New Scenario for Testing: Mediterranean Fury 2 – Syrian Surprise.

[Gunner98]

A bit trigger happy perhaps - not that that's likely [;)]

[Vulcan607]

Well things are going ok for me I have a U2 over Israel and I've taken a few SAM sites out and hit a runway with tomahawks. Lots of enemy raids shot down, the problem is I don't have enough aircraft to get them all with the hornets having a long transit it falls too the RAF to intercept the raids. My biggest problem is Leahy and now my type 42 is out of missiles. Andromeda is still in the fight but she's taken light damage and has only 2 exocet and 2 sea wolf left. The prompt arrival of the hornets, phantoms, tornadoes and Leahy's missiles saved her from the ASHMs but the L39s got a piece of her unfortunately for the escorting mig29s they got too close to her and she got them unfortunately this allowed the l39s to damage her while she reloaded. The Turks on the other hand have lost a few F4s 1 f104 and 2 radars in return they have killed a load of l39, mig29 and mig21s so a good trade, but it almost spelt disaster when a lone mig21 flew around the patriots blind spot and got a few missiles off at the sentry who dived for the deck while jinking left and right successfully avoiding the missiles. Israel has fired at last check 43 patriots sometimes at migs trying to get the tomahawks well inside Syria which has helped a few missiles get through to their target!

[Gunner98]

Thanks for the update. Some of the tweaks that will come with the next version:

-I'm going to put in a special action to send a Hurc to Akrotiri or Incirlik with Hornet A2A ammo. Only one with a high cost if the Hurc gets hit but that might help the basing issue. (The C-130 will be on a non-player side)

-Limit the Israeli WRA for their Patriots a bit

-Thin out a few of the Syrian strikes, spread them out a little as well.

-I'll fix the Israeli fueling issue and a few of the other bits you guys have picked up.

-I may impose a no-nav zone around Israel so the player cannot hid too blatantly behind a trigger happy neutral.

Hope to have something out this weekend.

B

[Vulcan607]

Just had a thought no SAR at Akatori and non in Turkey might be an issue when it gets updated to chains of war

[Gunner98]

Hadn't considered putting in the SAR script. Will do that.

B

[Gunner98]

but the L39s got a piece of her

With hundreds of high end aircraft flying around: F-16, F-18, Tornado, MiG-29s, Mig-23MLDs and it the little Czech training aircraft that gets through! Love it!

[Gunner98]

I'm going to put in a special action to send a Hurc to Akrotiri or Incirlik with Hornet A2A ammo. Only one with a high cost if the Hurc gets hit but that might help the basing issue. (The C-130 will be on a non-player side)

Thinking this through a bit. Saving these ships would be pretty high on Comd 6th Fleets priority list, which is a pretty long list at the moment. So the Hurc will be under player control and there will be a Brit VC-10 at Gib and a C-141 at Rota also under the players control able to deliver ammo.

Losing one of these will be almost = to losing a ship though...

[Gunner98]

OK here is a new version:

Fixed up a bunch of the errors you guys picked up, thanks,
Added in some transport AC for the USMC, RAF, Greeks and USAF. They are under player control but I am tempted to put them on a non player side. Thoughts?
Tightened up a bunch of the Syrian missions
Added SAR script and a few SAR helos
Turned Chains of War on
Put a NNav zone around Israel/Jordan
Added some Brit tankers, fout a use for those old Victors!
Those Spanish Frigates found thier way into the Med
Adjsuted Israel's WRA so they shouldn't be dumping all the Patriot shots into Syria, fixed their refueling as well
Trying out Whicker's new random unit placement. Not changing it up too much but perhaps just enough that the SSV doesn't nab you from the start.


As always looking forward to your comments.

[Vulcan607]

Great will give it a go tomorrow on the old one its getting rather difficult to stop the raids now one always makes it through now even had the nimrod getting 2 fritters, my main issue though was Andromeda lost her sea wolf so even the l39s had to be intercepted.
hopefully this will not happen when I give this new version a go.
And lastly those poor cadet mig 21s right at the back not expecting anything and a load of Turkish f16s turn up shoot a load down along with a mig25. oh and as a foot note Israeli patriot count at 70 and 6 IHAWK!

[Gunner98]

Andromeda should have been retired by now and scenarios like this where she is caught flat footed really show why.

