Act II - Uncivil Engr (J) vs. christopher1963 (A)

[Uncivil Engineer]

The results posted above highlight the problem with basing your plans on what you expect the opponent to do, rather than on his capabilities. As I explained previously, he expected a split KB supporting invasions of Luzon and Malaya, which is what I did in our previous game.

The question now is what to do with KB. I had planned to retire and refuel on the way to supporting the invasion at Wake. But, what is he NOT expecting?

1 - hang around and attack Pearl again
2 - move toward Los Angeles and attack tankers leaving LA and/or CV Saratoga leaving San Diego
3 - move toward Portland and attack Colorado and Warspite in port
4 - retire
5 - 2 and 1 - go to the west coast, then attack Pearl on the withdrawal
6 - split KB and do 2 and 3

I'm not real sure the Oilers have enough fuel to do anything other than option 1.

Any opinions?

[Cheesesteak]

ORIGINAL: Uncivil Engineer

The results posted above highlight the problem with basing your plans on what you expect the opponent to do, rather than on his capabilities. As I explained previously, he expected a split KB supporting invasions of Luzon and Malaya, which is what I did in our previous game.

The question now is what to do with KB. I had planned to retire and refuel on the way to supporting the invasion at Wake. But, what is he NOT expecting?

1 - hang around and attack Pearl again
2 - move toward Los Angeles and attack tankers leaving LA and/or CV Saratoga leaving San Diego
3 - move toward Portland and attack Colorado and Warspite in port
4 - retire
5 - 2 and 1 - go to the west coast, then attack Pearl on the withdrawal
6 - split KB and do 2 and 3

I'm not real sure the Oilers have enough fuel to do anything other than option 1.

Any opinions?

Devil's advocate - the reason Wake is expected is because it helps your timetable. Smacking Wake down hard and fast means Midway is easy grab as well.

[Uncivil Engineer]

Midway might be an easy grab, but then what do you do with it? It's too far to keep supported and then becomes a training ground for the Allies. You can't keep KB hanging out around Midway to contest recapture, there are to many other things that are more important, like Java. Just my opinion.

Anyway, I've decided to send KB northeast, getting at least 20 hexes away from both Pearl and Midway to get out of PBY search range. Refuel, then decide which way to go. Maybe I'll get lucky if some damaged BBs wander by from Pearl to the West Coast for repair. If the subs don't get them first.

[Bif1961]

A do over so soon now that is a quick victory, from here on out you will have that feather in your cap.

[Jorge_Stanbury]

IMO, to have a turn "redo" just because some normal-to-high loses on turn 1 is very inauspicious to say the least. Then what will happen if you sink a carrier?

As per your question on what to do with KB; I think is is very optimistic to think you will catch something juicy at port; if he is a somehow competent player he will set good naval search at PH/ Midway/ West coast, etc. It won't be difficult to spot that huge KB fleet and track its path; it will be difficult to surprise him in the west coast. and without surprise you risk losing a lot

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

IMO, to have a turn "redo" just because some normal-to-high loses on turn 1 is very inauspicious to say the least. Then what will happen if you sink a carrier?

As per your question on what to do with KB; I think is is very optimistic to think you will catch something juicy at port; if he is a somehow competent player he will set good naval search at PH/ Midway/ West coast, etc. It won't be difficult to spot that huge KB fleet and track its path; it will be difficult to surprise him in the west coast. and without surprise you risk losing a lot

Given the house rules allowing Allied movement on Turn 1 and the reaction to the first attack at PH, he seems unprepared for losses and that suggests a rookie player. He might not think of the WC defences so early on.

[Jorge_Stanbury]

true, but it is better to base plans on enemy capabilities and not potential skill

raiding WC is a lot of fuel wasted and a lot of risk of important ship or pilot losses, the rewards are a big incognito, with extreme good luck he will get something big, a carrier, a battleship, oilers, but the most likely scenario is he will find the most common; a cargo TF, and the will surprise and sink; so maybe 10 to 15 xAKs gone, then the surprise (and torpedo inventories) are gone; no surprise means empty seas and alerted bases. KB is not invulnerable, fighting against an alerted WC airbase/ port will likely do more damage to Japan than to the Allies

[RangerJoe]

Or bombing undefended Resource centers for quick VPs.

[Uncivil Engineer]

Dec 8

KB moved northeast and is still within PBY search range from Pearl Harbor, but is now undetected. An excursion to the West Coast is a big waste of fuel considering what targets may OR MAY NOT present themselves. From here we're heading west on a track to take KB 2 hexes north of Midway (it will be detected during transit), refueling enroute, then further west, and finally SW north of Wake to support the invasion there. The oilers will return to Yokohama after refueling KB, and will be on their own. I suspect the US CVs Enterprise and Lexington have headed south, but always on the look out. If Lexington went north the oilers have a problem. Nells at Kwajalein have a big search arc from the NE near Wake to the SE; nothing found in it. The preplanned invasion TFs for Wake and Makin have been diverted to Nauru and Ocean Is. to increase the distance from possible US CV intervention.

