Through a glass, darkly (vs Soviet AI 110/120)

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loki100
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T24 - next step winter

Post by loki100 »

T24 – 30 November 1941

So another natural break point.

Main features were appalling weather with 3 turns of heavy rain followed by a blizzard. Only the last 2 saw ground conditions that allowed for any combat.

The result was whatever fantasies I had about making some VP gains in November didn't happen.

Operational Issues

Finished off the last of the pockets, took Kharkov and 2 probably pointless offensives. AGN tried to clear more of the Ladoga ports but sheer numbers plus poor terrain meant this needed entire Pzr Corps to take a single hex. AGS tried to push towards Stalino but a lack of armoured support (1 PG mostly tied up in the Kharkov battles) and strong defensive lines reduced that to very little. Guess the best that can be said for both, is they gained some space I can easily give up.

AGN mostly set up as a regimental defense. On the good side is a decent depot structure and mostly I can readily cede ground.

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AGC is stronger but strung out. Rzhev is vulnerable, as you can see VP locations like Kursk and Orel might as well be on the moon.

Have decided to use the mot divisions as a reserve here, most of the Pzrs pulled off the line, my intention is only to use 2 or 3 divisions in the worst weather in an attempt to preserve something for 1942.

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AGS, as above its just taken Kharkov and PG1 is weak as a result. This could get ugly quickly given the terrain and a lack of reserves.

Not shown but the Rumanian 3A has a small bridgehead on the Taman peninsula.

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Context

Lets start with the VP situation. Well I won't lose on 1 Jan 42, but I will pretty soon once the initiative changes. Whatever happens the Soviets will now sit on a net +6 time bonus (ie I won't get any and they will get the maximum) for Orel, Kursk, Stalino, Rostov and Kalinin- so that is -30 even before the values of the cities.

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Managed to remove over 3 million Soviets and over 2.5 permanent. As we'll see, makes no difference.

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Air losses high but not worried about LW losses in the second part of 1941. They will have the winter off and a lot of new planes become available.

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I'd say my hunt for secondary pockets paid off. In total that is almost 150 Soviet divisions destroyed. I've been disbanding a few of the more exotic artillery battalions to concentrate the very heavy guns into a few remaining units.

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OOB, so I've removed 3 million Soviets and they have 4.3 million on the map (and have just had the +500k). Any views on how to avoid this outcome greatfully received.

On my side, some care in tank management means the Pzr divisions are still mostly powerful.

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And there we are, another 500,000 so that means inevitably a Red Army well over 5.5m come March 1942.

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Logistics

I've substantially changed my approach to something closer to Carlkay's model of prioritise rail repair and depot creation. I've also set more depots to priority 4 than I have in the past.

Reasonably content with that situation.

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Spreadsheet. Again, fairly content with the amount I am pushing into the USSR. Presume it will drop as the blizzard/deep snow malus hits.

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Trucks. I have 90% of unit need (297k/322k) and 46k of these are off gaining supplies. I've lost 65k and Soviets 90k (39k of these have been captured).

Balance

What really worries me is I can't see anyway I could have reached the historical lines. AGN has actually come closest but the rest are out of reach. I know I opted to go for pockets not geography but there was never any sense that the AI was off balance (& this is not the line forming issue, its the sheer strength of the defensive stacks and having multiple lines).
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M60A3TTS
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RE: Through a glass, darkly (vs Soviet AI 110)

Post by M60A3TTS »

ORIGINAL: loki100
Worth noting that at 110, the Soviet AI gets a few (four if I recall) free rifle divisions each turn, so its a lot harder to keep the AI below 3m.

Seems a little over the top along with everything else you are having to deal with, but ok.
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RE: Through a glass, darkly (vs Soviet AI 110)

Post by GibsonPete »

Thany you taking the time to do this. Q: Did motorization make any difference in the scenario? Perhaps a problem with lack of AP's, fewer(or delayed) depot creation, or MP loss in units. Do you consider temp motorization a game changer or just a gimmick?
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RE: Through a glass, darkly (vs Soviet AI 110)

Post by loki100 »

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS

ORIGINAL: loki100
Worth noting that at 110, the Soviet AI gets a few (four if I recall) free rifle divisions each turn, so its a lot harder to keep the AI below 3m.