I was debating if the Turk F-16s should be Veteran or just Average, but left them as most NATO being Vets because of the advanced training they do.


Will likely bump some of the MiG-29s up to Average from Cadet, and some of the Soviet Mig-23s up to Veteran to give the Ships a bit more protection.


Curious if you've played the early Northern Fury scenarios. Talk about difficult to stop the raids [8D]

Glad your enjoying it.


B

[Primarchx]

ORIGINAL: Gunner98

...
I was debating if the Turk F-16s should be Veteran or just Average, but left them as most NATO being Vets because of the advanced training they do.


Will likely bump some of the MiG-29s up to Average from Cadet, and some of the Soviet Mig-23s up to Veteran to give the Ships a bit more protection.

...

That reminds me of the debate about giving units proficiency values in Command's early days. There was the idea that a crew qualitative value was too subjective and might cause controversy. Ah, those halcyon days... [:D]

[Gunner98]

Ah, those halcyon days...

[:D] I guess we jsut take some things for granted now... I think there was a debate about the side posture 'unfriendly' as well...

What's it been 5 years! Good run.

[AndrewJ]

Good grief, that's a long list of Syrians. [X(]

Air Defence! I need Air Defence!

(The Bain in Spain causes me a migraine...)

Edit: and if there's a Slava off Latakia, then we're all in range right now.

[Vulcan607]

Switched all my hornets to air to air load outs instead of anti ship for that very reason no missile is going to get past that fleet right now.
Though it’s quite easy to attack Syria from the rear I’ve got a PR9 and U2 over their airfields with constant fighter cover just for too wait a few hours for the f4e’s with gbu10s to get ready

[Gunner98]

Bain in Spain causes me a migraine.

It does do that! A lot quicker to fly in from Torrejon than CONUS... Such is politics.


B

[Vulcan607]

don’t launch a 32 tomahawk missile strike as soon as Syria goes hostile all their fighters that were in the air during the strike come flying towards the Iowa and destroy your fighters with sheer weight of numbers. Will try it again when I have more than 5 fighters on patrol over the fleet

[AndrewJ]

A quick question: Had you intended the F-18s from Greece to be on Quick Turnaround after they arrive at Akrotiri?

[UsherBhai]

Hello everyone,,
I couldn't resist I have started a game of Syrian Surprise, so far so good, haven't found any bug.

A couple of things about Tamales:
The M-113 equipped with TOW at Guantanamo still miss the link to fire them, I have added a couple of TOW mounts to the unit and fired them.
At Tyndall air force there are no an/alq-184(v) and an/asq-213 pods to re-equip the F-16s with the HARM loadouts, have added them in the magazine.

Keep on rolling ahead like this

[Gunner98]

A quick question: Had you intended the F-18s from Greece to be on Quick Turnaround after they arrive at Akrotiri?

Yes, but I think that if you are not careful you will exhaust the ammo you can ship there.

[AndrewJ]

Having invaded Turkey last week, it’s time to step back a couple of days in simulation time, and defend myself from a surprise Syrian attack!


THE SITUATION

With the sudden possibility of hostilities breaking out, I’ve been given the responsibility of keeping my forces safe until the situation can be determined.

On land I’m in charge of two main airbases, on at Incirlik in southern Turkey (where my AIM-120 carrying F-16s live), and one at Akrotiri on the south coast of Cyprus (where I have an assortment of British fighters and support planes, in small quantities). I’ve also got control of two other Turkish bases, with a pile of old F-4s, lesser F-16s, and F-104s. Far off in Greece there are some F-5s, F-18s, and a large number of A-7s, which I’m told are being put under my control, but of course nothing is ready yet. I can forward base them to Akrotiri, if I want, but I have no ammo for them there, so it will be ‘bring your own ammo’ for a single strike, if I do fly them in.

At sea I have a Turkish destroyer and a little Turkish sub on the N side of Cyprus. To the south I have a scattering of mid-grade assets spread out on an exercise. These include three very capable SSNs, one of the Marines’ Harrier carriers, the venerable battleship Iowa, and the long-range SAM power of the Leahy (the next best thing if you can’t have an Aegis cruiser). They are supported by lesser warships, most of which are actually pretty good, although the old Andromeda and Descubertia are definitely low on the power curve. I’ve also got a bunch of vulnerable amphibs along with the little carrier, and a number of oilers and replenishment ships, all of which need to be defended.

