Stand fast or manoeuvre? StB EvK (Axis) vs. Elma666(Soviets)

[joelmar]

ORIGINAL: Ewald Von Kleist

I am not convinced that the swapping of the Nazi gouvernement for a conservative-militaristic leadership will bring much relief for the rest of the world. But I plan to play non-hitleresque so the man had to go.

Let's cross our fingers, there are those who say Hitler was doing the right thing with his not a step back orders!

[EwaldvonKleist]

@JohnB: The what ifs of an rather early successful coup are interesting and give food for endless debates. In case of a militarily successful and politically reasonable leadership, I can very well imagine that the Allies (especially the US) would agree to some compromise peace, e.g. Germany keeping all territories with major German population, before the A-bombs become ready. Not sure if this Germany here is worth routing for, but at least it now only is "just" another imperialistic great power, although unusually aggressive. But I had to kill Hitler to get freedom of action!

@Crackaces: I am sceptical of the fixed 6.1 mio number.
-the average morale is important. 10% morale difference mean 21% CV difference all other things being equal
-it is more about force ratios than absolute numbers. Maybe the Soviets can stop a 3.3 mio men Wehrmacht with 6.1 mio, but games started in 1941 see the Germans having 4 mio. men during the winter 42/43. 4 mio vs 6.5 mio is better for the Axis than 3.3 mio vs. 6.1 mio.
-C&C and the location of the frontline

[EwaldvonKleist]

T2, 26.11.1941 after Axis operations
Work on the reform immediately begins.
In the North, two important hexagons are taken by bloody all-out attacks. The forces at Oranienbaum will not be isolated due to the beachhead supply, but are essentially out of the game and can be kept in check by no more than a regiment.
The operation Nipple Removal will evacuate the exposed forces at Demyansk.
Army Group Centre plans the two attacks Büffelsturm I&II, designed to soldify the base of the Rshew salient while moralising motorised units and destroying Soviet formations. A clear win-win-win situation. Woods conceal the massing formations from Soviet recon. This operation exploits that many Soviet formations are still frozen. They offensive can be easily stopped by reinforcing the locations but there is not so much room for organic improvement without extra forces.

Army Group B and Centre cooperate for operation Ant Trail, a movement parallel to the Frontline taking place between Orel and Boguchar to rebalance the force distribution.

6th army exploits gaps in the Soviet attack to withdraw. Most formations can likely be saved.

Army Group A withdraws North. The Caucasus is of little value, difficult to supply (rail modifier) and the forces are needed elsewhere.

The colossus Wehrmacht is shaking, leaders are replaced, units relocated, settings adjusted, offensives and withdrawals planned. The points of the reform program often conflict with each other so playing somewhat efficient is very difficult, rail capacity and admin points and player time are in short supply.
Time is precious, with every week the Soviets will benefit more of their replacement rate advantage and unfreezing of their units.

[Telemecus]

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist
The operation Nipple Removal

OK I think the time has come for naming rules for operational names! [:D]

That together with rules on which colours you are allowed to change units to as well!

[joelmar]

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

OK I think the time has come for naming rules for operational names!

Now with Hitler gone, anything goes!

[xhoel]

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

What, are you suggesting that, what, the Soviets are preparing for a major strategic offensive? You are an officer, so am I. So please tell me, how can the primitive Russians prepare a complex counterattack? Not tactical, strategical. Go to the 6th Army and report back on the situation. It will be fine, you will see.

I am enjoying your use of the quotes, it is pretty funny to apply it to other situations.

The write up for the AAR is very good. I will be following closely.

If I might add something: from my experience it is much better to recover morale by R&R units in the rear than it is from attacks on the enemy. There are 2 reasons for this: 1) The morale recovery is much faster and 2) you don't have to shed a drop of blood. Even attacks on weak enemy units will cause a lot of casualties. Considering the limited manpower that Germany has, it is my belief that the players should abstain from such attacks where you have very little to gain. This ofc does not apply to units that are 1-2 points under the NM, they can be ordered to attack and recover morale normally.

And btw I have been checking my game and what we talked about in your other thread (the morale dropping randomly) is happening and I have seen it happen in multiple cases (even when the conditions stated in the manual were not fulfilled). I am sure that you will have the same experience in your game, if you pay attention to your units.

Cheers!

[corbon]

I just wanted to add a +1 to subscribing (or at least visiting regularly), and a general thanks for the information you lay out in both this AAR and other 'resources' and threads.

Thank you sir.

[joelmar]

It's not an easy situation and it will be a quite interesting game to follow. A big help to understand better the Axis defensive capacities and tactics.

