Wrangling Loki - Mind_Messing (J) vs Lokasenna (A)

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

IMO, there is a small window from late June (CV Wasp arrives at Panama in mid-June) to about late Augusta or early Sept when the Allied can combine ALL Allied CVs into a "Death Star" that can do something vs a KB that is often down a pair of CVs as they go back to Japan for upgrades. Once the British CVs start to withdraw in second half of 42, this goes away until CV Essex arrives in early 43. The Allies need to land someplace that allows steady expansion under LBA at this time.

We're playing with +/- 60 days variability on reinforcements, which makes things difficult to calculate, but nevertheless, the Allies have near carrier parity with the Japanese (bar the Yorktown, which ran into the KB on Dec 10th, and the British ships trashed of Exmouth).

As for Lokasenna's need for expansion under LBA, all he has to do to take Ndeni is actually land some troops. Afterwards, he'll have to throw himself against the Gudadalcanal complex, or sortie for the Gilberts, both of which are firmly my turf.

ORIGINAL: rook749

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

IMO, there is a small window from late June (CV Wasp arrives at Panama in mid-June) to about late Augusta or early Sept when the Allied can combine ALL Allied CVs into a "Death Star" that can do something vs a KB that is often down a pair of CVs as they go back to Japan for upgrades. Once the British CVs start to withdraw in second half of 42, this goes away until CV Essex arrives in early 43. The Allies need to land someplace that allows steady expansion under LBA at this time.

I am in total agreement with this. Especially if you combine this with an effective training program, the arrival of the F4F-4s and the Avengers ---- you can meet and defeat the KB during this window. Don't neglect to carefully select your target and ensure proper scouting with air and submarine forces.

The KB is staying firmly in the shadows. I chanced letting the Shokaku and Zuikaku go for upgrades as I figured the radar was worth it, but I'll be holding off on the rest of the upgrades. I don't want to risk flight decks stuck in the shipyards when the Allies move for the sake of some 25mm guns.

[mind_messing]

July 15th to July 28th, 1942

Some interesting turns, despite no real action taking place.

North Pacific

Nothing stiring, besides a couple of Allied subs sailing around. I've some good ASW air assets up here, so they're not doing much.

Central Pacific

Much the same here, but I've been moving air assets about a great deal, seeing as the main theater is farther south.

I'm floating the idea of using the 4th Division (currently training back up to 55exp in Tokyo) to re-take Canton Island. It would require the help of the KB, as well as a great many amphibious ships. While it would be a shrewd psychologoical blow, as well as set back the Allied time-table, I'm not sure that the possible costs would really be worth it.

What does the peanut gallery think?

South-West Pacific

USN carriers sortie from Noumea in an effort to test the IJN's strike capability in the region. A task force around the heavy crusier Pensacola is used as bait for air strikes, but the brave IJN fliers break through and land two torpedo hits on her, forcing her to retire.

The following day, an handfull of IJN Nells and Zeros break through the CAP of the Allied carriers, targeting the Enterprise. While all their bombs miss, it evidently spooks the Allies, as they run back out of range.

The Guadalcanal complex now hosts a great many torpedo bombers, and as many fighters as can be spared from other theaters, in preparation for the Allies making their move on Ndeni.

The KB sortied, with the inital hope of bringing the Allies to battle within range of the Guadalcanal complex, but following the Allied withdrawal, they were sent to attempt to intercept Allied task forces (a mix of heavy and light crusier forces, as well as cargo ships) moving between Canton Island and Suva. The Japanese carriers were spotted before getting into position, so they'll withdraw to Truk and wait for the Allied jump into the Santa Cruz Islands.

There's a major Allied sub presence in the Solomons now, and the IJAAF are doing their best to keep the Allied subs underwater. Some PB's and subchasers are on the way to help out.

So far, my general impression is that neither of us is really willing to commit until we have the best possible advantage. We're moving

Austrailia

The withdrawal order is given for Darwin. More transports are en-route to move the bulk of the IJA forces out. Most air units have already flown to rear-area bases, and now it's the turn of the major ground units.

The Allies seem content to let me hold Darwin unmolested, so we'll leave a picket IJA regiment in Katherine, a SNLF to protect against air-drops in Fenton, and a IJA division in Darwin as a rear-guard ready to be withdrawn at the first sign of a serious Allied bid to recapture Darwin. We'll keep a hold of Broome for the present, as it provides a excellent anchor for our naval search in the region.

About half of the units used in Northern Austrailia will be sent elsewhere. The Central and South-West Pacific, for the main part. The remainder will stay in the DEI should they be needed.

Burma

The Chinese refugees still battle for control of Myitkyna, but they're not going to beat two prime IJA divisions, even without a Thai Division providing moral support from the sidelines.

The only offensive action has been a strike on the Allied airbase at Dacca, which damaged some Hudson's. Apart from that, Burma is a big Japanese training airbase.

China

With a tank division and even more heavy artillery en-route to Chungking, we're looking at another big attack for early August. A crack IJA Mixed Regiment is bought out for the South-West Pacific (a good mixed regiment, that is actually mixed, with AA and tanks), and there's a few support and engineer units that are ear-marked for purchase next.

[center]
The IJN bombers never managed to land any bombs or torpedos on the Allied carriers, but it is an excellent result considering the small size of the strikes.[/center]

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I'm floating the idea of using the 4th Division (currently training back up to 55exp in Tokyo) to re-take Canton Island. It would require the help of the KB, as well as a great many amphibious ships. While it would be a shrewd psychologoical blow, as well as set back the Allied time-table, I'm not sure that the possible costs would really be worth it.

What does the peanut gallery think?

Pretty far forward...you didn't really defend it to begin with...would you have to prep for 90 days for it? Might trigger a nice carrier engagement.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I'm floating the idea of using the 4th Division (currently training back up to 55exp in Tokyo) to re-take Canton Island. It would require the help of the KB, as well as a great many amphibious ships. While it would be a shrewd psychologoical blow, as well as set back the Allied time-table, I'm not sure that the possible costs would really be worth it.

What does the peanut gallery think?

Pretty far forward...you didn't really defend it to begin with...would you have to prep for 90 days for it? Might trigger a nice carrier engagement.

