Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[John 3rd]

Dan--I think you are wise to spread your reinforcements. It is now late enough that once he frees up a chunk of his army (Singapore) you should know within a month where he is going to go for 'the' thrust.

[Canoerebel]

2/1/42
 
A quiet turn except for the Japanese landing at Carnarvon, Australia, plus the lengthy que of Allied ships undergoing upgrades.

Auto Victory:  A player of Q-Ball's ability can shoot for auto victory - an enticing goal, and one that unsettles me as the Allied player.  The Japanese player has to develop and implement a well-thought-out and effective plan to achieve a 4:1 points ratio by 1/1/43 or else the chance vanishes and the Allies will eventually win the game barring unusual circumstances.  I am proceeding on the assumption that Q-Ball will try to achieve auto-victory, so here's an analysis of how things stand by theater:

NoPac:  All is quiet here except for the Allied stinger missions against Shikuka.  I expect Brad to make a move on the western Aleutians come spring.  I want to land some reinforcements here, but other places take priority.  So he'll probably be able to pick up some islands cheaply. The path to auto-victory doesn't pass through the Aleutians, so these are low priority. Moreover, whatever Brad takes I can later use to draw his attention to this region if I want to create a feint.

CenPac:  My first concern is Midway and the Hawaiin Islands as these are one of the three pathways to auto victory, in my opinion.  About 140 AV are ashore at Midway.  Lihue's garrisoned has been beefed up by a Marine CD unit.  A regiment each are aboard transports heading to Hilo and the base across the big island. Once these reinforcements are in place I will begin attending to some of the other outposts in this area - Palmyra, Christmas, etc.  Thus far CenPac has been very quiet except for a few submarines nosing around.

SoPac:  I don't think SoPac is on a pathway to auto-victory, so except for Pago Pago (and eventually Tahiti), this region is far down the priority list at the moment.  I expect Brad to take Noumea shortly; I think Suva will be on his list; I doubt he'll venture as far out as Pago Pago, but that could change.  I will concede New Zealand if I have to - I prefer to protect Australia.  SoPac has been quiet except for New Caledonia and the New Hebrides, plus a sub lurking at Pago Pago.

SWPac:  Oz is a major concern as the Japanese are landing as far south as Carnarvon, and a land unit is moving south from Coen to Cooktown.  Brad has gone about as far as he can, now, without committing to a major operation that would trouble me greatly.  Reinforcements - and Australian division and two more US Army regiments - are on the way, but Brad might try to implement a blockade if he has serious intentions towards Oz. 

Ceylon/India:  Japan hasn't done anything to suggest that an invasion in this region is coming, but I'm still very suspicious.  Another Australian division arrives at Aden in a few weeks, and I think I'll send it to India.  Unless, that is, Brad does something in the meantime to confirm that he is focusing on Oz rather than India.  Nothings going to happen until Singapore falls, but that won't be long now.

[John 3rd]

Do you REALLY think that India is vulnerable to an all-out Japanese attack?

[Canoerebel]

I think AE is too new for anyone to know for sure. The consensus seems to be that conquering ALL of India is all but impossible, yet it's an idea that occurs to every Japanese player. They mull over it; they drool over a massed landing at some poorly defended coastal base; they relish the thought of armored units and infantry divisions moving through swaths of poorly defended terrain; and they worry about all the unknowns.

It would not surprise me at all if Brad targeted Ceylon and/or northeast India. It WOULD suprise me if he went after the entire sub-continent, but I'm still considering the possibility.

The fact that he has four more infantry divisions to work with adds to my worry.

Hence the positioning of the Allied carriers at Capetown, where they can come to the aid of India or Australia in a pinch.

What do you think, John?

[John 3rd]

I like the India Gambit. Have to admit that. The idea of taking ALL of India to me in insane and not at all realistic. You are accurate in your thinking there I believe.