[EwaldvonKleist]

@Telemecus: Having checked it, nipple means nipple more pronounced than I had thought. The Demyansk front makes me think of a wart or a nippel in the broader German meaning of Nippel, therefore the name
So what colour would you NOT like to see on a counter? Asking for a friend.

@Zorch: My post eight might be panglossian (just learnt a new word here), but it also is an allusion to the HBO Chernobyl series (as are Xhoel's and Fetterkrolle's posts before). Xhoel and me are both paraphrasing the iconic "There is no graphite on the roof" scene: https://youtu.be/Khyd7yLda0M?t=70

@xhoel: So do I with yours [:)]
Regarding the morale, I in general agree. And most units are only a bit under their NM so 1-3 attacks suffice. The problem is that I do not have enough capacity to rail the units back, not enough trucks to march them, no one to replace them on the frontline and not enough time to delay other actions. So attacks often appear as the best choice to get the job done. This being said, I try to combine moralising with intrinsically useful attacks for pocket creation or to frontline improvement. Sometimes I also attack to get my units out of contact with enemies for quicker fort construction.


I will demand of every division commander to immediately report sudden morale drops in their units.

@all others: Good to hear you like the AAR so far

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

@Telemecus: Having checked it, nipple means nipple more pronounced than I had thought. The Demyansk front makes me think of a wart or a nippel in the broader German meaning of Nippel, therefore the name
So what colour would you NOT like to see on a counter? Asking for a friend.

@Zorch: My post eight might be panglossian (just learnt a new word here), but it also is an allusion to the HBO Chernobyl series (as are Xhoel's and Fetterkrolle's posts before). Xhoel and me are both paraphrasing the iconic "There is no graphite on the roof" scene: https://youtu.be/Khyd7yLda0M?t=70

@xhoel: So do I with yours [:)]
Regarding the morale, I in general agree. And most units are only a bit under their NM so 1-3 attacks suffice. The problem is that I do not have enough capacity to rail the units back, not enough trucks to march them, no one to replace them on the frontline and not enough time to delay other actions. So attacks often appear as the best choice to get the job done. This being said, I try to combine moralising with intrinsically useful attacks for pocket creation or to frontline improvement. Sometimes I also attack to get my units out of contact with enemies for quicker fort construction.


I will demand of every division commander to immediately report sudden morale drops in their units.

@all others: Good to hear you like the AAR so far

+100

[xhoel]

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

@xhoel: So do I with yours [:)]
Regarding the morale, I in general agree. And most units are only a bit under their NM so 1-3 attacks suffice. The problem is that I do not have enough capacity to rail the units back, not enough trucks to march them, no one to replace them on the frontline and not enough time to delay other actions. So attacks often appear as the best choice to get the job done. This being said, I try to combine moralising with intrinsically useful attacks for pocket creation or to frontline improvement. Sometimes I also attack to get my units out of contact with enemies for quicker fort construction.


I will demand of every division commander to immediately report sudden morale drops in their units.

@all others: Good to hear you like the AAR so far

Yeah I am aware of the limitations that you would have especially when dropped into such a scenario where everything is an absolute mess and there are crisis to be dealt with all over the front. In this case I would absolutely agree with you that conducting some attacks would be better than railing them to the rear. Glad to hear that you don't just attack for the sake of attacking

Would be nice to see a report on those morale drops

Cheers!

[EwaldvonKleist]

T2, 26.11.1942 alternative Stalingrad pocket
Before starting the Campaign, I experimented a bit with the Soviet opening. Below you can see what I came up with. Some failed attacks can force you to take other ways, but on the other hand, it was the first or second try, so you can surely optimise more. One can't keep the Axis from re-connecting the pocket in T2, but deny them a comfortable path to walk out. My opponent commented that he wanted to avoid split-ups in his opening in fear of counterattacks, but I think ZOCing is a better precaution. Maybe another player or a rematch can give a definite answer.

[EwaldvonKleist]

T3, 03.12.1942 before Axis operations
Partisans everywhere. Much of the railcap is used to hunt partisans, repair the rail and bring garrison forces to cities. The fair price for being not nice to the civilian population.

No catastrophes, the Soviets destroy a few fortifications. 6th army keeps its corridor, Blizzard hinders both Axis and Soviets. Mountain units are better in dealing with the winter conditions but they won’t share their tricks with the rest of the army, which has to pay at least 3MPs per hexagon.
Preparations for Operation Büffelsturm I&II are finished. The MP are lower than I would like them to be. The problem is that the supply need is calculated before replacements are added, so quickly growing units tend to be undersupplied. You can note the same with the Soviets in 1941.

