Russia First strategy for Japan

[Hirohito]

ORIGINAL: moses

I'm guessing that you need 2 and probably 3 divisions in Malaya and a third to a half of china command to hold off a counteroffensive in these areas. The question then is how long can russia hold against the remaining force.

Given 4 months I think the allies might take all of Malaysia against three division equivalents. Once Russia is triggered the allies should send everything possible to Malaysia. Chinese forces should mass at a few locations and engage in attrition battles against the JP, building experience, depleting the JP forces and burning JP supply.

By sending independent units to the chinese coastal cities and moving the divisions freed up there to china proper a strategy like you would follow would be very costly. When the Kwantang army and the 12 divisions freed up by not attacking PI, DEI and Malaya arrive in a few months those "mass" forces will be surrounded and starved out. This is the plan that I am hoping the chinese adopt.

I'm not sure why I have to defend Malaya. Do you mean the Thailand bases on the Malay peninsula? So, you are going to mass your forces against the two Thai bases in the Malay peninsula? Wouldn't you be worried about an amphibious landing in your rear? You don't really know how many troops I sent to Russia. Perhaps I held a few divisions back for just such an exigency.

If the japanese player moves his forces into position to isolate elements of the russian army and cut them off from supplies the russian player cannot hold for long. The base at the northern end of Sakhelin island can be taken easily, and important oil production is picked up, the base in easternmost siberia can also be taken easily, there are a few resource points there. Vladisvostok cannot hold and the Japanease player can cut off the forces along the border south and west of vladisvostok.

I've used this strategy against other players. The most important thing is to preposition your forces in Manchuko and northeast korea so that when you hit russia you slice their army up into isolated pockets. cut off their supply line and fight battles of encirclement after you bring up superior forces.

Hirohito

[Hirohito]

ORIGINAL: 2ndACR

Your plan has its merits, but against a human I do not think it is doable. There is no way a human is going to sit still and allow you move very many Chinese divisions with out going on the offensive.

I know what I would if faced with your strategy. B17's would be bombing Japan proper from day 1. The Marianas would be mine. The PI would be dang near impossible for you to take away from me after you use those divisions.

I would sweep down from Burma and batter any weak garrisons you left behind and take Indo China away from you.

Again, against a human, I do not see this as workable.

Since I abandoned the central pacific, yes the marianas are yours. What do you think the Japanese air force would be doing while you are sending B17s unescorted over Japan? How many B17s do you have so early in the war anyway? Would they really matter? What bases would they fly from? How would you make PI impregnable? With what forces? How would you get them to PI given that the entire IJN is a raiding force bent on preventing you from moving forces into PI? How would you get your transports past the land based bombers stationed in formosa in order to reinforce PI?

Hirohito

[Xargun]

ORIGINAL: Hirohito

Hi Everyone,
I'm out of town and don't have access to my WITP game. Would someone add up the resources that are captured by the Japanese player if the Russia first strategy goes well, assuming that the japanese player captures all the Russian bases on the map? give us the totals for:
Resources
Heavy Industry
Oil Production
Manpower
Armaments
Vehicles
Aircraft Production
Engine Production
Naval Production
Merchant Marine Production

This way we can discuss the merits of taking out Russia first from the actual numbers instead of from guessing. I ran these numbers before but I don't have access to the spreadsheet and I can't remember what they were.

Thanks,
Hirohito

I agree with Hirohito.. The Russia first strategy can work - even against an human player. In my opinion Russia does not have enough troops to stop japan from defeating them.. and they have no reinforcements of any combat value - all base forces and HQs. I have totalled the gains so you can all look at it and judge for yourselves..

Irkutsk - 3000 Supplies / Day 50 Fuel / Day * Only free supply Russia has
Khomsomalsk - 1 Manpower, 720 HI, 300 Resources
Khabarovsk - 1 Manpower, 300 HI, 300 Resources
Vladivostock - 1 Manpower, 240 HI, 300 Resources
Okha - 1 Manpower, 300 Resources, 400 Oil * The grandaddy base
Petropavlovsk - 50 Resources

In total a fully conquered Russia will give Japan 1250 Resources and 2400 oil (400 x 6) per day. 1260 HI [which will convert to approx 630 upon capture] and 4 manpower. And its all in Japan's backdoor - which will be costly for the allies to attempt to interdict it with subs. That oil is enough to run a sixth of your total industry in japan by itself - thus very important...

