AI for MWiF - Commonwealth

[CBoehm]

Furthermore, an agressive Italian might be able to transport stuff to Syria for a backdoor at the Canal zone, so the AI might need to keep an eye out for that as well.

This is one reason why I in general advocate NOT advancing from Egypt until you are ready...soo many times I have seen a CW player advance to try to kill a few IT units around Tobruk only to realize that he has no reaction force close enough to contain and kill an invasion in Palastine or Syria before it gets out of hand...

[CBoehm]

ORIGINAL:
The primary immediate impact of the Axis seizing Suez is to increase the length of CW convoy routes. That's a survivable development. For the Axis to truly exploit the capture of Suez, they need to make a game-altering commitment of force. I have done it, but wouldn't recommend it. The logistical effort required for operations in India/Persia/East Africa is tremendous. It's a good game-ending strategy if the Allies are losing everywhere else, but not a good primary strategy.

Gibraltar is ALL IMPORTANT no question about that - but after that dont underestemate the Suez...possesing the Suez allows the axis to respond to the allies applying strategic "weight" against JAP or GE/IT...either by (very carefully!) stationing a part of the JAP CV fleet in Aden where it has the option of joining the battle for the MED...or shift a part of the IT fleet to Singapore to reinforce the JAP antisubwar...it can be VERY helpful for JAP to be able to start a turn with a land or combined...knowing that the IT fleet will help protect their conwoylines.....likewise if JAP is hard pressed IT can build cp's to loose the burden of building those on Japan. - In my last game in 42 IT (&GE) had in this way sent most of its LS fleet to Singapore & Aden, 2 NAV bombers...and the 41 fw190 7factor fighter and build around 10 exstra cp. to help bolster the faltering JAP against a VERY aggressive US player... (which incidently resulted in USSR collapsing exactly because the US was farting around in the pacific, when USSR was in dire trouble[;)]).

[Froonp]

Hmmm. I am new, but it seems to me that the canal is more important than Malta. Keeping the Suez Canal and Gibraltar helps to keep the Italians in the Med. You can lose Malta and still have the Itlalian fleet corked up. (Tougher, sure.)

Malta is very important for the conquest of Italy.
The conquest of Italy is very important in the defeat of the Euro Axis.
The reconquest of Malta for the CW is making the CW late on the tight schedule.

Suez on the other hands, even if it has its importance, is not as critical as Malta for the CW offensives.
Suez will be taken back by 2nd line troops when Italy will have surrendered.

Furthermore, an agressive Italian might be able to transport stuff to Syria for a backdoor at the Canal zone, so the AI might need to keep an eye out for that as well.

An agressive Italian can only transport a couple of units in Africa in a turn. Compared to the CW sealift, Italy has virtually no way to take the CW backdoor. We tried last game, attacking from Egypt & Syria. We were puched back ad swept in less than 2 turns.

How important is Cyprus or Crete to the CW in the defense of the Eastern Med and/or the Canal?

Useless. There are enough bases in North Africa, and bringing supply to Cyprus or Crete is as difficult as bringing supply to Egypt for the Axis.

[Froonp]

well I did say that it was my thoughts on STRATEGY ...not tactics, and if you think that CW can take the STRATEGIC offence before the US enters the war then I would love to play a game against you. IMO its all very fine to try to knock Italy out by 41 and the threat should definately be there, although any competent axis player can avoid this with ease...but a CW player who loses sight of whats truly important and forgets to garrison the pacific by M/J 41 in order to grab Tripoli in M/A 41 instead of S/O 41 have his priorities backwards IMO....

Sorry if I went too far from what you originaly talked about. That's what passion is all about !!! [:D]
Now, about the strategic offense power of the CW in 1941-42 I say it is real, and it must be used.
You say that any comptent Axis player can avoid with ease the CW threat in 1941 against Italy, but it is exactly what it is all about. The CW threat against Italy is both to try to knock it out (at least begin to -- I recognise that I only managed once to KO Italy in 1941, even if I nearly always took Tripoli in late 40 / early 41), and also to muster Axis troops against you. Remember that 1941 is the key year where the Axis is supposed to do Barbarossa. If the Germans are doing a close the med strategy or a sea lion, sure there is no way for the CW to be offensive.

