Can Japan win the grand campaign?

[Trugrit]

I am curious why the fortunes of off map theaters are modeled in WITW and WITE-2, but not the ETO for WITP-AE.

As Churchill and Roosevelt said Europe first, I would think unexpected events in the ETO could have a major impact on the modeled conflict of WITP-AE.

Comments?

The game handles the ETO mostly by withdrawals and reinforcements of ground, Air and Navy units.
Also, the political restrictions imposed on units and the opening of the Mediterranean (Below)

Historically, the fact is there were not any “unexpected events” that occurred in Europe that would have
had a “major impact” on the Pacific War.

The unexpected events move in the other direction.
The attack on Pearl Harbor caused a series of major impacts on the European war.

Give me a historical example of an “unexpected event” that occurred in the European theater
that had a “major impact” in the Pacific theater other than the surrender of Germany which
was by the time Paris was liberated an “expected” event.

In the Pacific War there were just two real large threats that might have happened:

1) If Japan had captured or significantly damaged the Panama Canal.
This is not modeled in WITP-AE.

2) What Winston Churchill called the most dangerous moment of the Pacific War when Japan
threatened to invade Ceylon. That would have moved Japanese forces too close to the vital
oil fields in the Persian Gulf and would have had a major impact.

That event is modeled in WITP-AE with a trip line in India. If the Japanese cross that line
major reinforcements will be pulled from Europe to meet the threat.

There are other trip lines in North America and Australia as well which are modeled in WITP-AE.

In game terms….I’ve never played WITW or WITE-2 so you would have to tell me if there
is an unexpected event or trip wire in those games that would shut down or pull major units
and resources from the Pacific War.

The only event that I can think of would be if Germany invaded Great Britain.
Correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t think that is modeled in those games.

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[BBfanboy]

The effect of the Europe First policy is modeled in the game. Firstly, you see it in unit withdrawals. Then there is the very slow buildup of reinforcements to deal with the Japanese tide. Why is it so hard to get Liberators to use for Nav Search until late 1942? Churchill was calling loudly for them to close the Atlantic "Black Gap" where no air search could reach.
So if you look at the production schedules of devices in the Industry/Troops/Resource Pool tab of the Intel report, the rates of production and arrival dates were set to simulate most of America's output going to the European theatre.
That alone required a great deal of research on the developers part. And it wasn't just that they didn't want to increase the complexity of the game, keeping the size of the game within a certain limit was also a necessity because computer storage space at the time was both small and expensive. Even if someone bought an external hard drive, the demands of the game during execution of turns made a good deal of RAM and a fast processor almost a necessity. That meant the potential buyer had to consider the cost of upgrading their computer too!

[Platoonist]

Deleted

[Platoonist]

In game terms….I’ve never played WITW or WITE-2 so you would have to tell me if there
is an unexpected event or trip wire in those games that would shut down or pull major units
and resources from the Pacific War.

Basically these games allow the Axis player to commit on map units to the other front or vice versa. So as the German player in WITW you could withdraw all the mountain units from the East Front box and use them in mountainous Italy where they would be more useful. By committing more units to the off map theater you can theorically delay the historical advance there although it's highly subject to luck.

[MarkShot]

Yes, WITW and WITE-2 does not have a Pacific Theater, but rather peripheral theaters for both the USA/UK or USSR Theaters respectively.

The only two possible directions (only slightly plausible) that might have made massive pulling of resources from the PTO a thing to do:

* Germany arriving at a deliverable fission weapon.

* Germany rocket technology improving to second generation ballistic delivery systems.

I say slightly plausible as we see things like jet aircraft. But it takes more than technologically, but its proper application; as the British demonstrated with their air defense system.

[Trugrit]

Yes, WITW and WITE-2 does not have a Pacific Theater, but rather peripheral theaters for both the USA/UK or USSR Theaters respectively.

The only two possible directions (only slightly plausible) that might have made massive pulling of resources from the PTO a thing to do:

* Germany arriving at a deliverable fission weapon.

* Germany rocket technology improving to second generation ballistic delivery systems.

I say slightly plausible as we see things like jet aircraft. But it takes more than technologically, but its proper application; as the British demonstrated with their air defense system.

That kind of speculation moves into the Alt-History or Fantasy genre.

WITP-AE is a “historical” wargame but the campaign games can go all the way
to May 1946 and the Japanese get turbojet engine fighter planes.

(The Japanese Shusei with the Tokyo Rocket engine) Maybe? Expermental.
(The Japanese Karyu with the NE turbojet engine)

The Allies get the P-80A Shooting Star in late 1945.

The Downfall scenario goes all the way to the last of August 1946.

