MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: Centuur

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

Peter,

I am not sure about your proposal to move the units out of Stalino. Only one of them is organized (the orange dot to the left of the # of units in hex number indicates the unit is disorganized).

I thought about "run away" - it was my first instinct - but I believe the USSR can build a strong line to the north and another to the south. My guess is that more units can be saved this way. But of course it depends on where the Germans attack and what their die rolls are.

What was the deciding factor for me was the weakness of the Germans in the south. They can't even overrun a single AA unit alone in a clear hex. If they take the gifts, in the south I don't think they can make more than 1 other attack.

The German forces in the north are much more fearsome. But even there the armor units are rather few.

If the Germans attack any of the stronger hexes (11+ factors), they risk a bad die roll which could disorganize some of their best units.

The Stuka can only ground strike one clear hex with mechanized/motorized units. That is a 50-50 proposition. They might want to use that unit for ground support. Even if they succeed and disorganize 1 unit, that was a unit that would die anyway if no attempt is made to drag his butt out of the fire.

But, yeah, if the Germans go for risky attacks and roll well, things could get even messier than they are now. But if the Germans make those attacks and fail, ... well, then the defense will be much easier.

By the way, I consider this 'tactic' to be offering your opponent more than he can safely bite off and swallow. If he declines, then the USSR gains a lot (vis-a-vis running away immediately). But if he accepts, then all is in the hands of the Dice Gods.

I didn't see that disorganised unit in Stalino. It is something which I tend to miss, probably due to the fact that I'm a little colorblind. That changes things indeed. In that case I would probably still move the two other units out into the other hex, to prevent an attack on Kharkov (or at least make it more difficult)
The problem I'm having with putting both Koniev and Timoshenko so close to eachother on the front is that I would be tempted as the Germans to try to take them both out. If that succeeds, the USSR are in even deeper trouble that they are in now. It is risky, but if the attack on Kharkov succeeds, it means the end of two USSR HQ's. That's too much. What's the word: don't risk the most terrible result possible, if you can't afford it? That is something which is always used on attacking, but is often disregarded when defending.
The turn is young and probably very, very long. I really think the USSR can't afford a "stand and fight" position around the Don.

There are actually 2 units disorganized in Stalino, so it's only the top unit in the "clean" image that can move. I don't think Steve was suggesting both Koniev and Timoshenko move to Kharkov. I think he suggested that Koniev go to the forest now occupied by Timoshenko, and Timoshenko moves to Kharkov.

Yes.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

I also have the Sverdlovsk MIL I can rail to the front somewhere . . . I'm thinking Stavropol in case Yeremenko and his defense doesn't hold.

There are a dozen good places that unit could move to. For instance, railing him to Timoshenko should relieve the concern Peter has about being able to rail out Koniev next turn if needs be.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Petsamo/Murmansk:

The Axis can't rail units up the road so until they send an HQ and army walking up, this area is under no threat for the foreseeable future. No further units need to go here. The CW INF already in place in Finland can march further south every turn down the road until the Finns attack it or it reaches a port on the Baltic (and waits for reinforcements).


Archangel:

Do not pull out units (and especially not an HQ) from Denmark to plug a force in here. Whether or not to reinforce it this turn or next depends on the Axis advances towards the city.

Send Eisenhower this turn, if you have to send anyone, and throw in 2 American MIL this turn or next turn (might as well make them useful now you've built them!) as sealift permits, ideally using the white-print one, if available. Eisenhower can then leave once both US MIL are in as they will subsequently always satisfy the "starting the step" portion of the non-cooperation rule.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

I also have the Sverdlovsk MIL I can rail to the front somewhere . . . I'm thinking Stavropol in case Yeremenko and his defense doesn't hold.

There are a dozen good places that unit could move to. For instance, railing him to Timoshenko should relieve the concern Peter has about being able to rail out Koniev next turn if needs be.

I like this idea. I think I'll do that instead of Stavropol.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Another update: I'll be able to evacuate Denmark this turn, but I'll only be able to add 1 unit to Petsamo this turn. I'll need to wait until next turn to get Archangel covered. Unless I use Eisenhower, and I can move him into position for that and decide if it's necessary later in the turn.

