Banzais Don't Make Victories - Anachro (A) vs John 3rd (J) BTS 5.7

[GetAssista]

ORIGINAL: Panther Bait
DD Downes, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
Considering the Downes was in drydock on Dec 7, that torpedo hit was a work of genius. Banzai!!!! [:D]

Well, one bomb hit there was apparently lethal. And torpedo just fell from the sky dinking the deck

[Bif1961]

The dry dock was being flooded at the time.

[Anachro]

John was supposed to arrive back from his trip today and promised that he'd start his own AAR as well, at least in the email I received from him on Thursday. However, I have heard nothing as of yet. That could mean something...or perhaps nothing at all. Hopefully, we'll soon find out. [:)]

[jwolf]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

John was supposed to arrive back from his trip today and promised that he'd start his own AAR as well, at least in the email I received from him on Thursday. However, I have heard nothing as of yet. That could mean something...or perhaps nothing at all. Hopefully, we'll soon find out. [:)]

This sounds like Dan's spoof AAR for John. [:D]

[Anachro]

Dec. 8th, 1941

Not the best of days. My surface forces cause no damage; meanwhile, John seems to have carriers and surface forces everywhere. Surface forces materialize out of thin air to strike the herd just as it leaves Manila. A third carrier force with strong surface escorts appear north of Singkawang and strike shipping at Singapore, and a strong CA fleet appears suddenly at Palembang to deliver troops and launch a bombardment.

No doubt, John plans to quickly take Palembang before I can reinforce it or move much of the fuel out. The sad thing is I was planning to place mines, but not this quickly! If anything to me, the first two turns show early signs of an aggressive move on the DEI before making aggressive pushes towards either the SoPac or CenPac. We already know he is quickly moving to take Rabaul, what could be next?


Locations of KBs + circles represent landings and known enemy transport invasion forces

[Anachro]

Pearl Harbor

The cruiser task forces out of Pearl Harbor fail to make contact with enemy carriers, but luckily John has moved KB far north and it is thus unable to strike back at my ships. However, that fact that KB did not move west as you would normally expect might mean he is using it to cover future landings over the coming days against Midway. I will keep a careful eye on this.

Taking Midway on its own is strategically useless and it can quickly be taken back. In my mind, it is only worthwhile if you plan to make a future move on Hawaii and Pearl Harbor itself. We’ll see.

[Anachro]

Philippines

A cruiser task force appears off of Manila and sinks a number of ships. AS Canopus goes down, as does the ARD Dewey. The damaged SS Sculpin also takes a torpedo from an enemy submarine. These hit my heart deeply. Only hope right now is that the other AS is undetected and unmolested, but it is literally one hex away from an enemy task force! Herd will be dispersed more and some will try to hide in ports he might not expect.



Boise and her DDs escape unarmed (after a number of bombing attacks) and are currently situated just west of Babeldaob. I can either run them south towards Rabaul or Southwest towards Darwin. Not sure which is better at the moment and they would probably still be under air threat from LBA or a full speed KB2 tomorrow.



The British DDs from Hong Kong are running low on fuel and will need to go to Miri to get some. This puts them between a rock and a hard place. Enemy cruisers just to the east and enemy CVs to the west. My undetected AS will try to go full speed somewhere. Any suggestions?

[Anachro]

Dutch East Indies & Singapore

A bit of a shock today with a third KB appearing north of Singkawang and it strikes a Singapore whose CAP is diverted fully to escort duty for a later offensive strike, sinking a number of cargo ships and some transports. Kuantan falls today and it appears John managed to land a whole division there! I suffer more destroyed troops but he does take ~900 casualties to my ~500. In a bit of good news, the air force from Singapore managed to strike the transports at Kuantan and sinks two Hakone Maru-class transports. Both are at least reported sunk, with one confirmed sunk in the combat replay.

Farther south, strong cruiser task force lands troops at Palembang and will try to take it very early before quickly moving on towards Sorabaja. They don’t attack my tankers loading fuel, so I manage to siphon some fuel from the place to deny it to the enemy. I expect these to quickly go down tomorrow as they are sitting in the same hex as the enemy. The only hope is that after a bombardment and minor battle in which DM Thracian was sunk, the enemy task force is low on ammo. Force Z was moving south and is now southeast of Palembang.