Seems a little over the top along with everything else you are having to deal with, but ok.

problem/reality is it comes as a package, I'm starting to think it would be good to have an AI menu, so 110 morale =don't really care (few less routs); line forming (too me an essential bonus); free rifle divisions (a step too far at 110, add it to 120)?

And at 120, pick around auto pass leadership checks (a good one as it protects the AI from poor chain of command design), 'tactical nukes' (good for the axis, less sure for the Soviet AI)
ORIGINAL: GibsonPete

Thany you taking the time to do this. Q: Did motorization make any difference in the scenario? Perhaps a problem with lack of AP's, fewer(or delayed) depot creation, or MP loss in units. Do you consider temp motorization a game changer or just a gimmick?


My instinct is the 2 motorised divisions got AGN to Novgorod when I'd probably have been stalled in the heavy woods, so that is something, but its scarcely the end of the game done at the divisional level and set in place on T1.

The cost has been a delayed depot network and that I've had to mostly just put up with the at start leadership chain, a few changes in the most important ones but mostly had to put up with what was given.
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RE: Through a glass, darkly (vs Soviet AI 110)

Post by jlbhung »

ORIGINAL: loki100
ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS
ORIGINAL: loki100
Worth noting that at 110, the Soviet AI gets a few (four if I recall) free rifle divisions each turn, so its a lot harder to keep the AI below 3m.

Seems a little over the top along with everything else you are having to deal with, but ok.

problem/reality is it comes as a package, I'm starting to think it would be good to have an AI menu, so 110 morale =don't really care (few less routs); line forming (too me an essential bonus); free rifle divisions (a step too far at 110, add it to 120)?

And at 120, pick around auto pass leadership checks (a good one as it protects the AI from poor chain of command design), 'tactical nukes' (good for the axis, less sure for the Soviet AI)

I strongly support your idea to have an AI menu. My experience of playing at morale = 120 was that I am happy with the auto pass leadership checks but felt uncomfortable with the "tactical nukes". The proposed AI menu could let the players finetune the help they want the AI to have in playing the game. I would further suggest to delink the various options in the menu from the morale level.

Separately, I note that with the limitations of the AI, sometimes the immediate HQs is far from the frontline combating units. This may prevent the HQs from sending support units to a battle and also affect the leadership rolls in the combat. It would be nice to have an option to let the AI ignore the distance from the immediate HQs in the various checks (this differs from the auto pass in that the leadership roll could still fail based on a leader's ratings).

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RE: Through a glass, darkly (vs Soviet AI 110)

Post by loki100 »

I was partly wrong in the post above. the extra RD come onto the map as shells so the AI needs to find the manpower and ocmbat elements - so not quite as dramatic a result as I suggested
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T32 - a lot of Snow

Post by loki100 »

T32 – 25 January 1942

Another good break point, the worst of the winter behind me.

Had a solid block of blizzard turns from mid-December to mid-January, but equally had 4 turns with just snow (at least over most of the front).

Operational reports

18A/4PzrA were mostly left alone but 16A and 9A have been badly battered. Have had to commit most of the reinforcements here.

Really what has saved them is the poor terrain, that I had no reason not to fall back. To my surprise have clung to Rzhev – though it is still vulnerable.

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2 and 4A to the south have been driven back a bit but no real crisis.

The bulk of the armour in PzrA 3 and 4 has been resting all winter.

For PzrA 2 and 6A lost a lot of ground (and Kharkov) but have mostly managed to control the situation.

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11A and 17A (plus Ru 3A) has taken heavy losses and fallen back some distance. Fortunately it was a long way to anything that mattered so could just about manage without much of an armoured reserve.

Not shown, but lost the toehold on the Taman peninsula.

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Context

Losses not too bad, worst was losing an Italian division that couldn't retreat fast enough.

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Air losses, all I have on the map is German fighters, Stukas and transport planes.

