How to judge Japan's attack without the benefit of hindsight?

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: JWE

Wow, I haven't had this much fun reading a thread in ages. I've been chuckling so much, I got boogers on my upper lip [:D] So whaddaya think Moose? Was Fearless Leader a twitchy conspirator, or just clueless?

Final warning - that is sec level 5 info! Helicopters will be overhead shortly to explain it further!

[:D]

[vettim89]

<slaps side of head in disgust>


Its all on page 47. I forgot all about page 47. That and the Freemasons

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've been following this thread today with interest and especially appreciated two of Vettim's posts. He does a good job of laying out the absurdity of these beliefs.

Well said and I totally concur. As a Historian, some of the claims being made here are so out beyond the realm, I cannot believe people can still think like this.

There is no way Franklin Delano Roosevelt, former Assistant Secretary of the Navy, would have purposefully allowed a direct attack upon an American military base. PERIOD. The man loved the Navy and the Service. To think otherwise is a small step away from crazy.

[LoBaron]

ORIGINAL: JWE

Wow, I haven't had this much fun reading a thread in ages. I've been chuckling so much, I got boogers on my upper lip [:D] So whaddaya think Moose? Was Fearless Leader a twitchy conspirator, or just clueless?

I agree, high entertainment value.

@Phanatic:
The problem with most conspiracy theories is that they have to compete with alternative explanations, which have the unnerving ability to
be at least as plausible as conspiracy theory itself, without the need to rely on secondary/redundant/artificially created assumptions.

Okhams Razor applies to non-physical sciences too. [;)]


Anyway, I have come to really like this thread. After a couple of weeks theres always something new...

[xj900uk]

I still hold true that FDR & his administration never ever set out to deliberately provoke the Japanese into war, if anything the US didn't fully understand the Japanese mind-set and they hoped that their actions (re the scrap metal and then oil embargos) would make Japan back down and start behaving itself rather than actign as a big 'bully boy' (Stimpson's own words) in S E Asia.
Whilst the politicians hoped for a backdown they did not discount the possibility of there being a war in S E Asia/PI (a la Orange) which the US would find itself embroiled into - witness the amount of secret communication back & forth between MacArthur's staff and Washington from the middle of '41 onwards and the amount of 'aid'/munitions/training going in to the PI in order to try and bring them up to a war footing. MacArthur was even directly asked when he thought the PI would be ready - he said March/April and Washington told him that this was the date they considered a state of war might be declared between IJ and the US, which is why the training/rearmament was accelerated. Also all the new B17's that were just coming into service (seen as the new wonder 'ship killers') were immediately earmarked for service in the PI.
All this points toa buildup in the PI again following the guidelines of the Orange Plan, although the possibility of a sneak attack was not being discounted. But this all shows the thinking of the US planners & strategists that it would come in the PI and not Hawaii...
Back in the 30's, somebody from the War Dept looked at the possiblity of PH and the Hawaiian islands being attacked (have to see if I can find his name in one of my books back home) and made several long detailed reports for Washington to read. They were completely discounted on the grounds that PH was 'the most up-to-date and defended naval base in the world'

[Phanatikk]

to Vettim89,

Your contributions to this thread have been less than stellar...

I find it amusing that you question the possiblity of the President being "bloodthirsty" and yet your tagline is:
"Kill Japs, Kill more Japs" - Adm. William F. Halsey I suppose it's okay for Admirals but not Presidents?

IF HOSTILITIES CANNOT REPEAT NOT BE AVOIDED THE UNITED STATES
DESIRES THAT JAPAN COMMIT THE FIRST OVERT ACT

That was sent several times to all commands. What do you suppose that means? If every other piece of conspiracy theory lore is wrong except that message, which is indisputable, it means the POTUS desired that SOME American base or ship SOMEwhere be attacked first. Do you suppose the POTUS believed that the first Japanese overt act would be to drop leaflets somewhere saying "Yankee go Home!?" How many American deaths do you think the POTUS would have accepted for the first overt act he desired? How many resulting American deaths until he's a monster with an evil plan, as you say? Probably not 1. 100? Perhaps the crews of two U.S. cruisers he wanted to send to provoke the Japanese. Now we're getting close to 1000. We are halfway to Pearl.