Also….This game has a good editor and you can do some historical stretching
Through Mods. Things like German Battleships in the PTO...etc.
but in general you can not color too far outside the lines.

In WITP-AE the Treaty, Reluctant Admiral, and Between the Storms Mods travel the Alt-History path.
Not to be confused with the BabesLite or the DaBigBabes mods which I have mistakenly done in the past
quite unintentionally.

There are other games on the market that go right into the deep end.
Players interested in this genre can find them.

I think the best example of this is the Hearts of Iron 4 The New Order: Last days of Europe.
https://www.wargamer.com/hearts-of-iron ... -new-order

It has drawn some interest from the main stream press.
There was a Quillett.com article about it.
Quillett has serious articles.

I don’t play Hearts of Iron, but I do play the Ironman scenarios in this game.

[MarkShot]

There is theory and application.

In theory of nuclear reactions Germany had been very much at the forefront of the physics of the atom and electron. In fact, it was the fear and belief in the real possibility of a German atomic fission weapon that jump started the US program under Roosevelt's directive.

In terms of rocket science, Germany had both the theory and application to field the worlds first ballistic rocket (V2). And the leader of that program would be the NAZI to take the USA to moon. Producing a multi-stage rocket of the era with the greatest throw weight; important in delivery of heavy fission weapons.

All historic fact. Neither Roosevelt nor military planners considered this fantasy.

* If Trinity had happened in Europe would the allied powers had double their efforts to rollup Germany?

[RangerJoe]

Thank you for the diversion into fantasy land.

Yes, there could be a lot of historical stretching that could be done in the game and some if it is not all that far fetched either.

Could you imagine if the Uboats fled the North Atlantic en masse for the Indian Ocean and then the West Coast of the US along with the routes from there to the South Pacific? The numbers of escorts needed as well as the hunter-killer ASW groups needed could have strained the US shipbuilding capabilities. Especially if the Germans convinced the Japanese to use their tactics against the merchant convoys.

The same thing could have been done for merchant raiders as well. Think if the Graf Spee would have been supported by the Japanese after venturing into the Indian Ocean? Think if it would have ended up in Japan, interred until after the Pearl Harbour raid?

But all of that also supposes that the Allied leadership would not have done everything in their powers to stop a German atomic bomb threat. Not to mention German scientists working on a bomb without sabotaging the process.

[Trugrit]

There is theory and application.

In theory of nuclear reactions Germany had been very much at the forefront of the physics of the atom and electron. In fact, it was the fear and belief in the real possibility of a German atomic fission weapon that jump started the US program under Roosevelt's directive.

In terms of rocket science, Germany had both the theory and application to field the worlds first ballistic rocket (V2). And the leader of that program would be the NAZI to take the USA to moon. Producing a multi-stage rocket of the era with the greatest throw weight; important in delivery of heavy fission weapons.

All historic fact. Neither Roosevelt nor military planners considered this fantasy.

* If Trinity had happened in Europe would the allied powers had double their efforts to rollup Germany?

No, the German atom bomb during WW2 was a Fantasy.

https://www.atomicheritage.org/history/ ... mb-project
Read carefully.

“Significant work on the German project was halted in June of 1942.
The Germans never achieved a successful chain reaction, had no method of enriching uranium,
and never seriously considered plutonium as a viable substitute.”

The main problem was enriching the Uranium.
“As one German scientist exclaimed, it must have taken "factories large as the
United States to make that much uranium-235!"

As the article states….Hitler was more interested in a long-range ballistic missile.

Maybe the Germans could have done that but the reality is that there is no real point in making
a long range ballistic missile, even if it had a sophisticated guidance system, without having
a nuclear warhead to put on top of it. It would have just been another V2.

Even if Roosevelt was frightened out of his mind it would have not made any difference.

Consider what it took to make the atom bomb:
https://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2013/11 ... n-project/

Over 600,00 people worked on that project. Only the United States was capable of doing it in 1942
and not the U.S. alone; Canada worked on the project.

“Let’s just take a moment to marvel at this. They went from pretty much just talking about
a bomb, in theory, on paper, in late 1942, and had a project with 125,310 active employees
at its peak, 22 months later. That’s a huge ramp-up.”

Take a look at the sites:
https://www.atomicheritage.org/history/project-sites

Germany could not come close to this.

* If Trinity had happened in Europe would the allied powers had double their efforts to rollup Germany?

The Allies had already doubled their efforts to defeat Germany.
They were already making weapons, planes and ships as fast as they could, day and night.

If Germany had a nuclear weapon there was not a weapons platform in the Pacific that could get there
fast enough much less change the outcome even if they were able to get there.

So, lets agree to disagree and just stop.

