Notes from a Small Island

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: GetAssista

ORIGINAL: Wargmr
This would be unfair to your opponent... I love it :]

Oi, why not make the post title a bit more compelling too [:D]

Why not indeed?

Too much? [:D]

[Canoerebel]

This is in honor of Warspite, who has this thing about dangly bits (or so Chickenboy says).

[Lecivius]

[Drakanel]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I also want to post fast and furious here, since over the past few days I've been sending emails to Erik about house rules, asking for copies, asking for clarifications, etc. Nothing major is up right now but he'll wonder.

That is an evil idea.

I approve [8D]


Still looking forward to finally uncover where your first major invasion is going to land. Keep those turns flipping [:D]

[Canoerebel]

In the West, the long range plan is this:

1. Build up troops, let units upgrade, and act menacing forward....while actually planning nothing until the Allied offensive begins in the Pacific.

2. When the Pacific offensive begins, Erik should be stretched and will have to draw down some of his Burma forces. Then the Allies will move in great strength on Rangoon.

3. Rangoon will be the key, because the Allies will then unleash the massive Chinese army for an overland campaign into China. The troops are already beginning to filter through the jungles, far from the roads. Supply is trickling to them and they haven't been observed.

4. I'll pour everything possible into China - possibly 30k to 40k AV - heading straight for the East China Sea. A force that size should be overwhelming as long as it is supplied. And I think I can do the supply.

[Lokasenna]

Oh come on, go with the Metal(tm) post name: Regurgitating Giblets

[Reg]

Adding to the SigInt....... [;)]

(and following this AAR too) [:)]

[Canoerebel]

4/13/44

The unremarkably plain sedan is humming along an unimportant country road. Nobody is likely to take notice of the little car traveling along without any apparent destination or passengers that might appear threatening.

PTO: I've nearly completed one of the most immense operations I've ever undertaken. Joseph bequeathed me with tremendous advantages - massive ship, air and infantry OOB, excellent prep, and superb logistical work. The one disadvantage was that the Allied army was positioned very far forward - many, many divisions and smaller units right under the nose and guns of the Japanese. Divisions at Manus and Madang, Rabul and Kaeving, and a dozen other forward places.

The prospect of pulling that army back was daunting. Bringing ships forward and allowing time for them to load and retire, all under close observation by the Japanese. Enemy subs, air an raiding TFs were likely to raise havoc with the process, slowing things down while I attended carefully to defense.

Only that didn't happen. Erik didn't engage a single time in any way. So the ships came forward, the troops loaded, and the ships retired. More than 9,000 AV aboard more than a thousand ships. Not one of them damaged or sunk.

Now that Allied army is much further back, at big marshalling points where they continue to prep (and some to upgrade) for future operations. Most of the prep of the big units ranges from 30 to 70. So about two months until they are ready for action.

In the meantime, ships are upgrading on schedule.

And I'm monitoring SigInt. This has been going on long enough to have a fair idea of what's where and what Erik might be thinking...even while allowing for the possibility that disinformation and trickiness are quite likely.

In about a month, the Allies will move on Miri, Maloelap, Roi, Kwaj and Eniwetok. These bases are lightly held and won't involve major ground forces. Erik knows of my interest in this region and may be ready...or may concede via "catcher's indifference."

But what I hope is that the immediately following op will entice him to act if those don't. That a feint on Marcus might draw in KB for a big carrier clash.

That's what's going on under the hood of the innocent, unremarkable little sedan driving slowly down the country lane.

[BBfanboy]

I presume you mean Mili rather than Miri (the oil centre on Borneo north coast).
Mili is useful because it is not an atoll, so the stacking limit allows for a decent engineering force.

EDIT: Mili is an atoll, so it will trigger a landing shock attack, but it does have a S/L larger than 6,000. The limit varies with patches and versions so I leave the exact figure as "it depends". [;)]

[Canoerebel]

4/17/44

SigInt: Today's report includes the most important info I've gotten thus far - exact number of men at one of the primary targets.