[Uncivil Engineer]

Dec 9 - 10

KB refueled on the 9th and continued west on the 10th, but is still east of Midway and undetected. My adversary stated in an email that it looked like KB was headed for Seattle. Since it's been undetected for 3 days, my guess is he has SIGINT on KB's location. I say let him think what he wants; we're going to Wake. The Wake invasion brigade is approaching Marcus Island, and will join a 2 BB TF already there.

[Uncivil Engineer]

My first naval screw up of the game.

On Dec 9 a small TF dropped a small JAAF unit at Morotai. On the 10th, after unloading, the CL DeRuyter and 4 DDs intercepted and sank the PB and 2 xAXL. Then my mistake. On the 11th, I sent a 2 BB TF with escorts that was near Davao to Talaud-eilanden thinking I would be protecting the amphib TF there (orange line). But, that TF was moving back to Babeldaob, so my protection was for naught. The DeRuyter TF moved northeast from Morotai (blue line), intercepted the Talaud amphib TF (yellow star), sinking several empty transports, THEN continued northeast and sank more tranports (no troops, other yellow star) of another amphib TF waiting it's turn off the east coast of Mindanao. My BB TF reacted in vain, but couldn't catch up. Then DeRuyter disappeared!



You can see the search pattern from Babeldaob. A lot of Allied TFs are shown west of Mindanao, but no sign of DeRuyter. I suspect it continued north and west to the Sulu Sea based solely on the reaction direction of my BB TF. I should have either kept the amphibs at Talaud when the BBs moved there, OR moved them NORTH toward Davao, keeping my BBs south of them and between the transports and DeRuyter. I guess.

Edit to add: Also, on the 10th, CVL Ryujo's Kates put a torpedo in CA Houston at Zamboanga. So, it and CL Boise are still in the area.

[Uncivil Engineer]

So, my plan for Dec 12th is -

The wayward BB TF, now southeast of Mindanao, will head to Cagayan followed by the amphib TF carrying 16 Div(-). The other 2 BB TF will loop part way around the southern tip of Mindanao, followed by the CVL TF, and an amphib TF destined for Zamboanga. I'm limiting the distance moved by the BBs so that the amphibs can keep up.



Troops have landed at Davao and will capture that base today. Those transports are protected by 2 heavy cruisers. The other 4 TFs shown are heading to Babeldaob; the one from the north is a CL and 4 DDs. CVL Ryujo is out of torpedoes and the Kates are now at half strength, so will be retiring soon. Torpedo armed Betties are at Babeldaob, but have been idle. Once Davao is secured some of our search aircraft will move there.

[Bif1961]

Don't worry the game is young and you will far more even harmful errors. War is a series of errors and who makes the least frequently wins.

[Uncivil Engineer]

Yes, the game is young, and the opponent is likely to screw up, too.

Which brings me to the developing saga of CL DeRuyter - the cruiser laid waste to 2 or 3 of my amphib task forces, fortunately sinking only empty ships, and managed to stay off my radar (so to speak) for days. Well, it finally showed up, not in the Sulu Sea where I thought it might have gone, but down by the little island called Waigeo. Not only out of ammo, but out of gas!

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Waigeo at 82,106

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G4M1 Betty x 26

Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 1 damaged

Allied Ships
CL De Ruyter, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Piet Hein
DD Banckert

Aircraft Attacking:
26 x G4M1 Betty launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo

De Ruyter dead in the water ...
Piet Hein dead in the water ...
Banckert dead in the water ...

Which doesn't say much for my Betty pilots - the ships are not moving, but only 1 torpedo out of 26 hit! Seriously?

Here's the first week in Malaya -



On Dec 7 one regiment of 18 Div landed at Kota Bharu, followed by masses of aviation support and engineers. The other two regiments landed at Kuantan. Unloading finished on the 8th, and attacks on the 9th captured both bases. At Mersing 5 Div landed on the 8th, attacked to reduce forts to zero on the 9th, and captured the base on the 10th. 6 Tank Regt arrived to reinforce Mersing on the 12th-13th.

10 Tank Regiment landed at Patani on the 7th, then moved across the peninsula toward Georgetown, but ran into the 6th and 11th Indian Brigades fleeing from Alor Star. The vacant Alor Star flipped on the 11th allowing 14 Tank Regiment to continue on its railroad journey right into town. 14 Tk will join 10 Tk to attack down the west coast.

[Uncivil Engineer]

On Luzon -



As mentioned earlier in this commentary, the landings at Aparri are intended to be a feint, although any feint can be reinforced to become something bigger. Anyway, Tanaka and Kanno landed at Aparri on Dec 7, captured the base, and by Dec 13 had reloaded transports bound for Palembang with the rest of 48 Div. 65 Bde and lots of aviation support and engineers are now at Aparri, with 7 Tank Rgt moving into Tuguegarao, which has been abandoned by the US battalion. Since there have been no landings at Vigan or San Fernando, my opponent has determined these landings to be a ruse (his words). He forgets 38 Div at Hong Kong! And he now expects early assaults on Java and/or Port Moresby (again, his words).

