A Glorious Way to Die: John 3rd vs. NY59Giants BTS: Lite

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Screw it. I totally AGREE with your thinking Sangeli. Consider a major reshuffling in order next turn.

Heh I think it was one of the better trains of thought I've had recently. Glad tyou agree.

Anyway, at this point its hardly even noticeable to change plans. That's the beauty of the first 4 months of the war for Japan: you can be very flexible with landings as preparation doesn't really matter. I think every invasion for the IJN in this period should have a floating reserve to take advantage of this.

What do you have planned for after the landings? Surely you aren't just going to sit and base build.


EDIT: Seems I need to look at maps more before I post. Nothing in Hawaii is more than 5 hexes from PH. Everything is within fighter range but at least 5 hexes is outside of TBD torpedo range. Either way, Hilo and Kona are still better options since you can keep the KB out of range of PH fighters and still cover the landing with LRCAP easily enough.

[John 3rd]

Just got the turn from Michael. Doubt is I will get it done this evening but will try.

This is what he sent...

John,

Ok, lets see if you have better luck this time around.

ENJOY!!
Michael

...and my rejoinder...

Banzai BABY!

This is why I SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO wanted those two CVs and CVL!

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Screw it. I totally AGREE with your thinking Sangeli. Consider a major reshuffling in order next turn.

Heh I think it was one of the better trains of thought I've had recently. Glad tyou agree.

Anyway, at this point its hardly even noticeable to change plans. That's the beauty of the first 4 months of the war for Japan: you can be very flexible with landings as preparation doesn't really matter. I think every invasion for the IJN in this period should have a floating reserve to take advantage of this.

What do you have planned for after the landings? Surely you aren't just going to sit and base build.


EDIT: Seems I need to look at maps more before I post. Nothing in Hawaii is more than 5 hexes from PH. Everything is within fighter range but at least 5 hexes is outside of TBD torpedo range. Either way, Hilo and Kona are still better options since you can keep the KB out of range of PH fighters and still cover the landing with LRCAP easily enough.

It is EXCELLENT thinking.

After I read it, I did pull up the game and count ranges but didn't want to rain on your impressive parade.

I shall be able to LRCAP Hilo/Kona from the south without issue. Lihue will be another story and this is why I am laying a much thicker minefield there.

Follow-On?

Lahaina: Still have another ID sitting at Christmas!

Will see how the initial fight goes and then strike there when the iron is hot. Paras will make it an immediate Shock Attack.

[John 3rd]

Got the turn and am running it.

It is D-Day!

Predictions:
1. He'll have had two days to crank up some mines.
2. SS in every hex for the landing sites.
3. He'll throw a strong STF at ONE of the Landing Forces. We'll see if my ML SS catch anything.

Thoughts:
1. What does he have for dangerous aircraft at PH? I'll bet very little. He always uses that F4F group to reinforce his CV Air. The SBDs might still be there. We'll see.
2. I'll bet there isn't too much in the way of warships in the harbor. He'll have pulled the CAs and CL:s to aid his CV TF.

Let us find out team.

[John 3rd]

Combat Report
February 12, 1942
Hawaii

We are ashore folks! All three landings go in with minimal disruption or activity by the enemy. Didn't find a mine ANYWHERE and, sure enough, Michael choose to contest the Lihue Landing.

Lihue
2 BB, 2 CA, 2 CL, and 8 DD vs. CLs Anchorage, Honolulu, Phoenix and 6 DD. A successful American TT strike sinks DD Arare in return for sinking CL Anchorage and moderate damage to CL Phoenix and 2 DDs.

All three landings are flawless. Will take the bases without a doubt tomorrow.

Moves:
1. KB moves into the NE of PH to block any withdrawals and prevent any resupply.
2. Pound three American SS at the landing sites.
3. Separate out about 30 ships that are already unloaded. They head for Christmas to lift the 2nd ID so it might join in the Lahaina Assault.
4. Move the CVEs and CVLs slightly so they don't become easy SS targets.

Here is the surface fight:

[John 3rd]

Here is a screenshot of what things look like at the end of the first day:

[John 3rd]

Now that the assault is in full bloom, the question goes to Michael's response. I KNOW this operation has taken him completely by surprise. He said as much over the phone. I have been so adamant about NEVER trying this again that cannot believe it. He also slipped that NOTHING has gotten through to PH since the war started. That is HUGE. A real chance that PH might already be somewhat low on supply.

What will Michael do? Choices:

1. Concentrate and force a major CV battle within a month (he has to move his Aussie Force and wait for Hornet to arrive).
2. Counter-land somewhere FAR away to make me pull the CVs back.

I see him doing #2. He is aggressive in his own way. I bet he makes a thrust northwards in the South Pacific to draw me away. This will take time to organize and prepare so I have that working for me. Figured this was a reality a month ago and already have sent three INF Regiments to Port Moresby, Lunga, and Rabaul. SNLF Assault Brigades hold Pago Pago, Savaii, and Canton. Will be getting several Naval Guard soon and they will reinforce the Marshalls.

