Filling out IJ Base Forces

[jhdeerslayer]

Ditto for me too Oznoyng. Besides it is bad (and good [:)] ) enough trying to micromanage pilots and all without making this overly burdensome but that is my style.

[tsimmonds]

Well I just burned 2k in one day ( never happened before - but of course it does now that we're talking about it !!! still May 43 in the game in question ) ... so I'm down to 15k in the pool ... so guess it is time to beef up production .. but if you're saying I.D. burned 60K per day over 2 day period ( 120k total ) - then I'll be in trouble if I wanna fill out my infantry divisions. Fortunately, I would prefer to spend the PP for them first, move them and THEN start beefing them up ( less PP and less transport ) ... so I should be able to control the 60K per day hits even if they do come ....

If you have enough armament and manpower points in the bank, an LCU will arrive at full TOE strength. If you do not have enough points, it will fill out what it can. If you don't have any armament points, it will arrive at 25% TOE strength (which is apparently "free"), and you will have to fill it out -- or not! -- by burning armaments, manpower and supply after it's on the map. I believe this "pay later" option will also result in lowered experience.

[jwilkerson]

Well I recently got a division ( 61st I think ) in Tokyo - and it was "overstrength" !? And that was a few days before I dropped the 2k ... but I"ll keep an eye on things ... quite a few ground units will be arriving over the next few weeks ...

[pompack]

ORIGINAL: jwilkerson

ORIGINAL: irrelevant

In a recent PBEM I had something like 120,000 armaments points in the pool at one time; a large batch of reinforcements arrived and burned them all in a couple of days. A typical infantry division needs maybe 20-25,000 points to fill out fully....

Well I just burned 2k in one day ( never happened before - but of course it does now that we're talking about it !!! still May 43 in the game in question ) ... so I'm down to 15k in the pool ... so guess it is time to beef up production .. but if you're saying I.D. burned 60K per day over 2 day period ( 120k total ) - then I'll be in trouble if I wanna fill out my infantry divisions. Fortunately, I would prefer to spend the PP for them first, move them and THEN start beefing them up ( less PP and less transport ) ... so I should be able to control the 60K per day hits even if they do come ....

Some Numbers and a bunch of assumptions:

1. an "average" inf div requires about 23,400 load points, a brigade 15,500, etc for each type of unit
2. There are 93,000 load points of "unfilled requirements" not counting Manchuria at start (very soft number)
3. The Japanese start with 20,000 armament points in the pool and 501 factory points

Then if we look at the reinforcements per month and assume that all have to be filled out with new production, the Japanese will require

538,000 points between 7dec41 and 1jun42 (7 ID, 6 rgt, 14 garrison, 12 SNLF, 1 CD, 2 HQ, 54 IJX base units, 2 base units, 9 special base units and 3 engineer units)

181,000 points between 1jun42 and 1dec42

156,000 between 1dec42 and 1jun43

293,000 in June 1943

Now if we assume that there are NO losses between 7dec41 and 1jun42, then the total requirements for this period becomes 631,000 points or about 105,000 per month.

The first point is that while the "crunch week" is bad (over 240,000 points in one week!), this peak month is only two and a half times the average for the first six months of the war, not counting losses.

However here is where I start getting a little confused. In one game I did not increase the factories yet by June, 1942 I had filled out virtually all of my forces (not including Manchuria), replaced losses and had a few hundred points in the pool. IF you only get one armament point per day per armament factory (see page 180 of the manual and a separate thread) you will produce 90,300 points which, with the 20,000 you start with, gives a total of 110,300 points produced. So how did I fill out 538,000 points of new production as well as replace losses and fill out the partial-at-start units? Even if all the new units arrived at 25% strength for free, that still leaves 403,500 points just for the new units.

[&:][&:]

[tsimmonds]

[:(][&:][X(]

<struck speechless>

[jwilkerson]

Unfortunately my general practice has been somewhat the opposite from POMPACKs .. while I have not yet increased armaments in any of my games ( most advanced May 43 ... least advanced current active game Sept 42 ) ... I do turn off replacements for all units from the start and only selectively turn on replacements ( usually for attacking / beseiging stacks only ). Up until May 43 I had a slightly increasing 22K points of armaments which now that i've started turning on the forward garrisons that I think are Allied targets - I'm starting to drop AM points pretty quickly ... but I've never tried to fill everyone out in 1942 ... but tried to save in this area ( and spend in other areas ! )

But if his numbers and assumptions are correct - then there must be another ( LARGE ) pool of AM points somewhere he is drawing from !!!

[pompack]

ORIGINAL: jwilkerson


But if his numbers and assumptions are correct - then there must be another ( LARGE ) pool of AM points somewhere he is drawing from !!!