As far forward as it is for me, it's even further away from Lokasenna's bases. I've the Ellice Islands, as well as Howland and Baker Islands. They can't host strike aircraft, but they'll give plenty of naval search if needed.

90 days is more or less the time I'd need to get things prepared for it. I'd need to move my old BB's from Singapore, as well as get enough AK's assembled in Truk.

What I'm concerned about is what I get out of it. Canton Island isn't really worth risking big ship losses for, and if Lokasenna has done things properly (CD guns and some mines), I'll probably lose a couple of ships. It just seems a great deal of risk for little reward.

Then again, it might be a good way to force a carrier engagement away from the Allied bases in the Solomons. It does no harm to prepare it - it only will take two weeks to move the ships into position.

[Miller]

ORIGINAL: rook749

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

IMO, there is a small window from late June (CV Wasp arrives at Panama in mid-June) to about late Augusta or early Sept when the Allied can combine ALL Allied CVs into a "Death Star" that can do something vs a KB that is often down a pair of CVs as they go back to Japan for upgrades. Once the British CVs start to withdraw in second half of 42, this goes away until CV Essex arrives in early 43. The Allies need to land someplace that allows steady expansion under LBA at this time.

I am in total agreement with this. Especially if you combine this with an effective training program, the arrival of the F4F-4s and the Avengers ---- you can meet and defeat the KB during this window. Don't neglect to carefully select your target and ensure proper scouting with air and submarine forces.

The F4F-4 is still a pile of crap compared to the Zero (In the game not in real life) and the Avenger still carries the same 50% dud rate torpedo as the TBD.

[mind_messing]

So, theater by theater overview, seeing as Lokasenna's taking a couple of days off.

North Pacific

Looking nice and established up here. I wish I'd saved the time, effor and supplies spent in the Aleutians for the Kuriles, but every day is a school day. Despite my late start on getting things built up, we're looking good. Paramushiro-jima is a respectable festung, and the rest of the garrisoned bases will stand up to anything short of the most determined Allied attacks.

Shikuka and Toyohara, as well as Bihoro are being built up now, as we want a nice ring of second line airbases to add some depth for our defences up here.

[center][/center]

Central Pacific

No picture, not much to show. Most of the developed islands have as good a garrison as I can get, but if I can, I want some more assets on Miri. It's got a 30k limit and a decent local CD unit, and I'll build it to size 4. It will serve as a nice, indigestable chunk along with Taibutea to give the CentPac some back-bone.

I'll need to get some AA to the bigger airbases here. The Allies will need to suppress these islands, so anything to make them a little extra difficult will hopefully pay dividends in the long run.

South-West Pacific

Just as well I'm not holding my breath for the Allied invasion of Ndeni - I'd have suffocated by now.

The Guadalcanal complex is fairly strong. The Russel Islands are currently without a garrison, but a good Mixed Brigade is walking to the Chinese coast after winning a holiday trip there. Guadalcanal proper has it all, troops, AA, artillery and aircraft. The garrisons might get shuffled about, but there will be an IJA division on Lugna, and probably a IJA regiment backed up by a Naval Guard unit at Tassafaronga. Tulagi will get a proper garrison (currently a naval guard and a IJA Raiding Regiment) once we get some IJA units off the reinforcement que.

We're working on getting the port up on Tulagi - idealy it will serve as a forward rearmament and replenishment base for light surface combatants

Also note the Japanese dox-hex base at Lakatoro - the two US units on Aoba Island and the dot hex adjacent are the Americans playing whack-a-mole with some IJA paratroopers and a single IJN transport plane...

[center][/center]

Austrailia

I don't want to stay in Northern Oz, and Lokasenna either can't or won't take it from me. Suits my ends just fine, we'll leave a division and a regiment to discourage anything but a proper push while the rest gets distributed around the Empire. It's important to keep Darwin out of Allied hands, but with Broome and Port Moresby in Japanese hands, no supply will reach it anyways.

I'm still torn on anchoring the western flank of my Austrailia salient on Exmouth, just to keep even more distance between the Allies and Darwin. I'll get a division planning for it, and shelve it till the Allies make thier move for Ndeni. Once the Allied carriers show up off Eastern Oz, we move on Western Oz.

We're also keeping a close eye on Perth, just in case the Allies try to keep our eye focused on Eastern Oz while they land a blow on the Western Austrailian coast.

[center][/center]

Burma

No fighting, bar the occasional IJA air raid and the Chinese trying to take Mytikyina with no support or supply. The IJA and the British are sitting staring at each other across the river at Akyab. I'm debating a possible limited offensive in Eastern India using the troops freed from North Austrailia. There's a great many units deployed very far forward

A landing at Chittagong, or even Cox's Bazzar, combined with a determined IJA push to isolate Akyab might bring great rewards, trapping the British and Indian units as they try to march back up that dirt road. Then again, it could be a massive failure and cost me dearly for no real gain.

We'll recon, and see what way the wind is blowing. After all, it would require the KB's (or at least the MKB) presence and a great deal of preparation, so it does no harm to get the smaller wheels turning. It galls me to see thirty odd LCU's sitting in a coastal hex with only one open hex-side.

There's alot of merit in a operation here, especially with the Allied carriers deployed on the other side of the map.

[center][/center]

China

Not many Chinese flags here. Chungking, the three mountain holdouts and one base to the north is all that remains of the Republic of China. Chungking will be ours before 1943 for sure. The mountain bases may hold out a little longer, depending on how high forts turn out to be, but the worse case scenario we can bypass and isolate them, and work on reducing them over 1943 and onwards.

I'm in a real rush to free up the crack troops from China and Manchuria for use in Burma and elsewhere in the Empire: getting these elite troops away from fighting the abysmal Chinese troops and using them to bog down the Allied steamroller is a priority for me.

[center][/center]

[Amoral]

I really liked these theatre by theatre updates. It's nice to get an overall picture once in a while to frame things.

[mind_messing]

July 29th to August 7th, 1942

North Pacific

It's the Thousand Mile Snore up here. I've withdrawn all the IJN submarines from this area, seeing as it's obvious that NorPac is a sideshow at present.

The Allied sub presence in the Kuriles vanishes. No sure if it's due to my dedicated ASW air groups or they're being sent elsewhere, but it's a boon nonetheless.

With things quiet up here, most airgroups are training up the rookies I've filtered in to them.