[Action D from McCollum's Eight Action Plan - "Popup Cruises" FDR - "I just want them to keep popping up here and there and keep the Japs guessing. I don't mind losing one or two cruisers, but do not take a chance on losing five or six."] Does someone become a monster somewhere between two and five cruisers?

Other parts of the message advising necessary cautions should be taken is nonsensical. If the President orders you to take one on the chin, you take one on the chin.

I don't know what you think or know about a President's cabinet and administration, but don't you suppose that after being in office for 13 years, FDR wouldn't have men around him that supported him and his views? You must have a really rose-colored view of the world.

As for heroes... as they say, the winners write the history books. General Sherman (a la March to the Sea fame) is considered by many to be a hero. He even got a tank named after him. But to many, he was a real ba$tardo that followed the orders of a President to conduct a campaign of terror against a defenseless populace (which went against centuries of acceptable behavior during wartime. Read: Total War) by raping and pillaging, burning homes leaving thousands to die from exposure, and killing prior confederate soldiers, some invalids, just because they were on the other side, on his way to the beach.

How about Joe Rochefort? Do you consider him a hero? Per Stinnett, in a post-war assessment of the attack Rochefort said "It was a pretty cheap price to pay for unifying the country." Is that bloodthirsty? Cold hearted? Unifying the country. That sounds like what FDR wanted to do to get into the war. Golly gee.

Cheers!

[treespider]

ORIGINAL: Phanatik

to Vettim89,

Your contributions to this thread have been less than stellar...

I find it amusing that you question the possiblity of the President being "bloodthirsty" and yet your tagline is:
"Kill Japs, Kill more Japs" - Adm. William F. Halsey I suppose it's okay for Admirals but not Presidents?

IF HOSTILITIES CANNOT REPEAT NOT BE AVOIDED THE UNITED STATES
DESIRES THAT JAPAN COMMIT THE FIRST OVERT ACT

That was sent several times to all commands. What do you suppose that means? If every other piece of conspiracy theory lore is wrong except that message, which is indisputable, it means the POTUS desired that SOME American base or ship SOMEwhere be attacked first. Do you suppose the POTUS believed that the first Japanese overt act would be to drop leaflets somewhere saying "Yankee go Home!?" How many American deaths do you think the POTUS would have accepted for the first overt act he desired? How many resulting American deaths until he's a monster with an evil plan, as you say? Probably not 1. 100? Perhaps the crews of two U.S. cruisers he wanted to send to provoke the Japanese. Now we're getting close to 1000. We are halfway to Pearl.

So why then put the Pacific on a war footing at all? Orders were issued to that effect...Why not just leave the entire Pacific stood down?

[Action D from McCollum's Eight Action Plan - "Popup Cruises" FDR - "I just want them to keep popping up here and there and keep the Japs guessing. I don't mind losing one or two cruisers, but do not take a chance on losing five or six."] Does someone become a monster somewhere between two and five cruisers?

Other parts of the message advising necessary cautions should be taken is nonsensical. If the President orders you to take one on the chin, you take one on the chin.

I don't know what you think or know about a President's cabinet and administration, but don't you suppose that after being in office for 13 years, FDR wouldn't have men around him that supported him and his views? You must have a really rose-colored view of the world.

And working for the government...as I do...I can assure you that POTUS has not a clue what I am doing on a daily basis...and this is the 21st century...yet if I FUBAR a situation POTUS will get the blame....and conspiracy theory nut jobs will have a field day with it...