With KB3’s sudden appearance and the enemy cruiser task force at Palembang, a number of transports are in jeopardy and it will make evacuation of troops from Singapore difficult. Might need to start thinking about flying out some just in case. Fighters will now be dedicated to defensive CAP and more rushed in once loading potentially begins.

[Anachro]

Ships Sunk:


PB Eiko Maru also took 2 torps from a Dutch sub and is most likely sunk.

Conclusion

He has a lot more carriers than I thought! The addition of two potent smaller KBs significantly increases the strategic possibilities for the Japanese in the early game. He can essentially cover all or most of his bases in restricting options of retreat in the Philippines, Singapore, and the DEI while also striking Pearl Harbor.

I will accelerate my garrisoning and defensive buildup in the SoPac. I still plan to evacuate troops from Singapore. He cannot keep his KB there forever. This will be reevaluated depending on his future intentions once shown and my ability to extract endangered troops. India needs to be reinforced. The question of how is up in the air until further developments happen.


Addendum: fast transport taskforces are indeed fast

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Dec. 8th, 1941

Not the best of days. My surface forces cause no damage; meanwhile, John seems to have carriers and surface forces everywhere. Surface forces materialize out of thin air to strike the herd just as it leaves Manila. A third carrier force with strong surface escorts appear north of Singkawang and strike shipping at Singapore, and a strong CA fleet appears suddenly at Palembang to deliver troops and launch a bombardment.

No doubt, John plans to quickly take Palembang before I can reinforce it or move much of the fuel out. The sad thing is I was planning to place mines, but not this quickly! If anything to me, the first two turns show early signs of an aggressive move on the DEI before making aggressive pushes towards either the SoPac or CenPac. We already know he is quickly moving to take Rabaul, what could be next?

If John follows the previous pattern of his games, he will expand as far and as quickly as possible, leaving lots of Allied bases in his rear. Use that against him.
He also loves the possibility of Autovictory so he will go for high value bases like Noumea, Suva and Pago-Pago.
He does not think defensively so he will likely be late getting his rear defences and intermediate speed bumps established. He likes to play far forward.

[BBfanboy]

That Transport TF with the CS is likely headed to Ambon. That is where I would send Houston and Boise. If that turns out to be wrong they might fuel up before the run to Australia, or head for Horn Island straits and go to SOPAC.

I would turn that AS around and head north around the Philippines. He has guards on his transport TFs but might not even ben planning to invade Luzon for a few weeks so you might slip the AS by. His bombers will be concentrating on Clark Field and Manila.

EDIT: Looks like Force Z is in good position to loop around Borneo and be the anvil to Houston/Boise's Hammer on that CS/Transport TF.

[Anachro]

Dec. 9th, 1941

Bad news as John proceeds to take Palembang without any damage to the facilities. Moreover, he has landed a full division at Mersing while also putting paras along the train tracks at Malacca to prevent my troops from quickly strat moving down to Singapore. The British troops on the Malayan peninsula are in real danger of being cut off. I lose the CL Dauntless to night surface engagement off of Palembang, as well as several big TKs. The British DDs heading towards Miri are sunk by enemy surface forces. John also managed to get his fast transport force to Rabaul to land troops before I can gather the forces down there to react. Will still try an intercept if possible.

The only good news is that John has a small force of 2 BCs and 1-2 DDs caught between a 6x Dutch DD fleet, Force Z, and a 2xCA / 6xDD fleet. I might try to get it engaged and see if I could snag one. KB2 is nearby however. Boise and her escorts failed to intercept the enemy invasion fleet, but did manage to make a good escape to the south. Good thing too, because that fleet is being escorted by KB2. If the DDs and CA TF can manage to cause damage through intercept, perhaps Force Z can catch up and sink the 2 BCs outright. However, I might want to preserve them and try to get a surface action with carriers instead in the crowded waters of the DEI.



KB Headed for the West Coast?
KB appears to have refuled and now is heading in a direction towards the west coast. Either he is planning to invade there or he is planning a raid of some sort. Two immediate targets strike my mind: 1) he will raid up and down San Francisco and Los Angeles and try to sink the various ships that inhabit those waters; 2) He could be going for the 5 damaged BBs that start out under repair in or near Seattle. We'll see, but I am already moving my ships around in anticipation. ASW is up and working along the west coast as well and has already run into one of two submarines. He tried to catch the Saratoga south of Sand Diego and she will be heading to safer unknown waters till I get things in order (and improve my ASW).