Central Pacific

We've the infrastructure for an excellent defence here, but we're chronically short on troops to man the pillboxes and emplacements. All the 6k capacity atolls are at or near maximum capacity, but the 30k capacity bases are our real weakspot. Mili is fairly decently garrisoned, but Narau Island only has a naval guard, and if the Allies get a foothold on a 30k capacity island with a possible size 5 airbase, it will be a thorn in the side of our CentPac defence.

PP's for the next few days will be dedicated towards buying out a garrison unit for Milne Bay. More of those garrison units are in the reinforcement que, due to arrive within two months, and they'll be sent straight to the frontlines to get comfortable behind their barricades.

South-West Pacific

Both sides are fighting a rather reserved air war. The Allies sent the 4-engined beasts over Ndeni, and an Allied crusier force was spotted within four hexes or so of the island.

A host IJN aircraft sit on the tarmac at Lugna, ready to be the torpedo equipped fist of the Empire, while we're sending a small SCTF based around the Maya to sit off Guadalcanal to see if we get favourable odds for an surface engagement.

Austrailia

The first troops withdrawn from Darwin are about half-way to Soerabaja. No response from the Allies.

China

Another deliberate attack at Chungking, to moderate results. The IJA loses more troops overall, but in terms of destroyed squads only lose about a regiments worth. The Chinese suffer much worse, with some five units destroyed. Forts stay up at 2, so we've a bit of work to do yet.

Having the 1st Tank Division here seems to be helping!

Burma

Nothing much happening, and we're using the lull to do some more training!

[center]
IJN Crusier Maya, headed for Guadalcanal to act as a deterent for Allied shipping in the area.[/center]

[mind_messing]

The Situation

So, we're up to August 15th, and apart from some P-38 sweeps over Lugna, things across the board have been fairly quiet. The only real interesting development has been the Chinese remanants in the western mountains have started to slip away across northern Burma to India. I'm doing my best to prevent this, but the frontier is far too wide to place a secure enough net. We'll stop some, but likely most will get through.

However, despite this, the situation for Imperial Japan being excellent. With the conclusion of the Austrailian adventure freeing up several crack divisions, I'm thinking about making a bid towards capturing more and putting those crack troops to use.

There are several plans in the drafting stage, none of which I've really settled upon, and the broad strokes are as follows.

Operation Golden Pearl

The invasion of Sri Lanka:

Advantages: Removes a good naval base, shipyard and staging point from the Allies, as well as making naval operations in the Indian Ocean very difficult. Could lead to the destruction of a significant number of troops and the capture of a large stockpile of supplies.

Disadvantages: Little, if any Allied activity in this area. No big convoys sighted heading into Colombo, suggesting only a moderate build-up of supplies. Would require the KB to be tied up to support landing operations. Runs the risk of expending a great deal of fuel for very little gain. Firmly within range of Allied aircraft operating from the sub-contient.

Operation Hidden Dagger

Invasion of Bengal:

Advantages: Positions an IJA force behind a large number of British and Indian troops along the Burma frontier. Could lead to the capture of Calcutta and the oil, resources and industry in Bengal itself, as well as the entrapment of British, Indian and possible Chinese troops between Japanese Burma and a significant IJA force.

Disadvantages: Would require support from the KB, and despite significant British and Indian troop deployments along the Burma frontier, Calcutta and the surrounding region is likely to be heavily garrisoned. A heavy garrison in Calcutta would likely lead to a prolonged battle, allowing the British and Indian troops time to respond.

Operation Western Castle

Invasion of Western Austrailia

Advantages: Firmly secure the western side of Austrailia, as well as capture some industry and possibly destroy more Allied units. Close to the logistical base of the DEI.

Disadvantages: Lokasenna is doing this in another game, and he'll likely expect it based on previous comments I've made on the fourms as well as my move into Northern Austrailia. It could very easily be an invasion into a well-prepared defence.

Operation Eastern Castle

Counter-offensive in the Santa Cruz and SWPAC Area:

Advantages: Deal a strong psychological and material blow by blunting the building Allied offensive in the Santa Cruz area and general SWPAC area, leading to the destruction of large numbers of Allied units and the capture of developed frontline bases and setting back the Allied timetable. Could possibly force the commitment of the Allied carriers.

Disadvantages: Any operations would be conducted at the end of a long logistical chain, and it would require prolonged exposure of IJN ships to Allied LBA. The IJN would be stuck without a good shipyard, while the Allies would have Sydney right at hand.

---

On the whole, I'm inclined towards an operation on the western side of the map. The bulk of Allied assets have been deployed east of Melbourne, and it makes sense to attack where my opponent is weak.

Attempting the capture of Ceylon is the low-risk, low-reward move, but I'll need to step up recon flights to determine both risk and reward. If Ceylon is as defended as I suspect it is, landing a overwhelming force of crack Japanese troops, sanitizing the island and withdrawing should be well within the realm of possibility. At present, Ceylon is the option I'm favouring most.

Bengal and Calcutta is the high-risk, high-reward move, and it all comes down to a roll of the dice on capturing Calcutta. Based on older recon reports, Lokasenna has been diligent in garrisoning the city, so in all likelyhood, any operation in Bengal is doomed to never leave the planning stage. A landing elsewhere on the sub-contient is a possibility (Madras?) but with 1943 fast closing, a long-term commitment of Japanese assets is exactly what I don't want.

Western Austrailia seems to be a good option, but I'm wary. Lokasenna's making a bid for Western Oz against Bullwinkle, and he's likely going to be prepared should he find the shoe on the other foot, completely disregarding the impact my capture of Darwin has had on his planning.

I get the feeling that a counter-offensive in SWPAC would be playing into the Allies hands. Luganville is a formidable fortress, but with a landing, backed up by naval and air superiority, I'm confident I could wrestle it back from the Allies. While from a VP standpoint (both from the base itself and the troops on the island) and a strategic perspective (biggest frontline Allied base and it's capture would expose the Allied rear-areas re-taking Luganville would be very costly on the IJN, as I could easily expect a great number of ships exposed to Allied LBA, as well as the captial ship losses that would follow a likely carrier clash. Nevertheless, I feel that this operation, properly conducted, would by far be the most benificial to the Japanese war effort.

