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[Mayhemizer_slith]

The Queens and TRANS in North Sea. I guess we have to sink them?

[AlbertN]

Has Japan thought to strip CVs of planes and use the pilots to arm up more bombers (even NAV2 have 2-3 tactical factors which can help a great deal vs the Chinese; and you'll need them anyway later on in the pacific).
You won't need the CVP for a long while anyhow unless China makes the mistake to come too close to the coasts.

[Centuur]

The Allies just made a big mistake.

I suggest a hit and run attack by the German fleet, assisted by the Flying boat, on the CW TRS, during a combined action, which Germany can also use to start moving the Luftwaffe to the east and to capture Warsaw.

By the way: what's the exact situation in the Northwestern USSR (especially Karelia and Leningrad are important to inspect).

The impulse after that: start the war with the USSR, since the Soviets are still totally out of position.

[Jagdtiger14]

I cant believe how weak the protection for those TRS looks! I would bring the whole kitchen sink.

In Karelia I think there was a lonely HQ...a remnant of their idea to demand the border...not sure if its been railed away this impulse.

Can you break the pact this impulse?

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Here is the situation:

German has only 1 organized ship in Kiel. Axis are going to sends FTR, NAV and Italian ATR to North Sea. MOT and MIL are still on those transporters.

Germany can't break pact this impulse, there is one INF in Warsaw and they all are in ZoC.

Germany will align Hungary to get 3 units to USSR border.

USSR has GAR in Murmansk, INF + INF HQ 6 hexes south of Murmansk and INF in Leningrad. 3 units (one of them is disorganized) in eastern Poland. INF and LND in Bessarabia, 3 hexes from Bulgarian border but it is not common border so it does not count?

Germany gets only 7:1 assault in Warsaw, that gives 30% chance to flip all units. I don't get better odds next impulse either. I think I will rail ARM and MTN (high value in garrison) to Poland 4-5 hexes away from border (closer is not possible) and reorganize them using HQ if Warsaw assault goes well. Poland has CAV in coastal city, that keep rest of German units in ZoC and 7:1 is best attack to that city too (assuming I take units away from Warsaw attack). If Warsaw attack fails, Germany can't break pact and USSR sends lots of troops to border I can always continue to Spain (with US entry cost if Vichy is collapsed).

Breaking pact does not look easy, specially if USSR sends bombers to German border. If they do that and Germany can break pact, there is no land units to protect planes and most of them can maybe overrun.

USSR defensive markers are worth of 6 points, German offensive markers are worth of 3 points (Oh yes, I forgot to move marker worth of 3 points from defense to offence).

[Mayhemizer_slith]

At the moment my plans for this impulse are:

Germany takes land action.

German FTR flies to North Sea box 2 (Italy takes naval or combined, brings ATR to box 2 and initiates combat) and German NAV intercepts to box 2.

Germany rails MTN from Rouen and ARM from Paris to Krakow. GAR from Aachen to Denmark Frederikshavn.

I do land moves and try to take Warsaw with 7:1 assault. If that goes well, I can reorganize MTN and ARM. Next impulse I move all possible units inside 3 hexes from USSR border.

If I counted right, my maximum garrison value after Axis impulse 2 is 24 (can't break pact unless USSR retreats). It looks like German can't break pact this turn... I need to rail all MTN/SS/ARM units to Poland and try to do it next turn.

AllenK, what do you think? Should we try to break pact or continue to Spain?

And what if USSR demands Finnish Borderlands? It would cost lots of US entry chits if I deny it, but they would get more garrison value compared to Germany. I still feel it would be a good idea to deny it, USSR can't win Finland with so few units even if they send all their bombers there. Actually I can block them so that they can't enter Finland and I can force peace. I guess they are not going to demand anything.

[Centuur]

If they demand the borderlands and you deny the claim, you can't decide to go into Spain anymore, if they manage to get a unit into Finland itself. So if the Soviets claim them, let them have it.

At this moment, you need 21 garrison points. I would suggest to look into rebasing air units into the border area too, since those also count towards the garrison count.