Your CVs are well placed to cause some serious trouble if that is his thrust. If he moves elsewhere then you will have significant problems in trying to fight his thrust. With as good of a player as you are, I believe that your 'gut' feelings will lead you in the right direction and your bases will be well covered.

Must say there is one other clue to his thinking and that is the total absence of Japanese moves into the Indian Theatre. This perks up my antenna when it comes to intentions. Course I could be TOTALLY wrong! [:-]

My .02 for whatever this counts...

[Canoerebel]

If "total lack of attention" is an indication - and I often think it is - then both India and Hawaii have been equally ignored. For whatever reason, though, my hunch is "India" rather than "Hawaii."

I do think that the Allied carriers will eventually get a crack at something nice if I'm patient and time things correctly. I can insert my carriers into the Indian Ocean pretty quickly and pounce on anything short of the full KB.

As you say, my carriers are out of position to help in the Pacific, but the only place that's vital in that region is Hawaii, and given a little more time to reinforce that will be mainly a ground/air battle.

[Cribtop]

Hawaii is tough and an "all or nothing" proposition. NE India and/or Ceylon can be taken with the objective of fixing Allied attention at a place of his choosing while preventing an early Allied attack in Burma. You may be on to something. His moves in Oz could be seen as a buffer zone strategy, leaving room for India on Q-Ball's plate. Perhaps his goal is to seize buffers standing in the way of both common AE AFB lines of attack, namely Burma and Timor/DEI. If either one looks promising he can go all in, but if not he still achieves important objectives without putting his head in a noose.

[John 3rd]

Concur with Cribtop's thinking here.

[JohnDillworth]

Your CVs are well placed to cause some serious trouble if that is his thrust.

I don't know. If he keeps the KB together you CV's, even with British help, are just going to sink in a different ocean. It's hard to stand up to his 6 CV's. You just don't have the aircraft and number of ships. Now, if he splits them, and you get a bit of land based help, perhaps you can cause some harm. For once the allies might be closer to a dry-dock than the Japanese. Still risky, but as the allies you have to resist somewhere. Make sure you have plenty of search aircraft (well, as many as you can get), force identification and early warning will help.

[Canoerebel]

2/2/42
 
Australia:  The Japanese take Carnarvon.  On the west coast, they now have the ports from Carnarvon north to Derby and Broome.  On the NE side, they have Horn Island and Coen and a unit is about to arrive at Cooktown.  Darwin will be targeted soon - an obvious target that doesn't expose Japan to any threats, though it does require a reasonable commitment of troops.  The big question is whether the Japanese will move on either Perth or Townsville.  That's what I'm waiting to see.

India:  SigInt reports an engineer unit prepping for Colombo.  Early in the game I got a report of a division prepping for Diamond Harbor.  Could be disinformation or could be the real thing.

Reinforcements:  Queen Elizabeth is two or three days out of San Diego.  She has time for one more trip to Oz and will carry most of a RCT.  I just noticed that the coastal artillery unit I transported to Hilo is set to withdraw in about four weeks.  [:(]  My bad.  Two Raider battalions just arrived at San Diego.  One goes to Palmyra and the other to Christmas Island.  I have transports strung out between Ceylon and Oz in the Indian Ocean carrying reinforcements to Adelaide.  I'm a bit worried that Q-Ball will be waiting for this move with Glen-equipped subs and either combat ships or a Mini-KB.  The TFs are widely spaced, though, so if disaster happens it should be limited in scope.

John/Cribtop:  Thanks for the comments (and to all the other guys posting; I read everything even though I may not always reply).  Such a plan by Brad (creating buffers for the DEI and Burma) would be a wise plan, but it would suit me very well if that's all Brad was up to.  That plan would not represent a threat of auto-victory. But Brad is aggressive enough, and has already moved very far very fast, that I expect something big somewhere at some point within the next few months.

