Witness to World War 2.

[rkr1958]

August 1939. Germany (1/4).

Once again believing that the British and French will back down Hitler has ordered the invasion of Poland for September 1st. Germany staffs at OKW, OKH, OKM and OKL worked night and day to translates the Fuhrer’s invasion order into a reality. The Polish invasion is given the code name, “Case White.”

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August 1939. Germany (2/4).

In the East, two army groups and one army supported by the majority of the Luftwaffe are positioned to deal a quick and lethal blow to the Polish army. In Prussia is Army Group North commanded by von Bock, east of the Oder River is Army Group Center commanded by von Rundstedt and in Czechoslovakia is Germany’s 10th army commanded by von Leeb. The specific allocations of ground and air forces allocated to these army groups/army are:

(1) Army Group North – HQ-I (von Bock), 3 infantry corps, 1 motorized corps, 1 mechanized corps, 1 150-mm arty div, 2 Stuka and 2 F/B air flotillas.

(2) Army Group Center – HQ-A (von Rundstedt), 4 infantry corps, 1 pioneer (engineering) division, 1 home guard (garrison) corps, 1 infantry division, 1 motorized corps, 2 armor corps, 1 AT division, 1 AA division, 3 Luftwaffe bomber and 2 fighter flotillas.

(3) 10th Army – HQ-I (von Leeb), 2 infantry corps and 1 mountain corps.

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August 1939. Germany (3/4).

While Hitler’s promise of no British or French inference in Case White is highly appearing, German military planners must prepare for the worse (i.e., Britain and France do go to war against German). On the border with France and opposite the French forces in the Maginot line, Germany has positioned the 15th Army composed of two active home guard (garrison) corps and backed by a number of reserve corps, which can quickly be mobilized if war with the West should breakout.

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August 1939. Germany (4/4).

Finally, on the border with Denmark sits the German 12th Army. This army is tasked, if war should break out, with the swift conquest of Denmark and for closing the Skagerrak and Kattegat straights from the North Sea to the Baltic, thereby preventing allied support of Poland through the Baltic.

Now in regards to possible allied support through the Black Sea and Rumania, Germany is relying on the Soviet conquest of Eastern Poland to shut that down.

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August 1939. USSR (1/4).

Directly on the Polish border with the Soviet Union sits 150,000 men in the 2nd cavalry corps and the 17th field army. In reserve and in position to strike at Lvov, if necessary, sits another 100,000 men in the 3rd Soviet mechanized army.

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August 1939. USSR (2/4).

On the Rumania border directly opposite Bessarabia sits an entire Soviet Front commanded by General Timoshenko. While obscenely positioned there to support the Soviet acquisition of Eastern Poland and to “strongly” discourage French or British help to Poland through the Black Sea and Rumania, their real mission is the “bloodless” seizure of Bessarabia. The timing of which is to be determined directly by Stalin. In support of Timoshenko’s front is the entire Red Army force in Europe, which includes 8 factors of strategic bombing ready to wreak havoc on Hitler’s oil supply if Rumania should resist the Soviet’s claim on Bessarabia.

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October 1939. USSR (3/4).

Fresh off his victory over the Japanese 6th army in the Battle of Khalkhin Gol, sits General Zhukov and the newly formed, and still growing, Soviet Middle East Front. Stalin plans to take advantage of the newly signed Molotov-Tojo agreement, which has expanded into the Japanese-Soviet non-aggression pact, to “acquire” additional oil resources to fuel his every growing military. Like Bessarabia, the timing of Zhukov’s invasion of Persia will be determined directly by Joseph Stalin.

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October 1939. USSR (4/4).

