Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg

[mmarquo]

The pooch got screwed by the command modifier...
 
Do not forget Kharkov....

[Senno]

Kharkov. There's a nice convenient gap in the lines 3 hexes wide, conveniently enough towards Kharkov. And he doesn't seem dug in around Kharkov. So, I'm just not sure if it's a trap, or he's just not got the forces, or all of the above. What level of deception is he operating at? You could spend all day thinking through the iterations.

I flew a lot of recon. And tested the wind, listen for tank noises over the next rise. Don't seem to smell horses.... But, it seems an open invitation to drive to Kharkov. He's had forever to move the factories there. I'd have Kharkov, but I'd be well away from anywhere else. And people report that taking the factories doesn't seem to slow down the Soviets, anyway. Is Kharkov, even if it holds a tank factory currently a worthy goal?

I realize I can just check, but honestly, I think the game gives to much information there. Why do I get to know the exact state of his factories in Kharkov? I can imagine the glowing red is the industry being spotted by long range recon, they see the stoked furnaces belching smoke or something. It's hard for me to rationalize being able to open up the city and see this:

I guess I have great spies?[;)] TMI, to me.

I overthink probably. First Panzer is in great shape, with good MP's. I could head towards it. I think most people cross at Cherkassy and fan out from there. Where I am with First Panzer is horrible, I know that, for sure.

What I can do to fix the situation, I'm not sure. Not certain there is a "fix" yet, really.

[Senno]

ORIGINAL: Marquo

The pooch got screwed by the command modifier...

Do not forget Kharkov....

Partially, true.[:)]

As I acknowledge in my conclusion.


But, the command modifier it was 90% not 80%. SU's at the point of attack could have counter-balanced that back to the positive, allowing the attack to succeed. The units themselves held zero. And that's a guaranteed commitment, as well.

And the Soviets day of reckoning approaches draws nearer as I stare at well dug in Soviets.

[TulliusDetritus]

Senno, not only industry, manpower centers as well. If I remember correctly what Sabre said, by grabbing these places you might sort of hurt (how much?) the Soviet blizzard offensive [:)] So they are important objectives. A trap or not, that's another story [8D]

[Encircled]

I think you are only in real danger if your Panzers are very fatigued and have no supplies.

[PeeDeeAitch]

Heh. My approach isn't so much jiu jitsu as what I call the "twitching fingers" approach:
 
Long ago I had a friend with a playful cat.  He would have the cat on his lap and with his left hand twitch his fingers to mesmerize the cat, then reach around fast and tap the cat on the side of the head with his right hand.  The cat would over-react and the he would then tap the cat with his left hand.  For the cat it was great fun, for him it was classic misdirection.
 
Tanks can be both hands.  They can run around the enemy or bludgeon if need be.  They can line up to attack one place then run the opposite way (that was my Stalino drive - they "looked" ready to hit toward Tula, and so he had to defend there - then they drive off to the Don).  You only have to bludgeon once with tanks to let your enemy know you will do it again, and that is a fearful thing to contemplate on defense.  I do take what is given, but I do also try to get my opponent to give me what I want by threatening what he fears.
 
The twitching fingers, it works.

[Senno]

I thank the Luftwaffe for air cover as the units west of the Dnepr at Kiev fight off furious interdiction attacks by the Soviets. They launced quite a few, some units being hit multiple times as they advanced. Husbanding the luftwaffe pays off for me here.

First Panzer, being useless where they were, crosses back over the Dnepr, and heads down the west bank. While threatening Kharkov, and points north. The mp's were in the 40's, so the crossing was easy, but we didn't get that far east, really.

III Panzer lacks the mp's to cross, but threatens a souther pincher having broken down a size one fortification that was 1 = 1 with 2 units in it. Is he down to 0 = 0 units in some places now?

First Army is refuelled to the maximum extent by air.

[Senno]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

I think you are only in real danger if your Panzers are very fatigued and have no supplies.

At this point of the war, that might be true. I'm not certain though. Will see what the future brings.[:)]

ORIGINAL: PeeDeeAitch

Heh. My approach isn't so much jiu jitsu as what I call the "twitching fingers" approach:

The twitching fingers, it works.

Twitching fingers it is.[;)]

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

Senno, not only industry, manpower centers as well. If I remember correctly what Sabre said, by grabbing these places you might sort of hurt (how much?) the Soviet blizzard offensive [:)] So they are important objectives. A trap or not, that's another story [8D]

Start up the scary music. I guess we might see what evil plans he has.[:)]

And mud is ever so close. The Soviets time is coming.