JohnDillworth: Yes, your right. I have no intention of taking on the full KB. I won't use my carriers unless I get an opportunity to ambush a weaker carrier force (a Mini KB) or a juicy combat or transport TF.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin

Ah if you click again at their air skill or any other, the list is reversed and the worst one are on top and stay there.
Also if you select the pilots with a mouse click and confirm it using the "y" key it goes pretty fast.

The problem is that fighter, bomber, etc. pilots are all mixed together. So, using A2A skill as an example, the very worst A2A pilots will be non-fighter pilots. The worst A2A fighter pilots, which are the ones you want to train in A2A, will always be in the middle of the list, no matter which direction you sort it.

[:(]

Yes a simple filter to remove the unwanted pilot types from sight, just like they have in most any other menu would solve the problem. So that I could click "reseve" pool and then filter out all pilots but fighter pilots. No brainer here.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think AE is too new for anyone to know for sure. The consensus seems to be that conquering ALL of India is all but impossible, yet it's an idea that occurs to every Japanese player. They mull over it; they drool over a massed landing at some poorly defended coastal base; they relish the thought of armored units and infantry divisions moving through swaths of poorly defended terrain; and they worry about all the unknowns.

It would not surprise me at all if Brad targeted Ceylon and/or northeast India. It WOULD suprise me if he went after the entire sub-continent, but I'm still considering the possibility.

The fact that he has four more infantry divisions to work with adds to my worry.

Hence the positioning of the Allied carriers at Capetown, where they can come to the aid of India or Australia in a pinch.

What do you think, John?

There is not much else you can do. If you opt for scen#2 vs an crack Japanese player then the key to autovictory prevention is to resist but never put yourself in a positon where you lose big chunks of ships or troops. If he can't not get to them, then I doubt Japan can win on territory alone. The one thing that is clear in my experience is that until about 8/42 (or later), there is pretty much no point on the map that a skilled Japanese player can't take. The key is to make him fight but not to place your hopes in a position where you could lose your carriers or a bunch of key troops. Subs, surface ships, auxilaries, merchies all can be risked and are somewhat expendable. Divisions and carriers should be protected like a Sicilian little sister.

This is not to say that a mistake should not be exploited but you have been there before and know what to do. [&o]

[John 3rd]

Agreed!

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: crsutton
There is not much else you can do. If you opt for scen#2 vs an crack Japanese player then the key to autovictory prevention is to resist but never put yourself in a positon where you lose big chunks of ships or troops. If he can't not get to them, then I doubt Japan can win on territory alone. The one thing that is clear in my experience is that until about 8/42 (or later), there is pretty much no point on the map that a skilled Japanese player can't take. The key is to make him fight but not to place your hopes in a position where you could lose your carriers or a bunch of key troops. Subs, surface ships, auxilaries, merchies all can be risked and are somewhat expendable. Divisions and carriers should be protected like a Sicilian little sister.

This is not to say that a mistake should not be exploited but you have been there before and know what to do. [&o]

I'm not sure what it means to be "protected like a Sicilian little sister," but I think I get the idea.

Good insight about Scenario Two and a capable Japanese opponent. I agree with you that it's nearly impossible to stop the Japanese wherever their attention is concentrated. I've already given up some ground without a fight (Port Moresby) and am prepared to likewise surrender New Caledonia (about to happen), Fiji, and even New Zealand should that become necessary. Even if I sent my reinforcements to one or more of those bases, they wouldn't be enough (in early '42) to stop a full-scale Japanese attack. Were I to try, I would then be leaving even more vital bases exposed to attack.

I don't want to risk the loss of masses of soldiers, so essentially all reinforcements are going to India, Oz, and Hawaii. I don't think Q-Ball can vanquish any of those targets entirely, but if he does then I'll be busy counting points to see if auto-victory is about to occur.

Sometime in late '42 (I hope that your 8/42 comment is on target!) the Allies have enough ground troops to work with - and enough political points to buy restricted units - to go toe to toe with the enemy in a major land engagement, but not before then.

