Argentina vs. USA: Aurorus (J) vs. Apbarog (A)

[Aurorus]

Another frustrating development on the 24th. The charmed life of the CA Houston continues. Having survived a thorough thrashing by Maya, which left her burning and listing, then dodging several torpedos from a submarine, having her escorts ward off another sub attack, and having a mini sub run aground trying to attack her at Norfolk Island, today she survived another 18 torpedos from Betties. Houston group had been at Norfold Island and Apbarog plotted them to move north to bombard Noumea. It appears that the TF commander grew indecisive at the last moment and failed to bombard during the PM phase, which left Houston grp exposed in the AM hours at Noumea. 44 Betties attacked; however, 12 were carrying bombs. All missed. Between the failure of the submarines to attack and sink merchants with 1 escort ship and the failure of 44 Betties to score even a single hit in fair weather, it was a frustrating day for the empire.

At times like these, I laugh when recalling the comments of those players who complain about how the game rates Japanese torpedo bombers, especially Nells and Betties, far too highly. In my last 2 attacks from the 72 Betties at Koumac, only 3 hits were scored (and these all on a BB), only 2 torpedos actually caused any damage, and 45 Betties failed to find their target. In the last Kate attack from KB on allied CAs, only 2 torpedo hits were scored (out of 144 Kate sorties). So, of my last 246 torpedo strike sorties, 5 have scored hits.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Noumea at 115,160

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 111 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 38 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 45
G4M1 Betty x 44

Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 6 damaged

Allied Ships
CA Houston
CL Achilles
DD Kortenaer
DD Evertsen
CL Perth

Aircraft Attacking:
23 x G4M1 Betty launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp
9 x G4M1 Betty launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp
12 x G4M1 Betty bombing from 14000 feet
Naval Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb

[Aurorus]

I re-read Apbarog's AAR againt Walker yesterday through the end of 1942. Walker moved aggressively into India, landing at Diamond Harbor, and had KB on station in the Indian Ocean for two months. In addition to holding Calcutta, Apbarog immediately began planning a counter-offensive in SoPac and began launching his counter-offensive in May-June 1942. Recent recon of the Burma-India border shows at least 4 U.S. unit there: a signficant U.S. commitment this early in the war. It seems to me that one of the unit may be a base-force fragment, possibly airlifted from the Phillipines? The others are certainly combat units, and I believe one unit is an armored regiment. Recent reconnaisance also shows a movement arrow on one of the U.S. units intending to cross the river-line into Burma.

I am convinced that Apbarog knows that my position in Burma is weak and that he intends to launch an offensive there: reversing his strategy from the game with Walker. Walker focused in the West, and Apbarog attacked in the east in May-June 1942. In this game, I have focused on the Pacific, and I believe that Apbarog intends to attack from the West. He seems to want to lead with U.S. units to avoid depleting the British and Indian force pools and will probably hold most of his British units in reserve. As I mentioned, I have only 3 infantry divisions in Burma at the moment, with the Imperial Guards still at Singapore awaiting transport. Most of my APs are in SoPac, and the Guards will not arrive in theater for 2 more weeks.

The 65th Brigade and 2 regiments are on Mindanao. These will take Malaybalay and then move on the small island bases in the Phillipines: Cebu, Bacolod, Tacloban, and Iloilu. The regiments will invade southern Luzon. and drive from Naga up to Manila. The 65th Brigade will land in northern Luzon, be reinforced by a division from Java and armored regiments from Manchuria; and then take Clark Field if Apbarog remains holed up at Bataan with only token garrisons at Manila and Clark.

I have enough PPs to buy out a division from Manchuria now. This division will not go to Luzon as originally intended. Instead, it will go to Burma, bringing my total force there to 5 infantry divisions of IJA (including the Imperial Guards), 3 divisions of Royal Thai Army (in varying states of disarray and disablement), 5 medium artillery battalions, 7 light artillery battalions and mortar companies, and 2 anti-tank gun units. I will try to purchase some additional anti-tank guns from either Manchuria or the 2 anti-tank gun units at Canton from the China Area Army. All upgrades for guns and tanks are turned off, but I will upgrade the Burma anti-tank gun units to the 37mm type 1 guns and then the 47mm guns.

I will not try to move up to the river, nor will I try to "hold a line", and move reserves up as needed, which is my normal defensive stance. Instead, the IJA will fight a fluid battle in and around the central plain of Burma where the 3rd air force can be deployed to maximum effect and the allied supply lines will be long, through rough terrain, and hampered by the monsoons, which begin in mid May.