And yes, the air units in Bessarabia three hexes from Bulgaria count. This explains the 4 point the Soviets have, since no other units except a GAR are on the common border.

You can move the Bulgarians to the northeast, to make them count too. But with the Hungarians included and the units you rail towards the front, you need 16 points on your side. That's a lot. You need to be sure you get those points there after killing the Poles, before sending the MTN and ARM into Poland. If not: Spain is next, except if you are sure (and I mean 100% sure) at this stage that you can break the pact next turn.

The most dangerous thing which can happen to Germany now, is that you think you can break the pact next turn, and it turns out not to be the case. Than you are heading towards a Sitzkrieg in 1940 and that means the loss of the game...

[Jagdtiger14]

Just throwing a crazy idea out there...and it coincides with getting the CW out of Bordoux/Bayonne...why not go after both Spain AND breaking the pact. Don't forget you have the Italians too.

If you collapse Vichey, I don't need to remind you to have a unit (Italian) that can over-run the fleet.

I highly doubt the USSR will claim the Finnish borderlands. If they do, make them fight...that will give you more units to break the pact, plus they are not ready for that war anyway.

I'm not clear Centuur about what you are writing about in your first sentence above?

[Mayhemizer_slith]

In that mentioned 24 garrison points I counted Hungarian units and all planes I can send to Poland in two impulses.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

I think safe option is to do almost as I planned above (send MTN/ARM/SS) to Poland and most of the planes. I keep one Ftr in France to protect factories, stuka and one Ftr moves south in France to help attack vs ARM HQ. All INF/MIL moves towards CW and Spain. Let's see if Germany can break pact. If not, we take Spain and Gibraltar as planned.

Italy need NAV in West Med to intercept escaping ships if we decide to collapse Vichy. If we go to Spain I suggest only Germany moves to Spain and Italy keeps garrison units in France.

[AllenK]

The one thing I would caution against is trying to do a bit of both.

If we are heading east then I think we could do with leaving Vichy intact and building up saved BP's until USA enters the war. Should harvest enough for another O-chit or some more Synth oil. The key question is can the pact be broken at the latest by M/J 40 or is that dependent on USSR not redeploying units into the garrison zone. If the latter, I think we should abandon the idea and concentrate on the original plan of Spain/Gibraltar.

As Centuur says, the worst thing is to have an arms race at the border which Germany can't get on top of and we waste the 1940 campaigning weather. Since a 41 Spain, 42 Barbarossa is considered a viable Axis strategy, a 40 Spain, 41 Barb has to have a lot to recommend it.

If the pact can definitely be broken, then USSR it has to be. Eliminate the threat, or at least render it manageable for a considerable period of the game, as soon as possible.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Let's go for Spain but if USSR messes things up during this turn we can do Barbarossa.

Germany do as instructed above, 2 rail moves to Poland and one to Denmark. I need garrison anyway in USSR border and I can send INF to Spain.

[AllenK]

Okay but hold off on collapsing Vichy until we are sure the 40 Barb' is off the menu. There are those CW units to chase down and destroy, so they won't be available for Spain until rebuilt. It would be helpful if Wavell can be ground-struck in Bordeaux and not get a chance to move to Bayonne.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Yes, I kill them before we collapse Vichy. Roll well in North Sea seach [:)]

[AllenK]

Just want to check. Align Hungary and go with land action for Germany?

[AllenK]

With CW sending oil to China, think it will be worth the US entry chit (50% chance) to close the Burma Road?

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Yes to all [:D]

Hungarian units to Polish/USSR border.

[Klydon]

Just curious on the oil to China question.

Doesn't the 1939 pool feature some pretty harsh possible chit picks for US entry?

Would it not be better until the Jan/Feb 40 turn to shut the Burma road to reduce the possible US entry pain?

[Mayhemizer_slith]

It is Axis first impulse in J/F 1940.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Nice roll in North Sea. I think we should decrease Allied air to air factors to help bombers get trough. Maybe 2 points can be saved for later use to increase damage? Do as you see best. Sink some fully loaded transporters!