Again: don't evacuate this turn. This will mean freeing Axis units to strengthen defenses on the coast of France. Get another invasion on the way in France to upset German defenses. If they don't react enough, next turn you put another invasion somewhere on the mainland too. You must become a nuisance to the Axis now, not later.
Stalin: "Where is that second front. It should come NOW, not later. Now it are only the brave Soviet comrades who get killed, etc. etc. Also: where are the resources the CW and the USA should send to us. We need lend lease..."

I could probably mount an invasion of France using a Marine and 2 Divisions next impulse, but I have no way to expand once on land, since I won't have a port available and don't have follow-up forces to invade any hexes that are freed up by defenders moving to lock this unit into its hex.

[composer99]

As long as you have an HQ, you can debark it into any friendly hex; you can then debark any other units onto the HQ.

[composer99]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: composer99

Petsamo/Murmansk:

The Axis can't rail units up the road so until they send an HQ and army walking up, this area is under no threat for the foreseeable future. No further units need to go here. The CW INF already in place in Finland can march further south every turn down the road until the Finns attack it or it reaches a port on the Baltic (and waits for reinforcements).


Archangel:

Do not pull out units (and especially not an HQ) from Denmark to plug a force in here. Whether or not to reinforce it this turn or next depends on the Axis advances towards the city.

Send Eisenhower this turn, if you have to send anyone, and throw in 2 American MIL this turn or next turn (might as well make them useful now you've built them!) as sealift permits, ideally using the white-print one, if available. Eisenhower can then leave once both US MIL are in as they will subsequently always satisfy the "starting the step" portion of the non-cooperation rule.

Bah. Throw an American MIL into Murmansk to keep the Finns away.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

As long as you have an HQ, you can debark it into any friendly hex; you can then debark any other units onto the HQ.

I know. I don't have one.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: composer99

Petsamo/Murmansk:

The Axis can't rail units up the road so until they send an HQ and army walking up, this area is under no threat for the foreseeable future. No further units need to go here. The CW INF already in place in Finland can march further south every turn down the road until the Finns attack it or it reaches a port on the Baltic (and waits for reinforcements).


Archangel:

Do not pull out units (and especially not an HQ) from Denmark to plug a force in here. Whether or not to reinforce it this turn or next depends on the Axis advances towards the city.

Send Eisenhower this turn, if you have to send anyone, and throw in 2 American MIL this turn or next turn (might as well make them useful now you've built them!) as sealift permits, ideally using the white-print one, if available. Eisenhower can then leave once both US MIL are in as they will subsequently always satisfy the "starting the step" portion of the non-cooperation rule.

Bah. Throw an American MIL into Murmansk to keep the Finns away.

American MIL are not going to be available for duty in Murmansk this turn. I just don't have the sealift, even using CW units, until next turn to:

1. Get the Marine into the UK
2. Mount an invasion of France
3. Deliver Eisenhower to Archangel
4. Get MacArthur to the UK
5. Get a MIL to Archangel
(6. Potentially evacuate Denmark)
7. Get an HQ (which I don't have available) to France
8. Get a GARR to the Azores as a replacement for MacArthur

Even if I eliminate #6, the majority of the available sealift is from CW units with a range of 3. It's going to take 2 Land/Combined impulses to get Eisenhower to that sealift, a 3rd to get him to the Arctic and dbark him into Archangel. It would take 3 CW Naval impulses to get a MIL from the USA to Liverpool and then into the Arctic, and a 4th to Debark him. This is remotely possible, except that the USA needs to take another Naval at the same time as the CW in order to set up the Convoys. That takes us to impulse 8 or 10. At that point, the turn may be near finished. In 1940, J/A lasted only 11 impulses.

Next turn is a different story. I'll have more sealift.

[Red Prince]

Steve, am I to assume that I need to rebase an ATR to Krasnodar at the end of this impulse?

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Steve, am I to assume that I need to rebase an ATR to Krasnodar at the end of this impulse?

Not really necessary.

The USSR is on the defensive (duh). There aren't going to be any paradrops. If the Para lives it will probably part of the defensive line in the mountains southeast of where it is now. The ATR should be centrally placed so it can do something useful later in the turn. While it might be able to do something useful right now, I suspect that there will be an even more crying need for it later.