[Bif1961]

You might want to lure him into a fight in Northern Burma jungles then land a Cox's Bazzire and take Chittagong and the rail line along south eastern India, above northern Burma trapping him in the jungle and out of supply. Then you can bomb and kill his US forces piecemeal.

[Aurorus]

ORIGINAL: Bif1961

You might want to lure him into a fight in Northern Burma jungles then land a Cox's Bazzire and take Chittagong and the rail line along south eastern India, above northern Burma trapping him in the jungle and out of supply. Then you can bomb and kill his US forces piecemeal.

Interesting. I was looking through the Manchurian garrison to decide what division to withdraw for Burma. I was looking at the heaviest divisions with thick ToEs. What you are suggesting would imply that I remove a lighter division, high experience, better suited for a possible large-scale amphibious assault at Chittagong or Cox's Bizarre. That fits better with what is available. In DBB, most of the heavier ToE divisions with the heavy infantry squads and the 10 and 15cm guns are lower experience. Also, I had wanted to use the 2 highest experience heavy divisions for Bataan, and these are prepped 100% for Bataan. I have 2 very good lighter ToE divisions with high experience.

It would be very bold of him to launch a Burma campaign in 1942 during Monsoon season before he will be able to achieve air superiority and have an enormous fleet of transport aircraft to keep his army in supply: especially given that he has lost a lot of supply generation in China already, and it appears that he will lose more soon. Those transports that he has available are needed to fly over the hump. Using them to support divisions moving through Burma will not please Chiang Kai Shek.

You are correct. I want to draw him into Burma, as far from supply as possible, and having some amphibious capabilities in the theater may provide opportunities in the future to cut the rail-line. At the moment, he has a strong position along the coast: some 30k troops. If he draws down that position, however... .

[Aurorus]

Here is the division that fits your plan Bif, the 9th infantry: high experience, light ToE, very few heavy devices that will be disabled on a landing, and with heavy infantry squads, which I want desperately in Burma in 1943, when the squads can upgrade to the 43 Hvy Infantry squads with enough anti-armor to disable a Stuart. I have set it for Chittagong, and it is packing for transport to Port Arthur and then Burma. I have set it to upgrade its anti-tank guns to the type 1 as well, eventually to receive the 47mm guns.

[Aurorus]

April 25th.

The phantom TF again avoids a submarine attack. Today the lone escort spotted the I-28 before she could attack.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Niue at 147,167

Japanese Ships
SS I-28

Allied Ships
xAK Wilhelmina
xAK Makua
xAK George Livanos
xAK Sonnavind
xAK Clan Mactavish
AM Tern

SS I-28 is sighted by escort

The AM Tern may be the finest ship in the U.S. navy: protecting 9 merchants from harm for days from 5 submarines shadowing the TF. 3 different subs have now engaged or been engaged by the TF. Though this has been a comedy of IJN errors, the entire affair may have convinced Apbarog that every hex in SoPac contains a Japanese submarine.

[Aurorus]

April 25th, 1942

The race is on in China. Have I mentioned that these types of races are my favorite part of any war game? The tension builds and each day is interesting. The Japanese army is on the Hengyang-Kweilin road and rail-line and at the gates of Kweilin. Approximately 8 Chinese corps are south of this road in rough terrain. Can the IJA cut them off and pocket them? It will be close-run. The IJA air corps is beginning bombing to try to interdict of the movemnt of the Chinese units that could be caught in the pocket. However, Apbarog has moved in Hurricanes from India-Burma.

In this campaign, I will intoduce another of my favorite air-war tactics. The Sonias will fly at very low altitude, 2K, and without escorts. Only 1 squadron will bomb each hex to prevent the bombers from coming in waves. The idea is to have Apbarog reduce the altitude of his CAP fighters, because often, one very low unescorted strike will be able to attack below the CAP before high-flying fighters can bounce them. Apbarog has been increasing the alitude of his CAP to avoid being bounced, so I want him to bring his fighters down to altitudes better suited to early war Japanese air-frames. I also want to bounce him if possible with sweeping fighters. A restricted, size-45 squadron of rookies in A6M2s, has relocated to Pescadores and will be sweeping the area, because I hate putting Oscar 1cs against Hurricanes.

Apbarog must know that Hurricanes terrify me until the Tojo and Oscar IIa arrive. 6 days until the first Tojo exits the assembly plant, and 36 days before the first Oscar IIa arrives.

[Aurorus]

April 26th, 1942.

