Nach Moskau und zurück - Gunnulf (A) AtAtack (S) GC-No early end

[Gunnulf]

T70 Ordzhonikidze

LVII & XIV Panzer Korps push through and secure the railyard at Ordzhonikidze. Once again Soviet armour suffer pretty horrendous casualty ratios in this case with attached tank SUs. Wondering whether commander Mech stats are a major factor here and with the previous battles with the Tank corps last week.
Not quite able to connect the rails immediately but baring an unlikely counterattack it will be in action after next week. The aim now with winter on the horizon is to secure the perimeter to the south and push out and exploit further to the east as far as our luck allows. Grozny may or may not be possible depending on how much the Reds divert to this sector, either way hopefully at least slightly disrupting plans for counter-attacks elsewhere. If there were already additional major forces down here I think they would already have made themselves known, and those in front of us are probably not a major threat to our current gains. If this railyard does fill the gap in our logistics issue down here then everything else is gravy.

[Gunnulf]

T72 Army Group North

In the last turn before snow hits a bit of a review of the quieter parts of the Eastern Front starting with Army Group North. Everything very quiet up here as we have established our defences in pretty solid defensive terrain making best use of heavy woodland and river lines where possible, with defences and reserves in depth and a solid parallel rail line in the rear to facilitate movements of reserves and supplies. At some point the Soviets will have to grasp the nettle and start making progress here but it won't be easy so not surprising its been quiet. In the meantime we have enough to ensure its held strongly, almost everything in the front is set to static to free up trucks, while regiments in reserve can refit and rotate. We have thinned out some divisions to go south but otherwise units can refit and rebuilt here in relative safety probably for another year.
But ultimately that the front line is 200 miles from Velike Luki for example will be a serious problem for the prospects of long term Soviet progress and they will need to do something about this at some point. The natural point to apply pressure will probably be near Kalinin at some point, from a VP and a logistics perspective.

[Gunnulf]

T72 Army Group Centre

Further down the line likewise 9 and 4 Armee's are well dug in to heavy woods with supplies and reserves at hand. These are not static divisions though maybe they could be as I don't expect the attack to be focused on such formidable positions. We could be wrong of course but welcome this I think as should be the Rzhez meatgrinder all over again, just even further east in better terrain. But like the AGN sector the Reds can't ignore this forever. By turns 84-89 many of the cities such as Rzhez, Voronezh, Kharkov and Kursk will lose their time bonus and without them the Axis HWM will be difficult to match. Tula, Orel and Kalinin have already expired of course. At 7m+ the Soviets are larger than historical but need to expend some of this preserved capital in order to progress back on track.
Likely the hammer should fall initially on the Ryazan and Tambov sectors which are well dug in but thinner lines and less favourable terrain, however there are 6 solid Panzer and Motorised Divisions in reserve behind the front to respond, and solid manned prepared defences in front of Tula to eventually fall back to if/when this frontier becomes untenable. This is where the action up here will likely be of course, probably before too long I'm sure but our reconnaissance hasn't picked up on any troop concentrations yet...

Otherwise probably worth mentioning that both AGN and AGC are almost entirely within 3 hexes of depots and using virtually no trucks currently, freeing these up for the more active Army group A & B sectors down south. Looking at the key numbers here we have lost 162k trucks over the past 72 turns for an average of 2.2k per turn which on Loki's measure of 2.5k per turn seems promising. We have 10k in the pool, and to date captured 42k Soviet vehicles since the start of the campaign.

[Gunnulf]

T72 Caucasus

Finally a quick peek down south before the snow hits, 11 Armee & 8 Italian Armee create a nice bubble around our new railhead. The superdepot hopefully starts to bear fruit after this turn when the FDB doesnt move further, but also major repairs also needed to the railyard itself before it is truly effective. In the meantime the solid defensive terrain here should be tougher to shift than our previous positions around Goergievsk.

[Gunnulf]

T73 Caucasus

11 Armee continues the exploitation after the arrival of nice refreshing light snow. Fuel is a bit low for some divisions but enough to rest and replenish a few units at a time to restock while the rest do the heavy lifting. Tanks losses are not insignificant but inflicting plenty too and the new models come out next year. Of note though 3 battalions of the new Tigers are getting their baptism down here and performing as well as expected accounting for a large proportion of the kills.
The German units seconded to 8th Italian army start to secure the pass to Tblissi but don't expect too much trouble from this direction so long as its covered, nor will we have a chance to push through. I've always thought a bit strange that Tblissi wasn't a VP location though to at least give some encouragement to go in this direction.