How/when this plays out will be determined by his reactions. Manila and Clark Field are being bombed daily and damage is not being repaired, so forts aren't being built either. The fighter battle for air superiority follows (losses per day, each side):

Dec 7 - 4 Zeroes, 9 US (6 Warhawks, 3 P-26)
Dec 8 - 3 Zeroes, 9 US
Dec 9 - 1 Zero, 3 Warhawks
Dec 10 - 0 Zeroes, 8 US
Dec 11 - 0 Zeroes, 3 Warhawks
Dec 12 - 1 Zero, 1 US
Dec 13 - 1 Zero, 4 US
Total - 10 Zeroes, 37 US

These are from a combination of sweeps and escort missions.

[Uncivil Engineer]

And the continuing (and terminal) saga of CL DeRuyter -

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Kofiau at 80,106

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G4M1 Betty x 21

Allied aircraft
B-339D x 4

Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 2 destroyed, 2 damaged

No Allied losses

Allied Ships
DD Kortenaer
CL De Ruyter, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x G4M1 Betty launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo

CAP engaged:
2e-1-VI.G.V Groep with B-339D (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 5000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 5000.
Raid is overhead
2-VI.G.V with B-339D (3 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
3 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 6000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 6000.
Raid is overhead

Kortenaer dead in the water ...
De Ruyter dead in the water ...

[Uncivil Engineer]

Mindanao Dec 10 - 16



Lightly defended Davao was easily captured. More heavily defended Cagayan took an extra day to reduce forts. The defenders at Cagayan retreated to Malaybalay and will be destroyed there. Reinforcements for Zamboanga are enroute, as is an invasion force for Dadjangas. Kimura and Miura have reformed 33 Inf Rgt at Davao and have loaded transports for Butuan on the north of the island. After Mindanao is secure 16 Div will attack Tarakan, Samarinda, and Balikpapan. 2 Div is arriving at Babeldaob and will attack Ambon next.

[Bif1961]

Destroyed Captain Hara likened naval bomber attack lone ships on the sea as a hawk diving on a rat in a cage it pokes one eye out then turns and pokes the other out and then goes back to it's perch.

[Uncivil Engineer]

Dec 18

After the Japanese landing at Kavieng on Dec 17 is detected, the Allies sent CA Louisville, CA Canberra, and CL Perth to interfere -

Night Time Surface Combat, near Kavieng at 106,122, Range 1,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
DD Asanagi
DD Yunagi
PB Fukui Maru
PB Keijo Maru
xAK Terukawa Maru, Shell hits 1
xAP Buenos Aires Maru
xAP Huzi Maru, Shell hits 3

Allied Ships
CA Louisville, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1
CA Canberra
CL Perth

Reduced sighting due to 0% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 0% moonlight: 1,000 yards

Our transports held up rather well, and a DD putting a torpedo into Louisville probably helped. Our troops finished unloading, then withdrew. This Allied TF then bombarded Kavieng expending the majority of its ammunition. Meanwhile, 4 IJN cruisers were leading another amphib TF through the area enroute to Rabaul -

Day Time Surface Combat, near Rabaul at 106,125, Range 19,000 Yards

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
SOC-1 Seagull: 3 destroyed

Japanese Ships
CA Aoba
CA Kinugasa, Shell hits 4
CA Furutaka
CA Kako
DD Oboro
DD Uzuki
DD Kikuzuki, Shell hits 1
DD Yuzuki, Shell hits 1, on fire

Allied Ships
CA Louisville, Shell hits 12, and is sunk
CA Canberra, Shell hits 45, heavy fires, heavy damage
CL Perth, Shell hits 1

It's hard to shoot back when you have no bullets!! Then CL Adelaide and a transport are encountered -

Day Time Surface Combat, near Rabaul at 106,125, Range 23,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CA Aoba
CA Kinugasa, Shell hits 1, on fire
CA Furutaka, Shell hits 2
CA Kako, Shell hits 1
DD Oboro
DD Uzuki
DD Kikuzuki
DD Yuzuki, heavy fires

Allied Ships
CL Adelaide, Shell hits 32, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAP Raranga, Shell hits 31, and is sunk

Was Adelaide out of ammo, too? Did Raranga pick up the original defenders of Kavieng? There were no defenders there when the naval guard force attacked. Was he trying to move them to Rabaul? Anyway, 4 Div/B is unloading at Rabaul and a base force is enroute from Truk.

Here's the situation at 0200 hrs, Dec 19 -



It's highly unlikely that a lone BB is wandering the South Pacific at this point. But, if it is, the still undetected KB will resolve the issue in the morning.

[Uncivil Engineer]

Whatever that was that showed as a BB on the mouseover, it's gone without interfering with the amphib landing at Rabaul.