I just want to say that, I prefer to try to threaten Italy and achieve a better offensive position in the Med, rather than do raid invasion in western Europe or Denmark or the Netherlands, because these places in 41-42 lead nowhere.

[c92nichj]

An agressive Italian can only transport a couple of units in Africa in a turn. Compared to the CW sealift, Italy has virtually no way to take the CW backdoor. We tried last game, attacking from Egypt & Syria. We were puched back ad swept in less than 2 turns.

If you aim for a conquest of Suez as the axis you should try to do it from both east and west, which will make the defence much harder for the CW (till not very hard)
Personally I think an attack on Suez prior a conquest of Gibraltar is a waste of time and resources, unless CW has totally stripped it and you can pick it up using a minimum force (wavell in France '39 might be such a case).

[c92nichj]

I just want to say that, I prefer to try to threaten Italy and achieve a better offensive position in the Med, rather than do raid invasion in western Europe or Denmark or the Netherlands, because these places in 41-42 lead nowhere.

Totally agree here, a couple of CW units in Rotterdam/Amsterdam is very annoying though especially if the get in during the autumn they are likely to survive all winter keeping the annoyance level high. So as germany you should always keep garrision around the Benelux cities.

[Froonp]

I agree with having up to 6 surface ASW units in the "0" box along with a spare NAV or CVL if you got it. (Like the Argus.) I also put a CVL in the highest box it will reach. My question is why have the extra surface units in the higher box? I believe Naval Air combat trumps Sub combat if the search rolls come out that both spot...

Is it so you can keep them "at sea" between turns (moving them down to the "0" box when declaring them "at sea"), and not leave the convoys uncovered at the start of a new turn?

The units in the 4 box stay at sea and drift to the 3 box at the end of the turn.
The Units in the 1 box stay at sea and drift into the 1 box (those in the 4 box cannot drift into the 1 box, because you descend 1 box if you stay at sea, not the number you want).
Next turn, new ships are sailed into the 4 box, and those in the 3 box are shifted to the 1 box.

Putting planes only in the 4 box is good too, but it is harder. You need to actually have those planes, and you need to use Air Missions to put them there. This is generaly possible at one point of the war, but not for the most part. If you send a carrier in the 4 box, you can't send it alone, it must itself be escorted too.

[Froonp]

Which brings up another point: Deciding when to "Dunkirk" your stuff out of a failed (France/Greece/or any continental area) defence plan. Not sure where to draw that magic line...

Believe me, when it is time, you see it [:D]
Another peace of advice, when you "dunkirk" as you said, just embark the units at the end of a naval move of TRS into the North Sea, then in the following land move phase, immediately debark them into or around Bayonne, in case the german is next going into Spain. You should also have asked the French unit to put their reinforceents in this area too. If the German is up to Gibraltar, you'll be happy.

[Froonp]

Personally, I would rather lose Malta than the Suez. Malta can be cut off from supply by the Italian fleet, while Egypt cannot.

Egypt can be put out of supply, it is just as easy as Malta.
Remember that CW units in Egypt use Le Caire as a Secondary supply source. Only the Egyptian units (i.e. the territorials) take supply from the Egyptian cities who are primarty supply sources for them.
The secondary supply sources need to trace back to a primary supply source.
So, to cut supply to Malta, you need to empty 2 Sea Areas of any Allied CP or TRS / AMPH.
To cut supply to Egypt you need to do the same. Empty 2 Sea Areas of any Allied CP or TRS / AMPH.
The only difference is that for Malta the Italian can do it by themselves, and for Egypt they need the help of Japan.
With the same player controlling both, I say it is not a problem.
I for one even already conquered Egypt with Japan, not only to help Italy, but for the objectives too. It was the bigger victory I ever achieved in WiF FE... ah.... memories of the good old days....[;)]

[Froonp]

In my last game in 42 IT (&GE) had in this way sent most of its LS fleet to Singapore & Aden, 2 NAV bombers...and the 41 fw190 7factor fighter and build around 10 exstra cp. to help bolster the faltering JAP against a VERY aggressive US player...