The DEI has lots of firepower in it presently so I figure little danger there presently.

Eventually I will re-organize the CVs and create a secondary TF centered around Junyo--Hiyo and some CVLs. THEY will move south. Junyo is only 19 days from completion. Akagi will be repaired in about the same amount of time.

We'll see...

[Sangeli]

The earliest the Allies could mount a counter-landing is sometime in spring 42. And even then I'd be more concerned about the Allies reinforcing a key defensive positions than mounting a true counter-attack.

Personally I think the best thing you could do is send the KB out aggressively in the SoPac sometime in March/April to prempt or smash whatever the Allies are doing down there. But in order to do that you need to strengthen the siege of PH so that LBA and surface ships can keep it isolated. After disrupting Michael's plans, you can send the KB back to PH to really suppress the base and get ready for a landing. That should coincide nicely with your units reaching 100% prep I think. But you have to find a way to lay an effective siege on PH WITHOUT relying on CVs first...that may be a little more difficult. Need to find a way to let those air bases build up while taking out some of Michael's surface assets. That way you can sortie cruisers against any convoy that may try to sneak in.

[traskott]

Ufff, now all is about how much troops AND supplies the allied has put on PH before this battle...

[John 3rd]

February 14, 1942

Been away camping for the last two days and we plan to go out again this weekend Sat--Sun--Mon. Wet and soggy but fun!

OK. Eastern Storm has thundered ashore with little to no interference from American Forces. Other then that clash at Lihue there has been NO RESPONSE from the good ole US of A.

Lihue, Kona, and Hilo are now firmly in Japanese hands. A full two Division Landing (with Paras) shall take Lahaina in two days. Each base has between 25-40,000 supply unloaded and are in good shape. Now it becomes an engineering race. In one day these are the results:

Lihue AF 1 (12)
Kona AF 1 (06)
Hilo AF 1 (10)

I shuffle the troops and TF with lots of movement between ships and units. Unloaded ships head back for Christmas or Midway. Mines are now fully sown at all three locations and we'll see what Michael does.

That is the current...

[Lowpe]

Wow!

Bravo.[&o]

The question then becomes what do Allies do?

1. Max effort to break siege.

2. Attack elsewhere.

3. Duck and cover.

After Pearl falls:

Big effort to take it? Why? What does it get Michael.

Focus on striking the SRA/Burma/Solomons?

Will be fascinating to follow.

[John 3rd]

It is truly an interesting situation. If Pearl Harbor hasn't gotten any supplies since Dec 7th (and I believe that to be fact) then Michael is in serious trouble.

Once we take Lahaina, I have decided to truly initiate the pressure. The ENTIRE CV Fleet will unite and we shall do a series of MASSED Zero Sweeps. Quick count reveals roughly 500 ZEROS avaiable for this. Once the Aerial resistance has been pummeled then we begin a bombing campaign at high altitude and slowly drop our level...

The first SWEEP or two will be bloody but I figure we'll just wear him down. Biggest concern is his reinforcing PH by air transfer from his CVs.

When we gain a reasonable control of the air, the CVs will pull back for R&R and then we go RAIDING!

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
When we gain a reasonable control of the air, the CVs will pull back for R&R and then we go RAIDING!

Hmmmm...I wonder if raiding is a luxury you cannot afford right now. Michael knows you have committed to Hawaii and is likely making plans under the assumption the KB won't leave the CentPac any time soon. You may be able to foil whatever Michael is planning with a KB attack. For example, this would be the perfect time for Michael to decisively reinforce New Caledonia and the New Hebrides. Given enough time to set up defenses here, you may never get a chance to take this area even after PH comes. But if the KB came around in the nearish future...well that could break everything Michael has planned. The difficulty is determining where the Allies are going to focus defenses in the next few weeks. Because you certainly are better off raiding than sortieing against a phantom threat that won't materialize.

[John 3rd]

That is a good point.

I know that Michael doesn't have much in SOPAC. Remember--it is Feb 1942. Like the idea of a pull back and then strike to keep him off-balance but MUST have PH area strong enough to protect itself AND have enough strength to swing south.

Force Totals:
JAPAN: Have to rearrange the Carriers. Current Strength: 5 CV, 5 CVL, 2 CAV, and 3 CVE. I'll get Akagi back and Junyo in 3 weeks.

