T76 – 29 November 1942
Blizzards pretty much everywhere north of Rostov, ground a mix of light and heavy snow.
Really only one event mattered, finally committed all of 4 Pzr A to an attack on Grozny. Its been fully isolated for 2 turns and in poor supply for a while.
Which creates a series of decisions. The wider Soviet offensive is not making many gains but its pressed me firmly onto the defensive. I might, but its unlikely, be able to add the VP city on the Caspian but I think thats unlikely – not least the screen to the north is being hard pressed by fresh Soviet formations.
So essentially I can cash in my HWM and go for a late 1944 win (always the most plausible) or gamble on pushing it a bit higher.
Tula is at risk (but whenever I lose it I remain +6 on the time bonus exchange) and so is Voronezh (where I have +6 on my side but if I hold it to T82 then I start to gain on the trade). Outside the Caucasus its an easy choice – I've lost the strategic initiative, in the Caucasus need to decide whether the best plan is to retreat towards Maikop now or gamble.
But if I lose Tula then any more gains in the south are meaningless (for the HWM).
One important part to my short term planning is I am due a lot of reinforcements over the next set of turns, seems that E-Adolf thinks I may need them.
Also, even where they win, the Soviets are taking heavy losses
Despite this both AGC and AGB are under severe pressure for the moment. Pull back around Tula, I had a good line in places but I can't drive off the Soviet formations that have pushed into the gaps.
Start to defend in Corps level stacks to deny the Soviets options.
The attack towards Smolensk is probably a one-off but not sure. I doubt they have many more first rate units than they have committed to the Tula-Voronezh battles but that could become a nasty surprise.
Around Lipetsk-Voronezh most Soviet attacks were heavy defeats but they managed a significant break out directly east of Voronezh. Pulled back 4A, need to free up more of 2PzrA, in an emergency can use 48 Pzr Corps (commanded by 1 PzrA) which is currently holding the Don bend. No sustained Soviet effort here but I really don't want to use my last reserve and feasibly risk Rostov.
Basically, the Soviets have paid a high price but have convinced that the Tambov offensive is over. The threat is that one of these thrusts escalates into a clear breakout. But they only have a few turns to achieve that as I can fill out the gaps fairly soon in coming turns as fresh units arrive.
They are paying a huge price, even where they win and especially where an attack fails
Their combat losses and the Grozny pocket means their on map numbers staying static.
They are running down the last manpower dump
Not looked at trucks for a while. Over 95% truck/unit looks good but have around 12% then pulled into the freight system.
Just for interest, we've created this as a composite image with matching Soviet data (as close as possible).
Supply traces for AGC and B. Not too bad, and Orel has become the main hub for AGC.
AGA is an odd mix of the neat (4PzrA) and rather long (the forces screening the Caucasus) – am trying to improve the rail net here.
Elsewhere 2 FBD form the basis of super depots, and another one has moved back West to fill out the few gaps in the border regions, especially around Lviv.
Edited to correct turn number in the title