There is the 5th option: that of doing nothing. As this is a Scenario 1 game and the resources of Japan are not unlimited, I'm more than prepared to simply sit back, build by defences and feed my crack IJA troops from Austrailia into the pillboxes and bunkers of the DEI and Pacific and let the Allies fight them there.

What does the gallery think? Is a late 42/early 43 offensive unrealistic for a Scenario 1 game? I do get the feeling that I'd be attacking just for the sake of attacking.

Thoughts?

[Bullwinkle58]

My only thought from the other side of his Japan game is his capture of Darwin had zero effect on me or my prep for western Oz. He just sank North Carolina between Perth and Geraldton, but he has over half his navy invested, many LCUs ashore, including a lot of tanks and two prime IDs, and so far only has Geraldton and no supply generation. He's lost at least ten AKs (not xAKs, real AKs), and is facing about fifteen Allied subs with more on the way. I only have to get lucky once.

Western Oz is a bad move for Japan IMO, except as a stall. I was locked and cocked to hit Noumea/Suva with the forces engaged in Western Oz, so in that sense it's a positive. But he has to supply all his forces by sea through one port, and Perth is a pretty fearsome base for the Allies. He has the full KB off the coast, and while he does I'm hamstrung at sea, although I can hit Geraldton from three air bases, two inland. Lots of 4E there. But as soon as the KB leaves it's playtime. And, as I said, I only have to get lucky once with any of a lot of subs.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

My only thought from the other side of his Japan game is his capture of Darwin had zero effect on me or my prep for western Oz. He just sank North Carolina between Perth and Geraldton, but he has over half his navy invested, many LCUs ashore, including a lot of tanks and two prime IDs, and so far only has Geraldton and no supply generation. He's lost at least ten AKs (not xAKs, real AKs), and is facing about fifteen Allied subs with more on the way. I only have to get lucky once.

Western Oz is a bad move for Japan IMO, except as a stall. I was locked and cocked to hit Noumea/Suva with the forces engaged in Western Oz, so in that sense it's a positive. But he has to supply all his forces by sea through one port, and Perth is a pretty fearsome base for the Allies. He has the full KB off the coast, and while he does I'm hamstrung at sea, although I can hit Geraldton from three air bases, two inland. Lots of 4E there. But as soon as the KB leaves it's playtime. And, as I said, I only have to get lucky once with any of a lot of subs.

I'm leaning away from Western Oz as I consider more and more of the factors, and your testimony is only reinforcing that. While the ABDA stack from Darwin has retreated to Normanton, it is only a week or so away by rail from Western Oz, which gives me a impossibly tight timetable to capture Kalgoorlie or cut the rail line to the rest of Austrailia or elsewise the hoards of British and Dutch aviation support units turn up and ruin my day.

What are your views on the Santa Cruz option and any possible moves in India? The former is very much a pre-emptive strike to try to wrestle two key Allied bases before the Allied grinder starts rolling up the Solomons, while any moves on India would be focused on gaining VP's.

My real question is what can I do (if, indeed, doing nothing isn't the best option) with these crack troops to net VP's and harm the Allied war effort at the lowest possible cost in supply/fuel. It's not an easy question.

[mind_messing]

August 16th, 1942

The only real event is at Wake Island, where an Allied amphibious force managed to avoid the Betties on search (again!) to get right up close.

The day starts of well for Japan, with the Tennessee running over a mine before the bombardments start.

The Allied battleship force comes in for the nuclear bombardment, with the Warspite, Prince of Wales, New Mexico and Idaho all shelling the island. However, the bulk of fire is focused against the Wake CD guns and the infantry are untouched.

In the pre-amphibious stage, the light crusier Detroit runs over another mine.

The Allies start to swarm ashore, with the shells from the Arizona and Tennessee (evidently not severe damage from the mine to detach it!) backing them up. Throughout the amphibious phases, there's a bit of a gun duel between the Japanese CD guns and the Allied amphibious ships. The CD guns get a good hammering and there's only a half dozen hits on the Allied ships, none of them critical.

The Allied shock attack is extremely enlightening:

Ground combat at Wake Island (136,98)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 3039 troops, 36 guns, 43 vehicles, Assault Value = 112

Defending force 4415 troops, 52 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 124

Allied adjusted assault: 7

Japanese adjusted defense: 171

Allied assault odds: 1 to 24 (fort level 4)

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), disruption(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
45 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Allied ground losses:
635 casualties reported
Squads: 8 destroyed, 106 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 24 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 7 (1 destroyed, 6 disabled)

Assaulting units:
53rd (Sep) Infantry Regiment
Bobcats USN Naval Construction Battalion

Defending units:
Ichiki Det.
53rd Naval Guard Unit
Wake Coastal Gun Battalion
5th JAAF AF Bn

A single US Army regiment and some engineers suggests to me that this was an attempt to grab Wake Island on the cheap. I'm puzzled as to why the US Army is being sent to do this job and not the Marines, unless the Marines are going to be used elsewhere.

There's also no sign of the USN carriers. A single CVE (Long Island?) is spotted, but the USN fleet carriers are nowhere to be seen. There was no ground attack of the garrison by carrier aircraft.

I'm suspecting a lame-duck gambit here: a half-hearted attempt to take Wake Island exposing a Allied CVE and some battleships. When I sortie the KB, the USN dash in and strike while my dive and torpedo bombers waste their ordinance on the battleships. Kinda like Midway, but with battleships instead of a atoll.

Despite the heavy bombardment, Wake is in no danger of falling. While the disruption on the AF unit and CD guns is very high (76 and 94 respectively), the Naval Guard and Ichiki Detachment are touched. With the infantry intact and behind level 4 forts, we're sitting pretty.

If my hunch is right and it is Lokasenna trying to pull a Midway, then I can simply wait him out. The KB isn't needed to defend Wake, so it's going to remain at Truk and see how things develop. Meanwhile, a small SCTF is en-route from the Marshalls to see what it can scout out and by pure chance, a half-dozen submarines were transiting back to Truk from the Home Islands, all of which will be deployed to Wake.

Conclusions

1: I'm an idiot who can't set search arcs.
2: CD guns are key for drawing bombardment fire away from softer infantry units.
3: The Allied move on Wake is a ruse to draw my carriers out, where they'll be distracted by battleships and ambushed by the USN fleet carriers.