.

[xhoel]

Good to see a new update!

A few questions regarding the game:
1) How long do you figure it will take until Demyansk is completely evacuated?
2) I see there are multiple units set to static mode, are there plans to reactivate them or are you aiming to save trucks due to the poor conditions of the motor pool?
3) Will the pocket of Oranienbaum be cleared or is that an operation that will be conducted at a later time?
4) Do you plan on holding on to the Rzhev salient?
5) Are you using the Transport wing of the LW to fly supplies to units that are low on either supply or fuel?

Cheers!

[EwaldvonKleist]

1) The problem with Demyansk is that the escape route consists of ZOC to ZOC movements. And many units there are static. So progress is 1hex/turn, expect the operation to take 3 more turns. Fortunately the high fort levels secure the positions so a cut off is unlikely.
2) The static units will be reactivated as I need them for my operations. The motor pool and the available AP are both constraints here.
3) The Oranienbaum pocket will not be cleared immediately. The defensive CV are rather high and the forces to overcome them are needed elsewhere. I at first hoped the units there will decay but that did not happen as quickly as hoped for. When weather improves I maybe can march units there, attack and march them back into their position in one turn.
4) Yes. The fortifications there are valuable, you do not get a lvl 3 fort over night. If my planned counterattacks succeed, the salient will be much less exposed. And while it needs Axis forces to hold, it also binds Soviet forces. Frontline shortening effects both the attacker and defender, although the defender usually benefits more of the increased unit density. And I need to remain close to Moscow to at least keep the dream of Operation Typhoon 2 alive [:)]
5) Yes, I do. It is a bit of a two edged sword, because the transport aircraft are very heavy and contribute their share to the truck shortage. But I use them regularly to overload motorised units with fuel to guarantee that they can use their full MP potential. Sort of a HQ BU without AP cost. Unfortunately air drops can also betray the position of a force build up, so one needs to be careful not to reveal the next offensive.

[EwaldvonKleist]

T3, 03.12.1942 after Axis operations
I continue to shuffle around forces to rebalance the Front. The North is constantly stripped. The problem is the limited railcap but there is a workaround. Disbanding units sends their manpower to pool and next turn any unit on the map can receive the replacements. So essentially you have sent the unit (or at least its CV) to another place.
Most units disbanded are low morale infantry divisions from the Demyansk area or from the North. With one megamen manpower deficit I am not afraid of running out of containers to fill my resources in anytime soon.

Operation Büffelsturm I&II in general is successful, but one very annoying hold means that the bigger of the two pockets is not well sealed and will probably leak units.

Not many spectacular things happening elsewhere. In the South a key rail line is identified.

.

[xhoel]

Thanks for the answers EvK, seems like we agree on many things in regards to how to best proceed in this situation. Btw I seem to recall that units on beachhead supply don't lose morale like isolated units do and their attrition is also way lower. Should probably run some tests to be sure about it but that's what I recall right now. Destroying those formations at a later time seems the right way to go.

Your pockets look good to me, the 10=10 Panzer Division in the second pocket is in a precarious position but other than tha it looks solid. How many men are in the pockets approximately?

[EwaldvonKleist]

You are welcome - 15 divs and 2 brigades are in the pockets, so approximately 140k men (Soviet units tend to be understrength). A nice haul. If they remain sealed...

I even considered leaving the Oranienbaum units unguarded but I do not want them to destroy my rails/fortifications or to become a troll force in the rear.

[EwaldvonKleist]

T4, 10.12.1942 before Axis operations
Bad news, both Büffelsturm pockets broken. The Northern one falls to a lucky attack (I was surprised here), the opening of the Southern pocket was expected.

A few Soviet attacks along the front, and at Stalingrad the encircled Mech Corp is freed.
So none of the pockets stayed sealed, but at least the Soviets are reacting to Axis blows, instead of reverse.

.

[EwaldvonKleist]

T4, 10.12.1942 after Axis operations
Both pockets are resealed, albeit with very limited content inside.
Because destruction of Soviet units was only one goal beside frontline stabilization/flank security, moralising and conquest of a backup rail line, von Kluge can still sell the operation as a victory to high command.

The attacks on the Soviet Mech Corp are the only noteworthy events beside the regular frontline maintenance. The formation loses 2/3rd of its AFVs and probably most of the initial morale bonus the scenario designer gave it. I could have tried another encirclement, but I want to disengage the 6th army to a better position, therefore the routing out.

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