sveint (Axis) vs Villain (Allies)

[sveint]

ORIGINAL: ncc1701e
Is France now too strong from your point of view?

No France is fine. Garrisoned infanry are no threat, they basically cannot attack, nor move.

[Villain]

ORIGINAL: sveint

An occational infantry surrender is no big issue. But tanks overrun by infantry?

Inf overrunning tanks is kinda odd however, iirc it was the third attack at 7-1 odds and this likely would have been a high odds shatter previously.

The French naval bombardment helped a bunch otherwise I wouldn't have had decent odds.

[Nirosi]

An occational infantry surrender is no big issue. But tanks overrun by infantry?

It is not in the updated manual, but it does seem to me from the results in our game that overrun is simply the new name for shattered due to high odds. So just a question of naming, nothing has changed I believe, seen France kill tanks before the legitimate way (High odds). Usually takes quite a few attacks however, and of course some luck especially at exactly the minium required of 7vs1, but possible and happened before...

Shattered probably now is only used for the long retreat paths I would assume. At least now we know the difference of the result since the name is different.

So I believe the overrun is explained with the same rules as before rules, but the surrender when a retreat path is available is very confusing to me. Should have gone to the queue (shatter) from everything we know of the rules.

[sveint]

Late June, another port seized. There was a very weak division there but we couldn't make it retreat on our first attack with the paratrooper so had to land a full corps.
Southampton unfortunately has a small corps.

[sveint]

Our paratrooper shatters to a 2-1 attack. No really. First a panzer corps that shouldn't have been overrun, then this. We'll see if it continues.

We sacrifice two naval units to bring a corps into Cardiff.

[stjeand]

Paratrooper shattered due to not being able to retreat...and it apparently wanted too.
Even at 1 to 1 retreats can occur, though rare. Strange though 2 to 1...with the naval units there I suspect the odds were much higher.
HOPEFULLY because was in supply it appears in your deployment queue?

As for the panzer...sorry but 7 to 1 means it will lose and it should.
Not sure about the surrender odds vs retreat / shatter / overrun though.

[sveint]

Our corps in Worthing surrenders, I don't expect much else by now.

And who attacks at 1 to 1 and expects anything but a massacre? Apparently in this reality the defenders lose.

[Flaviusx]

This opportunistic Sea Lion is looking too clever by half. 60 PPs lost on the amphibs, not including the various corps getting forced to surrender. And the British have this invasion well contained. It cannot be properly supported until France falls. This is a very expensive way to convince the BEF to abandon France. I think it is not worth it. I would be evacuating rather than throwing more good money after bad.

[Villain]

ORIGINAL: sveint
And who attacks at 1 to 1 and expects anything but a massacre? Apparently in this reality the defenders lose.

Got lucky for sure however I wanted to reduce some effectiveness on your inf while it wasn't entrenched to make it easier later since I should regain effectiveness faster. The UK needs to do things now while you're still occupied in France.

I'm also more and more convinced that the odds might not accurately reflect the actual combat effects of Carrier Ground Support or Naval Bombardment.

[Nirosi]

Like Villain, I believe the shore support made the difference. Seems quite strong and probably improved the odds by at least 1.

However, even 1vs1 attacks are not necessarily a massacre. They rarely do anything serious to the defenders, but they do not always end in a massacre for the attackers. In USSR 1vs1 odds the first winter are quite effective to lower German reediness and improve the unit's XP at often very reasonable loses.

[sveint]

Load any scenario and do lots of 1to1 attacks. Extremely rare to get results like this. Every Allied attack in the game so far has been an against-the-odds victory.

[Nirosi]

Extremely rare to get results like this

O yes, I agree completely that this result was very unlikely. This is why I believe it was probably more that 1vs1 due to naval support (maybe planes too only for one side?). Hard to say without been able to open the hood but quite clear that Mars was not on your side for this one [&:]

I was just saying that 1vs1 does not mean the attacker will lose a lot of steps (be a massacre), often it just means that the defender will be safe (obviously not in this case[X(]). I often do 1vs1 attacks in the soviet winter and loses are often enough quite reasonable for the attackers.

