Odessa falls this week, but little was sacrificed.
Progress of the AGS against the historical benchmark. When I played my first game against Q-ball and tried my typical over-aggressive response in the south the German advance seemed roughly similar in pace, with the added Axis benefit of devouring much of what Southwestern Front brought to the fight.
This time I've left the forts, but otherwise tried to dance back out of range and dig in on the Dnepr.
So overall in the south, the Axis are only slightly ahead of historical progress. I hope the isolation of the motorized division will put AGS on the horns of a dilemma and hand Southwestern Front the initiative by getting a mechanized force rescue attempt. That should delay the Dnepr crossing and fall of Kiev for a few weeks if it happens.
I think if only the Axis allies attacked along this frontage the Soviets couldn't hold them hundreds of miles east into August. It's just not feasible under any scenario to get a historical pace in this region:

"War is never a technical problem only, and if in pursuing technical solutions you neglect the psychological and the political, then the best technical solutions will be worthless." - Hermann Balck