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OOB – well I'm pretty doomed. That will easily be 6m come May. Broadly have managed the Pzrs with enough care that they should recover once I start assigning the replacement battalions.

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Manpower pools. Should be able to replace my losses (650,000 of the reserve is German). Again, by being fairly ruthless have managed the refit cycle. I've basically pulled the 6 weakest German divisions back to refit regardless of the tactical situation. May have lost ground but don't really have a massive backlog to refit.

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Not a great tank situation, but it should be ok.

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Logistics

Generally has worked ok. I have almost everything on priority #1 (apart from the Pzr Armies at #2). No point demanding what I can't supply.

One big point, I am now sure that the solution for the winter is not to fuss about having enough level 2 forts, install a robust rail and depot network. This keeps a flow of replacements, makes it easier to refit and generally builds in redundancy. A cluster of depots all receiving 2-2.5k tons of freight can supply a lot of your army.

I've not consistently used super depots except when that made particular sense and the FBD have mostly been setting up parallel rail lines and depots.

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Wee analysis. Reasonable correlation between blizzard and what the NSS manage to send out.

Besides at the front, I have 3 clusters of level 4 depots. One is around Minsk (with a lot of transport planes), same at Kiev. Final group around Warsaw. Every now and then I set these to #2 and that does help to regulate the flow over the border.

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Last post has an error re the AI, it gets shell divisions that it needs to fill out not at full strength.

AI started the winter quiet and didn't really attack till the first blizzard turn. Since then its attacked constantly. Last few turns I've risked local counter-attacks on weak or exposed formations.










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RE: T32 - a lot of Snow

Post by GibsonPete »

"One big point, I am now sure that the solution for the winter is not to fuss about having enough level 2 forts, install a robust rail and depot network. This keeps a flow of replacements, makes it easier to refit and generally builds in redundancy. A cluster of depots all receiving 2-2.5k tons of freight can supply a lot of your army."

Very useful. Something I will keep in mind.
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RE: T32 - a lot of Snow

Post by loki100 »

ORIGINAL: GibsonPete

"One big point, I am now sure that the solution for the winter is not to fuss about having enough level 2 forts, install a robust rail and depot network. This keeps a flow of replacements, makes it easier to refit and generally builds in redundancy. A cluster of depots all receiving 2-2.5k tons of freight can supply a lot of your army."

Very useful. Something I will keep in mind.

one of the things I really wanted to test, especially after the discussion in the fortifications thread in the War Room
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RE: T32 - a lot of Snow

Post by HardLuckYetAgain »

ORIGINAL: loki100

ORIGINAL: GibsonPete

"One big point, I am now sure that the solution for the winter is not to fuss about having enough level 2 forts, install a robust rail and depot network. This keeps a flow of replacements, makes it easier to refit and generally builds in redundancy. A cluster of depots all receiving 2-2.5k tons of freight can supply a lot of your army."

Very useful. Something I will keep in mind.

one of the things I really wanted to test, especially after the discussion in the fortifications thread in the War Room

What GibsonPete said 1000% & what you are doing. I have a redundant supply line in the North & Center turn 7 feeding my drive on Moscow. You will find that my advance doesn't suffer as bad as you think but my supply network is VERY robust, especially in the Center to Moscow. Redundancy is the way to go for sure!

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RE: T32 - a lot of Snow

Post by GibsonPete »

Good to know. I am Learning something useful everyday. I sometimes wonder if the Developers put some of these techniques (Temp Motorization, super depots & fort construction) in as red herrings. Nah... I am being paranoid.
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RE: T32 - a lot of Snow

Post by loki100 »

ORIGINAL: GibsonPete

Good to know. I am Learning something useful everyday. I sometimes wonder if the Developers put some of these techniques (Temp Motorization, super depots & fort construction) in as red herrings. Nah... I am being paranoid.

I've changed my view on super-depots for the Germans in 1941. They are useful but situational, its an incredibly useful way to bring in a batch of freight into a sector but on balance I now agree with Carlkay. A linked network of priority 4 depots works as well in most places.