The Russians are in Latakia, where they have based a modest airgroup. Fortunately, it looks like they’ve got nothing truly modern, and are operating a little over a dozen MiG-23s, but their pilots should be good. Their surface force is just fine, based around a Moskva and the Moskva – not confusing at all! The old helicopter carrier is interesting as a technical experiment, but other than a flock of ASW helicopters it doesn’t bring much to the fight. The Slava, on the other hand, is a very dangerous foe, and it’s backed up by a Sovremenny, a Neustrashimy, and a bunch of decent middle-aged ASW-type cruisers and the like. That’s a surface group with a lot of punch. There may be an SA-10 in Latakia to give them extra cover too. As an added bonus, there is apparently a Victor lurking around somewhere, probably keeping an eye on my exercise.

The Syrians, of course, are here in huge quantity. (Well, they do live here after all.) They have lots of everything in terms of SAMs and aircraft, including MiG-29s, MiG-25s, and Su-24s, all of which are significant threats, if they know how to use them. Even if they don’t the sheer quantity of them means operations over Syria are probably out of the question, and TLAM strikes are probably going to be snapped up by the numerous fighters. They’ve got a couple of groups of Osas and some ASW patrol boats with the Russians near Latakia, but no major assets. Hopefully their attention will be diverted by Israel, my quiet ally to the south. Jordan’s here too, and hopefully they will maintain their usual ‘competent but somewhat independent and calm’ role. The longer they’re neutral the better.


THE PLAN

My instructions for the moment are to protect and preserve my forces, primarily Incirlik, Akrotiri, and my main ships.

My scattered ships don’t have enough air cover on their own (just a pair of Harriers), so the fighters from Akrotiri will head south to cover them. This will leave Akrotiri open to attack, so the American F-16s from Incirlik will head south to cover Akrotiri. This in turn leaves Incirlik open, so the F-4s from Malatya will head west to cover Incirlik. That leaves the Turkish F-16s and F-104s to stretch west and cover the Turkish/Syrian border. (In effect, my air force is doing a quarter turn counter-clockwise.)

My ships and subs will jink to try and avoid any diesel subs which may have crept into their path, and then move at full speed to converge about a 80 miles south of Cyprus, hoping to form up in a strong battle group before they can be interfered with by the Russians. After that we will consolidate and see how the situation develops.


FEB 13 – Opening Salvo

As the clock starts running, it’s clear that the Russians know exactly where I am. I can detect the radar emissions of multiple Badger reconnaissance aircraft over Syria, and I’m well within their radar range. There’s a tattletale only a few miles away from the Iowa group, and another relatively close to the Andromeda group. And it doesn’t take long before the Russians use the data.

VAMPIRE! VAMPIRE!

Radar operators start picking up multiple high-speed targets soaring upwards from the Russian battlegroup, heading straight for the Iowa. The admiral’s reaction is immediate, and moments later a Harpoon leaps off the Perry’s launcher, towards the hapless AGI, and within a couple of minutes the snooper is sunk. The little Andromeda further north finds it is within Exocet range of its AGI too, and a pair of missiles soon take care of that little problem.

That does nothing to help me with the stream of 16 enormous supersonic missiles hurtling through the stratosphere towards the Iowa group. What does help is the extreme long-range of the Leahy’s SAMs, firing in salvos of four at the distant targets. Soon I have over a dozen missiles of my own in the air, and the Leahy’s four large illuminators begin directing them in sequence. The Leahy is perfect for this type of attack. Obvious high-altitude targets at long range are its dream target, and the ASMs begin being shot down with pleasing regularity. The F-18 CAP dashes in and picks off a straggler or two, but the last couple of missiles make it through, and it takes a frantic burst of missile fire from the Perry and the Leahy to shoot them down about five miles out.

Meanwhile, fighters from Akrotiri and Incirlik are dashing towards the Andromeda group on afterburner. The Andromeda is an ancient Leander, retrofitted with a single 6-cell SeaWolf launcher, and she’s guarding two large, ponderous, vulnerable, and very valuable supply ships. She’s also the closest of my ships to the enemy. The stream of heavy missiles has passed her by, but now AWACS calls in a contact on supersonic sea-skimmers headed her way. The Sovremenny’s chosen Andromeda’s group as their target. The fighters get there just in time, dashing in low to fire on the incoming missiles with everything they have. Fortunately, a Sovremenny only carries 8 missiles, and the fighters manage to shoot them all down before they get to the group.