The tragic comedy that is the Japanese submarine fleet had another noteworthy performance today. It began with the greatest ship in the history of naval warfare, the AM Tern, warding off another submarine attack with its two 3 inch guns and its two 7.7 mm machine guns (which are often insufficient, I note, to shoot down a biplane when these same machine guns are on a Japanese fighter.) Of course, the greatest ship in the history of naval warfare does have 9 explosive barrels on rails at its stern. Unfortunately, all nine of these barrels rolled off 4 days ago.

ASW attack near Pago Pago at 150,165

Japanese Ships
SS I-28

Allied Ships
xAK Wilhelmina
xAK Makua
xAK George Livanos
xAK Sonnavind
xAK Clan Mactavish
AM Tern

SS I-28 is sighted by escort

Nearby, another Japanese submarine was badly damaged by an ASW TF, which Apbarog apparently dispatched to help the gallant Tern. Of course, the greatest ship in the history of naval warfare needs no assistance.

ASW attack near Ta'u at 153,165

Japanese Ships
SS I-28, hits 2

Allied Ships
APD Sands
APD Hatfield
APD Lawrence

Near Norfolk Island, another Japanese sub bravely approaches another mighty AM with its machine guns and 9 barrels on a rail. The sub fails against such formidible opposition.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Norfolk Island at 113,173

Japanese Ships
SS I-171, hits 2

Allied Ships
xAKL Caledon
AM Mildura

SS I-171 launches 2 torpedoes at xAKL Caledon
AM Mildura attacking submerged sub ....

Nearby, another Japanese submarine is warded off by a lesser vessel than a might AM.

ASW attack near Waipapakauri at 118,178

Japanese Ships
SS I-8

Allied Ships
PC Kybra

SS I-8 is sighted by escort
I-8 diving deep ....

The I-17 was not so lucky as the I-8. She tangled with a 3rd mighty AM and limped away wiser for it.

ASW attack near Eua at 137,170

Japanese Ships
SS I-17, hits 2

Allied Ships
AM Cessnock

SS I-17 is sighted by escort
I-17 diving deep ....

To aggravate the insult, an allied sub sinks a Japanese AM.

Sub attack near Deboyne Islands at 103,134

Japanese Ships
AMc Misago Maru, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS KIX

SS KIX launches 2 torpedoes
Escort abandons search for sub

Then, 6 Japanese DDs try to redeem the day for the IJN by attacking an allied sub. They all miss. These are not allied AMs.

ASW attack near Auki at 114,135

Japanese Ships
DD Hayashio
CS Nisshin
DD Oyashio
DD Makigumo
DD Akebono
DD Nowaki

Allied Ships
SS Grayling

SS Grayling launches 4 torpedoes at DD Hayashio

My reward for having almost every submarine in the South Pacific perfectly positioned to attack every allied convoy in the area? Two damaged subs and the mocking laughter of allied escort crews that can be heard across thousands of kilometers of ocean. Days like this make me laugh when I read AFBs complaining about how U.S. subs do not automatically sink every Japanese ship by Nov. 1942.

[Aurorus]

The AM Tern.

[Aurorus]

I re-organized my A6M2 pilots today and used PPs to change the HQ for the size-45 squadron that was restricted to the Home Islands. With numbers being so important, especially against Hurricanes at this point in the war, there is no sense in using a size 45 squadron to fly CAP with rookie pilots and build their experience. I have shifted the rookie pilots to 2 size 27 squadrons (one of which will be divided for CVEs soon). Because the IJA has no plane capable of dealing with the Hurricane until I have my first squadron of Tojos in a month and my first squadron of Oscar IIas in two months, I am sending this squadron to the China-Burma-India area: wherever Hurricanes appear. I have named the squadron, for the time being, "The Hurricane Hunters." The Tojo enters production on May 1, but it will be June before I have enough for a squadron.

Apbarog seems to have withdrawn his Hurricanes from China for the moment and seems to be hitting and then running with them, so the Hurricane Hunters must play hide and seek with the Hurricane. The empire's leading ace, I. Hirusawa, who has 8 kills, has been assigned to the squadron.

[Aurorus]

April 27th.