On the ground Japan's Manchuria garrison has more firepower than the russians by quite a bit - especially once you consider a lot of russian's firepower is tied up in static units that can be easily bypassed once you take one out... destroyed one of the forts and you can ignore the rest...

Static Unit Assault Points: 1115 [Russia has 11 static CD units strung out along the border in forts]
Mobile Unit Assault Points: 5991
Total Russian Assault Points: 7106

Total Japanese Assault Points: 8869 [Manchuria Garrison only]

As you can see the numbers are in japan's favor. Bring a couple more divisions in from china and japan can definately defeat russia and steal all the important bases. I estimate it can be captured in 1-2 months ONCE combat starts and as japan positions himself for the invasion there is nothing you can do - you cannot alter anything about the russians until war is started and by then it is too late. If you look at Russian's setup, the majority of their power is confined to 5 bases and 1 non-base hex. Heck, their only port (Vladivostock) only has 24 APs worth of troops in it.

You can bring up the air issue, but despite russia having superior numbers in the air versus japan, they are not equal.. Even the Nate can beat up on russian fighters and 90% of all russia aircraft have only a 2 hex range - making them about useless except for base protection. And we all know you can't stop an attack with air power alone - at least not the air power available to either side before 43...

If you have any more questions about this idea let me know I am trying to get the russian situation altered in favor of the russians... At least so that russia gets more reinforcements in the future (combat units) and have an attempt to retake their land...

Xargun

[Kereguelen]

Hi Hirohito,

while your plan surely has some merits, there'll be some more factors that should be taken into account before attacking Russia:

1) The Russian Army is no pushover (even China isn't). But that is not the whole point: You'll not only need more LCU's than Russia but you'll have to gain air superiority over Siberia. The 1941 Russian planes are not the best, but they'll fight from some rather good AFs. Thus the Japanese airforce will most probably take some losses. There are not enough good pilots in the pool to replace losses taken from both the occupation of the SRA and Russia (if you only loose 100 pilots: how to replace them?).

2) How to supply an attacking army from Manchukuo? The supplies needed for an attack must come from somewhere. Or, if there is enough supply in Manchukuo, the supplies will have to remain there and will be missed elsewhere.

[Xargun]

ORIGINAL: Kereguelen

Hi Hirohito,

while your plan surely has some merits, there'll be some more factors that should be taken into account before attacking Russia:

1) The Russian Army is no pushover (even China isn't). But that is not the whole point: You'll not only need more LCU's than Russia but you'll have to gain air superiority over Siberia. The 1941 Russian planes are not the best, but they'll fight from some rather good AFs. Thus the Japanese airforce will most probably take some losses. There are not enough good pilots in the pool to replace losses taken from both the occupation of the SRA and Russia (if you only loose 100 pilots: how to replace them?).

The russian air force has very little range - there is almost no need to engage them and risk your pilots.

ORIGINAL: Kereguelen
2) How to supply an attacking army from Manchukuo? The supplies needed for an attack must come from somewhere. Or, if there is enough supply in Manchukuo, the supplies will have to remain there and will be missed elsewhere.

If you hold off attacking china - just deploy in a defensive position, you can attack russia instead. You have / produce enough supply in asia to support 1 theater of attack - china or russia either one... with the rails the supply will move nicely where you need it.. AND most of russia's bases are on rail lines, making it easy to supply once you start taking bases.

Xargun

[moses]

Don't take it so personally. If you want to discuss it, I'm discussing it. I havn't dismissed the idea, I'm just looking at the downside.

The only way to refute your proposed strategy is to do somthing while you are occupied in Russia. You have to admit that once you trigger the Russians you are commited. If russia is still fighting 6 months later you've probably lost. I want to reduce the number of divisions you can send there or do damage against other areas while you deal with russia.