(I ran this part of the scenario twice, to try some things out, and the second time gave very different results. The random deployment of my ships and the Russian tattletales was different this time, and neither of the AGIs was within spotting range of their groups. As a result, the Russians were firing at unknown targets on radar only, and they spread out their missiles. Some went to Andromeda, and some went to the Iowa, but some also went towards the amphibs, and some went towards the distant solitary Concord. The ones headed for the amphibs and the Iowa all got shot down by SAMs and planes. The Leahy’s attempts to shoot down the missiles headed for the Concord all failed, because even at that mild crossing angle the missiles couldn’t make their end-game maneuver. Fighters got only one of them, and three got through, sinking the Concord. Six came for the Andromeda group, and the Leahy couldn’t get them either. Planes got two, SeaWolf got 1, chaff decoyed two, and the last one sank the Blue River. And that was just the Slava… So opening position will have a big impact here, and the player may have to let some ships die (Concord) so planes can concentrate to save others.)

Everyone’s alive for the moment, but the Syrians want to change that, and AWACS reports large formations of aircraft assembling in Syria. It looks like one of them may be headed for Incirlik, and one for Akrotiri. About this time orders come in to stay alive, protect our forces, but to not interfere with Syria. Well, it looks like the Syrians are about to interfere with me!

The first raid to hit turns out to be aiming for the radar station in southern-most Turkey, not Incirlik itself, but my F-4s which are rushing to the area make the adjustment in time. The moment the Syrians cross the border my pilots open fire, and there’s a furious low-altitude exchange, against what turns out to be a pack of Albatross trainers. Those die readily enough, but their MiG-23 escorts and nearby patrolling MiG-29s are more difficult targets, and the Slava lobbing in SA-N-6s every time I poke my head over the mountains doesn’t help either. Nonetheless, this fight resolves itself in my favour. (Although I do have a Turkish pilot with his feet up in the local café, waiting for a ride back to his squadron.) I have to wonder if this raid was more of a diversion, intended to keep my F-16s busy here rather than further south? I’m glad I brought the F-4s here instead.

The second raid goes for my ships, not the airfield, and the fighters burnering south from Incirlik are vital additions to my defence. There are swarms of MiG-23s and other fighters on high altitude escort, and packs of attack planes coming in low. I manage to concentrate my fighters on the attack planes, while the Leahy and Perry contribute by disrupting escort formations with long-range SAM fire. Even the Iowa gets into the action, blasting away with 5” guns at some passing MiGs which had been driven to the deck to avoid the SAMs. I don’t press a pursuit against the escorts once the attack planes are gone, since I’ll need every plane and missile for ongoing defence, and my planes fall back and let the enemy retire.

FEB 13 – Orders and Developments

Fresh orders come in at this point. It’s a general hot war, and while we’ve still got to preserve our forces, we’ve also been handed some objectives. We’re expected to sink the Russian fleet, and attack their forces and facilities in Latakia, as well as continuing to fend off the Syrians. The fleet is going to be a very tough target. It’s heavily defended by its own SAMs, its operating under a land-based SAM umbrella, it’s in the immediate proximity to fighter bases, and it’s got ASW patrol boats (we’re picking up Petya radars) screening its movements. This is not something that can be handled with a hasty attack. The orders also come with some good news. HQ is scrambling to get us some ammunition, and cargo flights should be headed for Akrotiri in a few hours, which will help immensely.

The strength of the air attacks on my ships prompts a change of orders. I had been planning to converge all naval forces in one location south of Cyprus, but that would leave the Andromeda group all alone as tail-end Charlie, fat, slow and vulnerable. Therefore the Iowa group is ordered to turn north and head directly for the Andromeda, who will hurry south to meet her. This will give some decent SAM protection to the isolated group as soon as possible. Once they are together they will turn WNW and head for Akrotiri. My other forces will continue to converge south of Cyprus, and once they are together they too will head north for Akrotiri. My plan is to drop off the vulnerable logistics ships and amphibs at Akrotiri, where they will anchor immediately west of the base in the shelter of the SAM defences and fighters stationed there. My warships can then leave them behind (with a small ASW escort) while they form up for the main attack on the Russian fleet. My SSNs, meanwhile, are to head NE directly for the fleet, but they have to move at speed, which will limit their sonar performance.