Thoughts from the peanut gallery?

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I'm leaning away from Western Oz as I consider more and more of the factors, and your testimony is only reinforcing that. While the ABDA stack from Darwin has retreated to Normanton, it is only a week or so away by rail from Western Oz, which gives me a impossibly tight timetable to capture Kalgoorlie or cut the rail line to the rest of Austrailia or elsewise the hoards of British and Dutch aviation support units turn up and ruin my day.

What are your views on the Santa Cruz option and any possible moves in India? The former is very much a pre-emptive strike to try to wrestle two key Allied bases before the Allied grinder starts rolling up the Solomons, while any moves on India would be focused on gaining VP's.

My real question is what can I do (if, indeed, doing nothing isn't the best option) with these crack troops to net VP's and harm the Allied war effort at the lowest possible cost in supply/fuel. It's not an easy question.

Santa Cruz is doable by you for sure, probably at low cost. Regularizes your lines. Some VPs. India is a whole different issue.

Rather than discuss targets I'd suggest (I'm going through this myself) you carefully consider your opponent. Every JFB comes to the day where the last expansionary attack is made and it's time to pull the covers over his head, grab his ankles, and hope time speeds up.

After the better part of a year's play and a lot of emails I see certain trends in Loka's play style. Remember he's playing Japan.

1. He is methodical and mathematical. He keeps notes. He keeps spreadsheets. He knows the OOB very, very well. Despite this he can turn around turns very quickly.

2. He makes few mistakes. Won't say he never does (he landed on a non-base hex this week due to mis-click), but depending on him to make them as a core strategy is a loser.

3. He always has multiple vectors working. In our game there is a huge battle in western Oz, but I have intel and air strikes that strongly suggest he's coming for Akyab. He is probing NE Oz. I have probably false intel he is prepping for Ceylon. I have good intel he has 70 ships at Para Jima and I sank a huge AO there yesterday. I read your entry below on Wake. Don't assume he's done, or that Wake is the real game.

4. Most important for you is what he does, and what he's said--he loves the offense and has never played a lot of defense in PBEM. Obviously that's better for me than you. [:)] But it suggests to me that you should forget expansion, largely forget controlling more dirt, and look for plane/ship attrition while strongly fortifying what you have, focusing on supplies, and not wasting same. Do your R&D; you're going to need the air force.

5. If you want one more big coup to make him pause, throw everything it takes to force Chungking out of the war. That will be a huge VP bag (and a huge supply expense for you), but it releases 50-70 of your major LCUs to move out of sight to their better defensive positions. I don't know what he's planning in Burma, Indo-China, etc. but I can guarantee that having 500,000 troops standing in front Of Chungking on June 1, 1943 is not your best move. In our game he is bombing, bombing, bombing, and bombarding every day. I still have Forts 7. He has told me he thinks attacking Chungking, at the loss rate that entails, is dumb. I have not disagreed with him, even as I look at the immense list of IDs and tank formations he has in the siege. I have no counter for them if they were to move into Burma. (We have no PP HR. and the road through the mountains is his.)

6. If you have any hope of auto-vic it's probably next summer, not in January. But you have to keep him honest in 1944 too. As he likes to say, you have to work the denominator. Attrit him. Mines. Commerce raids. CD. Subs. It's not sexy, but it's what buys time for you to build the 3rd gen air force you need to have any hope of surviving the strat bombing.

7. Of the three major models he's best at land and worst at naval. And he's very good at naval. Once he upgrades in Asia and gets good tanks he will slice you up with hexside moves, para drops, supply denial and amphib landing go-arounds. It almost seems sometimes like he can make the roads give him 50% more miles per day than I get. He thinks like a general. So, while you have some advantages at sea, try to use them. We're in the last week of September and I have two Fletcher-class DDs already. Many more are coming. In December/January he starts to get a flood of true amphibs. Expect him to take down easy islands right away. He likes carriers, but he isn't in love with them. He will do ops without them, as you saw at Wake.

Overall, play the man. I'm trying and kind of losing right now. You have a harder job than I do. We're in Scen 2 and I get stronger over time. You not so much.

[mind_messing]

This is excellent food for thought.

1. He is methodical and mathematical. He keeps notes. He keeps spreadsheets. He knows the OOB very, very well. Despite this he can turn around turns very quickly.

2. He makes few mistakes. Won't say he never does (he landed on a non-base hex this week due to mis-click), but depending on him to make them as a core strategy is a loser.

Fully agree on both counts. I can count the serious mistakes he's made in this game on one hand.

3. He always has multiple vectors working. In our game there is a huge battle in western Oz, but I have intel and air strikes that strongly suggest he's coming for Akyab. He is probing NE Oz. I have probably false intel he is prepping for Ceylon. I have good intel he has 70 ships at Para Jima and I sank a huge AO there yesterday. I read your entry below on Wake. Don't assume he's done, or that Wake is the real game.

This is what worries me the most. Unlike some Allied players that are content to pick a theater and grind through it, he's been all over the map. For all I know he's pulling a massive deception move and there's an offensive brewing on the other side of the map.

4. Most important for you is what he does, and what he's said--he loves the offense and has never played a lot of defense in PBEM. Obviously that's better for me than you. But it suggests to me that you should forget expansion, largely forget controlling more dirt, and look for plane/ship attrition while strongly fortifying what you have, focusing on supplies, and not wasting same. Do your R&D; you're going to need the air force.

Forgetting expansion makes sense. I've been toying with the idea of a late 1942 offensive as "one last hurrah!" before sitting back for the long defensive war as the Allies grind through to the Home Islands.

Looking at Luganville, it's 24 units, 49k men with 571 guns and some 1450 AFV's. My rule of thumb is that AV is between two or three times the number of guns, so that's around 1500 AV, but we'll call it 2k AV to be safe. The forces freed from Austrailia can beat it, and chances are my troops will be of better quality, but we'll be right in the mouth of the Allied lion. Let's not forget that Lokasenna's been on Luganville for a while: odds are he's not neglected to build forts either.

The prize is there: 24 units worth of VP's, plus 1100 base VP's from Luganville itself.