If you are going with what I suggested, it might be helpful to post a screen shot of that before committing to it. Other readers might see some glaring omission that I missed.

[Red Prince]

By the way, one point of this picture was to show that there are units that can Isolate the INF if it tries to move south down the Arctic Highway each turn. Then, unless both Petsamo and Murmansk have coverage, one of them will end up falling back into German hands.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Steve, am I to assume that I need to rebase an ATR to Krasnodar at the end of this impulse?

Not really necessary.

The USSR is on the defensive (duh). There aren't going to be any paradrops. If the Para lives it will probably part of the defensive line in the mountains southeast of where it is now. The ATR should be centrally placed so it can do something useful later in the turn. While it might be able to do something useful right now, I suspect that there will be an even more crying need for it later.

If you are going with what I suggested, it might be helpful to post a screen shot of that before committing to it. Other readers might see some glaring omission that I missed.

Okay. I thought you were aiming to get a drop on Odessa or Constanta or something like that, in order to put the German lines OOS or take back a city for the Soviets.

I will post a shot of what you've created. It looks a little nerve-wracking with a lot of MECH stacked together in the south near Kharkov. In the North, either Vologda or Yaraslov is going to fall on Impulse #5, unless a unit railed to one of these. That opens up the back door to Moscow, and with all of those fast units up North, I worry about the Soviets getting surrounded near the Don. I don't know if there is any way around it, though.
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Edit: The PARA isn't in Krasnodar yet because the Air Transport phase hasn't happened yet.
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2nd Edit: If they desired it, the Soviets could make a 40:6 BlitZ attack on the German LII MECH west of Kharkov here. That's 6:1 with a 67% chance at 7:1 odds. Unfortunately, the Germans could add some Ground Support to make it a 40:11 attack, and that's 3:1 with a 64% shot at 4:1 odds. The Blitz Bonus rules make this a +1 attack for the Soviets. That would be great at 6:1, but doesn't help them enough if the Germans get Ground Support on the hex.

[Red Prince]

At this point, so early in the turn, I'm thinking that Ground Support should only be used if it can drop the odds to a 4:1 Assault or worse . . . 3:1 if there are any positive die roll modifiers. This assumes it can disorganize a large number of Germans, say 9-10 units.

[Red Prince]

I was just checking out a form I don't think I've shown yet: the Partisan Numbers and Probabilities Form

I started collecting a few hexes in Finland for the CW, though I don't intend to move down the Arctic Highway. I was actually checking to see what kind of numbers the Axis was facing, when I noticed that suddenly there was a big 20% chance of Partisans in Finland. I can kill that by moving the unit back 1 hex, which leaves no hexes in which Partisans can arrive.

[Red Prince]

With this setup, I'd end the impulse by rebasing the LND from Bryansk to Voronezh and the LND/ATR from Gorki to Krasnodar.

This should offer a lot of potential Ground Support to the southern front, while still leaving a little for the failing north (there's another LND/ATR in Moscow). It also leaves the threat open of a Paradrop on any of the hexes up to the line shown below. Even if no attack is intended, Germany can't ignore the threat.

[Red Prince]

It came to me that during HQ Reorganization Timoshenko (who is not going to leave Kharkov again, and will probably be killed soon), he could reorganize one of the units in Stalino and the Sverdlovsk MIL that railed to the hex Koniev now occupies. With the multi-factory stack bonus in Stalino and only 1 unit disorganized, that leaves Stalino with no positive die roll modifiers, and it also allows the Sverdlovsk MIL to pull back if that seems useful. Or it could trade places with the Kharkov MIL.

Just a thought. On the other hand, Timoshenko is likely to still be able to escape for another impulse or two . . . maybe . . . if he doesn't suffer a Ground Strike . . .

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Steve, am I to assume that I need to rebase an ATR to Krasnodar at the end of this impulse?

Not really necessary.

The USSR is on the defensive (duh). There aren't going to be any paradrops. If the Para lives it will probably part of the defensive line in the mountains southeast of where it is now. The ATR should be centrally placed so it can do something useful later in the turn. While it might be able to do something useful right now, I suspect that there will be an even more crying need for it later.