The Hurricane hunters flew their first sortie over a Chinese stack, nearest Kweilin, that was bombed yesterday from 2000 feet by Sonias. They did not encounter Hurricanes, but did encounter Chinese bi-planes. The sweep came in at 20K

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 51st Chinese Corps, at 77,55 , near Kweilin

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 34 NM, estimated altitude 21,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 38

Allied aircraft
I-16-III x 4

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
I-16-III: 2 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
38 x A6M2 Zero sweeping at 20000 feet

Nearby, along the Hengyand-Kweilin road, Lillies bombed a Chinese stack retreating to better terrain to try to stop the pincer move. 16 Hurricanes were flying CAP over the hex, but at 20k. The Lillies came in at 2K, under the CAP.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 60th Chinese Corps, at 78,53 , near Hengyang

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 34 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-48-Ib Lily x 21

Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIa Trop x 16

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-48-Ib Lily: 1 damaged

No Allied losses

Allied ground losses:
179 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 8 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
21 x Ki-48-Ib Lily bombing from 2000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 100 kg GP Bomb

Now, the questions are: how closely is Apbarog examing the combat reports and does he understand his dilemma? If he continues to fly his CAP at 20K, my single, unescorted bomber squadrons will continue to come in under his CAP. If he drops his CAP to lower altitude to intercept the bombers, he risks getting bounced by the A6M2s who will have numbers, altitude, and an air combat that is within a good manuever band for the Zero. He is a very intelligent fellow, and I suspect that he looks at the combat reports very closely and understands exactly what the predicament is. So the only question that remains is: how will he respond? (I have run this same strategy with Oscar Ics in the past and have been able to bounce Hurricanes flying at 10k with Oscar Ics with a substantial numbers advantage and superior pilot quality. The result: a lot of destroyed Oscars.)

This is one of many reasons why altitude restrictions are completely unnecessary, in my opinion. By careful use of the existing system, a thoughtful player can try to force his opponent to fight at the altitude that he prefers.

[Aurorus]

In other war news, on April 27th, 1942, the Dutch garrison at the redoubt in Bandoeng surrendered, and I think that all Dutch resistance in the DEI has been eliminated. The DEI is now completely in Japanese hands. The two divisions on Java had some squads disabled and will be 2 weeks recovering. One division will remain on Java as a garrison, along with a few other assorted units. This frees up 3 armored regiments, 12 heavy artillery battalions, including the big 24cm and 30cm guns, and 1 division for action in Burma, Luzon, or SoPac. Most of the heavy artillery is slated for Luzon. As for the rest, I am undecided.

Ground combat at Bandoeng (50,100)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 26425 troops, 236 guns, 278 vehicles, Assault Value = 917

Defending force 17173 troops, 174 guns, 37 vehicles, Assault Value = 165

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 0

Japanese adjusted assault: 1417

Allied adjusted defense: 397

Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Bandoeng !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), leaders(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
746 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 86 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Allied ground losses:
17777 casualties reported
Squads: 208 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 720 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 236 (236 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 52 (52 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 19

Assaulting units:
33rd Division
2nd Tank Regiment
38th Division
4th Tank Regiment
7th Tank Regiment
15th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
2nd Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion

[Aurorus]

April 29th, 1942: Their Finest Hour.

Apbarog moved 3 fighter groups to Koumac, and all 3 swept Noumea. I wish he had done this yesterday, because I stood down the bombers yesterday and put both A6M2 groups there on CAP to vary my play. Today only 1 group of A6M2s was set on CAP 80%, range 0, altitude 10K (to give them some space to climb and still remain in their best manuever band). Two JAAF btns there now have radar (though, as I mentioned, first generation Japanese radar is not much better than sound detectors in my experience).

All 45 A6M2s from Yokoyama's 3 Ku-S-1 Sentai eventually scrambled against 3 waves of allied fighters. P-40s came in first at 12K. Radar detected the raid at 12 minutes out. (Sound detectors usually only detect P-40 fighter sweeps at 10 minutes out). 12 A6M2s were on station, and climbed above the P-40s, swooping down and causing havoc as 24 more of Yokoyama's squadron scrambled off the deck to join the action. The 12 on-station fighters completely disrupted the P-40s attack, destoying more than half the P-40 squadron.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Koumac , at 113,156

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 35 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 45

Allied aircraft
P-40E Warhawk x 20

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
P-40E Warhawk: 8 destroyed

CAP engaged:
3rd Ku S-1 with A6M2 Zero (0 airborne, 24 on standby, 9 scrambling)
12 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 29 minutes

The next wave were Airacobra, P-400s, high, over 20K. By this point 37 A6M2s were on station. A few Zeros were pulled above the 15k ceiling, and the initial dive of the P-400s caught a few less experience Zero pilots who climbed too high. But then Yokoyama's Zeros went to work, dogfighting, turning, manuevering in behind, and diving on the P-400s that had overshot. Nearly half the P-400 squadron did not return home.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Koumac , at 113,156