I'm finding that each picks up around 2-3k tonnes of freight which is fine in most places and you can use your FBD to hook in secondary lines.

Its very different for the Soviets in 1943+ where you simply need those large depots, but also you have far more rail repair assets so its feasible to have one working on rail repair and the other sat still etc.
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RE: T32 - a lot of Snow

Post by glenhope »

ORIGINAL: GibsonPete

Good to know. I am Learning something useful everyday. I sometimes wonder if the Developers put some of these techniques (Temp Motorization, super depots & fort construction) in as red herrings. Nah... I am being paranoid.
Feb 42 as the Germans. I don't do SD's, forts seem useless, and I've used temp mot only to close pockets. I've concentrated on multiple rails, every railyard (2+) connected to the network and lots of depots behind the front. Holding the Russians back so far.
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T44 - some mud

Post by loki100 »

T44 – 19 April 1942

Another good break point as on the edge of the Spring rains. Weather overall has been variable. Blizzards all February which pushed 16A to the edge of disaster, March saw mostly cold/light snow but one turn of heavy rain (in the northern half of the front). April has been mostly dry, in the south even have patches of clear/clear, over most of the front cold/light snow.

Operationally, 16A almost fell apart and received most of the reinforcements. I stuck to my idea that units < a certain TOE had to refit, even at the cost of tactical problems and I think this ended up paying off. Other major disaster was for 11A but here I mostly just gave up terrain and just held onto the rail line running into the Crimea.

In March, the AI went over to the defense and pulled back in the Valdai. I encouraged it in this idea by attacking around Staraya Russa and west from Rzhev – not least if I left that salient I know how easily the AI can reinforce. Elsewhere, AGS has regained some ground and produced a sequence of small pockets.

Logistics

One thing I wanted to test was the impact of removing the malus on rail movement in April. I'll not report the details from now on but the NSS collectively sent out around 30k more freight as a result (this is now running around 175k per turn).

I've stopped making regular use of super-depots. I do sometimes but they are not a regular feature. I've actually gone over to something close to what the AI does of a cluster of priority 4 depots back from the front lines. I'm keeping the mobile units at 30+MP (and many at 40+), so that seems to work.

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Each of those picks up around 3k of freight, so that is a lot available to the formations on that sector. All helped by the FBD generating secondary rail connections.

I've also been studying intermediate depots. They work in one of two situations. If you set up a priority 4 depot and hook in local demand it will build up quite a lot that you can then release. Minsk is an eg, the transport planes clustered there (same at Kiev) give the impression of demand so freight builds up, set to priority 3 and a lot will be released.

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If you don't create a local demand, then even a #4 depot will not pick up much freight.

There is an exception that seems to occur a relatively isolated single track rail network. There, freight will fall into the intermediate depots as it cannot move much further. If those depots have relatively small railyard capacity nearby it will build up. You will most likely see this on the connection that probably runs Rumania to Kherson.

Army Supply chart. Reset most armies to #2 and the Pzrs to #3 a few turns ago.

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Rebuilding the army

Have used refit to keep Rumanian units to 60% TOE and then put the five worst German infantry divisions on refit and off the line. In combination this has sometimes left me with a weak front line but has done a decent job at allowing me to rebuild. The result is to have largely emptied my German manpower pool. Useful to have the Hungarians committed as they can reduce my reliance on Rumanians to fill in gaps.

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Tanks, I've let run down but last turn allocated 6 of the replacement battalions. Those due to be withdrawn can fend for themselves but the rest should be ok by May.

I've tried not to use them over winter but only a few have been left in urban hexes. Where I needed a mobile reserve I've used up the Motorised divisions.

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Truck situation.

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Less interesting on map stuff

By the end of February, the Soviets were at Velikie Luki and only a few hexes north of Smolensk. This got the bulk of my reinforcements and moved 4 PzrA and 3 PzrA to drive them back.

Originally with AGN, my idea was to see if I could take the last of the Ladoga ports and then maybe Leningrad. I know from recon there are a lot of Soviet units there so must be poor supply but equally important they are not available for deployment elsewhere. Problem is the route around Ladoga is held by 100+ cv defensive stacks.

