The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

[obvert]

Have you spotted any Glens around Sydney? Does he know your carriers are there?

The waiting does seem like something more is up. But it could be he thinks you'll bring them out if he masses this kind of assault, and possibly that is the main goal.

[GreyJoy]

I already have all the Aleutinas. Many bases are well built up, full of fuel and supplies and with AS present. I have deployed there few US BNs, base forces and CD units. As soon as i understand the situation in SOPAC i'll start to move there more subs and surface forces (at the moment i have 10 subs there, 1 CL and 10 DDs)m

No glens around sydney so far...he may be up to something more...but i still don't understand what...if he invades oz i think it's too late for him...and too risky...

[Alfred]

GreyJoy,

Not for the first time you have been given inaccurate advice.

If the game continues into 1946, from a victory determination perspective, two factors will come into play.

1. If the game ends due to reaching the end date, IOW no side has achieved a 2:1 auto victory, then the absolutely best result which an Allied player can achieve is a DRAW. A Japanese minor victory would be very much on the cards and even a major Japanese victory could be the result.

2. If the Allied player achieves an auto victory (ie 2:1 result) any time after 31 August 1945, the absolute best result possible is a MINOR victory. Again a draw would be a distinct possibility and even a Japanese minor victory might arise.

Putting aside the victory conditions attached to the game, any Japanese player who survives until 1946 is entitled to consider that they have actually won the game irrespective of what the somewhat arbitrary use of VPs might signify.

Alfred

[dekwik]

That's not to say that time ISN'T on your side, but the allies have to pick up the tempo eventually.

If I was Rader I'm pretty sure I wouldn't be leaving those 6 (?) divisions on Tulagi to wither on the vine. You can count on that invasion happening soon. I'm not sure you can count on more invasion aggression than that though. Other than killing a few more "dog faces and bone heads" (and there's many many more on the way) he just becomes deeper invested. If I was him I'd be feeling like it's time to dig in- pretty much everywhere. The more "noise" he can make in the Solomons in the next 3 months while actually pulling his troops back a bit, the better for Japan.

The KB is destined to die at the hands of Allied Fleet CV's. Just possibly, it gets bombed to a wreck in port in late '45, but then that's a great Japanese result. Nobody would advise you to pursue the KB within a hot search area, with numerous enemy bases, LBA etc. If you don't feel assured of an even exchange or better, then that's a bad idea. But at some point, and I think sooner than later (Essex class coming soon) you should still consider the option of taking on the KB. Any time you can deliver 350 allied attack planes at within 300 miles of the KB, the Japanese fleet CV's are going to take major losses. The worst allied results seem to occur when the Admiral is trying to AVOID combat.

Having said that, I agree the fleet in being has a lot of value too. If you think Rader is audacious enough to raid Sydney again (and I think he is!) maybe there's a less obvious Port to disband the allied CVs in? There's no great reason to be in Sydney unless you're repairing-upgrading.

Just another 2 cents.....[:D]

[Cribtop]

GreyJoy,

I have spent the last two weeks reading your AAR from the beginning and only now have caught up. The desperate battles, the early defeats, the bloody encounters with "pucker level" casualties for both sides, the massacre of the Queen's English...

What can I say. Very entertaining stuff. You ignored some very good advice early on but are starting to get a handle on things at last in the Solomons. Continue to fight hard, brave warrior! Good luck in the huge battle to come in the Solomons. A wise man once told me that lack of replacements mean the Allies should seek naval attrition against the IJN at all times. I would thus intelligently accept battle if he comes for you in the Solomons. Also, personally I'd be more aggressive in India and would seek a third front at nygiants59 suggested.

I salute your courage.

PS I love the George RR Martin books, too. Only book series where you read a riveting scene with true fear because there's no "but this is a main character, so of course he/she lives..." factor.

[jmalter]

GreyJoy,

do you get the sense that Rader is waiting for you to launch a serious land/sea/air effort against his Tulagi LCUs, as a trigger event to launch his major Solomons attack?

seems to me he's had all his assets in place & ready to go for awhile now, but (IIRC) you haven't targeted Tulagi for weeks. it's like he's waiting to pounce on the instant you launch against Tulagi. by not attacking, you've kept your eye on the ball, & perhaps gained an advantage by controlling the pace of his operations. i don't think you need bother w/ his Tulagi boys for months yet.

also, what Cribtop said ('cept that i need someone to tell me that GRRMv5 is rilly great!)

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

GreyJoy,

Not for the first time you have been given inaccurate advice.

Putting aside the victory conditions attached to the game, any Japanese player who survives until 1946 is entitled to consider that they have actually won the game irrespective of what the somewhat arbitrary use of VPs might signify.

Alfred

Not in scen #2. Greyjoy is a first timer, playing a scenario greatly weighted to to the Japanese player especially when the Japanese player is a top tier player. The mere fact that he avoided AV in 1942 is in my opinion already a decisive victory for him. It won't make much of a difference to me what the final victory result is. I will let him know if I think he won or not....