In Malaya I do have to worry you having divisions in reserve but then thats another division or two you dont have to quickly take out russia. My point is that you have to leave a significant force there or I will take Siagon and Cameron Bay. This will not be decisive but it will hurt. If you leave a little more force in Malaya then I will still engage your forces on an even basis and cause casualties and force you to expend supply.

In China I have no illusions of driving you out. But if you take half your force out I can fight for 3 or 4 months on an equal basis. A one to one kill rate would be fantastic. You have to expend supply and I gain experience. As the russians start to give out I move back into a more defensive posture and await your offensive.

[Kereguelen]

Planes:

Guess that you'll have to engage them when you attack their base with LCU's. Otherwise the Sturmovik will make you pay dearly (just a guess, as I never tried, but seems at least reasonable).

Supplies:

Maybe, but what happens when China chooses to attack you while you're busy elsewhere. Of course you could take back the lost terrain later, but you'll still need enough supplied troops in China to hold your most important positions.

[Xargun]

ORIGINAL: Kereguelen

Supplies:

Maybe, but what happens when China chooses to attack you while you're busy elsewhere. Of course you could take back the lost terrain later, but you'll still need enough supplied troops in China to hold your most important positions.

You seriously think china can push out japan ? The numbers I gave did not include any forces diverted from China - I seriously doubt china has the strength - or supplies - to push japan out of anywhere unless the japanese player seriously weakens japan's strength which I do not advocate - although 1 or 2 divisions missing from china won't make much difference... But moving 6 or so out would...

Xargun

[2ndACR]

ORIGINAL: Hirohito

ORIGINAL: 2ndACR

Your plan has its merits, but against a human I do not think it is doable. There is no way a human is going to sit still and allow you move very many Chinese divisions with out going on the offensive.

I know what I would if faced with your strategy. B17's would be bombing Japan proper from day 1. The Marianas would be mine. The PI would be dang near impossible for you to take away from me after you use those divisions.

I would sweep down from Burma and batter any weak garrisons you left behind and take Indo China away from you.

Again, against a human, I do not see this as workable.

Since I abandoned the central pacific, yes the marianas are yours. What do you think the Japanese air force would be doing while you are sending B17s unescorted over Japan? How many B17s do you have so early in the war anyway? Would they really matter? What bases would they fly from? How would you make PI impregnable? With what forces? How would you get them to PI given that the entire IJN is a raiding force bent on preventing you from moving forces into PI? How would you get your transports past the land based bombers stationed in formosa in order to reinforce PI?

Hirohito

The B17's would be flying out of PI and Russian bases as soon as you activate them. The PI would be fortified to size 9 every where, plus the units there would have time to gain strength. The IJN can have trouble against land based air power. Attrition does not work in your favor. Besides the supply crunch you will feel within 4 months will kill you. I know, I am already starting to feel the pinch on supply levels by delaying the invasion of Palembang and Java until May 42. It is now June 42 and Java is giving me fits. You just can not give the Allied player any time in these areas to prepare for you.

I play exclusively as the Japanese, so I have an idea of what is going to happen. I believe me and Ron are farther along than anyone else in a PBEM game so I have a pretty good idea of what is going to bite you in the butt.

The resources, HI, Oil you take in Russia are only good if you take them intact or with light damage. If they are heavily damaged, the hurt will just arrive sooner.

[Kereguelen]

Hi,

I was not talking about pushing Japan out from China. China will not be able to do that. But China may attack and Japan will take losses and spend supplies in defending its positions. And maybe the Chinese will take one or two cities from Japan. But that will maily depend on the actions of both players (China will need some "luck" or better planning, I guess). But it's at least possible.

[2ndACR]

Also to add, I play Lemurs scenario only and it is by far more Japanese friendly scenario.

If I had the time, I would offer to let you give this a whirl with me. But since I do not know when I will leave it is moot.

[Hirohito]

ORIGINAL: Kereguelen

Planes:

Guess that you'll have to engage them when you attack their base with LCU's. Otherwise the Sturmovik will make you pay dearly (just a guess, as I never tried, but seems at least reasonable).