I’m also eyeing those two packs of Osas with concern. Normally they’d be trivial to destroy, since I outrange them in all respects, but my planes are all AA focused at the moment. I could destroy them with Harpoons, but I need those for engaging the Soviet fleet, so I’m reluctant to use them up on missile boats. I’ll have to let them keep closing for the moment, but if I don’t stop them they’ll be in fighting range early this evening.

Meanwhile, only 49 minutes into the fight, my ESM crews start reporting traces of HAWK radar illumination emissions from the south. It looks like the Israelis have started taking shots at Syrian aircraft which pass too close to their borders. Hopefully the situation there won’t progress beyond skirmishing, otherwise we may be drawn into a growing conflict we are ill-equipped to support.

Of course, I will have to survive the ongoing heavy attacks before any of this can happen.


FEB 13 – Heavy attacks

The next raid nearly gets into the Andromeda group (still alone), and it’s only the arrival of F-5s and F-18s from Greece which let me fend it off. The F-18s did an amazing afterburner run from Souda, tanking just west of Cyprus, and then burnering the rest of the way in. Lord knows what condition their engines are in now. It’s only a few minutes to the next attack, as MiG-23s press in to bomb the Andromeda, and this time British F-4s and the F-18s (now down to guns) shoot down the attackers. The Syrians make three more raids in the next hour or so, all trying to get at the Andromeda or the Iowa, but now the Turkish F-4s start to play a starring role. They have to fly the long way around Syria, turning south at Incirlik (and avoiding the heavy SAMs on the Slava), and hurrying down to the fight. They only show up two at a time, but that’s enough to match the pace of the raids, and these old work-horses hold the line and do a tremendous amount of good work. These raids also don’t have the heavy escort that the first ones did, so they are easier to tackle directly.

About this time AWACs starts spotting extremely low altitude high-subsonic contacts moving in the direction of the Andromeda group. Judging by their speed, these are probably Kh-35s, in which case they must be from the Russian fleet, which would be well out of range. Could they have been launched from something closer? A few minutes later the contacts are lost again, as the missiles run out of fuel in mid ocean. The Iowa group’s been jamming, so perhaps Russians were firing at sensor ghosts? In any case, now that those missiles have been used, a naval attack on the enemy fleet will be much easier.

In all the confusion the Syrians manage to get a few fighters through the line. Occasional MiG-25 incursions along the Syria/Turkey border cause localised disruptions to patrolling fighters there, but the really embarrassing one is the MiG-21 that I suddenly realize is headed right for my AWACs. None of my fighters are in position to intercept it, unless I launch my AIM-120 reserve from Incirlik and burner them away from the fight, which would leave a dangerous vulnerability. So the AWACS turns and flees into southern Turkey, and gets chased most of the way to the Dardanelles before the MiG has to turn back when it runs low on fuel. (It then gets whacked by a pair of F-104s. Early cold-war justice!)

The underwater scene isn’t quiet either. There have been numerous false contacts throughout my area of operation, but my P-3 patrolling in the naval assembly area south of Cyprus picks up a positive contact on one of its high-performance VLAD sonobuoys. Overflying the contact confirms it with a MAD hit, and sonar resolves it as a Victor, cruising towards my slow-moving amphibs, which are only an hour or so away. It takes a couple of torps (Soviet decoys seem to work very well), but the Victor is soon sunk, and the P-3 resumes patrol. Further north, the little Turkish diesel sub Dolunay is just passing the eastern end of Cyprus, hoping to make it to the Latakia area, when it picks up a moving underwater contact. This is a very bad thing, because the Dolunay has no ASW torpedoes at all, and is utterly defenceless. Slowing and creeping to the far side of the layer doesn’t help, and the contact follows me up and down. It’s a Kilo. We’re sure to die.