[Gunnulf]

T73 Stalingrad

Not all roses though, the bear has awakened and has sharp teeth here. We had been contemplating a large assault on South Stalingrad this turn as a bit of a hail-mary but that sortie is scrubbed and we will be fully on the defensive here now. One fight holds on the flank but in the centre its tough to argue with 5/6 rifle corps and with that he can take any hex he wants really, especially in the open, and we revisit our staff's contingency plans for potential fall back lines (if the boss will allow it...). At least we are not relying on flaky allies for defence of the flanks, but they still wouldn't hold forever against a strong assault and breakthrough...

[Gunnulf]

Mid-Nov42 comparison

As current game is at 15th Nov 42, just a few days from the 19th Nov 42 Stalingrad to Berlin scenario start I took a moment to compare the situations and some interesting things going on. Well, I thought so at least, especially just as it seems like the Soviet Stalingrad counter-offensive is starting to kick off...

Current game on left, Stalingrad scenario on the right.

For the Soviets the on map forces are almost identical at 5.7m men, though more in reserve gives him 400k higher total. Total tanks also pretty identical. Given how things played out in real life this is of course a bit of a scary omen. Many more airframes too, but the VVS has been very quiet all summer, trying not to feed the Luftwaffe aces maybe. However on the plus side artillery seems to have taken a beatdown with nearly 20k less barrels.

For the axis side the allies are mostly identical, as are artillery on map, tanks on map and aircraft on map so kudos to the scenario balancers on many key points!
It does seem like we have more panzers in the pools unused maybe. Not surprised the total airframes low as I was riding the bombers over the black sea pretty hard on naval ops and had quite high operational and flak losses in the process. Fighters ok though relatively.

However the big promising number is having a solid 600k extra troops compared to the Stalingrad scenario it seems, no doubt as we had a relatively easy ride in blizzard. Hopefully this, which equates to circa 36 full divisions strength on a rough back of beer mat calculation gives us a glimmer of hope, expecially if we can avoid losing 300k in some horrible disaster on the steppes, combined with the time/space we have being in some cases (but not all) of being 100-200miles east of the parallel reality. Finally as well chalked in the 'hope' column we have a HWM of 785 versus the Stalingrad scenario start of 674.

This might be tough to overcome no matter how well preserved the Red Army has been kept. There is also the before mentioned almost complete lack of Guards, which will no doubt start to change, but its hopefully going to be a cautionary tale for Soviets losing too much ground in 41 and not grimly winning it back at (almost) any cost that winter... Time will tell of course! Still not much more than about 1/3rd through the game really which is kinda crazy, but will be hanging on by fingernails in at least some places soon I'm sure.

[Gunnulf]

T74 Grozny

Solid victory against equal numbers which devastates another Soviet tank horde, but the German AFV losses are not inconsequential too. Momentum keeps driving 11 Armee forward and scouts from 16 Motorised get eyes on the suburbs of Grozny. Doesn't look very pretty, even in a layer of light crisp snow.
We are conscious of plans afoot at OKH to upgrade 11 Armee to Army Group Don. High honour indeed for what has been my favourite Army so far, however it does leave us with a bit of a command quandary pending. We have plenty of Army Groups, the shortage if anything is with Army Hqs, but we don't get a say in the matter. Obviously its a case of the game mirroring a real-time command need to help relieve Stalingrad that doesn't exist (yet). Given a choice I would cancel Army Group Don and keep 11 Armee but such is life. The solution will be to re-jig the quiet Army Group North Sector, some corps in the quietest sectors will report direct to AGN, 16 Armee will take over the Kalininn sector and 3 Panzer Armee is on route south ready to assume direct command of 11 Armee assets when the 'upgrade' happens.

[Gunnulf]

T74 Stalingrad

165k screaming Ruskies bear down on our huddled landsers and convinced them to vacate the area. Losses tolerable but surely it will only get worse and once again the Soviet armour is battered. But each Tank brigade started well under strength, and certainly are now.
Not in disaster territory yet but once again we mull over whether there are better places to spend the winter, but once again the boss over-rules us...

[Stamb]

Do leader's moto/infantry skills matter for a SU? For example if N. Gusev is bad at motorization - this tank brigades are performing not so good as they could?