Look at his losses so far and his position. Inaccurate advice would be for the rest of us to push him into trying the near impossible and get his ass handed to him.

[JeffroK]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: Alfred

GreyJoy,

Not for the first time you have been given inaccurate advice.

Putting aside the victory conditions attached to the game, any Japanese player who survives until 1946 is entitled to consider that they have actually won the game irrespective of what the somewhat arbitrary use of VPs might signify.

Alfred

Not in scen #2. Greyjoy is a first timer, playing a scenario greatly weighted to to the Japanese player especially when the Japanese player is a top tier player. The mere fact that he avoided AV in 1942 is in my opinion already a decisive victory for him. It won't make much of a difference to me what the final victory result is. I will let him know if I think he won or not....

Look at his losses so far and his position. Inaccurate advice would be for the rest of us to push him into trying the near impossible and get his ass handed to him.

ditto, he's done a bloody good job.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

GreyJoy,

Not for the first time you have been given inaccurate advice.

If the game continues into 1946, from a victory determination perspective, two factors will come into play.

1. If the game ends due to reaching the end date, IOW no side has achieved a 2:1 auto victory, then the absolutely best result which an Allied player can achieve is a DRAW. A Japanese minor victory would be very much on the cards and even a major Japanese victory could be the result.

2. If the Allied player achieves an auto victory (ie 2:1 result) any time after 31 August 1945, the absolute best result possible is a MINOR victory. Again a draw would be a distinct possibility and even a Japanese minor victory might arise.

Putting aside the victory conditions attached to the game, any Japanese player who survives until 1946 is entitled to consider that they have actually won the game irrespective of what the somewhat arbitrary use of VPs might signify.

Alfred

Hello Alfred,

in reply to you and the others who posted about this matter...

Me and Rader aren't really playin for auto victory or victory points....we both agreed about that at the beginning of our game. And for what concerns who really wins this match i do think Japan has already "won" its war doing defenetly better that RL japan, conquering the whole Asian continent and kicking allied arse all around the pacific for more than 16 months.
For what concerns "my game"...i am happy and i think i "won" my personal game just by surviving the Indian struggle in 1942... so i think we are both winners[:D]

The next months will probably show if i've learned enough to move from a merely defensive posture to an offensive one...but i don't think no one can argue that Rader hasn't won his personal game.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: dekwik

That's not to say that time ISN'T on your side, but the allies have to pick up the tempo eventually.

If I was Rader I'm pretty sure I wouldn't be leaving those 6 (?) divisions on Tulagi to wither on the vine. You can count on that invasion happening soon. I'm not sure you can count on more invasion aggression than that though. Other than killing a few more "dog faces and bone heads" (and there's many many more on the way) he just becomes deeper invested. If I was him I'd be feeling like it's time to dig in- pretty much everywhere. The more "noise" he can make in the Solomons in the next 3 months while actually pulling his troops back a bit, the better for Japan.

The KB is destined to die at the hands of Allied Fleet CV's. Just possibly, it gets bombed to a wreck in port in late '45, but then that's a great Japanese result. Nobody would advise you to pursue the KB within a hot search area, with numerous enemy bases, LBA etc. If you don't feel assured of an even exchange or better, then that's a bad idea. But at some point, and I think sooner than later (Essex class coming soon) you should still consider the option of taking on the KB. Any time you can deliver 350 allied attack planes at within 300 miles of the KB, the Japanese fleet CV's are going to take major losses. The worst allied results seem to occur when the Admiral is trying to AVOID combat.

Having said that, I agree the fleet in being has a lot of value too. If you think Rader is audacious enough to raid Sydney again (and I think he is!) maybe there's a less obvious Port to disband the allied CVs in? There's no great reason to be in Sydney unless you're repairing-upgrading.

Just another 2 cents.....[:D]

Yup, i'm counting on the fact that Rader "must", sooner or later, try to save those 80k japanese stuck at Tulagi. As far as i can tell he has never tried to resupply them or to evacuate them, nor by sea or by land. After the first naval battles of Jan he has limited himself to create a "circle" of strong air bases around Tulagi for the next 3 months, leaving his units there to rot...I cannot think he can simply abbandon them in my hands...it's a whole army!!
I did my best to reinforce Tulagi....but i won't committ more units there....now with all those bases at 1 hex far from it it would be too dangerous to try to bring more big units there...don't wanna risk a massive naval disaster...not now

I'm considering to move my CVs back to Melbourne...just to be safer[:)] thanks!

[GreyJoy]

Oh, and i think i cannot go and look for the KB right now. He's keeping his KB right in the middle of a circle of air bases where he has more than 1500 LBAs...cannot think to fight the whole KB with my 6 CVs still equipped with wildcats...not under these circumstances. I wanna wait for him to come out (if he ever does...)....my goal is to get slowly back the controll of the skies over the Solomons and only then i will consider a carrier battle close to my LBAs....