Interestingly, Luganville is quite exposed, despite it's apparent strength. There's a single size 3 airbase one hex away, but the Allies have nothing built up till Noumea, 10 hexes from Luganville. Easily in 4E range, but they'll be hard pressed to get fighters to bear over that distance. One of the few mistakes I think Lokasenna's made has been to not build up a chain of LBA bases.

Either way, if I want Luganville, I'd had better plan it out down to the last detail or simply scrub it. Based on your comments, I'm leaning towards the latter.

5. If you want one more big coup to make him pause, throw everything it takes to force Chungking out of the war. That will be a huge VP bag (and a huge supply expense for you), but it releases 50-70 of your major LCUs to move out of sight to their better defensive positions. I don't know what he's planning in Burma, Indo-China, etc. but I can guarantee that having 500,000 troops standing in front Of Chungking on June 1, 1943 is not your best move. In our game he is bombing, bombing, bombing, and bombarding every day. I still have Forts 7. He has told me he thinks attacking Chungking, at the loss rate that entails, is dumb. I have not disagreed with him, even as I look at the immense list of IDs and tank formations he has in the siege. I have no counter for them if they were to move into Burma. (We have no PP HR. and the road through the mountains is his.)

That's one box I've nearly got ticked off. Chungking is down to Forts 2, and the Chinese are in terminal decline with no supply. The end is near, with a bunch of Chinese units being wiped out with every attack.

Getting China closed up and the troops sent to Burma is a major priority for me, and well worth the supply.

6. If you have any hope of auto-vic it's probably next summer, not in January. But you have to keep him honest in 1944 too. As he likes to say, you have to work the denominator. Attrit him. Mines. Commerce raids. CD. Subs. It's not sexy, but it's what buys time for you to build the 3rd gen air force you need to have any hope of surviving the strat bombing.

As half-hearted as his Wake invasion was, it has gave me some hope. He's got a mildly damaged battleship and crusier for absolutely nothing in return. I look forward for when he has to tackle some of my bases that are in the middle of a LBA network in the Marshalls or Solomons.

R&D on later-war airframes like the Frank, Jack and George are well underway. The Allies will soon own the ocean, so I need to keep the air mine.

7. Of the three major models he's best at land and worst at naval. And he's very good at naval. Once he upgrades in Asia and gets good tanks he will slice you up with hexside moves, para drops, supply denial and amphib landing go-arounds. It almost seems sometimes like he can make the roads give him 50% more miles per day than I get. He thinks like a general. So, while you have some advantages at sea, try to use them. We're in the last week of September and I have two Fletcher-class DDs already. Many more are coming. In December/January he starts to get a flood of true amphibs. Expect him to take down easy islands right away. He likes carriers, but he isn't in love with them. He will do ops without them, as you saw at Wake.

I've seen Lokasenna's generalship first hand in the retreat from Darwin. Despite bombing and pursuing IJA troops using the dirt road, he still managed to escape. If that's how he can make LCU's dance on the retreat, I'm somewhat aprehensive of when he goes on the offensive in Burma. Having the IJA units from China here would be a massive boon.

Overall, play the man. I'm trying and kind of losing right now. You have a harder job than I do. We're in Scen 2 and I get stronger over time. You not so much.

It's always good to get a second point of data for comparisons. The mid-late war is new territory for me, and I'll learn, with sunk ships and shot down planes littering the way.

Thanks for the extensive input.

[Bullwinkle58]

Two follow-ups.

Luganville: be 100% certain he has forts. Probably 4 if not 5. That is fearsome in an invasion from xAKs after the bonus. You will have disruption. He won't. Fighters only matter if you use the KB. Would you? In there? It's a snake-pit. And even if you win you have a beat-up force that needs probably 100,000 supply to draw replacements and fortify. A VP not-lost is a VP gained.

Wake: He sure did get something from the attack--perfect intel of what's there. You also said he hurt the CD badly, and he has a metric of what he needs next time to get ashore. IOW, two old BBs. I wouldn't be surprised to see a second landing inside ten days. Wake is a very useful "on the way" base for the Allies. Fuel, AKE stash, pierside voyage repairs. And you can see to lot of interesting places once the USN B-24 Recon variant comes out in January 1943 or so. I know you can recon Saipan from Eniwetok with it.

[mind_messing]

August 17th to August 21st, 1942

Tense turns as the Allied fleet carriers are spotted.

North Pacific

Nothing happens here bar Bihoro reaching a size 8 airbase and the arrival of a big base force unit.

Central Pacific

I was partially right. Wake Island was a ruse, but to draw my carriers away from the battle, rather than towards it.

The Allied ships off Wake vanish, leaving their comrades on the island to surrender to a Japanese counter-attack. Two xAKL's are sent to drop some more supply off to the island to help recover replacements, and we'll move the Betties back in once the airstrip is repaired.

South-West Pacific

Allied carriers are spotted east of Luganville, along with some amphibious transports - possibly the long awaited move on Ndeni. The IJN is rushing every sub in the region to try to get some persicopes centered on the US fleet carriers, but so far we've only had torpedos launched at destroyers.

There's no solid intel on the number of carriers. What sub engagements we've had only spotted the escorts (but the North Carolina and a CLAA screams "carrier task force" to me), but from the naval search hits, we've at least two American carriers. More subs are en-route to try to get some hits on the Allied ships.

The KB is going to move to around Ocean and Narau Islands, to lie in wait. If the Americans make a move on Ndeni with just two carriers, I'll move the KB in to support the LBA flying from the Guadalcanal complex. As has been noted, Lokasenna loves working multiple angles, so there's a part of me wondering if he's showing a couple of carriers off Luganville while the rest go and support an operation somewhere else.

Elsewhere, B-17s plaster Milne Bay, closing it down and highlighting just how exposed a single base is. I'm sending engineers to start work on a dot hex two hexes away (4 hexes from Buna, with it's range 4 Air HQ) to add a bit of mutual support. It's another base to defend, but it's also another base the Allies have to shut down.

Behind the lines, I'm moving my dive and torpedo bomber groups into the rear-area bases. These units will be used if the Allies send ships within the 9 hex mark, so it helps to have them in-theater.

Australia

Calm and quiet. The withdrawal is mostly completed, and all that remains is a reigment, a division, and some air support.

