Ukraine 2014

[NakedWeasel]

Antalya

Thanks for this. This is exactly the same area where I have the Bush CSG operating for Baloogan's scenario. Well within range of Crimea.

[NakedWeasel]

ORIGINAL: Sardaukar

I wonder if she still has X-47B that was tested on her....

I believe the X-47's are all back home at Patuxent River NAS. They weren't really more than testbeds, anyway. I would like to see the production version in massive amounts. A Nimitz-class carrier could carry more than 100 UCAVs.

[mx1]

In addition to F-16s already sent to Poland, NATO is deploying AWACS planes to Poland and Romania.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/ar ... 5667ca7360

[guanotwozero]

Now AWACS are being deployed to Poland and Romania.

BBC report

Edit==

LOL! Beaten to it while I prepared post!

[guanotwozero]

As the Bush is positioned off southern Turkey and so has a major landmass between it and Crimea, is that an effective measure against Bastion/P-800 missiles?

[SaneStatistician]

Old news now (ht_tp://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/08/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html):

...
Secretary of State John Kerry phoned Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Saturday and issued a diplomatic ultimatum, according to a senior U.S. administration official.

"He made clear that continued military escalation and provocation in Crimea or elsewhere in Ukraine, along with steps to annex Crimea to Russia would close any available space for diplomacy, and he urged utmost restraint," the official said.

Kerry said the United States is ready to work with allies to facilitate a Ukraine-Russia dialogue, the official said.
...

Meanwhile, preparations for the Crimean referendum are in full swing...

[NakedWeasel]

Actually, it's a question of "range" in this case. The P-800s effective range doesn't even allow them to hit the northern coast of Turkey, let alone it's southern coast line. The CSG is far, far beyond P-800 range.
The biggest (most realistic) threat to the Bush CSG that I can see, would have to be Russian subs in the Med- (number and type completely unknown to me at this time.) or, (much less likely) perhaps a Backfire strike coming out of Syria. In order to pull that off, they'd have to launch from Sochi, do an end-run all the way around Georgia's northern border, around Azerbaijan, and overfly Iran, and then Iraq, just to get into Syria. As Iran probably wouldn't allow use of it airspace, and Iraq obviously wouldn't allow it either, Id say it's a sure bet that Russian Backfires would get shot out of the sky long before landing in Syria. I'd probably take that option off the table completely.

It's a lot of trouble just to start a small nuclear holocaust. [&o]

[NakedWeasel]

It's come to my attention that the Kuznetsov "carrier" group might be in the Eastern Med. Can anyone confirm?

[guanotwozero]

I'm presuming the Bush will have a significant escort, including ASW capability. While ASW is never watertight, the shape of Antalya Basin limits the possible approaches. It looks like Antalya is out of range of Syrian-based SSMs too, which would probably have to overfly Cyprus to even get near. So it seems a good location.

I think it's very unlikely there will be any sort of NATO-Russia spark, but even if it did happen I reckon nukes are well out of the equation as the only result is everyone loses badly.

More likely, if Crimean annexation goes the whole way, the embargoes against Russia may include denial of passage through Turkish waters, bottling up the Black Sea. If so, a flat-top would useful to assist that as well as reassure Turkey.

[mx1]

ORIGINAL: NakedWeasel

It's come to my attention that the Kuznetsov "carrier" group might be in the Eastern Med. Can anyone confirm?

Docked at Limassol, Cyprus on Feb 28th for resupply.

http://famagusta-gazette.com/russian-ai ... 487-69.htm

Left port on March 3rd to "continue its mission in Mediterranean"

http://itar-tass.com/spb-news/1017398

[guanotwozero]

Mind you, according to some, the Kuznetsov may be more of a liability than an asset.

[NakedWeasel]

Yeah, that's what I saw. Wow, well that complicates things a bit, don't it? I'm trying to find out what her total group's OOB might be. From what I've seen, it's five to six amphibs and support ships, a Udaloy, and possibly the Neustrashimyy and Pyotr Velikiy?