Japanese-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact. Effective date Sep/Oct 1939 and, unless renewed, “breakable” in 1940 and on but only if the required garrison ratio is achieved. Current garrison values are 5 for the Japanese and 3 ½ for the Soviets. The equation for determining whether or not a pact is “breakable” is:

BREAK = (GAR + min(GAR,OFF_CHITS)) – 2*(MX*OPP_GAR + min(MX*OPP_GAR,DEF_CHITS))

GAR = your garrison total, OFF_CHITS = sum of all your offensive (face-up) chits on the border, OPP_GAR = opponents garrison total, DEF_CHITS = sum of all your opponents defensive (face-down) chits on the border and MX = inf in the year the pact was signed, =2 first year after, =1 second year after, =1/2 third year after, =1/3 fourth year after and 1/4 fifth year after).

The neutrality pact remains in force if BREAK is < 0 and is breakable by the side that can achieve a BREAK of 0 or higher.

[rkr1958]

August 1939. Japan (1/3).

For Japan their only goal is to get the resources and oil necessary to run their factories, increase, equip and fuel their military. With their recent humiliating defeat at the hands of the Soviets on the Manchuria-Mongolian border Japan’s expansionist plans now turn back to China for more resources. However, protecting those resources they already have and ensuring they get to Japanese factories is of equal importance as acquiring new ones.

With all this talk of expansion we start of in Northern China and the newly forming Army Group under the command of General Terauchi. The current mission for Terauchi’s Army Group is defensive. His objectives are to defend, secure against partisans and maintain the flow to Japanese factories of the three resource points in his area of responsibility.

In addition to his HQ-I and the 2nd Japanese motorized army in transition from Korea to his area of responsibility, his army group is expected to grow as more Japanese units become available.

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August 1939. Japan (2/3).

In central China is an army group under the command of General Umezu whose objective is the capture and transport to factories of the Antimony resource point northwest of Hengyang.

The responsibility for Southern China is to be given to a new army group that will be formed under Admiral Yamamoto.

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August 1939. Japan (3/3).

Yamamoto, once his army group is established in Southern China, will be given the objective for the capture and transport to factory of the Tin resource point southwest of Kweilin. As operations proceed against the Nationalist Chinese in central and southern China it’s expected that General Umezu and Admiral Yamamoto army groups will merge. As senior, Admiral Yamamoto will be given top command of this merged army group and General Umezu will support him as his deputy commander.

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May 1939. Italy (1/2).

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August 1939. Italy (2/2).

Mussolini has pledge Italy's unconditional support to Hitler and Germany. However, for now he's content to sit it out "looking" for any spoils that may happen his way.

However, while sitting it out, Mussolini isn't above a bit of saber rattling. Italy has deployed an entire army on their border with France and one in Libya on their border with Egypt.

The army deployed on the French border is led by General Graziani and is an elite mechanized force composed of HQ-A, mech, mot, mtn and AT div supported by 2 Italian bomber groups and 2 fighter groups.

The Italian army deployed in Libya on the Egyptian border and is composed of HQ-I, 2 inf, AT div.

Also, not to be forgotten is East Africa. Not the local Ethipoian terr unit eyeing Djibouti and the French Somaliland. Is French Somaliland to be the "easy pickens" that Mussolini is after?

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August 1939. CW (1/3).

Great Britain. Plymouth serves as the port of call for Great Britain's Home Fleet. It also serves as the base for the XV Mech and IV Mot corps, who along with Lord Gort and his HQ-I based in Plymouth comprise Britain's 1st BEF Army.

If war should breakout with Germany over Poland, the exact deployment of this 1st BEF Army is intentionally muddled.
(1) Is it to be rushed through the Baltic to directly assist Poland? Though, this seems very risky and unlikely given a fragile and unstable supply line through the Baltic.
(2) Is it to deploy to Denmark if Germany tries to close the Baltic and that avenue of support from the allies to Poland?
(3) Or, is it to deploy to France and start preparing for a repeat of the Great War?
Honestly, none of these options sound appealing to the average solider of the 1st BEF Army.

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August 1939. CW (2/3).