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[RangerJoe]

As far as the German Program went:

"It seems that for the senior German scientists of the program led by Werner Heisenberg, five objectives were shared leading to the non-production of the bomb. 1: do not build the bomb; 2: avoid questions from the Gestapo about treason; 3: allow young physicists to avoid being sent to the front, which would have ended the program; 4: consequently, continue atomic research; 5: To avoid persecution by the German people after the war for not having made the bomb. Five goals achieved."

https://www.speclab.com/werner-heisenbe ... omic-bomb/

Also:

https://www.npr.org/2000/03/29/1072203/ ... the-a-bomb

https://www.atomicheritage.org/history/ ... mb-project

[Rising-Sun]

Interesting feedbacks, the reasons i asked this cause what IF? So i didnt know if even possible or be able to survive that long for the Japan point of views. Not trying to win it, trying to survive it long as possible. Of course the allies, esp USA will out production by 1944 and 1945, well that gotta be the hardest part before that A-bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

[Platoonist]

Of course the allies, esp USA will out production by 1944 and 1945, well that gotta be the hardest part before that A-bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

In the AI's lifeless hands, the US production advantage really counts for little. It presents its forces piecemeal and they get defeated piecemeal. Plus, a good deal of its numerical supremacy just gets wasted riding at anchor, or guarding locations far from the front or in some cases never even leaves the US. If you were to play out an already won game as Japan until 1945, you'd likely never seen an A-bomb attack as the Allied AI wouldn't have a base in range from which to drop one.

[RangerJoe]

Some players have taken games into 1946, often they are picked up by an Allied player after another Allied player quits.

[Mock726]

I have never played the campaign as the Japanese, or played as the allies past 1944 (and I have only played versus the AI, never against a human opponent)..
But I have let the machine play against itself, AI versus AI, stopping the game every few game months to see how the sides are doing. Letting the games run into 1946. The Japanese AI continues playing an effective defense all the way to the end. The Allied AI however seems to shut down by the beginning of 1945. After that time the Allied fleets appears to retire to San Francisco and Aden. In one game there were more than 1000 US Navy vessels hiding in San Francisco, including all CV,CVL,CA, CL and several hundred DD types. Now it's possible this is an artifact that only happens in AI versus AI games but I suspect the difficulty of creating an AI that could handle the US fleet in 1945 against an experienced Japanese player led the designers to opt out of building a late war Allied script package.

So it appears that if the Japanese player can hold off the Allied AI well into 1944 they can win the war.

I would be interested in hearing from any Japanese player that has faced effective Allied AI attacks in 1945 in the campaign game.

[LargeSlowTarget]

In WITP-AE the Babes mods travel the Alt-History path.

What do you mean?

The Babes mods aim to increase realism and add only units missing in stock scenarios that actually did see service in the real war, but AFAIK they don't add any Alt-Hist elements.

[Rising-Sun]

I have never played the campaign as the Japanese, or played as the allies past 1944 (and I have only played versus the AI, never against a human opponent)..
But I have let the machine play against itself, AI versus AI, stopping the game every few game months to see how the sides are doing. Letting the games run into 1946. The Japanese AI continues playing an effective defense all the way to the end. The Allied AI however seems to shut down by the beginning of 1945. After that time the Allied fleets appears to retire to San Francisco and Aden. In one game there were more than 1000 US Navy vessels hiding in San Francisco, including all CV,CVL,CA, CL and several hundred DD types. Now it's possible this is an artifact that only happens in AI versus AI games but I suspect the difficulty of creating an AI that could handle the US fleet in 1945 against an experienced Japanese player led the designers to opt out of building a late war Allied script package.

So it appears that if the Japanese player can hold off the Allied AI well into 1944 they can win the war.

I would be interested in hearing from any Japanese player that has faced effective Allied AI attacks in 1945 in the campaign game.

Wow that is terrible, not like how the Americans would do.

[Trugrit]

In WITP-AE the Babes mods travel the Alt-History path.

What do you mean?

The Babes mods aim to increase realism and add only units missing in stock scenarios that actually did see service in the real war, but AFAIK they don't add any Alt-Hist elements.

Treaty, Reluctant Admiral, and Between the Storms Mods

https://sites.google.com/site/reluctant ... ms-scen-55

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[LargeSlowTarget]

Yes Treaty, RA and BTS are alt-hist mods, but they are not "Babes" mods. BabesLite and DaBigBabes have no alt-hist elements.

[Trugrit]

Yes Treaty, RA and BTS are alt-hist mods, but they are not "Babes" mods. BabesLite and DaBigBabes have no alt-hist elements.

You are right and I'm sorry. I'll correct my post.

[Yaab]

Can Japan win the grind campaign?
And the answer is no.