Damaged Capital Ships: There were three CV, a CVL, and a fast BB damaged in action shortly before I stepped in (we stepped back to begin 3/1/44). Yorktown and Intrepid are repaired. The other CV will be ready in 15 days. The CVL in 29 days. The BB won't participate in the next round of major action.

Prep: Prep for the next round of "catcher's indifference" targets (the Marshalls) is mostly 85% to 90% now. I should be ready to trigger the invasions in about a month (mainly waiting for those damaged carriers). The prep for the real show thereafter ranges from 40% to about 80%. So that's what's gonna take some time.

[morejeffs]

How did the night bombing followed by daytime sweeps go?

[Canoerebel]

4/25/44

All is quiet everywhere on the board. I think Erik is "bored" to death. This is purposeful. He's very engaged in his game with Lowpe. He knows I'm very engaged in my game with John III. We're flipping turns that involve not a single engagement of any kind anywhere on the map. He sees little things - Chinese units moving cross country in the westernmost jungle hexes on the Burma border. He knows I've pulled back from the SWPac frontier. He's sending subs to sniff out things. But by and large he appears to be bored to death.

Under the hood, there's not a thing boring about this game. There is a great deal of preparation going on. Everything is rounding into shape. SigInt whispers the things I had hoped and expected. In fact, with Eric (probably) distracted, I'd pull the trigger now.

The one thing keeping me from seriously considering that option is prep. I still need at least 30 days of additional prep. Maybe 45.

In the meantime, a few small things are underway. Just enough to tweak his interest a bit; the kind of thing like the Chinese creeping through the jungles.

...and I'll continue to monitor SigInt every day to see if the slumbering behemoth has stirring or suspicions.

[Drakanel]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

4/25/44

All is quiet everywhere on the board. I think Erik is "bored" to death. This is purposeful. He's very engaged in his game with Lowpe. He knows I'm very engaged in my game with John III.

Just as long as he doesn't completely fall asleep and forgets to flip the turns [:D]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
He knows I've pulled back from the SWPac frontier.

All this 'game within a game' is amusing. As Judge Judy will sometimes say: "Don't tell me what you think he knew. That's hearsay." [;)]

[Canoerebel]

Judge Judy is wrong. That's not hearsay. That's speculation.

Obvert may be six steps ahead of me. My game within a game may be way wrong or ineffective. But it's all I have to talk about right now. [:)]

[Canoerebel]

4/30/44

Marshalls: Allis invade and take Mili after a brief firefight. This little action is a marked departure from recent weeks, which have seen day after day pass without a single confrontation anywhere on the map.

There will be several other fights to follow. I don't think Erik will contest this area: Catcher's Indifference, as I've said before. Even so, I don't want to lose any decent ships out here, so there's a bit of tension.

behind it all, I wonder what Erik is thinking.

[Chickenboy]

Where on New Guinea is Priority #1? [;)]

ETA: I'm a little baffled about the non-defense of the Marshalls. I'd at least have token resistance to a base so near his LOS as Roi-Namur for goodness' sake. Is Eniwetok garrisoned?

[Canoerebel]

I think Eniwetok is lightly garrisoned.

I'm surprised too at the Catcher's Indifference. I know that John III would've had at least modest air presence - search aircraft with the ability to bring in strike aircraft; plus at least a small DD TF. But Erik knows what he's doing, no doubt.

SigInt shows no holes "deep." Places that should be garrisoned are - Hokkaido, Coastal China, the Ryukus, Taiwan, Luzon, Borneo, Java, Sumatra, etc. So no freebies out there. But the good thing is that his defenses seem appropriately dispersed. He's doesn't show any signs of leaning one way or another, as though he smelled something coming.

So no freebies but possibly an opportunity to overwhelm at a point of attack.

I bet there will be a big carrier battle around that time.

[Lokasenna]

I'm pretty sure Roi has a small fort unit that is static?

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I'm pretty sure Roi has a small fort unit that is static?

Yes. Without looking at the game OOB, I recall that too. Don't remember the level of / number of CD units and their fill out though.