With Japan & Italy not cooperating, who did you garrison Singapore ? with Italian Units ???
Taking itno consideration the poor range of the Italian Navy, I think it is of little use out of the Med. Morover, the supply to Italy is too easily broken by the Allies to risk a fleet that far.
That said, if the allies were in the ropes, why not do this kind of wild things [;)]

[Froonp]

ORIGINAL: c92nichj

An agressive Italian can only transport a couple of units in Africa in a turn. Compared to the CW sealift, Italy has virtually no way to take the CW backdoor. We tried last game, attacking from Egypt & Syria. We were puched back ad swept in less than 2 turns.

If you aim for a conquest of Suez as the axis you should try to do it from both east and west, which will make the defence much harder for the CW (till not very hard)
Personally I think an attack on Suez prior a conquest of Gibraltar is a waste of time and resources, unless CW has totally stripped it and you can pick it up using a minimum force (wavell in France '39 might be such a case).

I agree.
The attack on Egypt can also be done while the Gibraltar campaing is going on, the CW may well be too busy defending Gibraltar. But I'e not yet did or seen done this way.

[Froonp]

ORIGINAL: c92nichj

I just want to say that, I prefer to try to threaten Italy and achieve a better offensive position in the Med, rather than do raid invasion in western Europe or Denmark or the Netherlands, because these places in 41-42 lead nowhere.

Totally agree here, a couple of CW units in Rotterdam/Amsterdam is very annoying though especially if the get in during the autumn they are likely to survive all winter keeping the annoyance level high. So as germany you should always keep garrision around the Benelux cities.

Hey, why do you say "totaly agree" then immediately give an example that is the contrary to what you said you completely agreed ? [X(] [;)]
Those CW units in Rotterdam / Amsterdam or anywhere else have no perspective of improving their position and be milestone for the reconquest of Europe. The units Germany will put around them to prevent them from moving will be the same Germany would have put there in garrison and sent in Italy to bolster the Italian defenses.
Those CW units in Rotterdam / Amsterdam are time & effort wasted, speaking of the long term.
Now, maybe the operationnal situation warrants this operation, but generaly it is a waste in my opinion (this said respectfully and in total gamer's friendship).[;)]

[composer99]

(2) Which major powers to declare war on, when, and any associated conditions concerning same.

For the CW, this is a set of decisions that (thankfully) does not often have to get made, since in most scenarios it's already at war with most or all of its opponents. To whit:

Germany: The CW begins every WiF scenario it appears in either declaring war upon or already at war with Germany from the get-go. Easy enough.

Italy: The CW has to make a decision about war with Italy in the following scenarios: Fascist Tide (1939 2-map) and Global War (1939). It is at war with Italy in all other scenarios.

Japan: The CW has to make a decision about war with Japan in the Global War, Missed the Bus, and Lebensraum campaigns. It may have to make a decision in the Waking Giant campaign and the Day of Infamy 2-map scenario if the Japanese player (mysteriously) doesn't declare war. It is at war with Japan in all other scenarios those two powers appear in.

There should be a reasonable way of formulating a general process by which CW, or any other power for that matter, chooses to declare war on another one.

Balance of Forces
What is CW's balance of forces vs. Italy or Japan? The overall picture would range along some kind of axis, from Extremely Unfavourable to Extremely Favourable to somewhere in between. The balance of forces would be defined by a number of sub-properties, some of which I will list here.

Absolute number of units: Quantity is its own quality. The more units of each type the CW has than Italy or Japan do in the potential theatre of conflict, the more favourable things are for the CW, and vice-versa.

Quality of units: Who has more white-print units? Who has more combat factors? Who has better air units? Who has better naval units?

Nature and positioning of units: Are the CW's units in theatre a bunch of ARM/MECH stuffed against the Libyan border or MAR/PARA sitting in Rabaul waiting to be deployed? Or are they GARR, MIL, positioned on key garrison cities.

Logistics: How easy is it for the CW to keep its forces in supply? How easy is it for Italy or Japan, in the event that the CW goes to war with them, to do the same?