[Villain]

Sadly Svein has decided to abandon our game.

I can’t say I blame him as the Axis needs luck and very short quick wins in order to make the most of their time and be able to build and have the most units available on the eastern front.

In summary I did learn a few things that I'd like to share
Axis:
An early March Axis attack on the Benelux with only two armor likely won’t take Brussels.
Putting German armor on the coast without a retreat path is an invitation to have them killed. Not all allied units in France will be in garrison mode, certainly not the BEF.
I should test this however I feel (gut) that Rommel might not be the best HQ to have for France. 7 tenacity would seem to increase losses which the Germans should be trying to avoid in France.
Invading the UK while being out of range of fighters, bombers, navy, HQs and while France is still in the war and Italy out is very adventurous.
Any German unit in the UK is at risk of having only Basic Supply and may be weakened over time. Even a 9 port can have its supply reduced if there’s a 9 fleet floating off it.
Some (1 or 2) German bombers should be on “automatic” to support units in case they’re counter-attacked by the allies.
Germany should keep ZoC on the French units in the Maginot line to prevent the French from freely moving their units around.
I feel that with the new ASW if Germany going to be serious about the BoA they’re going to need to research long range subs.

Allies
Use deception. Breaking corps into divisions can mislead your opponent about your actual troop deployments.
The UK doesn’t really need an HQ in France if the BEF is close to the coast.
The Belgians become stronger if they survive a turn and have a chance to be placed into garrison mode, disband units that can’t be on the front to use the pps to upgrade/repair to the latest inf tech.
Look at the report on forces and guess whether the Axis player is building landing ships or submarines. By timing when a sub could/should have arrived.
For some reason, a UK sub farther away intercepted (and failed) to locate an invasion on Worthing when a 9 fleet of BBs and CAs were right next to Worthing. I suspect that this is due to the 9 fleet having lower effectiveness. I’m going to test this as it surprised me and allowed an invasion that wouldn’t have been.
I usually have the UK send ~100 Oil to Canada and France and then forget about it. Just send enough for them to function or you might be on fumes if a Sealion happens. I had about two turns of oil left with nearly all ships at sea over many turns.
If Sealion happens don’t bother chasing the German fleet. Support your units, blockade the ports and prevent more units coming ashore and/or them escaping back to France. MM are useless if you lose the UK and the war.
If Sealion happens use your Oil Supply ships to keep your 9 fleets at sea so they can be useful.
Buy ~3 lnf corps relatively early and keep them the UK. Having at least a small corps on ports and divs on likely invasion/para hexes is probably the best. Prior to Sealion I had bought an armor (to arrive next turn) and a bomber to arrive in late august which in retrospect was nearly fatal.
Don’t overspend on the BoA early. I had 32 escorts but the axis only had 3 subs and only ever attacked 2 routes.
The French can run out of manpower if the battle for France takes a long time. Disband garrisoned and reduced units to recoup MP and PP to repair.

Thanks again to Svein for an entertaining and enlightening game.

PS. I was seriously considering a UK invasion west of Cardiff with support from 2x 9 fleets to retake the city and trap the armor which would have been glorious but alas we’ll never know.

[Flaviusx]

I would have also resigned, for whatever it is worth. The Sea Lion was a disaster and not really one you could recover from. I'm glad somebody tried this, if only to prove that it is a very bad idea. If it had been limited to a single non panzer corps to bait the BEF out of France, then maybe worth it to accelerate the fall of France, although still pricey. Actually trying make a real invasion out of it when it cannot be properly supported, not so much.

The combat odds are imo not properly calculating the effects of naval bombardment, and the Royal Navy is not a joke in this kind of situation.

[Nirosi]

Allies

For the Allies (UK actually), I would add (when possible of course) to keep a bomber exclusively for naval interceptions with just enough range to protect the coast.

The bombers create havoc on troops' readiness if they can get trough and bomb them still in their ships! Even if a unit still managed to survive the bombing with 2/3 of its strength, its readiness can be as low as 10% with therefore close to 0 for CV.

All you have to do then, is send in a little girl with a slingshot at the beach and ask for their surrender. Chances are they will comply!