[BBfanboy]

Getting an intercept on carriers is quite difficult unless they have a very slow ship in their TF, you have a good DL on them (from night naval search by FP) and react settings. If your other two TFs use up the BC TFs ammo, they would be less risky pickings for Force Z.

The 5 BBs at Seattle would indeed be a big draw for John. He loves to raid and he loves to sink major ships with little risk to his own.
Move some extra AA to Seattle and enough fighters to all the nearby bases to have more than KB. Chewing up his air strikes would be a coup!

Unless transports are spotted I doubt he could arrange a significant invasion this early. A Regiment or two at major industrial cities should be enough to hold them.

[Anachro]

I haven't gotten the replay yet, but John did send me this cryptic message by email:

Got the turn run and am doing orders. Am trying to get a feel for your play style...You surprised me some this turn!

Will post more when I find out just what it means later tonight. I elected to try and sink some of his BCs using a combination of the CA TF, DDs, and Force Z. I also sent CL Marblehead and some DDs to try and intercept his CS force. Boise is low on fuel and retiring to Darwin. I also elected to strat bomb Palembang with anything I could find as a punishment for taking it so early without much air cover to protect it.

@BBfanboy
Yup, I'm moving some AA, regiments, and fighters north, but I should have ample ground protection at least. Haven't decided yet if I want to move the BBs and risk him reconing all my ports up there to find which one I hid them in or if I should put them all in one to concentrate protection and coverage.

[Bearcat2]

In this scenario; you might be wise to just let him have everything for the first 6 months; he outproduces you in A/C, he has 6 CV's, 7 CVL's and 3 CVE's at start; and he knows where everything you have starts.

[Anachro]

Dec. 10, 1941

A number of engagements take place that are quite surprising. The CS invasion fleet lands at Ternate instead of Ambon and the Marblehead-backed force sent to confront it instead manages to run into a surface engagement with KB3! No serious damage suffered to KB3, but one carrier takes a shell hit and is listed as "on fire." In the Makassar Strait, there are several engagements between the enemy BC fleet and Dutch DDs and an Allied CA task force. The Allies come off worse and lose 4-5 old DDs in a series of night and day engagements.

The good news is that Force Z appears one hex away from the BCs at the end of the turn and can hopefully engage a force that is very low on ammo during the night. It will attempt to do so before running south. The DEI is getting a bit too hot and it appears the two KBs will try to link up and deny the waters of the DEI to Allied intervention. I am sending most surface forces south to Darwin before transit to the SoPac and further division later. Still figuring out if I can extract troops from Singapore, but if not, they will hopefully all arrive at Singapore to hold it for some time.

In the eastern Pacific, KB is heading towards the west coast and is currently situated to strike towards San Francisco, Los Angeles, or San Diego. There is also the possibility it can turn north towards Seattle. Local ships in port are fleeing to safer waters while fighters are brought in to reinforce CAP. Hopefully, we can kill some KB pilots.

Elsewhere, Allied planners already begin discussions around how to wrest away the initiative, at least for a few weeks or months to buy time...

Day Time Surface Combat, near Donggala at 68,97, Range 16,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
BC Hiei, Shell hits 2
BC Kirishima, Shell hits 3
DD Kayobuki
DD Mazabuki, Shell hits 1

Allied Ships
CA Houston
CA Chicago
DD Alden, Shell hits 1
DD Barker, Shell hits 1
DD Bulmer, Shell hits 4, and is sunk
DD Edsall, Shell hits 2
DD John D. Edwards, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
DD John D. Ford, Shell hits 2, on fire

Day Time Surface Combat, near Donggala at 68,97, Range 20,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
BC Hiei
BC Kirishima, Shell hits 5
DD Kayobuki, Shell hits 1
DD Mazabuki, Shell hits 1

Allied Ships
CA Houston, Shell hits 2
CA Chicago, Shell hits 1
DD Alden, on fire
DD Barker, on fire
DD Edsall, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD John D. Ford, Shell hits 1, heavy fires

Day Time Surface Combat, near Obi at 76,106, Range 13,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CV Hiryu
CV Soryu
CS Chitose
CS Chiyoda
BC Chichibu, Shell hits 2
CVL Tokachi, Shell hits 1, on fire
CVL Kushiro, Shell hits 1
DD Kuroshio
DD Oyashio
DD Hatsukaze
DD Natsushio
DD Hayashio, Shell hits 1
DD Amatsukaze

Allied Ships
CL Marblehead, Shell hits 7, on fire
DD Stewart, Shell hits 2
DD Parrott, Shell hits 1
DD Pillsbury, Shell hits 2, on fire

[jwolf]

Did the Japanese spot Force Z yet?