Possible explanations

1. Reinforcement units arrive with subordinate elements (at least some of them) in addition to the 25% freebe
2. Each factory produces six armament points instead of one
3. other?

[jwilkerson]

ORIGINAL: pompack

ORIGINAL: jwilkerson


But if his numbers and assumptions are correct - then there must be another ( LARGE ) pool of AM points somewhere he is drawing from !!!

Possible explanations

1. Reinforcement units arrive with subordinate elements (at least some of them) in addition to the 25% freebe
2. Each factory produces six armament points instead of one
3. other?

Well I'd strongly suspect 1 is the case ... since I just got 61 I.D. ( in Tokyo ) and 303 Infantry Squads ( out of 200 and something ) and didn't lose more than 1-2k armaments points that turn ( in addition to everything else I was replacing ) ... so reinforcements ( not dead guys comming back ) may eat out of "another pool" ...

[pompack]

Additional data points:
First, I found some records of that particular AI game.
20000 7dec41
12702 11dec41
200 30dec41
5 28jan42
897 9feb42
1098 28feb42
1593 10mar42
1580 17mar42
13958 12aug42
I wish I had data for Apr-Jul 42 and I wish I had left some record of what replacements I turned on when. However, I gradually turned on replacements for everyone except the Manchuria units. By the time I dropped it, the only units outside Manchuria that were not full strength were the one's deployed out of range of HQs.

Second, here is a game where I have a save; once again the numbers just don't match.

596 factories with 24,002 in the pool as of 12sep42. I did check on every divison and all 52 of them were at full strength (including Manchuria). Running some numbers quickly

166,800 produced assuming 596 factories from 7dec41 at one point/factory
650,310 required for reinforcement units at 100%
487,700 required for reinforcement units at 75%

This descrepency of at least 320,000 points is in addition to losses for 10 months and building up the defecient at-start units

[jwilkerson]

Hum,

Well the on map guys would be using the pool ... looks like somehow you hit a "feature" that allowed the pool to overflow ... like maybe by first driving it negative ... though I doubt you're the first person to do that !

So don't know how you did it - but I'd wonder if it was repeatable ( in another game ) and hence do we know the pre-conditions for this strange event to occur ... I certainly haven't been "so lucky" in any of my games !!!

[pompack]

ORIGINAL: jwilkerson

So don't know how you did it - but I'd wonder if it was repeatable ( in another game ) and hence do we know the pre-conditions for this strange event to occur ... I certainly haven't been "so lucky" in any of my games !!!

As for repeatable, the data in the posts above is from two Japanese games against the AI. I have written records of the first (to 12aug42) and a save for the second (as of 12 sep42).

In addition, I found a third save that is from an ALLIED game against the AI. Pullin the Japanese stats, I found

751 factory points with 90,000 armament points in the pool as of 31aug43

IF it produced at this level from 7dec41, this would produce 475,000 points by 31aug43
But the total points of reinforcemtns to that date is 1,215,000

A lot of units were understrength, but there had clearly been a LOT of casulties as well (remember AI playing Japan here).

Now getting back to one of Irrelevant's points (after all it IS his thread [:D]): how many factories should you build? It probably doesn't matter whether the Japanese get more than than one armament point per factory or many units come in partially filled or there is some other pool out there. Given that you would like to generate full units most of the time instead of depending on the 25% "emergency mobilization" factor, the data that I have found seems to say that Japan needs more than 501 factories but less than 751. This is pretty much in the range that people were quoting above (way above by now [:)]).

So after throwing away all of the numbers, tables and charts that I have generated today trying to predict this analytically, I think I will build up to about 650 and not fill out the IJ base forces which is where this thread started.[X(]

I love this game [8D]

[pompack]

I have just completed some tests to try to determine the relationship between Reinforcement LCU and Manpower/Armament point usage. The results contain several interesting points and a couple of major surprises.

The Test consisted of Scen 15, non-Historical run Head-to-Head with all replacements turned off, all a/c in Stand-down and minimal TF movement.. It ran for two weeks and Manpower and Armament pool levels were monitored. The Manpower pool never went below 100,000 and the Armament pool never went below 19,975. “Load Points” are AP Load Points where there are distinctions made in the screens. Manpower and Armament usage from the pool is estimated by assuming that the new points added to the pool on the days reinforcements arrive are the same as the previous day. Detailed day by day data is available and the data for key dates are provided below (for the numbers people).

Surprising Points: [X(]
1, The 16, 17, 18 and 20 December reinforcement units all arrived at 53% strength in spite of the fact that there were more Manpower and Armament points in the pool than load points arriving, even at full strength values. The 14 December reinforcement units arrived at full strength as expected. Why not the rest?