Reinforcements: How much additional force can the CW bring in to the theatre once the war begins, & how much can Italy or Japan bring in?

Short-Term Consequences of CW DoW
What are the expected short-term military & political consequences of a CW DoW (that is, during the surprise impulse & the rest of the turn that the war begins in)? Once again, an axis along which Least Favourable to Most Favourable consequences appears, with discrete points in between at presumably regular intervals.

Destruction of Enemy Materiél: How much damage can the CW inflict during the surprise impulse, and what sort of units is it destroying anyway?

Territorial Gains: How much territory, especially resource & victory hexes, will the CW gain during the surprise impulse & the rest of the turn?

Expected Losses: What does the CW expect to lose in the surprise impulse & the rest of the turn?

US Entry: Can the US entry pool handle the worst-case chit loss?

Long-Term Consequences of CW DoW
What are the long-term military & political consequences of a CW declaration of war on Italy or Japan rather than vice-versa?

Commitment to Theatre: How much commitment will this theatre demand from the CW if it goes on the attack right away? Can it afford to meet that commitment over time?

Protracted Contests: Can the CW's forces in place handle fighting a long-fought contest over the sea areas & land regions in the theatre under consideration? If they can't, what additional forces are needed to allow them to do so?

Long-Term US Entry: By declaring war and taking away US entry chits, what delay will the CW inflict upon the selection of key US entry options, and more importantly how long will US entry into the war be delayed? For this section, the average values of chits in each year comes into play.

Consequences of Reverse Situation
While of course the CW may be declaring war upon Italy or Japan because it believes it has a better balance of forces, can inflict damage and take turf in the short run, and tough it out for the long run, sometimes the CW will consider declaring war on them just to keep them from getting a surprise impulse on it. So, the CW will want to analyse the situation as much as it can from the standpoint of Italy or Japan, using all the above considerations, and decide if it is in their favour to declare war soon on the CW.

The more critical the surprise impulse Japan or Italy will get if they declare war compared to the rest of the struggle, the more likely the CW will want to pre-empt them.

Likely Results
Taking all the latter into account, I think that the CW has a reasonable chance of declaring war on Italy anytime in 1939-1940, and it will depend on what can be made of the surprise impulse. By contrast, the CW will probably not be even close to declaring war on Japan until some time in 1942, by which point it is almost certainly moot since Japan will most likely have declared war on the CW.

[c92nichj]

Hey, why do you say "totaly agree" then immediately give an example that is the contrary to what you said you completely agreed

I totally agree with you that Italy is a better place to invade for CW. But if you can get ina a unit or two in the lowlands it will be annoying for the german player. Not nearly as annoying as an invasion in Italy which have to be contained preferably kicked back into the sea which will require quite an effort.

[Froonp]

Thanks for the clarification.
I loved the discussion [;)]
I'm happy that some more people seem to have got interest in those forums.
What ? [X(] I'm off-topic ???[&:] Oh, sure, oops, sorry, Cheers !!! [:D]

[c92nichj]

Always happy to discuss, hopefully I contribute something aswell.

I'd love to play a PBEM game against you when this get's out. You can then prove that you have the superior strategy & tactic [;)]

[Froonp]

Yes, would be great !!!!
And if you're in the same time zone as I am, we could even do TCP/IP game !!! [:D]
Anyway, I find that we're not very far away in our thinkings.

[pak19652002]

The reason more people are getting involved here is that they now believe this game is going to succeed. Steve's approach is working, to say the least.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: composer99

(2) Which major powers to declare war on, when, and any associated conditions concerning same.

For the CW, this is a set of decisions that (thankfully) does not often have to get made, since in most scenarios it's already at war with most or all of its opponents. To whit:

Germany: The CW begins every WiF scenario it appears in either declaring war upon or already at war with Germany from the get-go. Easy enough.

Italy: The CW has to make a decision about war with Italy in the following scenarios: Fascist Tide (1939 2-map) and Global War (1939). It is at war with Italy in all other scenarios.

