW escort of destroyers, and sailed at some distance to the actual convoy, because of the risk to the surface ships from submarines. Off Norway on the runs to Murmansk, the RN lost several heavy cruisers to the U-Boats. At a few other points in the war I believe, Cruisers were at time restricted from leaving port I believe, as their ASW escort had to be sent out with convoys as ASW assets were stretched to quite near the breaking point.

I really did want to make this work with light cruiser (i.e., cruisers in flames), but even those ships, as you state, weren't the main ASW platforms. I would love it if somehow destroyer squadrons could be explicitly added. Then the tradeoff between escorting your capital ships versus protecting convoys against the sub threat could play out. Also, my objective is simulate the historical realism within the MWiF game engine and rules and I so on second through I believe doing this would be getting away from that.

With respect to creating the historical feel, I don't want to, or intend to script specific battles or events (e.g., Battle of Midway, French/BEF moving up to the Dyle and leaving the approach through the Ardense light guarded). I'll also accept that things won't/shouldn't play out as a repeat of WW-2. Heck, in an parallel universe with the same starting conditions, I don't expect WW2 would play out exactly like it did in our universe; though it'd be interesting (except for the pain and suffering of 100's of millions of people) to see how it did.