In the end I attacked around Staraya Russa to encourage the AI to retreat (which it did). But clearly no point to really carrying on with this so my idea is to set up a reasonably short line and pull out the Pzrs. In the meantime 3 PzrA has secured the poor terrain around Rzhev and one option is to attack towards Kalinin. As in 1941, best to give the AI multiple things to worry over.

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Not much to say about 2 and 4 A to the south. It would be nice to take Bryansk but I suspect I'll only take what the AI gives up.

To the south, 6A and 2 PzrA trying to take Kursk and Orel – really says it all about my real progress.

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In the Ukraine, 1 Pzr A and 17A and 11A trying to take Kharkov and Stalino.

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Contextual Information

Losses.

Still not managed the 5m Soviet losses I was apparently meant to inflict in 1941.

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Which of course has the inevitable consequences.

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At the moment I am due to lose in October 1942 – I think we can forget about meeting any of the victory scores.

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RE: T44 - some mud

Post by HardLuckYetAgain »

What you posted in this snapshot is huge in my opinion. I have already been incorporating that into my current game. I think this works better than a super depot. You just save up for a bit before releasing. Then BAM!

Thanks as always for sharing


Below is Loki's snapshot

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RE: T44 - some mud

Post by GibsonPete »

I agree with HardLuckYetAgain. Your Depot build up and release appears to be the method to use. Carlkay is a genius. I am grateful to both you of you for sharing your tricks and tips. [&o]
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RE: T44 - some mud

Post by loki100 »

its taken me a lot of faffing around, but I'm now sure that is the combination of a potentially large depot AND local demand sets this up. You also need a large local railyard to carry the released stuff or it will be slow to redistribute.

But HLYA is right, in many ways this trumps a super depot. You don't have critical assets tied up and once its out of reach of the immediate front lines, the stock builds up till the moment when you want to release it.
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RE: T44 - some mud

Post by carlkay58 »

When spring of 42 comes you raise the priority of depots further back from the front lines and they will build up more supplies so your 42 offensive is well supplied. I was able to supply the deep thrust to the TC oilfields that way without any problems.

I appreciate being called a 'genius' but in reality it is many years of experience through WitW and WitE2 playtesting. I merely copied what the AI was doing - spamming depots - and then refined it a bit to make it more efficient.
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RE: T44 - some mud

Post by HardLuckYetAgain »

ORIGINAL: loki100

its taken me a lot of faffing around, but I'm now sure that is the combination of a potentially large depot AND local demand sets this up. You also need a large local railyard to carry the released stuff or it will be slow to redistribute.

But HLYA is right, in many ways this trumps a super depot. You don't have critical assets tied up and once its out of reach of the immediate front lines, the stock builds up till the moment when you want to release it.

Those level 2 railyards are "Huge" for the Germans. Riga for the North, Minsk for Center, Kiev for South. If you link the rail line with Odessa you get another HUGE level 2 railyard from Odessa in the South all early game. That is what I have done in my current game. If you notice I started my offense SE of Smolensk in my game. What am I after? I am after Kharkov. Why? Kharkov has a very large level 2 railyard and for the coming winter the Germans want that in their hands & start saving up supply for the coming winter. Add Dnep with another large level 2 railyard and build up supply for the winter you shouldnt have a big supply issue with all the negative effects during the blizzard with large amounts of supply close. At least that is my thinking. The trouble is taking them in time to be able to build up that supply.
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RE: T44 - some mud

Post by HardLuckYetAgain »

ORIGINAL: loki100

its taken me a lot of faffing around, but I'm now sure that is the combination of a potentially large depot AND local demand sets this up. You also need a large local railyard to carry the released stuff or it will be slow to redistribute.

But HLYA is right, in many ways this trumps a super depot. You don't have critical assets tied up and once its out of reach of the immediate front lines, the stock builds up till the moment when you want to release it.

Plus, A German FBD does NOT have the luxury of sitting around drawing supply when the Germans needs to get "all" rail repaired for redundancy. But that is just my 2 cents since my 10 cents isn't free ;-)
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