[AcePylut]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin

Ah if you click again at their air skill or any other, the list is reversed and the worst one are on top and stay there.
Also if you select the pilots with a mouse click and confirm it using the "y" key it goes pretty fast.

The problem is that fighter, bomber, etc. pilots are all mixed together. So, using A2A skill as an example, the very worst A2A pilots will be non-fighter pilots. The worst A2A fighter pilots, which are the ones you want to train in A2A, will always be in the middle of the list, no matter which direction you sort it.

[:(]

Yes a simple filter to remove the unwanted pilot types from sight, just like they have in most any other menu would solve the problem. So that I could click "reseve" pool and then filter out all pilots but fighter pilots. No brainer here.

Not to hijack the aar, but does it matter if a pilot is assigned to a bomber squadron or fighter squadron, if his skills are the same?

[Capt. Harlock]

The one thing that is clear in my experience is that until about 8/42 (or later), there is pretty much no point on the map that a skilled Japanese player can't take.

Unless of course you're Nemo121, who is holding on to Sumatra as of April '42.[&o]

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

Not to hijack the aar, but does it matter if a pilot is assigned to a bomber squadron or fighter squadron, if his skills are the same?

No. But in practice when you are looking to scoop up the low skill fighter pilots (low in A2A) into a training squadron you want to avoid grabbing the bomber pilots who are already trained as bomber pilots and, 99% of the time, have low A2A skills.

The other pilots just get in your way and cause more clicks and eye strain.

[Canoerebel]

2/3/42 and 2/4/42
 
The vice continues to tighten around Australia; there are signs that could portend trouble in India; and everything is blissfully peaceful in and around Hawaii.

Australia:  A Mini-KB showed up well to the west of Perth and sank a picket AKL.  The cursor lists 5 CVL, a CV, CVE and CS with 49 fighters, 49 bombers, and 70 auxilliary aircraft.  I'm assuming that Brad doesn't know the whereabouts of the Allied carriers, that he has to assume that they could show up, and that, accordingly, he has a very powerful force here.  These carriers will straddle the sea lanes between India and Oz if they move any further south.  I have a train of reinforcement convoys on the way, though presently they are still many days to the west of the danger zone.  I will have to be careful - I've already rerouted my transports further south.  I'll probably divide them and try to use some picket ships to guard against wolves getting amongs the sheep.  This is a very serious matter.  The east coast, at the moment, is quiet.  Three OZ reinforcement convoys are between Tahiti and New Zealand, taking a southerly course to Melbourne.  Queen Elizabeth is at San Diego loading most of the men of the third and final 41st Division regiment that will make for Oz.

India:  I-162 sank an xAK off Trivrandrum.  Brad recently took a small base (port level one) on the south coast of Sumatra.  I wonder if he might be using this as a sub base.  He also landed 8th SNLF at Sabang, but the force is woefully short of what is needed to take the base.  The Japanese are also advancing in Burma, where the Allies have withdrawn but still have a long slog through the jungle before they reach the Allied MLR.  If Singapore falls soon - and it probably will - then Brad can cut off the Burma army if he moves quickly to invade the Chittagong area.  (Singapore survived a 1:1 attack on the 3rd, but forts dropped from two to one; I think at best the garrison can withstand one more attack).

Hawaii:  As noted above, all quiet here except for an occasional sub around Midway and the Line Islands.  In just a few weeks enough reinforcements will be on the ground to give the Allies some feeling of security here.  Then they can begin looking at reinforcing other bases.

DEI:  Dutch bombers hit an xAK east of Java (their third score of the game).  A small Japanese army tried a deliberate attack at Batavia, but got roughed up badly.  Brad will have to reinforce to take this base, which has a defensive garrison of 300+ AV.  IE, he doesn't get it on the cheap.

