WitP Fantasy vs Reality

Gary Grigsby's strategic level wargame covering the entire War in the Pacific from 1941 to 1945 or beyond.

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Chiteng
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Re: B-17

Post by Chiteng »

Originally posted by Mogami
Hi, What is interesting is design and actual use. The B-17 was not designed as a city bomber. (No American in this period would advocate designing and producing bombers intended to bomb civilian targets) It was meant to "Sweep the oceans of enemy ships" (Billy Mitchell spinning in his grave) The intent was for large numbers of B-17s to fly over enemy TF's and bomb. In practice there were never enough B-17's in the Pacific for this. (And the German Navy never presented a suitable target)

Now I'm not really sure what the complaint is. In my PBEM games
(I am allied in all currently active games) I have only flown perhaps a half dozen naval strikes with B-17's (the smallest contained 60 bombers the largest 104-my attempt to use the weapon as designed) The most bomb hits I've seen for a single mission was 4. (TF in port not open water)(range 19)


That is because you dont put 2 and 2 together. WitP will allow
the player to build FAR more B-17 than they did historicly.
OR, the production in WitP will suck. Take your pick.
“It is clear that the individual who persecutes a man, his brother, because he is not of the same opinion, is a monster.”

Voltaire

'For those with faith, no proof is needed. For those without faith, no proof is enough'

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TIMJOT
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Re: Re: B-17

Post by TIMJOT »

Originally posted by Chiteng
That is because you dont put 2 and 2 together. WitP will allow
the player to build FAR more B-17 than they did historicly.
OR, the production in WitP will suck. Take your pick.


I see it being the other way around. If WitP allows a player to build "FAR" more B-17s than they did historically, then production in Witp will suck.

I would prefer that production have realistic limits and contraints or a rather not have it in at all. Personally I do not fear a all B-17 strategy and would be delighted if an opponent adopted one.
HMSWarspite
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Re: Re: Re: B-17

Post by HMSWarspite »

Originally posted by TIMJOT
I see it being the other way around. If WitP allows a player to build "FAR" more B-17s than they did historically, then production in Witp will suck.

I would prefer that production have realistic limits and contraints or a rather not have it in at all. Personally I do not fear a all B-17 strategy and would be delighted if an opponent adopted one.


If the prod system in WitP allows you to build lots of B17, this is not a problem to me, so long as it reflects the real consequences. Conversion of plants would take months, 1 B17 = 4 fighters for engines, and 8-10 for crew. The supply usage would be horrendous. As long as these effects are there, I suspect JPN would absolutely love it.
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Drongo
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Post by Drongo »

Posted by Chiteng
"This was the first I'd seen that you were quoting him. I'd seen a post elsewhere in which you were "flatly stating it" as an established fact without a reference to Morrison."
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

So?


It was an observation.

Had I seen you mention that your view of this particular element of UV's "unreality" was based around S. E. Morisons "statement", I could have pointed out from the beginning that the view was not factually correct.

Instead, I was allowing for the possibility that the opinion was your own and may well have been based on a solid knowledge of all available sources on the subject. In effect, that you may have come across some evidence that disproved the examples I knew of and showed that only one ship was really ever hit.

The facts are then, that small groups of B-17s operating at medium to high altitudes were able to hit naval targets that were underway on multiple occasions. The fact that several of these targets were warships of various sizes should show you that your original AAR (which involved a single hit on a slow moving transport) was entirely feasible when compared to history. If they did hit warships underway, they could (and did) hit moving transports.

I do think that large CAP and Flak concentrations should have a greater effect on strike accuracy. I do think that there should be a chance of damaged aircraft aborting their run, rather than leaving it to just a morale failure. I do think that heavy bomber use below the 6k mark should require some form of special training before being allowed. I do think that the ability of heavy bombers to routinely smash bases with ease should be at least reviewed by 2x3/Matrix, as should the current way that fatigue affects are handled for very long range strikes.

These are just my preferences which I think would improve the historical feel of the game but I can live without them.

As to the 6k + altitude anti-shipping strike accuracy for B-17s, I don't see them regularly getting hit rates that differ from the historical.