Cribtop, thanks for coming in and for taking the time to read this AAR. I'm glad you enjoined it[:)]...i'm doing my best...

Jmalter,...well, have to admit that i never felt Rader was waiting for my move...he has always leaded the "dance" in this game and i think even in this strange "status quo" he's planning something...probably he's simply massing a massive amphib landing that will grant him a complete victory...he always uses the hammer...and at Tulagi i think it's the only time where he didn't use the hammer...and he got slapped in the face .... my guess is that he will land at the very same time at Tassa, Tulagi and Lunga with everything he has at hand in Sopac, after a naval bombardment that will soften my defences and close my air bases...so he will be free to use his air forces to keep my base closes and those skies forbidden to my planes... i will only count of the LCUs i based there...on mines, on PTs and on supplies...

And yes, i do believe i don't have to care much now about attacking his LCUs at Tulagi...i will only burn supplies and reveal my LCUs composition...better to wait fort his move[;)]

Again guys...thanks!!...as soon as the vacations will be over i'll try to get this AAR back to the previous quality standards (with maps and a "better" english)...

[JeffroK]

Are your CV essential to your defense?

If not, they are wasting their time sitting in harbour.

Have a good look via recce of raders set up, can you make a hit or two on his perimeter which mich see him have to react.

Make him wonder what you are up to for a change.

[Canoerebel]

GreyJoy's carriers aren't wasting time sitting in port.  As long as rader doesn't know where they are he has to assume they could turn up any place at any time.  He will worry about them and that will slow down his pace of operations as he takes more care everywhere.  GreyJoy's carriers are right where they need to be.

[GreyJoy]

I agree with CR here. I wanna have my CVs at hand in case he does something really crazy...and att the same time i like the idea Rader doesn't know where they are stationed...

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

GreyJoy's carriers aren't wasting time sitting in port.  As long as rader doesn't know where they are he has to assume they could turn up any place at any time.  He will worry about them and that will slow down his pace of operations as he takes more care everywhere.  GreyJoy's carriers are right where they need to be.

I am with Dan on this one. Radar knows he is dealing with a closing window of opportunity before the F6F-3's appear. Risking a carrier engagement at this point when the USN CV air groups are just weeks away from becoming a far more powerful adversary would be playing right into Radar's hands. I would wait for the air groups to upgrade and at least until you get several VF-R groups equipped. The replacement carriers can be a game changer allowing teh Allied player to kep his CV's in action for several days. Not an option the Japan player has available

[crsutton]

Greyjoy, I found that Tongapatau or Eua just SE of Sulva are great little bases to hide ships on occasion. Just pick one or the other and build it up. In the dark days I moved my ships around but built up Tongapatau and dumped some fuel there for another option. There are a couple of other good small bases in that chain that will work just as well. It was worth the expenditure of a small base force and an engineer unit. He is less likely to scout there than than the more obvious locations.

[Cribtop]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Cribtop, thanks for coming in and for taking the time to read this AAR. I'm glad you enjoined it[:)]...i'm doing my best...

So awesome that the master favors me with a Greyjoyism in responding to a post in which I refer to Greyjoyisms. You know, I am a lawyer so I COULD enjoin this thread, not that I would deprive the world of such entertainment of course! [&o][&o][:D][:D]

[GreyJoy]

Thx crsutton! I'll look for those bases. I know i have developed a number of bases around Suva but can't remember the names right now (and you all know i'm not good with names )
However now that i'm very close to get my groups upgraded with hellcats i won't risk my CVs...if needed i'll move their air groups on land and use them, but the CVs will stay safely in port untill they can fly hellcats...obviously if he moves towards Sydney looking for a decisive battle i'll move them in and try to engage the KB under my LBA CAP umbrella of SE OZ...but be sure i won't be hunting the KB in the Solomons!! He has far too much LBA CAP there!

On the 31st i'm coming back home and the game will get a again a decent pace! Can't wait!

[crsutton]

Not a bad plan. I used my hellcats from bases all the time and kept my carriers safe. One nice feature is that in a few months you will get three spare carrier trained fighter groups (36 plane). They really do make a nice reserve. You will be soon getting a flood of dauntless bombers and the new helldiver. After that the prospect of a carrier fight looks good. Just bear in mind that a production ace like Rader can accelerate his carriers to the point where he might have three new Unryus and two new Taiho class carriers by the turn of the year.

[CaptBeefheart]

Does anyone know about IJA replacement levels in Scen 2? Would it be easy for him to replace those 5 divs on Tulagi if he elected to abandon them to the sharks?

Also, GreyJoy, how are preparations for the big invasion of India coming along?

Cheers,
CC