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 22 NM, estimated altitude 26,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 45

Allied aircraft
P-400 Airacobra x 22

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-400 Airacobra: 7 destroyed

CAP engaged:
3rd Ku S-1 with A6M2 Zero (4 airborne, 4 on standby, 0 scrambling)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
37 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 9000 and 16000*.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 22 minutes

*Starting to get pulled too high. I should have set the squadron at 9K, but then, I am not sure if they would have climbed enough to bounce the first wave of P-40s.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Koumac , at 113,156

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 49 NM, estimated altitude 19,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 35

Allied aircraft
P-400 Airacobra x 20

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-400 Airacobra: 1 destroyed

CAP engaged:
3rd Ku S-1 with A6M2 Zero (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
32 plane(s) not yet engaged, 3 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 12000 and 17000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 71 minutes

The final wave of P-400s came in just below 20K, and just above the Zeros. Many of pilots of Ku-3 were low on ammo by this point. They dodged most of the P-400s, swirling, turning, and avoiding the slashing attacks, and fighting the final sweep even with nothing left in their cannons.

The final tally for the day shows between 32 and 36 allied fighter downed for 12 A6M2s. Because the battle was over my base, only 2 of Yokoyama's pilots were killed in the battle and 2 more joined the long list of wounded who will be returning the coming months. 2 pilots for 32-36 allied fighters. The total number of IJN fighter pilots lost in the first 5 months of the war: 20. The result of taking every possible measure to preserve IJN pilots is that the quality of the front-line IJN squadrons is elite; nearly half of this squadron is Tracom eligible, and the same is true for all 3 front-line IJN squadrons and all the CV squadrons. It will be a tragic day when all these fine, young men are consumed by the U.S. multitude.

When I saw the third sweep, I thought the IJN was going to suffer this day. This is one of the finest performances that I have seen from a fighter squadron: giving away altitude and inflicting 3 to 1 casualties while outnumbered 1.5 to 1.

Here is the scoresheet for the day.

[Aurorus]

Also on April 29th, the Betties from Koumac managed some hits on allied AKLs just north of Norfolk Island, including a fearsome allied AM.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Norfolk Island at 115,167

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid spotted at 38 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 45
G4M1 Betty x 22

Allied aircraft
P-39D Airacobra x 6

Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 2 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
P-39D Airacobra: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
AM Echuca, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
xAKL White Wing
xAKL William McArthur, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
xAKL Fiona, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
xAKL Carlisle, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
xAKL Island Mail, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk

Aircraft Attacking:
22 x G4M1 Betty launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp

It seems that a fight is coming around New Caledonia. I-17 spotted what appears to be an allied SCTF leaving Vava U. I-17 was badly damaged with flooding and fires in the control room. The fires were extinguished, but she may not make it back to Tulagi.

ASW attack near Kandavu Island at 130,165

Japanese Ships
SS I-17, hits 4, heavy damage

Allied Ships
CL St. Louis
DD Fanning
DD Drayton
DD Cummings
DD Preston

SS I-17 is sighted by escort

Japanese naval surface combat and air combat assets are quietly taking up positions in the lower Solomons and around Ndeni. I think, after today's action, in which the USAAF was defeated soundly by the IJN, Apbarog may try to run a light bombardment group into Koumac. There may be a good deal of action soon. Also, if he upgraded his CVs in March and April and the allied CVs left the West Coast one week ago, they may be approaching SoPac as well. There is a storm gathering in SoPac, and everyone can feel the pressure dropping as the winds begin to blow.

[Aurorus]

April 30th, 1942

There was something about the attack on the AKLs by the Betties yesterday that I did not mention (because I did not want to post anything embarassing to Apbarog). The TF was out of fuel.

Echuca dead in the water ...

I post this now, because it has a major impact on events of today. Search planes revealed what appeared to be TKs in the hex that contained the AKLs, which I assumed that Apbarog had dispatched to refuel the TF. Because there appeared to be Tks there, I moved the small size-36 squadron of A6M2s down from Luganville to escort the Betties today in case those tankers remained in range. Yomoyama's A6M2 group stood down to recover fatigue, and recieved replacement aircraft. The other A6M2 squadron flew CAP. Had those TKs not been there yesterday, I probably would have stood the Betties down today and waited for Yomoyama's A6M2 group to recover.