Allied Carriers:  The American carriers are set to arrive in Capetown over the next 11 days.  CV Indomitable will arrive in less than two weeks.  Then begins the guessing game.  Can I get a crack at a vulnerable Mini KB or is Brad using a far more powerful force to deal with that eventuality?  I'll try to feel things out.  I'll also bear in mind that any appearance by the Allied carriers in the Indian Ocean gives the Japanese Navy a green light that would last for weeks through most of the Pacific.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: crsutton
There is not much else you can do. If you opt for scen#2 vs an crack Japanese player then the key to autovictory prevention is to resist but never put yourself in a positon where you lose big chunks of ships or troops. If he can't not get to them, then I doubt Japan can win on territory alone. The one thing that is clear in my experience is that until about 8/42 (or later), there is pretty much no point on the map that a skilled Japanese player can't take. The key is to make him fight but not to place your hopes in a position where you could lose your carriers or a bunch of key troops. Subs, surface ships, auxilaries, merchies all can be risked and are somewhat expendable. Divisions and carriers should be protected like a Sicilian little sister.

This is not to say that a mistake should not be exploited but you have been there before and know what to do. [&o]

I'm not sure what it means to be "protected like a Sicilian little sister," but I think I get the idea.

Good insight about Scenario Two and a capable Japanese opponent. I agree with you that it's nearly impossible to stop the Japanese wherever their attention is concentrated. I've already given up some ground without a fight (Port Moresby) and am prepared to likewise surrender New Caledonia (about to happen), Fiji, and even New Zealand should that become necessary. Even if I sent my reinforcements to one or more of those bases, they wouldn't be enough (in early '42) to stop a full-scale Japanese attack. Were I to try, I would then be leaving even more vital bases exposed to attack.

I don't want to risk the loss of masses of soldiers, so essentially all reinforcements are going to India, Oz, and Hawaii. I don't think Q-Ball can vanquish any of those targets entirely, but if he does then I'll be busy counting points to see if auto-victory is about to occur.

Sometime in late '42 (I hope that your 8/42 comment is on target!) the Allies have enough ground troops to work with - and enough political points to buy restricted units - to go toe to toe with the enemy in a major land engagement, but not before then.

Well, the 8/42 point is where the Allied can put up an equal carrier fight so you can at least keep your opponent honest. One of my scen #2 games is in 1/43 and I still am having trouble matching the Japanese on the ground. And as you know the thought of Allied air superiorty in 1/43 is an AFB pipe dream. [;)]


The Sicilian little sister reference is a homage to "The Godfather" Rural Sicily is a very conservative society. It is changing now but young girls who have reached sexual maturity are closely protected by their family. No dating without an escort and never left alone with a man.

Back in my sailor days. I had a girlfriend in Spain. This was right after Franco died and Spain was still a very conservative society. The family was wonderful to me and she was quite lovely. However, we never went anywhere without her sister coming as an escort. It was actually kind of sweet. I kind of got to date two girls at once. No fooling around though....It just did not happen. I remember the night clubs. The girls were beautiful, friendly and liked Americans. And, at about ten PM, they all dissapeared. Nothing left in the club but guys dancing around with guys. Talk about a buzz kill [X(]

[Nemo121]

And as you know the thought of Allied air superiorty in 1/43 is an AFB pipe dream.

I'm not so sure.... Perhaps the Allies cannot have a reign of terror over all Japanese bases by January 1943 but there are sub-components which are achievable well before January 1943.
a) Prevention of IJAAF superiority over key Allied bases. This is, I think, achievable if you put your mind to it, are willing to accept having no air presence in many places ( just enough ambush activity to force the IJAAF to remain honest and continually escort bombers everywhere lest you run an ambush ).

b) Having air superiority for long periods of time may be unachievable but I think that one can have air superiority for a day or two over a given base much earlier. If you plan it right a day or two of superiority might be all you'd need to wreck that base and allow an invasion TF to unload or give your fleet the freedom of action it might need for further offensive action.

So, maybe total superiority over the whole front can't be achieved any earlier but maybe you don't actually need that in order to carry out spoiling attacks / prosecute your own minor offensives.