The Med. As important as stopping Germany and supporting Poland, Great Britain is part of a greater empire ... the Commonwealth (CW). And, maintaining the CW is of the same, or even greater importance, as supporting Poland. To do this Great Britain must keep open and protect it's shipping lanes to it's other partner countries in the CW (i.e., Canada, Republic of South Africa, India, Australia and New Zealand). A number of those "shipping lanes" pass through the Mediterranean. The First Sea Lord of the Admiralty, Winston Churchill places great importance on securing and protecting key British bases in the Mediterranean to include Gibraltar, Malta, Egypt, Palestine and, of course, the Suez Canal.

Great Britain's Mediterranean fleet is based at Gibraltar, which is currently defended only by regimental (i.e., notional) size units. The plan is to immediately beef up Gibraltar's defense by bring in a territorial corps from Cape Tape, South Africa using the "drafted" Queen Elizabeth and Queen Mary "luxury" liners to transport them.

Malta plays host to Great Britain's submarine fleet and a battleship/heavy cruiser division. Because of Malta's importance in the Central Med it is defended by a Royal Engineering motorized division who are backed by a division of 25 pdr artillery guns.

Egypt is the buffer between a potential enemy in Italy and both the Suez Canal and their Middle Eastern Oil fields. Both of which are vitally critical to the health of Great Britain and the Commonwealth.

[rkr1958]

August 1939. CW (3/3).

East Africa. The port of Aden is the gateway between Great Britain's Mediterranean possessions and their possessions in the Near East (i.e., India, Singapore). Currently housed there is Great Britain's Near East Fleet. Of note, is the absence of aircraft for the two aircraft carriers in that fleet.

India. Because of the difficulty of rooting out any partisan that may take root in Bombay (it takes a major campaign to do so), garrison of Bombay and the Indian factory there is a considered a must. Fortunately for Great Britain there was an Indian MIL available (at setup) for that task. However, plans were in place to transport the 2nd Inf division via SCS (i.e., CA) and deployed in Great Britain to the Arabian Sea and then offload that division into Bombay if that MIL hadn't been available (at setup).

Malaya. Great Britain's Asiatic fleet consisting of a heavy cruiser division is based in the newly naval base at Singapore. Because of the importance of this base and the resources in Malaya, the CW V infantry corps has been based there to provide defense of these resources and Singapore against the threat of anti-government guerrillas.

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September 1, 1939.

September 1st 1939 is generally marked as the date for the beginning of World War 2. Though, Japan's been at war since September 18, 1931, almost 8-years earlier), when they invaded Manchuria.

[rkr1958]

September 3, 1939.

Though one could argue that the true start date for the Second World War was September 3rd 1939.

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Sep/Oct 1939. Case White. The Invasion of Poland.

SO39, Axis #1. Surprise Impulse:

German planning and execution was meticulous on the surprise impulse. There were six objectives on this surprise impulse, all of which were achieved at 100%.

1. Ground strike and disrupt the Warsaw stack. For this strike the Luftwaffe assigned a 5 strength Stuka and a 3 factor bomber air flotilla. p0 is a key value in the ground strike estimated effectiveness calculation and is defined as the probability that any given unit is disorganized. For this ground strike against Warsaw in clear terrain, fine weather and during the surprise impulse, p0 = 1 - (0.5^2)*(0.7^2) = 0.8775. This means that for any given unit the chance that this ground strike will disorganize it is 87.75%. Given a p0 = 0.8775 and for the stack of three Polish units in Warsaw, the chance of disorganizing (all) 3 is 67.57%, 2 of 3 is 28.30%, (only) 1 of 3 is 3.95% and (god forbid) 0 of 3 is 0.18%. The execution of the strike was flawless and resulted in all three units being disorganized.