Japan: The CW has to make a decision about war with Japan in the Global War, Missed the Bus, and Lebensraum campaigns. It may have to make a decision in the Waking Giant campaign and the Day of Infamy 2-map scenario if the Japanese player (mysteriously) doesn't declare war. It is at war with Japan in all other scenarios those two powers appear in.

There should be a reasonable way of formulating a general process by which CW, or any other power for that matter, chooses to declare war on another one.

Balance of Forces
What is CW's balance of forces vs. Italy or Japan? The overall picture would range along some kind of axis, from Extremely Unfavourable to Extremely Favourable to somewhere in between. The balance of forces would be defined by a number of sub-properties, some of which I will list here.

Absolute number of units: Quantity is its own quality. The more units of each type the CW has than Italy or Japan do in the potential theatre of conflict, the more favourable things are for the CW, and vice-versa.

Quality of units: Who has more white-print units? Who has more combat factors? Who has better air units? Who has better naval units?

Nature and positioning of units: Are the CW's units in theatre a bunch of ARM/MECH stuffed against the Libyan border or MAR/PARA sitting in Rabaul waiting to be deployed? Or are they GARR, MIL, positioned on key garrison cities.

Logistics: How easy is it for the CW to keep its forces in supply? How easy is it for Italy or Japan, in the event that the CW goes to war with them, to do the same?

Reinforcements: How much additional force can the CW bring in to the theatre once the war begins, & how much can Italy or Japan bring in?

Short-Term Consequences of CW DoW
What are the expected short-term military & political consequences of a CW DoW (that is, during the surprise impulse & the rest of the turn that the war begins in)? Once again, an axis along which Least Favourable to Most Favourable consequences appears, with discrete points in between at presumably regular intervals.

Destruction of Enemy Materiél: How much damage can the CW inflict during the surprise impulse, and what sort of units is it destroying anyway?

Territorial Gains: How much territory, especially resource & victory hexes, will the CW gain during the surprise impulse & the rest of the turn?

Expected Losses: What does the CW expect to lose in the surprise impulse & the rest of the turn?

US Entry: Can the US entry pool handle the worst-case chit loss?

Long-Term Consequences of CW DoW
What are the long-term military & political consequences of a CW declaration of war on Italy or Japan rather than vice-versa?

Commitment to Theatre: How much commitment will this theatre demand from the CW if it goes on the attack right away? Can it afford to meet that commitment over time?

Protracted Contests: Can the CW's forces in place handle fighting a long-fought contest over the sea areas & land regions in the theatre under consideration? If they can't, what additional forces are needed to allow them to do so?

Long-Term US Entry: By declaring war and taking away US entry chits, what delay will the CW inflict upon the selection of key US entry options, and more importantly how long will US entry into the war be delayed? For this section, the average values of chits in each year comes into play.

Consequences of Reverse Situation
While of course the CW may be declaring war upon Italy or Japan because it believes it has a better balance of forces, can inflict damage and take turf in the short run, and tough it out for the long run, sometimes the CW will consider declaring war on them just to keep them from getting a surprise impulse on it. So, the CW will want to analyse the situation as much as it can from the standpoint of Italy or Japan, using all the above considerations, and decide if it is in their favour to declare war soon on the CW.

The more critical the surprise impulse Japan or Italy will get if they declare war compared to the rest of the struggle, the more likely the CW will want to pre-empt them.

Likely Results
Taking all the latter into account, I think that the CW has a reasonable chance of declaring war on Italy anytime in 1939-1940, and it will depend on what can be made of the surprise impulse. By contrast, the CW will probably not be even close to declaring war on Japan until some time in 1942, by which point it is almost certainly moot since Japan will most likely have declared war on the CW.

Very nice. My kind of analysis.

I have developed a metric for measuring the absolute and relative strength of forces, so we can assume that your scale of unfavorable to favorable strength of forces is already in place. This applies to combat losses and the value of territorial gains too.

The effect of a surprise impulse can be measured using this metric, regardless of which country is declaring war. So, the AIO has a quanitfied measure of the benefit of declaring war and of the pain of being on the other end of the war declaration.

The use of an offensive chit concurrent with the DOW can also be measured, for all the possible uses of the O Chit.