[DOCUP]

Force Z is in a bad position KB 2 can sprint south and be in position to hit it. KB? also move south west and be in range to strike Force Z and other ships. Just my thought. Enjoying the AAR. Keep it up.

[CaptHaggard]

Anachro—

Enjoying this AAR—great graphics and op summaries!

Hag

[Anachro]

@jwolf Yes, unfortunately.

@DOCUP Well aware, but I'll need to take the risk and hope for the best when I get the turn back. In retrospect, I probably should have moved them to attack the BCs and then kept them moving east, as I doubt his carriers would go that way, but we'll see what happens.

Starting Japanese Carriers
I've decided to do a little analysis of the Japanese and Allied OOBs. The Japanese start with:

6 CVs (2 Akagi Class, 2 Hiryu Class, 2 Shokaku class)
7 CVLs (2 Ryukaku Class, 1 Ryujo Class, 2 Zuiho Class, 2 G.6 Class)

Beyond the fact that the Japanese receive an additional Akagi, with the Kaga being a BC or something, they receive a two new types of CVLs. The Ryukaku Class and the G.6 Class. The funny thing about these is that they are better in every way compared to the historical counterparts. They are faster and can keep up with fast carrier task forces and have significant AA defenses in later upgrades. In other words, they are very powerful ships meant to amplify a carrier task force model (2 CV, 2 CVLs). The Ryukaku, for instance, gets radar in early 1943 and starts out with an AA rating of ~450 that rises to ~2500 by late '44. The weakness would be no armor whatsoever.



More interestingly are the G.6 CVLs, which not only are very fast at 34 knots, but have a pretty crazy upgrade path. Starting at ~30 aircraft capacity, when upgraded these things are also armored in a way that's roughly equivalent to a Shokaku-class CV (140/60/25). However, the scary thing is these can be sent in for refit in August, 1942 to upgrade them to full CVs with a speed of 32 knots. Magically, their a/c capacity doubles. Yamamoto sure is a genius.



Japanese Carriers Additions
In addition to the above the Japanese through mid '44 get:

8 CVLs (3 Chitose Conversions, 1 Chitose-class, 1 Ryuho-class, 3 Aso-class)
6 CVs (2 Junyo-class, 3 Shokaku-class, 1 Shokaku-Kai class)
+ 3 Adatara-class CS Ships

The Aso-class is fast and has a good fighter complement to augment CAP and provide ASW duties. The Shokaku-kai class is an improved Shokaku-class with additional a/c capacity of ~80.




The additional CS Adatara-class ships cannot upgrade to CVL and I assume are meant to act as additional scouting escorts for Japanese carrier fleets so they can devote more of their carrier planes to an actual strike package, avoiding the mistakes of Midway while reaping the benefits of a full offensive strike.



Conclusion: By mid-1944, the Japanese Navy can theoretically field 14 fleet carriers and 13 light carriers and 4 escort carriers for a combined aircraft capacity ~660 fighters and ~760 bombers. These numbers can of course be shifted around to enlarge the number of fighters for protection. When these numbers are added to the fact that this mod makes the George and Jack CV-capable, it is a very potent theoretical force. A Japanese fan boy's wet dream, indeed. I'm not really sure how realistic it is even assuming some changes to the treaty and a more forceful control by Yamamoto of the direction of the navy (Midway revealed that Yamamoto was still very much enthralled by the big guns of the battleships and saw a purpose for them even as he advocated for air power).

On top of all this, the Japanese start with 6 BCs and 2 CBs. They can build an additional 4 Yamato-class BBs and 4 Fuji-class CBs. They have a lot of different ships on which they can spend their scarce navy shipyard points.