As it is, the large size-45 squadron of Betties was set on naval strike with 30% search. In the AM, naval search turned up a large allied fleet presence, with CVs just SE of Noumea. 30 Betties, escorted by 36 rookie pilots launched on the CVs. Apbarog had the CVs set up for near-maximum CAP. It appears there are 5 U.S. CVs and the British CVLs. He had 4 CV F4F squadrons set to 100% CAP and it appears 2 others set to 60% CAP with 40% escort for a strike if any Japanese threats presented themselves. The rookie A6M2 pilots fought valiantly, but there was little they could do to keep the allied fighters off the Betties, which were devastated. All 30 Betties in the strike were destroyed and 12 A6M2s for a handful of allied planes. So the USN avenges the USAAF. 12 irreplaceable Betty pilots were KIA and another 14 MIA (nearly all of whom will eventually become KIAs). 7 A6M2 pilots were KIA and 2 MIA (increasing the IJN's fighter pilot losses by 50% in one day).


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Isle of Pines at 116,161

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 28 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 35
G4M1 Betty x 30

Allied aircraft
Fulmar II x 9
Martlet II x 19
F4F-3A Wildcat x 45
F4F-3 Wildcat x 27
F4F-4 Wildcat x 25

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 4 destroyed
G4M1 Betty: 16 destroyed

No Allied losses

A number of allied fighters were damaged, but only 1 kill was confirmed for the A6M2s.

Later in the day, a large flight of B-17s and Liberators

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Koumac , at 113,156

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 36 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 36

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 16
LB-30 Liberator x 7

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 1 destroyed, 12 damaged
LB-30 Liberator: 4 damaged

Japanese Ships
SS RO-67, Bomb hits 1

10 or 12 B-17s were destroyed in the engagement, but at a cost of 19 A6M2s damaged and out of the action for tomorrow.

[Aurorus]

Here is the situation then.

The out of fuel gambit may have been a very sneaky ploy by Apbarog: 3 dimensional chess, but I doubt it. As it stands, he has struck the first blow at Noumea and now has 5 U.S. fleet CVs and SCTFs covering reinforcement for Noumea. If he reinforces Noumea, it will not fall until all of the allied supplies there have been used: months. I doubt, in fact, that I will ever take the base if he reinforces it. His timing could not have been better. 4 days later, and I would have had the CV battle that I covet. 1 day later, and I would have bombarded Koumac and damaged the port to slow the off-loading.

2 Japanese CA TFs are in the area. One is 9 hexes (a full-speed move) from Noumea or Koumac; the other is at the southern tip of the Solomons. Akagi, Kaga, and Zuikaku have taken up a position at the southern tip of the Solomons. They will be joined by the 3 CVLs today. Hiryu, Soryu, and Shokaku are 4 days away. The original plan was to have the Akagi grp. and the CVLs cover the CA groups as they withdrew from bombarding, while waiting for the Shokaku grp. Those torpedo hits on Hiryu and Soryu set me back just enough to prevent my attacking the U.S. CVs tommorrow.

By striking the first blow, Apbarog has the initiative and has me at a major disadvantage. The 4-Es from Australia are mostly spent for the next 5 or 6 days. However, he appears to have moved 3 fresh fighter squadrons into Noumea to support his CVs. The large Betty squadron has been destroyed, which limits my ability to strike his CVs with LBA, and although the A6M2s at Koumac have inflicted signficant losses on the allied fighter force and 4-Es, there are now 38 damaged A6M2s sitting on the deck at Koumac: 19 from the squadron that engaged the B-17s, 12 replacements for Yomoyaka's groups, and 7 from the rookie squadron. 75 are available to fly tomorrow.

What should I do? There are numerous options: none of them ideal. Apbarog has DL 3 on the heavy CA group 10 hexes north of his CVs. He is unaware of the presence of any other Japanese ships including the CVs at the southern tip of the Solomons.

Does he fear those A6M2s at Noumea enough to avoid sweeping them and then trying to bomb the airfield with has naval air tomorrow? I think that he does. If his CVs are set to naval strike with a secondary target of the airfield at Koumac, the CV strike against the airfield will arrive in the afternoon, and the sweeps in the AM. The Zeros will be able to counter both, and even with as many planes disabled as now, those 75 A6M2s (most of whom are fresh) will cause havoc for both the USAAF and the USN. As such, I suspect that Apbarog will stay defensive, cover his landings with the LBA, and leave his CVs on patrol set to naval strike with no secondary target. Would he be aggressive enough to chase off after the heavy CAs 9 hexes north of Koumac?

