What were they thinking?

[Sultanofsham]

ORIGINAL: brisd

His life had been threatened by Army hotheads and other ultranationalists to the point that his appointment to command the Combined Fleet saved his life from assassins!

Durring the 30's I think the ultra clowns killed or wounded a few officers who didnt hold the same views as them.

[Platoonist]

Taken from Edwin P. Hoyt's book Japan's War Kinda gives an idea of the disconnect from reality that was infecting Japan at the time.

For two years Admiral Yonai and his assistant, Admiral Yamamoto, had been fighting a running battle against army excesses and against turning the navy into a jingoist organization. They had warned so many times that Japan would ultimately lose a war against the United States that their warnings were no longer heard. When General Abe took over the government Admiral Yonai's service as navy minister ended. Personally, Yonai was relieved because in recent months he and Yamamoto had been recieving an increasing number of death threats, obviously from young naval officers and other supernationalist.
Here is an indication of the tenor, a note sent to Yamamoto:

The next war will be a holy war....between Japan and England....You, as a leader of the pro-British forces, and in league with Navy Minister Yonai, constantly obstruct the carrying through of policies based on the national polity headed by the emperor, and are putting the glorious imperial navy in danger of becoming a private force of the senior statesmen and big business.

These threats increased weekly. As Yonai went out of office, he urged Yamamoto to go to sea as commander of the Combined Fleet. Only thus could he be assured of safety from assassination.

And this was a man who would be revered as a national hero once the war started. If an entire nation chooses to be deluded there is not much one man can do.

[usecase]

I've seen people (I'm not one of them) that claim the USA effectively declared war on Japan the minute the legislature signed up for the Naval Expansion Act in 1940.

The Japanese went to war at the 'least worst' time - a lot of their fleet was approaching obsolescence.

Cheers,

John.

[steveh11Matrix]

There's another point: It's my understanding that Yamamoto was insistent on a proper declaration of war before the first raid at PH. Shock and Awe without the 'stab-in-the-back' reaction.

Also, I don't believe the idea of victory was that far-fetched. A mere 40 years later the USA was defeated by a much smaller Asian nation. It's not just about production quantities, it's much more about reducing the other fella's will to fight.

(Edit spelling...)
Steve.

[Culiacan Mexico]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
And I am saying he was full of it. Let's say he did sink 5 old BB's and got REALLY lucky and sunk 2 carriers. He would indeed mop up in the South Pacific and the PI would fall and Singapore etc etc...but then what? The idea that after suffering so much pain, an American President or Congress or even the citizenry would put up with a humiliating peace treaty is hogwash. Once he was in the fight...I dont blame him for being aggressive at Midway, but the idea that the US was going to slink away is where the "military genius" part loses some credibility.

Vietnam. The US was looking for away out for a very long time.

WW1 showed that amphibious operations against prepared positions was costly if not impossible, thus the US Marine placed heavy emphases on finding a solution. It was not known at the time (1940/41) how much tactics and technology could overcome this difficulty.

A million men can not take Tarawa in 100 years.
Rear Adm. Keiji Shibasaki

It took about four thousand men in three days.

Now obviously there was some bravado in the commanders words, but it does reflect the belief that fortified islands would be very costly to take and sap the American will to accept continued sacrifice.

[captskillet]

A mere 40 years later the USA was defeated by a much smaller Asian nation.

Who did we fight in the 1980's??? [&:]

[steveh11Matrix]

Oops. My bad - make that "a mere 30 years later".

In the 80's you won the Cold War, btw.

Steve.

[Captain Cruft]

You have to remember that, up to 1868, Japan was basically a medieval feudal society. Extremely insular, with few people having any understanding of outside countries (Yamamato being an exception). No mass media back then. There may have been some comprehension of the British Empire (similarity of being an island nation etc.), indeed you might say that the Japanese Empire was attempting to emulate it. Notice the reference to "holy war with England" in one of the posts above ...

The idea that the "lazy" and largely non-Imperial Americans might actually change their behaviour when attacked probably didn't even occur to most of the top brass.

[hithere]

also....alot of the pre-war stuff (airplanes and ships) had alot of british influence.

[brisd]

ORIGINAL: usecase

I've seen people (I'm not one of them) that claim the USA effectively declared war on Japan the minute the legislature signed up for the Naval Expansion Act in 1940.

The Japanese went to war at the 'least worst' time - a lot of their fleet was approaching obsolescence.

Cheers,

John.