If you are going with what I suggested, it might be helpful to post a screen shot of that before committing to it. Other readers might see some glaring omission that I missed.

Okay. I thought you were aiming to get a drop on Odessa or Constanta or something like that, in order to put the German lines OOS or take back a city for the Soviets.

I will post a shot of what you've created. It looks a little nerve-wracking with a lot of MECH stacked together in the south near Kharkov. In the North, either Vologda or Yaraslov is going to fall on Impulse #5, unless a unit railed to one of these. That opens up the back door to Moscow, and with all of those fast units up North, I worry about the Soviets getting surrounded near the Don. I don't know if there is any way around it, though.
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Edit: The PARA isn't in Krasnodar yet because the Air Transport phase hasn't happened yet.
-----
2nd Edit: If they desired it, the Soviets could make a 40:6 BlitZ attack on the German LII MECH west of Kharkov here. That's 6:1 with a 67% chance at 7:1 odds. Unfortunately, the Germans could add some Ground Support to make it a 40:11 attack, and that's 3:1 with a 64% shot at 4:1 odds. The Blitz Bonus rules make this a +1 attack for the Soviets. That would be great at 6:1, but doesn't help them enough if the Germans get Ground Support on the hex.

Rats. I had missed that the 2-6 armor could make the attack on the AA a blitz.

The Stalino Mil has to go to the hex NE of Kiev, accompanied by the AA.

Maybe the AA can be saved instead - moving to Kiev. But that is only if the Germans have no unit capable of overrunning the Stalino Mil alone in the hex after it is disorganized by a ground strike. The German 8-6 Mech can't make it and neither can Rundstedt. But I don't know what is under some of the other units.

The important hex the USSR has to keep clear of enemy ZOC is the one SW of Bryansk. That will let 2 corps escape unless the Germans ground strike/attack them.

The Vologda unit has to move to Yaroslavl. From there it should be able stay a live for another impulse or two.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

With this setup, I'd end the impulse by rebasing the LND from Bryansk to Voronezh and the LND/ATR from Gorki to Krasnodar.

This should offer a lot of potential Ground Support to the southern front, while still leaving a little for the failing north (there's another LND/ATR in Moscow). It also leaves the threat open of a Paradrop on any of the hexes up to the line shown below. Even if no attack is intended, Germany can't ignore the threat.

No. How do you feel about the 5-3 Inf down there in Persia defending Baku? Should we just take him off the map? Well, the 5-3 Para has the same capabilities plus a few more as a defender (e.g., it can be air transported).

Germany has multiple rail lines for tracing supply back to Germany. Taking out one of them has no effect on their supply. The para will be OOS and easy to kill whenever the Germans decide to do so. If it moves after it drops in, it will be both OOS and disorganized.

The USSR needs everything it has for defense. There are NO attack opportunities. Anything that looks like an opportunity is bait.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

With this setup, I'd end the impulse by rebasing the LND from Bryansk to Voronezh and the LND/ATR from Gorki to Krasnodar.

This should offer a lot of potential Ground Support to the southern front, while still leaving a little for the failing north (there's another LND/ATR in Moscow). It also leaves the threat open of a Paradrop on any of the hexes up to the line shown below. Even if no attack is intended, Germany can't ignore the threat.

No. How do you feel about the 5-3 Inf down there in Persia defending Baku? Should we just take him off the map? Well, the 5-3 Para has the same capabilities plus a few more as a defender (e.g., it can be air transported).

Germany has multiple rail lines for tracing supply back to Germany. Taking out one of them has no effect on their supply. The para will be OOS and easy to kill whenever the Germans decide to do so. If it moves after it drops in, it will be both OOS and disorganized.

The USSR needs everything it has for defense. There are NO attack opportunities. Anything that looks like an opportunity is bait.

First, it's a 4-3 PARA unit. Second, the threat on Odessa, Constanta, Varna, and Cutatea-Alba should force a few units to either rail here or move off the line. Any of those targets would leave the PARA in supply. I'm not suggesting the attack actually be made, just that it look like it.