I'll start looking into deploying the withdrawn troops shortly. Likely, they'll be sent to defend my bastions in the DEI and Sumatra, with some of the smaller units being sent to the Pacific or Burma.

Burma

The Allies try a massed 4E raid on Magwe again from 36000ft. They get a single oil hit for a few planes lost to ops.

The Allies will start getting transport planes in larger numbers in this theater, so I've started repositioning units to cover all the rear-area bases. The Thai units will make great anti-paratrooper units.

We pull one division back from the outskirts of Paoshan to act as the strategic reserve for this theater.

China

The 2nd Tank Division arrives, forms up, and is well on it's way to Chungking. Allied AV hovers about the 5.6k mark, while Japanese AV is quickly increasing. We'll wait for our AV to be pushing 9k and the 2nd Tank Division to arrive before we launch another attack.

[center]
Allied B-17s bombing Milne Bay. Used en masse and catching the Japanese with no CAP above the base, a single strike was enough to close Milne Bay.[/center]

[mind_messing]

August 22nd to August 28th, 1942

North Pacific

Nothing. Not a thing.

Central Pacific

Much the same here. 2 xAKL's offload supply at Wake, so that the defenders have plenty of supplies to recover replacements and disablements.

South-West Pacific

We take a severe drubbing as the Allies offload troops at the Torres Islands. In a rather inspired move, I throw some paratroopers at the island, hoping to catch Lokasenna off-guard and destroy the single construction regiment that he put ashore. Sadly, the IJA paratroopers didn't get the AV to take the island, and the landing of a US Army regiment removes the hope of giving him a pin-prick by destroying the construction regiment.

We get a severe drubbing in the air, as well. I unleash the IJN 2E bombers amassed at the Guadalcanal complex onto the Allied amphibious ships, and the result is very disapointing. We get a couple of torpedo hits on some Allied ships, but most torpedos are wasted on nimble APD's. Between the Allied LRCAP over Torres and the decision of some bombers to fly into a 200 fighter CAP over Luganville, we come off very badly in the air, and we'll take a few days respite to recover replacements, morale, and to let some new pilots cycle in.

The KB has been waiting in the wings east of Tabuitea, and I'm moving it into a position in the hope of a strike against the US carriers while they're busy covering the Torres landing force. If they get detected or the Allied carriers move off, they'll return to Truk - I won't fight the Allies on their turf, not over the Torres Islands.

I lose the Maya is a stupid surface action. I sent a small SCTF after the amphibs at Torres, but she runs smack into five or so Allied crusiers. Nevertheless, she does well, sinking one before the sheer weight of fire, but it's a net loss for me.

I need to re-evalutate my operations here. I don't want to have a Guadalcanal-esque campaign here.

Australia

The withdrawal is complete, bar the rearguard and a single division. The displaced troops are being entrenched into the DEI, and some may or may not be sent to Burma

Burma

Fairly quiet. The fate of 20 or so Chinese units is in the balance, depending on who moves out of the hex first. The IJA are too outnumbered to attack, but the Chinese don't have the supply to overwhelm the Japanese units.

Otherwise, the air units in this region are mostly standing down for training.

China

My patience breaks and I order another deliberate attack. Fairly good results, a great many casualties, but in terms of destroyed squads, we lose about a regiments worth. Chinese AV is down to about 5k now, so we'll build our AV back up as high as we can before the next attack, to maximize our raw AV advantage.

Still annoyed that there's no "+ leaders" bonus for Japan. The Chinese seem to keep getting it, but I've yet to see it, despite excellent leaders at the divisional level and above and CEA and the Army HQ's living the life in Chengtu.

[center]

One of many IJN bombers shot down attempting to get at the Allied amphibious ships. Hampered by bad weather and heavy Allied opposition, they had heavy losses for little to show for it.[/center]

[mind_messing]

August 29th, 1942

Now I see what "multiple angles" really means!

South-West Pacific

The USN carriers remain off off Torres Islands. My subs are closing in, and the KB is en-route for a confrontation at 8 hexes. Lokasenna's spotted one task force (4/5 DL) but the other is undetected. If he runs away, he needs to escape my sub screen. If he stays put, he'll have the full KB bearing down upon him.

I suspect he'll pull back, at which point I'll withdraw as well. I have no intention of moving into that nest of LBA that the region around Luganville has became.

DEI

This theater re-open with an Allied landing at Cocos Island. The Allied ships were spotted on the way in, and I must have missed them during the replay (I ran the turn when I really should have been sleeping!). I suspect I sighted part of the surface covering force departing Perth about a week ago, but I figured it was ships transfering from Oz to Ceylon.

Carelessness and wrong conclusions.

An Australian brigade, with some artillery, a RAF and an RN base force storm ashore, kicking the IJN AV out of the harbour and torching four search planes on the ground. A nusiance raid, in other words.

However, the bulk of the IJN is still split up between Singapore and Soereabaja, and the Mini-KB is making a sortie to prevent any further reinforcements from being landed. The bulk of our forces from Austrailia are currently resting on Java, and we've a division started preparing to retake the island and destroy the troops.

The IJN is moving some old battleships to start the bombardment proceedings, and some 1 point AMc's are en-route to clear out any mines the Allies may have left behind. As a precautionary measure, I'm sending a regiment and some engineers to Christmas Island, but I suspect this is part of a developing trend of the Allies hitting isolated bases on the fringes of the Japanese empire: Canton, Wake and now Cocos.

This is evidently a move to keep my attention elsewhere, but I'll destroy this Allied encroachment regardless. The important thing is that Cocos will be re-taken by local forces (ie, troops I've assigned to defend the Java/Sumatra area) rather than those destined for deployment elsewhere. It also helps that the vast bulk of my AK fleet is at hand in Soerabaja, though part will be moving to the Pacific to help operations there.

It's not critical, but if left to fester it could become a mild problem. I've not neglected the eastern half of the map, as there are several excellent air-bases on both Sumatra and Java, and there's a unbroken air search picket from Sabang to Broome in Austrailia. Though it doesn't have much range (mostly Jake's), it exists.

I'll be trying to re-take Cocos with a single IJA division before the start of 1943.

[center]
Austrailian troops landing at Cocos Island, with the smoke from the small Japanese patrol plane station rising above the island.[/center]

[mind_messing]

August 30th to October 6th, 1942

Quite some time has passed since the last update!