You personally may not like it but to change that aspect to your satisfaction would just mean we would be left with results that aren't historical, something you've argued against the whole time.

Posted by Mogami
Now I'm not really sure what the complaint is. In my PBEM games (I am allied in all currently active games) I have only flown perhaps a half dozen naval strikes with B-17's (the smallest contained 60 bombers the largest 104-my attempt to use the weapon as designed) The most bomb hits I've seen for a single mission was 4. (TF in port not open water)(range 19)


That's been my experience as well. As part of the UV 2.3 beta test, I ran a series of ten strikes of 100+ B-17s (all with 75+ exp and starting fatigue 0) at 6000 ft from Cooktown against an IJN CV force sitting in Port Moresby. The CV TF consisted of all of the main 6 IJN fleet carriers and 9 DD escorts.

To ensure that the (unescorted) B-17 strikes would launch, no Japanese CAP was put up, the only defence was the TFs flak.

Of the 10 strikes -
5 missed all the ships in the TF
2 reported that they hit a CV but in fact inflicted no damage at all
1 strike managed a single hit on a DD (50% damage)
1 got a single hit on a CV which caused only 11 sys damage
1 got a single hit on a CV which caused 30% damage with very minor fires and flooding.

Each strike would cost the USN an average of 8 B-17s destroyed with another 40 damaged. This, combined with a fatigue of 50+, would effectively leave the B-17 force incapable of any major effort for several days (which is why each mission had to be started by re-loading a save of the turn prior to any strike).

Hardly an effective way of hurting a CV TF.

A similar set of tests that I ran for strikes at 100 feet were a strange affair. The only targets attacked in the CV TF were the 9 DDs which the B-17s both strafed and occasionally hit with bombs (normally 2/3 of the DDs suffered med damage through to being crippled or sunk). Not only did the CVs avoid being attacked, the US suffered an average loss of 20+ a/c destroyed and 60+ damaged. Fatigue was once again high with morale plummeting into the teens.

When the tests were run at 1000 ft, the trade off for the US was at it's best. While the B-17s would regularly have about 20 a/c destroyed and 60+ damaged, they would normally manage to hit 2 CVs, sometimes with as many as 2 or 3 bombs. This is the point when you were glad that most IJN CV TFs would probably be well escorted, have good CAP and normally not be sitting docked in a port that's well in range of allied strikes.
Have no fear,
drink more beer.
Chiteng
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Re: Re: Re: B-17

Post by Chiteng »

Originally posted by TIMJOT
I see it being the other way around. If WitP allows a player to build "FAR" more B-17s than they did historically, then production in Witp will suck.

I would prefer that production have realistic limits and contraints or a rather not have it in at all. Personally I do not fear a all B-17 strategy and would be delighted if an opponent adopted one.


Sounds like we will now start to debate what 'realistic' production
means. There will be no solution or resolution in such a debate.
Everyone has his own opinion.

But If I am NOT allowed to produce the ships I want to, and if I am forced to produce soley historical production, 'MY' opinion
is that will suck.
“It is clear that the individual who persecutes a man, his brother, because he is not of the same opinion, is a monster.”

Voltaire

'For those with faith, no proof is needed. For those without faith, no proof is enough'

French Priest

"Statistic
Chiteng
Posts: 1174
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2001 10:00 am
Location: Raleigh,nc,usa

Post by Chiteng »

Originally posted by Drongo
Posted by Chiteng

So?


It was an observation.

Had I seen you mention that your view of this particular element of UV's "unreality" was based around S. E. Morisons "statement", I could have pointed out from the beginning that the view was not factually correct.

Instead, I was allowing for the possibility that the opinion was your own and may well have been based on a solid knowledge of all available sources on the subject. In effect, that you may have come across some evidence that disproved the examples I knew of and showed that only one ship was really ever hit.

The facts are then, that small groups of B-17s operating at medium to high altitudes were able to hit naval targets that were underway on multiple occasions. The fact that several of these targets were warships of various sizes should show you that your original AAR (which involved a single hit on a slow moving transport) was entirely feasible when compared to history. If they did hit warships underway, they could (and did) hit moving transports.