[Gunnulf]

I thought yes that's the case, but I might be wrong, and certainly would help explain why the armour here is performing pretty poorly.

[AlbertN]

I believe it's down to the ground element and not the unit type. As per an AFV uses Mechanized rating and other stuff uses the Infantry rating. But not sure here!

[Gunnulf]

Yep, that was my understanding for sure. 3 or 4 fighting 7 or 8 makes quite a difference. The soviets need to make a conscious effort to put tank brigades and corps under what few reasonably decent mech leaders they have at this stage, but easier said than done for sure.

[loki100]

About 11A, it goes on a fun journey for the next few months. I left the corps reporting to AG Don (I think at the end of 1942 you have to have some in this relationship - it gets easier about May 43 when the command capacity all increases), it then becomes Army Detachment Kempf and then 8A, so returns as an Army level command in early 1943

[Gunnulf]

That's quite an identity crisis for sure I've taken a gamble that its going to be safer for some well supplied corps in very good terrain in AGN will do ok to miss this link in the command chain for a few months, but I'd rather down south to maximise the command rolls as its the main focus right now at least. AG Don taking over 3 Panzer, 3 Romanian and 8 Italian Armies plus an independent corps does allow Army Group B to shift north itself and command 6 Army, 4 Romanian and 2 Hungarian between Tambov and Kursk and give them better rolls too rather than the current AG Anton so overall the extra CC are welcome really.

T75 Grozny

Some active counterattacks directly in front of Grozny are a bit ominous. The Panzer divisions are a little low on fuel and CPP so hold back while the infantry step forward to establish a front line. So far our hopes of a supply bonanza from securing the railyard at Ordzhonikidze are not bearing any fruit. Its on its way to full repair, there is a FDB to give it a superdepot and the one at Maikop has been collapsed to avoid conflict, but so far no more than a trickle of trains arriving on the platform. If they don't pick up we will need to retire and consolidate. Maybe messing up something somewhere, or maybe there is just no chance to supply this far from home even in mild winter and we're on a fools errand. Its the only Army on supply priority 4 so no conflict there either.

[Gunnulf]

T76 Grozny

So, finally signs of a genuine Soviet build-up with battles on the outskirts of Grozny with best part of 80k Reds and strong Tank support hitting the infantry screen hard. Given the logistics shortages and also pressure from Cossack hordes on the northern end of the line we decide a tactical withdrawal to more defensible positions is prudent. No Grozny this time. Spring? Seems unlikely given the commitment now made by the Reds, but we console ourselves that part of the objective was to draw in reserves and divert from Soviet winter offensives elsewhere, and so far this has mostly been the case with quite low activity elsewhere so possibly this has been a success. Still plenty of winter to go and plenty that might go wrong down here if we test our luck too much... Perhaps an earlier start to the offensive in better weather could have reached Grozny and we held out too much hope on Stalingrad for too long, but we also needed to secure south of Maikop and Krasnodar ahead of winter too, and ultimately those efforts have made our immediate position more secure I feel allowing more forces to face east with economy of effort.

[Hardradi]

ORIGINAL: Gunnulf

That's quite an identity crisis for sure I've taken a gamble that its going to be safer for some well supplied corps in very good terrain in AGN will do ok to miss this link in the command chain for a few months, but I'd rather down south to maximise the command rolls as its the main focus right now at least.

Assuming my calcs are correct you can see the potential impact.

[Gunnulf]

Looks legit. Certainly the extra layer of CC is an advantage for the Axis that I'm keen to use to the maximum whenever possible, all those extra % add up to save the day over multiple battles

[Gunnulf]

T77 Caucasus

The southern end of the line stabilises a little, at least for now, however north of the Kuma river swarms of Soviet mobile columns cut off most of the Long Range Steppes Group. While they have bought a little time to bring in the Army group reserve corps to create a new shield there seems like not too much hope of affecting a rescue I think without risking a breakthrough in the centre too. These will potentially be the first units lost in the campaign if we can't break them out. 2 Italian divisions not the biggest disaster in the grand scheme of things but the Slovaks are useful troops.

[Gunnulf]

T77 Stalingrad

Bit early to predict no disaster in front of Stalingrad but at least so far the line is proving it can hold, even against a pretty determined assault. Just about anyway...! While supplies are still below the flow we would hope for we have been able to rotate out some divisions at 8k manpower for full strength fresh units from quieter sectore. And reassuring that the Luftwaffe is also able to provide effective cover still.