The quality of the units is taken into consideration in the metric for balance of forces.

The points you raise that I haven't figured out yet are: the value of positioning, the impact of supply/logistics, and long term commitment of forces (i.e., reinforcements). The tricky bit about supply is not the effect it has, but measuring the likelihood of it being cut off 2 or 3 turns in the future.

The immediate effect on the US entry pool is easy for the AIO to calculate. It is somewhat harder to measure the long term effects of not being able to take some other US entry choice or action. I'm working on that and believe I can figured it out/calculate it.

In summary, it looks like what the AIO will do is analyze of the current board position and measure the benefit of the CW declaring war on Italy (for example). Using the result of this calculation, the AIO will compare it to a threshold level that separates do from don't declare war. There might be a probability somewhere in there to keep the AIO from being too predictable. I also like to try to see if things are going to be better next impulse or next turn and maybe delay until then if the additional benefit is juicy enough. These subtle differences are where I see adding different personalities for how the AIO plays each country during different games.

Thanks for your list. I expect every element to be part of the AIO's consideration for whether to declare war or not.

[composer99]

(3) Which minor countries to declare war on, when, and any associated conditions concerning same.

In many ways this is much easier than deciding when to declare war on major powers, but in many ways it is also much harder. It is much easier because arranging for the balance of forces to be in the CW's favour is quite simple. It is much harder because the decision-making process is a bit more involved.

The considerations for declaring war on a major power will probably be brought into play here as well, but I suspect the additional considerations will be:

Availability of Enemy Support: To what extent can enemy major powers support this minor if the CW attacks it? Attacking Spain in 1942 with the intent of driving to the Pyrennes is not likely to be so workable when big, nasty Wehrmacht units come out to play. Attacking Portugal in 1940 because you want the Azores is very sensible precisely because Germany is rarely in a position to intervene, and as a result is a common event.

Who Gets the Victory Hex(es)? More often than not for the CW, this consideration will lead you to not attack a minor, as more often than not, given the spread of CW major power home country capitals (primarily London and Dehli), the CW will be getting the victory hexes anyway for many minors. Out of common courtesy the CW shouldn't go out of its way to attack minors that would, in the absence of Axis competitors, go to other Allied powers. This should probably be quite low on the priority list of things to consider.

Does it Improve the Strategic Position vs. the Axis? Probably the most important consideration. Declaring war on Portugal to take control of the Azores can lead to drastic improvements in the Battle of the Atlantic - you airbases in the North Atlantic sea area, more airbases than just Gibraltar in Cape St. Vincent, and additional airbases in Bay of Biscay, and Portugal makes a handy go-between spot for shorter-range aircraft re-basing to Gibraltar & the Med. If you're desperate to project naval power into the Baltic and more airpower over Germany, you may find that attacking Norway will do the trick and will improve your position vis-à-vis the Axis. Declaring war on Ecuador or Liberia does almost nothing in this regard. If the Yugoslav situation has not been resolved by the Axis in one way or another, then an attack on Greece might prove useful to stuff it with units and align Yugoslavia on the Allied side, especially if German forces are too occupied elsewhere to smash the Yugoslavs that turn.

How Much of a Distraction is it from Fighting the Axis? The CW's enemies are Germany, Italy, and Japan. Side campaigns to attack minors when such efforts would only divert precious troops, planes, and ships from fighting those enemies will probably rate low on the AI's list of things to do.

Is the Minor Likely to Align to CW or another Allied Power? Chances are, the Netherlands and Belgium will end up being CW-aligned minor countries on account of Germany declaring war on them. Why should the CW deny itself the units, take away from US entry instead of having Germany add to it, and give Germany or someone else free territory and/or resources? If CW declares war on the Netherlands, what's to stop Japan from aligning them (they will be eligible to do so as an active power), getting to keep all the NEI oil for themselves without it getting embargoed, and plonk in garrisons (even if they can't attack CW units, they can still defend against them) in Batavia & the oil hexes? In any event, Germany is highly likely to declare war upon the Netherlands and Belgium because doing so will give it a nice wide front against the French army & no Maginot Line to face while they're at it.

That's everything I can think of at the moment.