HB (Axis) vs MM (Allies) No MM for now

[Harrybanana]

My opponent tells me that the convoy was open, but he has withdrawn his escorts so all his convoys are now unescorted. I am thinking I might do the same thing in our mirror game. Escorts do not directly prevent MS from being sunk. In other words, whether a convoy is escorted or not it will lose the same number of MS. So escorts only indirectly prevent MS from being sunk by damaging subs and forcing them to return to port early to repair damage. This is fine once escorts start damaging subs on a regular basis. But with 1939 tech (and even 1940 tech) and even with the sub chaser ASWs, sub losses are pretty rare. 4 months into this game I have had only 2 subs damaged and in the mirror game I haven't scored a hit on MMs subs at all. Meanwhile we have seen a combined 6 escorts sunk. So combining the games the Allies have lost 240 escort production and the Germans have lost 20 (is it 10 production per hit of damage?). Again, maybe this is not a large enough sample size. But even if 1 escort (40 production) was sunk for every 1 point of damage to a sub (10 production); I think you would mathematically still be better off pulling your escorts until you can obtain a more favourable ratio once you have 1941 tech or later. And keep in mind that it is not just the production cost, but the production time as well. A destroyed escort take 15 turns to replace, a damaged sub takes 1 or 2 turns to repair.

Edit: Having said all of the above, in another set of mirror games I am playing against a different opponent almost the exact opposite has occurred. After about 3 months I think we have suffered a combined 6 U-Boat losses against only a combined 1 escort loss. So luck obviously plays a big factor.

[Harrybanana]

JAN 19, 1940

My U-boats sink 2 MS. The Germans build another mechanized and 20 supply trucks. Most of my production over the next several months will now be spent on replacements, upgrades, supply trucks, landing craft, U-Boats (when shipyards become available) and (depending on battle losses) the odd infantry unit. The map of the next battle zone is shown below along with my build boxes for Germany and Italy. So far the BEF has not made an appearance in France.

[Harrybanana]

FEB 2, 1940

Another good turn for my U-Boats. They sink 7 MS and 1 escort.

[Harrybanana]

Or do they? The Casualty Report still shows only 5 total French and UK escorts sunk. MM informs me that he only had his last French escort active, so obviously it is unsinkable. The Germans build 40 supply trucks.

[Harrybanana]

FEB 16, 1940

I sink 4 MS. Germans build 30 supply trucks and the Italians 10.

[Harrybanana]

MAR 1, 1940

Bad turn for the U-Boats as 0 MS are sunk and I have to return the fleet to port to refuel. The good news is I place the U-Boat I built in the fall of 39. I meant to build 3 more LCs now that my shipyards had some room, but I forgot and instead built 20 more supply trucks. Snow turn. I am not ready to attack anyway. I want to be able to conquer Belgium in 1 turn and that is going to require more than 2 armour. I got my first tech advance: interceptors. Not a bad tech to have advance early, but I would have much preferred either breakthrough or heavy armour. Unfortunately, as you can see below, they are both lagging. The German tech levels are on the left and the Italian on the right.

[ComadrejaKorp]

HarryBanana in this mirror game you have already won the battle of the edition, it is perfect! Sharp images and good image montages.

Your strategy for the Netherlands is very good! it's a shame not to read your AAR before to have copied it!

Point 3 IMHO, 6 SS is not enough to do real damage.

[Harrybanana]

ORIGINAL: ComadrejaKorp

Point 3 IMHO, 6 SS is not enough to do real damage.

The plan is that by not invading Norway or the Netherlands I will deprive the UK of 78 MS and 3 escorts. I figure that is more or less the equivalent of building 3 more U-Boats. But admittedly this is a test and may not work.

[Harrybanana]

March 15, 1940

More snow. I reach German assault 40 tech. Germans build 30 supply trucks and 20 LCs

[ago1000]

ORIGINAL: Harrybanana
The plan is that by not invading Norway or the Netherlands I will deprive the UK of 78 MS and 3 escorts. I figure that is more or less the equivalent of building 3 more U-Boats. But admittedly this is a test and may not work.