[Aurorus]

Here was his CAP deployment over his CVs today. This is a near-maximum CAP setting. If he remains in a similar posture with his alititude settings, his CVs will be very difficult to strike "on the cheap." One thing to note is the low-flying British fighters. One tactic that I like to employ in CV enagements, if my opponent likes to fly too high is to set a squadron or 2 of B5N2s to strike from 1K unesorted and fly in under the CAP. I am not sure that 8 Fulmars is enough to discourage me from trying this tactic. Also, I wonder if he will set fighters on low CAP when he is deployed to launch a strike package with his CVs? Finally, note the time that the raid was spotted: 28 minutes, which allows nearly every U.S. plane set to CAP to scamble and engage a first strike. Who says the game does not take radar into account? I would say that good radar is the single most important advantage that the allies have, as in the real war.

The Betties did give me some good intelligence on how Apbarog likes to set up his CVs: very expensive intelligence, 30 airframes, 60 engines, and 26 irreplaceable pilots.

CAP engaged:

VF-2 with F4F-4 Wildcat (0 airborne, 10 on standby, 10 scrambling)
5 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 4000 and 20000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 42 minutes
13 planes vectored on to bombers
VF-42 with F4F-3 Wildcat (0 airborne, 11 on standby, 11 scrambling)
5 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 15000 , scrambling fighters between 3000 and 15000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 34 minutes
19 planes vectored on to bombers
VF-6 with F4F-3A Wildcat (0 airborne, 11 on standby, 11 scrambling)
5 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 11000 , scrambling fighters between 4000 and 17000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 26 minutes
12 planes vectored on to bombers
No.800 Sqn FAA with Fulmar II (0 airborne, 4 on standby, 4 scrambling)
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 6000 , scrambling fighters between 2000 and 12000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 30 minutes
8 planes vectored on to bombers
No.888 Sqn FAA with Martlet II (0 airborne, 8 on standby, 8 scrambling)
3 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 16000 , scrambling fighters between 9000 and 16000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 50 minutes
16 planes vectored on to bombers
VMF-111 with F4F-3A Wildcat (0 airborne, 8 on standby, 7 scrambling)
3 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 13000 , scrambling fighters between 4000 and 13000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 37 minutes
10 planes vectored on to bombers

[Aurorus]

I am starting to form a plan. Hiryu and Soryu may be 4 days away, but their A6M squadrons can be on-site tomorrow. In fact, over 230 A6M2s can be on-site tomorrow.

[Aurorus]

Here is my assessment of the situation.

Noumea is only one hex on a very large map. It is a springboard to New Zealand and to cutting off U.S. reinforcements to Australia, and I recently changed objectives on 3 divisions for a New Zealand landing rather than an Australian landing. The purpose of this southern move, however, is not to permanently cut off Australia. That is impossible. The U.S. will break through eventually, and fuel limitations prohibit constant vigilance along the entire route to Australia. Moreover, the further south that go in force, the greater is the risk of having important divisions cut off far from home. The entire purpose of this southern move is to force a fleet battle and destroy U.S. naval assets, which I now have in front of me. Mission accomplished.

There is no point in trying to prevent any reinforcements from arriving in Noumea tomorrow. The only assets in position to do so are the 4 old heavy CAs and the 6 Japanese MTBs, which are at Koumac. Instead, the objective here is to fight a fleet battle. To wait for Hiryu and Soryu is to miss an opportunity. To rush in is to be destroyed piecemeal. (Again, Apbarog had arrived 4 days later, he would have been confronted by 3 SCTFs, including fast BBs, every Japanese CV and CVL, and the airfield at La Foa would have been size 1, instead of 99% complete. So... perfectly timed by Apbarog.

What I want to do is to fight a fleet battle without regard for Noumea. In order to do so, my airfield at Koumac is essential, because I must suppress the allied fighters at Noumea to have any chance of destroying U.S. naval assets. Furthermore, I will have 4 Japanese CVs and 3 CVLs against 5 U.S. CVs and 2 British CVLs (Shokaku was at Tulagi taking on fuel and pilots and can join Ryujo grp which topped off its fuel at Tulagi yesterday). I will be outnumbered, and he will have radar. LBA is crucial if I am to be successful here. The primary concern then is that he bombards Koumac. Neither the sub that encountereed one of the allied TFs nor the search planes showed any allied BBs (though they showed no CVs either and it appears that they were shot down by CAP before giving a full report). This does not mean that BBs are not present, but I have every reason to believe that there are no allied BBs here. As such, everything depends upon 6 MTBs and the old CAs. They must prevent the allies from bombarding Koumac. The CAs will move at full speed to Koumac. The allied TFs are 7 hexes away (outside the range of a full-speed move from the old U.S. BBs) and Furutaka grp is 6 hexes away. They should win the race.