I do think that large CAP and Flak concentrations should have a greater effect on strike accuracy. I do think that there should be a chance of damaged aircraft aborting their run, rather than leaving it to just a morale failure. I do think that heavy bomber use below the 6k mark should require some form of special training before being allowed. I do think that the ability of heavy bombers to routinely smash bases with ease should be at least reviewed by 2x3/Matrix, as should the current way that fatigue affects are handled for very long range strikes.

These are just my preferences which I think would improve the historical feel of the game but I can live without them.

As to the 6k + altitude anti-shipping strike accuracy for B-17s, I don't see them regularly getting hit rates that differ from the historical.

You personally may not like it but to change that aspect to your satisfaction would just mean we would be left with results that aren't historical, something you've argued against the whole time.

Posted by Mogami


That's been my experience as well. As part of the UV 2.3 beta test, I ran a series of ten strikes of 100+ B-17s (all with 75+ exp and starting fatigue 0) at 6000 ft from Cooktown against an IJN CV force sitting in Port Moresby. The CV TF consisted of all of the main 6 IJN fleet carriers and 9 DD escorts.

To ensure that the (unescorted) B-17 strikes would launch, no Japanese CAP was put up, the only defence was the TFs flak.

Of the 10 strikes -
5 missed all the ships in the TF
2 reported that they hit a CV but in fact inflicted no damage at all
1 strike managed a single hit on a DD (50% damage)
1 got a single hit on a CV which caused only 11 sys damage
1 got a single hit on a CV which caused 30% damage with very minor fires and flooding.

Each strike would cost the USN an average of 8 B-17s destroyed with another 40 damaged. This, combined with a fatigue of 50+, would effectively leave the B-17 force incapable of any major effort for several days (which is why each mission had to be started by re-loading a save of the turn prior to any strike).

Hardly an effective way of hurting a CV TF.

A similar set of tests that I ran for strikes at 100 feet were a strange affair. The only targets attacked in the CV TF were the 9 DDs which the B-17s both strafed and occasionally hit with bombs (normally 2/3 of the DDs suffered med damage through to being crippled or sunk). Not only did the CVs avoid being attacked, the US suffered an average loss of 20+ a/c destroyed and 60+ damaged. Fatigue was once again high with morale plummeting into the teens.

When the tests were run at 1000 ft, the trade off for the US was at it's best. While the B-17s would regularly have about 20 a/c destroyed and 60+ damaged, they would normally manage to hit 2 CVs, sometimes with as many as 2 or 3 bombs. This is the point when you were glad that most IJN CV TFs would probably be well escorted, have good CAP and normally not be sitting docked in a port that's well in range of allied strikes.
[/QUOTE]

NONE of that matters if they were able to get a hit on a Jap CV.
The CV would be effectively removed from operation.
The number of B-17 lost would not matter, the supply cost would not matter. Depending on WHICH CV was hit it could effectively curtail operations. Because it is alot easier to replace B-17s
than it is to fix a CV.
“It is clear that the individual who persecutes a man, his brother, because he is not of the same opinion, is a monster.”

Voltaire

'For those with faith, no proof is needed. For those without faith, no proof is enough'

French Priest

"Statistic
Chiteng
Posts: 1174
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2001 10:00 am
Location: Raleigh,nc,usa

Post by Chiteng »

Originally posted by Drongo
Posted by Chiteng

So?



It was an observation.


.
[/QUOTE]

You proceed from a false premise. I do not routinely spam
people with endless quotes or links to some 'source'
'IF' I mention anyone or anything, that is a rarity.
I have learned from long experience that such debates lead no where. If you site some 'evidence' (usually annecdotal)
then the other poster will do everything he can to find some source indeed any source that 'refutes' the position that he doesnt like.

Since for ME, the final arbiter of ALL wargame design, is JFD,
to defeat me all you need do if find some JFD reference that proves your point. It really is that simple.

I see no purpose in endless debates upon 'reality' that are totally subjective and cannot be 'proven' to any degree.

I see things in totally different terms Drongo.

I know, because of my educational background, that the B-17
did NOT dominate the Pacific Theater. The B-17's at Pearl were used for Recon, the B-17 belonging to Mac's command were either destroyed or evacuated. PERIOD.