Specifics:
CV: Amagi (78), Hiryu/Soryu (69), Shokaku/Zuikaku (72) TOTAL: 360 Planes
CVL: Ryujo (39), Ryukaku (33), Zuiho--Shoho--Nisshin (30) TOTAL: 162 Planes
CAV: Tokachi/Kushiro (30) TOTAL: 60 Planes
CVE: Taiyo (27) and Ibuki/Hosho (18) TOTAL: 64 Planes
Damaged/New: Akagi (78) and Junyo (58) due out in 20 Days TOTAL: 136 Planes


ALLIES: Michael's current strength in the south is 2 CV, 1 Brit CV, 1 Brit CVL, and 4 CL/CAV and on the West Coast 2 CV, 1 CVL with another CV coming soon.
SOUTHERN TF
Enterprise, Lexington, a BRIT CV, Hermes, USS Charlotte/___________ (24 Planes), HMAS Melbourne/HMNZS Wellington (18 Planes).

CENPAC TF
Saratoga, Yorktown, and CVL King's Mountain with USS Hornet coming soon.



I've got a pretty good idea what I would do but let's have some fun with this. Here is a good question to armchair readers/commentators what would be a reasonable number of decks to leave in CENPAC and what would work going to SOPAC?

[Cap Mandrake]

The Allies don't need to directly challenge the carriers in the Hawaiian Is (If they have enough supply there)

They can load up P-40's and P-39's onto a carrier deck and fly them off from ferry range to Pearl. Ditto F4F's. This can be done with a single deck or even Long Island. Then they try to trade airframes as long as possible until the IJN has to send the carriers somewhere else. meanwhile they sortie out at night for naval bombardment raids on the Jap airfields and turn off everything that is cosnuming supply at Pearl.

[John 3rd]

Problem (for the Americans) is that I don't think there is very much IN Pearl Harbor. The damaged and repaired PH BBs should still be present. We're going to get a better idea pretty quick. I am assigning multiple recon missions to the target.

My force at Lihue was attacked by 3CL and 6DD. That is it. I am sure there is more but that is what he used to attack the closest landing force.

[HansBolter]

My BTS game is now in mid September '43 so its been a while since my opening turns.

In stock, the Americans get a CA deployed in Pearl as a reinforcement on turn 2, not so sure about BTS. It and any other not seriously damaged in the raid may have sailed for other waters by now.

I would expect his BBs are all pier side and in drydock. Any with light enough damage to be viable in a SAG would likely need three days time to get unhooked from the pier.

Depends on when he first reacted to the incoming force by ordering them away from the piers.

[John 3rd]

February 15, 1942

Little-to-Nothing occurs on the map.

Hawaii AFs:
Lihue AF 1 (25)
Kona AF 1 (12)
Hilo AF 1 (22)

Figure 4-5 days to get two of the AFs up to 2 and I can bring in Kates/Vals. Soon as we hit 3 then I'll bring in the bombers. Have decided to pull three Sentai of Oscars and the same number of Sally/Helen for the PH bombing campaign.

THINKING:
Have been doing BUNCHES of thinking. My belief is that Michael will do little to save Hawaii. It isn't his style. He'll wait until he has overwhelming strength and THEN show up. If this thinking is accurate, it cause a sea-shift in Japanese Planning. Current Thinking:

1. Eastern Storm Forces shall remain on-guard and support the Lahaina capture (2 Days) then combine all CVs for several massed Zero Sweeps. IF we can knockdown the American Fuighters, then I shall Port Strike PH with high Altitude Kate attacks for a couple of days. This will be costly but should help do the job. Should have the Army Air here within 10-14 days then they takeover the attack with Betty/Nells set for Naval Attack.

A total of FIVE ID, an Army HQ, Combined Fleet, and Southern Army will all unite to plan for the landing at Pearl. Target that date about April 1st. Might move that back a month pending on Michael's reactions.

2. We'll re-organize the KB and into the following:
KB-1 CARDIV1, CARDIV2, CARDIV5, 2 CVLs and 2 CAVs head for Singapore.
KB-2 Junyo, 2 CAV's, and 2 CVLs stay in Hawaiian waters.
KB-3 3 CVE will move to Singers.

3. Operational Planning
a. We have a number of ID prepping for Diego Garcia and the western shore of Australia. I think taking Western Australian is more of a threat to the Allied cause. We shall plan to do just that. Think I might be able to sucker Michael again. We couldn't connect with the Americans up in the Gulf of Alaska so maybe we can create a second opportunity. Last thing he might expect is for me to pull 2/3 of my CVs out for another operation. The CVEs will provide close CAP for the Invasion Force while KB hangs out to sea and will try to interpose between his forces and Perth.

He likes to use Adelaide in southern Aussieland. I am willing to bet that that is where Enterprise/Lexington and company are sitting. WE WANT THOSE SHIPS!

We'll target the Western Australian Operation for April 1st as well. Anybody for a suggestion for an Operation NAME for this?

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
He likes to use Adelaide in southern Aussieland. I am willing to bet that that is where Enterprise/Lexington and company are sitting. WE WANT THOSE SHIPS!

You are relying a lot on his past proclivities. Perhaps he will play outside the box so as to be unpredictable?

[John 3rd]

This is possible but I'm willing to bet he won't shift. Look at what ALMOST happened in Alaska. KNEW he would rise to the bait!