2. The number of load points produced per Armament Point used varied between 6.3 and 9.9 where the Manual states it should be 1.0.

Interesting Points: [:'(]
1. The Manpower points used from the pool were apparently slightly less than expected, with 1.1-1.3 load points produced for each Manpower point used (Manual states 1.0). This is probably due to the known variability in the calculation of “Load Points” OR to the fact that some LCU elements may use AP and others AK load points for the calculation.

2. For the reinforcements that arrived 14 December, the Reinforcement Screen predicted 3852 load points but 24,568 actually arrived with all units at 100%.

3. While the mix of units on 16,17,18, and 20 December were all very similar, the units that arrived on 13 December had a different composition (more support and aviation). Fewer Load Points were produced per manpower point but more per armament point, a not unexpected result since the additional elements would be manpower-intensive. While that makes sense, it is not in accordance with the manual which treats all Load Points (once computed) the same.

4. Even though many units arrived at half strength, there does not seem to be any “Emergency Mobilization”. If it had been there, the manpower and armament costs per “paid” load point would double for those days.

Non-surprising point: [8|]
1. The Manpower points and Armament points were added to the pools in accordance with the Manual (5 manpower points/center and 1 armament point/factory).

My Conclusions
1. Don’t wreck your economy trying to bring in all units at full strength; you won’t be able to do it anyway. If “Emergency Mobilization” really works, it will significantly reduce the number of armament and manpower points you need.

2. For planning purposes assume you need “about” one manpower point per load point produced and repair pop centers accordingly

3. For planning purposes, assume you need “about” 0.2 armament points per load point produced. Treat Emergency Mobilization as a safety factor. This means that you need an average of 380 factories working to produce all reinforcement units at full strength through July, 1943. Guesstimate how many losses you will have in that period (say … 650,000 load points or 26 division equivalents) and you get the number of factories you need (say ….570-600).



Data: The table below is hosed as usual [:@]



Date Estimated Manpower Used Estimated Armaments Used Predicted Load Points Actual Load Points Strength at Deployment Load Points/ Manpower Point actual Load Points/ Armament Point
12/14/1941 21496 2472 3852 24568 100% 1.14 9.94
12/16/1941 3672 772 9648 4840 53% 1.32 6.27
12/17/1941 5446 1146 14352 7176 53% 1.32 6.26
12/18/1941 5496 1146 14352 7176 53% 1.31 6.26
12/20/1941 1824 374 4672 2336 53% 1.28 6.25

[Gen.Hoepner]

mmm...my teatcher was right: i should have better studied math when i was at high school.....[&:]

[doktorblood]

What is "emergency mobilization"? and how do you activate it? I've had reinforcements arrive as low as 6% and as high as 100%.

[pompack]

ORIGINAL: doktorblood

What is "emergency mobilization"? and how do you activate it? I've had reinforcements arrive as low as 6% and as high as 100%.

I Page 183 in Manual (section 13.5). If the production system "cannot fill out" a newly arriving unit, it is placed on the map at 25% without any cost from the Manpower and Armament pools.

[Mike Solli]

I'm of the school that believes in filling out understrength reinforcements as they arrive in Japan, particularly the BFs. I hate sending a BF out to an island alone without any infantry support. It's too easy for a tiny Allied force to take them out. I start the game with replacements off and selectively turn units on as needed. Remember to keep a list of those turned on so you can turn them off when they are where you need them to be. For BFs though, I grow them to the max strength possible. They will have 40 inf/SNLF squads (in most cases) which will at least force the Allied player to send a larger force to take them.

[ChezDaJez]

I'm of the school that believes in filling out understrength reinforcements as they arrive in Japan, particularly the BFs. I hate sending a BF out to an island alone without any infantry support.

Depends on where the island is at. I have no problem sending them to Saipan, Iwo Jima, etc understrength and alone provided they are behind the main defensive line. Same with the PI and Borneo after they are captured.

Chez

[tsimmonds]

I just stumbled on a way to both deploy these units on the front lines right away where their aviation support is much needed, and at the same time leave them in the Home Islands where they will most rapidly fill out with additional general support and SNLF squads.

Load the Base Force onto a few APs. Once the BF is fully loaded, find the AP with the main part of the unit. Form this single AP into a different TF, then unload it back onto the base it came from. Set this part to accept replacements. Send the rest of the unit (which will have a greater or lesser portion of the unit, depending on how many APs you loaded it onto to begin with) off to wherever, while the main portion stays in the Home Islands, accruing support and SNLF squads.

[jwilkerson]

Known as "Having your cake and eating it too" !!!

[tsimmonds]

Well, everybody likes cake[;)]