Hiryu and Soryu A6M2 grps. will transfer to Koumac, bringing the A6M2 total there to 110 ready planes. These will all fly CAP to cover Furutaka grp. and possible set a CAP trap for the U.S. CVs. Apbarog may be feeling more confident today after dispatching the Betties with such ease and damaging so many fighters at Noumea. He may advance his CVs NW toward the Solomons and my CVs to clear the area of threats to his transport TFs. Akagi grp and the CVLs will move to a position about 8-9 hexes away from the likely location of the U.S. CVs if they move at cruise speed NW. The CVs will be set with very litte CAP (very high risk, I know), near-maximum escort, on a kate strike using bombs, playing for a 9-hex strike on the U.S. CVs. They will come low, 4K, to increase the likelihood of hits and possibly avoid radar detection. Chokai grp and Kongo grp will move to the area between the Solomons and Ndeni, just east of the CVs. The smaller group of Betties may transfer to Koumac and try a night-time torpedo strike. All submarine assets in SoPac will converge on the area.

[Aurorus]

April 31st: Not their finest hour.

I write these after watching the combat replay to help me collect my thoughts. Apbarog requested that I send him the replay with the turn rather than immediately, so that he does not worry while waiting for the turn. As such, for anyone reading both AARs, please refrain from mentioning anything about the combat events of the day in Apbarog's AAR to honor his request not to know anything until he has the turn in his hands.

The night was uneventful. Furutaka grp. arrived in Koumac and no allied ships approached. In the early morning hours, numerous patrol craft, Betties, and Nells from Ndeni, Koumac, and Luganville began reporting back on the size of the allied armada assembled around Noumea. It appears to be most of the combined allied navies: Dutch, British, and U.S. . Not often in WiTP do you see such an enormous collection of allied assets in 1942. The soldiers, sailors, air-crews, and pilots at Koumac rose very early. They were the first breaker against the massive allied assault and the vanguard of the Kentai Kessen. The entire outcome of the war was now in their hands. They knew that.

The first planes appeared over Koumac later in the morning: a sweep by 27 F-4Fs. 108 A6M2 pilots scrambled into their cockpits and took flight. Many were tired. Two groups had arrived late in the day yesterday flying down from Hiryu and Soryu north of the Solomons. The rest had already fought yesterday or the day before. The F-4Fs came in low, at 8K, 2 F-4Fs found Zeros scrambling off the flight deck and dove on them, getting 2 kills. The rest of the battle belonged to the IJN. 10 F4Fs were destroyed, and it appeared that all the others were damaged. Then 27 P-39s arrived, very high. Again, 2 found A6M2s climbing and vulnerable. Then the P-39s were swarmed by Zeros. Only 7-9 kills, however, but it seemed that every P-39 was damaged.

Finally, a strike from Dauntless DBs on the Furutaka grp: 45 Wildcats and 54 Dauntless. The A6M2s were scattered all over the sky from the 2 fighter sweeps at very different altitudes (a very good tactic, by the way, to scatter CAP before an attack). As a result, they did not converge en mass on the allied CV strike. The F4Fs fought very well, holding off the A6M2s. Only 17 A6M2s got through to the bombers, and only 7 kills were scored on the U.S. DBs. The F4Fs also faired well in the battle, losing only 15 or so planes: though the number of damaged F4Fs was very high. The DBs got through and scored 3 bomb hits on the Kinugasa, 1 on the Kako, and 2 on the CL Jintsu.

Here are the aircraft losses for the day. This is somewhat deceptive, however. Though the IJN did not perform as well as in previous engagements, the number of allied aircraft damaged was enormous. I watched the replay twice to count the damaged F-4Fs and P-39s, and I counted 50 damaged F-4Fs, and every P-39 as damaged. Watching the replay, it appeared more like an Oscar swarm than an A6M2 swarm. The F-4F is a service rating 1 plane, but most of these planes should be out of the action tomorrow. Certainly some of the damaged F-4Fs were destroyed, but 50 damaged is 2 full CV-squadrons. 22 destroyed in another squadron. My guess is that tomorrow the 130 F4Fs that flew yesterday will be down to 80. Enough to defend the CVs and launch an effective strike? The P-39 is a service rating 2 plane, and it appears that every plane in the squadron went home damaged. That is 20 planes that will be on the deck at Noumea tomorrow and probably the next day as well. The 63 fighters there are now 40, unless reinforced.