2. Ground strike and disrupt the Lodz stack. The Luftwaffe assigned a 4 factor Stuka and a 3 factor fighter-bomber air flotilla to this mission. The allocated air units gave a p0 = 1 - (0.6^2)*(0.7^2) = 0.8236, or 82.36% chance that a given unit is disorganized. For p0 = 0.8236, the chance that the ground strike disorganized both units was 67.83%, 1 of 2 was 29.06% and none was 3.11%. As in the case of the Warsaw ground strike the execution was flawless and both Polish ground units were disorganized. This and the Warsaw ground strike used all four air missions available to Germany during a land impulse.

3. Capture and open the Polish Corridor between Germany and Prussia, capture Danzig and overrun the Polish fleet based there. This task was given to Germany's 3rd infantry division who had no problem completing it. The overrun of the Polish fleet at Danzig resulted in the scuttling (i.e., destruction) of the CP; however, the Polish destroyer flotilla did manage to escape and make its way to England.

4. Blitz and destroy, or shatter, the Polish Tarmow cavalry corps without losses or disorganization. The Blitz was accomplished by including Germany's XL Mech corps in the attack. The bloodless victory (i.e., destroy/shatter with no losses or disorganization) was accomplished by assigning enough factors to give +19 or higher (on the Blitz table). For this attack the Germans needed at least 28.5 factors, they used 30 which gave them a +20 odds on the Blitz table. This attack was automatic and resulted in the destruction of the Polish cavalry corps.

5. Assault and destroy the Polish Modlin infantry army, without loss or disorganization, and capture Poznan. For this task Germany needed a minimum of +21 on the assault table, which required a minimum of 42 to 44 attack factors, depending on whether or not they cancelled the -1 modifier for attacking a city. This modifier was cancelled by using an HQ-A in the assault which was made by 42 combat factors. This resulted in an automatic, bloodless victory and the capture of Poznan.

6. Blitz and destroy/shatter the Polish Karpaty infantry army, without loss or disorganization. Germany's XLVIII armor corps was used in the attack to make it a blitz. To get the +19 or better (blitz) odds, Germany needed to attack with a minimum of 28.5 factors. They blitzed with 30+ factors and (automatically) destroyed the Polish infantry army.

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Sep/Oct 1939. The Conquest of Poland.

SO39. Axis #3.7. The attack on Lodz. The fine weather across the map continues. The inner pincers of Germany's blitzkrieg attack on Poland converge on the Polish city of Lodz and the two defending infantry armies disorganized there. Germany is able to manage a +20.111 attack on the assault table. These attack odds ensure victory but leaves a 0.9% chance for loss, which in this case would be the 1st engineer division because he's used to "un-half" one of the corps attacking across a river. Also, this 0.9% chance result would result in the disorganization of half of the attackers, which would be sizable (i.e., 7 of the 14 attacking units). However, 3 German HQ units stand ready to reorganize units if that should happen. Germany misses the fractional (only 11.1%) but rolls a 12, resulting in a final attack of 32. Lodz falls without loss or disorganization.

SO39. Axis #5.8. The attack on Warsaw. The fine weather has turned to rain in the arctic and north temperate. The outer pincers of Germany's blitzkrieg meet at Warsaw and prepare for an assault on the three units defending Warsaw. Even with 18 attackers, use of the 1st engineer division to "un-half" one attacker and +2 in HQ support, Germany can only manage to get +17.7 on the assault table. While victory is nearly certain it isn't 100%. There's a 0.3% chance that this assault will fail to take Warsaw. There's a 4.9% chance that German will take a loss, which again would have to be their 1st engineer division. There's even a 1% chance that Germany will lose 2 units. And there's a 7.2% chance that half of the 18 attackers will be disorganized. The assault on Warsaw goes off without a hitch. Germany make their fractional and then rolled a 15, which gave a final assault result of 33. The only impact to Germany was that Rundstedt's HQ-A became disorganized because of the +2 HQ support he provided.

The capture of Warsaw brings Case White and the conquest of Poland to a wildly successful conclusion.