[Senno]

Turn 14

AGS:

Southeast of the Dnepr Eleventh and Seventeenth Armies shake hands northwest of Krivoi Roi.

Heading for Dneprovstok and Zap town.

The Romanians hold down to the South, in a light screen, with forces consolidated heavier towards 11th Army.

It's not nearly as fun down here as AGN and AGC, lol.[;)]

[Senno]

Turn 15

AGN (sneak-preview)

Had to launch two rounds of deliberate attacks.

[Senno]

Turn 15

AGN (post-recon)

The recon picture doesn't show much to be alarmed about in the Leningrad area. Fortifications are low on my right flank. There does not seem to be a heavy commitment of troops in the area.

[Senno]

Turn 15

AGN:

Turn 15:

AGN:

After the last turns successful attacks. It seemed that enough force was present to take Leningrad direct.

Still surprised at the light defenses. This round, their were 2 units committed from reserve status, though. No SU's committed to the attack.

The far right hex is captured as well, on the way to the port at Osinovits, the fabled backdoor to Leningrad.

The units in the far right hex were not well fortified, and no SU's committed to the attack.

In honor of PDH, I name the offensive the "De-clawed cat"[;)] as the Lions of Leningrad fade with an outraged roar.

Until the blizzard, maybe. If he comes this way.

[Senno]

Turn 15

AGN Infantry:

The FBD is at Pushkin.

The are in decent shape overall. And will begin to move out, south.

I'm undecided if Second Army will take it's historical spot in the line, or just shuffle south, taking a spot in the line down in AGC.

The rail picture isn't great, I don't have any spurs connecting north/south. It's still a long way around from AGN down to AGC and AGS.

The automatic rail repair is doing their thing, willy nilly.

[Senno]

Turn 15

AGN:

L Corps/Second Army is also in the fight for Leningrad. So they are shown. Other than Fourth Panzer, these two screens were my commitment to AGN.

It's a few Infantry Divisions more than historical, I suppose.

[Sabre21]

Well 2 more turns to take NW Leningrad so keep pushing there.

[Senno]

AGN:

Turn 15

Fourth Panzer OOB:

I have really not used them heavily, since he withdrew to the Luga, and blocked off the potential right hook. So they remain very healthy and ready for commitment.

[Senno]

ORIGINAL: Sabre21

Well 2 more turns to take NW Leningrad so keep pushing there.

I will, Sabre. No stopping now, and I need those Finns desperately now.

My lines are at critical mass, now. He could end up in Riga, if I'm not careful.

Should be downhill the next 2 turns. He can't get any more forces in there, I don't think. Ports closed due to ZOC's now, isn't it?

/Digs out manual.

[Senno]

Turn 15:

Karenlian Army:

Unless Soviets shift heavier forces here, rolling down to linkup with Germans won't be extremely difficult as we face lightly dug in Sec forces.

We have no house rules for the Finns.

I've flown recon in the area, but I suppose some forces could be hidden, but I doubt it?

His internal rail net makes getting up there a bit easier, but that should change soon as I hope to cut the line.

[Senno]

To be brutally honest, I don't think Leningrad falling in my game means much at all. I was clear to Oleg when he challenged me that I wasn't a good player. And that if he wished to prove a point, he should play a tester. This was in Q-Ball's AAR thread, of course.

He didn't get a game lined up with BA, ComradeP, or any other testers. Instead deciding to play me. Since he called me out twice, I decided to go ahead and play him as a learning experience. But, I'm pretty certain my own play has confirmed that I'm not very good. I hope to get better, of course.

I guess "let's wait for the testers data" (paraphrasing myself here) was fightin' words, haha. Well, I did tease him a bit hard, I guess.[;)]

At least we are starting to see AAR's and get reports of the Germans status post-blizzard. I hope to reach Spring '42 at least in this game, to see if I melt away, or have an army left. I am well aware from the state of my own defenses that "melt away" might be the result, after the Soviets stomp on me.

And Leningrad's defenses.... Well...

[Q-Ball]

Nice job; Leningrad is yours. It's only a matter of time.

With only a Lvl-2 fort, you should be able to clear Ostinovets next turn. Make sure you have a Mobile unit, though, right on the Neva behind your infantry, so you have a unit with enough MPs to actually reach the hex after your Infantry clears it.

If you do that, all forces in that area should be isolated at the start of turn 17, giving you the last turn of clear to clean it all up, and enough time to get the Finns set-up along the Volkhov, which looks like his final defense line.

His fatal error was not building tall enough forts on those two hexes, and parking 3 strong units there.