Supplies:

Maybe, but what happens when China chooses to attack you while you're busy elsewhere. Of course you could take back the lost terrain later, but you'll still need enough supplied troops in China to hold your most important positions.

The Russian fighters cannot inflict any significant damage on the Japanese fighters. Move some zeros up to Manchuko and the russian fighters are toast. What I would do is move large numbers of fighters and bombers to manchuko and knock the russian air force out right away. I would use political points to shift air units attached to the japanese home defense to the kwantang army.

In regards to the chinese army launching an offensive. You are leaving out part of the china strategy. The divisions that are garrisoning the coastal chinese towns are moved to china proper or manchuko because forces are moved to the coastal towns to take over garrison duty. There should be no lost territory to recapture. Remember, the allied player won't know that your china forces have been shifted to Manchuko until they appear in Russia. By the time the chinese army is in full scale attack mode on selected targets the kwantang army,the divisions that were moved out of china and the 12 divisions shifted from the delayed invasion of the pacific islands,malaya and singapore will be arriving in china. A large part of the chinese forces are far away and have to move slowly over dirt tracks or over mountainous terrain.


Of course if you screw up the Russian campaign and don't take the Russians out in a month or so after you launch the invasion you are toast. But, given how the russian forces are dispersed and how easy it is to isolate them and cut them off from supplies, you would have to be a total bumbler to make this mistake. If you use this tactic: cut off the enemy from supplies, bring up superior forces, fight a battle of encirclement, then you can make short work of the Russians. If you don't do this, you will get embarrassed.

Hirohito

[kaiser73]

To Xargun:

Russia has 7k Assault points, i think for a fast victory (2 months) you need at least 12k Assault points.

I mean, here we are talking about annhilating 7000 Assault Points. no way you can do that with 10k.

About Starving the russians as Hirohito says, startving takes time. a Unit takes a month to finish the supply ONCE the base has run out. Given the supplies Russians have, to starve them it will take 2-3 months.

Prolly you can take amboina and kendari and borneo and mindanao. Surely not Java, sumatra.

IJN can cut off Philippines. But Phi have their own resources. it will take time to starve them, lot of.

I repeat, i can't see Japan winning Russia in 2 months. Many forget the logistic. it will be like 3-4months. and once you have won there you will lose a month to rest your troops and move back in china.
Then you will still need months to kill the chinese. and it will take lot of time to beat china. Hell, it takes 2 weeks just to move units from Sians to Chunking... 3 months is the minimum to win in China and annhilating chinese.

so russia (3,5) + 1 for redeply and rest + (3,5) china is 8 months at best. SO you are in september '42. going to india as you suggest will take lot of time. Takes 1 month just to move units from china to burma and to move by sea some divs to india.

Again, i think you don't have enough time to win in india.

[BlackVoid]

Attacking Russia would make sense if Germany would also be on play. Japanese attack Russia in 41 would have been a rude surprise for Stalin and could have meant the loss of Moscow in the West.

In the game it does not make sense ot attack Russia. In real life, it would make the USA weaker in the PT.

[DrewMatrix]

Japanese attack Russia in 41 would have been a rude surprise for Stalin and could have meant the loss of Moscow in the West.

Rude surprise, yes. Why would that have led to the fall of Moscow? I seriously doubt Stalin would have rushed troops away from Moscow in late '41 to reinforce Vladivostok.

In the game, and in Real Life, the main result of a Japanese attack on Russia would be sending a bunch of troops the Japanese could use elsewhere into a sideshow that could not possibly help them in the long term.

[2ndACR]

ORIGINAL: Beezle

Japanese attack Russia in 41 would have been a rude surprise for Stalin and could have meant the loss of Moscow in the West.

Rude surprise, yes. Why would that have led to the fall of Moscow? I seriously doubt Stalin would have rushed troops away from Moscow in late '41 to reinforce Vladivostok.

In the game, and in Real Life, the main result of a Japanese attack on Russia would be sending a bunch of troops the Japanese could use elsewhere into a sideshow that could not possibly help them in the long term.