The Dolunay releases a radio buoy to call for help, and tries to hide in the layer, maybe getting into the Kilo’s baffles, but that doesn’t work. Nonetheless, the Kilo doesn’t fire. It seems like it can’t figure out what I am. As this dance continues, a Nimrod is hurrying in at lowest altitude. The sub is near the enemy fleet’s SAM radius, and the CAP loitering therein, so Tornado F3s and F-16s with AMRAAM are sent to escort it. The two subs are so close together that the Nimrod can’t safely drop on the enemy, so it drops a torp some distance off. The Kilo hears it and moves away to a prudent distance, and so does the Dolunay – but in a different direction. Once the two subs are far enough apart the Nimrod moves in and makes the kill. The Dolunay is saved, and can continue to close on the enemy fleet.

All this activity has definitely caught the interest of the Russian CAP, and four angry MiG-23s are headed in on afterburner. As the Nimrod flees my escorts move in and kill the charging MiGs, while the Slava takes SA-N-6 potshots at us, continually forcing my planes down to the deck. The combination of fighters and SAMs is going to be a real problem, which I have to start working on before I can get into the fleet. My fighters withdraw for a few minutes, and then advance to provoke another fight with the Russian MiGs, winning that one too. Then the Tornadoes continue in as low as possible to try and hit the ASW helicopters, which I really need to get rid of if the Dolunay wants to get in. My very long range Sky-Flash missiles are the only hope I have of reaching into the fleet’s SAM umbrella, but despite all the effort they only hit two of the helicopters before retiring. Given the indecisive results, I may need to try something else.

The Syrian raids continue, coming in without escorts now, and I’m getting a bit complacent when one of them suddenly opens up with a frontal aspect missile! These are Fencers, not Floggers or Fitters, and they’re not such easy kills. Wrenching away from the missile, my pilots draw back and come around from the rear, but that gives more time for the Fencers to close in on my ships. I consider opening fire with SAMs, but if these are Fencers they may be carrying ARMs, so I elect to keep radars off as the planes rush towards me. Fortunately my fighters manage to make the intercept in time, but it’s a sobering lesson in making sure about what my targets are in advance.

Two more raids follow, but these turn out to be the more vulnerable MiG-23s and Su-22s, so they are dealt with long before they reach my ships. (A bit more cautiously though…)


FEB 13 – Dusk

As dusk falls I’d been starting to wonder if the Syrian air-force would simply destroy itself, by sending in multiple small unsupported raids that I can easily overwhelm, but it seems like they’re getting more organized now. The next raid of note is 10 attack planes, distributed in several flights of two, including Su-24s, plus four escorts. My fighters handle the situation again (love that steady flow of Turkish F-4s!), but at the end of this fight I’m growing concerned that the cupboard is getting bare, as more and more of my fighters have completed their second quick turnaround flight, and are now down for three hours of maintenance. The F-18s and F-5s that flew in from Greece earlier in the afternoon are also grounded in Akrotiri with no missiles to reload, waiting for their slow-moving C-130 to come droning in with a load of AAMs.

Over by Latakia my F-16s have continued trying to draw the Russian MiG-23s into fights outside the reach of the Slava’s SAMs, coming in very low and shooting upwards with AMRAAMs, when they find that the rumours of an active SA-10 in the area are true. They manage to dive under the shots in time, but that’s one more impediment to any attack I make near Latakia. I certainly won’t be loitering any recce planes overhead in that area.

Out at sea, the approaching Osas are applying more pressure. I’ve been looking for a ‘cheap’ way to deal with them, and my helicopters may be a solution. I have one Lynx ready with Sea Skua, and one Cobra loaded with TOW (plus two other Lynxes and three more Cobras readying, but it will be a couple of hours more before their loadout is complete). These are launched under cover of darkness to sneak in at extremely low altitude, while fighters loiter on guard over the southern group of Osas. The attack works very well. A single Sea Skua hit doesn’t sink a missile boat outright, but it usually leaves it burning dead in the water. Similarly, TOW missiles are much too small to sink anything, but a barrage of them can batter the target enough that it can’t shoot back, letting the helicopter close in a bit to pummel the target with rockets. By the end of my attack I’ve hit every ship in the group, which has now come to a full stop, and my helicopters retire safely while my escorts down a MiG-21 that came to investigate.