North Pacific

The only activity here has been an Allied probe down the Kamchatka coast. It was detected a comfortable distance out. Air units were moved into position and the Yamato's task force was sortied in case it was the precursor to a general offensive in this region, but it never materialized. The Allied ships disapeared and the air units returned to their training.

Central Pacific

Bar some Allied destroyers making a bombardment run on Wake Island, nothing much has been afoot here either. Engineers remain at work developing fortifications on the garrisoned atolls.

South-West Pacific

Combat in the air has been focused over Guadalcanal. Allied 4E bombers have conducted several night strikes with fairly good results, while P-38 sweeps have had a mixed reception: Japanese losses are usually heavier, but I'm more than happy to trade Oscars for P-38s over Japanese territory.

At sea, there was a stroke of fortune when a IJN submarine found the battleship Mississipi en-route to the West Coast. Already damaged by two torpedo hits, a brace more sent her to the bottom.

The only ground combat has been between IJA paratroopers and US engineers being flown in to dot hexes. The Allied cowboy builders have been evicted, and a search of nearby dot hexes not under Japanese control has begun to make sure the Allies aren't building bases on the cheap.

Austrailia

I've made the decision to completely evacaute Northern Austrailia, bar a small naval search station at Broome. The Allies haven't made a move for quite some time, and the Japanese units currently garrisoning the region would be far better off defending the fortified bases in the jungles of the Lower DEI than trying to hold a rearguard action on the open plains of Northern Austrailia.

DEI

Cocos Island is re-taken, with a IJA division storming ashore, backed up by the Mini-KB and a host of battleships. While disruption was heavy, outright losses were very low. While Lokasenna no doubt wanted to tie down my assets to retake the island, it does remove the potential for Cocos to act as a stepping stone for the Allies onto Sumatra or Java.

Burma

Small jungle skirmishes with the Chinese continue as the IJA does the best it can to stop the escape of Chinese units to Burma. About ten or so Chinese units have already escaped, and the fate of eight or so more Chinese units is still uncertain. Even with air support, it's proving hard to close down the frontier with Burma and maintain a suitable reserve in case the British make a move across the border.

In the air, a joint British and American sweep is mounted on Magwe in mid-September. The P-38 makes a first appearance in this theater, joined with Hurricanes in an attempt to clear the skies about the Magwe oil fields. The Ki-44 Tojo also makes it combat debut in this battle. The result is firmly in Japan's favour, with the Hurricanes taking heavy losses and the P-38s doing fairly limited damage, which prompts the Allies to turn back to the occasional ineffective bomber raid on Magwe.

China

Chungking remains in Chinese hands, but the end is fast approaching. After a series of sucessful deliberate attacks, the Chinese defence is crumbling. Forts have been knocked down to zero and the bulk of combat casualties are now Chinese. The raw AV of the defenders is around the 4k mark, while that of the Japanese units rests between 8-10k.

The goal of having Chungking cleared by the end of 1942 is looking possible, but the KMT mountain holdouts in Western China may mean that China isn't a closed theater till early 1943.

Nevertheless, units have been moving from China to theaters elsewhere. Several divisions, as well as numerous smaller brigade sized units have been bought out. The quality of these units isn't ideal, seeing as their TOE's lack heavy artillery and are infantry-heavy (what I term "ersatz-divisions") they were exceptionally cheap, allowing around four divisions and four brigades to be bought out for around 900 odd PP's.


[center]
The fighting at Chungking, raging for the better part of the year, is starting to draw to a close.[/center]

[mind_messing]

Building the Defence

1943 is approaching, and with it, the unstoppable Allied steamroller. Already the first of the Fletchers are dripping in, and soon they'll be joined by heavier ships, as well as more powerfull and numerous units.

Overall, my defensive preparations are in good shape. Reviewing them by theater:

North Pacific - Base construction is complete, and the frontline bases are all garrisoned sufficently to resist anything but an all out offensive. Forts are high and still climbing. No real reinforcements are needed, except for some aviation support for the Japanese bases on Sahkilin.

Central Pacific - The defences of the Marshalls are complete, giving us a solid air defence network to defend the region and counter-attack any Allied moves into this region. The Gilberts are somewhat weaker, but Tabituea and Tarawa should provide a excellent roadbump to any Allied move in the region. The only real need for reinforcements here is additional garrison troops for Tarawa and Mili, though additional troops on Ponope and Kusaie Islands would be welcomed.

By about May 1943, I plan to start diverting any reinforcements to the Marianas, in order to have a sizable force to defend these islands once they become threatened by the Allied advance. Forts are already around level 5 or 6 on most of the bases, so it is just a case of getting the infantry into the bunkers. Already, AA and coastal defence guns are in place, and more will be sent as it arrives.

South-West Pacific - The frontline bases are all complete, and the second line of bases are being developed. Reinforcements will be needed to defend the second line of defence, but won't really be nessissary until the Allied advance develops. Truk will become a depot for units to be sent to garrison duty as the direction of the Allied offensive becomes apparent.

Once the second line of defences around Hollandia and on New Britain have been developed, engineering work will focus on the area around Babeldoab, so as to ensure that the southern flank of the Marianas is well developed. In order for this to be the case, the Sorong region will also need garrison troops and aviation support. The present plan is for aviation support freed from China to be deployed to this region some time in 1943.

DEI - No real reinforcement is needed here, as this region will be defended by troops freshly withdrawn from Austrailia. Additional aviation support and AA will be sent over the next six months, but there is no real need for more combat troops. The same can be said for Java.

The exception to this is Sumatra, which is the first priority at present in terms of reinforcements. Sumatran bases, especially in the north and south of the region, are well developed, but there's a lack of combat troops to defend them. This is being solved by the deployment of the "ersatz-divisions" fresh from China to Sumatra, which should make any Allied bid to get a foothold on this key Japanese possession exceptionally difficult.

Burma - Burma has AA and aviation support in abundance, and will recive nearly all of the units freed up once China falls. As such, there should be no demand for reinforcements in Burma following the fall of China.

China - I've the bulk of the Manchurian garrison and artillery here. What more could I need?





Anyone have any thoughts or inputs? 1943 is new territory for me in WitP:AE, and I'd love some views from those that have seen the Allied crushing machine in action!