They did not execute surgical strikes of opportunity upon
IJN capital ships.

Therefore....when I see that happening in a game, I know there is a problem. When I see it start to impact operations,
I start to think the game isnt historical, but 'gamey'
UV is one if the most 'gamey' wargames I have ever seen.

Where are the endless Liberty ships? They are not there.
Except that of course they WERE there.
I could go on, but the point is this.

People seem to think that because I refuse to change my mind,
regardless of what 'they' consider 'evidence', that somehow
I am being obdurate.

Not at all, because you see from MY point of view, their 'evidence' isnt as convincing as they think its is, I have my own sources,
and it is THEY that are being obdurate.

If being obdurate is bad, then every detractor I have is just as bad =)
“It is clear that the individual who persecutes a man, his brother, because he is not of the same opinion, is a monster.”

Voltaire

'For those with faith, no proof is needed. For those without faith, no proof is enough'

French Priest

"Statistic
Drongo
Posts: 1391
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Location: Melb. Oztralia

Post by Drongo »

Posted by Chiteng
NONE of that matters if they were able to get a hit on a Jap CV. The CV would be effectively removed from operation.
The number of B-17 lost would not matter, the supply cost would not matter. Depending on WHICH CV was hit it could effectively curtail operations. Because it is alot easier to replace B-17s
than it is to fix a CV.
I do not understand your pessimistic logic.

I'm wondering how you play the game if you live in fear of this certain hit on a CV which, in your example, would only seem to occur right at a critical moment in an operation and on the critical CV.

Maybe a healthy dose of play as the allies in a PBEM will give you a proper perspective on what B-17s are really best suited for. Come back then and let us know.
You proceed from a false premise. I do not routinely spam
people with endless quotes or links to some 'source'
'IF' I mention anyone or anything, that is a rarity.
I have learned from long experience that such debates lead no where. If you site some 'evidence' (usually annecdotal)
then the other poster will do everything he can to find some source indeed any source that 'refutes' the position that he doesnt like.


No, you don't routinely spam people with endless quotes. You seem to believe your opinion is sufficient for that purpose.

However, in this case you flatly stated a fact as being true and therefore justification for your continual arguing along those lines. All I attempted to do was show you that what you stated was not historical fact so as to remove that excuse for your spamming.
Since for ME, the final arbiter of ALL wargame design, is JFD, to defeat me all you need do if find some JFD reference that proves your point. It really is that simple.
You must have wowed them in the debating class.
Have no fear,
drink more beer.
Chiteng
Posts: 1174
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2001 10:00 am
Location: Raleigh,nc,usa

Post by Chiteng »

Originally posted by Drongo
Posted by Chiteng


I do not understand your pessimistic logic.

I'm wondering how you play the game if you live in fear of this certain hit on a CV which, in your example, would only seem to occur right at a critical moment in an operation and on the critical CV.

Maybe a healthy dose of play as the allies in a PBEM will give you a proper perspective on what B-17s are really best suited for. Come back then and let us know.



No, you don't routinely spam people with endless quotes. You seem to believe your opinion is sufficient for that purpose.

However, in this case you flatly stated a fact as being true and therefore justification for your continual arguing along those lines. All I attempted to do was show you that what you stated was not historical fact so as to remove that excuse for your spamming.



You must have wowed them in the debating class.


I didnt take debate class. I did join the debate team yes.
None of our topics concerned Wargame design.

In debate there ARE standards for evidence and for presentation.
No matter how good your argument is, calling the other debater names will cause a loss.
“It is clear that the individual who persecutes a man, his brother, because he is not of the same opinion, is a monster.”

Voltaire

'For those with faith, no proof is needed. For those without faith, no proof is enough'

French Priest

"Statistic
mdiehl
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Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2000 8:00 am

Post by mdiehl »

Sounds like the results from strategic bombers hitting ships in port may understate bomber effectiveness. Anyone know which ships were sunk by strategic bombers?

Combinedfleet.com says BB Haruna was sunk by TF38. Weintraub (Long Day's Journey into War) attributes it to a B-24.
Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

Didn't we have this conversation already?
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