Actually, I believe (from reading history) the justification for the Naval Expansion Act or Two Ocean Navy Act, was Germany's conquest of most of Western Europe in spring of 40 and the possibility of England becoming a conquest and her fleet falling into German hands. Japan figured into the equation too but Germany was rightly seen as the bigger threat. Most American military rightly felt it was suicide for Japan to attack but much of that was also based underestimation of their armed forces, esp. aircraft and pilots.

[highblooded]

I feel the keys to Japan's thought processes at the time rest on their beliefs that America and Great Britian were politically weak and couldn't face large military losses. If high casualty rates could have been sustained with little to show for them, it was felt the allies would negotiate favorable terms.

A Great Many If's could have changed the war.

If the 'Barrier' had been setup as planned nells and betties would have made a formidable obstacle to the allies. The allies taking Guadalcanal was another turning point, if KB had been around it never could have been attempted without extreme loss. Delaying allied forces any offensives until 44 (due to the need to gather sufficient airpower) could lead to general disatisfaction of the home front.

If The Carriers had been sunk or damaged heavily at PH, KB could have done as it pleased, all of the Coral Sea would have been taken with slight losses, probably up to Noumea. The Tokyo raid is no longer possible. Any US CV raids would have risked the precious few leftover carriers, loss of these cv's delay offensives to '44. Also landings could have been made along the Indian Coast possibly pushing the british back to all the way to Iraq. Without A German-Soviet war in 1941 The Germans could have taken Malta, Syria, and most likely egypt. Giving the Axis powers the Middle East oil.

If Midway had been taken in the initial onslaught it would have created a formidable patrol and long range bomber base. Naturally KB would be spared its disaster.

If Japanese Codes had been better or changed more often, Midway could not have happened.

If the SRA invasions had been executed at a quicker pace many units could have been released for a burma or solomons campaign.

If forces had not been removed from the PI Bataan could have fallen much sooner releasing additional forces.

If the soviets had been attacked by japan in early '42 and the germans had not been diverted from moscow, ( or diverted in greece) it is likely Stalin would have gone under in mid to late '42.

If the Japanese-Soviet clashes had been learned from instead of ignored, many failings of Japanese Army units and Airpower could have been rectified much sooner(heavier firepower and armor for aircraft, better anti-tank guns, better tanks, better artillery, better C & C, etc.) The same is true to a lesser degree with the Chinese War.

If PH had occured a few hours after DOW, that would have helped a bit as well, focusing any blame on the US government, not on 'those sneaky @#$%@'s.

If the navy and army had cooperated 'for the good of the empire' a million positive changes could have been made.

If the Yamato Program had been scrapped, all of Japan could have been brought into the 20th century.

Naturally A million more 'what if's' exist. In all of these the allies do not automatcally win. The best economy in the world doesn't guarantee victory. Look at the Revolutionary War for example.

Japan's main obstacles to a possible victory are arrogance, stubborness, and a lack of realistic views on her capabilities.

[SunDevil_MatrixForum]

There is a book that all WWII interested people should read

Its called "A World at Arms - Global History of World War II" by Gerhard L. Weinberg

It is a huge book, over 900 pages, but it covers the whole world, before, during, and after WWII and all theaters. It talks a lot about the politics and how a lot of stuff was decided/happened. I learned a lot by reading this book.

If you ever wanted to know why things happened, and what some of these countries and their leadership were thinking and their relationships with each other (Axis and Allies), then this book is for you.

This is just my opinion, but if anyone is interested in this type of stuff, and is able to handle reading a book that is a total of 1100 pages (over 900 actual text, the rest are maps, footnotes, and the index) then I would recommend this book.

[maddog0606]

From what I have read this is my understanding of why Japan went to war and thought they could get a quick peace:

Japan wanted China. It thought it had a right to getting part of China because the European colonial powers all had a piece of China. The US did not really get pissed off till the Japanese started to kill lots and lots of Chinese civilians. The US liked Japan and Japan liked the US. Heck, the US did not even get that pissed when the Japanese bombed some of our gunboats in China.

The US froze the Japanese assets in the US. The US stopped selling scrap metal and oil to Japan. Japan needed these to continue its war in China. Japan calculated when it would run out of these resources and started to plan a war to get these resources. It saw the US has weak due to the political leaders at the time and did not think that we would have the stomach for a long and bloody war. A lot of US politicians did not really care about the Philippines and more then likly would not have gone to war to protect em. The US certainly would not have gone to war to help the Dutch or British to get back their colonial posessions.