No Stalin would not have sent forces to Vladivostok, but neither would those forces he DID send towards Moscow be able to be used. The winter offensive used alot of forces from the Far East command because the units in the West had been chewed up so bad.

[moses]

It really all depends on how fast you can subdue russia. If you can get it done by end of Feb 42 its probably a good deal. If your still fighting there in May you've lost the game.

It would be fun to read the AAR.

[sveint]

Hirohito;

Glad to see you are back, and your tone is much more humble this time. Very nice discussions here.

Your plan is not viable. You NEED to take DEI while you can and pulling forces out of the Southern Army to attack Russia is a recipe for disaster; much like your previous proposed plan. However it does score points for originality.

For a variant that I think will work (and I think would work in reality), see:

http://www.svein.org/senkou/index.shtml ALL MY PBEM OPPONENTS NOT ALLOWED TO VIEW [X(]

Historically speaking: Japan should have made an all out effort in China - and then turned on Russia in spring 1942 after Russia had transferred forces west.

[kaiser73]

Just to add, i think that if you do this plan, it would be fair to give 10 days to russia to deploy his troops before attacking.

I mean, Allied player has no chance to redeploy his troops while Japan player can make his plan to exploit russian's starting deployement.

[Cav Trooper]

Not a bad plan, to a degree. However, I do have some reservations about it working exactly as you think it would go:

1. Supply in the short term probably will not hurt to bad at first. However, once you start to move inland on China, you have to remember, you are moving further away from your supply nodes, where as the Chinese are falling back upon theirs, and India's. So, one glitch in supply, you've got problems.

2. PI's are up and running for the Allies, and India / Burma has some long range AC from decent bases. As allied, since I no longer have to interdict convoy's running from SRA and the Central Pacific back to Japan, I use all available subs to start interdicting your ports (except inland Sea of Japan) and any outgoing supply convoys from the Home Islands and vice versa. As you're chasing down my subs, I'm burning up your fuel reserves at an alarming rate, solidifying my SW pacific bastions and gearing up for a reposite sometime in late 42 to early 43. My A/C are bombing your Mainland china ports, SEA ports and again attriting valuable supplies and fuel stocks.

3. With no concerted effort to work over the SRA, except for a few spots, I'm able to begin to extracate the resources / oil / fuel back to OZ and the long route to India to help bolster the supply issues there. US is sending a couple of additional TF's to OZ and other Central / South Pacific key supply nodes for follow on actions. Meanwhile, I'm mining and setting up interdiction assets for your run around Malaya to get to India / Burma, which is a heavly predicated operation for your success in the CBI.

4. I really don't see Russia paying that much of a concern to losing Siberia at this point. Japan is not a threat to European Russia at this point in time, and Stalin would not release additional troops to the Far East. Yes, I do believe that Russia's loss of Far Eastern troops would hurt them initially, however, seeing as the Germans' were not prepared for any other operation lasting longer than 6 months, factor in the weather (lousy winter which they were ill prepared for) and I believe that the only difference on the Eastern Front would have been a delay in getting off the Soviets' offensives by about 6 to 9 months at most against mostly stabalized lines. The only thing I see the Soviets really getting up tight about is the Trans Siberian lend lease shipments they were getting from the US in terms of Aircraft transfers (if memory serves me proper), only these would have been cut out and would have been shipped via the North Sea supply lines.

Overall, not a bad strategy, however once again, total success on Japan's part would be contengient on intial overwhelming and near perfect execution. Short term goals achievable, however, once again long term goals are seriously lacking. There is no buffer zone to collapse upon as the Allies are gearing up for offensive action. Navy will be stronger due to not losing ships / merchant assets early on. Air Force able to have an impact upon operations earlier than historical and/or planned. This would heavily rely upon no American involvement what so ever for the first 9 months to a year (assuming PH never occurs). Once again, I do not see the US standing patiently by doing nothing.

Not a bad plan, if (<-- note) if, there is an additional plan to be executed in the wings to conduct southern,eastern and central pacific operations to counter US / British counter moves. Enjoyed the thinking you have provoked. And if anyone see's flaws in my observations, please correct them as it will aid me in understaning the Pacific theater better...