As for heroes... as they say, the winners write the history books. General Sherman (a la March to the Sea fame) is considered by many to be a hero. He even got a tank named after him. But to many, he was a real ba$tardo that followed the orders of a President to conduct a campaign of terror against a defenseless populace (which went against centuries of acceptable behavior during wartime. Read: Total War) by raping and pillaging, burning homes leaving thousands to die from exposure, and killing prior confederate soldiers, some invalids, just because they were on the other side, on his way to the beach.

How about Joe Rochefort? Do you consider him a hero? Per Stinnett, in a post-war assessment of the attack Rochefort said "It was a pretty cheap price to pay for unifying the country." Is that bloodthirsty? Cold hearted? Unifying the country. That sounds like what FDR wanted to do to get into the war. Golly gee.

Cheers!

Context...key phrase - "post-war assessment"

Considering the price that was paid during the war... the losses at PH were pretty cheap by comparison...so Rochefort in the 20-20 hindsight that 4 years of war provided was probably accurate in his "post-war assessment"...I'm sure in November and December 1941 no one could have predicted the losses at Tarawa, Pelilu, Iwo Jima or Okinawa...but then again hindsight is 20-20.

[Phanatikk]

to Tree:
The first overt act had to occur somewhere. Why have everything be surprised? Just one would do.

Again, we are not talking about the government. We are talking about the president's cabinet and administration. Surely the President knows what the SecNav is doing?

As to Rochefort, whose job is was to supply Kimmel with accurate information, we're not talking about hindsight. We are talking about the cost of getting us into the war, at what loss of life.

[treespider]

ORIGINAL: Phanatik

to Tree:
The first overt act had to occur somewhere. Why have everything be surprised? Just one would do.

Again, we are not talking about the government. We are talking about the president's cabinet and administration. Surely the President knows what the SecNav is doing?

And what did the SecNav do? Orders were issued putting the Pacific on a war footing...

As to Rochefort, whose job is was to supply Kimmel with accurate information, we're not talking about hindsight. We are talking about the cost of getting us into the war, at what loss of life.

Your reference to Rochefort was per Stinnet and it was in reference to a "post-war assessment"...

So is there a document somewhere from say November 1941 in which Rochefort is quoted as saying "What a small price to pay if Pearl harbor were attacked?" - No.

The quote is based on Rochfort's hindsight of what transpired over the 4 years following the Pearl Harbor attack which made the losses at Pearl pale by comparison.

---

Well enuff from me... can't believe I got sucked into this pig sty...you can believe what you want.

[Historiker]

ORIGINAL: JWE

ORIGINAL: Historiker

I mean je ne sais quoi is just an aftershave, yeah?

I guess you'll have to prepare yourself better for Tahiti, my friend [;)]

Ah, Torsten, my friend; you truly understand, don't you? I knew you would get it.

btw, it's not Tahiti. It is in French Polynesia, but it's in lles Marquises. Way far even from Taiohae, down around between Mohotani and Fatu Hiva.

There's some french left from school...
Doesn't matter where it is exactly - as long as there's a bed and a nice beach for me when I visit you [;)]

[LoBaron]

Just in case you don´t know it already, I´d love to point you to a place where you will probably feel all warm and cozy....

http://www.conspiracycafe.net/forum/

On the other hand who would continue the current debate then?

[Nikademus]

ORIGINAL: Thayne


Perhaps, given its character, it could not choose anything else. Yet, this simply iterates the quality of the Japanese character at the time - that it could not choose the better option.

To the Japanese, war seemed the "better" option because to submit in full to Washington's demands would have been tantamount to surrendering their sovereignty and future as a nation of stature. Right or wrong.....this is how they saw it. I'm only pointing this out because statements like "Why did they not choose the better option reflects a Western viewpoint. Grew perceived this gulf in understanding and tried to warn the State dept regarding it but ultimately was not heeded. The militarists were not chomping at the bit for war with the US and a compromise was sought, but delays and misunderstandings arroused suspicison that the US was simply playing for time while they built up their military forces and ultimately when no solid "agreement" was reached, the decision for war was taken. A similar level of distrust existed in the State dept as Japanese military activities seemed (to Hull and Stimpson) to bely the overture of agreement that was being preposed. Ultimately this was no spur of the moment decision and advance planning was required. A domino effect had ensued.