I’m confident my other helicopters would be able to deal with all the Osas, if I had time to wait, but I don’t think I do. Now that the Iowa group has dropped off its logistics ships at Akrotiri, it has turned and headed back east, and the northern group of Osas will be in range of them in about an hour. Reluctantly, I think I must engage the Osas now, so my Perry starts shooting Harpoons at them one by one. I regret the use of every single missile. Other missiles will follow until the Osas are gone.

By this time my evening flights of F-18s and F-5s are arriving from Greece, with their C-130 full of missiles following a few minutes later. Two flights of F-18s break off to refuel, going into CAP, while the remaining F-18s and all the F-5s are sent to land. As this is happening, AWACS starts reporting many new contacts launching and forming up in Syria. ESM suggests we’re looking at large numbers of MiG-23s and MiG-29s. Whatever’s happening is going to be big. The trouble is, I don’t know where it’s going yet. So three flights of Turkish F-4s launch to cover Incirlik, while a flight of F-16s with AMRAAMs launch and head south for Akrotiri, joining up with some F-4s already en-route. They’ll meet up with the planes already in that area. Hopefully that will cover all my major assets.

As radar operators peer at their screens, the enemy’s course becomes clear. They’ve got four Fitters escorted by eight or so MiG-23s, followed by roughly a dozen MiG-29s, and it looks like they’re headed for my ships again. (I really need to kill those damned Badgers who are watching me, but I’m very much on the defensive, and can’t spare planes for a death-run into Syria.) I’m facing them with the two new flights of F-18s from Greece, two flights of F-16 with AMRAAM, and a flight of Turkish F-4s. They outnumber me 2 to 1 in fighters, but I have much better misssiles. After a last-minute splash of fuel from the tankers, we turn to engage!

First shots are taken by the F-18s, picking exclusively on the MiG-23s and trying to turn them aside with Sparrow shots, and then pressing on to take some long-range shots at the MiG-29s, and this works reasonably well. Most of the F-18s manage to disengage after their Sparrows are gone, and then the F-16s are in place for a blast of AMRAAMs at the MiG-29s. This goes very well, and only three of the MiG-29s survive the double AMRAAM barrage. The Fitters have been essentially ignored in all of this (one died to a hasty Sidewinder shot), but all their dodging must have used up valuable fuel, since they now turn for home. My remaining planes burner west for some clearance, before turning back to deal with stragglers, and they get the last of the MiG-29s, but the surviving Fitters and Floggers get away, and I don’t pursue. My pilots call for the SAR helicopter for my swimming crewmen, as my planners take note of the ready board which is now very nearly empty.


PLAN FOR THE NIGHT

At the moment I’m rather low on aircraft in the Akrotiri area. All four Tornados are ready to go, but the rest of my force is essentially reloading or waiting for missiles. Another big hit here might be tough to fend off if it came quickly. Incirlik doesn’t have much left either, although the three flights of F-4s orbiting overhead give me a good feeling. However, if the Syrians (and Russians) give me two hours or so, then I’ll have a lot more ready planes back on line, and I don’t think they’ll be able to force their way in after that.

That means I have to start thinking about forcing my way into their domain instead, to deal with the fleet and land-based elements.

I think I’m doing okay whittling down the Russian MiG-23s (although there’s a lot more than the dozen or so that intel suspected), and I can probably kill some more, or at least be ready to hit them if they appear. I might (maybe) be able to get subs in (go Dolunay!), if the Russians aren’t using active sonar, but if they are then I’m so much dead meat. The big risk will be MAD hits from the swarm of ASW helicopters, which I still need to deal with, and that’s very much a roll of the dice. Unfortunately, I’m not set up for SAM suppression, so going in with attack aircraft (either from LGB altitude or low level) will probably be a disaster. I may need to rely on an ASM and TLAM saturation attack to try and empty SAM magazines, followed by an immediate medium altitude air attack on the major SAM assets, particularly the Slava and SA-10. (I really hope they don’t have two of the latter. Only seen one so far.)

To accomplish this I’ll continue to gather my main fleet tonight, dropping off the last of the amphibs, etc. at Akrotiri, and then ready for a combined missile and air strike, most likely in the pre-dawn hours of the morning. We’ll only have one big shot, so it must be concentrated and powerful.

(And then there’s the Israeli wildcard. Will things get politically messy in that corner of the Med? I do not need a diversion of assets down there!)

We shall see.