The Japanese made the mistake of hitting PH (considered American territory even though not a State). And they hit PH before officially declaring war (they did this same thing when they had the war with Russia in 1904-05). This pissed off the American government and thus the American people. Pissed off the American public enough in that they wanted to go after Japan first even before going after Germany. But the US government saw Germany has a bigger threat and only did a Stratigic Defense in the Pacific till 1944.

The Japanese other big boo boo was what is called Victory Desiese. They were wining so big that they started to grap things that they could not protect. They over extended.

[MadmanRick]

Let us not forget that after Yamamoto, the quality of Japanese naval officers fell off rapidly. Most were more concerned about not losing face, than they were about doing whatever it took to win. However, in the culture of Japan (or even Germany) at the time, losing face or favor was tantamount to death. Let us also not forget that Japan was not in this alone, they were also relying on the other Axis powers to put unbearable pressure upon the Allies. If Germany had been a bit "smarter" and less ego-driven, perhaps that pressure would have, along with the early Japanese victories forced the Allies to sue for peace. However, once Germany attacked Russia the handwriting was on the wall. If Britain HAD fallen and Japan had gone on its' 6-12 months rampage unabated, the U.S. may not have had any other choice than to sue for peace. Fortunately we shall never know!

Rick

[SunDevil_MatrixForum]

maddog0606,

Great post, great way to explain it.

[hithere]

well...i would have read it but i'm going to be playing WITP for the next 3 years!!! [:D]

highblooded, I respect you opinion but I think I disagree on almost every point. I'm not going to get a point by point debate because as Homer Simpson says "you can use fact to prove anything even remotely true" . What I will say is that most things happen for a reason and just don't "happen to happen" sure the one scout plane being late at midway is a good what if….but war is very un predictable. Sure any of those what if scenario's would have been bad for the allies, but to say that would have caused the allies to lost the war is a big step. It assumes that they would have acted historically and not reacted to the situation. For instance, if the US would have lost the battle of Midway and it was lost, the U.S. (I believe) would have shifted more of her tremendous industry power to build more carriers. Even winning, didn't the U.S. have 3 or 4 new carriers by the beginning of 43?
also I have to say that I disagree that economies don't win wars. The ability to produce has been important in every war. The colonies economy in the rev war was nothing to sneeze at. That war had a lot to do with taking 3 months to move back and forth…that that is another topic.

Anyway, that is my opinion. Someone may disagree with it but please respect it

[moses]

Another point. The strength of the US ecconomic/military expansion was not clear at the time. We were after all emerging from a great depression and while many were aware of the US potential, the eventual US production figures would probably have been regarded as absurd even by Yamamoto. It took about a year and a half to really get US weapons production into full gear in late 43/44. This really is an amazing short period of time. An expansion this complex could easily have been botched causing delays of a year or more. Anything can happen- A design flaw in a major weapon, a production bottleneck, an unexpected interoperability problem, or just plain incompetance at some level can delay things for years. If US production failed to ramp up until a year later you have a whole new war.

Plus you have to expect that the Japanese expected a little more from their economy.

[hithere]

that is a good point but the U.S. had alot of "slack" in our production from the depression...as for the weapons....it is really amazing how good most of the aircraft and such were thrown together and how well they worked...it really says something about the designers and such then...

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: steveh11Matrix

There's another point: It's my understanding that Yamamoto was insistent on a proper declaration of war before the first raid at PH. Shock and Awe without the 'stab-in-the-back' reaction.

Also, I don't believe the idea of victory was that far-fetched. A mere 40 years later the USA was defeated by a much smaller Asian nation. It's not just about production quantities, it's much more about reducing the other fella's will to fight.

(Edit spelling...)
Steve.

Vietnam is not analogous. There was never a shocking aggression against American soil (Gulf of Tonkin was puffed up hype). There was no overarching Vietnamese goal of Imperialism. There were TENS of THOUSANDS of American POW's in the Pacific who were treated even worse than American POW's in Vietnam. The idea of an American adbication in the Pacific in the Pacific is simply not plausible.

[moses]

Yes it was amazing how well they did. Even today with computers, advanced management techniques and production/development programs that drag on for a decade we still produce the occasional dog. Imagine if our figher aircraft development program was as successful as our pre-war submarine torpedo program!!

The success of our economy was nothing short of a miracle. While most of the ingredients of that success were know pre-war, it could not be predicted to what extent those ingredients would come togrther.