It all sounds fairly anemic, thus far. Kuznetsov is apparently overdue, and in bad need of overhaul and refit. She's heavily rusted, and operating with only a handful of Su-33s. The Pyotr Velikiy's condition, (and general presence) is unknown/unconfirmed. The single Neustrashimyy and a Udaloy isn't much of an escort if that's all left.

I need you guys to put some feelers out so I can add this to the scenario...

[NakedWeasel]

"The naval group includes the heavy aircraft carrying cruiser Soviet Union Fleet Admiral Kuznetsov, the large anti-submarine ship Admiral Levchenko, the large assault ship Olenegorsky Gornyak, as well as support vessels such as the rescue towboat Nikolai Chiker and the tankers Sergei Osipov and Kama," the Northern Fleet's spokesman, Captain 1st Rank Vadim Serga, told Interfax-AVN on Tuesday.

http://rbth.com/news/2013/12/17/aircraf ... 32653.html

Hmm so of the five escorts, one is apparently a tug boat??? Why deploy something that's just barely operational? No wonder they don't widely advertise these deployment ops, they're obviously embarrassed.

It seems the Pyotr Veliky is not a part of the Kuznetsov group at this time, and is scheduled to leave the Med for operations in the Indian Ocean. As of three days ago: (the Pyotr Veliky) is on its way to participate in a large scale Navy drill in the Indian Ocean. The cruiser has made a visit to the Syrian port of Tartus.

[guanotwozero]

It's flag-flying rather than meaningful operational deployment. It only works until there's an actual crisis where the capabilities might be needed. Then, probably the best action is to run for a safe harbour.

While Latakia is the nearest, if hostilities actually kicked off I don't think it would be safe there, as Syria may find it hard to stay neutral. Indeed the balance of the civil war there may change as Russia would have no practical means to supply them, and NATO members may reconsider intervention to help the moderate rebels.

As it would be a long way home past many NATO members, I wouldn't fancy the group's chances.

[NakedWeasel]

ORIGINAL: guanotwozero

As it would be a long way home past many NATO members, I wouldn't fancy the group's chances.

Indeed, certainly not! She would become a submarine in short order. [:D]

I think their safest bet, would be to surrender her, or put off any open hostilities with NATO, because I think they'd lose their only carrier very quickly. Even with the Pyotr Velikiy, a Udaloy, and a Neustrashimyy as escort.

[NakedWeasel]

Apparently, their "small naval base" is in Tartus. It must indeed be very small, I see nothing military at all in that port from Google Earth.

Scratch that. I can actually make out about a dozen patrol boats and FAC's in the harbor.

[RoryAndersonCDT]

80 trucks are moving to Northern Crimea and 85 - to Simferopol.
http://www.unian.net/politics/894920-80 ... sentr.html

[NakedWeasel]

So, can anyone guess at the Russian sub threat in the Med?

[guanotwozero]

For the Kuznetsov group, it's best chance would be to shelter in a neutral harbour, but nowadays Russia has a lack of friends in the Mediterranean who'd agree to it with hostilities looming. Syria, sure, but it will struggle to stay neutral. One other option may be Montenegro, parked alongside the luxury yachts in Bar harbour. It would suit NATO well to have it bottled up there, unable to do anything, rather than a wildcard elsewhere. It wouldn't exactly help Montenegro's nascent tourist industry, but such things stop operating in wartime anyway.

Back to actual events, it looks like Russia is aiming for a complete clampdown prior to the referendum, so as to make sure the result goes the "right" way without any pesky accountability. That attention would mostly be on Simfi and the border with the rest of Ukraine, as that's where journalists and observers would mainly want to cover/transit. This is what makes me think Putin's going to take it the whole way to annexation, with its dangerous consequences. It's like a train wreck in slow motion.

I really hope I'm wrong. [:(]

[NakedWeasel]

It seems like a really desperate, extremely risky course of action for Russia. If they force the issue, and open hostilities ensue, they'll lose badly. The question will be, how badly to beat them? How far can they be pushed back, while allowing them to "save face", without going all the way to nuclear exchange?