[JWE]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
I only mentioned the files in repsonse to your statement about a lack of new documents.

Ah, okay, I get it now. Oh no, wasn't saying there weren't new documents, just there were no 'recently unclassified' things that were not available to everybody. Keeps the peer review process robust and gives the reviewers the same access to source. It avoids the usual conspiracy claims of "I have secret documents ... that I found at a secret base in the Nevada desert." [;)]

The reviewers also looked at the so-called "new" stuff and found nothing new and have not been very kind to Mr Stinnett's process either. Some of the nicer things are like, gross misinterpretation, contradiction of plain wording, fabrication, blatant misconstruction, misrepresentation. Kinda reminds ya of Von Daniken, yeah?

[AW1Steve]

I have NAMES mr. chairman! NAMES! Oh, sorry , wrong thread....[8|]

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: Phanatik

to Tree:
The first overt act had to occur somewhere. Why have everything be surprised? Just one would do.

Again, we are not talking about the government. We are talking about the president's cabinet and administration. Surely the President knows what the SecNav is doing?

As to Rochefort, whose job is was to supply Kimmel with accurate information, we're not talking about hindsight. We are talking about the cost of getting us into the war, at what loss of life.

Everyone KNEW war was coming.

What failed was a lack of imagination that the Japanese could even DO something like what actually happened. How can one forget that the only successful CV Raid on a Harbor was Taranto in 1940? That was carried out with just a handful of planes. The creation of the Kido Butai was revolutionary. Read KAIGUN.

The problem with PH--just like 9/11--was not too little information but too MUCH. The clues were there (read bomb plot message) if you knew EXACTLY what you were looking for. No one knew or really guessed.

As for more of this bilge, if we wanted this to happen then why did Kimmel give Halsey the orders he did in taking Enterprise to sea to reinforce Wake?

[Phanatikk]

to Tree:
Being from Knoxville, you should have orange colored glasses, not rose colored ones. (Go Vols!)

The quote was a cheap price to pay to UNIFY the country. To unify the country to get us into the war, which speaks to intent on FDR's part, which is what this thread is sort of about.

To All With Differing Opinions, or at The Beach:
Look at it this way. If there were only one or two unusual things about the PH attack, then no big deal. Quirky things happen in war. But there is far too much about PH that seems unlikely or questionable that should cause doubt in a reasonable person. We're not talking black helicopters, or Bush bombed the Towers. It's telling that so many are so willing to simply believe what they are told to believe.

[Phanatikk]

Kimmel received orders to send the Enterprise to Wake. Same for the Lex.

[Grfin Zeppelin]

Lets see it the other way around. Why should Roosevelt have done this ? What did he gain that way he did not otherwise ? I mean if we would talk about a surprise attack on Guam one could indeed think " Hey they knew this and they let it happen to have the Japanese to fire the first shot" but Pearl Harbor ? With da whole pacific fleet around ? Oh the carriers where not in port so Roosevelt knew how important they where and was abolutely sure they wont be lost ?
There are indeed indicators for that conspiracy theroy but look what kind of mess followed pearl harbor.
Its always the same ya know, goverments suck at everything exept secret conspirations heh ?

[DuckofTindalos]

Yeah, these "theories" always hinge on the same impossible premises: that governments aren't massively incompetent and that people can keep secrets. They can not.

Either way, you guys hopefully realize that you can't reason with types like "Phanatik". If he's not engaged, he will eventually disappear back into his little hole, thinking he's won. Who cares about that anyway?

[Grfin Zeppelin]

A politician like Roosevelt would have been dumb beyond belief if he had allowed this to happen. One could only ponder what the americans had done with him if this goes public. Treason beyond belief I guess o.o