This is a very interesting strategy. This reminds me of Dune and the planet Arrakis. Why should the Germans worry if the ore keeps flowing.
They are also not getting two patrol groups. Even if they were to invade in Jan 39, your losses in ore production are 1/5 of what they have lost. It will be interesting to see if and when the Allies are going to invade.

[ComadrejaKorp]

I did not think about that, I did not know that Holland delivered more merchants now, your plan sounds good, my numbers:

Not attacking Holland Axis saves:
- 1 DD = 300pp
-30mm = 300pp
-3 Escort = 120pp
-Not attack not casualties = + - 80pp
Total 800pp (also there will be no losses of SS killing merchant marine, and Allies will suffer losses if they want beachhead in Amsterdam, that area will defend itself, Axis will save garrisons)

Attacking Holland Axis would win the whole game:
-3pp +% E.r. = 4pp * 155 turns = 620pp

HarryBanana sure will correct my numbers (:
It really seems like a great plan to me !!

[Flaviusx]

Bad idea.

The Allies will invade and take those nice big level 9 ports down the line if you leave them alone.

Economics isn't everything. Logistics matter, too.

[ComadrejaKorp]

Usually I would think like you (I usually invade Norway for example, it gives many strategic possibilities), but this case seems very advantageous for Axis, he can leave this invasion for later and take advantage on BoA and a stronger Barbarossa.
Maybe I'm wrong, we'll see how it works.

[Harrybanana]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Bad idea.

The Allies will invade and take those nice big level 9 ports down the line if you leave them alone.

Economics isn't everything. Logistics matter, too.

You're probably right and I may have to invade Holland at some point. Or maybe not, have to see how it plays out. Alvaro says he likes his games to provide the players with lots of options and this one certainly does.

[Harrybanana]

MAR 29, 1940

Rain. 1 MS sunk. The Germans build 30 supply trucks and 10 LC. The problem with having the LCs building is that it will be awhile before I can build any more subs.

[Harrybanana]

APR 12, 1940

Snow. The U-Boats have another good turn sinking 8 MS. Germany builds 30 supply trucks and a small inf corps. Italy builds a small corps. Forgot to mention that the BEF has arrived in France in strength. 5 units, 1 of which may be an HQ. I think maybe MM was not planning on using UK units in France, but changed his mind when he read Flaviusx's AAR. But I could be completely wrong about this. Either way it doesn't matter, looks like I will have a hard fight in France.

[kennonlightfoot]

The plan is that by not invading Norway or the Netherlands I will deprive the UK of 78 MS and 3 escorts. I figure that is more or less the equivalent of building 3 more U-Boats. But admittedly this is a test and may not work.

Probably a little gamey but works. Also, probably needs the Belgium event added for the Netherlands so you can't just attack one.

[Harrybanana]

I don't think it is gamey at all. It certainly was not a foregone conclusion when the War began that Germany would invade either Norway or the Netherlands. After all they didn't invade either in WWI. I also don't think that the Netherlands would have entered the War if Belgium alone was invaded. Indeed they probably would have just heaved a big sigh of relief, just like they did in WWI. It is different if the Germans invade the Netherlands alone because everyone would then know that Belgium was next target.

[kennonlightfoot]

The gamey part is the German knows because its in the rules that Belgium won't join. Germany invaded the Netherlands when they went into Belgium because they could afford to assume that Belgium wouldn't join the Allies and give the French and British a much shorter better defended river line.

It would be an interesting scenario to play though. Netherlands invaded and Belgium joins the Allies so they can move up to the German border.

[malkarma]

Actually this is the present scenario. You DOW Netherlands and Belgium will joion the allies.

Maybe you was thinking about the opposite? By opposite I mean that you DOW Belgium and Netherlands join the allies.